Indexes Fall But Hold Support. MP Materials, Futu Holdings, Palantir In Focus.

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0:40Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Thursday, September 25th. It's Alexis Garcia here. And stocks extended their slide today but held ground at some key areas. that trading action coming in the wake of some better-than-expected economic data clouding the picture for future Fed rate cuts. And here with me to break down everything you need to know about today's trading action, well, it's better-than-expected IBD News Editor Ed Carson making his appearance once again. Ed, what's on tap for us today? Yeah, I just have to keep those expectations low. I just want to let you look at MP Materials, Futu Holdings, and Palantir.

1:23All right. Well, we'll get to those stocks first, but let's check in on the major indexes and see how they finished. The S &P 500 down half a percent today. The Dow down about four tenths of a percent. The Nasdaq finishing the day down half a percent as well. And small caps down over one percent today. So, Ed, as I get the screen share up, you know, we've seen three straight days of declines here, I think leaving some investors wondering if there's a bigger pullback coming. So what are your thoughts on the overall market? Yeah, it's a little tricky right now. I mean, on the one hand, you can see the market, all the major indexes found support at the 21-day line, either coming right down to it or almost to it, bouncing off of that, generally closing near-session highs, but not at the absolute highs.

2:12On the other hand, the day before, they were all finding support at the 10-day line. So just because you find support at a level on one day doesn't mean it will continue. I mean, ultimately, I mean, in a week or two, it'll be obvious. Oh, this was the bottom. We went surging high or, oh, this was just a blip. Look, we went down to 6 ,000 on the S &P. But you have to deal with what's going on right now. Right now, the market is still pulling back. At the same time, bulls are showing support. It's a very mixed message. And, you know, so it's not at all clear what may be obvious later and what, you know, you might make decisions that work out great.

2:44You might make decisions. You go, gosh, I wish I hadn't done that. But you have to just ultimately follow your rules, not necessarily expecting to be 100 percent right, but that you are making the generally right decisions over the long term. So everything looking, as Mike Webster would say, normal and natural to you here so far? Yeah, normal and natural. I mean, the thing is, some of the growth leaders, some of them were really extended and some of them came off. and even they often found support. So it is normal and natural. The problem is, it's sort of like, it's normal for there to be heavy snow in the winter.

3:22And I mean, it's like, you know, there's heaviest rains in the spring. It's like normal doesn't mean it's like something that you really want to be part of or that you can't at least be acknowledged there's issues. It is normal right now. It could be worse. You know, like if it falls through the 21 day line, you could see a lot more damage to charts. You know, if it went through the 50 day line, that would be terrible. But right now, this is fine. So it's a delicate balance about not being too aggressive, not being too passive. These are tricky because it's not clear what the market is doing right now.

3:54Let's check in on the NASDAQ composite, Ed. This one, kind of the same idea here, coming off intraday lows, but looks like just below this 10-day moving average. Yeah. And so the same kind of thing here. Didn't quite get to the 21-day line. I think maybe taking a look at the five-minute chart just to show how that came well, you know, sold off right at the open. Bought them very quickly. Came back and for a while they were looking like, hey, we're going to go positive. This is going to be the greatest day ever. You know, and then it's just like, ugh, sort of slid back down. Almost in lows. We rallied again.

4:28So, you know, again, you know, it's not clear what's going on. It's nice that the bulls a couple of times showed support. They came in there, but it's not like they, you know, showed their dominance once again over the market either. So it's still a little bit of a bit of a roller coaster day today. And let's just quickly check in on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I'll switch back to the daily here. Thoughts on this, Ed, you know, again, flirting with this 21 day line, but finishing slightly off those lows. Yeah, a little bit off lows. The Dow and the Russell, I think, didn't finish closer to their intraday lows than the NASDAQ and S &P.

5:07So that wasn't great. But they're still above those levels. The Russell swings up more up and down. So while it had the bigger loss, that's not really that surprising either. Its recent uptrend continues for the Russell. And let's check on the RSP because that has been kind of a concern for us through this rally here. Today, down more than eight-tenths of a percent testing this 50-day line. So tell me your thoughts on this and what it's saying about market breadth. A few things. One is that, you know, while, yes, we were paying attention to some real high flyers, they had some sell-offs and some bounce and everything.

5:42The fact is you strip out some of the stuff, and this is like sort of like non-tech mega cap, you know, real thing. And so it's just not the same situation. And it's down testing the 50-day line. And really, part of it's not so much because part of it's because since late August, even before today, it hadn't really gone anywhere from late August. When it hit like one, you know, yeah, right there, it's basically flat, which is fine. But if you go back to the S &P 500, especially from early September, the S &P, that was taken off. You know, that was taking off from, you know, it sort of tested there.

