Are High-Octane Stocks Back In Favor? Sandisk, Robinhood, Dell In Focus

25:48Mike Webster:Sloppy. Sloppy and choppy, right. so it's one of those things where there's so many of them they might not look that bad but if you're going to trade the chips trade the ones that look good now let's go to back to video the uh that one had a terrible close to it not terrible not an ideal close uh at all going into a weekend but let's look at it on a weekly chart sure Sure. So when you look at it from this standpoint and focus on the fundamentals on the bottom, the quarterly numbers, the earnings and the sales, and I love how we laid this out with market surge where you can see so far back, all that green on there.

26:32And then this basic acceleration, yes, 112 is less than 130, but the concept of a pickup and the acceleration. Also, we've got that green line on there, the earnings line. Really pay attention to that. We've got it on all the weekly charts. And you want to see, is it stable? Yes, it's stable. Do you see an acceleration in there? Yes, we see that. And the most important thing, the sales down at the bottom. I mean, those are huge numbers. So if this thing can't work out with numbers like that, and being liquid and being the largest market cap and all, then there's a problem with the AI trade. Doesn't mean the AI bubble has burst.

27:10Yes, we're in an AI bubble. Could it last for a decade? Could it last for two decades? I don't know. I don't care. The charts are going to tell us it's going to last as long as it's going to last. I'm not going to play the game of, oh, it's going to last until the summer of 2032. The charts will tell us. If this can't work out, if it just bases, that's okay. But if it were to fall apart, let's go back to the daily. And let's say it were to completely fall apart. That's telling you that the best stock out there in this space from a fundamental standpoint, or one of the best, if that can't go, then why would some also ran be able to go?

27:58And I think that's how Bill would be looking at it because he would always say, well, what's the leader in the group doing? And he would look at it more from a fundamental standpoint rather than, oh, this other one went up so much further and faster. It's a slower mover now that it's this type of market cap. But on balance, I think it looks good. Not happy with how it closed. So I reduced a little bit going into the weekend there. But it's gone up to three days in a row. So it's entitled to not have a good close, but still would have preferred something better. RS line looks good, but not great.

28:33Why does it look good? Looks good because it's the highest point over the last couple of months, but it's still lower than where it was at our last. the last time it was up in this price area. So it's just telling you it's a mixed bag there. It's not clear cut. You'd rather have an RS link clearly at new highs.

28:54Mike Webster:Yeah. Another theme, Webby, worth pointing out on the move this week, and that is Bitcoin. How is this contributing to the market environment in your view? Well, I did trade it this week. I backed out of it today just because of the gap down and all. I don't think it looks terrible. I was on the fence about it. It was just that I had other places to put my money, and I'm not a fan of gap downs. But it wasn't a major gap down, especially considering that it was Bitcoin. I like this. It's a nice cup with handle. I know my pattern wreck is drawing it as a cup, but I see a cup with handle that it already broke out of yesterday.

29:39So it's not broken down from there. Let's take a look at Ethereum because I always like to look at both of those together. Sure. Just to see if there's any clues on there. And the same basic thing there. You had this little gap down. So let's go back to the iBit. I think this is good for the psychology because you want to remember, there's so many people that are so heavy in crypto that also trade. We trade, but I'm totally agnostic on it. I know, you know, Jim Ropal, a big fan, and he's a big fan of us. Like, it's a mutual thing, and you've got your monthly. When is that? Is it the beginning of every month?

30:19Mike Webster:Yeah, monthly market report. It's usually the first Monday of the month, but this time around, it's going to be September 14th. So, look at your calendars out there. Oh, okay. Since next week is the Monday holiday, so we're doing it. That makes sense. Yeah, that makes total sense. so with um you know he he's heavy into crypto so he's got a different bin and he's more in the fundamentals of it most of us are just agnostic on it we're just trading the chart yeah part is fine right now not ideal i would say if it stays above the lows of this week you're still fine if it goes back below that then you're still in this basic uh uh period let's go to the weekly on this to kind of see the context of what's been going on so to the oh you're right ugly right so you've got all these people that have lost money that are if they're sitting with it most people who trade or invest in bitcoin they just sit with it and that's you know the people that did that early are just sitting sitting pretty uh and you know they got low cost basis and all but if you bought up there and you're underwater and it's starting to lift it's giving you more buying power mentally and physically with your account to just buy more stock so i think it's a good thing when crypto is moving in this it's a nice to have not a need to have the same thing with the smhs you know which you asked about a little bit ago i would like these as a group to move and and have another run up, but they don't have to.

31:52We could still have the rest of the market. It's not all just about chips right now. You have plenty of other places and it would be nice to see if software could actually continue that move. Let's go to CRM for a second. And this was one of the ones that we've talked about recently. And I like how that's still holding in there, especially on a weekly it's it's two weeks tight in there again at equilibrium and you get that nice earnings line so when you're analyzing things focus on the ones that have the good fundamentals like this one with this really nice acceleration in the earnings the stock has been a dog for you know a year or so but now it's it looks like it's changing its character and i don't care i i don't have a you know, I'm not trading this one right now, but so I don't care from that standpoint, from my account standpoint, but it would be good to see this hold in tight for another week and then give us an entry point.

32:53And it's also just good for the general market because you don't want to see, you know, themes like this just rolling over. But you want to put more weight on the higher market cap ones. At one point, this was a huge market cap, not as much anymore. Let's go to something like Apple.

33:19And the Apple and then NVIDIAs and the Googles and the Metas, those are the ones you want to kind of look at to see how are they doing. And this one is base building. On a daily basis, it didn't look that good, but from a weekly basis, it's just base building. When you look at all of the megas and what you can do is in market school, or you don't have to do this right now, but in market surge, you can just run a screen for the most liquid or you can run a screen for the biggest market cap and just kind of play through those to get a sense. And that's something that I've always done. And I think Bill would do it in his own way to just kind of understand how the indexes are built.

34:03And you want to focus on those. Because, look, if Apple were to dive down to 230 or pull up Microsoft, if that were to fall down to 400, and then all the other ones were to come down, it would be very hard to see these indexes lift. So it is important, even if you're not trading them, to just watch them to get that context.

34:23Mike Webster:David Booth, the founder of trillion-dollar asset manager Dimensional, has a new book out called Stay Calm. This isn't a book about how to invest. It's a book about how to think about investing. It's not about picking stocks. It's about taking stock of what really matters. Investing is fundamentally about managing uncertainty, and so is life, which means that you may have spent your life developing your skill set for investing without even realizing it. Learn about the science and mindset behind building true wealth in Stay Calm by David booth at staycominvesting.com. Yes, well said. Okay, let's pivot to a couple of individual movers that we want to highlight.

35:02Mike Webster:Seems like some of the high octane names back in focus, Webby. Look at this move from Sandisk today up almost to 12%. Not the prettiest setup, but it did go relatively tight and actionable today for aggressive investors. What's your read on what's going on here? Yeah, so I have a position in this. I started buying it in the pre-market and the other ones, the DRAMs and the Microns and the SKHY basically, you know, shotgun, but concentrated more on the Sandus. And it was a risky trade. So let's go back to, yeah, to the Sandus. You were at a moment where the Bulls and the Bears were in a clear battle, like this was the line.

35:58And I was looking at it saying, okay, I think it's going to break higher. I thought it was a 50-50 shot, but I went pretty heavy with it because I had some good levels of stops of knowing where i was wrong and i think i said on ibd live this morning that even though i normally don't short if this would have rolled back down back underneath there i probably would have flipped and gone short it because this is not like you said it's not a good setup you can see that there is kind of a double bottom with the handle you can see there's kind of a cup with the handle but that doesn't look like any of them that i've seen in model books this but it I will say in the 1997 to 1999 or 2000 timeframe, charts like this would work all the time.

36:44And that's why I decided to go ahead and play it because there's a playbook for normal times and that's for normal times. We're not in normal times. So I took out, you know, my 1999 playbook and I just said, this is so important and the bulls need to step up here or they are going to, this thing is going to roll and not in a small way. Let's go to the weekly. You got to remember if, and this could still fail. Like we could come in Tuesday, it could be gapped down 20%. This isn't a position and it's a terrible looking chart. There's good things about it, but if you're just honest with yourself and look, I've got a big position in it and I'm just being honest with myself.

37:23It's not a good, it's not a good looking base. Although there's some positives, a lot of positives but more negatives is run up so much not too long ago it was 40 50 dollars now it's you know close to 2000 it could roll and when charles and i did a study of the the best winners you know which this one certainly would qualify when they rolled all of our model book stocks they would come down on average about 72 percent and so just imagine where that would where that would put you. And that's on average. Some of them would go down a lot more than that. That's in the cards for this if this doesn't work out.

38:02And that's why if, you know, shorts were probably salivating and they got, you know, they had their day in the woodshed today, but who knows? Like, I'm not counting this trade until the trade is locked in and done because it is so volatile. So if you're trading this space, you've got to be very careful and you do want to take some profits It's when you've got them just to lock them in. We put this on Swing Trader as well and put DRAM, which is kind of probably the safer way. And I'm trading that one as well just because it's an ETF. So you get some balance there. If, you know, today Sandus went up more than Micron.

38:41And so then you've got that in there. And the next day Micron will go up more than Sandus. So this, I think, is a better way of playing it. And you said something at the beginning that was so key is the tight area. that when you get it tight like that, and especially if you were to visualize what the ATR was, the average true range of it getting tighter and tighter, all sorts of ways of looking at it. If you use Bollinger bands, you can do that. I've got some indicators I haven't released yet that are ATR based that would tell you that it was tightening up. At that point, it could break either way and you just, you pick a side and you start going and if it starts going in that direction, you add to it and that's what I did.

39:20We'll see how it plays out, but you do when it's something this volatile and could go the other way. Look at when it hit 6 ,204. When it was at that peak, it looked great. And then by the end of the day, it came down. And then the next day you gapped down. So I'm not forgetting that. We could easily see it. How much was that gap? Did that gap down that day?

39:40Mike Webster:Let's check it out here. 9%. Yeah. And that's an ETF. So if it did that then, after a three-day weekend, because you got to remember, this is a u.s based three-day weekend so the rest of the world is still you know trading and then on tuesday we have to play catch up so you know if you're trading this you should go to bed scared i am you know so it is what it is but if you're going to buy this one this is really the only legitimate buy that we've had and it goes along with something you like to do of maybe not in this position with the 50-day because it's declining, but you like buying things through the 50, don't you?

40:22Mike Webster:I do. I do. I was gun-shy on SanDisk today. I was just also really busy. But yeah, I do like that versus waiting for a shorter-term moving average or a breakout to highs. So yeah, if you're going to do it, definitely a compelling time to do it. And Webby, I think this is a good sign for the market. Clearly, there's been a shift in recent months where you don't have that just widespread momentum in AI, right? It feels like investors are being more discerning. So really being selective here. But seeing those pockets and seeing this area coming back to life, I think is a really good sign if we are going to see a continuation of the AI trade, but also this bull market.

41:18Yeah. And I know people love looking at different fear, greed indicators. And you brought up the iBit, which is kind of a way of measuring how much risk on risk on is on. Yeah. And I would say another way of looking at it is just this space, because this is the heat, like even more so than the SMHs or the NVIDIAs of the world. I mean, If you are trying to get leverage without using leverage on the AI space, you're trading the memory space right now. Yeah. Doesn't mean it's going to work out. We saw what happened with IGV last week. So, you know, until the trade is locked in, it doesn't mean anything.

41:59Mike Webster:Yeah. Yeah, and I think a chart like SanDisk, of course, has its warts, but it does look better than the NBISs of the world, as well as the BEs, some of these other high-octane AI areas that are also on the move right now. But yeah, the memory area definitely stands out. I agree. I did buy BE and it looks so bad, but I was buying it this morning in a smaller way because I said, okay, if the Sandus is going to work out, this should go as well. And it was so, because I still think in the back of my mind, because back in the day, Bill had access to all of our trades, including our personal account.

42:41And so I wouldn't have put that trade on if he was still with us, because I would have been afraid that he would have seen and said, what are you doing? But you look at it and go that same concept. You want to look at things through the lens of a short. What would a short look at and what would a short be scared of? A short would be scared of it going through the 50 day and continuing. that's just like us when you know something comes down and it's back below the pivot everyone knows if you look at it through the ibd methodology lens that when you get a breakout failure that's when all of us are just puking out the stock and that's when the shorts salivate and put pressure on it it's the same thing in reverse you want to know you want to know how your enemy is thinking so the enemy being the short side if you're long or vice versa if you're you're short So you look for the different magnets.

43:3350 days a magnet. Prior days high as a magnet. The mark high there, the 253, 31, that's a magnet. And you always want to be looking for that and knowing what the other side, what is the other side scared of, and then try to capitalize on that.

43:50Mike Webster:Well, we got a bonus stock in here. So thanks for adding that on BD. Let's go to Hood because this was another sort of, I could argue, you know, high octane type name, right, Webby, that had a big breakout this week. Kind of on the crypto momentum, I think. Yeah. So we got lucky with this with Swing Trader. I put it on before the gap up. And then after I was trading it in my personal account like I normally do with all the things we add on. and then the best ones, I sell it so we can add it and then buy back 30 minutes or more after that. And I was looking at that and going, okay, I want something where I really know where the stop is.

44:35And at that point I was using the prior day's low as your stop, even though you could have used that day's low of your position trading, but from a swing trading standpoint, I wanted it tighter. I said, okay, you're at the 50 area. So that's some supporting action. You clearly have this cup, what's really a cup with handle, even though it's saying it's a cup, but you have this base here and it should move up from there. I didn't know it was going to gap up, you know, and I don't know when they're going to gap down either. So you got to take the good with the bad and then you have facts of life.

45:09So you've got this beautiful move up there. I just think it looks gorgeous, but a lot of things look gorgeous. But that's the way a model book stock looks. It was totally entitled today to come all the way down to yesterday's low or close to it. And that would have been normal and natural. The fact that it held up after that big move yesterday being only down 2%, I look at that as a big win. Now let's look at the weekly just to get the context of things. And with this, it's a little bit of the best of both worlds because it's shown that it's had a big move before. It also went through a big corrective phase.

45:51And what I like about the corrective phase is it would have scared out anybody who uses charts because living underneath that 40-week line, that black line, same thing as a 200-day or similar, that that would have scared anybody. unless you're just in it with a lower cost basis and you're just trying to hold it for a long period. That's just a different style. Nothing right or wrong about it is just different. So then you have your prior uptrend. And the way I look at that prior uptrend, it's an art, not a science, but you certainly had that prior uptrend over the last several months to the left of that cup that it formed.

46:27So it's just kind of classic there. What I don't like about it, the earnings are spotty. you get some big numbers and then you get a negative number and then a small number like i don't like that at all so it's a different quality than like the nvidia that we were looking at the sales too they're all over the place so that's and move the chart over a lot of people don't know um that you can do that so we can see the rest of the estimates oh yeah scrolling over And that's one of the great things that we added to market surge this last year is you can now see those four quarters worth of estimates on earnings and sales going forward.

47:07So if you're a market surge user, do this and put it out to where you can just see those. Now, the downside is you lose some of the left side of the chart, but I think it makes up for it here. And you can always split the difference and just go out like two quarters. I'd go back and forth on things. but that's so nice to have that information there but i don't like what i'm seeing again it's erratic yes it it picks back up three quarters from now but then it falls off really grade your stock and and uh we'll circle back to that at the end but you want to grade your stock and this is a real negative down there let's go up to the fundamental block that you had to take away yeah so with this um that area too yeah doesn't look that bad you've got that bad estimate for for 26 but on an annual basis it's not as it is as problematic as what you have with the quarterly so it's just telling and you can see that even if you didn't see those numbers down at the bottom you can just see that earnings line and look how different it it looks than the other good ones that we saw.

48:21Bill would not like that. Just telling you, he was all about the earnings line. I mean, the earnings line was, I'd say 80%, maybe 90 % of how we looked at the fundamentals. It was, if the earnings line didn't look good, it didn't matter what the return on equity was, what the margins were, any estimates. If that earnings line wasn't stable or accelerating or a turnaround situation. It was all about the earnings line. Yeah, interesting stuff.

48:52Mike Webster:And it's a very helpful tool that we have on the chart there. Okay, so we'll have to see if the momentum for Robinhood can continue. What about for traders who missed that big breakout? Should they be keeping an eye out for a follow-on entry, whether it's a shelf or some sort of other alternate entry? Without a doubt. So when you have stocks that have broken out without you, which should happen all the time, I mean, that's just the reality of trading because you can't kiss all the babies and you can't buy everything. Then when it moves, that becomes your best shopping list, right? Because now you're just looking for an entry.

49:34Well, where's the entry? There isn't one yet. but like you said could form a shelf could go sideways for a little bit have a shakeout upside reversal that would be ideal and if you're in it that's where you can add to it if you're not in it that's where you get into it you don't just go and buy it here because it's it's up a bunch on the week and it looks good and looks like it's going to go higher because the risk involved you don't really know you're wrong until it takes out yesterday's low and really even closes below there so it just puts yourself you put yourself in a bad situation now every once in a while I'll just tell you Bill would just go ahead and buy him up there if the fundamental situation if this was an A plus stock on a fundamental basis and it broke out there like that he would just buy him extended if he got shaken out he would just buy them back you know when they set back up so you do need to be flexible but this doesn't warrant it you know in my opinion

50:36Mike Webster:Okay. Let's also take a look at Dell because this was a very compelling move this week after earnings. Let's take a look at the weekly move here, a 15 % for the week. So this is an absolute standout in the tech space. Webby, your thoughts on how traders should be thinking about this one? Yeah, I have a position in as well. I think Michael Dell is just a genius and such a hard worker. And he's just he's one of the best out there. You don't see him much in the press, or at least I don't or he doesn't get a lot of press. Except lately, because he donated billions to children for the Trump accounts.

51:25I oh you know what you're right yeah this that's right I totally forgot about that uh wow what a what a great guy and he's an Austin dude from what I what I gather have not seen him yet um so with uh with this one man as frustrating as can be it was a high tide flag in spirit because it had that rapid advance and then let's go to the weekly because it's a little easier to see the flag there you had your rapid advance kind of a longer advance than the normal so kind of like zenith back in the 50s or 60s which was a a flag that was a little bit slow uh long but it was much slower than this one but so you do see some that are a little bit longer then it went uh sideways but it went sideways too long to be a classic high tide flag but it was in the spirit of it because it was trading at around 140 now it's trading in the 400 range and holding in there so it's a new equilibrium but it was trying to go got turned away trying to go turned away over and over and over again the more you look at that chart if you go through a day by day man you can just see a million entry points and a million times you're getting chopped up So with this, because of that selling, let's go back to the daily.

52:50Mike Webster:And I would say, too, context. You're always big about context, what's going on in the market. I mean, this was the period where in June, July, just a massive sell-off in so many of the AI leaders. So yes, it was very choppy, but we were all talking about the fact that this held up so well compared to all of those other AI names that just got torched, quite frankly, off the highs. That's the best point. Yes, exactly what you said. And the way to see that, so let's say you're looking at a stock and you don't remember that. Like, let's say you just stumbled on Dell for the first time. Well, look at the RS line, because that tells you exactly what you were just saying, because it's versus the S &P.

53:36Now, if you change the RS line, which you can in market surge, we don't, let's not do it, but you can change it to a different instrument. You can change it to, let's change it to DRAM. Okay. Change it to DRAM. Why not?

53:54Mike Webster:No, R. there we go so now instead of comparing its relative strength versus the s &p it's going to change it versus d-ram and then see how much stronger that is yeah that's something that actually i designed a couple decades ago for institutional product and we copied it over here it was a really good idea but in practice just going and doing all the clicks i don't end up doing it because it's a drag and takes that time to go through. So if we ever, if we got the time, if we just made it like a little click that we could just switch real, you know, to the sector or to a separate ETF, that's, you know, probably on our to-do list to do.

54:40So the RS line and new highs, so much different than, what was that one that I was saying that, oh, NVIDIA. Let's look at the NVIDIA for a second. So look at the RS line there versus its old peak. It's still far away from it. And then let's go back to Dell. So this is where it's saying Dell is stronger. That is now at new highs over that. Yes, our stock is higher, so you got to take that into account. But still, it has a better overall look with the RS line. This is not in position right now you want to now that it's gone back above 500 if it can form something sideways here preferably living above 500 then that'll give you a chance to get into it but i wouldn't be stretching up here uh to buy it right now but this is again good for the ai theme that if the more of these that end up holding up the better it is that uh we'll get some new merchandise to be trading.

55:41Okay.

55:42Mike Webster:Webby, I think it's time for your charts. Yeah, I just looked at the time there. I'll try to be quick. Sorry about that. No, we have a lot to go over. I was asking you a lot of questions. Okay. Can you see my chart? Yep, we've got Spy Weekly. Cool. So this is the part of the show where we go and we look at a bunch of different charts. We just try to isolate each one and just ask ourselves, what is it telling us? If it's telling us anything at all, and then we step back afterwards and just look at the mosaic of everything to get context of what to expect next week. So this is the Bob Weir, take a step back portion where we're looking at the weekly candles to see what it tells us.

56:22So this is a good but not great weekly candle. Why is it good? Because it shook out below the lows of last week and then closed up with a positive body, meaning that our close was higher than our open. That's why it's blue. And our bottom wick is longer than our top wick, another positive thing. But in the scheme of things, you look at that, it doesn't give you a clear expectation that it moves higher next week. A sideways to higher is the image that it gives you. Now, if this little box there, our little body of the candle was at the absolute top, it would give us a clear expectation that it wants to go to 780, but that's not what happened.

57:02That's is what we wanted to happen. Now, the NASDAQ, a little different, right? Because it's an inside week, so it's more contained. I prefer having shakeouts rather than inside weeks, but inside weeks are good as well. And this body is sitting up a little bit higher and your bottom wick is a little bit longer, and especially relative to your top wick. So this one actually gives a little bit of a better look, but it's not compelling where it looks like it's just going to break up to that 27 ,000, but still positive to sideways. Now, our next thing, we have these regressions on here for SPY and NASDAQ, but it's not enough time yet.

57:44But still, I think it was 29 days. So I'm starting it off here at this July 29th and went out this far just to start giving us a sense of what the trend is looking like. And is it abnormally weak grab normally strong we're going to continue changing our end date uh until it gets to 50 days then we'll stop it there the concept here is that normal is around the regression line which is your white line or your your home base so it's looking normal within this current trend it kind of got excited here and it's just chopping along so let's um and let me go out to this because this is going to be interesting in a moment.

58:27So here was our other regression that we had starting back in on April 8th and it went out 50 days. It was trading nicely in there, really living up in the top part for most of it. Then over here, do you see when your high goes underneath that green line, that's your minus one standard deviation. Once it starts living under there for a number of days, and I don't have the exact number yet, it's ongoing research, you've got to throw it out and say, okay, this doesn't mean it's going to fall apart, but it's no longer in that channel. And it's no longer, its home base is unknown at that point. It's homeless.

59:03So at this point, it was really became kind of homeless because your high was underneath there for one, two, three, four days at this point. Yes, you started moving up, but it was pretty much broken. So just remember that because we're going to look at RSP in a second and look at it that way. So the same thing here with the NASDAQ. It's earlier one, fell out of bed here. And on this day with that type of close there on the 25th, you would have said that that trend is done. This one is right there at home base. So looking good, but again, we don't have the full 50 days. Let's go over to the RSP.

59:45So this one is really on the fence. I would say the amount of time that your high has been underneath that, you pretty much have to throw it out. I am just, since it's not set in stone how many days under there, I am reserving the right to say, okay, if we get a major gap up on Tuesday and get back up in this area, then I'll say, okay, we momentarily fell out of the channel and we're going back up there. But I think that's just hopeful. I think this one is dead. Certainly by Tuesday, if we're not up there, it's dead as a doornail. But this was a nice, really nice trending line here. And it kept going back to home base there.

1:00:29So this is kind of a model to look at in the future. So we will move on to our 50 % retracement. Nothing to see here. We're living, what is it, the Arctic? I think Justin taught me that, Arctic and Antarctica. So it's living up there above the North Pole, or that's a good thing. We want it to at least be in the Northern Hemisphere. If you don't know what I'm talking about, this is your high, this is your low. The middle point there is your 50 % retracement. The concept is you want to live up in the Northern part, above the 50 % retracement, not live down here. That's a sign of strength.

1:01:10all right so now we have our next one this is the spy levels and i had a bunch of them on there and i removed some because it was getting a little bit cluttered but you could really look at this and say yesterday's low is an important line where you'd want to put it there but i'm just keeping right now this low from back on august 4th to the upside we want to take out the highs from the 28th. Let's go look at the NASDAQ. This one, I left a few more on there. So the highs there from the 28th are where you want to get above the low here from yesterday. You don't want to go below and certainly not below this area over here.

1:01:53And if we get down there, we've got bigger problems. Okay. So explain the Webinacci to people. Oh, gosh. Well, we're taking a look at the Fibonacci moving averages.

1:02:08Mike Webster:And at the bottom, it's basically adding up how many are stacked in the proper order. So if it's kind of a magnet at the top, that's a good thing, right? That means that we have a lot of them stacked in the proper order. Perfect. So right now through this lens, all looks good. We're at the 45, which is as high as this indicator goes. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. And that one looks good too, as high as it can go. So it's good to look at it through that lens. But let's take a look at the RSP. A bit of a problem now if I zoom out a little bit. so again that white line is your current price and the other ones are are fibonacci numbers so a three a five and eight 13 21 and so on are all these lines and you want them the shorter ones above the longer ones and that's what that thing as you were saying tallies up so when it came down here like this it's telling you that you're starting to roll and how do you get in a downtrend well you start to roll and then you keep rolling so this happened over here and we were able to snap back out of it.

1:03:23Let's hope that happens, but hope isn't what we'd like to trade off of. And then here's our last one. Why don't you tell the folks what that is and analyze it for us?

1:03:33Mike Webster:All right. Well, that is the keep it simple 21 only chart. And we are above a rising 21 day, but a little bit of a test earlier this week, Webby, so it hasn't just been a clear-cut, clean trend above the 21-day, but we do have a couple of closes above that level, so we want to see that continue. Okay, now we'll do the same for the NASDAQ. Well, that's been even tougher for the NASDAQ to hold the 21-day. It hasn't been a reliable support level recently, which I think has, you know, this is a great visual representation of how tricky it's been for active traders. We love using the 21 day to keep us on the right side of the trend, but we've been seeing a lot of chop.

1:04:23Mike Webster:So we are back above it. Let's see if we can get a few more closes above that level. And I'd also love to see that 21 day start sloping even more in an upward angle. David Booth, the founder of trillion dollar asset manager Dimensional, has a new book out called Stay Calm. This isn't a book about how to invest. It's a book about how to think about investing. It's not about picking stocks. It's about taking stock of what really matters. Investing is fundamentally about managing uncertainty, and so is life, which means that you may have spent your life developing your skillset for investing without even realizing it.

1:05:02Mike Webster:Learn about the science and mindset behind building true wealth in Stay Calm by David Booth at staycalminvesting.com. Webby froze. He's going to be back, though. I know he's going to be back. So as we wait for him to get his other charts up, it's up to me to filibuster. We have a couple more Webby charts that we like taking a look at. We've got the Webby RSI coming up, also the off high indicator. So we're going to be looking at those couple of charts. And let's see in the chat here. Okay, yep. So he's frozen on our producer's end as well. Let's see if we can ping him, Rachel. Okay, he dropped.

1:05:46Mike Webster:So it is just me. All right. So we've got a couple of charts left that we are going to be taking a look at. And Webby also said that he wanted to look at the RSP on the off high indicator. So we've got that to look forward to. And he's back. I'm sorry. I don't know what happened there. So you froze right when the screen share ended. Oh, okay. Yeah. That was weird. In case you were in the middle of saying anything. Okay. I was just saying you did a great job. Okay. Can you see this? Yes. We've got the Webby RSI. Okay. So you're doing a great job. It's your birthday. No, it's okay. Okay. All right.

1:06:30Keep going.

1:06:31Mike Webster:The audience wants to hear. It's called the Webby RSI. They want to hear from Webby. Okay. All right. So this is one of my indicators, and it's measuring what Allie was just talking about, your low versus your 21-day, and that's the little blue thing at the bottom. So that's measuring it in terms of average true range or ATRs that you see over on the right side. In a nice trend like we had over here, you will see that move up to two or three ATRs where your low is above your 21 day. That's the power that you want to see at the beginning of a trend. And then it will continue on and you want to see this what I call a wall of blue right there.

1:07:12Now, we were starting to get that here. It wasn't as powerful as we wanted, but it was acceptable. And now we just have this little thing. At least we get these, you know, like a couple bricks in the wall right here and they're building on each other. But we really need to see that expand. And that's just a visual representation of what we see with the low versus the 21 day. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. And same thing here. We had a wall of blue back here, and that's where you're going to make the bulk of your money. And then during these other times, that's where you kind of get chopped up and it's starting to get going.

1:07:50And some people might say, well, why not just wait for the wall of blue? Well, if you wait for the wall of blue, lots of times things are going to be out, you know, extended and out of position. So that's why you got to get started as they start building those bricks there. Let's go to what I think is the most important thing right now is the Bob Marley off-high indicator. What this measures is just when it's coming down, how far is your low versus your high in terms of ATRs? So 0 to 4 ATRs is the green area, 4 to 8 is your yellow area. If you get below that, then it's the red area. so with this what you want to do is your first pullback first couple pullbacks kind of set the stage for the character of that particular phase of the market and you don't want it to be getting bigger or or larger in terms of ATRs so this one here set it at 2.2 ish or 2.3 and then it came down much lower down to about four and a half ATRs so that was more than what you wanted but it was kind of telling you, okay, you're going to deal with some chop.

