The U.S. will allow Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles, will it change the war?

0:00This message comes from Workday, the enterprise AI platform with a deep understanding of your organization's context and guardrails. So every AI action is permission-aware, giving you the ability to get work done right. It's a new workday. Today on State of the World, the U.S. will allow Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles. Will it change the war?

0:25You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories, up close, where they're happening. I'm Greg Dixon. At a recent NATO summit, President Trump announced a rare move. The U.S. will share Patriot air defense technology with Ukraine. The Patriot is one of the most sought-after weapons in the world, considered among the most effective systems for shooting down incoming threats in the sky. However, the system is difficult to produce, so it takes a long time to get production going. And it's expensive. So what will this actually mean in Ukraine's war with Russia?

1:03We're going to hear from Seth Jones. He's the president of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He spoke to NPR's Don Gagne. Let's start with the Patriot missile system itself. What are its capabilities and why is it so important for countries like Ukraine? The Patriot is a system that has advanced radar and, most important for Ukraine, has interceptors on it that can target incoming Russian ballistic and cruise missiles. It's not ideal for drones, but it is great for incoming Russian missiles. The problem is there aren't enough Patriots and there aren't enough Patriot interceptors right now.

1:46So a lot is getting through Ukrainian defenses and striking military and civilian infrastructure. So what's the significance of Trump's announcement that Ukraine will be granted a license to produce the missile interceptors? Well, there is certainly a psychological boost to the U.S. president helping the Ukrainians. It was not long ago in February of 2025 where the Oval Office meeting degenerated in front of the cameras. The other issue is if and when the Ukrainians can actually start producing patriots, it will be very helpful for the defense of Ukrainian cities, military and civilian targets.

2:30It's the challenge, of course, that it is likely to take a year or more, depending on how quickly the Ukrainians are able to get some of the key supply chain components and then build the systems. Okay, well, let's talk about that production process. What does it take to produce the various components of the Patriot missile system? It feels like a heavy lift. It is a heavy lift. What this is going to require is building the infrastructure for many of these components from solid rocket motors to seekers to the radar systems. And then you have to get a range of very complex components from across the globe.

3:10I think what people don't fully understand is the supply chain is dozens, if not hundreds of companies. So just to be clear, does the license to build patriots actually allow you to build everything you need to actually have a patriot? No. Getting the license to build the Patriot will come down to what components, including sensitive components of the Patriot, will the U.S. allow the Ukrainians to have and which parts they will not provide the tech transfers for. There's going to be a big State Department discussion about sensitivity of some components that could get in the hands of the Russians and, of course, if the Russians get it, the Chinese.

3:55The licenses being granted to Ukraine, how rare is that in and of itself? What other countries have gotten this same kind of licensing permission from the U.S.? Well, the licensing for a Patriot is relatively rare. One of the few countries that has gotten a full Patriot license is Japan. There's also an older version of the Patriot that is built in Germany, but that is not the Patriot and the most up-to-date PAC-3. Ukraine has patriots that it gets from the U.S., but the new arrangement, the licensing, would allow them down the road to have produced their own. Yes, the U.S. has exported patriot systems to Ukraine.

4:39What the license will do differently is allow the Ukrainians to build them on their own. It would be actually, in many ways, a game changer for the Ukrainians, at least on the air defense side. We've heard about a shrinking supply of Patriot missiles in the U.S. stockpile. How big of a deal is that? The shrinking supply of Patriot missiles is a huge problem. The U.S. government keeps those numbers classified, but the work that a range of our analysts have done at CSIS has noted significant uses of Patriot air defense systems and interceptors in the U.S. war against Iran, Epic Fury. And when Iran shot a range of its crews and ballistic missiles, as well as some drones.

5:27Those patriots were absolutely essential. The problem is that Iran shot so many missiles that the number of U.S. interceptors was significant and depleted the interceptors available. And the timeline for producing them generally takes anywhere between two and three years. So it's not a short-term timeline for producing them on the production lines. With the license and the ability to produce Patriot missile defenses, can you talk about what that could mean in terms of bringing about the end of the war? Having the Ukrainians able to build first-tier air defense systems like a Patriot, even if it takes time to build, I think would be helpful in showing the Russians that the Ukrainians will likely be able to fight for a long period of time.

6:25The Ukrainians are producing drones for offensive purposes, some missiles for offensive purposes. This will give them the ability to produce air defense for ballistic and cruise missiles for the long term. I think the lesson that the Russians would almost certainly take out of this is that the Ukrainians will be able to fight a protracted conflict on offense and defense. Seth Jones is the president of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He was speaking with NPR's Don Gagne.

7:06That's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening.

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