The U.S. and Israel launch a major attack on Iran

0:00Today on State of the World, the U.S. and Israel launch a major attack on Iran.

0:09You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories up close where they're happening. It's Saturday, February 28th. I'm Greg Dixon. The Pentagon is calling it Operation Epic Fury. The United States and Israel have launched major attacks against Iran, hitting Tehran and several other cities. Here's President Trump announcing the operation in a video posted to social media. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people. its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world.

0:59President Trump did not specify any immediate threat from Iran, but said the country had waged a, quote, unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. He said Iran continued to develop its nuclear program despite U.S. and Israeli attacks last June and negotiations this week, and said Iran was developing long-range missiles that could, quote, soon reach the American homeland. In a few minutes, we'll hear analysis on what this action could mean for the Iranian regime and the Iranian people. First, for details on the strike, we turn to NPR Pentagon correspondent Greg Myrie.

1:38He spoke to Scott Simon. What can you tell us about this military operation? Well, first of all, this is a massive operation, and that's based on the extent of the initial strikes and in the way President Trump is describing this. There was a lot of speculation beforehand whether he might opt for a short, sharp attack or a longer one. The initial impression is that the president chose to go very big. These strikes began after sunrise in Iran. Huge explosions rang out in the capital, Tehran. Iranians posted videos on social media that showed large plumes of thick smoke. There are preliminary reports of strikes in many parts of Iran, though we don't have word on the full extent of damage on specific targets like the country's nuclear facilities.

2:27Greg, did the president offer any details about the operation itself? A bit. He said the U.S. would destroy Iran's missile program and its navy. So these are parts of the Iranian military that could hit U.S. ships or military bases in the region. So it makes sense that they'd be a priority in the early days of the campaign. Now, he also said Iran was rebuilding its nuclear program, the same one he said the U.S. obliterated last year. And nuclear analysts have said they haven't seen that rebuilding, but it's something President Trump keeps citing. What does Iran say today? Yeah, the foreign ministry calls the airstrikes a gross violation of its national sovereignty.

3:10The statement said the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes hit both military and civilian targets. Iran said it will defend itself, adding that schools and universities will be closed, and it warned Iranians to avoid crowded areas. Before the strikes began, the president didn't say much about what his ultimate goal might be in Iran, but that's changed today, hasn't it? Yeah, that's right, Scott. And really the most striking part of his video came right near the end when he spoke directly to the Iranian people. He said, you know, they said, stay inside and shelter now. Bombs would be falling everywhere.

3:45But then he added, quote, when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. So this is really hugely significant. He's encouraging Iranians to directly confront the very same government that killed thousands of demonstrators in mass street protests just last month. Now, Trump is explicitly calling for regime change. He's not describing a limited operation, and he wants Iranians themselves to oust the Islamic clerical regime that's ruled for 47 years. One final point, though. We should stress that there's no sign the U.S.

4:23will send ground troops into Iran. And it's not clear how much the U.S. will weaken the government with air power alone. So at this stage, it's just impossible to say whether the leadership might be vulnerable to the kind of domestic uprising that Trump is calling for. Of course, the operation is just hours old, but is fighting spreading to other parts of the region? Yes, we've already seen that. Now, Israel has joined the air campaign against Iran and is coming under attack at home. Also, Iran is firing on U.S. military bases in the region. Video on social media shows a big explosion in Bahrain at or near the headquarters of the U.S.

5:035th Fleet. And Iran has fired at several other countries in the Gulf, according to multiple reports in these countries. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar. These countries are not directly involved in the attacks, but they do host U.S. bases. because Iran is apparently trying to draw them into the conflict as well. And Piers Gregg-Meirey, thanks so much. Sure thing, Scott. And we're going to turn now to Ali Vaiz, who is the Iran Project Director with the International Crisis Group. Thank you so much for being with us, sir.

5:33NPR Host:My pleasure. What's your reaction to all the news we're covering today? Look, my sense is that the U.S.-Israeli idea that bombing in Iran will somehow trigger a popular uprising could prove to be little more than wishful thinking. Of course, bombs can degrade infrastructure and can weaken capabilities and eliminate leaders, but they usually do not manufacture organized political alternatives. I think one has to remember that the Iranian public is unarmed, fragmented, and facing one of the most securitized states in the region. So even a weakened Islamic republic would still retain coercive institutions, the Revolutionary Guard, the intelligence agencies, the security forces that are built precisely for moments like this to endure.

6:22President Trump spoke directly to the Iranian people in his video this morning. Let's play a little. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. And at the same time, we're told Iranian media is posting images of burning buildings and dead children on social media saying this is how America is protecting the people of Iran. What's your assessment of how these messages are being received or will be received in Iran?

7:04NPR Host:Look, we saw this in the 12-day war last year that Israel launched and the U.S. joined briefly. Given how unpopular and detested this regime is, there was some initial happiness within the population that their tormentors were being targeted. But then when the casualty numbers started going up, the public opinion turned against the war. What are some of your concerns about consequences in the region as these attacks might stretch out for the next days or weeks? Well, we've already seen Iran targeting its neighbors, U.S. bases in the Gulf region and Israel. So this war has already turned into a regional conflagration.

7:49NPR Host:And if it continues further, it really risks destabilizing the region. And even if the U.S. gets what it wants, which is dismantling the Iranian state, given the fact that there is no viable organized alternative inside the country that can take over if this regime collapses, you risk turning a country of 92 million into a failed state, which would descend into civil strife and create the kind of instability, radicalization and refugee waves that would adversely affect the region and beyond. Iran has been retaliating. We've seen strikes on U.S. military bases in the Gulf. What other military options might the regime have?

8:32NPR Host:So, look, the Iranians over the years had developed capabilities precisely for a day like this, precisely to target U.S. naval assets and bases in the region. Their objective would be to survive and endure and continue to retaliate. They want to spill American blood in order to put pressure on President Trump domestically. They want to scare global markets and put pressure on energy exports out of that region in order to create an inflationary impact in the United States that would then push President Trump to back off. Those are some of its options. But again, at the end of the day, this is a game of endurance.

9:11NPR Host:And the most important question is who's going to blink first and take a step back. I'm struck by the fact that just yesterday, a key mediator who'd been working on the nuclear talks with the U.S. and Iran, said, quote, that a peace deal is within our reach. Why do you think that didn't happen? Well, the Omanis tried very hard to create common ground between Iran and the U.S. If President Trump wanted a fair deal, a deal in which he could make sure that Iran would not be able to acquire nuclear weapons, that deal was within reach. The foreign minister of Oman is right. But if President Trump was seeking maximalism in terms of his objectives and also Iranian capitulation, clearly that was never on the cards.

9:58NPR Host:And this is why he has opted for a military option, burning the Omanis for a second time, because it was also last year that in the middle of negotiations, President Trump decided to pull the plug and go for a military option. And in the time we have left, what do you see happening if the Iranian government begins to fall apart? Well, I'm afraid it would more likely look like Libya, in which you would see the country descend into civil strife. Because as I said, there is no organized opposition inside the country that could take over, or potentially you might end up with a military dictatorship in Iran.

10:40That was Ali Vaiz of the International Crisis Group speaking to Scott Simon. NPR's following developments to this story, you can get the latest at npr.org.

10:56That's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening.