In short
Whether markets are in an “AI bubble” amid a fast NASDAQ rally; discussion centers on semiconductors, AI capex/fundamentals, and bubble-adjacent conditions, plus a separate stock story about GameStop bidding for eBay.
Guests
Michael Mahoney (co-host/colleague). No other guests appear; the episode is primarily two hosts discussing stocks.
Key claims
Rally is unusually rapid (“melt-up”); semiconductors (SOX) are extreme; earnings show AI spending not slowing; valuations and momentum resemble late-1999/2000 conditions, but fundamentals may differ. Morgan Stanley argues AI productivity gains may lag mania (like internet boom). Bubble conditions exist (concentration, momentum, valuations), but not a full sell signal.
Notable examples
C3 AI (ticker AI) down 35% YTD and 93% since IPO; SOX up ~40% in April and ~160% YoY; Intel, Micron, Sandisk/Western Digital, AxD; Shiller index >40; GameStop proposed acquisition of eBay (AOL-Time Warner analogy); “Finding Profit” portfolio names like Nvidia, Jabil, Howmet, Wesco.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Sentiment on AI Stocks
0:30 to 1:19
Discussion on the performance of C3 AI and the broader AI market trends.
“I'll offer this now, okay, as a counter to a dot-com comparison.”
Assessing the Market Bubble
2:52 to 4:41
An analysis of whether the current market growth signals a bubble.
“Mike, the question, the real question I have for you is, are we in a bubble?”
Semiconductor Market Dynamics
4:41 to 6:39
Exploration of the semiconductor sector's explosive growth and its implications.
“I saw it from Charlie Bilello, who's a good follow on Twitter.”
Dot-Com Bubble Comparisons
6:39 to 9:15
Comparing current market conditions with the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s.
“They are the most extreme for that index since the year 2000.”
AI and Economic Productivity
9:15 to 12:18
Discussion on the role of AI in boosting productivity and its future potential.
“And like the bottom line coming out of the earnings season is that at least for now, the perception is AI spending is not slowing down in any way.”
Market Conditions and Behavioral Analysis
12:18 to 14:02
Assessment of market conditions, investor psychology, and potential bubbles.
The Dot-Com Bubble Reflection
14:02 to 16:45
Exploring the similarities between the current market and the dot-com bubble.
“And all of a sudden my brokerage had locked me out of my brokerage account.”
C3 AI and Market Sentiment
17:11 to 19:39
Discussing the performance of C3 AI amidst AI market trends.
“I think it's a very real, very visceral example of what a bubble is.”
Investment Strategies and Market Sustainability
19:39 to 21:58
Analyzing the sustainability of investments in technology and memory companies.
“Now, I guess the big question is the longevity of that demand and the sustainability of this demand, because we had Jose Mayor on last week.”
Market Inflection Points and Stock Picking
21:58 to 24:51
Identifying key market inflection points and the implications for stock picking.
“Everyone knows that when you buy a car, it depreciates as you drive it off the car lot.”
Show all 13 chapters
GameStop's Bold Move into eBay
24:51 to 28:06
Examining GameStop's proposed acquisition of eBay and its implications.
“You could be using that phrase a lot more.”
GameStop's Strategy and Market Comparisons
28:06 to 36:45
Explore GameStop's potential acquisition of eBay and its market implications.
“And the numbers here on the GameStop thing are staggering, depending on what final offer lands, GameStop could end up paying as much as$65 billion for eBay, despite GameStop itself being worth about$12 billion.”
Following Profit: Current Stock Highlights
37:11 to 41:41
Dive into the latest stock picks and performance metrics from the Profit portfolio.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Study and play. Come together on a Windows 11 PC. And for a limited time, college students get the best of both worlds. Get the Unreal College Deal. Everything you need to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs. Eligible students get a year of Microsoft 365 Premium and a year of Xbox Game Pass Ultimate with a custom color Xbox wireless controller. Learn more at windows.com slash student offer. While supplies last, ends June 30th. Terms at aka.ms slash college pc. I'll offer this now, okay, as a counter to a dot-com comparison. C3 AI. It's got the ticker AI. Yep. How would you feel that company has done so far in 2026?
0:42Oh, interesting. Under this complete AI trade, one of the strongest momentum things we've seen in the markets, maybe since post-COVID, that software rush, but maybe even stronger. How do you think that company is?
0:54Emmet:The obvious answer is it's been on a bull run because it's the AI supercharged. I'm going to suspect it dropped a bit. They're down 35 % year to date and 93 % since IPO in 2021. Those five years on the public markets have encapsulated the AI bull rush.
1:19Emmet:Welcome to Stock Club, the podcast where we find and discuss stocks that anyone can buy, many of which we believe will go on to grow your wealth. I'm joined by my colleague and friend, Michael Mahoney. How you doing, Mike? I'm great now, yeah, tipping away. I see David Attenborough turned 100 years old last week, which was certainly a birthday of note. Did news of it hit your shores in Biarritz in France? I did, I saw it. I saw a beautiful kind of compilation of all his old bits and his commentary and stuff. but uh i was reminded someone very wise told me just today actually that uh they did a survey uh in the uk and like something like three percent of people said that they hated david attenborough yeah and that's i told that that's that's it that's a testament to just whatever you do wherever you go there's always someone that's going to disagree with you because how could you hate david attenborough i totally agree i think i took a degree of comfort from that that if you're in the public eye no matter how small you that eye is and i think you and i might to a degree you're in the public eye there's always going to be someone who just hates your guts and that's just the way it goes i mean who could hate david upper i remember watching his shows with my grand poachers maybe maybe maybe three percent of the uk population are poachers well that's a good point down with rain forests that kind of stuff exactly anyway happy david happy birthday, David.
2:47Emmet:I'm sure you listen to Stock Club. So we wish you all the best for the next 100 years. Mike, the question, the real question I have for you is, are we in a bubble? The NASDAQ is up something like 27 % in five weeks. So we're recording Tuesday, 12th of May, before the market opens. But right now, the market is up a whopping 27 % in just a little over a month are we in a bubble do you think it's a good question and like first of all this isn't a normal market whether we decide if it's a bubble or not like that's a maybe another question but six weeks ago we were here and we were going to hell in a handbasket do you know what i mean the s &p was down eight percent i think the nasdaq was in correction territory we were staring down the war in iran the uncertainty around energy prices none of which have gone away oil futures were spiking there was very much a sense of fear in investing circles and then as you said six weeks later the nasdaq turned around 28 i think the s p is up 17 since that march low it's up 8 year to date the nasdaq is up 16 year to date which is incredible it kind of reminds me a small bit of this about this same time last year when we had liberation day and the whole world exploded for about a month, six weeks, and then everyone was like, actually, wait a minute, that's not actually too bad.
4:18But just this seems to be happening again and again and again. It happened after COVID. It happened after Liberation Day. It happened with the war on Iran concern as well. The speed of recovery is just beyond belief. And it is a fair question. Are we in a bubble? Is this a melt-up? Is irrational exuberance in the mix? Because it's just not a normal market right now. I'm still in this stat, actually. I saw it from Charlie Bilello, who's a good follow on Twitter. So the 16 % gain in the S &P 500 over the last six weeks is the 11th biggest six-week gain for the index since 1950, which is impressive, but nothing truly out of the ordinary, just a very strong period.
4:59But what's unique about this rally is it's the only example in the top 20 that did not occur either during a bear market or soon after a bear market low. So I think this market is moving so fast that whatever downturn caused from the Iran war and the energy crisis was viewed in such a sense as, okay, that's our bear market. Now we recover. Now we bounce back from whatever it was, an 8 % loss from the year.
5:26Emmet:Yeah. I mean, I got a kick out of you calling it a melt-up as opposed to a meltdown. And I'm still smiling at that because Bank of America, I was reading during the week, described it as an upside crash. And I never heard of a melt up or an upside crash. But that kind of captures the mood of market watchers and measures and statistics like that. And interestingly to me, but not shockingly, the semiconductor sector is where the extremes are the most vivid. 100%. It's the same old names. Just going absolutely parabolic. Did you know there's a Philadelphia Semiconductor Index? Did you ever hear of it?
6:07No.
6:08Emmet:It's known, neither did I before I researched this, by the way, but it's known as SOX, S-O-X, and it was up nearly 40 % in a single month of April. and it's up 160 % year on year, which kind of gives a very good macro view of what a profound impact the semiconductor market has had on the overall market. And these numbers, whether you're up 40 % in April or 160 % year on year, are so extreme. They are the most extreme for that index since the year 2000. And that comparison, any mention of the year 2000 will make anybody my own age or like you well read on the market sit up straight because we don't we don't like year 2000 it was the dot-com bubble and someone put the the performance of the top 10 stocks so from 12 months previous to the dot-com peak interestingly there was two stocks that are both sandisk and lemare corp um but the top 10 stocks of the last 12 months actually performed better than the top 10 stocks from the 12 months before the dot-com peak which is worrying and like it is the same old names popping up so you have intel this is recorded on tuesday intel has doubled in a month it's up 500 in 12 months you are kidding me sandisk we talked about sandis on the podcast in December.
