Bullish Market Trend Continues; Penumbra, Vertiv, JPMorgan In Focus

0:00It's time to get Brex AF, a Gentec finance that eliminates manual work and puts you in control. Learn more at brex.com slash AF.

0:16Hello and welcome to another episode of the Stock Market Today video. It's Justin Nielsen here. I'm going to be hosting for you today. and we're going to give you a recap of what's going on, what happened this week, and what to look forward to next week. To help me do that is Ed Carson, our news editor. Thanks a lot for joining us, Ed. It is December 5th, 2025, and what you got for us today? Yeah, I'm pretty good when it comes to looking backward and talking about the market did rather than the other direction. I will be taking a look at – Okay. I want to take a look at Penumbra, Vertiv, and J.P.

0:51Morgan. Perfect. So we will take a look at those. And I mean, you know, I have to admit a lot of folks on IBD Live, our morning show, were saying that last week I was on vacation and they were wondering if there was maybe the Chris Gessel effect that maybe, you know, I need to go on vacation more. So if we can if we can work on that, Ed, you know, you've got my back, right? Yeah, I'd be all supportive of that. If that could make my portfolio go up, I'm happy to help out. Yeah, you go. Oh, and I am sharing the wrong market surge. I have two up. Let me share the correct one. I try and put a little green thing to make sure I'm on the right one.

1:34I understand that. But that did not happen this time. There we go. Okay. So the NASDAQ composite finished about with a 0.3 % gain. you know again as I said it was last week that really got things going here the S &P 500 was in a similar state that was finished up about two-tenths of a percent the Russell 2000 was a little disappointing today that you know closed negative but I mean it had a really great day yesterday so it's too hard you know a little bit hard to fault it too much for that given given the move yesterday. And the big thing is that a lot of these indexes are right near their all-time highs.

2:18So for as much as we've had in the NASDAQ and S &P 500, these major wallops like back here on October 10th and then again here on November 20th, it just seems like the market has been recovering okay and continuing to go higher. Yeah, I mean, it's been really, it was really, We've had a number of expectation breakers down and up, but this week was sort of steady. We just sort of kept on doing what we were doing just at a slower pace. I think, if anything, the only thing that we could almost – the market might find a constructive, a pullback, so we could form more handles. But, you know, all the indexes had modest gains.

2:57They're all moving towards highs. As you say, the Russell 2000 almost got there. You know, RSP actually did get there today, backed off a little bit. But it actually hit a record high. So that was showing the breadth. So the market is broad. The market is strong. There's a lot of stocks showing strength. And I was saying, like I was going to write, about the only downside is that there's more homework to do. Now you have to look at a whole bunch of sectors. You can't just say, I'll take the Magnificent Seven and these 10 super high beta names. I mean, you could have done that for a while and you would have been OK for several months.

3:28I mean, but now you have more work. There's medicals. There's metals. You know, there's retail, financials. So there's a lot of things out there that are that are moving. And so it's but that's that's that's the that's the downside is that there's a lot more to look at. Yeah, absolutely. Well, you know, since you brought up R.S.P. and the Magnificent Seven, I feel like it's only fair that we kind of do a little compare and contrast. And I really like what you said earlier this week about how kind of the ideal situation after such a strong week last week would be a little a little pause. Right.

4:05Yeah. And it feels like we got that to a certain degree here on the Nasdaq. Some tight action over the last few days popping out a little bit. Again, not necessarily closing at the highs, but, you know, on the breadth side, as you mentioned, there's a lot of areas that are kind of moving. so in comparison to like the mag 7 or you know fngs that we often look at uh what's what's kind of your take right now on where the puck is headed i guess i don't know and it's also unclear because what if what if some of the high beta names which did start picking up what if they start taking off will the medicals and some of the more defensive growth names not that all the things like the biotech some of those are pretty high beta too but if the if the high beta tech names come up really strong again?

4:53Will then some of the other names fall? I don't know. Actually, one nice thing about this creeping up is that, you know, we talk about often being aggressive, but gradual or aggressive, but cautious, like doing it step by step. But it's been pretty easy to do that. And it's not like the market ran away from us. Okay. Yeah. We had that strong rebound, but then we, okay. So sure. And maybe there was a couple of days where you were a little hesitant to get going. But once we got over the 50 day line, you could start building up and you could to keep buying stuff all this week and adding to your portfolio without the market getting away from you.

5:25So I think in many ways what's been happening has been pretty ideal. I mean, I'm just so happy from where we were two weeks ago where it looked like, oh, man, everything looked terrible. But really, I mean, it's been a really nice rally so far, especially in terms of just adding exposure, you know. So that's certainly been helpful for me. Mm hmm. And, you know, I neglected to mention the Dow Jones industrial average. That was also up for the day, about two tenths of a percent. But closing off the lows, that is also, you know, very close to highs. I guess the big news for next week, a lot of eyes are going to be on the Fed meeting.

6:09And this week we saw, you know, some data start trickling in, you know, that is a little bit late, but better late than never, I suppose. And the 10-year Treasury yield, I'm going to go ahead and throw that up real quick. What's kind of your take on how folks are viewing the Fed rate and also just the Treasury yields in general? Yeah, I mean, I think the markets are pretty locked into a Fed rate cut. But sometimes when the Fed cuts rates, treasury yields rise, especially on the long end. So, I mean, the economic data this week was mixed, but there was, you know, some was soft, some was a little stronger, but nothing that changes the perspective that the Fed is going to cut, at least this one more time.

6:48We're going to look, it's going to be important to see what the Fed says and Powell says. But we also have to know that by mid-May, Powell is out and there's going to be somebody else in there. I think that's one of the other issues is that the front runner for the Fed, you know, Kevin Hazard, is, you know, there's maybe some concerns, whether justified or not, that he's going to be too aggressive or that they're going to be seen as not independent. I think he's trying to do some rhetoric today, trying to sound a little bit more independent. But I think that may be where some of the yield is coming up, where it's just like, I don't know, you know, don't want to get, you know, but we'll see.

7:25I mean, again, I don't want to make too big of a point over a 10 basis point move. The treasury yield is still sort of in a downtrend. I mean, we're not even over the November high. So, I mean, you know, this is like one of my, if your child says, dang, you say, all right, my child is going, you know, profanity-laced tirade. I got to stop this. It's like, eh, it's 10 basis points. We'll see. If it moves sharply from here, then we have something to worry about. Yeah, no, that makes sense. Let's take a look real quick at some of the sector moves before we get into stocks, because it did seem like there were a lot of things, again, setting up, following up from last week's move.

8:05So it was, yeah, as you said, there was plenty to do, but you didn't have to feel like you were necessarily in a rush. And in this case, I'm going to go ahead and start with some of the best first for the day, at least. And, you know, actually, you know what, I'm going to I'm going to mix things up a little bit. I'm going to go with the best for the week. And actually for this week, I think this week that makes a lot of sense because we didn't all not a whole lot today. Yeah. So I'm going to start with IGV software. Now, again, this was kind of clobbered by the likes of Oracle, you know, and Microsoft.

8:40And, you know, those are still kind of recovering on the recovery path. But this is coming up to the 50 day moving average line. So that was actually, again, sometimes the things that are hardest hit are the ones that bounce back the best. Yeah. In your mind. Yeah. Yeah. And then one of the things that kind of also struck me was that jets, the you know, this has a lot of the airlines, a lot of the travel companies. actually. I was noticing things like Expedia and, you know, booking that we're kind of setting up. Even Marriott seemed like that was, you know, doing well until all of a sudden it didn't.

9:18But let's talk a little bit about jets and what's going on there. Yeah, I mean, it just seems like all of a sudden there's some travel going on. I mean, crude oil prices are relatively low. So that's probably helping on that concern, because that's always one issue. You know, it always seems like airlines go on these short runs. I never seem to play them right. And I missed this. I didn't board a tick. The board while it was still going. But we'll see here. I mean, it is nice to see. It's a sign that there seems to be some signs of consumer strength that didn't seem to be there a couple of weeks ago.

9:51And, you know, related, the transportation average, this is the iShares IYT. That's been looking a little bit stronger. Of course, a lot of jets are in there, but it also has the likes of, some of your truckers like, you know, J.B. Hunt and your railroads and so on. Another big winner for this week was the chips. So it seemed like even though it's not necessarily all AI anymore, chips definitely were participating this week. Yeah, and it's interesting because NVIDIA, while it did rise this week, it's still below the 50-day line. So it definitely made them, you know, it advanced. It's sort of maybe setting up to get toward it, but it's not there.

10:34But SMH is doing very well. And that's, I mean, there's Broadcom. Broadcom earnings are probably the big, that may be more important than the Fed, because we sort of know what the Fed might say. It's certainly what the Fed's going to do. We don't know what the Fed's going to say. But Broadcom earnings, there's some other AI earnings, but that's been doing well. Not necessarily, you know, lighting the world on fire this week, but there were definitely a lot of names. So, yeah, so SMH doing very well. one of the nice ways to play it with NVIDIA below the 50-day line and some of the other names like Broadcom maybe a little extended.

11:05SMH has been is not a bad thing way to play the chip sector right now. Yeah and then also another area that was of interest and you're going to talk about JP Morgan a little bit later today. KBWB this is the bank ETF. This is you know had a good week especially on Wednesday. So what's going on here with the banks? Yeah, I mean, I think maybe there's a bit of a wider spread that's always nice for the short to long end. So even the regional banks, I think if you punch up KRE, which has definitely not been doing as well, that has picked up, I think, recently because that was lagging for a while. I'm not saying it's lighting the world on fire, but it's coming back.

11:45So that short, long spread is improving, just maybe general sense of stronger economy for whatever reason, whether you think it's Fed rate cuts or just what have you. There seems to be, whether you look at the transports, you look at retail, you look at the banks, and they're all suggesting that the economy, you know, is going to improve or is in better shape than maybe we thought a little while ago. Another area, you mentioned metals, and one of the metals that has kind of caught people's eye is copper. And SECO is one of the members of leaderboard right now. But what's going on with copper? I mean, again, people often call copper Dr.

12:22Copper as a PhD in economics because it's such an industrial metal. This is a sign, especially of the goods economy, manufacturing around the world, that there's demand. And that huge prop there, there was some weird stuff with tariffs going on. So that's a U.S. price. The global prices, I think, are at record highs out there. But yeah, just again, another sign that there's strength out there, especially in the goods manufacturing sector that didn't seem to be there before. And speaking of strength, ARK Innovation, ARKK, this is still below its 50-day moving average line. But again, it had a pretty good week this week, up 2.8%.

13:04And it kind of goes to show that there's still a little bit more of that risk appetite increasing. Yeah, so that's coming up. That'll be interesting levels. number of names that are high growth, that kind of thing. I mean, Tesla came through. That was a big name. That's ARK's biggest holding. So ARK isn't above there. So Tesla made a nice move. And it was just, you know, you don't know when they get up to the 50-day line, will they move through or not? And, but Tesla did. ARK has not quite done it. But yeah, what's nice is that ARK is coming up, but we're not seeing the other names come up. We're still seeing the medicals.

13:34We're still seeing the other stuff. It's not like there's only so much oxygen. And, oh, the high beta names are coming in. everybody go back out of the pool because the high beta kids want to play again. So it's just adding to the breadth. So it's, again, very encouraging. Yeah. And XLK, again, as you said, it's not like tech isn't participating here. It's not like it's all these defensive areas. Tech had a very good week this week, up 2.4%. For those that may have panicked, there was a two-for-one split here. So, no, you didn't get knocked down 50 % if you had this. There was a two-for-one split in a number of these sector ETFs.

14:20So, XLK, back above its 50-day moving average line. Yeah, I mean, looking good here. Doing exactly what you wanted. You know, so it was lagging a little bit, but coming on again. And I also wanted to spend a little bit of time on XRT. Retail, again, you mentioned a little bit before that, you know, there's some signs that the economy is maybe a little bit better than people thought. And a lot of folks were thinking, OK, consumer discretionary retail was really kind of struggling. And, you know, you can point your finger at whatever you want. But it does seem like there's a little bit more strength to be had here.

