August Ends On Sour Note; Expedia, DR Horton, Argenx In Focus

29 Aug 2025 · 1 h 6 min · 23 chapters

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In short

Market wrap for Aug 29, 2025 (Labor Day weekend) plus sector and stock setups. Focus on “expectation breaker” action, rotation away from mega-cap tech, and selective opportunities in travel, homebuilding, and biotech.

Guests

Mike Webster (“Webby”), senior market strategist (IBD-style technical framework; references William O’Neill “fish story” and market-school rules). No other guest named.

Key claims

  • Indices were weak into the weekend (NASDAQ -1.15%, S&P -0.6%, Dow -0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.5%), but major selloff didn’t occur and NASDAQ stayed above the 21-day moving average.
  • Three-day weekend risk: gap effects; prefer defense.
  • Small/mid-caps (IWM/Russell) look healthier for ~4 weeks; money flowing there.
  • VIX not extreme; volatility elevated mainly due to the down day.
  • Regression/weekly candle analysis suggests mixed-to-negative near-term for SPY/NASDAQ, with caution on Qs.

Notable examples

  • Expedia (EXPE): stair-stepping; consider swing trade if it clears recent highs; earnings already behind.
  • D.R. Horton (DHI): long base (~50 weeks) forming a potential handle; cyclical turnaround not yet confirmed.
  • Argenx (ARGX): unusual “three weeks tight” then gap up; quarterly sales/earnings growth highlighted; needs research; entry not clean.
  • Sector ETFs: ITB (homebuilders) flat after +5.3% Friday; XLF (financials) broke Friday high; XLE (energy) “setup week” but hard to trade; XLRE (real estate) positive; XBI/biotech mentioned as improving.
  • Bonus: Tempest AI noted for very high ATR (~8), limiting suitability.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Market Overview: August's Conclusion

0:47 to 4:00

Discussion on the negative market trends as August ends, including index performances.

“is Mike Webster, otherwise known as Webby, our senior market strategist.”

Expectation Breakers and Market Sentiment

4:00 to 6:28

Exploration of market expectations and the emotional impact of a poor close before a holiday.

“Like, you know, And lots of times when you get like this into a three-day weekend, people are like, I don't want anything.”

Focusing on Small Caps and Market Dynamics

6:28 to 9:47

Analysis of small-cap stocks and the flow of capital in the market.

“And frankly, really, especially with Spy, going back to that one, like you said, it was kind of a nothing burger of a day, but it's just when it happened going into a three day weekend.”

Sector Analysis and Trends

9:47 to 14:02

Discussion of various sectors, highlighting Bitcoin's performance and gold's movement.

“Nothing really looks perfect right now, which is it's OK.”

Analyzing Gold and Mining Stocks

14:02 to 15:25

Discussion on the performance and trading strategies for gold and mining stocks.

“You know, at least that's my my look at it is weird.”

Chips Sector Overview

15:26 to 17:16

Evaluation of the semiconductor sector, including recent earnings reactions.

“And sometimes it's just better to play just pure defense going into a three-day weekend than defense and offense.”

Sector Performance Review

17:17 to 20:56

Review of various market sectors' performance, including SPY and RSP.

“And it's just kind of starting to form what could be a flat base, you know, just, you know, a couple weeks into a potential flat base.”

Home Builders and Real Estate Trends

20:57 to 23:58

Analysis of the home builders and real estate sectors, focusing on key indicators.

“And so when you get little spikes like this, it's really telling.”

Interest Rates Impact on Real Estate

23:59 to 28:00

Discussion about the influence of interest rates on real estate and REITs.

“Unlike ITB, it hasn't really pulled back all that much.”

Market Insights and the Consumer Staples Sector

28:00 to 31:20

Discussion on market trends, consumer staples performance, and healthcare stocks.

“And some of them can have really long, sustained, like multi-year moves at times.”
Show all 23 chapters

Examining Expedia's Stock Performance

31:27 to 34:06

An analysis of Expedia's stock trends and its implications for the travel industry.

“You already talked a little bit about jets, kind of related.”

D.R. Horton and Home Builders Analysis

34:06 to 38:10

A look into D.R. Horton's stock performance and the home-building sector.

“Yeah, and I do still have my position in Las Vegas Sands.”

Argenx Stock Review and Market Trends

38:10 to 42:01

Discussion on Argenx's stock performance and insights into trading strategies.

“Okay, we'll go ahead and zoom back in so everyone can see here.”

Understanding ATR in Trading

42:01 to 43:11

Learn about Average True Range (ATR) and its implications for trading strategies.

“We didn't put it on Swing Trader for the same reasons why I was saying before.”

Market Overview and Transition

43:11 to 43:24

Discussion on market conditions leading to the analysis of charts.

“And that's that's what I was writing about in my column today.”

Analyzing SPY and Market Trends

43:24 to 45:52

Examine the SPY weekly charts and identify signals of market behavior.

“Okay, well, we're doing the Bob Weir take a step back looking at the weekly charts.”

Regression Analysis of Market Movements

45:52 to 47:48

Explore the use of regression analysis to understand market movements.

“Now let's go and take a look at the regression.”

Current Market Challenges and Strategies

47:48 to 52:06

Discussion on current market challenges and the importance of diverse exposure.

“that we're seeing this rotation into non-mega cap stocks.”

Key Levels and Risk Management

52:06 to 54:31

Learn about key levels in SPY and NASDAQ for risk management in trading.

“Just, you know, moving, you know, you don't always have to just say, I'm just going to buy a spy and that's it.”

Webby RSI and Market Indicators

54:31 to 56:00

Understand the significance of Webby RSI and its implications for market positioning.

“I haven't heard if she's had her baby yet or not, but we're wishing her the very best.”

Market Analysis and Performance Overview

56:00 to 58:39

An analysis of current market conditions along with insights on the NASDAQ and IWM.

“So which is down here, the little histogram.”

Preparing for the Upcoming Week

58:40 to 1:02:11

Strategies for evaluating stock performance and preparing for market changes.

“Well, that pretty much wraps it up for us in terms of our charts and analysis.”

Reflections and Upcoming Plans

1:02:12 to 1:04:21

Discussion on the stock market trends, audience engagement, and future plans.

“We waited and then we just kind of dribbled and sold a little bit here and there.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00This podcast is brought to you by MassMutual. For 175 years, MassMutual has stood for strength and stability, helping people secure their future and protect the ones they love. Learn more at MassMutual.com. That's MassMutual.com.

0:25Hello and welcome to another episode of the Stock Market Today video. We have got a show for you today because, man, August ended on a sour note. And yeah, it wasn't looking pretty out there. And we're right ahead of a three-day weekend for the Labor Day holiday. It is August 29th, 2025. and joining me as he always does on Fridays, well, almost always, unless he's on vacation, is Mike Webster, otherwise known as Webby, our senior market strategist. How you doing, Webby? Dude, I would have been doing a lot better if we had a better close going into a three-day weekend. I hate them like this, man.

0:58This is going to make for a long weekend, but we have a lot to talk about. Absolutely. And a few of the stocks that we're going to talk about today, I mean, there was a lot of destruction out there, but we'll try and look at a few bright spots, including Expedia and DR Horton. The ticker symbol there is DHI Expedia. It's EXPE and Argenix, which is a biomed biotech. ARGX is the ticker symbol on that one. But let's go ahead and start out with how the index is finished. And as you mentioned, it was it was ugly out there. So we will go ahead and pull up. I'm going to share my screen. We will pull up the NASDAQ to start.

1:40which is a lot of times where we like to start. So here is the NASDAQ. You can see that okay, right? So yeah, we got the NASDAQ composite down one point. Let's do a change date to yesterday and pretend like we're going into the weekend with that. Oh, okay. It's just that easy, right? Yeah, you can't always get what you want. But down 1.15 % on the NASDAQ composite. We had the S &P 500. That was down about 0.6%, a little bit delayed there. Dow Jones Industrial Average, not too bad, closing in the upper part of the range. This was only down 0.2%. You know, very different look there. Russell 2000, that was down about a half a percent.

2:27This has been the leader recently. You know, chips got hit hard. We'll talk a little bit about some of the sectors. That was down about 2.9%. But let's start with the market. Webby, back to the NASDAQ. What's your take? Yeah. So it was today was a mini expectation breaker, which was something that we developed together. You check it myself back when we did the IBD market school rules back in the 2011 time frame. And what this is not a major expectation breaker, but it is an expectation breaker. You got to call it the way you see it. And, you know, what that is, is when the market and you can have a negative one.

3:12and a positive one. This is a negative one. So when the market is set up to do one thing or a stock, and then it does the opposite, well, then that's an expectation breaker. Because with the close that we had yesterday going into a three-day weekend, you know, where we felt like we were a magnet to the old highs, or at least making a fresh high today, well, that didn't happen. We got a gap down, go down type of thing. Now, why it's not terrible is, you know, we didn't have a waterfall sell off, which you always can. You never know when those are going to happen. And we stayed above the 21 day.

3:52So those are two little wins in there. We kind of got the selling over with at the beginning of the day. And then we kind of just flatline, which is, yeah, it's a, it's weak, but it could have been a lot worse. Like, you know, And lots of times when you get like this into a three-day weekend, people are like, I don't want anything. Let me just, you know, reduce, reduce, reduce. And then it, you know, goes down quite a bit. So we got a little bit of a win there. But the reality is this is not how you like to go into a three-day weekend. You can't put lipstick on a pig and make it look better. Maybe you could, but, you know, that's not what we're doing here.

4:26But it's not broken. It's just bent. And, you know, we're still above the 21-day. Let's look at a few other ones. So let's look at SPY to get a little bit more context there. And then this one wasn't as bad, but it was still a mild expectation breaker. But, you know, it's kind of a nothing day when you look at this. And I do have SPY, you know, in my accounts. But this looks normal and natural. You just don't like this going into a three-day weekend just because everyone has, you know, sits around and looks at charts for three days. and then you come in with this, you know, a certain mindset on Tuesday.

5:08Also, it's only it's, you know, pretty much just a U.S.-based holiday. So then we're going to get a lot of the foreign markets still trading. And then we play catch up on Tuesday, which always makes it tricky for three day weekends, especially when it's U.S.-based because you get that gap effect and you don't know. I mean, we could just have a gap up to new highs and and just go, you know, from there. That would be great if I can if I can ask for something. That's what I would I would like for Christmas this year. Just a gap up and move up Christmas in September. So, but, you know, just to, again, put this in perspective.

5:45I mean, spy here, not even below its 10 day moving average line. So we were we were just at all time highs. I'm going to go back to a weekly chart, which you'll cover a little bit more in detail. You know, we just got back to all time highs this week. You know, fairly, fairly tight action. Again, not below the 10 day moving average line. NASDAQ, as you mentioned, that's holding above the 21 day moving average line at this point. So, yeah, it's hard to get too, you know, crazy bearish because it's like, you know, if you can't handle a pullback to the 10 day moving average line, it's hard to hold in there for much of anything.

6:28Right. Yeah. No, I would totally agree with that. And frankly, really, especially with Spy, going back to that one, like you said, it was kind of a nothing burger of a day, but it's just when it happened going into a three day weekend. I just put a lot of weight on that. And I'm not going to, when it has a good close going into a weekend, you know, a three-day weekend go, oh, that's so important. But when it has a bad close, say it's not. It's important. And so, but you're right. We're right near highs. I'm still using the 1980 precedent that we've been going over. We don't have to go back to that.

7:01But it's still, you know, the two of us are looking for a better precedent or an alternative precedent because we don't want to get married to one of them. And so we're, you know, doing a lot of work on that. We'll hopefully talk about that next week, either on IBD Live or on the SMT next Friday. But let's go to the IWM. heavy one. That's where my focus is. And that's where, you know, most of my capital is personally, as well as on Swing Trader. It's our biggest position. We reduced it a little bit. And I do have positions in this, you know, from the leverage to a futures contract to, you know, you name it.

7:41There you go. And, you know, this looks like where the capital is flowing to. So we reduced it a little bit because we had the largest size in anything than we've ever had with this. And that's on Swing Trader when you say we reduced. On Swing Trader. Yeah. Yeah, going, just reduced it. It's still in our largest position and oversized, but we just wanted to trim a little bit going into the weekend in case we got a gap down on Monday. I'd rather sell a little bit up here. But this is what I'm looking at is the leading space at the moment and treating it accordingly. So in a perfect world, you know the nasdaq just kind of cools cools off here and just kind of goes sideways i know that would break the 1980 precedent but that's fine with me and we don't have to be married to that one and the money just flows into where it hasn't been and that's what it looks like it's been doing for the last you know really four weeks and so until that trend changes this is where my focus is is the russell looking good and similar not it's not just about the russell but other small and mid-cap indexes.

8:47And this is just the one that everyone kind of knows and gravitates towards. And this is extremely healthy right there, at least for the last four weeks. Now go to the monthly, just as a refresher to everyone. This has looked good several times over the last several years and then just finds a way to fail. So I have that in the back of my mind, really the front of my mind, because it's happened so many times. But I think that's the same thing with everyone else. And I just have a feeling that you've got, you know, a lot of people short, either a true short or just short by having not having the exposure there and, you know, underweight or zero weight in this space.

9:31But just a little bit of capital going that way goes a long way. So we'll see how this one plays out. And I think there's a lot of areas that we're going to talk about, like the home builders and the financials and things that there's a lot of in this space. And those are looking nice, but not perfect. Nothing really looks perfect right now, which is it's OK. Doesn't always have to be. But let's go ahead and also take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Again, 30 stocks. You know, it does a pretty good job of being representative, but it can have its faults as well, especially as a price weighted index, as you've mentioned, maybe once or twice.

10:11This is still in the range of that big Friday. It hasn't even broken out of that range yet. How I feel about the Dow is I don't use it at all. I don't use it when it wants to make me feel good or bad. And, you know, so I just price weighted 30 stocks handpicked by a group of people. No, thank you, man. I don't I'm just not going to use it at all. Well, since we did talk about the small caps, what about the mid caps? Kind of a similar look there. Yeah, very similar. And so that's what you want to see is, you know, variations on the small mid caps. There's tons of ETFs that you want to be seeing that same basic thing.

10:46I gravitate towards trading IWM because, frankly, that ETF has tighter spreads. I have nothing against MDY other than it's just bigger spread. So if you're going to be in and out of something, you'd rather be in with something that's tighter. But I think this looks just as good. I think there were some commercials by Elizabeth Banks that were about the mid-caps, the forgotten. They were funny. They amused me. It is kind of a perfect space where you get more liquidity, you get more size, you're closer to being the big guys and girls. And so it is really kind of where you want to go. But it's just like I said, tactically, just trading it is have to find I guess we just have to find a super liquid instrument there with tight spreads.

11:34Now, a lot of people might be looking at the volatility, like, you know, increased volatility here. You expect that on a day where you have a down a down day. I mean, yes, volatility, you know, as measured by the CBOE volatility index, the VIX. Yeah, that was up today, but it's been kind of at these historic lows for a while. Not historic. I mean, it's just been kind of in this mid-range. Nothing to see here. Not anything close to what we saw back with the tariffs in April. So anything that you look at here? I don't use it at all in any way, shape, or form. I mean, I might trade it occasionally as a vehicle using the various ETFs on it.

12:18But I think it's a broken instrument for analysis for the market. I think it would have worked way back when, just like put to call work decades ago. And I just think all the changes in the option market and everything, I just don't trust it at all. So I'd rather just keep it as simple as possible and not use secondary indicators, just indicators based on the price of what I'm looking at. So IWM or SPY or Q's or NASDAQ, what have you. Yeah. And for those of you that have read How to Make Money in Stocks by William O 'Neill, the founder of Investors Business Daily, you might remember his fish story.

12:57What the professor told him, look at the fish, you know, don't try and read all about it and, you know, just look at the fish, observe the fish. And that's what we do sometimes with the price and volume. You got to get the book, man, right? Like if you don't get the book, you don't know what the fish story is. And the fish story is really the foundation of how I look at everything and reread that story because that's like my Bible, you know, so to speak. Let's go through some sectors. And I'm going to go through the 11 sector spider, you know, ETFs. But we'll also kind of throw in a couple others that have been of interest to a lot of people lately.

13:36And we start with the worst first. And the worst was Ibit, which is the Bitcoin. I still do have a small position here just because I have a low cost average on it. But, yeah, this one, you know, probably probably needs to go. Yeah. You know, it's so weird that right now they're gravitating towards gold. You would think as like an alternative asset, they would be going together. You know, at least that's my my look at it is weird. Like gold looks great, you know, getting ready to break out. And of course, the gold stocks and GDX have have been leading. You know, this the gold itself is kind of the laggard, you know, all it is versus the gold stocks.

14:17And sometimes it's one that leads. And I mean, that's typical. You usually get the leverage. So the moves are bigger on the miners, you know, either to the upside or downside. Yeah, it's weird that it led in time as well because it broke out, not just the leverage aspect, it was leading it. So the moves, the size of the moves, absolutely, you're going to get more with any way that you're leveraging the metal itself. As Bill would say, the shiny piece of metal with no earnings, but he'd still trade it every once in a while. This looks really good. It's just extended. We were trying to find a stock in the group to talk about.

14:54Let's just pull up FNV because that was the one that we were both looking at that kind of looked the best. It wasn't super extended. And I do have a position in this one. Oh, OK. And all the best ones are kind of up and out of there. Like pull up NEM that I think that was one. You know, that's a monster. You know, so you're just looking. I'm just looking in this space of an opportunity that's not a laggard. It's probably going to have to be the GLD. You know, so I was looking at adding that to swing trader today, but we decided not to because we're playing defense. And sometimes it's just better to play just pure defense going into a three-day weekend than defense and offense.

15:36But I think that looks, you know, very interesting there. Looks set up. Well, you kind of went from the worst to the best. Oh, sorry about that. That's okay. That's okay. Let's also take a look at chips. This was an area that was hard hit today, down 2.9%, as we mentioned. Down below the 21-day moving average line, but still holding the 50-day moving average line. Yeah, it was just going in. Not too long ago. Yeah, that crapshoot of the NVIDIA earnings that we had this week. And it was kind of, it was a weird reaction because you normally would have expected either up 10 % or down 10 % or at least 5%.

16:14And it was just kind of nothing, you know, down a little bit, which was weak action, you know, because now you get all the all this new data, you know, a pickup and earnings 54 percent versus 33 percent. But you can't go anywhere. So it just tells you it's a little tired. It's not broken. Still above its 50 days, still in a solid uptrend, has a nice RS number in everything. But, you know, it's fine if things pause here a little bit, but we do have some earnings in that space next week. I think, is it Broadcom that's reporting? And that was, you know, that was hit pretty hard today, too. I do have a position there.

16:54Smaller now. Yeah, I had to sell my, you know, I bought some and then I sold it just because it's not broken. It was just, you know, again, it just depends on how you're trading, if you're swing trading or position trading. If I was position trading this and I had a cost basis under$250, I would have done nothing with it, you know, because it looks normal and natural. And it's just kind of starting to form what could be a flat base, you know, just, you know, a couple weeks into a potential flat base. But then we have the earnings event next week. And that could be a really good catalyst for this stock and the whole group.

17:32You just want to keep an open mind to that. Getting to the sector spiders, hardest hit today, XLK, no big surprise there. That's down at its 21-day moving average line, down 1.5%. XLY, which is the consumer discretionary, that was also down about a percent, but this one's holding above the 10-day moving average line. So, again, hard to be too upset. And you just stopped me if there's any details that you want to fill in here, Mike. XLI, the industrial sector, this is kind of filling in from this breakout above this resistance area here that it had, you know, just kind of coming right back down to that line.

18:11So we'll see how that ends. SPY, as we mentioned, is kind of right there in the middle with just a half, you know, a little bit over a half a percent. XLU, XLU, the utilities, that was down about 0.3 percent. So not too bad on that one. And FFTY, you know, this is kind of a, you know, a little bit of growth. This was a little bit misleading because it had IREN, which was up 15%. I do have a position in that. There were some stocks, yeah, there were some stocks in FFTY that did very well and kind of helped that. XLC, which has Meta and Google, that one was only down 0.2%. We talked about Google or Alphabet, I should say, the parent company on Ivy Live today.

18:57This is in the mega cap space. This just looks like what what pullback? What what ugly day? Yeah, it looks so strong. I'm very upset with myself that I miss it. I might have traded it, but then like it's Google. How much are you going to get out of it? And I've just got to say, you know, kudos to Ken and Hatman and Mike Larkin for having this on on their leaderboard. and they've just done a great job with this. And kudos to them. It's doing nothing wrong and doing everything right. Up on a down day, man, that's like in through the outdoor. Good stuff. So RSP, we didn't talk too much about this yet, but I want to get your thoughts here because this was basically flat.

19:40Now, it hasn't been hitting the highs. It's just been kind of like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, kind of trading in that Friday range. It hasn't broken out above there, and it hasn't broken down below there either. So when you consider that this is the equal weight of the top 500 companies, you know, what's in the S &P 500, the fact that this was flat, what does that tell you? That tells me that it is the summer and all the big boys and girls are controlling the large amounts of assets are out on vacation. They're hanging out with their family, they're on their yachts or wherever, the Hamptons, and they have for their junior PMs just gave them what to do.

20:21And that's why you see all this other volatility going around. But the average stock was flat this week. Like that is, you know, dead as it can be. And we do have this on Swing Trader because it's a nice way to participate with lowering the volatility in your account. And you can see for the last several weeks that RS line is actually starting to move up, which is very hard for this index to do or this ETF to do because it's equal weight And there's this positive bias over time to the larger caps in there. So go to the monthly to just show the trend of the RS line is almost always down, flat or down.

21:01And so when you get little spikes like this, it's really telling. You know, I wouldn't call it a spike, but a short-term trend that's up. And that's why we're playing in this space. And you can sleep at night with RSP. You get the exposure to the market that if the market is really hot, that's probably going to lag that day. But at least you get some exposure there without having any, you know, serious amount of risk. So, you know, I like having that in a portfolio. You don't want a portfolio filled with the IRENs of the world, you know, because it's great when they're up a bunch, but they can be down just as much as they were up.

21:35Yeah. And I do have a position in RSP worth mentioning that, you know, really 2023 was kind of when everyone started talking about the Magnificent Seven and everything like that. And that's why you've really seen a little bit more of that dramatic downtrend in this relative strength line, because it really was the Magnificent Seven, those mega caps, the trillion dollar club, whatever you want to call them, that was really driving the index strength in a lot of ways. Now, you still had a lot of stocks outside of those seven that were doing well. But when you look at all of them, this is what this is telling you.

22:11Also want to kind of touch on a few other kind of specialized sectors. ITB, home builders. I mean, this closed flat today. Yeah, this is I have a position. And I do have a position, yeah. Yeah, I have a position here. and I'm pretty big in this space right now. What I'm looking at, and I haven't been right yet, and we have it on Swing Trader, that if you look at the low from the day before the big up day and the high of the big up day, so that Thursday and that Friday, you're still living in the upper, in the northern hemisphere of that. I mean, it's lower than I would like it to be, but it's still sitting up there and it's been kind of tight just digesting that move, I'm afraid it's probably going to shake, has the potential to shake me out of my position before it goes.

23:07Pretty much prepared for that, but then being willing to buy it back. So if let's say you have a weekday on Tuesday that pushes you out, I'd be looking to, if it can get back above yesterday's high, to just be buying that back. So I'm always looking at what is my exit for every trade, but This is really nice. Having a big move. How much was this one up on that last Friday? Yeah, so that was, let me get off the set alert. So this was up 5.3%. Yeah, that's a huge move. And it's just digesting those gains in a very healthy way. Yes, you would like it to go right up afterwards, but this is still normal and natural.

23:47But man, it's testing my patience. Also flat today was Jets. You know, we talked a little bit about how, you know, this also had a very strong day on last Friday, up 5%, really just kind of holding the gains. Unlike ITB, it hasn't really pulled back all that much. It's right there. Yeah, I have a position in this as well as we have it on Swing Trader. And it's, yeah, it's doing nothing wrong. Now, the individual stocks that comprise this one, they're kind of all over the place and they're not in good, you know, individually, they don't look good. They just look like they want to go higher. And that's why you, you know, I like gravitating towards the ETF because you, you can get the blended risk of, of all of those.

24:35But yeah, again, flat on an uptake, that's a good thing. Now, I mean, flat on a down debt, you know what I'm saying? Right. Yeah. So it's not all doom and gloom out there because as I'm looking at my sector ETFs, there's about half and half green and red. So let's get to the positive side and we'll start with XLB, which is the materials. You know, this was this was up slightly now off its highs. But really, again, not doing anything wrong. Here's that Friday where it's just kind of a lot of a lot of things are actually just kind of staying within there. The things that were looking the strongest were the things that were breaking out above that Friday high.

25:14But there's a lot of things that are right in that Friday range still. XLF, the financials, that is one that did break out above the Friday high, and it had a decent quarter percentage move today. The XLE, oil and gas energy, that was up. This has kind of been really lagging for a while here, especially on the relative strength side. But poking up a little bit above some of these moving average lines recently. Just stop for a second. On the XLE, this is where I'm probably going to be doing a lot of researching this weekend is into this space because I have been seeing some natural gas and oil and gas from natural gas stocks coming through a lot of my screens, a lot near highs.

26:03It's a mixed bag in this area. But, you know, go back to that weekly. That's how they look before they start a new trend up. It's kind of like a setup week. You know, you're kind of this flat base. It's in a slight decline. And then you're poking up above it. So this is really, you know, there were a few that I was looking at. I can't remember the symbols off the top of my head that we were looking at to put on Swing Trader today. But, again, we were playing defense. And this this looks interesting, but I hate this space because it's so hard to trade. Right. Yeah, absolutely. XLRE, this is the real estate now.

26:44It's worth mentioning that we've got the 10-year treasury yield. That has come down quite a bit this week. We had Jackson Hole last Friday, which kind of started this latest rally and a little bit of this rotation to the small caps and ITB, the home builders as well. So what is your take on the real estate? You know, this has a lot of REITs in it. It has a lot of things like that. This is, again, kind of basically in that Friday range, you know, but it had a positive day today, up over half a percent. Well, if Chris Gessel, our good buddy, ends up watching this, close your ears, Chris. I'm really interested in REITs right now and anything in this space, if it looks right, just because of the environment, the interest rate environment.

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27:34You know, when you're changing, it's, you know, we've talked about this in the past that, you know, these movements tend to be really long. Like when the interest rates are going and you have the wind at your back, that, you know, if that materializes, you know, I'm looking at it where mortgage rates and things are going to be, you know, going back down. And we don't know if that's going to happen, but that's what it looks like. If so, you know, money should be flowing into these spaces. And some of them can have really long, sustained, like multi-year moves at times. So that's why I'm so pulled up on that area.

28:11But they're not going to make it easy. Absolutely. And, of course, we'll go ahead and end here. Well, actually not end. There's one more after this. But one of the areas that was also up today, consumer staples, you know, on down days, you kind of expect this to do a little bit better. It was up only half a percent. But you look at the weekly chart on this and talk about a, you know, a relative strength laggard, you know, flat is down. Right. If you've got a market rally and all this strength that we've been seeing over the last few years. And if you're just going flat, yeah, that's that's not going to be great for your relative strength.

28:49So no big surprise there that this was up. I thought people were maybe mentioning Clorox today in the YouTube comments because of the staples. But I don't know. I think it sounds like someone's doing a project or something. So always interesting to read those those comments. If you if you I can't I can't read them because whenever I have it up, it gives me some feedback or whatever. Well, one of my favorites was when you were talking about the yachts and the Hamptons. Someone was referring to his rowboat and and stuff. I think that was Tim. So hi, Tim. Okay, last one. This is XLB Healthcare, another one that has been, you know, pretty much of a laggard here.

29:27You do have, you know, XBI, which we played on Swing Trader for a little bit. You know, that's the Biomed Biotech that got above its 200-day moving average line. But XLB Healthcare, still below its 200-day moving average line, though it had about a three-quarter percent move today. I my, you know, kind of game plan is AI and everything. That's the way of this bull market. And we, you know, I think everyone and their brother at this point is in agreement that this is like the 1990s with the Internet and the whole AI thing. And just knowing that doesn't mean you're going to make money. I mean, it's, you know, go back and study the 90s.

30:07They weren't just handing it out. Yeah. So it's nice if that area pauses a little bit, like what we saw with a lot of that space yesterday and today, that if something else can run, you know, and you don't want just to be the banks and the home builders and maybe some oil and gas. You know, there are a lot of different medicals. So I would spend time this weekend looking there too. But, you know, focus on, I wouldn't go to the UNHs of the world. I know that a couple of big, high profile people, you know, bought in there recently. So you had that big move up. But don't look for them in this position.

30:46Just screen for things above their 50 and above their 200 day at bare minimum. And then start there. And the closer to their highs, the better. I'm Laura Thurow with Baird Private Wealth Management. You've been doing all the right things, saving, investing, building toward your goals. Healthcare can be a major expense today and an even greater one over time. Tools like long-term care insurance or a smart health savings account strategy can help protect what you've worked so hard to build. Learn more at bairdwealth.com slash WSJ guidebook. Let's go ahead and get to some stocks and we'll start with Expedia.

31:30You already talked a little bit about jets, kind of related. You have your bookers, right? You got booking.com, but Expedia, that one looks a little bit stronger here. Yeah. So on my recent road trip, I was using pretty much Priceline, which is booking exclusively, but I was checking out everything, including the Expedia versions. And I just didn't like it as much, but I like the stock better, you know, than what booking is doing because booking is just base building. So it's essentially, by definition, the laggard here, even though I like the product better or the service. So you go to what's acting the best, not just what you'd like.

32:12So going back to Expedia, this whole space, you know, with the jets and a lot of the hotels and things are looking strong. So that's also telling you that, you know, if the travel space is strong, like, you know, that you're in a good economy because people don't go and travel and fly if, you know, if things are bad, they cool that off. And then these companies don't have pricing power. So this is looking really nice. So it's just kind of stair-stepping in a way. It's like a mini little shelf here for this week. So if it can take from a swing trading standpoint, if it can take up these highs over the last week, that's something to try because then you can use yesterday's low as your exit.

32:56It's too extended from a position trade. So position trade is when you take a 7 % or 8 % loss and a swing trade is you tend to take more of like a 3 % or 4 % stop loss on it. So it's just, you know, you can see in the top right-hand corner, it's 21 % extended out of that base. So it's not in position for a position trade. But for those of you who like to swing trade, this is, you know, one that I would consider. And you've got the earnings behind you. You mentioned hotels as well. So Hilton was one that we've talked about on IBD Live. This one, again, trading within that range of its Friday, big move on Friday and a little bit of a reversal off lows today getting support of the 10 day moving average plan.

33:40Yeah, that's probably my favorite in the hotel space. And then, of course, you've got, I think you were playing, like, I traded for a little bit, like the Las Vegas Sands in the wind, which are really a kind of play, you know, Macau. But still just is a general theme of anything entertainment, travel, seems to be where the money is flowing into the leisure space. Yeah, and I do still have my position in Las Vegas Sands. Let's go ahead and take a look at D.H.I., D.R. Horton, representative of one of the home builders. Yeah. So I do have, you know, a position here. We have this on Swing Trader as well.

34:22It's early, right? Let's go to the weekly on this one. And this is just forming, you know, it's still forming this base. And you could say that this could be the first week of a potential handle. And if that's the case, if it forms a handle that's, you know, with this size of a base, how long is this base? So 50 weeks, so almost a full year with a depth of 45 percent. Yeah. So that's that's both deep and long. So it's entitled for a handle really, you know, just being objective. Got to, you know, forget that I have a position and I want it to go higher. But you can have a handle of two to three weeks and it'd be totally normal.

35:01And for that handle to come down 10 or 15 percent and still be normal as long as it were to stay above the 10 week line, which is your red line there. So it's not a slam dunk. This just goes up. But this is, you know, the one in the group that I've decided to play besides doing it with the broader ETFs. Well, I do have some KBH and some of the other ones, but this is the one where I'm doing the bigger position. It's, you know, I believe it's the most liquid and the largest one there. And it's just set up. This is what I would classify as a setup day. When you have a tiny spread closing near your highs at an area of resistance, that is set up to gap up from there.

35:40Doesn't mean it will, but that's how I was playing it. And I was buying some into the close or adding to my position into the close with that assumption. But if it doesn't happen, I'll just, you know, back away from those extras. But let's go back to the weekly and look at the fundamentals for a second. And let's scroll down to the quarterly numbers. Yeah, exactly. It's terrible, right? So when you're buying cyclical stocks, depending on how you do it, you're doing it when the earnings are still bad. Now, if Bill O 'Neill, the founder of IBD, were with us, one of the things that he would demand is that you have at least one quarter of positive earnings on there before he would trade turnarounds.

36:23The turnarounds were about 25 % of our models that we did, but this is not a turnaround yet. This is a potential turnaround. round. Let's go back up to the annual numbers. And this whole space is like this. So if you're saying, hey, I don't want to play it yet because I'm more orthodox, you're not wrong. Bill would not be buying these. And then you look at the annual estimates and you're hoping to see something really spectacular there. And the last time I checked, a minus 18 and a plus three is not spectacular. So we will see. I mean, this is not going to be an easy trade. And that's why I said the likelihood of getting shaken out a few times if it's going to work is high.

37:08But let's go to the monthly and kind of the reason why. And let's zoom out so we can see that big move in the early 2000s. Yeah, so you have this big move. NVR was probably the poster child. I think we talked about that last week. Let's just pull that up because that was kind of your better moving one. Yeah, it makes sense. Yeah. Didn't mean to. It's okay. So I would spend some time and go and study NVR during that move there because that was kind of one of the best ones in a space. And you can do all of them, the Toll Brothers. And they all tend to move together. You'll have some faster horses and some slower horses.

37:50But when they have their moves, they can be really prolonged. They're easier once they get going than the oil space because energy space, they'll base build, they'll break out for a little bit. then they'll base build again, which is very hard. These can trend, but it might be early. Very good. Okay, we'll go ahead and zoom back in so everyone can see here. And let's go ahead and finish this out with a biomed stock, ARGX, Argenix. Well, we were searching around for three stocks to talk about and it was really hard to find. And this one looks really sloppy when it's zoomed in this much. Let's just zoom out just for a second because we almost didn't talk about it because on my chart, it looks so different.

38:35This to me just looks so much better where it's compressed more, where you get more of the price. Take a look at the weekly. Yeah, but then on the weekly, it's problematic and you had that bad break in 23 that really bothers me. But we've really moved up a lot since then, both in time and in price. So that's kind of, it's out of the penalty box, but that would have been in the penalty box for pretty much about a year after a break like that. I don't know anything about this one, so it's on my to-do list to start researching it. But I like how we had three weeks tight. Now we have this gap up. You can see the little blue shaded area that you can zoom back in, I guess, so folks can actually see that.

39:19It's interesting that you normally don't see a three weeks tight with a gap down. Yeah, it's very, very strange and rare. But it's the closes, right, that we're looking at. Yeah, but this looks really interesting. And let's go down to the quarterly numbers, which look totally different than DHI. Look at that sales grow. That's massive. And then the earnings are massive. So I really need to understand what it is they do, which I have no clue about, but just wanted to, you know, bring it up so we can all just kind of study it. Now let's go to the daily. And, you know, on this one, from a position trading standpoint, it's too far out of there.

40:02But it didn't really give you a clean entry because if you would have bought it on the gap up, you would have been shaken out. If you would have bought it on the second gap up, it had such a terrible close that you might have been, you know, just worn out of it there. and now it's just kind of gone up without a clean entry, which is kind of something I like because it means no one really got a foothold in it recently. And so those are the ones that kind of tend to keep going because everyone's waiting for that pullback. And I like that it got back above the 700. So it might be something that I stretch and just kind of buy a little bit out of position.

40:38At times you can do that as long as you have a stop. So my stop would be yesterday's low if I went in there from a swing trading standpoint. So, again, something worth studying. And I'll probably see what was so special on those earnings this time versus last time. Because last time, excuse me, you had that major gap down. This time you had a similar gap up. So if you're trading a buyout, you kind of want to know what you're dealing with. It doesn't mean it can't gap down on you. Yeah. Yeah. And look, some of these have higher ATRs. You know, a lot of people in the comments of YouTube are talking about this Tempest AI.

41:20We talked about this a little bit on IBD Live. So consider this your bonus stock. But look, this has an ATR that's approaching eight. And we went with a half position because of that. And on this day, we started trimming because we We had bought on this day and already had a 10 % gain in a single day, but then, you know, finished mid-range. So we were, you know, we locked some in with a 5 % gain so they couldn't take it all away from us and then started trimming when we dropped another percent. But, you know, this one stopped selling and it's kind of getting support right around that previous area.

41:59Well, yeah, I do have a position. I bought it back today. We didn't put it on Swing Trader for the same reasons why I was saying before. we were playing defense. But this looks really good. But you said the key thing, high ATR. With an 8 ATR, 90 % of the folks who are listening should not trade things with an ATR above 6%. What is an ATR, you ask? What's an ATR, Justin? Because I'll take 10 minutes to do it. You can do it in a minute. Basically, it's average true range. It lets you know, okay, how much on average does this stock move from its high to its low? And it does consider gaps as well in there, which is what the true range tends to be.

42:39We tend to look at a 21-day ATR to give us a sense, how much does this move? And if you look at the last 21 days, you know, Tempest AI, just as you said, like on this day, I mean, that was a 10 % move. You know, a lot of these 10 % moves are just a dime a dozen on this stock. So but this does have the the double whammy of medical and AI. So interesting one. But again, not for everyone because of that high ATR. You have to be careful. And that's that's what I was writing about in my column today. So I'm going to go ahead and stop sharing, Mike. And we're going to turn this over to you because you have your special charts that you share on the Friday SMTs.

43:24So we're going to start with a very simple look at what's happening with the markets. What do you see in here on SPY? Okay, well, we're doing the Bob Weir take a step back looking at the weekly charts. And let's just, you know, kind of zoom out a bit to kind of see where we're at. So we had this nice big uptrend and we had this short bear market. And now we're in the recovery phase from there. And when you look at it from a weekly chart, which is why we do it, there's not a whole lot wrong. When you see the blue candle on there, meaning that it closed higher than it opened, your first instinct is like, oh, that's good.

43:58But then if you really get into the nitty gritty of it, it's not a good candle. You know, just being objective. You have a higher or a wider wick on top than you do on the bottom. It's telling you that you traveled up there, kind of stalled on a weekly basis and then came back in. If we were looking at this on a daily basis, we would say that was a stalling candle. And when you stall, you either go sideways or you come down. So as we go through all these charts, you're going to see a lot of mixed signals here. And then that just kind of tells you how much risk you want to take. Now, on the positive side, again, it did close above where it opened for the week.

44:37And it did stay within the body of last week. So that is positive. And our low from this week is substantially higher than the low from last week. in our higher, we had a higher high. So you have lots of mixed things going on there, but on balance, I would say it is more, more negative, but it's kind of a neutral, but sometimes they're clear cut. Sometimes they aren't. Let's go look at NAS, I can see. And that one has a worse candle, but a little bit more normal in that we didn't hit a fresh high and then back away. So it doesn't give you that sense of stalling, more of base building. So it was what I call a sliver candle.

45:22So even though we close slightly lower than we open, it's pretty much the same thing because it's really hard to see that. But again, negative because you have a longer top wick where it traveled up to than our bottom wick. But on the good side of things, again, our low for this week, substantially higher than the low from the prior week and even above the one from the week before that. So some wins and some losses there. Now let's go and take a look at the regression. So this one is tricky. So we're using the regression, the 50-day regression, starting on May 12th and going out to July 23rd right here to set this line of best fit.

46:11And the way I like to look at this is when you come down to your green line, your minus one standard deviation, your solid green line, your expectation is one of two things. You're either going to break that and start living below it for a couple of days and then your regression channel is dead and you have to look for a new one. Or you do what happened here where it bounces up and moves above your dash line, which is your 0.75 standard deviation. And the expectation is for it to go back up to home base, which is your white line or your line of best fit. But really, in a strong market, a healthy market, it'll go past and go all the way up to your red dash line, which is exactly what happened back here in late June to early July.

47:00this was kind of a textbook move. Now, what's happened recently is we had that big signal on this candle here where we moved back through your 0.75 in a big way. So that dashed line, so that was telling you your expectation was for it to go straight up to that, the white line, and it didn't do that. And so that's a little concerning to me, but it's not broken. So it's come back in. It's still above our solid line, but it's back into the 0.75. So you just have to be objective with this. This is not what you wanted to see. You wanted to see it do more of what this did or really what this did back over here.

47:48But that goes along with the fact that we're seeing this rotation into non-mega cap stocks. So you're putting all these pieces together, doing a little mosaic in your mind. Let's go over to the NASDAQ and we'll zoom out to kind of see the same thing. We're using the same dates there, this gap up here on May 12th for our first day. And this one looks weaker than SPY, just blowing up into here, that we now have a close back underneath the one standard deviation. So that's why I'd be more careful with your Qs or NASDAQ-related things. And we saw that through all the charts. This is not a surprise to you, but you always want to look at this in addition to.

48:35That's why we have this set routine of all the charts that we look at. So this is not at all what you want. Even this last few days, it's just been hugging that 0.75 line rather than moving up to the white dash line. I think a lot of that was just the NVIDIA reaction. And look, if there would have been a good NVIDIA reaction, we would be up to that white line. So sometimes it's just news and you never know how that is going to break. And that's just the reality of the market. Now let's look at our It's worth mentioning just real quick, if you don't mind going back to that, you know, we got below that line before you can go below that it's just you know how do you do it and how long do you stay below it yeah that tells you when the trend breaks yeah if you if we have our high underneath that for a couple days or like three days with your high i don't have a set rule yet it's kind of you know when you see it and so i'm trying to i like black and white rules if you can have them But just like, you know, when the three of us came up with the expectation breaker, we couldn't come up with black and white rules.

49:42It was something you know when you see it. And so that's where this stands right now. So it wouldn't be broken even if we unless we had a waterfall sell off on Tuesday. This wouldn't be broken at that point. You need some time underneath that to basically tell you the trend has has changed. So you would have to be living under here probably until like next Thursday or Friday. And then you would say, OK, you know, this trend is done and then you're going to be looking for a new one, which wouldn't be a total surprise because we did say that with the work the two of us have been doing on the looking for the precedence where your low had been above your 21 day for an extended period of time.

50:22Once it broke, like it broke here on August 1st, that you had this change of character. And so that's okay if that happens as long as, you know, the rest of the stuff, the RSPs of the world and don't break down in the small caps and so forth. Anything else on that one? No. Okay, cool. Please move on. All right. So here we've got the 50 % retracement. This one you can slice a million different ways. this week I'm choosing to use the low from the 20th and the high that we had yesterday just to see are we living in the northern hemisphere or the southern and and northern is where you want to be and that's where we're at so that's good on that level let's take a look at the composite same thing here using the same basic time frames or the same exact time frames and still in the northern hemisphere there.

51:18I think I put the IWM in this time. Yeah, I did. And this one just goes to show how different this space is and what we saw with the NASDAQ and the spiders, because this low is the 12th and just using the high here of the 13th. And we're so much above that. And even if I were to put the high here and the low here, you're above it. No matter how you slice it, you're in the northern most hemisphere or part of the hemisphere. So that is a good thing to be at the North Pole. So this kind of goes back to your point that, OK, just because the Nasdaq is looking looking a certain way doesn't mean, oh, you have to have no exposure.

52:02It just might mean you have to have different exposure. Exactly. Just, you know, moving, you know, you don't always have to just say, I'm just going to buy a spy and that's it. Or I'm just types of stocks and videos of the world, you can, you know, broaden yourself. We've been living in, you know, the last five, 10 years where all this focus has been on the fang and because they've been working so well, but that doesn't, that's not how things were historically. If you go back to when Bill wrote the first edition of how to make money in stocks, really, he was focused on small caps. You know, that changed, you know, once he started doing the third and fourth edition that you and you remember shares outstanding 32 million.

52:48Yeah. I've got some stories about that, but we'll go there right now. Or we'll be here at midnight. But look, it's things change. That's the way things used to be. And you can always revert to them, but we'll see. All right. Now we're going to go to the levels and I've changed a few of them on here. So our first line of the sand on spy would be the, and there's more lines that you can draw than what I have, but I try to keep it as basic as possible. So 637 and a quarter, that would be the low of the 22nd. Then you would have the low of the 20th, which is 632.95. Then the low here on August 1st, That's really your key true line in the sand for right now in the short term is staying above that.

53:39If we go below that level, then you're kind of running into problems with your underneath your 50 day. You're you know, you kind of broken some expectations in a kind of a major way. And you might have to do have an intermediate correction. Let's take a look at the. Nasdaq, same basic levels here, you know, you know, on here. Let me see. I don't know. That must have got messed up. That was supposed to be there. So, you know, you've got the low from the 22nd. You have the low from the 20th that are key levels and then the low from the first. So same basic things. And then if you go, if we really run into problems, then you're looking at more like June 23rd, the low back there.

54:26But if we start getting that way, we'll be very defensive by then. And let's look at the simple chart, Allie's favorite chart. And I hope she's doing well. I haven't heard if she's had her baby yet or not, but we're wishing her the very best. And baby watch 2025. Exactly. So the low is still above the 21 day on here and is, you know, from this standpoint, doesn't look like it's just doodling around. Sometimes, you know, we dissect things, especially on a kind of a pseudo holiday week, a little bit too much and get into the nitty gritty when, you know, all participants aren't really here playing.

55:08And it's just kind of in the aftermath of the big Fed speech at Jackson Hole. So, you know, just being objective, this one doesn't look that bad through that lens. and same thing with the nasdaq doesn't really look that bad if you just focus in on that you're you were able to get support at your 21 days so um you know it's not broken it's just um you know putting in some time there let me still trending yeah yep let me go to our other one just one sec you always make this look so easy man it's so hard for me not not not as much as ally but uh Yeah, she does make everything look so easy. Okay, can you see?

55:52Okay, so we're going to go to the Webby RSI, which we'll go to it on SPY. So which is down here, the little histogram. And you can just see your low is still above it. It's just this tiny little thing. And really, we wanted after last week, we wanted this to expand and get around, you know, up to the twos and the two and a half ATR is where your low is versus your 21 day. but that's not what we got this week. But it's still not broken because we still have a positive one there. It's when you don't have one, that's when you start getting worried. And the burnt orange on here, that's when your high is underneath it.

56:33And that's a whole different thing. And that's when you have to play defense there. But we still have a positive value here. So you're still leaning on the... Leaning... And we just had like a fraction last week. It was one of the things we were looking at. So what is going on? OK, so here's the NASDAQ. And on this one, you got this tiny little one. So it's even worse there. Let's look at the IWM because that's the one that we're focusing on right now. And this is your two. There you go. Yeah, we got a little bit over to yesterday. So looking good there. And this is what you actually would be happy seeing this get up to three and beyond because it's been so long, you know, since this has done anything.

57:25Just look at all that chop and slop. Oh, God. Yeah. If you want to know where I bought it every time it spiked up, that was me. Now we will go over to my daughter's favorite. And this is the Bob Marley indicator. And, you know, you've got your green area, which is your four ATRs off your high. This is just a measurement of how far you are off your high. And this is still in a totally good place. We're just not far off at all. And you pointed that out earlier. Same thing here with the NASDAQ. It's nothing to worry about there. And let's see the IWM is up in the green now, which is a nice thing to see.

58:10and you want to stay up there and you actually want to get, you know, all the way up to the top. And let's take a look at the RSP. And again, that one's looking nice. So this is the way that I like to look at the breadth of the market. And that is looking, you know, actually very, very healthy. So I would say it was kind of a mixed bag this week. As you said, from the Rolling Stones, you can't always get what you want, but sometimes you get what you need. And sometimes a pause without breaking is what you need. Yeah, very good. Well, that pretty much wraps it up for us in terms of our charts and analysis.

58:47But let's kind of project a little bit. So, you know, one of the things we were talking about on IBD Live, we had the great fortune of having Charles Harris on the show this morning. Yeah. So, you know, of course, we we worked together very closely for a number of years. You guys shared an office with Bill O 'Neill for, you know, a number of years. And one of the things we were talking about is how sometimes he's waiting for the end of the day to kind of see how we finish. As you mentioned, we kind of had our selling and then stopped as opposed to having our selling stopping and then restarting the selling in a big waterfall fashion.

59:21So for folks that maybe didn't do as much selling as they wanted to, or were kind of taking a wait and see approach, what should they be doing this weekend to prepare for next week? Oh, that's the right question. So, and we talked about it a little bit on IBD Live is this is the perfect time if you haven't done so already to rate your stocks, give them a letter grade, A through F for all of your holdings. It's more important than things on your watch list. What do you actually own and what is your A stock all the way down to, you might have an F stock in there. If you have an F stock, probably time to sell it or a D stock, right?

59:58But look at them. These ratings change as the stock gives you more feedback, you change them. You're not gonna go from an A to an F fun of, you know, on just some random day unless the stock blows apart on you. But that will help you in the battlefield because you never know what news is going to hit and you need to know how to act. What are you going to sell first? So one thing is your letter grade, but you also want to know what your ATR is for each stock. So you want to know how much risk you're taking on. So you might have a, let's say two B caliber stocks in there, but one's got an eight ATR and the other one has a two ATR.

1:00:40Well, if the market starts rolling and you're wanting to reduce those, I'm going for the eight all day long. And then sometimes you have to turn around and be able to buy them back. You have to get comfortable with that. It's something that's really hard. And when you say going for the eight in terms of your sell. The sell. Yes. I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. Sell the one that has a higher HR. Just making sure I was clear. Just want to make sure everyone else was. When you say going for it, going for the sell. Yeah, you want to sell your highest risk one, even if the quality is the same. And the quality isn't just the quality of the fundamentals or the technicals.

1:01:15It's also your exit on there. If your exit is 20 % away, that's going to be different than something that's 2 % or 3 % away. So I would do that for all of them. have a game plan, and I would actually email yourself saying that, okay, well, if this happens, we have an exceptionally strong Tuesday, this is your game plan. If we have an exceptionally weak Tuesday, this is your game plan. And we do this with Swing Trader. We go, okay, we're X percent invested. Where do we want to get down to? Where's the next level we want to get down to and kind of stop, you know, do a bunch of, you know, you do kind of sometimes you do a bunch of selling if you have to, and then you pause for a little bit and you see, are you getting, are those things going lower?

1:02:05And then if so, then you have to do more selling. And, but if not, then you can just pause. And that's kind of what we did. We did a bunch of selling early in the day. We waited and then we just kind of dribbled and sold a little bit here and there. But most of the selling was done early on because it wasn't exceptionally strong late in the day, but it wasn't exceptionally weak either. So we didn't have to, you know, do a lot more. But, you know, I'm very, you know, bullish on the market because I see this rotation as a super healthy thing. I would like to find another president besides the 1980 to go on.

1:02:44So I'm not leaning everything on that. I'm using our, you know, all of our instruments, our regression lines, our 21-day, the Webby RSI, you know, just the basic things and, you know, just studying what the market is actually doing. And I would lean heavily on the RSP because that is a good way to kind of weed out all of the noise there. And, you know, I think you pointed out that RSP was essentially flat, you know, it wasn't, it was just down fractually, which was not bad given, And, you know, a lot of stocks that got kind of hammered today. Yeah. So, well, thank you very much, Webby. You know, I have neglected to drill you on the song.

1:03:25We did get some, you know, some choices from the audience. Oh, you do. OK, so we can we can go through that. Some of the ones from the audience were, you know, with Allie missing. No woman, no cry, especially with Bob Marley. So, you know, can't always get what you want, you know, based on how we didn't come up to those regression lines. But what do you got for us? I've got, because it was with the stones, once you said you can't, I was just thinking stones related. So mixed emotions, because we have so many mixed signals going on. And there was another one, no expectations, you know, because anything can happen and you need to adjust for it.

1:04:04But I just, you know, again, just want to send best wishes to Allie and her family. And this is a lot of fun doing this with you. We've been working together since 1998, and there's no one better to work with than you. Thank you, man. Appreciate it. And that's going to wrap it up for us. Thank you so much for your comments, Webby. And, of course, you can catch us all on iBity Live next week and the SMT video next Friday. Don't forget, Monday is a holiday, Labor Day. So no iBity Live, no SMT video, no nothing. Let's just all have a nice three-day weekend and take care, everybody. See you.

1:05:12Yeah, the Everpure data management platform unifies data so you can always find it. No messenger needed. No more running around. Get out of the data dark ages with Everpure, a new era in data management.

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Justin Nielsen and Mike Webster analyze Friday’s market action and discuss key stocks to watch on Stock Market Today.
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