Growth Lags In Mixed Session; Tesla, Booking, Circle In Focus

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0:25hello and welcome to another episode of the stock market today video where we wrap up the day's action for you my name is justin nielsen i am filling in for alley quorum today but we have our same old ed carson who's joining us he of course is our news editor here at investors Business Daily. How are you doing, Ed? Take a look today at Tesla, which has earnings tomorrow, as well as booking and circle internet. Wonderful, wonderful. So first, let's go ahead and take a look at the markets. It was a very interesting day today, very bifurcated, if you will. We had the NASDAQ composite, which was down four tenths of a percent.

1:02The S &P 500, basically flat. It was up like 0.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 up almost a full percent. What was really interesting, of course, here was that RSP, which is the equal weighted S &P 500, that was up quite a bit, like a 1.27 % gain today. So very interesting there. Let's go ahead and pull up some charts here. Oh, I also meant to mention that the Russell 2000 had a very good day. Of course, this has been kind of suffering quite a bit. And yeah, that was up almost a full percent. So let's start with the NASDAQ. I should also mention that growth took a big hit.

1:46FFTY, for instance, was something we were talking about on the IBD Live show today. This is the Innovator IBD 50 ETF. It was down quite a bit, over 2%, but got support at the 21-day moving average line. But at NASDAQ Composite, we've been talking about how strong this has been. We kind of got some stalling action yesterday. It could have been worse. We did close in the upper part of the range, but what's your take? Yeah, it could have been worse. I mean, look, it wasn't great to see some of those names. Some growth names had really big losses. A lot of them came back. Some did not. you can argue that stepping back, this is probably a positive.

2:27The NASDAQ was getting just a little stretched. I mean, just a little. It wasn't like setting off red flags, but it was the kind of situation where there wasn't much room before it would start flashing those red flags. So a pause wouldn't be the worst. And let's face it, I just want to make it. The next seven days are crazy. We have basically all the big tech giants, you know, Google and Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, just in how much they will talk about spending. We have the Fed. We have the August 1st tariff deadline and then hundreds of other earnings. So, I mean, you know, especially given that growth has had these weird days where growth will lag what is otherwise a generally good market or a lackluster market.

3:09But it just maybe give people some pause about new buys in those areas. But I'd say generally the market's acting pretty well. Yeah. Now, certainly today, it was very, very kind of targeted against tech. I mean, looking at the sector spider funds, the worst performer, of course, was XLK. That was down the full percent. And its equal weighted component, which is RSPT, that was down. you know, a little bit less. So this was what we kept on seeing was it was really very heavily in the growth, the market cap weighted areas, looking at the advancers versus decliners. Again, looking at my own portfolio, it's surprising to see that the advancers on the NYSE, there were about 2000 versus 833 decliners.

4:03So over a two to one ratio there. And even on the Nasdaq, it was 2 ,700 roughly to 1 ,700, according to Thinkorswim. So the breadth was there. Most stocks were doing well. Why did it feel so bad? Because for people who were invested in speculative growth and AI stocks, it wasn't a good day, especially a good morning. Again, some of them came back a bit, and that's fine. And if we bounce back tomorrow, it'll all be forgotten again. But And yeah, it was, that's just the thing. That's just the nature of it. And this is one reason why we talk about maybe not getting so concentrated in a particular theme, if nothing else, because one, it can have you a big drop, but it's also if all your stocks fall, even if individually they look okay, you know, it can be like, well, wait a second.

4:51I just took a 3 % hit to my entire portfolio in about 30 minutes, you know, kind of thing. It's like that isn't necessarily fun. And you might make decisions that you wouldn't want to make on individual names. So it's just a lot of reasons to look for leading stocks in a variety of areas if you can just to minimize some of that. But again, the S &P ended up higher even with a lot of techs in there, even though techs were drags and RRSP was very strong. I mean, RSP had a very good day, which is equal weight. So stripping out some of those mega caps, that's like the best close since, you know, of 2025.

5:31I think QQEW is on the verge of, you know, that was on the verge of a record close as well. Right around there. It's getting very close to things. So it's doing very well as well. So, again, don't want to make too much of it. it just something, hey, that's been the nature of this market. And given all the news that's coming up, that just adds to it. It's just sort of like saying, a wild child, now we're going to put you on a roller coaster. Is that wild child just going to go crazy for a while? It may all work out, but it's just something to note going for the next seven days or so. It's worth mentioning that RSP, we had a very strong day here on the 10th of July, and that ended up being very short lived.

6:17So hopefully this has some legs to it, or it's a move right back to growth, because that's kind of what happened last time when we had kind of that growth get hit, but then it really kind of snapped back. One of the things you were talking about in one of our internal meetings was that, hey, look, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, was speaking this morning, but I think you stressed a number of times he didn't really talk about monetary policy. So you can't really put the blame for the early weakness in the market on his doorstep. There was no real reason. In fact, treasury yields fell today. So if you want to, that's been something that has been a positive for the market the last few days.

6:58So after running up a ways, we've come back to like three week lows on the 10-year treasury yield. Yeah. I mean, it's just, the market has had one of those mornings where growth stocks had a bad morning. I mean, and not a good day. And that's just, when the market goes up or when your stocks go up, you don't look for answers. Why did it do that? I don't understand. There was no news. No, you go like, I'm so smart. I'm amazing. This stock is the greatest. When the stock goes down, it's like, I don't understand. It's like, well, you know, that just sometimes happens on the downside too. Yeah. You never look for answers as to why you're so great at what you do.

7:34Let's talk a little bit about gold because this was, I mean, as I was doing screening today and looking at where the strength was, a lot of gold stocks were coming up on my screen. So is this telling you anything about the defensive nature of what's happening here? You mentioned a lot of headlines that are coming up. You mentioned the 10-year treasury yield being down, the dollar. How is all this affecting gold? And is this something that should be getting more of our attention? Yeah, I thought about making this one of the names. I'll be honest, I don't do very well with these names because it feels like, yeah, I know that this could reverse at any time because if treasury yields spike tomorrow, or if there was some other news, you could imagine the dollar and yield spiking for whatever reason, and then gold tumbles, you know, kind of thing in that scenario.

8:22So, so it may be yesterday was the day to do it. I mean, I think it's, I think you were making the point recently, like maybe it was internally, maybe it was not that, you know, buying it off, buying it off the pullback, you know, or when it pulls back is better because it's like, there is that possibility that this is clearly reacting to sort of like, uh, other things going on and those things, those factors could reverse. So a lot of names were doing very well. So anybody who got into them probably pretty happy. It's just one of those things. They can go on runs. You just have to be, uh, watchful on that, but that goes with any new buy right now.

8:58And when we're talking about precious metals, we shouldn't neglect silver at this point because that has actually looked a little bit stronger than gold. Your thoughts here? Yeah. I mean, if you had bought that back in May, end of May or so, it never really had to sell. And there's been other chances in there. Very strong. This has just been doing very well. And then if we talk about the new gold, the crypto gold, and we will get to, as you mentioned, kind of a little bit of the stable coin with Circle later, Ibit. I do have a position in Ibit myself, but this kind of, you know, had a little bit of a bounce, a little bit of strength today.

9:40Yeah, it's been doing very well. I mean, look, it's it consolidated, made a run, you know, from the lows back in April. Well, then it paused at highs for like, this is, this is classic for like a stock and like a deep base. Then you form a new, new base next to, or just above the prior base. And then you move out. It's like a little safer. And now, so this has been acting, you know, technically it's been very clear. The breakout came on heavy volume. There were just a lot, you know, there was a lot of, it was relatively easy when of course that means I passed it up and didn't buy it, but it was like, uh, but there's definitely a lot of reasons technically that this was showing a lot of strength.

10:15there's been positive news. I mean, that news is in the past, but still, it looks very strong, and there's reasons why, you know, so it's looking very good. I'm Laura Thurow with Baird Private Wealth Management. You've been doing all the right things, saving, investing, building toward your goals. Healthcare can be a major expense today, and an even greater one over time. Tools like long-term care insurance or a smart health savings account strategy can help protect what you've worked so hard to build. Learn more at bairdwealth.com slash WSJ guidebook. Yeah, let's go ahead and take a look at some stocks, unless you had anything else on the news.

10:58No, I think we've talked for a while. Okay, let's start with Tesla and the auto manufacturers, of course. This has been a little bit of back and forth action. What's your take here? We've got earnings coming up. Yeah, I actually was saying this on IbedeeLive. I think this has generally been pretty positive that it's not really moving out because I think if you went above Monday's high, you could sort of have a trend line from the top of this new base. And arguably, I mean, you could probably draw it from almost the top of the huge consolidation or close to it. So I just feel like, you know, right here, you don't want it to go too hard before earnings.

11:34So they put it like sort of like, you know, if it's like a train leaving the station, but you don't, you know, do jump on it, not knowing if there's a bomb on that train. I mean, that's what buying right ahead of earnings is like, because if it goes up, let's say, oh, I missed it, and then it goes up 15 % on earnings. It's like, oh, well, you know, that's just the way it is. I mean, look, chances are on earnings, it'll gap up or gap down, and who knows, it'll end up on the day. But technically, I like where it is. So I think if it makes a strong move, there's here, there's 357, there's other things where you can find a buy point.

12:05Earnings are not going to be good. I mean, there's some wild cards about how Bitcoin will be accounted for and some other things. So there's underlying that there's definitely issues with the EV business that it's hard to get around. It's really going to come down to robo taxis. Elon Musk is going to be bullish. He's always bullish. The question is, how will investors react to that? You know, will they take that? And, you know, so that's generally been what's been driving the stock. And so, you know, you can't look at the fundamentals. You really have to believe in the growth story or believe that others believe in the growth story.

12:38uh and and so but technically i think it's setting up pretty well there is all this over there's it is overhead resistance but i think this is this is in pretty good shape setting up for uh for earnings yeah very good and uh i'm not sure how often you're jumping on trains with bombs on them it sounds like a new liam neeson movie that yeah it does seem like maybe a whole series of them but but yeah it's not but you know that's that's sort of what jumping into earnings is like Okay. Well, while we're in the travel section, then let's take a look at booking holdings, formerly known as Priceline. What's your take here?

13:15Look, honestly, if this wasn't for earnings, I think you could have made a case for buying this today. That volume wasn't great, okay? But it was sort of breaking the downtrend of, I think, a three weeks, four weeks tight if you go to the weekly chart. So it's basically forming this thing right above the prior base. I think sometimes we say three weeks is more add-on. could have done an add-on or you could have done a new position. But again, with earnings coming up, it's like, I don't know if it's that thing. But this has been just chugging along. This is something, this is the kind of stock, again, if you have some high octane speculative names, a bunch of AI stuff, this one is like, yes, this is going to go up and down with the market, but it's probably not going to be as crazy as correlated.

13:54It's not like if AI stocks fall 10%, I don't think booking will have a good day, but it's probably not going to be down for 10%. I'm just imagining. You know, I'm just saying is that, you know, and you can, this one's just been a solid performer. There's definitely other things. This is one of the leaders in the travel space. The RS line is near highs, just a lot to like, especially as a counter is as another option with a lot of other things going on. Right. And it's certainly I feel like the three weeks tight. It's something where when you get that combination of not just a three weeks type, but also kind of that you're letting that 10 week moving average line catch up to it to a degree.

14:33It's a little different, you know, in terms of that extension. Sometimes I can even initiate a position there because it's like, oh, well, well, heck, one more week and it almost feel like a flat base. Exactly. Yeah. And it's sort of like sort of forming a base on top of a sort of a weird looking base. You know, I mean, it was a little deeper, not not super aesthetically pleasing as much. So it sort of serves that purpose. Yeah, absolutely. And let's go ahead and round the discussion out with Circle. This one, it's one we've been watching. A lot of these IPOs have been having some phenomenal moves, but man, they can be wild.

15:11I shared on IBD Live when I was when I was buying this. But unfortunately, I didn't get to share when I was selling it because this thing came right back. And I think it's, yeah, I think my initial entry was around 205, which was great on the way up. But then this really had this ugly reversal. What do investors do now with this? I think investors are bought at 205 or maybe at what it was like 216 or whatever it were. There was like from, there was a couple of early entries you could have tried off of this. I get it. I mean, but you I think when at the very least at round trip, like a 22 or 28 percent gain, depending on what you would treat, you can't do you don't want to let that happen.

15:53I mean, I think you have to take partial profits when you see that reversely, even if sometimes it goes right back up. You just don't want to see a huge gain turn into a loss. And that's I think anybody buying the last few weeks would be down. And you don't want to see that situation just because you can go up. We just saw it. I mean, just saw how it went from almost 300 below 200. in like five or six days. So this already has shown that it might go right back up to 400 in another week. And maybe the action is showing it is finding support at the 21 day line. So maybe it forms a handle. Maybe Friday's high ends up being some kind of early entry or something like a handle.

16:29But I think that people who bought recently, they have to do that. I mean, it's this speculative growth IPO. I mean, it's just wild upon wild. And this one didn't bounce back. It did find support, but it didn't really bounce back. There were a lot of other stocks that came well off lows. This one didn't really do that either. So I don't know what tomorrow brings, but I think that when you have a round trip, you just have to be thinking you have to have banked some profits to make sure that you get out of that trade with a win. Yeah. And to your point, one of the things that one of our colleagues, Scott St.

17:03Clair, says a lot of times on IBD Live when he's on the show is, you know, you can do some selling. He loves to ring the cash register. But on a day like that, where it's a big reversal, you don't have to sell everything. But if you start start in motion, at least and say, OK, I'm going to sell some just in case. And then you let the market tell you if if it goes down. Well, let's that was a good sell. Let me do more of that. And if it goes up, well, at least you're still participating. You can say that was a bad sell, but you still have the bulk of your shares. So you don't do any more of that.

17:35So it really kind of does let the market decide for you. And I wouldn't do necessarily this scaling, but just to be easy, let's say you sold one third for a 10 % gain. Well, even then, even if you don't sell the rest until it's break even, you're still up 3%. I would hope that you would do better in that situation, but you get, it makes it easier to sell because you, then you go like, at least I'm getting out because, but if you, if you do wait, well, maybe it'll bounce back and I'll get a little bit back. It's, it's easier to sell the rest. I think that it's not just that you're going to get a better thing, but I psychologically for me, if I can scale out a little bit, it makes it so much easier to say, you know what?

18:09I made a strong profit on that first batch. Yeah. I mean, I wish I did it, but at least I'm coming out with a decent gain as opposed to, oh man, I should just hang onto it some longer. It'll come back. Right. Right. And so I, again, everybody has their, their psychological triggers. I have so many, but it's just, but, you know, try to find out, but what works for you? It's like, it's like, you have to find the strategy that works for you, but I definitely agree that scaling out is smart for a lot of reasons. Yeah, no, I absolutely agree. I feel like when you get into a trade, you know, we always think about that worst case scenario and how do we, you know, limit our loss?

18:46How do we plan for that? And then once you have a big gain, then I feel like it's kind of, how do I improve my worst case scenario? And as you said, you know, taking some profits, it does automatically kind of improve your worst case scenario because you, you know, you're not going to let it go. Even if you do let it go all the way back to your entry, you still are going to leave the trade with a little bit of a gain. Before we leave, Ed, a few stocks that are reporting earnings. SAP, this is in the, you know, in the software enterprise. It's a German company. It looks like they have come out with earnings, getting a little bit of a hit here today.

19:24It looks like it's down 4 % in the after hours right now. Had a little bit of a move up first and then kind of came in. Yeah, so it looked like it beat views, so I don't know what was in there. And it's also in euros makes it harder, but I think it beat views. I don't know why it's down. We have in Texas Instruments, not one of the leaders in the TXN. That's not one of the chip leaders, but still had been round. It had been teasing a buy point recently and came down. This one's coming down again. I don't know why it seemed like the numbers. Okay. The guidance was in line, but it's down. I, uh, um, intuitive surgical, which has been a leader in the past.

20:02Definitely is not now that's falling after hours. I haven't seen the numbers there. Uh, so, um, in phase, uh, Ian pH, one of the solar plays that one, uh, that one was, uh, I've been trading pretty well. actually you know like or actually was like so some solar stocks have been doing well this one's down pretty sharply and then finally on the upside calm calm calm main the egg producer i haven't looked at the details but this one is moving it was sort of back to a buy point the last time i looked it was it was up like six percent uh you know in after hours so a few names but definitely some of the other names might weigh on things again we have tesla we have google we have service We have a lot of names tomorrow.

20:45So definitely will be a very important time for investors. Yeah. And as a reminder, for those that are trying to keep track of all the earnings, again, there's a deluge. As you mentioned, there's about 200 of the S &P 500 names that will be reporting in the next couple of weeks. So to kind of keep track of that, Ed Carson and Alexis Garcia every Friday do a earnings cheat sheet. A nice wrap up. You want to tell people a little bit about what you go over on those podcasts? Yeah, we go over, we talk about the major earnings. We really put a spotlight on three or four stocks, but then look at a bunch of others and just talk about what to expect, what we're looking for, what investors be looking for, maybe some of the technical analysis for some of the names that are nearby points.

21:30This is probably our biggest one, just because there's so many earnings in the next week and so many companies that are big names. Right. Yeah. It takes a while to get through them all. So, well, thank you very much for the color there. Again, investors, you know, may have gotten some hits on growth today, but tomorrow we'll be covering on IBD Live. What's what's going on? Is there a continuation of that hit to growth? We did come off our lows, but we'll see what tomorrow has in store. So if you haven't taken a trial of that, you can go to investors dot com slash IBD Live for a trial and check us out in the mornings.

22:04We start 10 minutes before the market open and go a full hour and a half plus sometimes, depending on who's hosting, right? Well, thanks a lot for the color there, Ed. Appreciate it. Okay, that's going to wrap it up for us today. Join us tomorrow either on IBD Live or after the close. We'll be right back here at 4 p.m. Eastern Time. And we also will have our podcast, Investing with IBD. I'll be hosting that along with Jason Shapiro as a guest from Crowded Market Report. He, of course, is one of the market wizards. So we will be getting his take on how to identify turns. So hope you join us for that.

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