What is the future of U.S. military bases in the Middle East?

0:28Hey, it's Mike Danforth, executive producer of Wait, Wait, Wait, Don't tell me. bases in the Middle East. You're listening to State of the World from NPR, a human perspective on global events. I'm Greg Dixon. When the U.S. and Israel launched a war in Iran over six months ago, Iran retaliated by blocking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also launched counterattacks on U.S. military targets across the Gulf. They hit U.S. forces on air bases in Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Now, as the war drags on and even escalates in recent days, the future of those bases and U.S.

1:11troops in the region remains uncertain. On today's episode, we're going to explore that future with two NPR correspondents, Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman and international correspondent in the Gulf, Aya Batraoui. They spoke to Scott Detrow. Eyal, let's start with you and what you're hearing in the Gulf from Arab allies that have long hosted thousands of U.S. troops, believing it would offer them protection from adversaries like Iran. So I'm wondering, does that model still hold? Yeah, Scott. So this is one of the most sensitive questions right now for the U.S. and Gulf allies. In Washington, that's because any permanent troop reduction could be seen as a sign of weakness to Iran.

1:52And here in the Gulf, there are two realities holding firm. The first is that the presence of U.S. troops who launched attacks on Iran from these bases is partly why these Arab countries were attacked by thousands of Iranian missiles and drones during the war. The other reality is that there's no replacement to U.S. defense in the Gulf. Bilal Saab, a former advisor at the Pentagon who's now with Trends Research and Advisory, explains it like this. It's overstated to say that they are fundamentally rethinking everything. No, no, they understand that there's no alternative to the Americans. And the Americans is not just a weapon.

2:25The Americans is everything that comes with it. He says that includes training and political influence, intangible things that they can't, for example, get from China. So he says despite its flaws, the U.S. is still the best defense partner Gulf Arab states have. Are these countries questioning, though, whether to host sprawling U.S. bases going forward? So in an apparent reference to the U.S. security umbrella and what it actually offers, Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman Majid Al Ansari told an audience in the UAE that this war revealed the security architecture of the Gulf was based on a, quote, fragile deterrence.

3:00It took one drone to disrupt, not disrupt, actually, reduce the capability of a country like Qatar to produce LNG by 17%. One drone. That probably in all its supply chain did not cost any more than$100 ,000. So he's saying, Scott, that cheap drones cost the world. its liquefied natural gas supply from Qatar, which had to halt production when its main complex was hit in the war. In other words, he's saying 10 ,000 U.S. troops that were stationed in Qatar couldn't deter that attack. Tom, I'm going to bring you into this conversation now to talk more about those U.S. troops, because right now, some of the troops and sailors that were in the region have been pulled out.

3:40I'm curious what you're hearing from U.S. officials about the future of U.S. troops in the Gulf. Well, Scott, officials are still assessing the way ahead. Back in April, Pentagon Comptroller Jay Hurst told Congress it depends on how we decide to rebuild to those facilities or if we do. With Bahrain at a recent town hall with sailors, the chief of naval operations, Admiral Darrell Cottle, was asked when sailors would return to this Fifth Fleet hub of operations so they and their families could collect their personal belongings. He gave a blunt answer. We're not getting back in there anytime soon.

4:14I just want to be completely honest with that. And one official I spoke with said it's possible Bahrain would become what's called an expeditionary base, meaning really bare bones with no dependents. Transparency has been a real challenge with this administration, with this Pentagon. Tom, has the Pentagon been forthcoming about how much damage has been inflicted on these bases or how many thousands of troops have been pulled away from them? Well, at that hearing back in April, Pentagon Comptroller Hearst told Congress he does not have a final cost estimate for the damage to bases and facilities.

4:46Of course, since then, there have been many more Iranian attacks on U.S. locations throughout the region. Analysts say you're looking at damages in the billions of dollars and maybe 16 or so U.S. locations that have been hit. Pentagon really hasn't been forthcoming with much information at all about the war or the number of troops pulled out. As far as Bahrain, we know there were some 8 ,000 military personnel there before the war, and now it's less than 100. Some 1 ,300 family members were evacuated as well. And Aya, the question of transparency in this administration also underpins that bigger question of what is the U.S.

5:26strategy in the Gulf today? What are you hearing about that? So Scott, Gulf Arab states say U.S. policy has been unpredictable and unreliable for more than a decade now, stretching back to the Obama administration in that first deal with Iran. And they believe it heavily favors Israel and Israel's political whims. So some Gulf countries are racing to build their own domestic defense industries and broaden their security ties. You can see this with the Abraham Accords between the UAE and Israel that established ties several years ago. the UAE then used Israel's Iron Dome as part of its defense in this war.

6:00And then this summer, there was the Mecca agreement between Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia for joint defense. But there's no indication still, Scott, that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, or Qatar are telling the U.S. to lower their troop numbers indefinitely. They seem to be waiting for the U.S. to actually have a clear policy of what it wants to do. And in the meantime, they're rushing to defend their oil and gas facilities and protect their economies from this expanding war. That was NPR's Aya Batraoui and Tom Bowman speaking with Scott Detra.

6:34And that's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening. This message comes from Rosetta Stone, offering an alternative approach to language learning. Without relying on traditional memorization, the platform guides users to intuitively think in a second language. More information at rosettastone.com.