What is the path forward for Venezuela?

0:00Today on State of the World, what is the path forward for Venezuela?

0:09You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories, up close where they're happening. It's Friday, January 16th. I'm Greg Dixon. About two weeks ago, the United States military captured Nicolas Maduro, the leader of Venezuela. Maduro is being tried in a New York court, accused of trafficking cocaine into the U.S., among other crimes. In a few minutes, we'll hear what lies ahead for him. But first, what lies ahead for Venezuela and how will its relationship with the U.S. change? President Trump has insisted the U.S. is, quote, in charge of Venezuela.

0:46Since the operation to capture Maduro, Trump has spoken to Maduro's vice president, who is now interim president, on the phone. And he's welcomed Venezuela's exiled opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Carino Machado to the White House. To understand the path forward for Venezuela, we're going to hear from Eduardo Gamara. He's a professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University. He spoke with NPR's A. Martinez. I saw that Machado dropped off her Nobel Prize at the White House, and she left with what appeared to be a Trump-branded gift bag. So aside from that, what do you think she walked away from in this meeting?

1:28well that's a that's an interesting question because uh in fact i think what she what she finally obtained is a face-to-face meeting with donald trump uh something that uh that she's been seeking for a while uh in fact she's been she's been an outspoken supporter of donald trump uh uh for the last few years and uh but yet she had never had this face-to-face with him and And he wasn't too receptive of her, as you know, until now. So she's gained something in the sense that he's recognized her. And at the same time, I think President Trump is able to kind of bridge this gap that he had, somewhat critical in the Venezuelan community, which saw his closeness to Delcy Rodriguez, the current interim president of Venezuela, as problematic.

2:20So this way, the president is able to say, yes, I'm talking to both of these women, and he's leaving open the possibility that Maria Corina Machado will be the person leading the democratic transition, although we clearly don't know when that will be. Right. It's almost been two weeks since everything went down in Venezuela. I know that a lot of people want answers quickly, but is that enough time to actually come up with a plan? No, clearly not. And I think the calculus that the administration has taken is one that, I mean, they've repeated it a number of times, which is the only possibility of stability in Venezuela today is in fact working with the very regime that they haven't deposed.

3:07and the only way to pursue the Trump administration's objectives of securing control over the oil industry and of long-term investment in the oil industry is in fact working with this regime, working with Delcy, and working with all of the other questionable individuals, some of whom form part of the indictment against Nicolás Maduro. There was a poll that came out this week by the Caracas firm Mega Analysis, and it surveyed more than 1 ,000 people. 92 % of Venezuelans feel grateful to Donald Trump. Two-thirds believe the U.S. is not in control. And Machado has said before that she would bury socialism forever in Venezuela.

3:48So I'm wondering, what would be the reason why Donald Trump would not back Corina Machado right away? I think the whole issue has to do with stability. The unfortunate reality is that Maria Corina Machado, while she enjoys overwhelming support in Venezuela and among the exile community, she doesn't have a structure that would allow her, in fact, to ensure political stability in Venezuela. and many of the things that she would have to do and which probably Delcy Rodriguez will have to do is deal with the narcotics trafficking structures that remain intact, with the gang structures that remain intact, with the colectivos, the militia structures that remain intact and probably above all controlling the military and the intelligence institutions that are largely controlled by Diosdado Cabello, the other man indicted in New York but who still forms part of this governing coalition.

4:50In the last couple of weeks, Professor, Venezuelans have told me that Delcy Rodriguez, to them, is as complicit as Nicolás Maduro has been for the state of Venezuela. If that indeed is the case, I mean, when you think about what this future for Venezuela looks like, how could it possibly include anyone in Maduro's government? Well, there's an old adage in Latin America that transitions like this, and particularly problematic transitions, imply swallowing frogs. And that essentially means that in order to move Venezuela forward, you have to work with some rather heinous people, including Delcy, who has been a part of this regime and was very close to Maluto, in fact.

5:37And so in the near future, I think working with Del C is still going to be key despite her terrible background. All right, that's Eduardo Gamada, professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University. Professor, thank you very much. Thank you. Just hours after he was captured in Caracas nearly two weeks ago, Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro was arraigned in a courthouse in Manhattan. NPR's Ryan Lucas reports on the challenges ahead for the prosecutors on the case. The Justice Department's case against Nicolas Maduro can be boiled down to something like this. For more than 20 years, Maduro and other top Venezuelan officials allegedly worked hand-in-hand with drug cartels to ship tons of cocaine into the United States.

6:21Maduro has pleaded not guilty, and there's still a long road ahead. But ultimately, if he goes on trial, it will fall to prosecutors to take the disparate threads of what they say is a sprawling drug trafficking conspiracy and have it make sense for a jury. A complex drug case like this presents its own particular challenges for prosecutors, including the intense spotlight that comes with such a high-profile prosecution. Obviously, you've got a lot of pressure because there's obviously been an enormous amount of time, money, blood, treasure, sweat invested in bringing some of these individuals to trial.

7:00Adam Fels was one of the lead prosecutors in the trial of Mexico's Sinaloa cartel leader, Joaquin El Chapo Guzman, who was convicted in 2019 and sentenced to life in prison plus 30 years. Fels, who is now in private practice, says part of the pressure stems from the challenge of marshalling all of the evidence that investigators have collected over the years. In the Maduro case, That means going through the material directly tied to him, but also the mountains of information gathered in other federal cases brought against high-level Venezuelan officials over the past 15-odd years. They absolutely go through everything because it's going to take a little time for this trial to move forward.

7:38So there may be witnesses they don't even know about at this point that they're going to try to use their law enforcement partners to try to locate. The passage of time presents another challenge for witnesses who may be asked to testify about a specific meeting or conversation that took place more than a decade ago. It's well known. People's memories fade over time. And so that's obviously a large concern. And that's where some evidence, physical evidence, can really come into play. Physical evidence, Fells says, can go a long way to help corroborate witness testimony that dates back in time.

8:13Then there is the nature of the witnesses themselves and their credibility. Since in a sprawling multi-decade narco-trafficking case, witnesses usually have a background in drug trafficking or violence, says Gina Parlovecchio, who was another lead prosecutor in the El Chapo trial. So of course you're always concerned that the jury is going to be turned off by the conduct that these types of individuals have engaged in. In Maduro's case, prosecutors allege a drug conspiracy that dates back to 1999 involving other senior Venezuelan officials, Maduro's wife, as well as leaders of drug trafficking organizations.

8:48Parlo Vecchio, who's now in private practice, says the vast arc of time involved presents its own complications when trying to tell a straightforward story to a jury. I think, you know, being able to knit together different scenes, if you will, or incidents that happen in sort of interspersed over, you know, multiple decades is always a little bit challenging and showing the defendant's ongoing engagement in the conspiracy. Eventually, prosecutors will have to stitch those scenes together for a jury if, down the road, the case against Maduro goes to trial. Ryan Lucas, NPR News, Washington.

9:30That's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening.