Dow Hits High As Gold, AI Energy Skid. AngloGold Ashanti, GE, Embraer In Focus.

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0:41Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today. My name is Ken Shreve. Joining me today is Ed Carson, our esteemed news editor. We saw some profit-taking in growth stocks today. Dow outperformed, mixed and mostly unchanged performance for the S &P 500 and NASDAQ, but some selling underneath the surface. Ed, you still found three stocks to watch. Yeah, I want to take a look at Anglo Gold Ashante, which did not have a very good day, GE Aerospace, and Embraer. Very good. Yeah, gold stocks, quite a sell-off for gold stocks. We'll take a look at that. Let me pull up our chart here. It's like calm on the surface, but, you know, a little bit uneasy underneath.

1:28You know, I may have you run the charts if you don't. I didn't mean you uneasy. I meant the market uneasy underneath, you know, like some of the sectors. Yeah, it took a little while to come up here. But here's a look at the S &P 500. Well, we just got to size this a little better here. Appreciate your patience. Okay, Ed, well, why don't we start by taking a look at the S &P 500. up just a little bit, up one-tenth of 1%. We did have the NASDAQ composite down just a little bit. Again, ironic because there was quite a bit of selling in growth stocks underneath the surface, but NASDAQ holding up after that nice gain yesterday.

2:16And then take a look at the Dow, which actually outperformed today, extending gains after a nice move yesterday and then the Russell 2000 lagged a little bit today. Let's see where that ended up. Yeah, pretty, you know, nice move yesterday, closed off lows today. So overall, Ed, we're in a situation where the indexes look pretty good up near highs after that weak session a couple of Fridays ago. How are you feeling about the market here? Yeah, I mean, the indexes are right at highs. And I think investors should be prepared to get maybe get more aggressive if we hit decisively new highs. I mean, the Dow did hit a new high today, but really wanted to see the S &P and NASDAQ do it.

2:59But it does feel like underneath there was a lot of stocks that getting hit. And it does feel like stocks will make a move one day and then pull back. And so there were some names that flashed and buy signals and came back down today, not necessarily terribly, but it just makes it tricky. It feels more volatile, even though we've had a couple of positive sessions in the market. Today was flat in many ways. It still feels a lot of volatility. So, you know, I'm not doing a whole lot right now. I'm sort of holding what I have. I may have trimmed last week among certain volatility. And I think that, you know, you don't necessarily need to sell things unless individual stocks are under pressure.

3:36But it may not be a great time to be adding a lot. And if you do add, I mean, just maybe take smaller positions and just be ready to cut them very quickly if they don't work out. Because some things are going to work, but it's just not like a rip-roaring market like we've had in much of the last several months. Well, we're still kind of waiting to see if the market is going to resolve this bad day of price action right here on a Friday. But it did come down and hold the 50-day moving average. And I would say that even looking at the NASDAQ composite after that 1 % or gain of more than 1 % yesterday, to see it hold tight here and really not give up any ground at all is pretty bullish.

4:25So like you said, if indexes start to move into new high ground again, that might be the market's cue to maybe start putting money to work here. I just add that there's tons of news that's coming up. I mean, we have probably U.S.-China trade talks late this week. You know, we have the CPI on Friday, though, that probably won't make too much of a move. We'll have the Fed next week. But we have just massive earnings next week. Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon, and a lot of interest about how AI and there's some unease about AI. So anyway, just a lot to go on in addition to just how the market is acting.

5:01Again, market's acting fine. We're at record highs. It's just about talking about what you do in the very short. Here's a look at the equal weighted S &P 500 ETF. Actually, you know, did better than the S &P today, up a half a percent. The equal weighted NASDAQ 100 QQEW. That looks like an all-time, could be an all-time closing high for QQEW. And then we mentioned bond yields still just kind of floating near that 4 % level. Now underneath at 3.96 looks like where we're at. But we're still looking at two more rate cuts. It looks like two more quarter point cuts by the Fed before the end of the year.

5:46Is that correct? Yeah, that seems to be what everybody's expecting right now. pretty locked in for next week. It would really take something shocking to not have that happen. Yeah. And that Fed meeting, like you said, next week, Tuesday and Wednesday. Mentioned growth stocks under pressure today. Again, not much movement in the NASDAQ and the S &P 500, but Innovator, IBD 50. You can see things are getting volatile up near the top here. Just something to keep in mind. testing the 21-day line, but down 2.7%. So if you're a growth investor and you've had some big winners this year, probably not a bad idea to be taking some profits.

