How To Handle ‘Tale Of Two Markets’ As Nasdaq Weakens; Eli Lilly, Snowflake, Sphere In Focus

24:45And then it would have broken everything else. That would have just been silly. We don't like to do silly things. Or just say, sometimes your rules are not going to work well. Kind of like what we saw from October through the April 8th follow through, where the normal rules, upside reversals, getting back above the 21 day kind of lets you, it just got you chopped up, just to be frank. Think we're going to be kind of in for that right now until things change. As we go through these different dates, you're going to kind of see that. So you can see you're starting to trend above the 21-day and then out of the blue, then you break through the 21-day, break through the 50.

25:24Let's go to the next date.

25:26Mike Webster:Okay. The next date that we're going to go to is in May, 525. And then the same thing here. We were trending above the 21-day. You fall out of bed. You're back underneath the 50-day. Then you got to restart. You get back above the 21 day for three days, and then it rolls over in your face. Let's go out to the next date. Okay. We're going to go to August 8, 10. So this is the time where it was starting to look really good, right? Very normal, natural. You get downside reversal, then you break your 21 day, break your 50 day. And Justin always tells the story about this is the time that he started working with Bill as his assistant.

26:12And Bill put out a memo company-wide on the institutional level to all the institutional clients of William O 'Neill and Company that, hey, things are terrible, bear market and everything. It was very, very negative. And there's nothing wrong with that. The evidence was that with the exception of what some leaders were doing, just pull up Qualcomm because Qualcomm was his baby. During that time frame, it was very much like the SanDisk and the Micron. So this was doing really well, but you can also see on that bad break that it had like five days or, yeah, right there. I mean, that's, how much was it down that day?

26:51Let's see. Eight. Yeah, 8%. And imagine your bill, you know, 200 % long in name, which he would do often. That's not a fun hit. And it was already off the top. So you could see where his mentality was getting that he was being negative. Let's go back to the now. Oh, there you go. So now let's go out to the next date.

27:12Mike Webster:Okay. We're going to go to October. I believe it's the 18th. I'm going to surprise you one of these days, Allie. Maybe. Well, I guess I'm surprising myself with mistyping something. There we go. That's easy. Okay. So again, now this one, then you thought, okay, I'm out of the woods here. We're up at new highs. And then you just roll out of the blue. You come down. You're ready to give up at this point because of the choppiness. High is underneath the 50-day, underneath the 21-day. Let's go to the next date. Okay. There's a point here. There is a point, and we will see it. The point is you have to stay flexible and you have to keep trying because this is what ended up happening.

28:00This was now the beginning of this massive move that we had. And you had to switch gears. And that's what would happen with Bill. He would be very negative when the evidence was saying to be positive, he would be. But he wouldn't plant his heels in the ground and say, I'm bullish and I'm going to just stay bullish no matter what the evidence. He would be flexible, bend like a tree in the wind. Now, this was the beginning of something. Does it look dramatically different than any of the other ones? No, it doesn't. I don't want to hear that it does because it doesn't without using hindsight. It's just sometimes the market just needs time.

28:36You know, there's lots of days in there. If you stopped on, you know, the day that's at its high, closing near the highs, it looks like it's going to start then. Now let's go out to the next date.

28:47Mike Webster:Okay. We're going to go to the end of the year. So 1231. And then look at that massive run. And so if you would have given up, you would have missed out on this. Now, I will say, because I don't say it often, but out of this, there is a point that during this year, I was up 1 ,640 percent, no options, just trading by the book as I interpreted the book. The good thing is I didn't know how to interpret the market properly at the time. So I was just in doing individual stocks. That's the point. I think people right now, as much as I'm the market strategist and all that stuff and I love the market, I think you need to do more individual stocks right now until we start trending nicely again.

29:32Because we can see, let's go out to the next date to see then how this played out. And then we'll circle back to, because I do want to finish with looking at our current market. So this one, you had your run up, was tricky there, and then it ended up rolling, getting, you know, that was the ultimate top right there, the 5-1-3-2. That is your key. You went there again. That is what, when you hit a high, especially if you're parabolic, and then you move up and you're close to those old highs, that is like when I hopped in on IBD Live yesterday or whatever it was, they were saying that that was a gift of if you didn't lighten up, that was the time to lighten up in the microns and the sandists of the world because you were in a very similar position.

