Fed’s Behind Us, Power Trend Is Back On. Robinhood, Oracle, Broadcom In Focus.

27:58Microsoft looking better. Nvidia back above its 50-day moving average line. But your thoughts on XLK, the tech space, really kind of leading things. Yeah, I'm impressed and surprised, frankly. And go back to the Microsoft, because this is what you want to see. With Microsoft on the earnings that it had, it had that downside reversal. And then it's just base building. You want stocks to base build. You don't want stocks to go up in a straight line because that's where you get bubbles. You need the corrective phase. And what I really love about it is that bottom day, the 492.37, that looked terrible that day.

28:38And if you were just studying that, that what would have been normal and natural would have been really a trip down to the 200 day. But it didn't. And that just is a sign of the health of the market. Now, to tell you that, you know, if it's going to act normal and natural, it should stay above this week's low going forward and just continue to round out the right side. And let's go to the NVIDIA that you mentioned. Again, with this one, lots of news flow on there. But it's just base building. And that's what you want to see is a nice little tight flat base. What's the depth on that? Only 11%. That's really good because it's telling you that it's at an equilibrium and people are putting all the pieces together of all the news flow that's going on and the unknowns and are still happy with it there.

29:29So I'm not in NVIDIA. I don't really want to buy it. But if it breaks out, I'll buy it, give it a shot. I'd rather trade some of the other chips. But this is good for the overall market, in my opinion. Yeah, absolutely. And one of the reasons, yeah, I thought it was just me. I thought Mike was yelling at me, but if he can turn down the volume a little bit. So we do have NVIDIA kind of trending below its moving average line for its relative strength. So that is an issue there. And I just also, I went back to Microsoft real quick because as ugly as this looks, I mean, it is only an 11 % deep base there.

30:08So when you kind of take a look at the weekly, it really isn't that deep on Microsoft either. So worth noting there. So that's XLK. And some of the areas that were really outperforming today, GLD and GDX. So the gold and the gold miners. Gold miners up 5.2%. Um, usually with a strong market and all these growth names doing so well, you usually don't think of gold and gold miners as being like, uh, accompanying them and their moves. Uh, what gives here, Mike? Yeah, I do. Is it my point better? Much better. Yes. Um, uh, so I do have a position in GDX. I, I had, um, I had been trading this space a little bit, but not heavy enough on that move up.

30:59And then when it started coming in, I was like, okay, it would be normal and natural for it to come all the way into the 21 day and then I'll pick it up there. But yesterday with the upside reversal, it's like, you know, not a perfect upside reversal because I would have rather it come in closer to the 21 day, but I gave it a shot there. If you would have told me that this was going to be up 5 % today, I would have said, you're crazy, man. That is just not normal. But you go through all of the ones in there and they look like they just want to move higher. And it's kind of a weird disconnect between what's going on in the crypto space versus gold.

31:34And it's like the old timers with the gold and the GDX and everything is that that's playing out better. So that's great. You just go with what's working. I was surprised, pleasantly surprised. But it's too extended to buy here. But it is very odd. I will say that. Yeah. So another another space that was doing well, I kind of skipped over this one, IGV and the software, you know, also doing very well. But the top top spot in terms of position in the IGV and we had added it to Swing Trader this week, too. Absolutely. And one of the top spots in in in the in the sectors, of course, was nuclear. So I'm missing this one myself because I actually wrote a column on it this week of how we handled this in Swing Trader.

32:24And so I wasn't allowed to buy this because it was something I was writing about. But man, what a move in the nuclear stocks. NLR is one way to play that, but we've seen a lot of movement in this area. Yeah, so I do have a position in this. We do have it on Swing Trader. I just want to say congrats to my father, who my parents watched the show and my dad called me the other day. And with, you know, he'd been buying this for the last month or so and was just talking about strategies of increasing his position. I kind of tried to talk him out of building it as big as quickly as he wanted to. So sorry, Dad, I was wrong about that.

33:03But just kudos to him. He's a great stock picker. Well, that's why he never listens to you, right? Oh, yeah, he listens to me, but he shouldn't have listened to me this time. But the space is, and go to Oclo. Yeah, I have some of that, not enough of it. But you and I were talking about this. This isn't even the biggest part of the NLR ETF. It's just that whole space is so hot right now that, and it looks like it's the beginning of something, not the end of something. But anyone who's playing this space, if a stock goes up 28 percent in a day, you've got to assume that it can go down 35 percent or more in a day.

33:45So you have to position size it, you know, accordingly. But it is the kind of the hot new area. Yeah. And look, another thing that's interesting about this market is, OK, yes, you have the nuclear stocks going nuclear, if you will. But there are a lot of these areas that are, you know, certainly more risk on. I'm just going to pull up some of the quantum computer. Here's Qubits. You've got what we affectionately call Rigatoni. That's been on a tear lately. So there are these IREN, Irene. I mean, that's just been going up. I mean, it's almost doubled in just a few weeks here. So, you know, you do have some really big moves happening in a lot of stocks and they are the higher ATR ones, right?

34:37So it is a little bit more risky in these names, but they've been paying off for many investors right now. But is that too much of a good thing, Mike? No, I don't think it is. It's very reminiscent of the 90s where you had a lot of, and I'm trading some of these too. I was trading this one and some of the other ones. not well because I'm not in them still. And I should be because they didn't break any of my rules. But sometimes when you're playing with fire and you're getting away with it, you just lock it in to move into something that is a better risk reward. But this area looks normal and natural for, and I'm just going to say it affectionately, junk.

35:22They are junk. There's nothing wrong with trading junk as long as you realize that that's what you're trading. In the 90s, there was a lot of junk. And as long as you're managing your risk, right? Exactly. You have to have your position size right, have your rules. But also remember, anything that goes up 10 % in a day can come down 15 % in a day. Keep that in the back of your mind and realize they don't always give you a chance through your stops. Many times they'll just gap down through them. So just be careful. If you're playing in this space, you're having fun, you're making a lot of money.

35:58That's great. But just remember when when the music stops, you know, you want to have a chair to sit in. So just there's nothing wrong with taking some profits. But don't do what I did and let them all go. Well, I mean, I have the Oclo and the NLR and stuff, but so much of the junk that I was trading, man, is just ripped beyond belief. But that's just a healthy risk on market. And at some point, that switch will flip and it'll be risk off and then those things will come in hard. But they're a lot longer than you think. Yeah, no, absolutely. Mississippi is breaking new ground for business at a historic pace.

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37:18And here we have this this one kind of diverging in a good way. Yeah, so we have it on Swing Trader, and I do have a position in it as well. And depending on how you look at this, this is either really extended or just breaking out. I'm looking at it both ways because the reality is not too long ago it was a$30 stock. Now it's$120 stock. So that's a big move in a short period of time, which is good and bad. It's showing a lot of power, but it's also a lot of risk in there. But let's go back to the daily. I'm looking at this as an ascending base. It's not a textbook one, but you've got three pullbacks.

37:57Each of the pullbacks is higher than the prior one, which is something you need for it to be an ascending base. It's a little on the short side for a traditional ascending base that Bill would prefer nine weeks, nine to 16 weeks. But in the study work that I did of ascending bases, this looks very similar. Meaning, in a typical ascending base, your first two pullbacks will be deeper and longer than the last pullback. And typically, the first two pullbacks are about the same percent, give or take. They have the same look and feel to them. Now, what was different about this one is the middle pullback was a little bit longer than normal.

38:43And that was, you know, with that break of the 50-day. But with the break of the 50-day, it was able to tell you that, okay, well, you know, there is some support in there. And I think there was support because people were assuming it was going to be getting added to the index and then it gets a pop on there. But now you have this last little pullback. And so really the pivot was yesterday out of the ascending base. So it's not that far out of there. but I wasn't, I like how it closed, but we were talking about on the show this morning on IBD Live how I wasn't happy that it wasn't taking out yesterday's high and that was really bothering me and I was on the fence of selling it, but I said, you know, let me just wait until the close and I'm glad that I did because, you know, it, this just looks like it wants to go higher, but it's a volatile one.

39:34So you've got to be careful and you've got to position size it accordingly. Let's also take a look at Oracle. This is another one that we've been playing off and on on Swing Trader. Really just phenomenal move on its last earnings report, up 36 percent when, again, you consider that this is, you know, almost a trillion dollars itself, you know, to have that kind of move in a single day is pretty impressive. But, you know, it's very hard to buy something, knowing that, you know, again, this is very normal and natural, as you like to say, Mike, for it to kind of come in, fill in part of the gap.

40:15And it really didn't even fill in that much of the gap. But this is kind of looking interesting here now as it's getting support around 300. So how how should someone take a look at this as potentially actionable? Yeah. So I do I do have a position in this and, you know, that I bought back today. We tried it on SwingTrader a few days ago and we we gave it as much room as we possibly could, took a bigger loss in it than we wanted to. But we knew that going into it that, you know, it had that potential because of the gap up. And many times with gap ups, when you try to get in them, they'll shake you out a few times before you really get that toehold that you need, you know, to pyramid into it.

41:04So this firms up some more on on Monday. I'll probably just have to sell it in my personal account and add it to Swing Trader because, you know, that that would as long as it's not too far out of there. because this is where it should turn and move up. Why do I say that? When you study gap ups that hold like this, what's happening is at first you get everyone rushing in to get it, the fund managers in there buying it. At the same time, you get the shorts in there who were short coming into it, trying to make the charts look as ugly as possible to try to break it down. And sometimes they're able to break it just technically.

41:44And then, you know, all the momentum folks and folks like us get out of it at the same time. And then the chart rolls down and it has to base build. So you never know for sure. And so you have to interpret what's going on on it. And today's action was great. Why was it great? Move back above 300, solid close above that. Close in the upper part of the range on a Friday. Held above yesterday's low. So the way we closed yesterday, it could have easily made a trip down to the 21 day and still been fine. But it didn't do that. And so now really the next level is that two or three days ago, that blue downside reversal area.

42:25If it goes through that, that's where you want to be adding to it. If you can trade, if you're comfortable trading gap ups, everyone shouldn't. If you're new to trading, don't trade this stock right now. Wait for a normal base. But if you've been around the block a while and you've studied gap ups, then, you know, this is pretty textbook looking. Doesn't mean it's going to be easy because it's textbook. But today's the day where you would have wanted to buy it. And then, like I said, adding to it through through that level, it shouldn't go back below. If you bought it today, you wouldn't want it to go below yesterday's low because then you don't know how much lower it's going to go.

43:03So that's where I'm putting my stop, you know, my ultimate final stop there. You can stop some out at today's low, but yesterday's low, if it breaks out, you don't know how much lower it's going to go. So just back out of it and get ready to, you know, buy back if it sets up. And I did adjust my volume. I promise you, folks, we do sound checks before we go live. But sometimes the platform has other ideas for us. It makes adjustments without us. I did not buy this myself. I ran out of time and money. But one of the things I think is so important is, you know, it's very tough. Time is more important than money.

43:44It's very tough on a day where you get that gap up to know exactly how far you could come in. But now we do have an area, you know, where we can cut our loss. And that's what's really critical. Again, it really comes down to risk management. It's fine to get into something that's not traditional as long as you can have a way to manage your risk in that regard. Let's also turn our attention here to Broadcom. This is AVGO. I do have a position here. Another big gap up here. Kind of started making some moves, pullback. Didn't even come down to the 21-day moving average line, and we have an upside reversal.

44:23Yeah, so I have a position in this, and we put it on Swing Trader today because of the upside reversal that it had. We'll be tight with this one because same thing with the Oracle. If it comes down underneath today's low, we'll probably just give it a little bit of time, but then exit it and be fine getting back into it. So it was a lot weaker than some of the other chips this week and lots of news going on in the space. But this is normal and natural action after a gap up of this pullback. Having an upside reversal on a Friday is something that I love because then you have a natural exit at today's low.

45:03Really, with upside reversals, I like a bigger spread if possible. It makes the chart look better. But from a risk management standpoint, having it smaller is easier because then you know that you're wrong sooner. So it's like, you know, it is what it is. But yeah, this this would have been very, very normal looking to come, you know, below that 21 day moving average line to a degree. Again, that would have been very, very normal and very natural. So, yeah. And even shaking out the low of the gap up day, because let's go back to Oracle for a second, because you always want to think of the other side of the trade.

45:42So if you were short this, what do you what are you thinking? Let's go to the weekly. You're thinking, oh, no, this thing is going to run up to$400 and I'm still short this stock. I need to break this stock. So you're looking at your ammo, which is the amount of money that you have. And I'm talking institutional level money, not, you know, individual and trying to break it. So how could you break it? Let's go back to the daily. you break it by taking out that low there on the lowest point that you have, that red day, two days after that, that's where you'd want to press this. So I would wait, if I was short, I would use all the ammo I possibly could to get it down there.

46:25Now, if you can't, then you're really stuck. So that's what, it's a battleground and that's what makes - You got to manage your risk as a short seller too, right? Yeah, that's why I don't really short much because that's a hard game, man, because the risk is endless. So anyways, same thing with the Broadcom. If we go back to that, if you were short that, you would be trying to push it down underneath the first days, the gap up low. And as you were saying, it'd be normal and natural to come down to the 21 day. And I would think even push it a little bit further to see if it can firm up there or not.

47:04So we'll see how it plays out next week. So before we get into your charts, Webby, I want to just revisit the precedent. I'm going to go ahead and pull up the NASDAQ here. We're going to go back in time to 1980 and we'll go to October 31st. How's this precedent working out? Frankly, it's working out perfectly. which really helped us to put on the gas at various times on Swing Trader and in our own accounts because we were using this as a roadmap. And if you want all the details on this, go back to prior SMTs where we go over this in more detail. But anyways, low holding above your 21 day for extended period of time, then your first break of your 21 day where it came down to 185.68, and then it bounced up into new highs.

47:59That's exactly what we did in the current market. Then a retest, but not undercutting your original low, so not undercutting the 185, but finding support in and around your 50-day, which is what we did. We didn't come down as bad as this. Let's, yeah, go out to the next date. So this is where we're at now. So, and this is why we had been gunning it with Swing Trader and pushing it, because we were using this precedent saying, this is where we think, you know, the market could go. And now we're there pretty much in percent as well as time. Let's go out to what is not good news. Go out to the next date.

48:40Yeah. So after that day, if you can point to that, to the 208.29, that's where we're at now. If this precedent holds, this is what we're looking for. Something like this, you know, a nasty test of the 50-day and maybe some sideways action. Well, on a Monday, even. On Monday. Where it starts. I know. So with that said, you know, I'm, I, I'm got this, you know, I've got like two eyes, one, one on the current charts, one on this, and just going, I want this to break. So how do we know if it's going to break? And that is if it doesn't fall next week, it doesn't break the 21 day. If If it breaks the 21 day next week, then I'm really dialed into this precedent.

49:29But if it doesn't, then it's breaking the precedent. And the important thing of using a precedent is when to throw that out. And that's when you would throw it out. So let's hope that we throw it out. You know, let's put that one in the trash for now. Right. Yeah. So, again, one of those where you don't necessarily want to be right. And I just put together a little Excel. Oh, I thought you were going to share. I'm sorry. Yeah, yeah. So I just put together this little Excel thing that we went over on IBD Live this morning where we put the 1231.1980 to 100 and August 20th, 2025 to 100. And this just kind of shows, again, we're right there at that peak.

50:10So if this precedent holds, we might we might have a little bit of trouble up ahead. But yeah, well, we're not going to anticipate too much. We're going to be prepared for it. But we don't want to say, oh, let's sell everything, put the canned goods into the bunker quite yet until we know that this precedent is showing evidence that it's got that downside potential as well. Let's go back real quick before I do my charts. Go back to your NASDAQ if you still have that old data because I'm going to tell people where to look for for clues. This is the wrong one. Yeah, go to the NASDAQ and go out to, just go to the end of December of 80.

50:51Okay.

50:58Okay, so focus in on the 208-29. That's where we're at right now. And you would know to take action because that Monday, that next bar, that red bar, you had definite distribution, you know, big spread closing at the lows. That's your first shot across the bow that you would want to start backing away. But really, you don't know until the day, that day there. Yes, exactly. When you bounce up, you come down to your 21-day, test it, move up, and now it's living in the lower hemisphere of that 50 % retracement from the 208, 29 down to the low two days later, and it can't move back up to new highs, that is your time to exit.

51:45And that is the day before it really breaks the 21 day. That's when you want to get very defensive. So if we see sell signals next week, any major distribution or whatever, we're going to be, at least with Swing Trader and my own account, I'm going to be backing away quickly, worried about this. But then if it firms up and goes back up, precedent's gone. And then you just use your normal instruments, which is what we're going to talk about now, my normal instruments. Which, thankfully, is showing a little bit of a different picture, right? Yeah. Much better picture. So here's our 50 % retracement.

52:24You can see that, right? I'm not 50, our regression. The regression channel. So here it is on SPY and the dates that we're using, sorry, May 12th for our starting point and then July 23rd for 50 trading days out. And this is just a line of best fit or regression, whatever you want to call it. And how I use this is when you test the bottom part, it should bounce back. It wants to live at the white line, which is your line of best fit or, you know, just the trend. And so it wants to live up there. But instead of doing that, it's just hugging this negative 0.75 standard deviation. That is weak. Now, the market feels super strong, but in this context, it's weak action.

53:13And so you just want to have that in the back of your mind that this should really be up here if it was healthy. Kind of like when you look back when it happened in June, you came down to your line and then bounced right up past your white line all the way up to your red dash line. That's normal and natural. This is weak action. Just call it the way I see it. Let's look at the NASDAQ. Same basic thing there, but a bit stronger. It looks like it wants to go up to your white line. So if it can get up here, which is really, let's call it, you know, a little bit above 23 ,000 in a short period of time, meaning next week, then it's very healthy in getting back to its normal, you know, line of best fit.

53:59I did add this to the IWM, which again, I have a position in. We're starting it at a different point. And this isn't quite 50 days yet. I think you told me it was like 35 days or something. 35 days, right. 35 days. Okay. Starting off on August 1st, going out to today, and we'll keep moving this out until we hit 50 days. And this is textbook. It's just hugging that, it's home base or the white line. And that's what you want to see. And it also helps you when you have bad days like today on a relative basis in it saying, is this abnormal or not? And it's not because it's just right on that white line.

54:39If it starts deviating from that in either way, then, you know, we will analyze that at the time. But right now. And why did you choose August 1st as your starting date? Okay, because when you're looking for places to use regression, you can use the lows. You can use the follow-through day. It's a big topic, and it's a bit of an art mixed with science. And so you want to see when there is a test and regaining a trend, because this is just a way of measuring a trend. And if you look at this from the bottom over here in April, up here, this was one trend that it had. And then on May 12th, it started a new trend that was kind of this time frame.

55:33But it wasn't trending nicely in a channel, so to speak. And a lot of times, just to remind folks, that recovery trend can be very steep and unsustainable. And so that's why we make adjustments, knowing that it's unsustainable that early on, especially with the V-shaped recovery. You know, just based on experience of looking at a lot of these regression channel lines, you know, OK, this is going to need an adjustment here down the road. Exactly. You know, and I accidentally skipped over our Bob Weir Take a Step Back, where we look at the weekly chart and a weekly candle. And Spy Weekly looks beautiful.

56:12The textbook looks like it wants to go higher. Absolutely no problems with that candle. And the composite, what's wrong with that candle? Which one? The current one? Yeah, the current one. Do you not like the wick on the bottom? them yeah i mean it looks it's perfect so sometimes you get a perfect candle and and so i look at each one of these charts that we go through to put a mosaic in my head of like what looks really good what looks really bad and so you know it's scary with the precedent that we're using from the 80s but then you look at this and the reality is that is a beautiful weekly candle And the one the week before, too, was not bad either.

57:00Exactly. And you can see that the body here is even bigger than last week. And so the body is the difference between where it opens for the week and where it closes for the week. And you want to see that building. And that's exactly what it did. So it's as strong as it gets, really. So now let's go to our 50 % retracement. And when you're at new highs, there's not a lot of things to retrace off of. So I was just using the September 2nd one just, you know, as some point in there. No matter how you slice this when you're at new highs, you're in the northern hemisphere. So we won't even look at the other ones there.

57:41Let's look at the levels. We'll start off with SPY. And you can't see the line up there, but the green line is up at the top. So our first area to be concerned with would be the low of this week, a little cautionary at 654 and change. Then our next area would be kind of either the low of the 2nd of September, my parents' 58th anniversary this year, on that day, or the August 20th low. They're very similar. And on top of that, it's underneath the 50-day, which is your blue day. So if we were to come down in there, we're looking at an intermediate correction, frankly. Now, a much deeper intermediate correction would be if we retrace all of that going all the way back to the August 1st low of 619.29.

58:33If we come in there, you really have to be super defensive because that's way underneath your 21-day and your 50-day. And, you know, that's, you know, really bad action. And of course, you always have to have your final line in the sand. I like to put those somewhere around my 200-day. Here's your 200-day here. So I went back and I found that the low from June 23rd or 20th, the 591 and change, that's where you got to throw in the towel, even from a position trading standpoint, in my opinion. Let's look at the composite. Here's the NASDAQ. Kind of the same levels, the low from the 17th. So the low from this week, the 22.058 is the first line.

59:21And then on this one, I put the high of this structure here. And I would normally have a bunch more lines on here, but I remove them for the show so it's not too busy. I try to keep the key ones in there. So when you're doing lines on your charts, you just want to see where are your normal areas of support. Or, you know, if it breaks it through, those could be moving averages, could be key days, sometimes at the top of a basing structure. And that's what this one is here, using the high from the 13th of August. And then, you know, again, the low from the 20th of August and then the low from the first.

1:00:00Those are your lines in the sand. And then if we come all the way down here underneath the 200-day, we've got real problems on our hands. I'm going to start doing this for the IWM since I think that's the new leader or has the potential to be the new leader. Our first line in the sand is right around this 21 day. And that would be the low here from the 16th. The next line in the sand would be well under, like if it comes all the way down to this level, the 223.69, which is your low from the 20th, then I'm just dead wrong on the small caps coming back. And we'll just throw those out as a potential new leader.

1:00:39Now we're going to do our standard simple chart, just looking at the 21-day moving average and just focusing in on the low versus that. So we strip everything away and we keep it very, very simple and just see, are there any problems here? No problems there. Let's look at the NASDAQ. and see if there's any issues there. No issues there, and no issues there with the IWM when you look at it that way. There is one other thing that I want to start adding to this, and this is something that folks can do at home is just putting a bunch of moving averages on your charts. This is something I normally don't share, but I look at, and I just have, I'm a big fan of Fibonacci numbers, so you can just look those up online and Google them.

1:01:29as a three, a five, an eight, a 13, a 21, a 34, and so on. And that's what all of these are. And all the way down to the, I think my biggest one is, yeah, 233 day moving average. And I just like to see, is each one above the prior one? And that's another sign of just the health of a trend. When a market starts rolling over one by one, you'll start seeing those moving averages start coming in, as it did here in late July. And where it stops gives you some info of how bad that was. And what's interesting, and this is something I don't talk about very often, but the 34-day moving average, these are all exponential, by the way, which is this tan one there, that one works really well.

1:02:20So it might be something that I'd start talking about more, and it worked really well in this market. And then the same thing. Is it going to replace the 21 day? No, no, no, no. Okay. But, but it is something to use in the toolbox that you want to have something between a 21 day and a 50. And that's your perfect level is your 34, in my, in my opinion. And IWM looks good there too, but you can see it hasn't trended as nicely as, let's just look at the composite. And well, this one had some issues in there too, some wiggles and wobbles, but they've been trending or stacked, as some folks like to say, in the proper order for some time.

1:03:05And let me go to our other charts. I'm trying to be fast because I know we were having some technical problems earlier that caused some slowness. Okay. Can you see? I can see you're Bob Marley. Oh, now here's the WebE RSI. Yeah. So the WebE RSI, this is the measurement of your 21 day, your low versus your 21 day expressed in ATRs, which is down here. And so we're just looking for any warning signs, no warning signs there. It's healthy. We would like it to build a little bit more, but there's nothing wrong with, looks like it's a little bit of like a 1.6 or so, 1.6 ATRs that your low is above the 21 day.

1:03:47That's healthy. And let's look at the NASDAQ. This one is getting a lot of power in there. And it's almost at this stage, it's a little worrisome to be hitting newer highs in where it was. I would have wanted this up around the two and a half earlier, say a week or two ago. It didn't happen that way. It took a little bit of time to build. It could just be the market needed to get through the Fed. But we'll see. That is a little bit of a warning sign in there when it starts poking up to the highest level after it's been trending a while. So we will see. We'll keep an eye on that. And then the IWM, it's building, and we would actually want to see this really just stay in this area.

1:04:40It's still a very healthy place to be. We will go over to the Bob Marley. And this is your off high indicator. And this is measuring the green area is within four ATRs of your high. Yellow is four to eight ATRs. And then the red area is anything worse than that. And you can just see that you're living up here near the top. The key levels would be anytime you have a trough in there, when you come down and hit a low, you want to see come up hold above that. Well, this one, you know, only being, you know, 1.5 ATRs off the high, it's hard to maintain that. So really it's more worried about these two that are about the same.

1:05:24You want to look and see what's the character of the market, where does it like to get support. And here it likes to get support around, let's call it two and a half ATRs off the high. Let's look at the NASDAQ. This one, a bit more volatile, and it tends to get support lately at just shy of four ATRs. So 3.7 there, 3.5 there, and a little bit better here of just over three. So let's take a look at the IWM. I was just going to ask. Yeah. And there it's, you know, just finally making it back. You know, this one has been a dog for a long time. So every dog has. And again, this kind of, to your point earlier, why this looks maybe a little fresher is because it is coming from these, you know, this kind of corrective phase.

1:06:16that it's been in. Exactly. So those were all the charts. Well, I think that wraps it up for us this week. So things to think about for our listeners, homework over the weekend or anything that folks should be thinking about in terms of how to prepare for either case, right? If the precedent plays out or if the precedent breaks, because we know that that is absolutely a possibility And as you said earlier, you're pretty eager to throw that precedent down if you can. I want that to be ancient history. The good thing is we have, you always do the mosaic. You put all the pieces together. There are only a couple, besides the precedent, there were only a couple issues in there with everything we saw, right?

1:07:04You had the Webby RSI getting a little bit hot on the NASDAQ. And that was really the only material issue that we saw. No deal breakers, right? Yeah, no deal breakers. So when everything looks good, danger might be at your door. We will see. But the song of the week is going to be come Monday because come Monday, I want to start throwing out that precedent. We will see how that reaction is. homework for the weekend. What I would do, if you're hardcore, I would play through the entire S &P 500. Just go on the web, find those symbols, dump them into market surge, and sort them by sector first. So what sector, broad sector, not industry group, use the broad sector, and just sort that by a secondary sort of the composite rating.

1:07:55And just play through those to get a feel for where the money is flowing. Now, if you don't have that type of time, which is fine, then what I would say is do a simple screen. $75 million volume above$10. So liquidity and price is your primary thing. Exclude any ETFs or close-in funds. That helps narrow things down. And then look at things that are, you know, at least 8 % above your 200-day. Those are good things that are, you know, have been working better, at least 3 % above your 50 day and above your 21 day. And just focus in on those. If that is too much merchandise for you, also put a composite in there and maybe do above 80.

1:08:44But a lot of the junk that we're seeing that is moving, you know, it's going to have low composites because they don't have any earnings primarily or they have weak earnings history. so I wouldn't use the composite there if you could help it but you can sort it by composite what about relying what about relying on maybe a relative strength sort instead um even a three month yeah you can do the you can do the three month or the composite and since I created both of those I don't have a I don't have a dog in that fight so that's fine um or you have all the dogs in that fight. So yes. Yeah, I would.

1:09:20I would actually do it by ATR, the 21 ATR in descending order, because then you're going to deal with all that the wild and crazy stuff first that you're observing. And as a general rule, when something has an ATR above eight, you probably don't want to play it unless you've been around the block a while and you understand the risk. The sweet spot is really like two and a half ATRs, so maybe three or four ATRs. When you get above that, you just want to pay attention that there's risk involved or increased risk. But take an ATR with a grain of salt. If its stock just had a big gap up on earnings, that is going to artificially inflate that ATR.

1:10:04We use a 21-day look-back period. So just, I mean, no number is perfect. No measurement is perfect, but just it helps. And that's how I like to sort those. So you're dealing with all the heat first and then kind of the middle of the road stuff, slow pokey stuff at the end. Well, that wraps it up for us this weekend. Thank you so much, Webby. And then IBD Live during the week, we'll be back here on Friday for another Stock Market Today video. And then don't forget, you can also join us on an advanced buying seminar that we're going to do tomorrow. This is a paid seminar that's going to be with myself, Charles Harris and Scott St.

1:10:43Clair. But don't worry, if you can't make it tomorrow, this is actually going to be archived. The idea is we want to put all of these advanced buying strategies that we often talk about in a lot of different places just in one place to consolidate it for everybody. So that's going to be tomorrow. You can go to investors.com to sign up for that or investors.com slash IBD live to take a trial of IBD live and join us in the morning hours as we go through charts live and see what's moving. So thanks so much for watching today and have a great weekend, everybody. Take care.

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