1:09:05What's nice is the next time it came back to that same level, which was constructive, you don't want it getting bigger. And then our other pullbacks have been shallower. That's constructive and what you want to see, and that can last a lot longer than you think. And just here's some historical to just kind of look at how they are. Like when this was coming back from this quick little destruction that we had once you moved up here, this level here at about three and a half ATRs became kind of your line in the sand for quite some time. Let's look at the NASDAQ. And the NASDAQ here, this is what you don't want to see.

1:09:45The first time down, you hit this level, then you went below it, then you went below it, and then you went below it. That's the opposite of what you want to see. And it's why we're seeing it so much chalk. Now, this was the one that I wanted to show. The RSP is quite different for the first time. Our first pullbacks were really shallow in this kind of two and a half range. It's not like if it pulls back 2.5 one time and the next time it's 2.55 that it's to be concerned with. It's more just visually. Is it hitting lower lows? And this one was a little concerning here because it was lower than the other ones but it was still it was only it wasn't even three atrs off high but this falling out this week it put us down to just visually you can see that that's out of character uh from what we had seen before so i am concerned uh with that but uh but that said that that's that's where we're at any other questions on the market before we get into birthday stuff?

1:10:50Mike Webster:Well, one is you wanted to talk about the VXUS. Did you want to bring that up real quick? Yeah. Can you pull that up? I forgot to mention that. I'm sorry. I forgot too. So with the general market, I like to look at, I have a bunch of ETFs. I've got a hundred or so of them. Maybe I'll share them at some point. I need to make it a little bit more complete. Justin has a list of a whole bunch of equally weighted ones that I need to add into there. But I like looking at this as just the total international scene to get a sense for what's the rest of the world doing, especially going into a three-day weekend where we're closed and the rest of the world, as far as I know, I think they're all open.

1:11:33What does it look like? I would be more concerned if this was in a very vulnerable position, but this looks like it's ready to break out and go on another leg. So that's another thing is just as far as the health of the market. Well, if you're not trading international stuff, does it really apply to you? Yeah, I think it does because it's just like anything else. It's like the crypto space. Even if you're not trading crypto, if that's going in the right direction, it's more people are, as you said, it's more of a risk on type of thing. So if this were to collapse next week, then you have to take the good with the bad and the bad with the good.

1:12:12So that would not be a good thing. And especially if we took out this week's lows, that would just put you more in a base building situation or correction. So it looks really set up. And I think that's another good sign for things to come. But that's what the, you know, my Ted Lasso glasses is half full. And let me just say, Ted Lasso season four is really good. I was concerned that it might not be. Have you been watching it?

1:12:43Mike Webster:I watched the first two seasons. Oh. So, yeah, I know. I guess I need... And it was only super recent, I feel like, within the last year. So I'm late to the Ted Lasso game. I'm disappointed in you. But, yeah, I guess I need to catch back up. But, yeah, I feel like with a lot of shows in general, like the first season or two are usually the best. So it's not like a Ted Lasso thing you're concerned about season four. It's like in general, you know, can they keep it as good? They waited for the season four. Like it was thought to be over. And anyways, the one other one on Apple TV, because we did talk about Apple earlier, shrinking, I think is the best show out there.

1:13:26Period. Can't wait for the next season. So as far as with the market, we're kind of at this important point where we're set up to go on another leg. Spend some time this weekend. I know I say this often going back to 1999. I just go to January of 1999 and advance forward one day at a time. Have a little notebook next to you and just make observations go, oh, okay. Downside reversal. What ended up happening? Upside reversal. What happened? Oh, let's check out this checklist, the Webby checklist. And nothing worked. And then try your own things. You might discover something. That's how you discover new things is just looking at things.

1:14:06And in this work on this follow-through day for the Vegas workshop, again, it's on, if it makes sense for you, it's on September 25th and 26th. The speaking is on the 26th. The 25th is just an evening cocktail reception where we all get together. It's a lot of fun. We've got lots of great speakers. And it's something we always look forward to. So I'm doing this thing on the follow-through. So I'm going through all of history again and looking at it. And Justin's giving me all the dates. And there's nothing better than just going back and just with an open mind, just saying, forget what I thought about before.

1:14:46What am I seeing? And there's some cool things that I'm seeing that we'll talk about in the future. But with the market, we're set up. And again, ultimately, I think we end up with the last tail end of 1999. And you want to have an open mind for that. So if you get your signals, your checklist, or whatever you're using, the trend change checklist I did at that time, that if those hit, you want to be putting on that gas pedal. If you've been chopped to death and are frustrated, you can just dial things back. If you want to buy 100 shares, maybe buy 20 shares, buy 10 shares, buy one share. Just stay flexible because you don't want to have everything rip without you.

1:15:32But you also don't want to be up to your eyeballs at that last shakeout in 99 where you're like, and we don't have to go back to it, but that last shakeout before it went higher, you'd have been like, I'm out of this. I'm just going to go on vacation because I'm done with this. And then that's when it goes. And the last thing I wanted to talk about along those lines is it was a bill thing. And Justin brought it up this week and it made me think of it. Bill would always talk about the head fakes and he would talk about it from a basketball standpoint of, you know, they'll fake right one time, then they'll fake right another time.

1:16:05So the defender is sitting there going, okay, they're going to be faking this way. And then they reverse it. And that I think is what's happening. And then they go the other way and they lose the defender. I think that's what's happened in the market over the last few weeks where we had a follow-through day or a follow-through day in spirit that ends up getting you tripped up and then it gets you tripped up. And I think we're at this point now where everyone that I talk to or I see, not everyone, a lot of people are just super negative on the market. it, I think that's a good thing because then those are the people they're going to have to chase later.

1:16:43And those are the people that are going to be short that are going to get squeezed if we go up. But, you know, we don't know how that how that's going to play out.

1:16:54Mike Webster:So, yeah, we'll keep an open mind. I know we're running late, but I just want to say what was Chloe's birthday like? Well, her party's actually on Monday. Oh, yeah. So, yeah, her birthday, we went to her pediatrician appointment because I have the day off. So, you know, we got to get those doctor's appointments in. But she's perfect and wonderful. How is she in the percentiles and all of that stuff? She's like 60th-ish percentile in weight, 75th in height, and 80th in head circumference. The girl's got a big brain. Oh, she's a smarty. She's got a big brain. There you go. Like mommy and daddy. That's a really good thing.

1:17:35Mike Webster:She's perfect. She's perfect. That's wonderful. I'm blessed beyond measure. You know, all the late nights, you know, all the things, all the work behind the scenes, it makes it just so worth it. I love her so much. She's doing this thing now because I'm just going to go ahead and answer your question. What's she doing right now? She gets so excited for me to get off of work. She starts telling my mom or dad bye-bye like around five. she's like all right bye bye you can leave now and um you know whenever i get a chance to see her either at the end of the day or quickly in the middle of the day and i i pick her up she's she turns my face towards her and gives me a kiss it's just melts my heart are you kidding beyond belief yeah you guys have that on video we don't you gotta get that on video like asap That's, oh my God.

1:18:30I know.

1:18:30Mike Webster:The kiss is just, it melts me. Yeah. Without even being prompted. You know, she wants to give me a smooch. It's adorable. Oh, that's so wonderful. She's the best. So lucky. One last thing that I do want to say along lines of celebration. My parents celebrated their 59th anniversary. They are hardcore fans of you. They also put up with me. and they're always like well he does such a great job and you did okay well no no yeah they like both of us biggest fans but uh they have their 59th wedding anniversary very proud of them that's doesn't happen to a lot of people it's amazing and then switching gears this weekend a great webby rambles on drops if you missed last week's that one was great as well and you know i don't say that all the time it was how to grade a stock we get that question all the time probably more questions than any other you know any other request was for how to grade a stock so that one came out last week it's also on my x handle which is mwebster1971 the youtube channel is webby5150 so this week please watch this one it is so good it's for you've got three days to watch it it's two hours long and what it is is this gentleman uh found a model book one of bill's original model books at a library those are like impossible to get and there's one other one at the dc library the library of congress so his original green model book is there if you happen to live in that area you can go and see it but this one is a digital download from and it was actually a daily graph so if people don't know what daily graphs is that was that's market search so it was daily graphs then it was daily graphs online which i was heavily involved with then market smith i've been market surge so it was one of our original things and what i do is i go through it and i walk through how to use the model book what you should do and and i just think it's great i'm just so happy to to have that out there so um watch that absorb it and actually do the work of, you know, and my suggestion is take each stock and do 15 to 20 minutes a day and analyze it.

1:20:55And if it starts getting boring or tedious, take a break for a week or two and then go back to it. You will learn more from doing model book studies than than anything else. And that's all I got to say, because we're really late. So sorry about talking so much.

1:21:10Mike Webster:No, it's always a good time. And if you want to get Webby's latest study on his research that he mentioned, if you want to see that live in Vegas, go to investors.com slash FCVegas. It's usually only available to our Founders Club members, but we are opening up the event to non-Founders Club folks. So if you want to be there, you want to see the team in person and get some great research, not only from Webby, but other amazing speakers, you can learn more by going to that website. So we'll leave it at that. Thanks so much, Webby. Hope you have a great weekend and a great long weekend. We'll see you next time, everyone.

1:21:55Mike Webster:That's it from us for today. And we'll see you back here Tuesday.

1:22:14Mike Webster:This show is for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing should be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Any securities and investment strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Make sure to consider consulting with your financial advisor before making investment decisions. David Booth, the founder of trillion dollar asset manager Dimensional, has a new book out called Stay Calm. This isn't a book about how to invest. It's a book about how to think about investing. It's not about picking stocks. It's about taking stock of what really matters.

1:22:44Investing is fundamentally about managing uncertainty, and so is life, which means that you may have spent your life developing your skill set for investing without even realizing it.

1:22:54Mike Webster:Learn about the science and mindset behind building true wealth in Stay Calm by David Booth at staycalminvesting.com.