Trump’s tactics in Iran and the longest intentional internet blackout ever

0:00Support for this podcast and the following message come from Ali. Gut health on the mind? Ali can help. Ali has science-backed supplements for you and the family, from daily probiotics to fiber gummies for the kiddos. Find the full lineup at Ali.com. That's O-L-L-Y dot com. Today on State of the World, Trump's tactics in Iran, and the longest intentional internet blackout ever. You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories up close where they're happening. I'm Greg Dixon. In a few minutes, who does and doesn't have internet in Iran? First, since the war in Iran began, President Trump has used a wide range of tactics and framing to try to bend Tehran to U.S.

0:49demands. He dismissed a recent exchange of fire during a truce as a, quote, love tap. But so far, Iran isn't bending, and the two sides seem as far apart as ever. NPR's Jackie Northam tells us more. To get a good sense of President Trump's tactical acrobatics, you need only focus in on a 48-hour time span in which he announced an operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, then turned around the next day and suspended it. He said the war wasn't a war, it was a skirmish, and said there was great progress in peace talks, then threatened to start bombing again if Iran doesn't produce the right deal.

1:28There you see a whole mix of cajoling and diplomacy and rhetoric and threats kind of all combined. Richard Fontaine is CEO of the Center for a New American Security, a foreign policy think tank. He says Trump is clearly frustrated that the crisis with Iran has lasted so long. So far, there has been no combination of carrots and sticks that has brought Iran to the terms of the Americans want. And if the idea is that at some point soon, Iran will just break and kind of give the American side everything it wants, I think that is not going to happen. Elizabeth Dent, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says the goalposts have shifted over the weeks, with Trump and members of his administration giving different reasons for the war.

2:17I think the reason why this all feels like whiplash is because there were never any clear strategic goals or military goals that were laid out before the war started. It sounded like we were pushing for a regime change and then the military came out and said that they had these four specific goals. And so, you know, I just think the messaging on this has been really bungled. Den says there was some hubris at play. The U.S. felt Iran was an easy target militarily. She says Trump probably underestimated the Iranians. I think he was emboldened by a series of military successes over the last year and a half.

2:55Venezuela was one of them. And I think that that kind of led him to believe that the Iranians would go very quickly. And obviously, like, that's not the case. Dent says the U.S. is losing credibility by Trump's inconsistent statements. Lyle Goldstein is with the D.C. think tank Defense Priorities. He says some of Trump's comments, such as his threat to, quote, annihilate an entire civilization, actually benefited the Iranian regime. What's at stake for Iran is the very existence of the state itself, the continuation of the regime. I think talking about destroying civilizations has certainly helped unify Iranians around, you know, rally around the flag.

3:35White House spokesperson Carolyn Levitt defends Trump's strategy, saying he's playing the long game against an Iranian regime that's seen its leadership decimated. It's Iran who needs to get their acts together. The United States and President Trump have been very clear in our demands and our red lines. But Goldstein says that Trump's unpredictable and abrasive style doesn't help in delicate negotiations. The idea that you could enter into such a complex negotiation and hope that it's finished in 24 hours is just bizarre. Goldstein says Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz does give it key leverage.

4:13So it's hard to see how the current administration escapes this, what is clearly a kind of vast humiliation. And he warns that the political clock is ticking, with midterm elections just six months away. Jackie Northam, NPR News. Iran is experiencing the longest intentional internet blackout ever recorded. The government turned off the Internet more than 70 days ago since the war with the U.S. and Israel began. But some people have stayed online. NPR's Arzu Rezvani looks at Iran's Internet haves and have-nots. Accessing the Internet is not a right in Iran. It's a privilege. If you're a pro-government influencer, you can get online.

4:58We are already free and we really don't need your help to liberate us. If you're a producer of propaganda, access is no problem.

5:09And of course, if you're a government official, you can keep doing interviews with American media. You're speaking to us via Zoom. The Iranian people don't have open internet access, but you do. Why? Because I'm the voice of Iranians and I have to defend their right. So this is why I have access to internet. For the last couple of months, 99 percent of Iranians have not been able to get online, according to Netblocks, which tracks global Internet outages. Schools, businesses, banks are only getting by on the state-run intranet system that's cut off from the World Wide Web. Iran's government argues it's hit the Internet's kill switch to guard against cyber war.

5:52Many Iranians believe the blackout is actually about controlling the wartime narrative and suppressing any potential for uprisings. Whatever the motive, one thing is certain, says Amir Rashidi of the digital rights organization, the Mian Group. Government allegiance determines internet access. If you are someone pushing Iranian propaganda, you can get a white SIM card. Basically, you can go on any website you want during the internet shutdown. If you are somebody who is running a business and not as trustworthy as those who are getting a white SIM card, then you can apply for Internet Pro. The Supreme Council of Cyberspace, a body accountable to the Supreme Leader, makes the ultimate decision on access.

6:39They might say, you cannot open YouTube, but you can open Gmail. They might come back and say, your job doesn't need Gmail. Telegram is enough for you, so everything is blocked except Telegram. In this tiered system, uncensored white internet and white SIM cards are free for government loyalists. Those who want internet pro must pay for their restricted access. And it's expensive. A gigabyte of data runs about$10. If you spend maybe three hours, four hours on Instagram, probably you're going to spend all of it. It's a scheme many Iranians buy into to get back online. And that's how the regime asserts its dominance over people, says Ahmad Ahmadiyyad.

7:23He's executive director of Holistic Resilience, a U.S.-based group devoted to digital freedom. You have to just comply with the Iranian government's rules. And this puts many people in a position of, quote-unquote, complicity with the regime. And this is exactly what the government wants. Activists have been countering this internet chokehold by helping people in Iran get their hands on startling terminals. Even though they're illegal to use in Iran and even though security forces are detaining people for using them, digital experts estimate there are some 50 ,000 units in the country. Ahmadiyya is exploring ways to optimize them.

7:59We are focusing on multiplying the reach of any of those Starlinks by building some services so they can securely share any of these Starlink nodes, allowing up to 50 other people to connect to those nodes. Expanding Starlink's reach like that would still leave 96 percent of Iranians offline. But Ahmadiyyaan says piercing even that small hole in government control is worth it, a signal to authorities that their grip on the Internet can only last so long. Arazi Razvani, NPR News.

8:39That's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening. This week on Up First, President Trump heads to China. On the agenda, Taiwan, AI, and the war with Iran, a close Chinese ally and trade partner. One big question, will Trump ask China to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? We're reporting from Beijing on a week of major news that affects the world and your wallet. On Up First, listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.