Friday The 13th Not So Spooky After All; SharkNinja, Brunswick And Costco In Focus

13 Feb 2026 · 1 h 25 min · 34 chapters

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In short

Podcast Summary: Stock Market Today With IBD

Episode Title

Friday The 13th Not So Spooky After All; SharkNinja, Brunswick And Costco In Focus

Episode Overview In this episode, Justin Nielsen and Mike Webster discuss the week's market actions, focusing on key stocks and the implications of upcoming holidays on trading. The podcast emphasizes market conditions reminiscent of the early 2000s, particularly in the tech sector.

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Key Highlights

General Market Sentiment

  • Market Conditions: The NASDAQ has been trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating weakness. There is a notable divergence between tech stocks and traditional stocks, akin to the late '90s scenarios leading to the tech bubble burst.
  • Historical Context: The discussion draws parallels to the market behavior from March 2000, when money began rotating from tech to traditional stocks due to mutual funds' inability to go to cash.
  • Market Commentary: The hosts express concern over potential selling pressures in mega-cap stocks, signalling a choppy trading environment.

Important Market Indices

  • NASDAQ: Struggles to regain upward momentum, consistently underperforming major moving averages.
  • S&P 500: Exhibits slightly better resilience compared to NASDAQ, but still shows signs of a potential downward trend.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): Displays stronger support levels, indicating some resilience amidst market volatility.

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Sector and Stock Analysis

Key Stock Focus

  1. SharkNinja
  2. Earnings Report: The stock shows potential for recovery after a history of poor performance. The hosts discuss their personal use of SharkNinja products as a foundation for investment belief.
  3. Technical Setup: The stock has formed a cup with handle pattern and is breaking out after earnings, suggesting a potential buy point.
  1. Brunswick
  2. Business Transformation: Transitioned from traditional bowling and billiards to marine products. The analysis highlights a turnaround story with a significant positive earnings report.
  3. Chart Analysis: Hosts note the stock's formation of a cup with handle, indicating a bullish trend and potential entry point.
  1. Costco
  2. Long-term Performance: The stock exhibits steady growth and resilience, with a recent breakout following a prolonged period below its moving averages.
  3. Market Position: Costco's stable business model and consistent product demand provide a favorable outlook despite market fluctuations.

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Market Strategy Insights

  • Investment Approach: The hosts recommend cautious trading, favoring stocks with clear technical setups and strong fundamentals. Emphasis is placed on maintaining small positions to manage risk in a volatile market.
  • Historical Learning: A suggestion to revisit past market patterns and bubble behaviors is made, encouraging listeners to understand the cyclical nature of markets.
  • Global Market Context: Discussion includes the importance of international markets, suggesting diversification into ETFs or ADRs to capture global opportunities.

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Closing Remarks

  • Upcoming Events: The episode wraps up with personal notes on upcoming holidays and the importance of reflection during these periods.
  • Audience Engagement: Listeners are encouraged to subscribe for further market insights and participate in the ongoing discussions.

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Key Takeaways

  • The market is experiencing choppy conditions reminiscent of past cycles; caution is advised.
  • Specific stocks like SharkNinja, Brunswick, and Costco show potential for growth despite broader market concerns.
  • Historical market analysis is crucial for understanding current conditions and making informed investment decisions.

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Recommendations

  • Review past market cycles for insights on trading strategies.
  • Consider both domestic and international stocks for a balanced portfolio.
  • Stay informed about earnings reports and key technical indicators for better entry and exit points.

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The podcast provides valuable insights for investors looking to navigate the complexities of the current market environment while emphasizing the importance of historical context in shaping investment strategies.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Introduction to Innovation

0:00 to 0:25

Explore the emergence of AI innovations in healthcare.

“This is a new era of American innovation.”

Market Overview and Personal Updates

1:13 to 2:07

Discuss the current state of the market alongside personal anecdotes.

“Oh, man, I'm just happy it's Friday, dude.”

Analyzing NASDAQ Trends

2:07 to 2:58

Examine the recent performance and challenges of the NASDAQ index.

“And, you know, despite our desire to kind of take out the NASDAQ from our database and just forget about this index, we still have to take a look at it.”

Market Comparisons to 2000

2:58 to 4:13

Compare current market conditions to the year 2000 and its implications.

“And so in March of 2000, when the Nasdaq topped and a lot of the tech stocks, you know, topped earlier than March, it wasn't like they all topped on the same day.”

Stock Performance and Market Dynamics

4:13 to 6:13

Delve into stock performance and the dynamics of mutual funds in the current market.

“And then, so they go in their base building stuff.”

Understanding Choppy Market Conditions

6:13 to 7:27

Discuss the challenges of navigating a volatile market environment.

“So blanket statement, I own everything that we're talking about.”

Identifying Key Market Indicators

7:27 to 8:39

Learn about key levels and indicators to watch in the stock market.

“So here we've got - And to be clear, you're not saying that we're at a 2000-like top right here.”

Analysis of Major Stocks and ETFs

8:39 to 11:18

Evaluate major stocks and ETFs to understand their market positioning.

“that you can find of what the tulips did.”

Final Thoughts on Market Strategies

11:18 to 14:01

Wrap up discussions with insights on market strategies moving forward.

“Like geeks like all of us look at this, but most people look at the S &P and maybe the NASDAQ.”

Market Trends and Index Analysis

14:01 to 16:46

Discussion on the performance of various market indices and their technical indicators.

“but that exit might not happen for a lot longer than we think.”
Show all 34 chapters

Mid-Caps and Utility Stocks

16:47 to 19:04

Analysis of mid-cap stocks and the recent performance of utility sectors.

“So it just is telling you that it's pretty much not, it's just anything else other than those mags.”

Global Market Insights

19:05 to 23:22

Exploring international market trends and investment opportunities outside the US.

“If you go through all of the utilities out there, they're all just been base building for years and years and years doing nothing.”

Sector Performance Review

23:23 to 27:26

An overview of weekly sector performance and notable trends.

“But I think it's easier to go with international ETFs than most international stocks.”

Investment Strategy and Risk Management

27:27 to 28:01

Strategies for managing investments and understanding market risks.

“And this is just, I know we all like to use IBIT, but when you, if you want a little bit more history using this one and let's do the best fit and go out a little bit.”

Market Character and Historical Context

28:01 to 30:05

Understanding market behavior and character through historical analysis.

“But the drawdowns on there, measure them on a percentage basis.”

Current Market Analysis: Key Indexes

30:06 to 33:19

A detailed look at current market performance and key stock indexes.

“It could easily get turned away there too.”

Sector Performance Highlights

33:20 to 35:44

Discussing the performance of various sectors and key stocks.

“So, you know, some stuff to look at there.”

Diving Into Specific Stocks: Insights

35:45 to 39:28

Analyzing specific stocks and their recent market activity.

“the XOP, which is the Oil and Gas Explorers and Producers, that was up 2.3%.”

Stock Discussion: Shark Ninja

41:13 to 42:00

Exploring the investment potential of Shark Ninja after earnings.

“I should have mentioned I do have, I think I have the position in use.”

Investing in What You Know

42:00 to 43:29

Learn about the importance of investing in familiar products and brands.

“It is, Bill was a big fan of Peter Lynch and it was really like invest in what you know.”

Understanding Stock Breaks and Penalty Boxes

43:30 to 46:46

Explore how stocks behave after breaking key price levels and the implications for investors.

“So when a stock does that, it really, and I've studied this in great detail, it goes in the penalty box for me for a long time, especially when it does it again.”

Evaluating Earnings and Estimates

46:47 to 48:28

Gain insights into how to assess earnings reports and analyst estimates for stocks.

“Now let's go to the actual numbers and let's go down to the quarterly numbers.”

Turnaround Stocks: A Case Study on Brunswick

48:29 to 51:09

Discover what constitutes a turnaround stock through the example of Brunswick.

“Let's go to the daily to see if there's anything else.”

Identifying Price and Fundamental Turnarounds

51:10 to 55:59

Learn the difference between price turnarounds and fundamental turnarounds, using real stock examples.

“So let's go and look at the difference there now that you've got this thing out of the way.”

Analyzing Costco's Stock Performance

56:00 to 58:00

Learn about Costco's stock performance, trading strategies, and market conditions.

“Costco, I actually chose this as my stock for my column this week.”

Historical Context and Trading Strategies

58:00 to 1:01:30

Discover historical trading examples and their relevance to current strategies.

“You know, I'm vegetarian, so I don't do the hot dog, but man, I can't have anything there anymore.”

Understanding Chart Trends and Stability

1:01:30 to 1:02:30

Gain insights on chart analysis and the importance of stability in stocks.

“Don't just parrot what other people have said.”

Chart Review and Market Outlook

1:02:30 to 1:10:00

Explore various stock charts and their implications for future market trends.

“This is what we're going to do is we're going to go through a bunch of charts here, and we're going to just look at each one in isolation and just say, okay, this is the only chart we're looking at.”

Market Strength Indicators and Trends

1:10:00 to 1:11:16

Learn about key indicators of market strength and trends using charts.

“I'm not sure if I did one on EQAL or not.”

Analyzing Key Levels in the Market

1:11:16 to 1:13:14

Discover how to identify and analyze key market levels and their implications.

“So above the middle or the 50 % retracement is 670 and change.”

Introduction to Moving Averages

1:13:14 to 1:15:25

Understand the importance of moving averages in market analysis and trends.

“important one would be the low from the fifth.”

Assessing NASDAQ and IWM Performance

1:15:25 to 1:17:25

Compare the performance of NASDAQ and IWM, analyzing strengths and weaknesses.

“point for every moving average that's above another one.”

Using Indicators for Market Timing

1:17:25 to 1:20:56

Learn how to use indicators for better market timing and decision-making.

“This is the first time you're seeing it.”

Song Recommendations and Market Sentiments

1:20:56 to 1:22:16

Explore how music can reflect market sentiments during discussions.

“what we can describe right now is certainly one of the things that we've noticed on your WebE RSI is just all of the bricks in the wall that are missing.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Justin Nielsen:This is a new era of American innovation. DriveHealth used Google AI to develop an AI-powered agentic nurse that provides real-time support to patients 24-7. Learn more at g.co slash American Innovation.

0:25Justin Nielsen:Hello and welcome to another episode of the Stock Market Today video. This is our Friday wrap up where we kind of take you through the week's action, get you ready for next week, hopefully, because we do have a holiday. And we'll talk a little bit about what happens when you have a holiday in the U.S., but nowhere else in the world. So that'll be one of our topics. Speaking of which, it's Friday the 13th today, February the 13th, 2026. Tomorrow we've got Valentine's Day. So hopefully today wasn't too spooky for you that you can get all romantic the next day. Then on Sunday, it's my granddaughter's six-month birthday.

1:04Justin Nielsen:We're going to do the half years for a little while here for her. So that's going to be awesome. And then President's Day on Monday. So it's a jam-packed weekend. And to help us through it, it's Mike Webster, our senior market strategist, joining us as he typically does on a Friday. How are you doing, Mike?

1:20Mike Webster:Oh, man, I'm just happy it's Friday, dude. We needed the long weekend, right?

1:26Justin Nielsen:Yeah. Yeah. And for those that are on my daughter, Stella Watch, you know, she's in Prague right now. We actually FaceTimed this morning. Well, afternoon, nighttime for her. And, oh, man, sometimes she sends me the view from her Airbnbs that she's staying out with a group of girls. And it's like, wow, the life she's living. So one day.

1:48Mike Webster:We both lived through her. Yes, exactly.

1:50Justin Nielsen:From University of Hawaii to, you know, to, well, right now she's in Prague. So that's, again, last week.

1:59Mike Webster:You know, related to Justin.

2:03Justin Nielsen:Gosh, if only I were more related. So, Mike, let's get right into it. I'm going to share my screen. And, you know, despite our desire to kind of take out the NASDAQ from our database and just forget about this index, we still have to take a look at it. And here's what it looked like today. I mean, look, it's been trading below that 50-day moving average line. It did try and get up, got turned away right at the 21-day moving average line, couldn't even get to the 50-day line. And here we are undercutting. We had mentioned in our last SMT how we really didn't like this undercut of the marked low, what we call the marked low here.

2:44Justin Nielsen:We did undercut it, and we're right back down there.

2:47Mike Webster:look this is feeling more and more like the um the 2000 time frame and i want to be very clear because whenever i bring that up someone would think okay he's talking about a bear market i'm not talking about a bear market it's just the one time that i always remember that the divergence was so wide between like nasdaq tech stocks what you see in the you know the queues or the nasdaq composite and the rest of the, you know, kind of old school stocks. And so in March of 2000, when the Nasdaq topped and a lot of the tech stocks, you know, topped earlier than March, it wasn't like they all topped on the same day.

3:25Mike Webster:But, you know, you had the Qualcomm, you know, earlier right at the turn of the calendar. And then you had some other things in 99 that topped. but in March when everything started rolling over money is and I really think it's just a and this wasn't my idea this was Bill's idea and he told me in real time at the time that they were hiding in the Dow and in the S &P because mutual funds can't go to cash and that is a big important part of the game that is so different than it was many many decades ago when yes you had mutual funds, but it wasn't to the extent that you have them now where, you know, there's so much money in there that they couldn't go out to cash.

4:09Mike Webster:So they had to just rotate. And that's why I think we're seeing this constant rotation as they just let some of these big mega caps go, or at least reduce their exposure to them. And then, so they go in their base building stuff. And then you've got like what's going on here so you went back to 2000 for uh the here's the s &p and you could see that that in in march you know ran ran up and hit a top you know basically just a little bit later than what the nasdaq did because the nasdaq top was like the 10th and the 14th go to the nasdaq

4:47Justin Nielsen:top yeah so it was it was the the 10th was the ultimate top at you know 51 32 um it did try and get to highs here on the 24th, that's when the S &P 500 topped was that second try.

5:01Mike Webster:And that was kind of the start of the divergence, right? Because you had this hitting a lower high, lower marked high, as we talked about last time. And then let's switch over to the S &P. And then even though that topped, it was just going down a lot less than what the NASDAQ was because you did have money coming out of the market. But and go to like September or October.

5:27Justin Nielsen:Yeah, going out a little bit. And so, yeah, for those that may not remember, we did actually have kind of this rally that started with a follow through day at the end of May. I think it was May 31st in 2000. And you had, you know, Corning, Sun Microsystems, JDS Uniface, a lot of fiber optic plays. and keep the instruments, SDLI. Those are some that I remember.

5:51Mike Webster:Yeah, that's a blast from the past. Pull up Corning for a second because this is the one that Bill was all over during that time.

5:59Justin Nielsen:Even though we're talking about Corning in 2000 and I did have a position back then, I do have a position in Corning now. So I suppose I still have to disclose it even though we're not talking about the same time period.

6:11Mike Webster:And I shut my broker account down and I've got a ton of positions. So blanket statement, I own everything that we're talking about. Even if the thing went out of business 50 years ago, I own STLI too. That's not even traded. So with this, that was a beautiful move in there. And even though the market had topped, Bill was still playing in a big way in this corning position. So it just feels so much like that right now that there are things to do. It's a major chop city. Like you're just getting chopped up left and right because things will break out, go up just enough to suck you in. Then they'll come down just enough to get you out of it and then just go back and go like, oh, I was just kidding.

7:01Mike Webster:Like I'm going back up. So we're seeing that. And you can't not get yourself stopped out because then you could be in one of these that just keeps rolling over and over and then you get a big, big loss on your hands. So it's just a very hard environment, just like it was back during that time frame. And I would suggest people go back and study history. And there's other cases of it, but that's just the one that is the most obvious and the one that I always remember. So here we've got -

7:30Justin Nielsen:And to be clear, you're not saying that we're at a 2000-like top right here.

7:34Mike Webster:Not even, like, no. And I've said before, we're in an AI bubble, but we could be an AI bubble just like the years. Like, yeah, just like the NASDAQ was in a bubble in the 90s. But it could we could be in like 1992, like we were talking about the other day, we could be really early, we could be a decade or so before the the ultimate top, but all bubbles work themselves out. And you want to play in bubbles, like you wouldn't say like, even going now, back to the 20s, like from 1924 to 1929 during that time frame, if you're like, oh yeah, that's a bubble. Yeah, of course it was a bubble, but you still trade it.

8:16Mike Webster:You let the charts get you out. And that's why we're always looking at things of where to get out. So with that said -

8:22Justin Nielsen:And in another life, I'm sure Mike was trading tulip bulbs back in the 1600s.

8:26Mike Webster:Yeah, I would have been trading tulip bulbs and some other things remind me of tulips, but we won't go there. If anyone's curious on tulips, go look it up. And there's charts online that you can find of what the tulips did. And they look just like some other things out there. But with looking at this, this is in a choppy, sloppy base still. And the culprit is the culprits are the MAG7 stocks. So let's pull up. Yeah.

8:55Justin Nielsen:Tim called them the LAG7. And that's exactly what's happening. You know, usually we do pull up FNGS, but, you know, Ed reminded me that, you know, one of the things that FNGS has in it is snow, which was up over 5 % today. So that kind of masked a little bit of, again, just how bad FNGS is. But yeah, MAGS is another way to look at it, a magnificent seven. You know, we're at the 200-day moving average line here. And just one other thing I want to address in the comments, because, you know, folks, I'm not leaving, but this might be my last SMT with Mike because Allie's coming back. So that's another thing we have to look forward to.

9:36Justin Nielsen:So I'm going to be, you know, giving up my temporary position back to its rightful owner with, with Allie Corum returning from her maternity leave. I'm not sure if she's going to do it next Friday or not. We might give her a little bit of time to get the training wheels off.

9:54Mike Webster:She'll be fine, But I'm always happy to do these with you and with her. Maybe one time we do, all three of us do one. That would be a lot of fun.

10:03Justin Nielsen:Yeah, well, I wouldn't wish that on Allie trying to corral both of us. That's just a little bit too much. She'll run back to the home screaming and saying, why did I come back? Yeah, exactly.

10:16Mike Webster:So with this, this thing could break open, right? Because you're at this point. Like if you were just looking at this and not realizing what was in it, let's go to the weekly, just get a little perspective. Doesn't mean that it will, but when something comes down to a 200 day or in this case, a 40 week line, that's where they really break wide open. Look what it did the last time that it came down to that line that broke wide open. Now, the time before, can you point to that in the in the bear market? Point to which one? when it broke through the 40-week line the first time? Oh, yeah. Over there?

10:55Yeah.

10:56Mike Webster:So that's kind of what you expect. You hope that it doesn't happen. You hope it does what it did the time before that, the touch, the 40-week line. Can you point to that for folks to see in 24? So it's really one way or another is how these end up resolving themselves around key levels. Now, the good thing is no one really looks at this. Like geeks like all of us look at this, but most people look at the S &P and maybe the NASDAQ. But the S &P, the Dow, and the NASDAQ are the key ones, not these kind of just random ETFs out there. But it does tell you that there could be a lot more selling in these mega caps than we think can happen.

11:43Mike Webster:And this is the key level. Now let's go to the queues because it's kind of a, then you've got a mixture. Do you want to stay on the weekly here? Yeah, let's go to the daily. Okay. Thanks. So with this, it's very similar to what is going on with the NASDAQ composite, obviously, because this is a subset of this, the top 100, non-financial and all. This is holding up a little bit better. And so what we're going to do is focus. Well, you know what? That's going to take us down a road. we don't have time for it so let's look at this look at that that rs line underneath its moving averages now let's go over to spy for a second and just just for just for fun i mean let's let's

12:27Justin Nielsen:bring up the equal weighted sure um a very different look uh you know still on the weaker side but definitely stronger than than the cues themselves uh now over to spy and man that that

12:41Mike Webster:The RS line is just flat all the time. And one day it's going to get moving. Yeah. Because that's a relative to itself. So everyone knows. Yeah.

12:51Justin Nielsen:With the relative strength line is different from the relative strength rating. The relative strength line is in relation to the S &P 500. So, of course, SPY is the S &P 500. So it should be flat. Yeah.

13:03Mike Webster:Yes. So with this one, what's nice about it is that you did. You know what? Can we zoom in a little bit or something just so I can see those bars a little better? Okay. Yeah, that's one way to do it. So we were able to hold up over our low from a week ago, which is not a marked low yet. It will be in time unless we take it out. But that one there, once there's nine days past that, that'll be a marked low. and if we hold up above this, that is a good test. It was a nice sign today that we at least closed flat on the day, mid-range after shaking out because, again, we were in a vulnerable position that we could have fallen apart.

13:52Mike Webster:You always got to remember that you can always fall apart. You don't want to think that they always come back just because you're in a bull market that they always do. Got to be prepared for an exit, but that exit might not happen for a lot longer than we think. now that we've got this that's just kind of junk let's switch over to iwm which i i do have a position in as do i and this held up so much better than those because look at that red line that your red line is your 50 day and it came down tested it last week just enough to mess with all of us um and that was a deciding time too because when you close right at at a 50 day you have to expect at the lows there at a fresh low over several weeks your expectation is for it to go lower you hope that what ended up happening happened but you've got to play the odds and the odds are then you're going to at least gap down and then have an upside reversal if it's

14:51Justin Nielsen:going to go higher but in this case you guys mentioned thursday was no no picnic either uh yesterday's action on the russell 2000 another break of the 21 day moving average line it was down the most yesterday. So again, not a fun time.

15:08Mike Webster:No, no, no, not for those of us trading it. And we didn't make it all back today. Yes, it was good that it was up 1.3%, but we still have a long way to go to get to yesterday's high, or not a long way to go, but short time to get there. So with this one, what's nice about it is it held up over that low, and it held up over the 50-day. I don't like that it just sliced through the 21 day like it was butter. That's problematic because you want to find a moving average that an index or a stock holds. And the 21 day happens to be my favorite one to use because I've studied it and it works really well in general.

Read the full transcript

15:50Mike Webster:But sometimes you find stocks that don't care about it. And this one doesn't care about it. It slices right through it like it's not there. What it does care about is the 50 day. So then it means you pay less attention to the 21-day on a stock or an instrument that ends up ignoring it. And it would be the same thing. Like some of them follow a 10-day or an 8-day exponential, which are very similar for a while. And then some of them just blow past it. And so then you don't use it on that. But this is good. It held up above that low. So in a very short period of time, we had a higher high or a higher lows, not a higher high because we never took out the 271.60.

16:30Mike Webster:So that's the next thing we need to do. But this is kind of forming, if you look at it, a little base on top of a base. So that's a healthy structure, especially given the context of everything that we had with, you know, we're seeing with the mags as well as the cues. Now let's look at MDY because there's a little bit in between. so these are the mid caps and what we were just looking at were the were 2000 and small caps this is the mid cap so in between and we have that one even looks better frankly you know it didn't go through its 21 day yesterday got support there today it wasn't up as much as IWM but it it looked better yesterday so this is and I'm playing this as well and we've got it on swing trader and this looks super healthy.

17:17Mike Webster:So it just is telling you that it's pretty much not, it's just anything else other than those mags. Now let's go to the EQAL, which we're playing on Swing Trader as well. And I do have a position in it. And this is the 1000 largest, the EQAL. I'm just not seeing it. there we go thanks so this looks even better so this is 1000 stocks equally weighted in your your largest cap ones this is what a bull market looks like like a healthy steady bull market but that's not what our our stocks have been feeling like but it's probably because we're still playing in a pile of of things that just a lot of them are under distribution or if they're not under distribution, some other stocks in their group or sector are under distribution and, you know, wiggling them around a lot.

18:13Mike Webster:So I'm now opening up my mind to trading things that I wouldn't have traded, you know, six months ago. And we're going to talk about a couple of them in a little bit. And if you do a lot of screening, you're going to see that the market is really rotating into a lot of things that just look completely different. Let's pull up XLU, because that was one that came on really strong this week. And this isn't like the XLU is really kind of real utilities, the UTES, and I have a position in XLU as well as UTES. This is more of your kind of AI related ones as well, where your XLU is your just hardcore electric water, your normal utilities that people hide in.

19:01Mike Webster:And let's go back to it. because it doesn't feel like they're hiding in it the way they typically hide in an XLP, which is kind of like a safety play. This actually looks like a real move. If you go through all of the utilities out there, they're all just been base building for years and years and years doing nothing. And it seems like a lot of money is flowing into them. I passed this up when I was taking out that 4382 and I've been regretting it ever since. And so I had to reach up and buy it way up here as, yeah, because now it was taking out that other marked high. Now, technically, it hasn't even broken out yet, but it feels very extended because this is such a slow-moving instrument, typically.

19:48Mike Webster:But 2.76 on an XLU, you got to wake up and say, something is going on here. Let me investigate. Now, could this be something just like we saw, We saw it with the banks and went up for a few days. Then they came back down. We saw it with that. Let's go to jets, you know, because the airlines were looking good and then they got hit. You know, that might just happen. I mean, that looked really good, like really, really good as it went through 30. And then it just rolled over really hard, but it's not broken. Like you could be looking to buy this back. And that's kind of been the environment we're in.

20:25Mike Webster:So what do you do with that? I think you spread out more as long as you're comfortable with that. You have smaller positions and I think you have to have a little bit wider stops. And what I'm trying to do is to not sell as quickly as I normally do. You either need to sell like have super tight stops, like almost where you buy it, like maybe even just letting like a half a percent or less go and being very precise with your buys. And that's hard to do if you're busy doing projects and other things as we are. So then if you're not, or people watching you who have full-time jobs and everything too, that you just have to give things a little bit more room.

21:11Mike Webster:And that's not something I'm comfortable with, but kind of what you have to do in that situation. So that's where we are in the market. I'm, I'm go to the EQAL. Again, this is how I think you have to think of the market. When this one gets hit really hard and can't come back through its 50 or a 21 day, then the character would have changed as long as it, you know, yesterday was not a good day for it, but those happen. Like that's, you know, doesn't mean, you know, you don't take action on days like that. But that's to be expected. What really should have happened today would have been another down day.

21:51In a normal market, when you run up like that, I was expecting this to come into the 21,

21:57Mike Webster:just mentally going, okay, well, the EQAL will come into the 21. That means we're going to have a lot more selling in other things because this is so slow. But it didn't. This was an inside day. today's bar was inside of yesterday. And that is a healthy thing after a sell-off like we had, you know, a broad-based sell-off that we had yesterday. So it's healthy. It does bother me that we're going into a three-day weekend that is US-based. So it is a crapshoot of what the global market does over the weekend. Let's go to VXUS, something we're trading on Swing Trader, and I have a position in as well.

22:38Mike Webster:And this is the rest of the world market cap weighted, excluding the United States. And this is telling you that the real bull market is elsewhere, which is so rare because the money is always, you know, for forever, it's been, the US has been where it's at. Now, you could have emerging markets and stuff that get hot for a little period of time, but not broad-based globally just beating us. And so you've got to be open to trading international ones. I would look for ETFs because it's a lot easier that way. But you can also look at some ADRs that are liquid. And you can search in Market Surge and search that way or whatever service you use.

23:28Mike Webster:But I think it's easier to go with international ETFs than most international stocks.

23:35Justin Nielsen:Well, with that, let's go ahead and take a look at our sector analysis. You've already touched on a few. And you know what? I'm going to do something a little different. I'm going to do the weekly percent change this time around because, again, it was kind of interesting to see what came back today and what didn't after Thursday's move. So the worst for the week, JETS that you already mentioned. started out pretty nicely and only down to the 21-day moving average line, but that was a 5.8 % drop. KBWB, the big banks, those were also back below the 50-day moving average line as they went down 5.5 % this week.

24:15Justin Nielsen:XLF, of course, also taking it on the chin. That came up to its 50-day moving average line got turned away and now it's kind of coming in XME we saw a lot of kind of movement in the metals and the miners gold silver but you know steel and aluminum and you know just the whole the whole gambit but this got support at the 50-day moving average line today so it was not a bad day today but for the week it was down almost four percent KRE the regional banks that was down for the week. But again, kind of getting support right where you'd want to see it get support at 70, this kind of resistance level.

24:57Justin Nielsen:IYT, speaking of taking on the chin along with jets, this got hit really hard yesterday. AI is not treating some of these areas nicely. You know, a lot of trucking forms. I mean, look at CHRW. You know, that got nailed in the transportation logistics.

25:16Mike Webster:Can you stop a second, Justin? So this is something that we are seeing a lot. These slow pokey stocks that out of the blue, all of a sudden get hit, like so out of character that it almost feels like a flash crash type of move on them with concerns about the -

25:36Justin Nielsen:And I want to say it like the day before, it's not like, oh yeah, you should have seen that coming.

25:40Mike Webster:I would have been all over this if I, you know, because there are several places where I should have bought this. And I kept saying, you know, the transports were really getting hot because they were. And then all of a sudden just blasting out of some of the really terrible moves. So just another reason to be spread out more because you never know when that stock that you are trading, they all of a sudden realize that, oh, well, it's AI is going to kill this, this area, or at least that's a temporary thought on a lot of these things.

26:14Justin Nielsen:So at the very least, disrupt it in a big enough way that they're going to have to change their business model, you know, and, and kind of figure something else out.

26:23Mike Webster:So IGV was like the poster child for that. I know we haven't gotten there yet. I don't think, but you know, not yet, but I mean, yeah,

26:30Justin Nielsen:Yeah. I mean, we saw this earlier with the Anthropic news, their cloud work and, you know, everything that that meant for a lot of these subscription, you know, software subscription as a service companies. So, yeah, but we'll get there. XBI. This is the biotech's a lot of strengths in XLV. But for the week, XBI was down about 2 percent. Didn't didn't have a great close today, back below its 50 day moving average line. Um, XRT, the retail, uh, ETF that's coming back to its 50 day moving average line, uh, coming back up to it after breaking below it yesterday. Uh, we'll see how that finishes out, but that was down for the week.

27:13Justin Nielsen:I bet down for the week, but not as bad as it was, uh, thanks to today, uh, helping out things, uh, it was up over 5%, but still in a major downtrend.

27:23Mike Webster:Can you stop there for a second on the I bet? So, and let's go to the GBTC because we brought this up before. And this is just, I know we all like to use IBIT, but when you, if you want a little bit more history using this one and let's do the best fit and go out a little bit.

27:47Mike Webster:Otherwise known as worst fit, but yeah, I'll take off the boxes. So let's go to the monthly, actually, because you just really can't see the drawdowns. This is its character. And I believe we mentioned it either on the Swing Trader update this week or last SMT. But the drawdowns on there, measure them on a percentage basis. And that should be what you have in the card, what you think is in the cards. You hope if you're trading it, I'm not trading it right now, but you hope that that doesn't happen. But that's what you have to expect. And you would I would do this on any index on any chart, any stock, just go, okay, what is its history been?

28:31Mike Webster:That's its character, it likes to make these types of moves or on that transport that we were just looking at that it was super tight. And all of a sudden has this wild move, you know, the character is changing. So with this, I mean, that's probably I didn't do the math, but probably like 14 bucks or so would be like,

28:46Justin Nielsen:is exactly what I was thinking too. I didn't do the math either, but that's where I was going to mark it.

28:52Mike Webster:Right, because a high or low, but it still does so much devastation. So if that's in your mind, you go back and study these moves down, not now, but you go back and on those ways down, you're going to see times when they rally up, just like in 2000 to 2002 or 2007 to 2009, 2009, the NASDAQ had these rallies along the way. So it doesn't mean, you know, if you'd like to trade a lot, there's going to be times where you could trade them and they move up, but still the character, the overall, it's still in a downtrend. So let's go to the daily on here. And this looks like it wants to go higher in the very short term, but you don't want to get sucked into, unless you're just trading, like a swing trade, a day trade, a, you know, a shorter term trade, like it would have to get materially past that, um, that 7650 for that, the character to even be remotely changing.

29:52Justin Nielsen:Um, but easily see it coming up to the 21 day getting turned away.

29:56Mike Webster:Yeah. Maybe even the 50 day getting turned away.

29:59Justin Nielsen:Um, you know, 7650, that would be a nice move from here, but doesn't mean it's out of the woods yet. Right. It could easily get turned away there too. So

30:09Mike Webster:Exactly. And I think people should, after the show, go back and study the 2000-02 and 07-09. Now, not all bear markets are created equal. Like 1973-74 was just a slow bleed, which was very unique and different than most, you know, didn't have those rallies that we have these days. But we don't have to go there. Anyways, you can keep going. I will shut up because we want to get out of here.

30:36Justin Nielsen:Yeah, we have a long weekend to get to. So XLY, of course, this is the consumer discretionary. Amazon really, really weighing this down. Tesla is another big component there. Not as bad, but still below the 50-day moving average line. So that's putting pressure on there. uh spy was down for the week uh down about 1.3 so uh the fact that it closed you know basically flat today just made it so that it wasn't uh you know as bad as it could have been uh same thing with the queues uh down about 1.3 iwb uh this is our uh russell 1000 not the equal weighted that we were showing earlier with eqal uh so this was down also about 1.3 so you know i got right in line, all those major market cap weighted indexes, roughly the same for the week.

31:24Justin Nielsen:Now, XLK was right there with them a little bit better, down 1.1 % for the week. And again, getting turned away at its 50-day moving average line. XLC, you know, this was getting propped up a little bit by Google, or I should say the parent company Alphabet, but Alphabet has been kind of struggling as of late. that came down below its 50-day moving.

31:47Mike Webster:I don't buy that, Justin. It's still Google. I don't care what they say. I'm not calling it alphabet. It's not alphabet. It's Google.

31:54Justin Nielsen:Yeah. Okay. Well, we can call it by the old names.

31:59Mike Webster:You got to make a stand at some point in life. Yeah. There you go. That's where I'm making it.

32:04Justin Nielsen:Meta, of course, also in XLC, this is below the 200-day moving average line. MDY, as you mentioned, this is getting support right there at the 21 day moving average line it was down for the week but again less than a percent and a nice comeback uh you know you start looking at the weekly charts here and things that are off their lows uh kind of get get some get some points for that uh not quite as bad uh slv we talked about this a lot last week in terms of this climax top action so while it wasn't down too much for this week, you know, because of the way it started, yesterday was no fun and just kind of goes to show you this might be a do not touch area.

32:48Justin Nielsen:That stove is hot. Speaking of hot uranium and nuclear, that is getting support right there at the 50 day moving average line, only down a half a percent. And XLV was flat for the week. This was up a nice 1%. Again, really looking kind of interesting here. a lot of the healthcare names. And this is XLV despite UNH, which has really been dragging this down in the medical managed care. But that's a big component for XLV and has been dragging it down. Eli Lilly, of course, another component in there that's been holding up fairly well. So, you know, some stuff to look at there. Now, for what closed up for the week, we switch over to QQQE, the equal weighted queues, still below the 50-day moving average line, but, you know, off the lows for the week and, you know, from yesterday and up for the week.

33:40Justin Nielsen:So that was kind of nice. RSP in the same boat up for the week, just barely due to today's action, kind of recovering from yesterday. TAN, the solar stocks, that was up for the week as well, about a third of a percent. IGV ended up for the week. But come on, it still looks terrible, as Ed would say.

34:04Mike Webster:I would say with the IGV for a second, when you hit a low, like an extreme low like that, and then your next low isn't as low, if you flip that chart around, you would think it was going to be going upside down. You're going to be thinking it's going to mean revert. So I think the base cases for this is to maybe run up to the 21-day, just like we were talking about with the IBIT. I wouldn't get excited if all of a sudden you see this run up to that, just like when it hit the 98-70 low and it ran up to the 50-day. That's a long way up to 110, but it ran up there and then ended up rolling. Things don't go in a straight line.

34:54Mike Webster:They get overdone at some point and then they have to mean revert, but the direction is down. And so be careful.

35:03Justin Nielsen:Yeah, don't don't get excited. And again, it doesn't mean you can't trade it. But, you know, have have your eyes on that exit, you know, the entire time. ITA, the aerospace and defense, an area of strength lately. This was up one percent for the day and finished the week up about a half a percent. So not a bad look there. I do have a position in that one. XLI, the industrials, you know, got hit yesterday, but still closed up for the week, a little bit more than half a percent, about 0.6. And not a bad day today with an eight-tenths of a percent gain. EQAL that you already covered, didn't quite recover all of the losses from yesterday, but got pretty close, made a nice dent in it.

35:47Justin Nielsen:So that was nice to see that recovery. the XOP, which is the Oil and Gas Explorers and Producers, that was up 2.3%. A nice move today. Again, didn't recover completely from yesterday's action, but for the week, it was still up 1%. So not bad there.

36:04Mike Webster:I will just say I dislodged my position in that yesterday, I believe. Maybe I still have some remnants, but regretting it because as I was doing a lot of screening today, the energy stocks or oil stocks, there are a lot of them that look really good. So I'm looking to get exposure back to that. And this might be perfect because with that wide day yesterday, normally what would end up happening is you would build a little shelf here. Staying in between, for the most part, sometimes you'll go out for a little bit of yesterday's high and low, but most of it should trade within that if it's normal and natural, and then give you an entry point.

36:47Mike Webster:Like an upside reversal during that would be really ideal. But just, I would keep an eye on this space.

36:56Justin Nielsen:Absolutely. And SMH, for as ugly as software has looked, for as ugly as tech has looked, the chips holding up really nicely, still above their 21 day moving average line. And yesterday really wasn't hitting the chips that hard for as ugly as it was. kind of everywhere chips chips were were fairly you know held up fairly well so this was up 1.5 percent for the week you know not much of a gain today but up 1.5 percent for the week so not bad at all GLD the gold shares spider this was up for the week up about one one and a half percent a lot of that was because of today's action you know up 2.5 percent today so that turned it from a negative week to a positive one just from today's action.

37:47Justin Nielsen:But still, there could be some volatility here after that break. XLP continues to be one of the areas of strength. This is the consumer staples led by Walmart. This is something that we talked about with Nancy Tangler on the podcast this week. Certainly one of the areas of strength. Yeah, I know that's that's the way I roll. XLE is also been on a tear here lately. This is the energy. And look, it's not just Exxon Mobil and Chevron, which are the two biggest components here. If you look at RSPG, which is the equal weighted component, it looks pretty similar. There's a lot of participation here, not just with your big guys.

38:26Justin Nielsen:um xlb the materials uh this was up uh for the week this was up about 3.5 percent for the week even though today wasn't necessarily spectacular it was up almost a percent for the day uh recovered a lot of ground lost and again it just didn't really come in all that much with yesterday's action um xlre uh was actually you know up yesterday it didn't you know it was well off its highs yesterday. But the fact that this closed up really kind of shows how a lot of folks are going into some of these dividend payers, the REITs, the utilities, even what we call the dividend aristocrats with Noble or the high dividend yield.

39:09Justin Nielsen:What is that?

39:11Mike Webster:HDV, was it?

39:12Justin Nielsen:HDV. Yeah, there you go, the high dividend. I mean, yeah, that's just been on a tear lately. So dividend stocks really kind of been on a tear lately here. Here's OIH. This is the Bannock Oil Services. I do have a position in this one. I went with this one instead of XOP as my oil exposure. And that had a good week, up 3.9 % for the week and up 2 % for the day, recovering a lot of ground lost yesterday and actually puncturing into new highs today. ITB, I also have a position in this one. This is the U.S. home construction. It didn't close well yesterday, but held up pretty well, despite being well off its highs.

39:57Justin Nielsen:And so for the week, ITB was up 4 % with 1 % getting added today. A lot of stocks setting up there. GDX, we already looked at gold, but GDX, the gold miners, that actually had an even stronger day. 5.8 % for the day, 6.7 % for the week. So it was already, despite yesterday's ugly action, was already still up for the week as of yesterday. And then, as you mentioned, XLU took the top spot for the week. It was up 7.3 % with a 2.8 % gain for the day. And Utes also up 8.3 % with a 3.1 % gain for the day. And those are our sectors. This podcast is brought to you by ReliaQuest. Cybercriminals are constantly attacking.

40:46Justin Nielsen:They want your data. They want your identity. They want your innovation. ReliaQuest's AI detects, contains, and eliminates cyber threats faster. It helps your security teams move faster at the work that matters most to protect the business now and delivers insights to help them predict what's next. ReliaQuest, AI-powered cybersecurity. Learn more at ReliaQuest.com. That's R-E-L-I-A-Q-U-E-S-T dot com. Shall we get to some individual stocks, Mike? Yeah, let's do it. Okay. And we, oh, you know what? I should have mentioned I do have, I think I have the position in use. I don't think I have XLU, but I think I do have both.

41:23Justin Nielsen:Yeah, I do have both. I know I have Utes. I'm not sure I have XLU. But okay, let's start with Shark Ninja. This is, I do have a position in this. It was kind of a wild day of price discovery on its earnings report. What is attracting you to this one?

41:43Mike Webster:I was just trying to look to see if, try to open up my brokerage account. Let's just assume I have a position in it. What I like about it is I enjoy, or I like their products. And that goes a long way. If anyone hasn't read Peter Lynch's book, Went Up on Wall Street, you should read it. It is, Bill was a big fan of Peter Lynch and it was really like invest in what you know. Like that was what Peter gave to, you know, the investing community. And so I always pay attention to what I'm spending money on, what my family or friends are spending money on or what I see online that is really hot. They've got great products.

42:22Mike Webster:I use the Ninja blender every day for my protein shakes. And, you know, I think we've got their vacuum cleaners and stuff. it's all you know always been happy and they're fairly priced it's not like the top end stuff it's just you know a lot of bang for your buck so that goes a long way with me but it's not everything like there are good good products and services out there that i don't want to buy because the chart isn't right but let's go to the weekly because the point about this was this was in the penalty block box for a long time for me and it was after that first bad thank you. I was waiting for you to do it on your own.

42:59Mike Webster:I was like, it was your fault.

43:01Justin Nielsen:You're the one that said, Hey, I said, turn it back.

43:04Mike Webster:I said, turn it back. That's okay. Um, we're just having fun. Some people might not know, like we've been friends since 1998. Like we can mess with each other. Go to that.

43:14Justin Nielsen:We met by sharing a hotel room in Philadelphia for a workshop. You know, that's like, Oh, nice to meet you. Uh, here, I guess we had separate beds though.

43:22Mike Webster:That was good.

43:23Justin Nielsen:Yeah, it wasn't one of those plane, trains, and automobile situations. Those aren't pillows.

43:27Mike Webster:All right. So go to that bad break week the first time. Yeah, that one. So when a stock does that, it really, and I've studied this in great detail, it goes in the penalty box for me for a long time, especially when it does it again. And point to the next time when it broke the 40-week line. that to me i read that is a fund or funds are trapped in there and they want to reduce their position substantially or they want to get out of their position completely and until they're done and sometimes they can take a year or you know or even longer because they don't trade the way we trade like they trade in in size over long periods of time and they're very price sensitive so they'll wait for liquidity events like earnings days to to unload on so i just have a general rule that when it first breaks like that and you have multiple breaks that i stay out of it until it can build something above the original break so this structure here this cup with handle that it's that it's out of is now sitting up above that original break.

44:42Mike Webster:And by the break, I mean actually the high of the break. So when it's up there and is able to break out and hold, then it tells me that the seller is done or they're really smart and they're waiting. They're like, oh, people have figured this out, but I don't think they're smart. I think they're just, I think they're done. and you could kind of see that bottom week feels like a capitulation. Like the people are like, finally, Oh, just get me out. I don't care what I pay for. I'm sick of watching this thing. And I want to use this money for something else. And then they get cleaned up and then it, then it goes, you don't buy it after that, but you wait for it to set up.

45:21Mike Webster:And this was a beautiful looking base as far as the silhouette of it is very U shaped and with little drift down in the handle. And you have the, But can you refresh it so we can see the tight area on there? So we've got multiple weeks in there that are tight, meaning closing almost unchanged. And then you have a little shakeout underneath that. And that's a beautiful setup. Breaks out, but pulls back in in a gentle way, relatively speaking, down to its 10-week line, gets support there, and then moves on this earnings announcement, which is now another liquidity event where they could have sold into it.

46:01Mike Webster:And instead of selling into it, it's been accumulated. So I like that. Let's put the boxes back on because that's the next thing I wanted to mention. Well, first of all, that earnings line there, that angle of ascent on their bill would have just loved. And I just love them because if you've studied enough charts with earnings lines, they ultimately follow what the earnings are doing given enough time. and that's a beautiful looking earnings line with the exception of that one little blip up. You want it a little bit more stable than that. So when you see that, you also want to look at their estimates.

46:40Mike Webster:So the annual estimates, 15 and 14%, well, they always lowball their estimates, but at least that's okay. If that was like five or 6%, it would bother me, but that's enough to still be healthy. Now let's go to the actual numbers and let's go down to the quarterly numbers. So with this, you have a lot of a wall of blue, but it's not perfect. You see that minus 18 in there and you can see that on the earnings line, how it blips up and then blips down. So that might have been some weird charge or something that quarter that wasn't backed out because it looks a little odd. but your sales did drop from the 20 and 30 range into the teens, that is a mark against it.

47:24Mike Webster:So it's not an A quality stock, but I would say this is a B or B plus quality. And the estimates for the sales are still in line with its recent past. And that's what I'd look at the sales estimates, as well as the earnings estimates to give me a sense of what do they think. And because analysts are very smart and they do a lot of really hard work to put these numbers in their models. Are they always right now? Do they lowball all the time? That's their job is to lowball. So if you got 18 % there, they really think it's higher than 18%, but they want to put it there because they want the company to be able to beat the expectations.

48:06Mike Webster:So that's a B to B plus. And the fact that it's a relatively recent new issue. It doesn't have to be an IPO and just in the last three week IPO. It can be something that is over the last, and Bill would even look out to six or seven years and still classify that as a recent IPO. And I do the same, but I tend to be more in like the two to three year, like up to three years, it's still in that early phase for me. So this looks very, very classic. Let's go to the daily to see if there's anything else. on there. It's held up and has been blue for three days while the market has been gyrating, but that's also because the earnings came out.

48:49Mike Webster:So very solid. We can move on to the next one.

48:52Justin Nielsen:Okay. Let's take a look at a blast from the past. Brunswick. So of course, Brunswick, very well known for the bowling, the bowling alleys, pin spotters, everything that was involved with a model book stock with some very heavy markups by Bill O 'Neill. We shared that in one of our workshops and maybe a little intimidating for some folks, but it kind of shows how he would go through and analyze something, not necessarily the way he traded, but the way he thinks, you know, oh, the way it could have been traded. Of course, it's always easier in hindsight, but it was a good practice that he went through in terms of that post analysis of, you know, they're really big winners.

49:37Justin Nielsen:Now, of course, Brunswick has changed its business. At one point, I think it was in the billiards originally, and then the bowling, and now it's marine products. Of course, this is something that did very well as people were getting outside with COVID. Anything that was kind of outside sports was doing very well, had a nice run there, but it really hasn't done much over the last few years. So what are you thinking on this one, Mike?

50:08Mike Webster:Well, okay, let's go to the weekly. I was looking around for something to talk about today and I always try to make it as educational as possible. So this is what a turnaround is. It looks like the bill would be happy with. Okay, so there's all sorts of ways of turnarounds. There's price turnarounds. David Ryan had brought up earlier this week Netflix as a turnaround. Let's go there for a second. So he had a calculated thing in there. He was saying, okay, he thought it was going to turn around. It didn't end up working out. Man, most trades don't end up working out. But that's a price turnaround in saying that, okay, you think that it's hit bottom, but go down to the quarterly numbers on that one for a second.

50:57Mike Webster:That's not a turnaround in the sake that what Bill would say a turnaround is. On the fundamental side, basically. Yes. So when we talk about turnarounds, we're not talking about price turnarounds of buying in the dirt like that. We're talking about Brunswick. So let's go and look at the difference there now that you've got this thing out of the way. So let's go down to those quarterly numbers. This is what a turnaround is. And in our model books, it would be about a quarter of the models would be a turnaround. So they would fit this mold where you're not buying it in the dirt. You're not buying a bottoming base or underneath moving averages.

51:41Mike Webster:You're waiting for proper time to buy it and the the numbers are starting to turn around so you see that wall of red there now all of a sudden you've got a positive number in a big way with a plus 142. that's what he would demand he wouldn't have bought this before that 142 even with a huge quarterly estimate he would wait for that print to actually happen before he would consider it So now it's a possibility to trade. So it wouldn't have been prior to that December quarter being out there. So then you look back at it and go, OK, well, it bottomed. It had a price turnaround in the March of 25.

52:25Mike Webster:But now we have the fundamental turnaround. So if you know how to buy it down there, buy it. I don't know. And Bill would have shot me if we would have bought it, tried to buy it down there. But what we're doing is trying to look for it up here. So you get that small little cup with handle or cup without handle that's super tight in there. You've got four weeks in there that are red, four or five, but they're almost unchanged there. And you get that shake out at the bottom week. You break out and then you hold in tight. And then on top of that, you move up to a new level and then you get supported the 10 week line.

53:00Mike Webster:Like this is textbook. Why am I not in it? I don't know. I need to get in it. So now let's go up to the annual numbers before we go over to the daily. This is the other thing that he would demand is that the annual estimates are big like that. So the 30 % and 27%. And he would actually want those numbers. This is where it's slightly defective. He would want those estimates to be higher than a recent annual number. So this is the one place where it's got a problem. Do you see that$10.02 back in 2022? He would say that's too low because it's only saying that it's going to basically be roughly half of that.

53:46Mike Webster:He would want that to be up there. Now, he would probably think through and say, okay, well, that was post-COVID like you're talking about. And so it had a big pickup in there and then just go, okay, that was a one-off, kind of like an extraordinary event. And that was - It is kind of to its pre-COVID. Exactly. You saw where I was going there. And if you go back to like a 24 and 25 at the four bucks, and then it was like four and five bucks before, now we're back over there. So I think he would let this one pass. Let's go to the daily.

54:19Justin Nielsen:Before we go there, I just want to say it's remarkable how many times you see something like this, where the price, you know, the price bottoms or tops. and then you see the earnings line kind of do the same action. So it's incredible how often you see the price lead this line.

54:40Mike Webster:I would say that's almost always the case. Like if I had to put a number on it, nothing is 99%, but it's pretty much 99. I mean, that's a whole topic. Man, we've gone 54 minutes. I haven't even gotten to my charts. Okay, let's go to this. You're trying to get me on a tangent. It's all your fault, Justin. I take no responsibility, no personal responsibility. I'm a teenager. So this is really nice action. So where did my eyes go to? Well, that gap up, and I didn't get a chance to check the news. So the first thing I would do afterwards is go and look at that news that gapped it up there where you've got the 2.4 million shares that moved.

55:22Mike Webster:See why it moved. Understand what's going on. And sometimes when you get moves like that, it's like, oh, they're being acquired or something. I don't remember hearing that. But you always want to be aware of that and look at the news on any big spikes. But it tried to break out yesterday. And that's where I would have wanted to buy it, frankly. And then hopefully not had been stopped out. But now that that's happened, I'm going to use that high as my entry point. So we'll see. But this is what a turnaround looks like. doesn't mean it's going to work out, but you never know. Let's go to the next stock and I'll try to be faster.

55:59Justin Nielsen:Okay. Costco, I actually chose this as my stock for my column this week. And this is one that we actually, this is a little bit of a turnaround too, in terms of price. You know, it has this weekly chart, a big, long kind of, I would almost label this a saucer. Yeah, it's very, yeah, very shallow, very long, spent a lot of time below its 40 week moving average line, a lot of time below its 10 week moving average line. And then here we go back above the 200 day moving average line. But you know, by the time that happened, which I mean, we're not going to buy it under the 200 day line. And, you know, it was kind of already extended like 10 % off its lows, but it gave us the opportunity with a little handle formed here.

56:46Justin Nielsen:So we bought it here, but we've had to, it's been really hard holding things for very long. So we started trimming on this day, got out on this day, and boom, back in yesterday with a follow-up ad. We've been, you know, trying to do some follow-up ads to our positions, starting them off small, adding to them if they're working. but again, we don't know if we're gonna get a full week out of this one yet. Or ideally we would love to be holding something for more than a week, but that just hasn't been in the cards lately. So your take on Costco.

57:20Mike Webster:Yeah, I do have a position and then I pretty much traded the way we put it on swing trader and took it off and then went back in and it's like, okay, it's going back up, man. You know, the stock doesn't care that you just bought it and sold it. I don't think it was a bad trade. I think we handled it the way we were supposed to. Came out with a gain. Yeah. And then you go back into it. Just like, okay, it's set back up. You got to go back into it. And this is also so typical of our current environment. Like this is like textbook goes up just enough to wear you out, then goes back up again. And, uh, but, and we all know Costco, right?

57:56Mike Webster:I mean, they make pizzas that I can't eat anymore because it's got gluten, but man, those were such a good deal. You know, I'm vegetarian, so I don't do the hot dog, but man, I can't have anything there anymore. But shopping is great. Their online stuff is great. They got travel stuff. They don't do anything wrong as far as I'm concerned. And that's so rare for a company. And I think it's why Bill O 'Neill, how long was he in price company, which was kind of the Costco before there was Costco? I want to say five and a half years.

58:27Justin Nielsen:It sounds right. Not as long as price. pick and save that was seven and a half years but yeah i think it was definitely it was years yeah it was definitely over three um so yeah and he did the whole peter lynch thing there you know

58:43Mike Webster:if you ever hear him tell the story which we don't have time don't get me off on those tangents justin let's go to the weekly so he was down in one of the first stores in san diego and he saw all these people with these carts of these big giant mayonnaise things and that they were buying that they would have for five years until they had to throw it out. And he's like, there's something special here. So he went and had the prices. I think it was traded on the San Diego exchange at the time, if I'm not mistaken. He sat in and just waited for that chart to set up right. And ultimately, like six months or so afterwards, it had a little double bottom and broke out.

59:21Mike Webster:I think it was around 14 bucks, but who knows? My memory these days. But let's go down to the quarterly numbers for a sec. So with this one, the sales, you've got to understand, like, this is Costco. You're not going to have those huge sales numbers. So like if this was a software stock and you saw single digit sales growth, no way. I don't even want to touch it. But this is, you know, a big box. You know, the only competitors really are Sam's Club and BJ's Wholesale. and we already saw that Walmart's doing so well and BJ's was doing well. So you've got the group move and even smaller stores and stuff that aren't related, like a Casey's and stuff.

1:00:06Mike Webster:Like there's a lot of money going into this space. And as you said, it's really a saucer there or a long shallow cup with handle. And so it looks like it has a long way to go. Yes, the RS number is very low at 46, But remember, when Apple broke out originally in what was that, 04 or something, it was the RS number was a 55 before it broke out. So there are exceptions. This looks like one of them. We'll see how it plays out.

1:00:36Justin Nielsen:I had also mentioned that, gosh, back in 2010, AutoZone came out of this very long saucer and relative strength was dismal. I want to say it was like 30 or something like that. It was low. But it was one of those cases where it was basing while what happened in 2009, big recovery in the market. So that was part of the reasoning there. So, yeah.

1:01:01Mike Webster:And I will just say, because I've heard people misstate on like saucers and stuff that, oh, I don't like it because that RS line is too low or the RS number is too low. Go study a chart, folks, when you say things like that, because all saucers, by the nature of a saucer, are going to have a low RS line and a low RS number unless they happen in the middle of a prolonged bear market. That's the only way, because by the nature of it is going sideways and down, it's going to have low numbers. So you really want to think. Don't just parrot what other people have said. So that's just -

1:01:39Justin Nielsen:One other thing on Costco I'm going to just mention, for as low as those numbers are, the stability. I mean, earning stability of one, this is a number one to 99, one being the most stable. That's kind of what you're getting from Costco is that stability in its earnings.

1:01:56Mike Webster:Justin, we should flip that earning stability 99 to one, because to do it the right way, because it throws so many people off, but then it'll really confuse people. they'll be like wait wait what what just happened yeah so um so with that i think um time for charts and i've got a new something special to go over so don't don't go away guys because there is something yes we've been going an hour man it's all justin's fault never my fault yeah i mean here

1:02:26Justin Nielsen:we go all right well quit talking about how long we've been going and keep it moving oh okay so

1:02:33Mike Webster:This is what we're going to do is we're going to go through a bunch of charts here, and we're going to just look at each one in isolation and just say, okay, this is the only chart we're looking at. What is it telling me? Then from there, we're going to paint a picture in our mind of the different ETFs we're looking at, as well as the overall market to see, is it good, bad, or indifferent? It's just a procedure that I like to go through, and it helps me. These are all price base that we're looking at, just price only. So the first one is a Bob Weir take a step back looking at a longer time frame.

1:03:07Mike Webster:And this is a weekly chart, a weekly candle. And this is not a good candle. It's not a horrible candle. Why is it not a horrible candle? We didn't take out last week's low. That's a good thing. We did trade up near last week's high. That's a good thing. Those are the only two real good things about it. What's bad about it? Everything else. the top wick is longer than the bottom wick. That means it went way up there and it couldn't hold, end up closing lower. And your bottom wick, you would like to see it longer than your top wick. So it has that going against it. It's also a negative candle, meaning that it opened up here and closed lower.

1:03:48Mike Webster:That's why it's pink. And so it gives you, what expectation does it give you sideways or down? Is it out of the ordinary to have a bad week in there when you've had really one, two, three, four, five, you know, five decent candles in there, some better than others, but all blue in there. Yes. It's okay to have that, but it doesn't give you an expectation of falling apart next week or ripping up. That's just an isolation. We'll look at the rest. Here's the Nasdaq composite. Does not look good. Same things. The top wick is longer than the bottom wick. A big, wide candle. The body itself looks wider than last week's and certainly way wider than the week before that.

1:04:36Mike Webster:You don't want to see that acceleration of bigger negative bodies as it's coming down. It's not a sign of accumulation. It's a sign of distribution. the only thing that's good on this is that the the bottom wick shook out slightly below last week's and you were able to close up from there besides that really nothing good um let's go to iwm which i have a position in not a good looking candle but not a horrible candle the the bottom wick is slightly that's from here to here slightly uh higher visually than than the top one so that's but you don't want to have to squint or really want to like have to measure it.

1:05:17Mike Webster:You want it to be obvious that it's in the, that one is that the bottom is bigger than the top. So it's kind of in balance there. So that's an okay thing. What's good about it is you traded much higher than the last two weeks high. That's a good thing. Your low was much higher than last week's low. That's a good thing. On the negative side, it was a small little candle or negative body. So not great, but not horrible. Let's just look at RSP because why not? And this is where it's at. The equal weight, this looks good. A higher high is a little bit of a stalling type of feel because you have a much longer top wick than a bottom wick, but still you were able to close higher than last week's.

1:06:01Mike Webster:And so this looks like it wants to go higher or sideways. The other ones, you know, if we go back to the IWM, that one looks like sideways, you know, sideways really is what that looks like. Now, we'll go on to our next charts. This is the old regression that we had had back from May. And that regression broke back on October 10th. We'll look at our new ones. So we'll start off with SPY. So SPY, and this is, without getting too much into it because we're so long, if you want more details on this, watch prior ones where we get into it. But this starts off at this bottom day here on November 21st.

1:06:49Mike Webster:And then we're stopping it here on February 4th, which is 50 days. This is just doing a best fit regression through all of that. your line of best fit or your regression line is your white dash line. I refer to that as home base that in a healthy trend, the index or stock wants to revert back to it. It's not like it hugs that line the whole time, but that is where the mean reversions trade happen. When you're underneath it, people get in there and want to push back up to it. When you're over it, people start taking profits or short selling, and then it pulls back into that line. And you just want to interpret How is that doing it?

1:07:30Mike Webster:Well, it broke well underneath it on the 5th, and so you needed to have this bounce back in here for this to still be in play. So it got back up there, but now we're back underneath it. So this is holding on by a thread, really. And if we can't get back up into here by next week, we're going to have to save this one. We can't use this channel, and we're going to have to look for a new one. So that's not a good thing. Now let's look at the NASA composite. That one is completely broken because you fell down below it here on the fourth, which is okay because we could have gone right back into it, but we haven't.

1:08:13Mike Webster:And now we're living underneath that. That one is dead. We need to look for a new trend. Let's look at IWM, which I have a position in, which we have to say every time. This is doing what it should do, but it was a little bit weak this time because when we went through, this is kind of this dash line, which is a minus 0.75 standard deviations away from this white dash line. The solid green line is one standard deviation away. Don't get hung up on that. Just look at those lines. When it goes through that green dash line, its tendency is to go right back up to that white dash line and beyond, which is exactly what happened here.

1:08:54Mike Webster:This is textbook and normal and natural, got up to the red line and then got into some selling and then came back down, did another test. That's like a sine wave on an uptrend is really what you want to keep in your mind. So this was a little bit weak in that it didn't move back above here. So that's a little negative against it. But honestly, when you're coming back through this green line is where you typically want to gun it because the expectation is for it to get back up in here. Let's look at RSP. I think I did one on here. This one is holding up much better than the other ones in that it's staying within primarily within the 0.75 on the downside.

1:09:38Mike Webster:So it's a much tighter one, did get up here. So that selling was, that's why I didn't get as freaked out as I normally would of with yesterday's selling. I mean, I had to cut back and all, but not as big as I would have just because that looked normal. It was just coming right back to home base. Now it's gone back above home base. So this is looking healthy. I'm not sure if I did one on EQAL or not. Yes, I did. So on this one looks even better because when we got that strength, it got all the way up to your one standard deviation, which is a sign of strength, but it's also typically where you kind of run into some selling.

1:10:18Mike Webster:That's pretty much exactly what happened there. Sometimes they'll go and go above that and live up above that and then start a new trend. And if we get in that space, we'll talk about it. Let's look at one last one. And I do have a position in all of these, the VXUS, the IWM, and the EQAL, and the RSP. So with this, this is the international one, excluding the US, and is very healthy, just like the EQAL. It looks textbook. And sometimes in really powerful trends, they'll just start living in this upper space, just like the 50 % returns that we're going to talk about next, that it just lives in that upper half.

1:11:00Mike Webster:Those are your best and strongest uptrends. So we'll go on to the 50 % retracement. This is still using the high from October, the low from November. And we want to cut to the chase. We want to live in the upper part of this. So above the middle or the 50 % retracement is 670 and change. So you're living up in this space. That's what you want to. Well, you really want to make new highs, but at least it's in a good area. Well, let's look at the NASDAQ. Not so much, right? It's struggling and now is in that lower half. So again, another negative, but let's take a look at IWM. We have different highs and lows and it's still in the upper half of that one.

1:11:47Mike Webster:And I think I've got RSP on there and that's just way past those levels. Now let's move on to our levels one. And this is just key levels to look for. You could put a lot more on here, or this might be too many lines for some people, but I would suggest putting these on your charts, wherever they make sense to you. This is what makes sense to me. And I look at kind of key lows and see how they handle themselves as if they test them. So this was a key low here, the January 20th, it tested it and had a successful test on the 5th where it came down. They typically undercut them by a little bit and then you got that nice bounce.

1:12:29Mike Webster:So that was good. The other line in the sand to look at would be the December 12th or 17th low. Let's look at the NASDAQ. Well, that is not doing what it should do, right? Because it's blown through a couple of lines there. Now we've got a new line that I put there with today's low, and hopefully that holds. But the next level really to pay attention to would be down here at the 21 ,898 and change, which was pretty much long that 200 days. So we're going to have to keep an eye on that one. Not looking good. The IWM looks much better. And then so I put the lows here at yesterday or line at yesterday's low, but really the more important one would be the low from the fifth.

1:13:17Mike Webster:Now we are going to get into something exciting. Come on, Justin, be excited. A little something new. A little something new. Okay. So I changed these charts. These are the fib charts that I've been sharing for the last few months. I've been using this for years, but it just hadn't shared it. So I use a bunch of different moving averages and I removed the candle. So you don't even have the price bar on there. You only have moving averages. And this is a really good way of just seeing, is it trending or is it choppy? You can look at your account to tell if it's been choppy. It's been choppy. But this is a good visual to use.

1:14:00Mike Webster:So I use all the Fibonacci numbers or the first sets of them. So you can just Google those. So a three, a five, an eight, a 13, and so on. And then this bottom one, I think, is the 233. So you can just look at all of those and then see, are they stacked properly? Now, I've got a couple of indicators that I've built around that, but I was having trouble dusting them off because I'm doing a lot of other things, too, and I just couldn't find the code. um so what i did is just have this very simple way of doing it which is kind of how i started off that um building that uh i'm gonna call it my webby's mojo trend um and i'll share that in that because i like cool names and you know mojo's rising and all that stuff and you gotta have your mojo hand and anyways it makes me keeps me interested so whatever makes you happy whatever makes me happy Yeah.

1:14:56Mike Webster:So we will put that in the future. But this is just this line down here is just tallying up. It's just counting how many are above each one. And so you can you can build that yourself or just count it. And I just wanted us to be able to see what does it look like when it's normal and natural and trending? And what does it look like when it's in trouble? So I'm going to zoom out a little bit so you can get used to this line. That's that green thing on the bottom. So when you're over here and it's pinned to its top at 45, it means you're getting one point for every moving average that's above another one.

1:15:33Mike Webster:So I'll explain it this way. You've got your three day up here all the way. So a three day, a five day, an eight day, a 13 day, a 21 day, a 34 day, a 55 day, an 89 day, 144 and a 233, I believe. and so those are all the ones on there when each one that's above it gets a when a short-term one is above a longer-term one it gets a point so it maxes out at 45 which is this line here don't like don't get hung up on all that just kind of look at the the chart when it's fanned out and each one is above it that's a healthy trend that's when you're going to make the most amount of money but it's not going to stay up there forever.

1:16:15Mike Webster:So when enough of them roll over, that's where you run into trouble. So anything with a 40 or higher, you're good to go. But then once you start getting into 35 or lower, that's when it's a little bit of a trouble. Underneath that, you've got problems. And you can see this with this bear market over here. When that broke down below your 30 level there, that's when the pain really started happening. And we'll do this each week and you'll start to get to know these. So let's look at the NASDAQ composite. And much worse, right? That's down to a 22 over here. And you can see all those lines crossing each other.

1:16:56Mike Webster:But now let's look at an IWM. That's up at a 41. Yes, they're not all stacked properly, but almost all stacked properly. But let's go over to a...

1:17:06Justin Nielsen:And also just I'm noticing what a difference in comparison when you look at the NASDAQ and how it had its November correction, you know, and where that green line came down to. And now this time it's much worse as opposed to IWM. You know, it came in a little bit, but not nearly as much.

1:17:24Mike Webster:But that's and we haven't talked about this. This is the first time you're seeing it. It is. Yeah, that's exactly the point is very much like the Bob Marley indicator and looking at those lows. Where does it where does it tend to stop? And let's just look at, we'll go back to that NASDAQ to give you a sense for that. And we'll, we'll zoom out a little bit more, you know, and you can see over longer periods of time, kind of where it goes. And then once you run into real trouble, it's really after breaking that, but, but this could be, you know, this is a big topic, but I wanted something where, you know, people could easily build it themselves or maybe i'll do a webinar on it or something okay so that's this is the iwm looking better let's look at an rsp it's pinned up at 45 what is that telling you that all of these let's just blow this up so folks can see it better that your three is above your five your five is above your eight your eight's above your 13 and so on and each one is getting points for that.

1:18:31Mike Webster:So you're maxed out up there at 45. And let's look at another one that looks good. VXUS. Give me any stock, any ETF, and just that you think might look completely different so people can get an idea of what it looks like.

1:18:51Justin Nielsen:Putting me on the spot. Okay. So let's do Costco since that was a lot of stock.

1:18:56Mike Webster:Okay. Let's look at Costco. So this is going to be in a unique position because it's coming up from the dead right so let's look at that it had been terrible for such a long period of time but it started turning over there so that was your your you know that was your inflection point as your short-term one started going above it so let's go to the brunswick that we talked about and that's pinned up there nicely what was the other stock Oh, it's Shark Ninja. And again, you know, it turned around over here and started going up. So just another tool to have in your toolbox. Let's go over to Ali's favorite one.

1:19:36Mike Webster:This is just simply your 21 day moving average. And I like to look at your lows versus it when you're above it. Well, our high is underneath it. So that's not a that is not a good look. It's just trying to keep it as simple as possible. That looks bad. That looks bad because your high is stuck underneath it. Whereas IWM looks much better on a relative basis because it's at least trading through it. But as we talked about that, MDY had a better look because it found support there at its 21 day. And if you look at something like a VXUS, this is the one that you want to be going for because it's showing the most strength.

1:20:19Mike Webster:is low as well above that 21 day. And I'll show you another way to see that. And I'll be fast with these because I know we're way past time. And, you know,

1:20:30Justin Nielsen:I can't wait to see what Allie does with that. Allie's going to be like, what happened? I was away for just a little bit and you guys destroyed this.

1:20:40Mike Webster:Oh my God, my chart isn't coming. Hold on, let me try one other thing. and I think my alt tab thing has stopped working and I don't think I can do my, let me try minimizing one other thing to see. Well, you know what?

1:20:55Justin Nielsen:I mean, before you get there, what we can describe right now is certainly one of the things that we've noticed on your WebE RSI is just all of the bricks in the wall that are missing. If you, you know, it just, there's no solid action there. It's, you know, flipping from blue to orange. On the histogram, the line is, you know, absent a lot of times. And so, yeah, the WebE-RSI just described that. It's been really problematic on the NASDAQ and the S &P 500. But again, these other indexes, much stronger. So we lucked out, Justin, because for me to get that to work, I would have to shut down the video.

1:21:35Mike Webster:So we'll have to skip those today. That was probably Allie into my computer somehow. You guys are an hour and 20 minutes. Well, you know what?

1:21:45Justin Nielsen:One more thing to cover before we go, just because I noticed this in the comments and something that we got away from that you and Allie were doing. So just to kind of get people back in the mood, there was usually a song that was chosen. So - Thanks for warning me. You put me on the spot with the Fibonaccis. I had never seen that before with the thing, but do you have something? I have a great one from the comments.

1:22:12Mike Webster:I have one. And you just put me on the spot. Deja Voodoo by Kenny Wayne Shepard, who's doing a new tour of when that album came out in 1995. Going to see him next week. Cannot wait. That's him right there, if you can see. And are you still there? My screens just went all crazy. Yep, I'm here. Okay, I'm having computer problems. But Deja Voodoo. check out that song and what it in it's reminding like reminding me of 2000 you know we've seen this we've seen this before so deja voodoo and it's kind of a play on um voodoo child by the great who if you don't know who voodoo someone in the comments help out justin please okay originally done by jimmy hendrix and then of course the great street stevie ray Yvonne did it.

1:23:04Mike Webster:And then Kenny Wing Shepard does that at the end of every one of the shows. So with that said, Deja Voodoo, what's your song?

1:23:11Justin Nielsen:Well, you know what? I'm going to tag along with Jeff in the comments because he came up with, I think, a great one. Love Hurts by Nazareth. Oh, yeah. The combination of Valentine's Day and the stock market lately. I'm with you there, Jeff. Love Hurts. So I'll fade out with that one, listening to that as we end our discussion here. But thank you very much. You can never fade away, Buddy Holly. So thank you very much, Webby. Everyone enjoy your long weekend. A lot of folks saying, hey, this one was long, but you've got a three-day weekend to digest it. And we will be back with you on Tuesday with our IBD Live show featuring David Ryan as typical on a Tuesday.

1:23:54Justin Nielsen:Thank you very much for watching and have a great weekend, everybody. Happy Valentine's Day. Happy six month birthday to my granddaughter. uh and uh have a great president's day take care everybody

1:24:29Justin Nielsen:Hey, this is Telus Demos. And I'm Miriam Gottfried. We're reporters at The Wall Street Journal and the hosts of WSJ's Take on the Week. It's a weekly show that gives listeners a leg up in the world of markets and investing. From the Fed's moves to market bubbles, we dive into the biggest deals, key players, and business news ahead. If you're looking for more news and tools that you can use to help navigate the markets, consider becoming a subscriber to The Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.wsj.com slash takeontheweek to subscribe now.

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