6:12But from there, there was a real nice rally. RSP didn't really have it. So it didn't really have any cushion over the 50-day line. It wasn't like RSP's drop was that terrible. Yeah, it was worse than the S &P. But the real thing is that it didn't have the cushion, you know, in that respect. So that's all. And you can see that the RS line has been lagging consistently, which isn't that much of a shock, but you'd like it to hold the 50-day line. And let's look at QQEW. That's the NASDAQ 100 equal weighted index. Again, this one clawing back some losses today, but down for the day, six tenths of a percent at that 10-day moving average.

6:52Yeah, this one actually looks pretty good. I mean, it didn't have the big advance, maybe others, because it was lagging below the 50-day line for a while. But since those last few weeks, it's doing pretty well. It really was almost at highs until, you know, as of yesterday. So this one was sort of in line. This definitely looks better than RRSP, which is a switch from three or four weeks ago. And let's take a look at the 10-year Treasury yield. Ed, we had some economic data come in today, maybe suggesting or complicating the picture for rate cuts here. And this up six-tenths of a percent today.

7:26But we've seen the Treasury yield spiking back up here, or at least inching back up near the 4.2 level, Ed. So thoughts here? Yeah. I mean, so far, it hasn't really hit the market. I don't think this really had much impact on things. But, yeah, a lot of economics which are stronger. And really the trend since the Fed cut rates has been stronger than expected data. And today was especially so. And that's what we had in late 2024. And Treasury yields surged on that. They also surged on Trump's election and some other things. But it wasn't a guarantee. Fed cutting rates, again, if the economy is strong and inflation is still elevated, cutting rates doesn't mean that long-term rates will fall, especially given how much they had fallen in anticipation of Fed rate cuts.

8:13So tomorrow will be important. We've got the Fed's favorite inflation report. I don't think people thought it was going to be that important because, again, we have so much time before another rate cut. But now it's going to be like, well, with this other economic data, I mean, the inflation figures, if they show any kind of getting hot, it's like, well, what are we doing here cutting rates? If the economy is still in pretty good shape and the inflation's high, I mean, that could change the calculus and they might slow down like the Fed did in late last year. All right. Well, let's take a look at some sector ETFs.

8:47We were talking about growth stocks. Let's check in on the IBD50 ETF. That's FFTY. This went down 1.2 % today and dipping below that 21-day line, but Cline, it's way back above. So again, Ed, we talked about a lot of these names have been extended, possibly waiting for a pullback here. So thoughts here on the chart action? Yeah, this really shows you, if you wanted to read it as negative, it's like, well, look, we've fallen pretty significantly for three straight days. If you want to look at it positively, hey, we had a nice bounce today. So again, it really just depends what comes next. I mean, it's like, if we fall 2 % tomorrow, will anybody be looking?

9:28Yeah, don't you remember that moment in Thursday morning when we bounced? It's like who cares at that point? I mean, so it really does come to what happens next. You can read it either way. there are some things that are setting up, and some of the stocks we'll look at, they're setting up. Well, a couple of them are setting up, but it doesn't necessarily mean you could easily see them looking much weaker with a little bit more weakness in the market. All right, let's take a look at CHIPS. This is SMH, the Van X Semiconductor ETF. This one, pretty much flat for the day, but really pairing those losses here, Ed, and flirted with the 10-day line, but thoughts here with CHIPS?

10:06Yeah, SMH looks really good. Let's be like, that one looks really good. I mean, that's right at highs. There's, you know, there you could have seen if you're going to talk about, oh, it also shows you, puts in perspective. Yes, some really extended stocks have come back down, but it wasn't like there's a wholesale. I hate growth stocks. I hate, you know, stocks that are growing well that may have been on advances because it's not like this was way about the 10 day line. I mean, most of the chips names weren't crazy extended. Maybe one or two were getting somewhat extended and some of those have gotten hit.

10:37And that's fine. But chips overall, not crazy extended. The thesis is still there, which is definitely positive for the whole rally. And let's look at IGV. That's the software ETF. This went down 1.2 percent today, finishing below the 10-day line. Yeah, a little bit more weakness here. Now, some of that's Oracle, which had a big move in there, you know, in now some DAX. some. Palantir, which we'll look at, is actually the number one component. And that was basically flat, which we'll look at. So this is fine as well. I mean, this seems normal. Yes, if it starts breaking the 21-day or certainly the 50-day line, you get worried.

11:16But it hasn't done that yet. So it's something that bears watching, but is normal for now. And I think that you had one more here, that did you want me to take a look at before being... NLR. NLR. All right. All right. That's Uranium and nuclear, this one up nine-tenths of a percent today, Ed. And again, a nice reversal here after dipping below this 10-day line. Yeah. I mean, some of there were some real high flyers that did come off quite a bit, but came off lows. And others that were more uranium plays, they rebounded. And some of it on news, some of it just on general positive. So this shows you this area.

11:53Again, came to the 10-day line, found support. This is one of the more aggressive areas of the market, and this overall did pretty well, despite definitely some divergent trends today. But this showed healthy performance overall. Fusion powers the sun and stars. General Fusion is working to bring the zero carbon abundant energy source to Earth. As global electricity demand surges, Fusion has the potential to deliver clean, scalable power for a growing world. Proudly NASDAQ listed, General Fusion is the first publicly traded pure play fusion energy company in the world. With its magnetized target fusion technology and operational demonstration machine, General Fusion is advancing toward commercialization, targeting a first-of-a-kind fusion plant around 2035.