14:57Yeah, it's and definitely pockets of strength and discounters and apparel retailers. but there's a number of them. I mean, it's not just one or two Dollar Tree. There's five below American Eagle, but there's probably like nine or 10 that you can easily say, yo, those are doing really well. You know, so definitely, definitely again, another sign of that encouragement. There was a lot of optimism about the holidays, at least among these leaders. Now there's some others that maybe not, but yeah, XRT isn't at highs, but that's overall trending higher and looking pretty good. Mm-hmm. QQEW, again, kind of showing this is the equal weight NASDAQ 100, almost at highs, off its highs a little bit today, but still very close to those all-time highs.

15:44XLE, you know, whether you look at the, you know, explorers and producers, some of those were having a good week this week. But a little bit of a reversal today as it started, you know, coming up to that 4645 resistance area. Yeah, a lot of energy names in this. And there's some better names. This is dominated by Chevron and Exxon, but there's a lot of other names that are doing better. Some, you know, some refiners, some services, and then a lot of natural gas plays that are doing well beyond some of the AI-related energy electricity producers. So energy broadly had a pretty good week. Running through a few other areas, XLC, which is dominated by Google and Meta, that's tracing out a little double bottom here.

16:29Meta seems to be giving a shot at its 50-day moving average line and 200-day moving average line after really getting clobbered earlier. Earlier news this week of job cuts and I guess, was it job cuts or just spending cuts? Spending cuts to the Metaverse project, which never seemed to be. That was something that Zuckerberg cared about and nobody else seemed to. And so people were happy to see that. It's like devote all power to the AI, not Metaverse. Yeah. And then XLY also, as we mentioned with retail, consumer discretionary doing fairly well. Q's had a good week. Again, this was up, you know, up a decent amount for the week.

17:11And SLX, you know, you mentioned again, metals. We talked about copper, but steel has been also getting some attention here. Not a great day today, but for the week, you know, still doing okay for the week. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, again, nice to see that movement. There's even some foreign ones. It's not just tariffs that are helping the local steelmakers. It seems to be overall. So just, again, just big cyclical names are doing well. And cyclical names rise when you think the economy is doing pretty well. That's what's happening here. And then, as we mentioned with banks, XLF having a decent week.

17:51And again, we went from best to worst. So now we're getting into those that were up maybe less than 1 % for the week. XLI, the industrials, that was also up for the week, but, you know, really close to those highs from earlier, just a month or so ago. SPY, as we mentioned, that's almost at highs. FNGS and RSP that we've already talked about. let's spend a little bit of time on XBI because this is just an area that doesn't seem to be you know giving up anything at this point it's and I do have a position in XBI myself but yeah this has been trending really nicely along the 21-day moving average line despite what was going on with the general market.

18:35Yeah it's that's been really really impressive and I wish I'd gotten into this a couple of times and I stepped away do have some exposure to biotech sector, but this is looking very strong. There was some news this week that the FDA might reduce how many clinical trials you need, and so that provided another boost late in the week, but this has been just rallying on a lot of news, and you can find a lot of quality names in this space for sure. Gold. I actually did a column this week on GDX, but this was looking a little interesting earlier in the day, but ended up reversing. What's happening with gold?

19:17I mean, it's still basing, but a lot of people were thinking, well, gosh, this move that it had over the summer, I mean, there's no way that could be sustainable, but it certainly doesn't seem like it's necessarily done yet. Yeah, it doesn't seem like, you know, if you go to GDX, I think that one has been stronger. I mean, the miners tend to outperform to the upside and downside. Some have gotten extended, some have not, but, you know, honestly, that looks pretty good. Now you're getting a pullback. You know, if you didn't get it bouncing off the 50-day line, you can buy things. There's some handles forming on GDX and GLD, and there's some individual names in there.

19:51So whether you go with the ETFs or go with individual names, this might go again. I mean, the Fed meeting could send a big move either way. But yeah, this has been just a really stellar area all year. Mm hmm. Now, of course, staples, which you typically expect to do a little bit better on the defensive side, that's still below its 200 day moving average line. So even when we were going through our little pullback here on the market indexes, XLP still didn't get enough strength to really kind of move the needle there that much above the 200 day moving average line. It did get above the 50 where it still remains, but still, you know, not this is this is definitely not sucking the air out of the room, as you said.

20:36Yeah, no. Even when the market was doing poorly, this really wasn't making real progress. That RS line has been really weak. I mean, modest gains here and there and then falling off. It's just, this has not been a place to be. Yeah. And this is despite, if I'm not mistaken, Walmart, I think, is one of the big members here. Yeah, the retailers, I think, because people are going down. So it's not so much, it's probably more the food, I'm thinking, the packaged food. And just that's where probably some margins are getting squeezed. But whereas Walmart and TGX and those folks are probably getting customers that are higher income to move down to them and are taking advantage of that.

21:09But yeah, that's, I think, what's going on. Mm hmm. ITB, we talked a little bit about the 10 year treasury yield, which, of course, is tied to mortgage rates to a degree that had a really strong looking day on Wednesday, but unfortunately couldn't hold on to the gains. There still are some pockets of strength here, some things that are holding up a little bit better. One of the earnings reports that came out this week was HOV, and that really got clobbered. What was that, down 20 % yesterday. But overall, what's your take on ITB and the home builders? Yeah, I mean, I think there's some excitement about maybe you're going to see, you know, probably on rates, but, you know, if Treasury yields rise in the wake of the Fed, that's not going to help.

21:56I think that's part of the reason the Treasury yields continue to rise. That would be an issue. And I guess I'll be curious, Toll Brothers reports next week, they're a luxury builder, so they're a little bit more insulated because the higher-end income folks are in better shape. I mean, as they usually are, but, you know, with the stock market high and, you know, if eggs are up a little bit more expensive, it doesn't hit the rich so much. But Toll Brothers, it'll be interesting what they say about labor costs, what they say about other costs. Are they really seeing pent-up demand beyond interest rates?

22:26So I think that'll be an important report for the housing sector. Mm hmm. Makes sense. FFTY, which actually does have a lot of gold exposure right now, that did get clobbered, but it is trying to get back up to its 21 day moving average line, still below its 50 day moving average line. So, yeah, still has still has some work to do here. Yeah, and it shows you that, well, ARK is moving up there. But, you know, sometimes there's specific names. Like Tesla is such a big name in ARK. That's helping. And they have some other things. But it does. So there's still some damage in high beta. I mean, yeah, there's a lot of gold in here.

23:01And there's a lot of names that are not high beta names. But it does show you that there's a number of things that are still below. And you want to be above the 50-day line. And the fact that this can't get above the 21-day line isn't a great sign for that field. Yeah. Yeah. And just rounding out again, some of the stocks or some of the groups that were hit this week, XLB, the materials that was that was down for the week. Another one that had a two for one split. So, again, just just be aware of that. XLRE, which is the real estate ETF. This this one's still hovering right around its 50 and 200 day moving average line.

23:38They're almost intertwined at this point. But one of the big moves down here was IBIT. And Bitcoin still really struggling. I mean, it had a couple of good days this week, but overall still down considerably. Yeah. And, you know, it's hitting resistance near the 21 day line. It's done that for a few weeks. And so that did not have it didn't have a good close. It's nice to see because that was one of the culprits. People said either blamed it or put it next to it or said or they were both falling. So it's nice to see that the broader stock market didn't really seem to get hit by Bitcoin. But that's something to watch.

24:16XLV, the medical or healthcare space, I should say, that looks like it's, you know, you pull back to the weekly here. It looks like it's just building a handle. So definitely XBI, the Biomed Biotech ETF, a lot stronger than healthcare. This didn't have a great week. What was dragging this down? Well, at least from the big pharma. I mean, like Lilly is down for seven straight days. Now, you could say that's a constructive pullback, but that's a pullback. And it hasn't yet. You know, maybe it bounces off the 21-day line, maybe it doesn't, but Merck was down, has shown similar action, again, after a big move.

24:51So those are a couple of names that I can think of. I didn't dig through all of it. And it could be that some of the positive FDA news, I mean, that may not be great for Lilly. If this means that we get rival obesity treatments, say, or rivals. So these established companies, again, I don't know how that all plays out. I mean, you'd have to look at individual names, which ones have all these drugs that are under threat, which ones have trials that could be benefiting from it. But, you know, I suspect that's what's going on. I mean, it's a sort of a well-deserved rest for some of these names. But, yeah, not a great week for them.