30:26Then this ended up falling apart. Let's go out to the next date. And I think that was the last date, I hope.

30:32Mike Webster:Yeah. About six months later, we'll go to 9-29. And this wasn't a special day. It was just to show like what ended up happening. So again, character change. So you always want to pay attention to character changes. So with that in mind, let's go to our current market. it. And so the thesis on here, and you just have a thesis until proven right or wrong, that is very much like what happened from October to our gap up fall through day that we had on, I think, April 8th, that the same type of thing that was happening in 1999, I think the same thing could happen now. Doesn't mean it has to last as long as that did, or what we saw in 99, but you just wait for that character to change.

31:24And how do you know? The basics. Just are you above your 21 day or not? Is your high underneath it, you know, or is your low above it? Those are on the most basic level which you want to look for for the character. So just be, that was a very long way, 31 minutes way of saying, just be careful out there. Be flexible and just expect more of this choppiness until things work themselves out. I will say with the new Fed chief in there, I listened to his conference several times. I am very confident with what I saw. I love studying the Fed and very confident that what he's doing is good for the long term of the FOMC.

32:13In the short term, you might have some turbulence. Most likely, you know, they're going to have to raise a couple times this year. The market knows that. That's not a big surprise. But I think all the changes that he's going to make, I'm hoping that at some point he's going to say no more press conferences unless there's something major to talk about. And then going to continue to have smaller and smaller press releases and then change the way that they're looking at data. So it seems like he's doing a lot of the right things, but I don't suspect that that's going to happen overnight. But, you know, and rest in peace, Alan Greenspan, you know, great that he made it to 100.

32:51And what a great Fed chief he was. Was he perfect? None of them are. But, you know, that we could have another really good one right now. At least that's what the evidence shows. Only one meeting, though. We'll see. I give them an A++ for that meeting.

33:09Mike Webster:That is notable because we know that you study in detail all of the press conferences, releases, all the all the feds speak. You're dialed in. But I don't allow it to impact my trading. So it's more big picture to just kind of understand. And it's like a hobby. But look, whatever the market actually does dictates what I'm going to do. not if I like the Fed or I hate the Fed, but it makes you feel more comfortable if you have someone in the driver's seat who you have confidence in. And right now, unless you have a negative bias against him for some reason, if you had an objective open mind, go back and listen to his hearings in front of the Senate, as well as when he spoke there at the press conference with an open mind.

34:02I don't think anyone could make a valid argument that he's anything other than very competent. Well, I would say in the realm of potential catalysts for the market, of course, you have geopolitical things, you know, big tech, you know, notable shifts there.

34:22Mike Webster:And then the Fed, right, that's sort of another pillar of potential market moving actions, right? We've seen that unfold time and again. So having that awareness, I think, is key. But like you said, interpreting what the market is actually doing is what's ultimately important. So, yeah. And we've got like kind of good things to come because it looks like the market is just anticipating a few rate hikes. Right. And so if the data starts coming in, if, you know, things completely resolve themselves with the straits and everything where an inflation or that the fears of inflation continuing up. If those subside, they might be able to not do anything or only do one, and that would really help the market out.

35:11And, of course, long-term interest rates and stuff are moving in the right direction now. So we'll see. The backdrop is still very bullish, but in the very short term, we have these challenges.

35:24Mike Webster:Yes. Deal replaces fragmented payroll vendors with one global system. No third parties. Hire, manage, and pay teams in 150-plus countries.

35:39All right.

35:41Mike Webster:Good stuff there, Webby. Let's talk about a few individual names, adding more color to the picture. Here's Eli Lilly, which I do own. We've covered this a lot recently, and there is a reason. It's not just on our radar today, up 7%. Over the last couple of weeks, We did highlight, of course, the earnings report, but it wasn't in position at that time. You really started seeing this relative strength unfold over the last couple of months. We've really been hitting hard that rotation into health care, medical, pharma, etc. And this is one of the big, you know, giant gorillas in the space. Skinny gorilla?

36:29Mike Webster:I don't know. I like that. I don't know. But what a move today. So talk to the audience a little bit about how this is very emblematic of the rotation. And you talked about this on IBD Live this morning, really before it started accelerating. You know, this is one of the first stocks that we covered as being viable this morning. Yeah. So we put it on Swing Trader. And then after that time was up, I bought it. Let's go to the weekly. I was hot and heavy on this back, you know, a while back out of that last, not this large base, but the prior one. And it didn't end up working out. And I said at the time that I thought that that's where Bill would have been in, heavy in.

37:20And I think he would have been. And I think he would have gracefully gotten out or gotten out, gracefully or not. then he would be getting back into it. And so when I look at this, you know, you look at those big numbers at the bottom, our quarterly block down there, that looks solid. You look in the top left corner, you've got solid numbers there as far as the estimates. This looks like the beginning of something. You know, so the SanDisk or the Microns of the world, let's say they double from here. Let's say they've topped. You know, that's a whole different game that you're going to play. hey, this looks like it's at the very beginning of something.

37:59And so that's where I'm looking for is things that could have a lot of legs. Now, if you have low-cost basis like you do in a sand disc, then you're playing it different. But I was always kind of out of position with that, so I didn't have the low-cost basis that you need to let it wiggle and wobble and use a quick sand Grateful Dead on it. This, I think, is quality. You do have the risk of whenever you're dealing with a biotech that you can get news out of D.C. that messes with you. You can get news out of a competitor that can mess with you. So it takes on extra risk. But I think one way to play it is through like an IBB, which I have a position in as well, or an XBI, which I have a position in as well, if you don't want that individual stock risk.

38:46But both of these look like they're at the beginning of something, not late in the move. Pull up a DRAM, for example, which is the memory space.

38:56Mike Webster:Huge difference. Yeah, that's this monster move that's already gone up. And even if it ends up making it up to 200, the risk in there is just different than these. Because let's go back to the lily on a daily. The good thing about this is, you know, like let's say you're comparing it to. And I'm sorry to keep going back to a SanDisk, but it's kind of the poster child for this market. Just like if we were in 99, we'd be talking about Qualcomm. With that, it's going to take a lot of action before you know that if it's broken or not. This one, you know, going back to the Lilly, yeah, because the SanDisk, it could go down a lot and still recover.

39:37The SanDisk, it shouldn't really take out today's low at all. You know, it really shouldn't and still be normal. Now, maybe on an interday basis, if you get some weird news in the market, everything's hit, but it shouldn't close underneath that. So your stop on there is so much closer. Now, if you want to give it some more room, you can give it down to your red line, the $1 ,100. There's nothing wrong with that as long as it's within the risk management that you've got that it's not too big of a loss on there because it was up 7 % today. So that is a long way down from here. But this is the type of merchandise that I'd rather be playing with.

40:14And I still think that it's viable, even though it's extended on a risk reward. I think you just do the position size appropriately. Mm-hmm.

40:25Mike Webster:Yeah, I was adding a little bit to it today. And I think that the 7 % gain here is notable. This is a stock with an ATR of about 3.4%. Your thoughts on thinking about today's move in that context? That's a great point, right? Because what we should have and will have at some point in there, instead of that it's up 7 % on the day, that it's up two ATRs or two point whatever or one point whatever ATRs, think of it in terms like that, because that's really what your eyes are seeing, right? This is an abnormally large move because all the other bars look like this, and then you're up 7%. Now, if you're looking at something else, that 7 % is nothing.

41:10Like if it's an ATR and 15 or something, then 7 % is a small move. So it just adds more meaning to things. So I'm trying to just completely get away from percents and totally move over to ATRs. But it's hard because I'm an old dog and it's a new trick. So we'll see.

41:31Mike Webster:Yeah. All right. Thanks for that, Webby. Let's go over to Snow. We have seen also a rotation into software, but definitely not as straightforward. But a little bit of momentum here for Snowflake. You had a move of almost 10 % today, a couple of weeks ago, late May timeframe, that big gap up on earnings, a lot of momentum, perhaps disappointing in the short term to see it filling some of that gap. But it did find support at the 21-day Webby. Today does look like a day to be taking action here for those who were interested in getting exposure to this space. Yeah, so we put this on SwingTrader and I have a position in that I bought after that.

42:20I think you set it up perfectly. The risk on this is dramatically higher than the risk on Lilly, even though Lilly is a biotech, because this is still in the tech space. And the check is what is they can kind of all get lumped together. If like the queues sell off, you know, it kind of brings a lot of this with it. But I do love how it got support there at the 21 day. Yesterday was kind of a tell that it was starting to get support there. You had you shook out below the lows, which is one of the key things. Like if if I only did one trade ever, it would be an upside reversal, you know, undercutting something and then closing up.

43:02That wasn't a super powerful one yesterday because it didn't take out the high from the prior day. But still, that was a setup. And then it continued that today. So I think it looks really good. Let's go to the weekly on this. This one, when it went public, it seemed like it was getting a lot of big sponsors were in there. But then it just fizzled out. And it kept on looking like it was going to come back. And it has been a total dog. But that happens with a lot of IPOs where they're just not ready for one reason or another. Sometimes it's the market environment. Sometimes it's the sector. Sometimes things just need to click.

43:42This is a classic-looking deep cup with handles. So Pat and Rec can't pick it up because it appears to be too deep. But this is, on a weekly basis, having kind of an outside week, upside reversal after it broke through the 200-day. this is how model book stocks start. That doesn't mean it's going to be one. But if looking at this one, if it, you know, my eyes go and say, okay, this is a$500 stock. And I'm not talking my book just because I have a position. I'll blow it out in a second if it doesn't end up working out. But that's what you want to start training your eyes to was what would be normal and natural on here and, you know, 500 on its way up to 800 would be normal and natural because it's been going sideways for so long.

44:31And at the same time, you've got good revenue numbers in there, you know, coming in steadily in the 20s and 30s for some time. So we will see how this one lays out.

44:43Mike Webster:We sure will. Okay. We also want to circle back to Sphere in a roundabout way. let's all gather around and talk about this. Yes. We'll keep it in the circle of things. So that wasn't as good as yours, but look, we were trying to decide between a few different ones. And I went with sphere because my parents are going to go. My mother is turning 80 this July, my dad, 81. And they were talking about where they were going to go. And they're going to go. Cause they keep on hearing me talk about the sphere. They're going to go see Kenny help me out. Log? No, not logins. Chesney? Yeah. Okay. Country.

45:26Country. So they're going to go see him. Marcus King is as country as I get, you know, maybe a Chris Stapleton. But this is kind of out of position. I do have a position in it that I bought today. This is not your textbook buy, but what it's telling you is some non-direct AI. I'm sure there's AI involved with all the video that they've got going on in there. But it's not, you don't think, oh, I'm going to trade sphere because of the AI or trading sphere because of the entertainment aspect of it. And that's what Bill was big in. He was big in discounters, things that would save you money, like a price company, Costco, think of, you know, or a Dollar Tree or 99 cent store, those types of things.

46:08Or medical. Yeah. Or leisure. And it was, you know, those were the Brunswick back in the day, you know, that. So it's basically medical, leisure or tech is where he would end up going. And so it's nice to just see that, you know, stocks like this just acting normal and natural and very strong. And again, if it closes underneath today's low, then you know that there's something wrong with this one.

46:36Mike Webster:So and that's right around that 160 level. But I think what's been really great about this and why we've covered it so much is just how well it's been trending. And, you know, you take a look at that support at the 10-week line, that beautiful outperformance with the relative strength line there. And the fundamentals, you know, we've seen an improvement there as well. But a lot of technical strength here, perhaps a little bit lumpy from an estimate standpoint. But if you want conviction in a stock, this is one that you can definitely achieve that if you go and have that experience for yourself, it sounds like Webby.

47:18Yeah. I mean, so I've gone a couple of times, blown away beyond belief. It was dead in company both times. Can't wait to go back. I'm hoping to see Metallica this fall. I'm just trying to figure out my schedule around that. But I think they're playing again in January of the following year. Everyone should go see it. But the reality is Bill would not be trading the stock. Just like Sandisk early on, I think I was saying that he wouldn't have been trading because the earnings were negative. That was a big deal for him. If you didn't have positive earnings, it was a no-go. So if someone who's very old school IBD methodology is looking at this and saying, why are you looking at this?

47:59It's got negative four cents earnings last quarter. Don't worry about it. Don't trade it. Avoid it. Because if you don't have the conviction in it, you know, trading off of a story or sales or things like that, you don't have to trade all of those. But you are going to miss things. But that's fine. And Bill would miss things all the time. But you just need to know, like, how do you want to trade? So that's the thing that it has going against it is, you know, just from a business stance, there's a reason why the tickets are so freaking expensive. I wish that they could figure out a way to make those more reasonable.

48:33But, man, it's an expensive thing to build.

48:37Mike Webster:Sure is. One last thing on this, and then we'll move on, is that look at that RS line, the blue line there, and then look at your Grateful Dead signal, which is your blue moving average of there. It's held above that the whole time. So that's the power of using that strategy that even if you get wiggled and wobbled out of some of your position, if you're a position trader, not a swing trader, and you're using something like this, let's say you don't like to be as active as I am. and you want to do things from a position standpoint, you can sit back and look at the weeklies or even the monthlies, as we discussed on IBD Live this morning.

49:16Mike Webster:Exactly. So this is the 21 EMA. We'll also just discuss all three briefly. So we've got the 8, the 13, and the 21. Yep. On the weekly there. All right, Webby, time for your charts. Okie doke. Let's give this a shot. Stop my share. Okay, let's see.

49:39I'm trying. I'm slow.

49:41Mike Webster:You're good.

49:46Oops, I think I'm sharing the wrong one. Let's see.

49:52Can you see it? I can't. I'm trying to get the right one on there, and it's giving me problems. Hold on. Let me try it a different way.

50:00Mike Webster:Okay. Oh, not the time I wanted that to not work. Okay, let me switch over and I'll just go, I'm going to do the other ones because I don't know. I got an error message right before we went live and I didn't have time to redo this. So let me try this one more time. I can always find a way to stall while you figure those charts out, but we'll start with these. Yeah, we'll start with these and then I'll try that other thing. Okay, so this is the, let's go to SPY first. So this is the Bob Marley off high indicator. This is telling you, this is concerning you, right? Because the last time we came down, we came down to this level here, which is a little bit over four ATRs.

50:43TRs. So that becomes our marker or a line in the sand that we don't want to go underneath that. So the first time we came down to right here where that orange line is, and then it was like, okay, if we break that in any material way, you got a change in character. That's what happened here. And you didn't know how low it was going to go until it stopped going down. And that was right here. Now we're back at that same level, basically telling you that this needs to, through this lens that it stopped right there and it needs to turn and go back up almost immediately for this to be normal and natural.

51:21We will see how that plays out. Let's look at the NASDAQ. And the NASDAQ has some ways that it can go down, you know, because it can get all the way down here to five ATRs and still be in line with that last time. We don't want that to happen, but That's how you interpret this. Let's look at something like RSP to have that standpoint. So this one, you know, it's still well up there, but it could come into this level and still be normal and natural. Let's toggle over to what happened there. Okay, here's our WebE-RSI, and this is just our low versus the 21-day express in ATRs. And over here, you can see the orange on here.

52:04So what does that mean? That means our low is not above it. Our high is underneath it. You do not want to see orange on there, just like what we saw over here. That can really build on itself. So you want to be careful and cautious when you see the orange on there. And that's why, you know, everything we were talking about earlier. Now let's take a look at the NASDAQ. That's even worse. You're already up to a one ATR, meaning your high versus a 21-day is one full ATR underneath there. That is not a good thing. it can get worse. We just have to be realistic. Now let's take a look at the RSP. And then that one is looking great, right?

52:45Let's take a look at IWM. Great on a relative basis. And then here we've got the IWM. Again, I have positions of both RSP and the IWM. So let me stop sharing. I'm going to restart my trade station. I'm going to give it a shot. I'm going to shut this down. While we do that, you're going to tell us about what Chloe did while I was away.

53:05Mike Webster:Oh, man. It was a big couple of weeks that you missed, Webby. Oh, man. Really? A big update. She's getting married? Oh, no. Oh, I didn't miss that much. A ton of milestones, though. But also, I'm thinking about the XMAG ETF, too, while you were showing, you know, like the RSP and the IWM and things like that. But, you know, it's just with the weakness in the mega cap, something for folks to look up on their market search charts after this. But Chloe, man, last couple of weeks, we've been busy. She's been hitting so many milestones. So she can now go from all fours to sitting, sitting to her belly.

53:52Mike Webster:She's rolling like crazy. She's been rolling, though, but she's just mobile. She's pulling up. She wants to walk. She wants to stand. And she started crawling. So yeah, so a lot of I know I'm like, where did my baby go? She's moving all around. It's so cute. And her biggest motivation for moving, you know, is getting all sorts of toys out and this and that. A basket of her books. She was hoofing it. She's such a little bookworm. It's adorable. we read books to her often and she loves turning the pages so the books were the big motivation to get the crawling to happen uh she is also now eating three meals a day so yeah so she's eating real food she's a vegan and all i hear she's not a vegan uh but yes she is eating real food so it's like, man, I have to feed this thing, you know, something other than milk.

54:54Mike Webster:Keep talking. It's trying to load. The meal prep. So meal prepping. And yeah, so she's learning to eat. She also is learning a lot of different words and associations. One thing that she does that's pretty cute is, you know, she'll drop something and she says, oh, oh. So, you know, like, so she knows. Uh-oh. You know, if you drop something, she has a picture of a – and stop me whenever. I'm still stalling for you. No, I'm still – keep going. I'm almost there. We have, you know, a picture painting of like a dog and a cat in her playroom. And so we'll say, where's the dog? And she'll look and, you know, say woof, woof.

55:40Mike Webster:And, yeah, she knows quite a few words. It's pretty adorable. Well, that is wonderful to hear. And I'm going to have to listen back to hear all that stuff again, because I was like frantically trying to go into task manager and get this. Can you see my stuff now? Yes, we got it. We good? I don't know if this is going to have all my updated markings that I spent all day on, but we'll see. Okay. So this is the Bob Weir take a step back, looking at the weekly candles on here to paint the mosaic. What do you see on here? You've got a nice bottom wick on here, but you've got a bad candle. The body itself is really wide, looks like even wider than over here.

56:25This looks like a candle in the middle of a base building period. So what do you expect from that? Well, either down or sideways, an inside wick would be ideal there. Let's look at the NASA composite. it. Same basic thing here, but a worse candle because that bottom wick is just tiny, meaning you closed very much near the lows there. Not a good look. Let's go over to the regression lines. That was the most important thing that I wanted to discuss today. So we anchored this in on here. And yesterday I spoke on IBD Live and I misspoke because I hadn't updated the dates on there. So this state here where we're anchored is 617, so 50 trading days.

57:14So what does this mean? At this point, we're throwing this out because now we're living underneath the one standard deviation underneath a regression line for too long. This is really an art. I mean, I could like keep it another day or two, but really it's best to kind of throw them out and then look for a new trend. So from the standpoint of the regression, it's kind of done, which goes along with the, you know, what we have been talking about before as far as the character change. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ and the same thing here. Again, why do I throw these out? When your high ends up being underneath that solid green line, which is your minus one standard deviation versus your regression line, it's telling you that it's no longer in that channel.

58:05It's out of there for so long that you don't want to justify, you know. And that's a lot of why I use these things is because they become black and white. And then you don't want to have this positive bias and just, you know, just keep on making excuses. The channel is broken. And so this one for sure is dead. Doesn't mean the market's going to fall apart. It just means it's a change in character. Let's see if the old one stayed or not because I had done the NASDAQ earlier back to 1999. Let's see if we can get there. Sorry for all that visual because I know it's hard on the eyes. No, we'll try circling back to that.