6:30It really just depends on the stocks that you own. Some people may still be heavily invested if they have stocks that are acting right. Others that maybe are succumbing to profit-taking, probably a time to at least think about trimming some of these positions. Wanted to take a look at ARKK. This is a Cathie Wood ETF, not down as much as FFTY today, down 1.5%, Ed, but still holding up near highs here. Yeah, and I think the difference is that FFTY honestly has a lot of gold stocks right now. And so those are probably the biggest losers in a while. There was growth stocks. There were definitely growth names, and some of those growth names had big losses, but gold stocks were a big factor for FFTY.

7:17why ARK is doing well. Tesla's its biggest position. Yeah, it was down a little bit today, but that's doing well. A lot of other things are doing fine, but there are definitely some speculative names that are not. I think ARK just happens to have sidestepped those at least today. So there's that. Yeah, we got Tesla reporting earnings tomorrow after the close, still fighting a good fight up near highs here. Also want to take a look. We mentioned the sell-off in gold today. I'm not really sure what news was fueling the selling. I don't know. It's a news seemed to be hard to come by, but here's a look at GLD, which was down 6 % through the 10-day moving average, now looks poised for a possible test of the 21-day line.

8:05In our database, Ed, a lot of leading gold stocks saw many of them down 8%, 9%, 10%, even more. I saw the dollar maybe strengthen a little bit today, but was there any specific news that was, or just profit-taking hitting this group? I feel like it's more profit-taking. I mean, there's some people saying, oh, China tensions are easing. It's like, well, we just haven't heard anything bad for a couple of days. We got the China trade talks on Friday or so. It's not like everything's happy. Yeah. I mean, look, not only have we had such a huge run and there hasn't been this strong run for the last couple of months, but the last couple of weeks, it's picked up even more.

8:39It's starting to go even more vertical. Just yesterday, we hit a record high. So it just feels like, I mean, and that's just a lot to ask for gold to be making that kind of run. So, you know, especially with others, the market at record highs. Yeah, some other spec of things are off. It's just, it is gold strength, given the market strength has been, has been odd. I mean, but it's definitely been real. So I don't know if this means the end or anything. It's just something that obviously this is one reason why we talk about never buying things that are really extended because you can have things like this i mean we're only down through the 10-day line it's not like it even got through the 21-day line uh i don't know where gold's going to go from here but yeah it may be just been profit taking after really hitting the accelerator the last few weeks yeah we uh we actually put gld uh into the leaderboard model portfolio when it was breaking out of this sideways consolidation over the 320 area, and it's been a nice winter, but we didn't feel the need.

9:38We trimmed it back last week a little bit, but didn't feel the need to exit completely and figured we'd just give it a chance. If it's going to come down and test that green line, the 21-day moving average, we will let it do that. So just holding a small position right now, and we'll see how that goes. You mentioned also the AI stocks saw some selling today, particularly some of these nuclear power firms. Let's take a look at NLR, which is the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF. Here's down for four straight sessions. Not completely broken, but gave up that 21-day line, which has been a support level in the past.

10:22And we saw it throughout. We saw it through the utilities. We saw it in uranium. And we saw it in the speculative startups. And we also saw it in other names, like we saw it in Coal Plays, which have become AI Plays, you know, like there's just this voracious need for energy. So it's, you know, we also saw GE Vernova, which reports tomorrow morning. That one's been pulling back in recent days. And you could argue some of the data center stocks have been falling. I mean, IRAN, CoreWeave. I mean, again, a lot of these names have gone on huge runs. I don't know. And with all those hyperscalers next week, maybe people are taking profits.

10:58Maybe they just need to take a break because they've gone on just massive runs. So I don't know what it means, but it does. I just think that there seems to be some nervousness. And this is like that whole AI adjacent plays and AI things. There are definitely some pressure in there. Again, it's hard to know how, you know, it's easy to spot the end after the fact. But because this could, you know, we get good news next week from the hyperscalers and all these surge 30 percent. But it's just something to note. Yeah, the nuclear is just part of that. There seems to be a lot of these things under the surface.

11:31And AI is just so important to not just the stock market, but the economy. So, yeah, really interesting what's going to happen the next week. If your organization isn't managing its data with EverPure, then it's likely scattered all over the place. My lord, for three days have I ridden to bring thee warning. The records thy great AI machine requires are strewn across five kingdoms. Yeah, the Everpure data management platform unifies data so you can always find it. No messenger needed. No more running around. Get out of the data dark ages with Everpure, a new era in data management. Nice earnings report from Raytheon in the Aerospace and Defense Group before the Open.

12:15That fueled a nice rally in a lot of aerospace and defense stocks. So it makes sense to take a look at the iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense ETF. Closed off highs, but still managed to gain of 1.8%. Yeah, and I assume GE Aerospace is in that too. And it may or may not be in it, but we're going to look at another name. So there were a lot of aerospace names. So you don't have to do everything, just everything, you know, in tech or gold. I mean, there are other areas that are doing well and people should be aware of that. Nice acceleration in earnings and sales for GE Aerospace. You can see earnings here up 44%, the top line up 20, 24%.

13:00So pretty strong numbers. It did close off highs. And then I think RTX, I always call it Raytheon, but RTX is the new company name. That slipped me when you said it. I didn't even notice it. Yeah. So RTX had a nice gap up on earnings and 7.5 % gain. Came off fives a little bit, but still a strong gain. All right. Well, we mentioned the selling in gold stocks. Let's start by taking a look at Anglo Gold Ashanti. outstanding fundamentals here. You can see just down at the bottom of the past four quarters of earnings and sales, very, very, very strong here. This one, you know, gap down, mentioned all these leading gold stocks down 8%, 9%, 10 % or more.

13:47Anglo Gold had a tough day, looks poised for a test of the 50-day moving average here. Yeah. And it's sort of a question about how much do you believe in gold? How much exposure do you have? What's your general investing philosophy? it's like you know went through the 21 day line and really heavy volume and sort of question how much is it going to go now you might say well maybe it can go a lot more i mean maybe it just pauses for a little bit makes another run so you don't have to sell here i think if it broke through the 10 week line 50 day line i think that really would be something where you would have wanted to you certainly could have taken partial profits today you know i mean it's sort of a question about where do you think it's going to go i mean it's just that's that's hard but this was not unusual and this is also you know it's not can't be real shock given how much these have moved these are only giving up a few weeks of gains here and it's just been a tremendous run all year long so anybody who bought this if you bought this like at say 30 you know or somewhere in there you don't have to do anything if you don't want to i mean it's and so even if you bought more recently say one of these shorter consolidations around say 55 or what have you or 58 you don't have to, I mean, but it's just, you just sort of, when do you want to do it?

14:58You have to, you, eventually you have to book a game, you know, kind of thing. And it's just sort of there's, this is definitely where selling a winning stock is, is an art rather than a science. So, but I just think that it was notable. I mean, there was a lot of names coming down today. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I jumped the gun a little bit on GE Aerospace, but let's just go back and revisit at GE Aerospace, which was one of the better earnings reports this morning, and talked about the nice gain for the stock. Hit an all-time high, gave back some gains, but there was some pretty good news in this earnings report.

15:35I think I saw they gave pretty bullish revenue guidance for the rest of the year. Any more details on earnings here? Yeah, it was definitely a beat and raise report. It was strength in commercial, strength in defense. You know, obviously people were probably anticipating that. You can look around and see how things are going. There's sort of strong defense spending. Jets are – there's a lot of demand for new jets. So it may not have shocked people to see this. If you look intraday, I mean, so it did close poorly, at least in its range. But on the other hand, it didn't do as badly. If you look on a five-minute chart on this one, it's not as bad if you – it really had that first minute or two, first five minutes.

16:12But after that, it sort of settled down. And, yes, it would have been nice if this closed, you know, at 3.08, you know, 3.11. but it's not the worst. And I think also if you go in the perspective of a weekly chart, it still had a decent gain here. So it got above recent highs, which offered a buy point. It would have been disappointing. This is why we talk about waiting 5, 10 minutes, 15 minutes, half an hour before it coming in. And so it closed just below the 307 area if you bought it, because it got above most of this short consolidation. You sort of could have bought that. It's definitely one to be watching.

16:48It's gone on a great run. It's pausing. It hasn't been. It's not like crazy extended. It's been finding support at the 21-day line. So it's definitely something that could be actionable again. I think I'd like to see a little more strength. Maybe not get to yesterday's highs, but maybe at least get about, say, 308, 309. But yeah, I mean, it's a real leader. You always have to be cognizant, too, of stocks that have rallied quite a bit headed into earnings. You mentioned next week earnings is going to get very, very busy. a lot of your Magnificent Seven reporting. But always look at where your stock is.

17:22Has it rallied a lot headed into earnings? You know, that sometimes presents a sell the news scenario. So earnings season can be tricky. There are plenty of people that like to trim back positions headed into a report, especially if it's an aggressive growth stock. But pretty good start to earnings season so far. Let's conclude by taking a look at another stock in the aerospace and defense group that actually found its way into the leaderboard model portfolio today, Embraer. This is a Brazilian aircraft maker. This is a nice-looking breakout. Yeah, and I like how it looked. It had that ugly cup with handle in that before.

18:06That cup with handle formed because of Trump tariffs. You can't, you know, that happened. And then suddenly it's like, well, maybe it won't affect Embraer so much. I mean, everything about that was just like, what, what, what? And that's something, you know, the danger of the news. But it tried to break out fizzle, but it held support. It didn't really break down. It found support around the 50-day line and it formed a flat base, you know. And so you can sort of more treat it as everything since June is sort of pausing, you know, that whole area, just sort of forgetting about it. Sort of like a lost weekend, that whole area.

18:35But I like it. It tightened up. And so the RS line is, if it didn't hit high, it came very close. Strong volume today. Looks like it did, yeah. Yeah. They announced a record backlog, I guess, overnight or this morning. So just real strength there. It's also, I mean, another thing is that EWZ, you know, Brazil ETF, I don't know how that did today, but that's picked up a little bit. You know, there was some weakness, and we're seeing some strength in some Brazilian. So, yeah, this came down a little bit, but you can see that there's been a rebound over the past week and a half. So, again, that's something that's just another positive.

19:09Embraer probably cares more about the international markets than a lot of Brazil stocks. So I don't know, but it's still nice to see that movement. Solid growth from Embraer. You know, a lot to like about it. There's, you know, Boeing has it. Still trying to wait for it to turn a profit after like five or six years. But Embraer, you know, solid performance. There was a weird loss. I don't understand how that all works, but next year is supposed to be very strong. So, yeah, nice, nice pickup for leaderboard. Yeah, it looks like the last two quarters of earnings, almost one-offs here, might have been some extraordinary one-time items.

19:45But the group overall continues to be very, very strong. Even Howmet Aerospace is a big Boeing supplier. This one moved nicely today, up 2.4%, trying to re-break out, looking at that 198.48 recent high, getting pretty close to that. OK, let's let's take a take a look at a big earnings report after the close. Netflix, which had been trading, trading pretty well ahead of earnings, reclaimed its 50 day moving average. It's under some under some pressure here. I don't know if we have any details yet. Anything anything you see yet? Yeah, I mean, they missed on earnings. It looked like by a fair amount.

20:29I don't know what the reasoning is. And I haven't looked elsewhere. I didn't have a chance to look at it elsewhere. But yeah, this was right on the cusp of a buy area, short-term buy points, perhaps, you know, within the base. We'll see. But this one makes big moves on earnings. And, you know, it doesn't always go to the upside. It's not always a happy ending. So we'll see there. Capital One, I think, is interesting. That one is doing, showing some positive reaction. It sort of sold off in recent weeks. I think concerns about lending. And it had a big sell-off last Thursday when the regional banks came under pressure.

21:04But now it looks like it's going to bounce back above the 50-day line. This doesn't have the greatest relative strength, you know, even longer term. But, you know, it looks like they're going to have, you know, they beat earnings by quite a bit, I think, is what happened here. So, you know, that'll be interesting to see how that does. There were a couple other big moves. Texas Instruments was really weak. So, I mean, it's not the most important chipmaker. It missed, and it certainly guided lower. And then I don't know what happened, but Intuitive Surgical, that one's coming back a little bit. That one is having a huge gain after hours on its earnings.

21:40This one's really sold off for a whole bunch of reasons, but that's going to gap up, you know, of the 200-day line all of a sudden. All of a sudden, you know, it might be. 18 % gain. That's pretty incredible for a company this size. That's moving. So that, I don't know what has changed, if some of the concerns about tariffs and other things are off, but those are some of the big movers after hours. Very good. All right. Well, that's a pretty extensive look at after hours activity here. And let me stop my share and Ed comes back on. Ed, thanks very much for your insight. We always appreciate it.

22:18All right. That'll do it for today, folks. We appreciate you watching. Yeah, very tricky market right now. We've got indexes back up near all-time highs, but growth stocks under a little bit of profit taking here. So still some names out there acting well, but I think the big picture column in recent days, a little more defensive tone and seeing a lot of wild speculation in the market. Some of these speculative stocks going from 20 to 100 in a very short amount of time. So, you know, seeing some some some froth out there that is possibly a warning sign, but always have to look at the market. And indexes have come back nicely and they're flirting with all time highs again.

23:02So have to have to respect that price action. So Ed and I will be back here tomorrow for another stock market today video. That'll do it for today. Have a great afternoon.

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