7:36We did.
7:37Emmet:It ranked number one on something we were talking about. It was the top performance stock from 2025. Right. And that wasn't even a full 12 months because it had a spin-off from Western Digital within that year, but it's just gone absolutely haywire. It's up, a time recording, 63 % in a month, 450 % in six months, 600 % since we talked about it on the podcast and we were saying the run-up was crazy then and about 37 or 3800 percent in the last 12 months just nuts do you remember david gardner was on the podcast he said what goes up must go upper yeah well that's the perfect example i mean it's up 600 since we were kind of uh lampooning its its meteoric rise in the preceding months 100 it's the same old names it's in memory micron my old flower my porn in my side every time i check the markets it's up 86 percent in a month like eightfold in the last year western digital is similar thousand percent in the last year it's a measly 200 since we're talking about in the podcast which yeah looks paltry compared to sandisk and then axd have you heard of this business i've heard of axd yeah yeah so same old like 40 year old chip company makes wafers for semiconductors all of a sudden it's up 700 so far this year leading the kind of charge when it comes to semiconductors well there you go i never would have guessed it michael burry you know the big short movie like he's characterized the current nasdaq rally as more extreme than 1999.
9:10and i will push back on that slightly and in fairness now michael burry has predicted 20 of the last three recessions so yeah to him and ray dalio like to everything what is what's the phrase to uh what sorry i'm gonna get this wrong to a hammer everything looks like a nail yeah yes yeah so like obviously there is such hype on momentum here it's undeniable and it is exuberant but there is some fundamentals on our pinning that as well we're just out of an incredible earning season so the median earning surprise aka like companies outperforming estimates was six percent this earning season which was the best it's been since 2022.
9:51And like the bottom line coming out of the earnings season is that at least for now, the perception is AI spending is not slowing down in any way. We saw that with the hyperscalers earnings. They're all committed to spending more this year and even more in 2027. And the companies lined up to serve those markets are the ones leading this charge. You know, the demand is never been hotter, which is crazy to say, because it feels like we're talking about the same topic for the last two years, really. But it isn't a baseless rally. The underlying metrics are there. And obviously, the collective psychology is there too.
10:23It's definitely shifted to a risk on mentality and maybe a herd mentality. But there are fundamentals at play too. And we've noticed this. And this is kind of an unintentional ad plug when we're talking about profit with the combination of price momentum and fundamentals momentum. We're seeing it happen really strongly with these type of businesses because yes they're going crazy but they're also delivering triple digit growth rates across the board too so it is nuts but in terms of like just the money being spent i don't think there's ever been something close to it like as an even dot-com bubble levels obviously the scale is bigger now the numbers are bigger but even in relation to that the the infrastructure spend is just it's beyond belief you know it really is and and you're right
11:10Emmet:There is a contrary argument. There's lots of arguments to say we're at a peak, and there's always someone or a system out there that says it's time to sell. It's just there's enough voices in the world for every opinion. And I mean, one time when a market is out of run, those voices get louder. Like Bob Shiller, who I think won the Nobel Prize for Economics. He has a measurement, the Shiller Index, when it tops a number, I think it's 40. It's time to sell. And that index has indeed topped 40. But Morgan Stanley, their view is that while the whole AI bubble is there to be seen, or at least the debate is raging on about whether or not we're in an AI bubble, healthy skepticism is actually keeping valuations more in check than it first appears.
11:55Emmet:and that there is an AI productivity revolution undergoing right now in front of our eyes. You and I as information workers, if you like, can see how AI is augmenting everything we touch. And then maybe if you're in landscape gardening, it's less apparent, but AI is fundamentally causing this productivity revolution. And it's now extending far beyond the Magnificent Seven into the broader economy and and morgan stanley has put forward in a piece that i was reading uh on the plane the other day uh it's into this it could power a late cycle bull market surge i hope i haven't over engineered that sentence but over the next few years we will see more and more and more new highs which of course we all wish for as growth investors as value invest as any type of investor you celebrate uh you celebrate these runs but the historical analogy that they used that morgan stanley used is that the biggest productivity gains from the internet boom which those my own age and your own age will remember came three years after the mania not during it so i remember late 99 stocks with rather businesses with broken business models and and a half formed ideas um like flues.com was the one that was being bandied about as the pets pets.com is the famous poster boy for this whole thing yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah all those kind of businesses while they were that mania was raging and indeed a bubble was forming in the pets.com and flues.com businesses were taken out by bubble bursting the true productivity gains that the internet delivered came to fruition three years later which has touched all of our lives none of even the landscape gardener has not been accelerated beyond humanity's wildest imaginations from 30 years as 30 years ago as a consequence of the internet and uh morgan stanley's saying that ai is going to have a similar effect and although there's another thing which technical analysts out there um are also saying and just going back to our semi semiconductor point is they said that the current semiconductor momentum levels despite this extraordinary gain that you just described remain below the dot-com bubble extremes and there's there's no evidence of this kind of bearish divergence which i don't know whether we take a comfort from that uh or is it somewhat unsettling and i guess it depends on your on your disposition but the bottom line from me anyways that nobody ever rings the bell at the top and what we can say with absolute confidence is conditions for a bubble they're definitely present like they are present there's extreme valuations uh there's momentum chasing there's a single sector concentration as you rightfully described and then it's very hard to avoid comparisons with 1999 and march to sorry year 2000 the reason march 2000 popped out of my mouth was because i remember a very personal story where i was in a hotel in ireland called mount juliet which is a very nice fancy hotel in kilkenny in march 2000 and it was before mobile internet was as reliable and as fast as it is now and in those days with your laptop computer you slid in this card into the side to give it give it mobile internet i think it was called a pimpsia card and it used lots of channels on gsm to bring internet to your computer and i logged in this for me is one of the defining moments of my investing life and i logged in to learn of the disadvantages of margin trading as i sat in that hotel because i had built by my life standards at that stage i was 26 years old by my life standards i I had amassed a huge amount of wealth that could never have been envisaged, but as a consequence of investing in the stock market with a bull run, aka the dot-com bubble and using margins.
16:07Emmet:And all of a sudden my brokerage had locked me out of my brokerage account. All I could do was look at it as I was selling positions in order to replenish the debt that I owed as a consequence of borrowing to buy more. And this giant portfolio worth a huge, multiple, multiple, multiple of an annual salary was literally dropping by five grand, 10 grand, five grand, with every refresh of the screen. And that was, for me, observing a bubble bursting in real time. And anyway, I digress to tell that story, but it was very real for me at the time. Ready to soundtrack your summer? With Red Bull Summer All Day Play, you choose a playlist that fits your summer vibe the best.
16:52Are you a festival fanatic, a deep end DJ, a road dog or a trail mixer? Just add a song to your chosen playlist and put your summer on track. Red Bull Summer All Day Play. Red Bull gives you wings. Visit redbull.com slash bright summer ahead to learn more. See you this summer. I don't think it's a digression at all. I think it's a very real, very visceral example of what a bubble is. and the downsides of it, but I'll offer this now, okay, as a counter to a dot-com comparison. C3 AI, it's got the ticker AI. Yep. How would you feel that company has done so far in 2026?
17:33Emmet:Oh, interesting. Under this complete like AI trade, one of the strongest momentum things we've seen in the markets, maybe since 20, post-COVID, like that software rush, but maybe even stronger. How do you think that company is? I'm really enjoying this question because I'm fascinated in the answer. I have no idea for no idea. But what I do know was that I tracked C3 AI, ticker AI for years from IPO through to about two years ago when I thought this is a phony company. Now, I won't. I won't elaborate on that because I don't have notes in front of me. But I what I mean by phony was I contacted them actually as the founder of my wall street with a view of to help us integrate AI into our business before like it was everywhere right and I wasn't overly impressed so without knowing the answer and knowing that the obvious answer is it's been on a bull run because it's the AI supercharged I'm going to suspect it dropped a bit they're down 35 percent year to date and 93 % since IPO in 2021.
18:44And that public record, I suppose, those five years on the public markets have encapsulated the AI bulrush.
18:54Emmet:Imagine having the ticker AI. Exactly. Which would predispose you to anyone who's not inclined to thinking too hard and going to invest in AI. And there you go. And still, now there you go. So my suspicions, I had no clue, none whatsoever, because I got quite infuriated with the business on a number of fronts and removed it from all my trackers and watch lists and apps and whatnot because I just don't believe in this. Very interesting. I take a little comfort out of that. I mean, I don't wish it was. It's anecdotal, you know. It's anecdotal. It does, I think, give some semblance of there is underlying quality to this rally.
19:35Because if you look at the companies that are leading the rally as well, it is coming from demand it is coming from sales it is coming from profit growth yeah do you know what i mean you'd look at the backlogs of any of the memory going back to the memory companies these are wrecking my head but micron sandisk western digital yeah they're they're all like we have looking at backlogs for the next four years maxed out and we're trying to open new conveyor belts and all the rest and we literally we literally cannot meet this demand So it is there. Now, I guess the big question is the longevity of that demand and the sustainability of this demand, because we had Jose Mayor on last week.
20:15He's a value investor, obviously not loving current market conditions, but his whole thing was return on invested capital, return on equity, return on the money you're spending. and i do think that puts it under the microsoft slightly when you see companies like google saying we're going from spending 175 billion this year in capex to 185 billion and we're going to spend even more next year amazon doing the same microsoft doing the same facebook doing the same when it comes down to brass tacks when you are talking about cash flows that match that investment those become very very big numbers do you know what i mean 250 billion in cash flow to match that type of investment to get returns on capital.
20:56Now, obviously, this could be long term investment. But a lot of the chips, and we talked about this last week, so I'm kind of don't want to repeat myself too much. But a lot of the investments are in short term assets, in a sense, like is in these Nvidia chips become obsolete as they become more advanced.
21:13Emmet:Yeah. So there is elements to that where it does feel like I feel like if the balloon is going to pop. That's where that's where it happens. it's where the hyperscalers take a step back and be like whoa wait a minute i presume accountants depreciate chips like 50 a year or even more is it just fully depreciated in year one well i think this is where michael burry is uh talking about his bubble talk as well there was i think he mentioned something along these lines of the depreciation of uh certain investments like that into that infrastructure being kind of a bit dodgy. But I'm not going to speak on it when I don't know enough.
21:55There's a few like, you know, truths.
21:58Emmet:Everyone knows that when you buy a car, it depreciates as you drive it off the car lot. In the car sales showroom, you've dropped five grand in value, they say in Ireland, once you drive it off the car lot. Another is that if you buy some chipsets from an NVIDIA or whoever it is, they're worth less before they're delivered. And then a friend of mine who lives in Venezuela for a while, he was saying that when you go out for dinner, you pay on the way in as opposed to the way out because by the time you're leaving, you'll have to pay double the amount. Inflation's gone down. Inflation will have kicked you in the backside.
22:34Emmet:Okay, look, let's leave it at that, Mike. I think there's another really super interesting story floating around at the moment. Before we do, I just did a little bit of research here now. So I have a small game to finish the kind of bubble talk. Okay. Tell me. And so I have a list of stocks here because this isn't, this isn't a bubble across the entire market. Obviously if money is going into the AI trade, it's got to leave somewhere else. Yeah. Oh, okay. Good. Here's a sample of stocks that have hit 52 week lows this week. All right. Okay. McDonald's Home Depot, Macario Libre, Lululemon, Accenture, all the medical device companies Abbott, Medtronic, Danaher, Boston Scientific Striker, Intuitive Surgical Otis Otis Elevator, Zoetis Flutter, Brown and Brown These are all seriously enduring business models, they've been around for decades on the public markets and they're getting left in the dust because if you're not AI, you're nothing right now Ridiculous, ridiculous Which I believe is an interesting inflection point I suppose for a stock picker So my question is, gun to your head, five years time, which side of the trade do you want to be on?
23:45The stocks I mentioned there at all-time highs or the stocks I mentioned at 52-week lows? You've got to bask with both.
23:51Emmet:I'm going to go with the lows. Despite the wisdom of David Gardner in my ear for my whole life, where the up goes up or, you know, it doesn't make sense at all. whether or not you agree with the food trend mcdonald's survived for 50 plus years doing what it does and making more money more or less every year i'm going on i'm sticking with mcdonald's a little trip to home depot i'm buying some lululemon gear uh what else did you say there uh you can put a bed on and patty power micarta libre a magnificent business we spoke about it in a recent podcast honestly one of the greatest or possibly the greatest latin american business businesses of all time how on earth are these companies hitting all-time lows while we see businesses that have depreciating assets albeit pairing the future uh being shipped out the door for at preposterous multiples it's interesting it's an interesting point in the markets but uh we'll leave it there we haven't really answered the question if we're in a bubble or not but we're probably not far off we're bubble adjacent you know uh i guess the bigger question is what does it mean for my portfolio construction so whether you're in a bubble or not the real thing is what does it mean for me and it certainly for me it doesn't mean sell everything for me doesn't mean even sell anything that's just me as an investor but it certainly suggests that in the short term upside might be more limited but as we saw on sandisk we can say that all we wish might still have another 600 to go yeah there's as as gardner trademarked what goes up must go because I think it's a good one.
25:26You could be using that phrase a lot more.
25:28Emmet:It's in his book, Rule Breaker Investing, which I interviewed him about on the podcast here. Right, okay, Mike. The story that we both figured was just so interesting slash bizarre is that mean stock favorite GameStop is bidding for internet-forming supergiant dinosaur eBay. so GameStop has decided it wants to own eBay and we thought it would be worth a little chat yeah 100 so GameStop is what like a fifth the tenth of the market cap of eBay yeah it is I mean I read a fantastic piece in Fortune recently comparing GameStop's proposed acquisition because it isn't a deal done but they it's a that it's a proposed acquisition to this really infamous AOL Time Warner merger.
26:26Emmet:And honestly, the parallels are fascinating. Will I give you a quick recount? Because I don't want to steal any thunder, but will I give you a quick recount? No, no, please, please. Well, the core argument is that GameStop, despite this meme stock legacy that most of us out here know about, and there was a movie made about it, you know, the one. Anyway, so the core argument is GameStop, basically with its new CEO, Ryan Cohen, or relatively new CEO, Ryan Cohen. Who's kind of his own meme stock legacy as well. Yeah, yeah. Tell me what you mean. Was he the CEO of Chewy? I can't remember. Oh, right.
27:11Okay, I didn't know that. And he becomes a very influential trader that a lot of people followed. but the eBay stuff is hilarious. Like he was on, was he on CNBC or Fox Business or something like that saying he could run this business with two people and a server or something?
27:31Emmet:Ah, stop. No, I tell you, I totally missed that exact memo. Anyway, Ryan Cohen, he's facing a really difficult long-term future because GameStop really as a business model is kind of fundamentally broken revenues are declining uh the physical retail model will remain under pressure forever more and then there's aggressive cost cutting and all of these things can only take you so far so the theory is that cone is trying to use game stops still elevated stock price as currency to acquire a much larger more stable consistently profitable business that is ebay so it's the david is going to take over goliath as it were and gamestop is enjoying and and you one could argue quite easily an overinflated share price and the article that i i read in fortune uh pointed out that this is remarkably similar to what most of our listeners won't recall or possibly didn't even know happened but aol america online was their brand of the internet in america in the 1990s and like you only had to it was even part of of pop culture and lore like the movie you've got mail was all aol's branding was all over it for meg ryan and and tom hanks were in a romantic relationship and they're logging onto aol and whatever so but what aol did in the year 2000 was they used it's their wildly inflated.com valuation to acquire Time Warner.
29:11Emmet:And in both cases, a smaller, highly valued company, and I say in both cases, bringing it back to GameStop, is using this kind of giant valuation to try and stabilize your own business by buying a steadier enterprise and issuing huge amounts of stocks and promising transformational synergies. And the numbers here on the GameStop thing are staggering, depending on what final offer lands, GameStop could end up paying as much as$65 billion for eBay, despite GameStop itself being worth about$12 billion. That was just before the beta merged. And just to make the maths, or the math if you're in America, work, the company would need to issue an outlandish amount of new shares, massively diluting existing shareholders while selling the dream of, oh yeah, but we'll own eBay.
30:07Emmet:And simultaneously, they're going to take on, or they would need to, should it go ahead, take on tens of billions in debt. So what the... Who would finance that? Honestly, and like a 14-year-old who started to study business in school with an average capability and intellect would go, that doesn't sound like a good marriage. GameStop and eBay, it's not like a perfect fit. it's like if you heard home depot was acquiring williams uh sonoma is that the name of the business the paint company uh sharon williams thank you um you go okay i can see how that might work you know it's not a perfect fit but it's they're tangential businesses but you're like gamestop and ebay i personally don't see that but the author of the piece that i read in fortune uh argued that in reality ebay would effectively end up owning gamestop rather than the other way around and and while cohen is pitching a division of creating a serious competitor to amazon and the audience laughs uh using game stop stores as fulfillment centers and bringing a more entrepreneurial culture to ebay and i personally think the audience would laugh even louder the piece is really skeptical of those claims and the broader warning is really about financial engineering and market psychology because that's what we're looking at here 100 to your question who'd take on that debt well there is a narrative that has to be spun that is rooted in psychology and ends up on the desk of somebody with a pen that can issue tens a metaphorical pen tens of billions of cash in in a form of a loan and you know when highly valued companies uh realize their own future growth doesn't justify its current share price there's often a temptation to use that expensive stock to uh to buy durable cash flows elsewhere which i get i mean that bit makes sense it's a desperate swing of someone that kind of realizes the writing's on the wall yeah for some reason just the the the like latent mystique of gamestop still hangs around the stock yeah nothing to do with the business the business is like you know on a very slow descent to nothing but the stock is all is still that um still has that element of kind of potential almost in investors eyes and they're going to overreact to anything that it does so seeing them do a move like this it's not surprising really because he needs to do something yeah ebay ebay is maybe slightly an ambitious target maybe we've gone for something smaller that might have been a slightly more manageable than something five times the size of your own company but yeah i mean it's i think the aol time warner thing is a cautionary tale and um that merger at the time was really celebrated as visionary but it ended up destroying you know extraordinary amounts of shareholder value you don't but you don't even need to go back that far for yeah for uh for uh david buying a goliath like is and we just saw it this year the largest merger of the year was between uh paramount skydance and warner bros you know now in fairness with paramount skydance they had an incredible amount of funding secured from um daddy dad daddy yes northern irish there daddy daddy um yeah from dad and then from dad gulf states basically uh-huh uh so we better tell our irregular our odd listeners um that the what we're talking about was that um larry ellison is daddy our dad in this and his son was the was the orchestrator the the brains behind that acquisition but larry ellison one of the rich men in the world underwrote the deal which i guess uh was what got it over the line if your dad says you can do it you can do it it must be so embarrassing being your own self-made billionaire and go look i tell you what get your dad on the phone no self-made is generous but it does happen um this is not as legitimate as legitimate as paramount and warner bros but there is a small modicum of possibility that it could happen i don't see yeah i don't see them getting tens of billions from you know sovereign wealth funds over in the emirates and saudi and stuff but who knows right you gotta give him a b plus for vision like i mean i wouldn't say it's a perfect vision because when you say we're going to give amazon a run for their money you know that you've already to say you said a high bar is kind of underselling it but yeah okay if they repurpose the gamestop centers or shops i mean say as fulfillment centers yeah maybe but over here in ireland anyway um i don't believe the ebay brand is one that's in our consciousness which is by no means to say it isn't in everyone else's because ireland is its own island doing its own thing maybe ebay is still used in america i don't know do people see ebay as the the b plan to amazon probably but it um it seems to be like a very i bought my les paul custom electric guitar made by a very famous luthier on ebay in 1998 i think yeah some people go to it for some gems i know a mate who does a good bit of shopping on it he's going to his fashion and stuff like that he got vintage pieces but it wouldn't be my go-to but it's there it definitely has a market i think you see in In fairness, like you see places like, you know, vintage and I can't think of the other one.
35:57That coupon bot.
35:59Emmet:Because you and I, as we've ascertained in the past, we're such great shoppers. Exactly. So might. Well, Ulta Salon cut it with its new cleansed tone moisturizer cream. And you and I are just looking at each other, two Irish Celtic hairy men. I think it's the real real. Is that the one I'm thinking of? That might be a fashion. That might be something else. But anyway, there is a market for that secondhand fashion for sure. And eBay definitely has some of that. But look, anything GameStop is going to do is going to be nonsense, I believe. And it's going to be these big swings to try to take advantage of what you said.
Read the full transcript
36:37A high valuation and a stock that is very much detached from a business.
36:44Emmet:Pool days call for cookouts and lots of laundry. This Memorial Day at Lowe's, save$80 on a Charbroil Performance Series 4-Burner Gas Grill. Now just$199. Plus, get up to 45 % off select major appliances to keep dishes, clothes, and food fresh. Having fun in the sun is easy with us in your corner. Our best lineup is here at Lowe's. Valid through 527. While supplies last, selection varies by location. See associate or lowes.com for details. Mike, you mentioned profit earlier, and i'm thinking would i do a following profit or is there something else we should pow wow about no dude because i think it's a very uh pertinent time we were talking about pricing momentum and fundamentals momentum just 10 minutes ago so we were very much profit okay here's my script right folks it's following profit where where mike or i spotlight one or in today's case all of profit's current 10 stocks i think i'm going to read them all out mike you're not going to give them away i am because the service carries no value whatsoever if you just get a snapshot in time it's a system what do you think when i do it i will go on ted so anyway um so here's as usual i need to caveat that we are talking about companies and knowledge that profit may sell some or all of them in a couple of weeks we do not know the profit portfolio was rebalanced in april on the 24th of april so a matter of um a couple of weeks ago and its next rebalance will be on may 22nd which is aka next friday for those of you who don't know what the heck profit is you buy 10 stocks in equal amounts and then we'll tell you what to do a few weeks later and generally that means sell these three buy these three sell these two buy these two and its returns are absolutely preposterous they're so good but it's very mathematical so added this month so 17 days ago at the time of recording three stocks were added to profit the first is ies holdings and it's up 13 second is sterling infrastructure it's up 70 and the third is vertif holdings and it's up nearly six percent they're the three stocks that are added 17 days ago um as i leaf through some of the others howmet aerospace is up 128 jabil is up 72 carpenters up 75 nvidia is up 14 you might go only 14 yeah well this is a system folks um dicom is up 21 mcores up 27 and finally wesco international is up nearly 36 but the bigger picture of profit is of staggering staggering multi-year returns and it's still only two thousand dollars but if you want a deal if you're very nice you can email frank at my wallstreet.com that's m-y-w-a-l-l-s-t.com i will always do a finding profit segment some weeks we'll just dive in and talk about a company because it usually hands up a bunch of names that we wouldn't ordinarily talk about here on Stock Club, like Jabil Circuit, up 72%.
40:10Emmet:What do they do? Or Carpenter Technology or Encore, whatever. Most of these names are new to the next person on the street. So that's finding profit. Email franklinmywallstreet.com. Very good. Yeah. And we can see it happening in real time, how much of this rally profit itself has captured because it fits into the core of what the rally is, which is very much the AI trade, the infrastructure, the infrastructure build-out and everything around that. So it's on fire at the minute. There's no denying it. Like, isn't even just April's buys have kind of been beyond belief, really, so far. I know it's only three weeks.
40:48We don't do any early victory laps, but it's nuts stuff. So, yeah, frank at mywallstreet.com. And don't forget, folks, a bubble is just a rally you missed. yeah well look george soros he famously said when i see a bubble i invest more right right on that one emma i think we'll finish up there thank you for joining me and thank you everyone for listening
41:11Emmet:in ryan reynolds here from mint mobile the message for everyone paying big wireless way too much please for the love of everything good in this world stop with mint you can get premium wireless for just 15 a month of course if you enjoy overpaying no judgments but that's weird Okay, one judgment. Anyway, give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three-month plan, equivalent to$15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com. We will talk to you next week.
From the publisher
The market is on an absolute tear right now, and it’s raising some serious questions. Lucky for you, Mike and Emmet want to upack them all.
Despite the crazy macroeconomic conditions, the market keeps performing. The Nasdaq Composite is up roughly 38% in the last year. And when you zoom in on individual stocks, things get even crazier.
SanDisk (SNDK) is up 63% in a month, 450% in six months, and an eye-watering 3,800% over the last 12 months. Micron (MU) has jumped 86% in a month and nearly 8x in a year, while Western Digital (WDC) is up around 1,000% over the same period. Even lesser-known names like AXT (AXTI) are suddenly flying, up roughly 700% year-to-date.
In fact, the top 10 stocks over the past 12 months have outperformed the top performers in the 12 month run-up to the dot-com bubble – a stat that’s hard to ignore.
So… are we in an AI bubble?
Skeptics like Michael Burry argue this rally looks even more extreme than 1999. And to be fair, many of the classic bubble ingredients are there: stretched valuations, momentum chasing, and heavy concentration in a single theme.
But there’s a strong counterargument too.
We’ve just come through a blockbuster earnings season, with the median earnings surprise hitting 6% – the best since 2022. AI demand isn’t just hype; companies are struggling to keep up. Hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL) are pouring hundreds of billions into infrastructure, signaling that this could be a real productivity revolution.Still, that level of spending raises some eyebrows.
And while AI stocks dominate headlines, there’s another side to this market.
Plenty of high-quality businesses are being left behind, with money rotating aggressively into AI. Stocks like McDonald's (MCD), Home Depot (HD), Mercado Libre (MELI), Lululemon (LULU), and Accenture (ACN) are sitting near 52-week lows – along with a host of medical leaders like Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Medtronic (MDT), and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). These are durable, proven businesses – but right now, if you’re not AI, you’re being ignored. So five years from now, would you rather own today’s high-flying AI names or these overlooked compounders trading at a discount?
And finally, we dive into one of the wildest stories in the market right now: GameStop (GME) reportedly exploring a deal to acquire eBay (EBAY). GameStop is worth about $12 billion and to pull off the deal it could end up needing as much as $65 billion. Meaning, it would likely need to issue a massive amount of new shares and take on tens of billions in debt, raising serious questions about dilution and feasibility.
We wrap with Follow Prophet.
Prophet, MyWallSt's latest investing service, is focused on delivering market-beating in less than 5 minutes a month.
Click here to join now or email frank@mywallst.com for a deal.
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00:00 Intro02:22 Nasdaq Surge Bubble Talk05:18 Semiconductor Mania Stats16:21 C3 AI as Bubble Counterpoint21:43 Undervalued Stocks and Market Rotation24:38 GameStop Bids for eBay35:47 Following Prophet