58:52It's going to take me a little bit of time. We'll go to the other ones first. This is the 50 % retracement. So I'm looking at it a couple different ways. One from the SPY I'm doing, the bigger picture of looking at before our gap up, so here on April 7th, up to our recent highs and saying, are we in the northern hemisphere or not? And we are. We're up above the 709.95, which is your midpoint there. So that is looking good. From the NASDAQ, I decided to slice it a different way, and you could do both of them the same way the SPI and this one, using our recent highs and our recent lows. And with that, we're definitely living in the southern hemisphere.

59:36So from this lens, looking a little closer at it, you're in a very weak position. So that's why you want to look at both of them. So the reality is, going back to the Spy, we really want to live even closer to up here, because then that would work on slicing it both ways. Now let's look at the next one. Okay, here are the levels. We'll start with Spy. Good, it did save my levels. On here, no, it didn't save all of them. Shoot. So with this, we broke through. Well, actually, that was a bad print. So it looks like it's a bad print across the board. It didn't really undercut over there. So it's still in this area.

1:00:21The line in the sand that we really want to stay above are really the lows from April 23rd. And then the highs from, if we bring this down here, really the highs from around January 28th or so. And certainly this line in the sand, which is the low from April 8th, we don't even want to get close to that. But you always want to have the final line in the sand so you don't rationalize if it keeps coming down. So with this, we've got some green lines on there. That's basically saying that those are the areas that we want to get through on the upside. So this one is the low from just recently here.

1:00:59What was the date on that? The 22nd. So we, or I'm sorry, the 17th. We want to get back above that. And then we want to get it back above the highs from the 16th. And certainly we don't, you know, same basic thing. This is the high from January 28th. And then the main line in the sand is the April 8th there. And let's see this next one. Excuse me. So my thing went away as far as my indicator, but this is still the different moving averages. and they are going in the direction that you don't want to see. Oh, that's the Qs. Let's look at SPY. So same thing there. Not looking good, but not looking horrible.

1:01:47It can get a lot worse, but we certainly want to see this white line, which is our current market, back above all of these over here, which can happen in a blink of an eye. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. And then the same basic thing there. Let me try to mess with that chart because there was something on the regression line that I wanted to show from 1999. If you can give me just a minute to see if I can get myself together here. So just one sec. I wish they had a better change date. But what are you going to do? So you can just stall. You can sing a song. You know,

1:02:31Mike Webster:I sing a lot of children's songs these days. But there we go. Okay. Yeah. So this is the time frame that we were looking at. So this was the 1999 in there. And just look at this, you know, similar time where, oh, wait, that was the, hold on a second. The time after. Yeah. The first one, right? The first one, yeah. Over here. It came out of it. Yeah. Yeah. So right here, it feels like we're in this area, which basically is telling us that we had this nice channel, this power that came up off the bottom. And then you were trending. This one was trending longer and nicer than what we did recently.

1:03:16But then when you broke it and your high was starting to live underneath that one standard deviation, that's where you had to throw it out. And this was the point that I was wanting to make on here is it didn't fall apart. It just changed its character. And it was in a general uptrend, but in a very choppy uptrend. So something to be very careful about. So sorry that that took so long to get to that. But what are you going to do? It's live, you know. It's like Saturday night live. Things happen.

1:03:46Mike Webster:Yeah, Friday afternoon live. There you go. Yeah, we ad lib and we do it on the fly. One thing I want to say before I forget, because I was paranoid that I was going to forget, the WWW is finally here. Allie, what is that? Yes, the weekend Webby Walk? The West Coast. West Coast. WC. I know, but I'm just doing the WWW because, you know, why not? Because I can make up my own rules. That's what Chris tells us all the time. So the West Coast Webby Walk, first time, Hermosa Beach, this Sunday, 8 a.m. We are going to meet at the statue in front of the pier. You'll see it there. It's a surfer. Come join us.

1:04:29We've got lots of people. Charles Harris is going to be there. Justin is going to be there. Dave Hatman is going to be there. Ken is going to be there. I'm forgetting so many people. Alex Marenko is going to be there. What I'm very excited about, Mike Ash, who if you haven't watched my episode, on him. Please watch it before Sunday. He was a quadriplegic after a terrible accident, and he's going to be there walking with us. So if that's not uplifting to you, I don't know what in the world would be. So please watch that episode. I forget what number it is, but it's called Reframing Tragedy. And it will change your life, change the way you look at life.

1:05:09It did for me and lots of other people that I just can't remember. Rachel was going to come, but she's feeling under the weather right now. You were going to come, but you're on the other coast. So we'll have to do an East Coast walk. There we go. One day.

1:05:22Mike Webster:Yeah, I'll be there in spirit for sure. Oh, and my parents. I've had major FOMO. There you go. My parents are going to bring Candy, their dog. So you've got to come. I thought you were that funny. Oh, not Candy. Like Candy is the name of their dog. And then my sister is going to come. So there are a million other people that I'm just forgetting who's who community gathering. Yep. I can't wait to see pictures. Don't forget. Don't forget to take pictures, group pictures. Post them on X. I want to see them. So if you forgot any of those details, just go to my X Twitter. It's M Webster 1971. And that information will be there.

1:06:11Yeah.

1:06:12Mike Webster:Well, we had a lot of live viewers today, Webby, and someone was asking where it is. Redondo. No, Hermosa. Hermosa. Hermosa Beach. I always get, sorry. They're very close. Hermosa. Hermosa. Yeah. All right. Okay. Good stuff. So just to tie things in a bow, we painted the picture. What should we be focusing on for the week ahead? I feel like we gave folks a lot of information to arm themselves with. Yeah. Character change, with the rotation. The most important thing that I would look for would be, are the things that our money is rotating into, specifically medical. More so than like, look, if the home builders don't work out, no big deal.

1:07:01I don't see that like changing the market in any big way. But the money is flowing into the medical space as well as or certainly more on the drug than just the broad medical space. So in the bios as well as the large, large cap ones there. If that rolls over, like if you see a lily break down on Monday, then that kind of tells you what does it tell you? It tells you that the big players are saying anything that's up, it's a whack-a-mole market. If anything that's up, if they want to just sell it off hard, that's not the type of environment you want to be in. You want to be even lighter in there.

1:07:38So you want to see, even if you're not in them, you want to see follow through in on the rotation. We saw some money moving into the cybersecurity area. That would be nice for that to continue. But if that fell some on Monday or early next week, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Of course, we're going into another three-day weekend. So that always makes things a little bit more complicated when it's U.S.-based only. It just brings on more risk. But that's what I would watch. I would see if on the NASDAQ if we're going to end up undercutting those lows or not. I mean, I could see we get negative news over the weekend.

1:08:18Best case scenario would be a gap through those lows. I wouldn't really want to see it, but it really would be a gap down upside reversal, double bottom. That would be very classic. So just be careful the first part of Mondays. Always remember that in a good market, in a healthy market, on balance, you're going to start off weak and end strong. So that's just a blanket statement. There's always, you know, if you have a setup day where it should move higher the next day, then you kind of change that around. But as a general rule, weak openings, strong closes are good. Healthy market reverse is negative.

1:08:58So that's what I would be looking for. And I would stay spread out and make sure that this weekend, if you're in a bunch of high flyers or maybe in some of the ones that rolled over and haven't been coming back, do an exit strategy on all of them. Write yourself an email with, OK, if this happens, I'm going to do this. than when the bullets are flying in the battlefield. You can go back to that email that you wrote when your mind was clear, like on a weekend. Now, just even wait until Saturday or Sunday to write it. There's no need to do it today. Wait. And it does, the weekends do help a lot because it allows you to kind of process things rather than you're in the battlefield.

1:09:39You kind of have to kind of calm down, look at a bunch of charts and get a sense for things.

1:09:46Mike Webster:Great guidance, Webby. Have fun on the West Coast Webby Walk. Enjoy it. All right. Great show. Thanks, Webby. Thanks, everyone, for tuning in. That's it from us for this week. Hope you have a great weekend. We'll be back with more Monday morning on IABD Live. Investors.com slash IABD Live for all the details starting 10 minutes before the opening bell. We'll see you there, and then we'll see you Monday after the close, everyone.

1:10:42Mike Webster:Thank you. now and delivers insights to help them predict what's next. ReliaQuest, agentic defense for the enterprise. Learn more at ReliaQuest.com. That's R-E-L-I-A-Q-U-E-S-T.com.