Venezuelans are daring to hope again

0:00Do you ever wish you could predict the future? Well, some scientists try to do that every year, forecasting when cherry blossom trees will bloom each spring. It's a wild guess, but there is some science about it. And there is a lot riding on the peak bloom forecast. Tourism, climate change models, and more. Listen to Shortwave on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts to hear how scientists are predicting the future. On today's State of the World, we hear from ordinary Venezuelans who express relief and hope for their country.

0:37You're listening to State of the World from NPR, the day's most vital international stories, up close where they're happening. It's Friday, April 3rd. I'm Christine Arismeth. It's been nearly three months since the U.S. seized President Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. It may be a historic moment, but real change won't come quickly or easily. And yet, on the streets and in homes, you feel an air of hope. NPR's Eder Peralta reports from Caracas. Araceli Hernández's home sits at the top of a mountain overlooking all of Caracas. She says she will never forget January 3rd.

1:24They were sleeping, she says, when they began hearing the roar of warplanes and then explosions.

1:36Her daughter, Mervis, screamed, and she realized they were here. The gringos are here, she said. The electricity went off. They thought American planes would drop bombs on their neighborhood. Firefights would erupt on the streets.

1:56It was horrible, she says. We felt horrible. We don't know what Trump wants to do with our country, she says. Maybe he wants it all for himself. But the prospect of change is better than nothing. May God forgive me for saying this, she says. But thank God he took Maduro. That feeling of relief you hear across Caracas. Suddenly, after years of deepening repression, Venezuelans are talking politics with strangers. Members of the opposition are campaigning. On a recent Sunday, with the sun shining, a small group of protesters took to the streets. We rise with more strength, one protester said, because we have a new promise of liberty and justice for Venezuela.

2:49It used to be that mobs on motorcycles would pull up, randish weapons and disperse any show of dissent. But this time, police stop traffic. They escort the protesters. Many are already celebrating a transition toward democracy. That's political scientist John Magdaleno. No, my friends, this has been abundantly studied. Indeed, political scientists agree that to declare the beginning of a democratic transition, there needs to be liberalization of everything from freedom of thought and of assembly to the respect of privacy. Pretending that the old system does an instant triple corkscrew into a democracy is just not realistic.

3:38Magdaleno says world data shows that in the past 120 years, there were 383 democratic transitions. Only 145 made it. That means six of every ten democratic transitions do not end well. But if there's one thing I hear over and over across Venezuela, it's that hope springs eternal.

4:08One night, I joined the families of political prisoners outside Rodeo Uno, a notorious maximum security prison.

4:19Every night, they pray, they light candles, and just before 9 p.m., they begin climbing a hill that winds behind the prison. Del Siacaro says dozens of family members came here just a few days after Maduro was seized by the U.S.

4:40She says one day they walked up the hill and from one spot they heard voices coming from the jail. They realized if they shouted loud enough, the prisoners could hear them too. And the guards don't tell you anything, I say.

4:59We just climb and trust in God, she says. Delcia's husband has been in jail for two years, accused of trying to overthrow the government. When they actually allow her to see him, authorities put a hood over her head. We stop at a ravine strewn with trash. Through the trees, we see the lights of the jail twinkling. And at exactly 9 p.m., the families begin their ritual. All ears, they scream, and the silence that follows feels eternal. Are their family members still inside? Are they alive? There's no answer.

5:41From the jail comes a response. We hear you. First, they update the prisoners with news. Today, it was a meeting between Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and President Trump.

5:57A closed-door meeting that lasted 90 minutes. And then, the family members line up to deliver personal messages.

6:09God bless you, son. We're okay. Keep fighting, one father says. Melba Vasquez lights a cigarette. Her son was thrown in prison following the 2024 elections for supporting the opposition. Vasquez is in her 70s. Her voice is not very strong, so others help her. Mergue! Mergue! Mergue! They're silent. Maybe he's somewhere else today and he can't hear Vasquez muses. She paces. I hear you, he shouts. Your mom is here, they tell him. Vasquez takes a deep drag of her cigarette and smiles. The other women elbow her. Tell him something. I love you. I love you. Son, I love you, she shouts. She has the hope that one day all political prisoners are released and she'll be able to hug her son.

7:14But for now, for today, just hearing his voice is good enough. Ada Peralta, NPR News, Caracas.

7:27That's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening.