Dip Buyers Beware? Watch These Levels; Cloudflare, F5, Brinker In Focus

17 Jul 2026 · 49 min · 22 chapters

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In short

Weekly market wrap (July 17) using IBD trend-following “levels” and warnings about “trap doors.”

Key claims

major indexes finished weak (NASDAQ -1.4%, S&P -1%, Dow below 21-day, Russell 2000 back below 21-day). Leadership deterioration: many AI leaders down ~40%+ from highs; weekly action often “finishing weak” is bearish. Expect “chop” unless catalysts/earnings/AI relief arrive. Levels: NASDAQ reversal low around 25,526; round 25,000 as downside magnet; next potential drop ~24,000; upside watch Wednesday highs. Sector/ETF notes: energy (XLE, XOP) was the main bright spot; SMH and DRAM show trend damage; cybersecurity software (HACK/HACC) and insurance (KIE) holding up; biotech rotation via XBI.

Guests

Alyssa Coram and Justin Nielsen (hosts/analysts). No external guests named.

Notable examples

Cloudflare (NET), F5 (FFIV), Brinker (EAT), plus ETFs QQQ/SMH/DRAM (memory), XLE/XOP, HACK/HACC, KIE, XLV/XBI, VOO/RSP.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Market Indexes Review

1:35 to 2:19

An analysis of major indexes and their performance this week.

“We are gonna take some little contrasts with the weekly and daily charts on these.”

Growth Stock Trends

2:19 to 3:04

Discussion on growth stocks and their recent movement below key levels.

“It was able to come off lows some, but we'll add the IABD perspective of what we should read into this.”

Bearish Market Signals

3:04 to 4:00

Exploring signs of a bearish market and how traders should respond.

“And again, we had this look from a little bit over a week ago where we had another upside reversal and we were starting to get some traction.”

Leadership Changes in Stocks

4:00 to 4:52

Identifying changes in stock leadership and their implications.

“that October to February time period because so much of that was sideways.”

Key Levels to Watch

4:52 to 5:44

Discussion on critical support levels and future market movements.

“OK, so in terms of where we closed for the NASDAQ, you know, 25 ,500 and change that reversal low that you pointed out, the low there was 25 ,526.”

Weekly Market Analysis

5:44 to 6:36

A deep dive into weekly market performance and investor sentiment.

“It's one thing to test an area, have a successful test where you do close above the low.”

Market Chop and Risk Management

6:36 to 7:42

Understanding market chop and strategies to manage risks in trading.

“That's that's the sign of a bear market.”

Market Trends and Dynamics

7:42 to 8:33

Exploring broader market trends and dynamics affecting stocks.

“And, you know, these are not stocks like the AAOIs of the world that you want to continue to hold as they break the key 50-day line and then continue to live below that level.”

Sector Performance and Market Outlook

8:33 to 10:29

Analyzing sector performance and the outlook for the coming weeks.

“Yeah, no, at the very least, my expectation is for CHOP.”

NASDAQ 100 Overview

10:29 to 14:00

In-depth analysis of the NASDAQ 100's recent performance and trends.

“It still has a again that look of starting strong, finishing weak.”
Show all 22 chapters

Market Analysis and Warning Signs

14:00 to 19:26

Discussion of the current state of the S&P and NASDAQ, highlighting warning signs for investors.

“You've already been there, done that, right?”

Energy Sector Insights

19:33 to 23:00

Insights into the performance of the energy sector and notable stocks in the market.

“And so speaking of energy, another one to look at is the XOP, exploration reduction, also outperforming.”

Sector Performances and Trends

23:00 to 28:00

Discussion on various sectors, including chips, software, insurance, and biotech, analyzing their recent trends.

“But this is not the position that we're really looking for these pullbacks.”

Exploring Biotech Investments

28:00 to 30:23

Learn about the different segments within the biotech industry and how to invest in them.

“Actually, that's what I wrote my column on today.”

Analyzing Cloudflare's Market Position

30:23 to 32:48

Delve into Cloudflare's stock performance and its implications for investors.

“And I'm going to turn our attention to Cloudflare.”

Understanding F5's Market Challenges

32:48 to 35:20

Examine F5 Networks' current market environment and upcoming earnings risks.

“And if it can prove itself and do well, then maybe I can turn it into a position trade.”

Brinker International's Growth Prospects

35:20 to 40:06

Assess Brinker International's recent performance and future opportunities in the restaurant sector.

“First touch of that level for this stock since the breakout in that April timeframe, especially with that move on earnings.”

Strategizing for Market Volatility

40:06 to 42:03

Discuss strategies for navigating current market volatility and protecting investments.

“Your moving averages all moving in the right direction.”

Managing Risk in a Volatile Market

42:03 to 45:57

Learn strategies for managing risk and protecting your portfolio during earnings season.

“Know which ones that you are maybe a little bit late on getting out of and plan your exit.”

The Importance of Process Over Outcome

45:58 to 46:56

Understand the significance of maintaining a solid trading process rather than focusing solely on outcomes.

“Are you seeing decisive breaks of key levels, whether it be price or moving average.”

Insights from Expert Traders

46:57 to 47:48

Gain insights from top traders on using moving averages and market analysis to avoid losses.

“And I think that there's a lot of these lessons that we've been sharing on a regular basis on IBD Live.”

Insights from Expert Traders

48:19 to 48:59

Gain insights from top traders on using moving averages and market analysis to avoid losses.

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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Justin Nielsen:Over 60 years, Medline has demonstrated a track record of delivering consistent growth. Today, Medline is proudly NASDAQ-listed and is the largest provider of medical surgical products and supply chain solutions serving all points of care. See how Medline makes healthcare run better at Medline.com.

0:15Alissa Coram:Isn't home where we all want to be?

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0:30Alissa Coram:Download the Realtor.com app because you're nearly home. Make it real with Realtor.com. Pros, number one most trusted app based on August 2025 proprietary survey. Over 500 ,000 new listings every month based on average new for sale and rental listings, July 2024 to June 2025.

0:53five.

0:55Justin Nielsen:Good afternoon, everyone. It's Alyssa Coram and Justin Nielsen here with a look at the stock market today for Friday, July 17th. Justin, great to see you on a Friday.

1:06Alissa Coram:Great to see you as well. And we just wish it was a better Friday, right? I know, right.

1:13Justin Nielsen:But it's Fridays like these, where IEBD's analysis is more important than ever. So we will get into the levels that we're watching on the major indexes, some stocks to watch as always. And Justin, you gave me a list of quite a few tickers that help paint the picture of what went down this week. So looking forward to getting into all that with you.

1:35Alissa Coram:Yeah, and it's interesting. We are gonna take some little contrasts with the weekly and daily charts on these. So we'll start with F5. FFIV is the ticker symbol there. We'll also go into Brinker, a restaurant stock. Eat is the ticker symbol. I love when they come up with those wonderful ticker symbols. And then we'll also look at Net, Cloudflare, which is also a pretty decent ticker symbol. Yeah.

1:59Justin Nielsen:And some lessons that we'll go through. So I love that approach, Justin. We will get to all that fun stuff. But first, even though it was a little ugly out there, especially intraday, we must take a look, even though it hurts our eyes, at those major indexes. Here's a look at the NASDAQ composite finishing the day down about 1.4 percent, much steeper losses intraday. It was able to come off lows some, but we'll add the IABD perspective of what we should read into this. Meanwhile, the S &P 500, we can see it with the VOO ETF, down about 1 percent on the day. blue chips down eight-tenths of a percent.

2:45Justin Nielsen:A close below the 21-day line here, Justin, for the first time in a while for the Dow. And then looking at small caps, the Russell 2000 also back below the 21-day line, still hanging above that 50-day. So could that be a support level that we get a bounce from? We'll have to see. But a lot of growth stock traders look at the NASDAQ very closely. So let's start there. This was not a good finish to the week.

3:13Alissa Coram:No, not at all. And again, we had this look from a little bit over a week ago where we had another upside reversal and we were starting to get some traction. And then, yeah, you get one day above the 21, where the low stays above the 21 day moving average line. And that's about all you can muster right back down below it and maybe one more and then right back down below it. Just very choppy. And this is look, we are a trend following methodology and it's it's pretty easy when you're in a downtrend. We just kind of stay out. It's pretty easy when you're an uptrend. That's where we like to push it.

3:54Alissa Coram:That's where we like to make money. This sideways action. this is where it's really tough. So I've, you know, I kind of had a little bit of trouble in that October to February time period because so much of that was sideways. And this time around, I'm just like, I don't want to play that game. So I have certainly like that. It's starting to look

4:15Justin Nielsen:really similar. It is.

4:18Alissa Coram:And there were all these times where, again, you're seeing upside reversals. You're saying, oh, well, maybe this is it. This is the bottom. And, you know, David Ryan keeps on referring to the trap doors. And that just look when you know, you know, if Indiana Jones is walking through a temple and he knows there's trap doors everywhere, what is he going to do? He's going to step lightly. So that's what I feel like we need to do in this market.

4:43Justin Nielsen:Great stuff. But your son was Indiana Jones for Halloween one day.

4:46Alissa Coram:He was. Yes, we were just looking at that picture. He did such a great job. Oh, yeah.

4:52Justin Nielsen:Memories. OK, so in terms of where we closed for the NASDAQ, you know, 25 ,500 and change that reversal low that you pointed out, the low there was 25 ,526. We closed at 25 ,520. So we closed below that reversal low. I feel like Webby was here. So in the spirit of Webby, I feel like that's one level potentially that he would be watching at level that we're watching at IBD. And even though we did see some dip buyers come in, try to support stocks, chips, one area in particular we'll look at, we did see that come off lows. But still, you know, we weren't even able to close above that 7-8 low, Justin, even with some dip buyers trying to come in and support things.

5:43Alissa Coram:Yeah. And that's the thing. It's one thing to test an area, have a successful test where you do close above the low. But the fact that we couldn't muster a close above that low. And now keep in mind, yes, it looks like it's kind of in the upper part of the range if you're looking at the high and the low. But if you really consider yesterday's close, it's in the lower part of the range. So nice that it got some support. But look, it was still a day that was down one and a half percent. And let's just go ahead and take that step back to the weekly chart. It's kind of an ugly look there. You know, the the action here is a lot of weeks finishing at the lows.

6:25Alissa Coram:And that is the opposite of what we want to see. So when you start getting into the kind of that habit of starting strong, finishing weak, that's not a good look. That's that's the sign of a bear market. And it's not to say that we're in a bear market, but that is absolutely bearish action where the buyers just aren't strong enough to maintain the levels. And that's what I feel like we're seeing right now. And make no mistake, the indexes are just one part of this. The leading stocks are really kind of they were the canary in the coal mine because as the indexes were coming in and some of them were holding up pretty well, they were already seeing a lot of destruction in the AI leaders that had really led this rally.

7:11Alissa Coram:And now we're seeing many of these that are it's, you know, forget about the 25 percent correction. We're under 50 percent for a lot of these. Forty percent is kind of like I feel like the average for a lot of them. So that's that's a little bit more serious. You know, it's great when you have hundreds of percent gains, but when you lose half of it, that can that can leave a mark.

7:34Justin Nielsen:It sure can. Yeah. So we started seeing a lot of character changes in the leadership. And, you know, these are not stocks like the AAOIs of the world that you want to continue to hold as they break the key 50-day line and then continue to live below that level. So, you know, that is the concern there. And then in terms of other levels that we're watching on the NASDAQ, Justin, to the downside, that round number 25 ,000 also coincides with some lows from the June timeframe. So, you know, are we a magnet to that level? Maybe. Could we see more chop? It does seem like, you know, unless we get some pretty significant catalysts out there, whether it's, you know, earnings and Mideast and AI relief, you know, fears easing there.

8:29Justin Nielsen:It seems like we need something to get the market back in gear. But what are your thoughts?

8:35Alissa Coram:Yeah, no, at the very least, my expectation is for CHOP. You know, even if we hold above that$25 ,000, it's going to be hard to get me super excited. Now, on the upside, I am looking at kind of the highs. Yep, right there, the Wednesday highs, because that just coincides to a level that was tested a number of times, really couldn't punch through it in a meaningful way. So if we can punch through that, that might look interesting. But, you know, certainly if we punch down below those June 9th lows that were already tested once and we lose that 25 ,000 level, it starts to look like a kind of look out below.

9:16Alissa Coram:I mean, there was, you know, maybe a little bit of a consolidation where we got support at the, is that your 10 day or is that an eight week for you?

9:24Justin Nielsen:We've got the eight EMA. The moving average, eight EMA.

9:27Alissa Coram:So, you know, there was that area back in April where we kind of got support, you know, at the 8 EMA on the NASDAQ. So that might be a level. Otherwise, you're kind of looking at 24 ,000 as your next drop. Right. You know, and it doesn't mean that we have to go down all that way. But, you know, even the choppiness, you know, is where you can really find that danger because these upside reversals can be very tempting. You know, at this point, I'm at the point where I would really like to see a follow through day action happen because we just had so much distribution for this market. And again, the leadership kind of got dropped in such a big way.

10:09Alissa Coram:And the hard part was that we were seeing rotation. We were seeing some areas to go into. And those are still holding up fairly well. But when you look at RSP, for instance, you know, RSP, this is the equal weighted S &P 500. And while this this was looking a lot stronger, I mean, look, we're still not that far off of all time highs. Yeah. It still has a again that look of starting strong, finishing weak. And that just seems like it's it's the personality now. It's not a one day thing. It's like a it's a typical thing for it. And that just that concerns me. So as much as I appreciate how RSP is holding up, the fact that it just always ends weak is something that does does have me a little concerned.

10:58Justin Nielsen:Yeah, especially when you're starting new positions that, you know, it just the environment is we're not in that power trend environment anymore. Right. You know, so.

11:08Alissa Coram:Well, it still exists for the S &P 500 technically. Right. But it's under pressure. The feel of it. The feel of it. Yeah, so.

11:16Justin Nielsen:The easy money, period.

11:18Alissa Coram:Absolutely. You know, because again, typically what you see in a power trend is when you get that 21-day crossing, you really kind of get that gap, that expansion between the 21-day and 50-day moving average line. And now what we've seen is a lot more narrowing. And in particular, when you get a close below the 50-day moving average line, you don't have to wait. for the 21-day to cross below the 50-day moving average line. There are all these signals, the 21-day moving average line crossing below that, the 50-day line, not holding support levels. Those are all things that you need to act on instead of just waiting for that final nail in the coffin, if you will.

12:00Alissa Coram:So, yes, while the power trend is technically still intact, the gap is nowhere near what it used to be. The easy money, as you said, Allie, it's just not there to be had. So it does have that feeling of, OK, you're picking up nickels in front of steamrollers. And that just is a recipe for potential disaster because you are risking more in an environment that is just not willing to give you much money in return for your risk.

12:26Justin Nielsen:Yeah, I mean, going back to a week ago, the S &P was in such a strong position, right? And we were seeing the rotation, yes, but, you know, leaders in these other groups, but some tricky action, you know, with the cybersecurity stocks, I think this week, right? Like, you know, the data dog type stocks, you know, trying to poke out but pulling in, still holding up, you know, above the 21 day. And then we also talked about stocks like Dell, right, that, you know, seemed like, hey, this is an AI leader that's still holding up. It had a really rough back half of the week. So even the setups that were looking good earlier this week, not easy to navigate.

13:16Yeah.

13:17Alissa Coram:And again, it kind of goes back to that idea of, you know, the trap doors, the booby traps everywhere where you kind of you start testing, you know, testing before you walk on it and you think you're OK. And then as soon as you put a lot of weight on it, boom, the floor just drops out. And that's exactly what happened with that. I thought this was a great looking chart. I had it. I was looking forward to a potentially great move coming out of a high tight flag. and then, you know, again, the floor dropped out. So you can either, you know, fight it and say, well, you know, it's still holding up or you can say, yeah, something's wrong.

13:51Alissa Coram:You know, things aren't working and I'm gonna just do whatever I can to protect myself. I don't wanna fall in any holes and break my ankle. I'm too old to recover from that stuff.

14:04Justin Nielsen:You've already been there, done that, right?

14:07Alissa Coram:Yes, exactly.

14:10Justin Nielsen:That's a young man's game. Yeah, exactly. So the S &P below the 50-day, a close below that level. So that's definitely a warning sign for us. Still above the reversal low from the 8th of the month in that 680 level on this VOO that we've been looking at. Let's also, Justin, get your quick thoughts on the NASDAQ 100, because this also tested a low, undercut the 7.8 reversal low pretty handily and is testing the lows from early June.

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14:50Alissa Coram:Yeah, it looks even worse. And there have been some days here where the Qs and the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ 100 versus the NASDAQ composite have really been, you know, a lot more divergent than we would expect. Because, look, the NASDAQ 100, and you brought this up, Ali, in kind of an internal dialogue, you know, we were kind of scratching our heads. What's causing the divergence? And, of course, the NASDAQ 100 doesn't, it's made up of non-financial companies, right? The financials are specifically X'd out of that. But the truth is the financials aren't heavily represented in terms of market cap in the NASDAQ composite anyway.

15:29Alissa Coram:So it really is kind of a head scratcher. There's just a lot of weakness. And usually, again, when something seems off and I can't quite figure it out, I generally, again, want to tread a little bit lighter. It's just, you know, if I hear the eerie music and I don't know what's around the corner, I'm just going to play a little scared. And so that's where I am right now. And look, you can point to the fact that it held up at that June 9th low as being a positive. But I'm starting to look at how comfortable this is getting below the 50-day moving average line. How, you know, the rallies can't last.

16:09Alissa Coram:It seems like you're getting up to kind of a channel line. And if you start drawing a line at the tops, you kind of get up almost to that line, but you just can't punch through. Or if you do punch through, you are immediately punished. Again, there's just a lot of reasons, I think, to be a lot more cautious in this market. And everything that I'm saying right now is really more on the short term, you know, because long term, I think that there's a lot of positive things. You know, this could just be the seventh inning stretch or, you know, a little a little pausa de hidratation if you're watching the World Cup, you know, those hydration breaks that they've been taking.

16:51Alissa Coram:So, you know, that could be what we're dealing with here. But at the same time, you know, things could get worse. Things could get better. You almost have to have your Schrodinger's cap hat on there, you know, because both of those are very possible. at this point, we just have to wait for the market to tell us which one it's going to do. And so that's the trick is being patient during that time, building up the clues, trying to kind of develop a hypothesis and being willing to completely abandon that hypothesis if your observations are starting to say, yeah, that hypothesis was wrong. So being able to kind of, you know, flip with the market is an important thing and also to be ready.

17:34Alissa Coram:That's why one of the things that Chris Gessel was talking about on IBD Live today was, hey, this is when you have to make sure you've got your watch list. You know, you're looking to see what relative strength things are holding up, which things are looking the best, and be willing to say, look, it's also possible that these rotation plays that are working a little bit better right now, the money could go right back out of them. So you have to have all of these things in your playbook. And that's where the weekend really comes in handy to kind of take a breath. You don't have the lights flashing at you, green and red and everything else.

18:07Alissa Coram:You don't have to make all these decisions. You can just kind of, you know, take a deep breath, do some research, plot out your plan, and then wait and see, you know, how the market reacts to that. And again, be willing to change.

18:21Justin Nielsen:Yeah.

18:21Alissa Coram:One other thing, again, going back to the RSP thing that I was going to mention is in terms of the sector spider ETFs, one of the things that was notable about today, whereas a lot of times we've had, you know, a lot of the, you know, a lot of those sectors down, but some are up, you know, and they've been flip-flopping back and forth. It was pretty much all down today. The only bright spot at all was XLE, you know, energy and the oil and gas particularly strong lately. So it's a little rough when it's kind of like there's abandon all hope, because nothing was working except for energy today, for the most part, in those sectors.

19:08Justin Nielsen:Hi, this is Alex Osula, host of the WSJ's What's News podcast. We bring you the biggest news of the day, from business and finance to global and political developments that move markets. If you're looking for more insights and tools to understand the latest headlines, consider becoming a subscriber to The Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.wsj.com slash what's news to subscribe now. Yeah. Okay. And so speaking of energy, another one to look at is the XOP, exploration reduction, also outperforming. We can go to crack. This is the refiner. It's a breakout that has extended its gains all week. Yeah.

19:53Alissa Coram:And Rachel and I talked about this on the Monday SMT. So it kind of makes sense that we're ending where we started. You know, this was, you know, already starting to get a little extended on Monday. And that has just, you know, piled on the gains. You know, we looked at, you know, a stock like DINL, HF Sinclair on Monday. And that's just continued. And again, the reason why it's called crack is because of the crack spread, right? That difference between the... It's not addicting. Yes, exactly. But right now, this is this is what's working. And you could certainly see headlines really kind of put a trapdoor on these.

20:32Alissa Coram:But it's important to know what's working. And it doesn't mean you have to trade it. You know, it's just important to know, again, what what's working right now, where the strength is.

20:41Justin Nielsen:Yep, exactly. Okay. I briefly mentioned the chip sector. So some notable deterioration here this week, Justin, even with today's close off lows, SMH down about 2.2 % on the day for the week, down almost 9%. And this is the first close below the 10-week line on a weekly basis since this big move. So this is a notable development on the chart.

21:13Alissa Coram:Yeah, absolutely. When, you know, when a stock or ETF is breaking below that 10-week moving average line, it's telling you something. You know, the personality was one way. It has changed its personality. The trend was, you know, looking very nice. that trend has changed, at least again on the short term. So while a lot of times we do like to engage when there's a pullback, it has to be remembered that when we're talking about pullbacks, we're not trying to buy at the bottom. We're not trying to catch the lowest price. We're trying to get into things as they're taking breaks along their uptrend.

21:55Alissa Coram:Right now, long term, this might still be in an uptrend, but short term, you're getting week after week, again, closing at the lows, you're losing that 10 week moving average line. And so this trend is changing. And so we don't start trying to get the bottoms and look for those upside reversals when we are in a downtrend. It's one of those things where that's why we wait for the follow-through day. We wait for kind of not just the rally, but the confirmation of the rally. We want to have those two points to say, yes, the trend has changed. But right now, I think this downtrend is really taking hold.

22:31Alissa Coram:And so we have to be a little bit more cautious with those upside reversals. Let's look at DRAM, which is the memory chips, the ETF there. And if we go back to the daily chart, well, first of all, let's look at the weekly chart here. You know, yes, if we look at the daily, we're going to see that it was off its lows. And you can see that on the weekly. But do you feel great about it? Yeah. Terrible week. Being that far down? Yeah. 16 % decline. Exactly. So let's look at the daily here. And yes, it was an upside reversal. But this is not the position that we're really looking for these pullbacks.

23:10Alissa Coram:You know, this is already kind of broken the trend.

23:12Justin Nielsen:You know, like this May reversal. You have the uptrend pullback to more of a rising 21 day. Exactly. That's more of what we want to see.

23:21Alissa Coram:But, you know, when you start seeing your 21 day moving average line get in a firm downtrend, when you see that 50 day moving average line flattening out, when you see all of those things start to curve, that's letting you know, hey, the trend is changing and it's best to pay attention. Again, our whole methodology is built on trend following. So you have to be very cognizant of when that trend changes both ways.

23:47Justin Nielsen:Yeah. Oh, definitely. Okay. Just a few more ETFs that we want to take a look at. We've been talking about cybersecurity and this continued rotation to software, Justin. So I think in terms of the tech or maybe AI kind of adjacent, it seems like software is an area that is holding up and particularly cybersecurity software, an area that's holding up exceptionally well.

24:12Alissa Coram:Yes, and I do have a position in HACC, but a very different look here. So all of those moving averages that we talked about, those are all still in uptrends for HACC. Now they weren't a few months ago, right? We saw those in flat while the market was roaring in April. But now these are in solid uptrends. And so the reversals are something different here. If I saw this pulling back to the 21-day moving average line, I'd be more inclined to say, oh, maybe this is something that I could add to. Again, I'm a little bit more cautious right now just because of how many trapdoors there are. But certainly the position of this reversal is very different from the SMH, the DRAM, and, you know, a lot of those areas.

24:56Alissa Coram:So again, this is an area that continues to hold up. And a lot of the top stocks in here are looking decent. Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Okta, FTNT, those are all in a very different position than these AI leaders that we've been talking about since the April 8th follow-through day.

25:20Justin Nielsen:Mm-hmm. And let's go to KIE, the insurance area. So we've talked about this rotation to financials and some other areas. Here's the insurance ETF. So a bounce after a little pullback.

25:38Alissa Coram:Another area that really didn't participate in a lot of the rally, though, HACC kind of came on a little bit quicker. This one seems like it's just starting to get going. And look, the truth is insurance is something that usually is a little bit more of a defensive play. Those are it's something for those institutional investors where they still have to be fully invested. Right. That's their mandate. They can't just go to cash like we can as retail investors. You know, they they have put in their prospectus that they will maintain a certain amount of invested percentage and a cash position that doesn't go above a certain amount.

26:13Alissa Coram:So what do they do? They look for places where they're not going to get hurt. And insurance is certainly one of those places. Staples tends to be another one. But yeah, if you're one of those investors that is looking for a place to hide, then the insurance, the insurance area is certainly worth looking at. A lot of names looking interesting there. Or again, you can just look at the ETF itself. Or what I like to do sometimes is when I find an ETF that's doing well, sometimes I'll just look at the constituents and say, hey, are there a lot of constituents in here that I don't want that are really weak?

26:51Alissa Coram:And it's really kind of a specific segment that is strong or is a whole group strong? And sometimes I can find some great ideas just looking at the holdings of some of these ETFs. Yeah, that's a good point.

27:02Justin Nielsen:Okay, and then one more area that we want to touch on before we get to the individual stocks, and that's the healthcare and biotech. We did see XLV reverse lower on the day after a bounce earlier this week. It did still close up for the week just a little bit. But if you look at the relative strength line, you know, we are seeing a notable shift here. But the biotech area is a little more growthy that we've been focusing on. And that's been pulling back lately. But today, a really interesting reversal at the 21 day. What are your thoughts on what we're seeing with this health and biotech rotation area this week?

27:45Alissa Coram:Yeah, the biotech certainly seems stronger. I mean, look at look at how it blasted out of that base and just really kind of didn't look back. Now, look, we had an upside reversal just a couple of days ago. This was something that we tried on Swing Trader and we immediately backed out. Actually, that's what I wrote my column on today. I personally would have actually kept this position myself, but because I was writing about it, I had to I had to exit out of it. But yeah, I thought it was looking interesting. Take one for the team. Take one for the team. But I do think this is still worth looking at.

28:20Alissa Coram:And one of the things I like about XBI is I am not one to go into the development biotech myself. And again, we did split up our industry groups. The biotech area was huge, about 800 stocks in there. But we separated out to the development biotech. Those are the ones that don't have earnings and they don't have revenue because a lot of times they're still getting their products to market. There are the ones that are starting to get revenue and at least$100 million over the last four quarters is what we call our revenue biotech. And then there's the profitable ones that are actually making money, despite the fact that they still might have large research and development, but they're still clearing profits enough to make that thing.

29:02Alissa Coram:And XBI, to be honest with you, this is a way that I can actually participate in a lot of these development biotechs that I just don't have the stomach for, waiting for their clinical trial or FDA approval or, you know, the market to say, hey, yeah, we like your product. And I was looking at the holdings here and actually 60 percent of XBI is in the development biotech group stocks. So it's a great way to get that exposure without the single stock risk. Yeah, the single stock risk, because, again, this is very spread out. It's not market cap weighted. It's a modified equal weighting and it's about 147 stocks, again, 60 percent of which are in the development biotech area.

29:46Alissa Coram:So that one looks strong, but getting to XLV, which is a little bit more broader and market cap weighted. That was a, and I do have a position here still, but I'm not thrilled with this downside of reversal. And again, it just goes to show that there are still areas that they look great. This is still an uptrend. All those moving averages going the way that you want them to, but not a good finish for the day. Yeah.

30:16Justin Nielsen:Okay. And Justin, if you could check the MarketPulse Slack channel, that would be great. I did see some grumblings.

30:22Alissa Coram:Yep.

30:22Justin Nielsen:All right. And I'm going to turn our attention to Cloudflare. So I'll kick things off for us there while you deal with that. So Cloudflare in this software sector that we've been seeing the money flowing to shares up 1.9 % on the day and upside reversal. On IABD Live this morning, we were taking a look at stocks of, okay, what were some of the first ones to go green, right? In a really bad open. What are some stocks that were going green first? You do have Cloudflare in that camp and the relative strength since it's bounced off of the 50-day in mid-June has been pretty impressive. But you look at this daily chart and there's a lot of chop and slop.

31:07Justin Nielsen:So even though it's in this up and coming enterprise software group and the short term relative strength is great, Justin, you know, and I know you're, I'm still talking. So don't worry, you do what you need to do. You know, it does have a lot going for it in the short term. But you look at this chart and the personality is just so choppy. I feel like even the weekly chart, it does smooth things out a little bit over the last couple of weeks. But, you know, resistance of the breakout area, you look at a number of these bars within the base here and you see some really weak closes, some sharp breaks.

31:47Justin Nielsen:Yes, some supporting action a little bit at the bottom of the base. So I think that it is notable, a notable name in the software sector, but it also has a lot of warts.

32:02Alissa Coram:Yeah. And the thing about NET is it is a computer software enterprise, but it does have some of that kind of cybersecurity flair to it as well. But, you know, the thing is that there's just a lot of this choppy action and it's really hard to make progress on things when you're when you're seeing that. In fact, when this one was brought up on IBD Live, we had Leif Sereda on, who, former U.S. investing champion and, you know, really a great swing trader. And, yeah, the first look was kind of, ooh, you know, there's just a lot of choppiness. And it's really hard to make headway. Again, we're a trend-following system.

32:39Alissa Coram:And when you have it going up and down like this, you know, how do you manage risk exactly? You know, so at least for a day like today, you know, if a lot of times what I like to do is I like to start something out as a swing trade. And if it can prove itself and do well, then maybe I can turn it into a position trade. But at least at the very least, you can use today's low as a as a stop. And you look if it crosses below it. No questions. No excuses. You just cut. But although I will say the preferable way to do that is kind of like what you were suggesting earlier is, you know, and Scott St.

33:21Alissa Coram:Clair was doing this live on the show. Hey, what are the first ones to turn green or what are the first ones to get in the upper part, you know, turn green from their candle, from their open? And to your point, if you look at the intraday chart on this, that could have given you a little bit of an earlier entry because. and again, you can start small and then put more towards it if it starts working out for you. But even with the being kind of on the early side here, the fact that it came down so much, you have to still look at, okay, what kind of percentage am I looking at there? Am I willing in this market right now to take that much of a risk?

34:06Alissa Coram:And on the daily chart, if we go back there, you also have to kind of think, what kind of return am I looking at? You know, where do you think it's reasonable to go to? Because you really want to get a sense of, is my return potentially enough to make up for that risk? And one of the points that Leif was bringing up is for some of these, he's like, yeah, I could see myself getting about as much as I'm risking. That's not what we want to do. We want to put it more in our favor. We want the risk to be asymmetric. We want to be risking maybe one unit for the potential return of three, which is what I was kind of looking at for XBI, to be honest with you, because looking at that, you know, a few days ago, we were looking at like a 2 % risk if it undercut the low of two days ago.

34:54Alissa Coram:And we were looking at a potential gain of 6 % if it got back to the old highs. Well, that's a three to one ratio. That's the kind of thing that we're doing. And I'm just not sure that net is providing that right now.

35:09Justin Nielsen:Well, a good lesson there. So thanks for mentioning that. Yeah, IBD Live with Leif was awesome this morning. Let's also go to F5, a reversal off of the 50-day. First touch of that level for this stock since the breakout in that April timeframe, especially with that move on earnings. I saw a lot of momentum after that in late April. So what do you think about these? It seems like these are the stocks that can kind of tempt you. But is this really the environment where it's worth sticking your neck out? And we do have earnings coming up in 10 days for this stock.

35:50Alissa Coram:Right. So that's a big thing that we are going to have to contend with. Not only do we have the headlines of Iran and, you know, what's happening with the Strait of Hormuz, but we also have earnings season coming. And remember, it's not just about the earnings of the stocks that you own, but sometimes it can be the earnings of competitors, suppliers, vendors. It's a lot to keep track of. You know, even just, you know, sometimes the Magnificent Seven, because they are such big buyers of supplies, then it's something that can trickle down. You know, what they say about their CapEx spending and everything else can really kind of trickle down to everyone else.

36:29Alissa Coram:But, you know, looking at the weekly chart, if we kind of start there, you know, this is an uptrend. So it has that going for it. It did take that pause. It is getting support, not just at the 50-day moving average line. I also like that it got that support at 400. But we are in a situation where, you know, some of these weekly charts, as much as the daily looked okay, hey, these weekly charts, you know, it was a situation where we were in the bottom part of our range. So I think you have to be a little bit careful in terms of, again, we've seen so many trap doors here. Be a little bit careful.

37:08Alissa Coram:Even with the upside reversals and uptrending stocks that we're seeing, there have been so many trap doors. I think going with some lighter positions make sense. And then you can always add to them later.

37:21Justin Nielsen:Yeah. And we do love these reversals off of the keep moving averages. And it's a great way to manage your risk, right? Versus waiting for the move to highs, right? And then seeing a pullback after that. So.

37:36Alissa Coram:Well, especially in this environment, when a lot of those moves to highs don't last very long, right? You get a breakout and then it comes right in or you're crossing a downtrend and then it comes right in. So and the other thing to to just be wary of is that with a lot of these wider spreads, sometimes you do you want to calculate what that risk is and size your position accordingly, because just because it's a downside reversal where you can manage your risk at a reasonable level, you still want to make sure that there wasn't such a wide move that you're looking at an outsized potential loss, especially when you're not looking at a potential return that can compensate you for that risk.

38:21Alissa Coram:And that's the biggest concern right now is whether that return is there.

38:26Justin Nielsen:And then we want to round things out with a look at EAT. This is Brinker International breaking out this week. I feel like we've been talking more about the restaurant stocks lately, Justin's. And this is one that's making progress back, you know, almost to those prior highs. It's getting right there.

38:47Alissa Coram:And look at the difference at the weekly chart here. Look at how this one has been closing lately. It's been closing at the top of its range. Week after week after week where it's been up. My biggest concern with this one was that I wanted it to take a pause. And this is actually not a bad place for it to take a pause. It did kind of have a two-day pause if you, you know, if you look at that on the daily. You know, was that enough? I'm not sure. But, you know, it really did have kind of a steady move up off the bottom all the way from 124 to now at 190. That's a pretty decent move off the bottom.

39:22Alissa Coram:So certainly taking a little bit of a break is is perfectly fine here. But that handle, if it does form one, could be another opportunity for getting into this one. And while the revenue growth is a little lackluster, that's some, you know, pretty solid earnings growth that last quarter, or I guess that's the estimate coming up. And if you look at the yearly annual numbers for the estimates, you know, 21 % is no slouch, especially going off of some great annual numbers the prior couple years. So, yes, it's deceleration, but still, you know, it's very decent numbers. And again, we've got a chart that is kind of going in our favor, a relative strength line that is trending the right way.

40:06Alissa Coram:Your moving averages all moving in the right direction. And so a very different look. And again, that weekly chart just showing a different picture of the way this is closing versus a lot of the tech stocks that we were looking at. Yep.

40:21Justin Nielsen:Okay, Justin. So with all of that to digest, what should we be thinking about for the week ahead? Yeah, I think, again, it comes.

40:32Alissa Coram:Oh, bless you. I think, again, it comes down to the treading lightly. You know, we've seen so many trapdoors. It's, I think, completely legitimate to not be trying to hold out for the big gains right now, but to focus a little bit more on the defensive side. How do I protect the gains that I got from this rally? And that's a very important thing. You know, a lot of times people will be, let's face it, it's easy to get cocky. You know, when you start making a lot of money, when you have a rally like we did in April and May, it's very easy to think that you know better than the market, that you're, you know, maybe a little bit better than you truly are because you've got these gains proving your worth.

41:20Alissa Coram:At the same time, just because you're having a rough time doesn't mean that you're worth less. You know, it's, again, very market component, specifically related to the market components. So that means that you have to, again, make sure that you're going with the market. Make sure that you have rules. Take the weekend to really be very clear headed on what your strategy is. if there are stocks that you feel like you have taken a larger drawdown than you want. If you've looked at your portfolio and your portfolio is taking a larger drawdown than what you want, this is where rating your stocks becomes very important.

42:00Alissa Coram:Know which ones you wanna throw overboard first. Know which ones that you are maybe a little bit late on getting out of and plan your exit. Even if you didn't kind of follow your initial exit strategy, come up with your plan B, come up with your plan C because things, while a lot of upside reversals were happening today, there's a lot of trap doors still in this market. And so just make sure that you're really focused on the protection side of your portfolio because the more you let your portfolio go down, the more you have to have a big move just to get back to even. The numbers really start working against you on the downside.

42:43Alissa Coram:And if you can kind of chop off some of that volatility to the downside, it not only helps protect your capital, it also helps protect your mental capital. And that can be just as important.

42:54Justin Nielsen:Absolutely. And I think another aspect to think about is with earnings season, sort of this mental aspect too, is don't hold on to the hope of a potential positive earnings reaction to keep you in a stock if it's not working. I think that that can be a very dangerous strategy. And even if it does happen to work out, it's a very bad habit because you could really, really blow up your portfolio that way if you're You're not just following the sell rules, you know, headed into earnings to have have those rules, whether or not you are bullish on the next earnings report, because you can always buy it back if it sets up.

43:44But I think that's something that this earnings season, especially with a lot of the AI stocks and the big tech names to be very careful about, because a lot of them do look really vulnerable.

43:55Justin Nielsen:And so I could see the temptation. Hey, I've been there. Right. Hey, what if this gaps up on earnings? And then I'll feel really stupid for selling it. I think I said on IUBD Live once that I'd rather feel stupid for managing risk than feel stupid for not managing risk.

44:16Alissa Coram:I'm absolutely with you. And it reminds me, a great book that, you know, doesn't necessarily, isn't necessarily about stock market trading, but has a lot of applicable lessons, is Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets, where, you know, she talks about the process versus the outcome. You know, there's a lot of times you can do something really stupid and still have a good outcome and think, oh, that was a good process when it wasn't. The odds were not in your favor. You did something stupid and you got away with it. And to your point, it's almost worse because it creates a bad habit and reinforces something.

44:55Alissa Coram:You know, you really have to think of your process. And again, that's why the weekends are so nice, because you can really kind of focus, hey, am I having a good process? And look, sometimes they won't work. This is not, nothing's guaranteed in the market. We are just trying to get the odds more in our favor. And if you can do that, especially over time, that's why poker players like Annie Duke keep on getting to the final tables because, yes, there are different outcomes that come with the turn of the cards, but they've got a process that keeps on getting them success and gets them to those final tables on a regular basis.

45:30Alissa Coram:So think of your career as a stock trader, not just the single rally that you're involved in right now.

45:38Justin Nielsen:Yeah, such a great way of putting things. And I know a lot of growth traders out there who have really been able to ride this AI wave, especially since the most recent follow-through day in April. You know, now is the time to take a step back, look at those weekly charts. If you do have the big gains, you know, we looked at a lot of weekly charts on this episode. Are you seeing decisive breaks of key levels, whether it be price or moving average. And if you have a rule around that, then you need to follow it. It's not an all or nothing decision, right? Like we've been talking with Webby about, okay, if you do have a big gain, maybe you're using some moving averages, but you also can incorporate the relative strength moving averages.

46:21Justin Nielsen:And if you want to hold a final piece, if you still have good cost basis, big cushion, you can maybe give it a little bit of room, But ultimately, you still have to have a plan in place. And going back to what you were saying towards the beginning, sort of that scenario analysis, if then, if this happens, then I will get more bullish. If this happens, then I need to trim back even more.

46:46Alissa Coram:Yeah, you nailed it on the head there, Allie. That's exactly the process that you need to go through. And that's going to make you a better trader. And weekends, again, are a great time to do that. And I think that there's a lot of these lessons that we've been sharing on a regular basis on IBD Live. So definitely something, if you haven't checked that out. And the podcast. And the podcast. Yeah, Brian Shannon. I mean, you can't get better than that in terms of staying out of trouble. Yeah. You know, he showed how he uses short-term moving average lines on intraday charts. You know, how to translate that into a very accurate moving average line on an intraday chart.

47:24Alissa Coram:and how a lot of times just staying out of the stocks that are not above those short-term moving average lines keeps them out of a lot of trouble. And he has no problem, you know, because again, he's a top trader. He's an expert. He has no problem sitting on his hands because he knows that in the long run, that's gonna serve him better than trying to make something work that just has low odds.

47:50Justin Nielsen:Playing the odds, thinking in bets.

47:53Alissa Coram:We like it.

47:54Justin Nielsen:Okay. Well, thank you so much, Justin. It was so great capping off the week with you.

48:00Alissa Coram:Nice having a chat with you as well, Allie, always.

48:03Justin Nielsen:Thanks, Justin. And thanks everyone for tuning in. That's it from us for today. And we hope you have a great weekend. We'll see you Monday morning on IABD Live, investors.com slash IABD Live for all the details on that. And then we'll also see you right back here on Monday after the close. Have a great weekend.

48:52Alissa Coram:Transcription by CastingWords news and tools that you can use to help navigate the markets, consider becoming a subscriber to Wall Street Journal.

48:59Justin Nielsen:Visit subscribe.wsj.com slash take on the week to subscribe now. This show is for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing should be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Any securities and investment strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Make sure to consider consulting with your financial advisor before making investment decisions. Savvy investors understand consistent growth is built on scale, resilience, and trust. For more than 60 years, Medline has proven this, driven by an unrelenting commitment to their customers. Today, Medline is proudly NASDAQ listed and is the largest provider of medical surgical products and supply chain solutions serving all points of care.

49:42Justin Nielsen:With a focus on what healthcare needs next, Medline strives to make healthcare run better. See how Medline is woven throughout healthcare and learn more at medline.com.

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