12:38Learn more at generalfusion.com. All right, well, let's take a look at some individual stocks. Let's check with MP Materials. This is a rare earth mining operation here, up 8.3 % today. Ed, we also see this blue dot here on the RS line, which is a great sign as it's attempting to break out here. But thoughts here on the chart? Yeah, just to full disclosure, I do own a position in this, but this was one of the more impressive rebounds, despite me talking in my book. It rebounded off the 21-day line, basically close to the 50-day line. Really strong reversal. I think that was like, this was one of the first ones to go.

13:19I guess there was a report that maybe the Trump administration is looking to maybe have more stakes in rare earth companies. Now, that isn't necessarily a positive for M &M materials because it's sort of like, well, I thought maybe it wasn't M &P materials special. I mean, they got this big surge because the federal government was investing in them, giving them a price floor. But if you do that for others, you could spin that as negatively. I don't know yet. I just saw that. But that seemed to be a catalyst. Bounced off of there, you know, I suppose if you bought it above Wednesday's high, you could have bought off of that.

13:50I did not. I did not do anything else. I was thinking, but that was actionable. It's close to this flat place, five point. You have the blue dot showing that relative strength. A lot of growth here with the price floor that's very high. You know, that bodes well, sort of almost like a guarantee. As long as they can produce the stuff, it should be profitable. So strong performance here. And that$82.50 is the traditional buy point on this one. Let's head on over to Futu. That's a Chinese brokerage platform, if I'm correct. This one up 1.5 % today. And again, testing this 21-day line, but, you know, finding some strength here at finishing towards the middle of that trading range.

14:37Yeah. And a lot of Chinese stocks have had a pretty decent week. And yesterday it made a big, big move above the 50-day line, but it didn't quite, you know, came up to a trend line, came up to the 21-day, didn't cross it. But I think today it has, you know, it has decisively and it's still relatively close to the 50-day line. So this was sort of the first test of the 50-day 10-week line since the breakout way back in May. And I made a big run from there. So you could buy it off of that. Or, you know, you could wait to see this could be or you could sort of treat it like an early entry to what could be an emerging base.

15:09But that's often what happens when you pull back to the 10-week line. It offers an opportunity and then the base forms, you know, not always. So, yeah, this one's very volatile. I think you would want to use maybe the lows from a couple of days ago is definitely your stop loss. And, you know, that would be probably at the 8 % level too. That would be something you definitely, because they'd be decisively below the 50-day line. So that would definitely tell you something's wrong. But nice action here. And I think something else that's nice, a lot of AI stocks are still the leaders. It's nice to find a stock that isn't so exposed directly to AI, that has strong growth.

15:45You know, you're not going to some defensive name. This is a growth stock. Doesn't mean it's safe by any means. But it doesn't mean that if the AI stocks all tumble, this isn't necessarily going to lead the decline. All right. Let's head on over to Palantir, Ed. You mentioned this when we were talking about software. This went down about three-tenths of a percent today. But we're on the daily. We can probably see it better on the weekly here. Looking like maybe forming a handle here on this cut base, Ed. So what are your thoughts here? Yeah. Yeah, and that's one reason this could be constructive because, I mean, at least at the interday lows, there's a little bit of something, a little bit of a shakeout.

16:24Again, this is not that much. It could even take a little bit more. Even if it came down toward a rising 21-day line, that would still be fine, especially because the 21-day line is going to rise quite a bit. Yeah, you know, there was sort of an early entry last week when it punched higher above sort of a short-term level, another sort of too short handle. But this is offering another opportunity. this never really fell that much again but this wasn't that extended again when you're seeing that like with the with the smh chip and this these are these are huge winners but they're they weren't crazy extended so the fact that they weren't really hammered shows you that it was more like whoa whoa we just need to just you know like to slow down a little bit some of these crazy stocks you know not necessarily there's some kind of redirection so this is really it's really good to see because this you know palantir is probably the stock it was the top performer last year in the S &P 500.

17:13If it's not number one, it is very close this year as well. So, you know, this one, if it goes above this week's highs, I think would definitely be actionable. It'd be great if it could form a real handle, though, in the first. But yeah, a lot to like still, obviously, with Palantir. All right, Ed. Well, thank you so much for your insights today. And that wraps it up for this edition of Stock Market Today. You can catch more market analysis starting tomorrow morning with IBD Live. You can head on over to investors.com slash IBD Live for all the details there. You know, we talked a little bit about today about, you know, what to look for next.

17:52And I'm sure Justin Nielsen and Mike Webster will have a great wrap up for you for tomorrow's edition of Stock Market Today, looking at the week and preparing for the week ahead. So again, be sure to tune in tomorrow after the close. Thank you so much for watching and we'll see you tomorrow. Thank you.

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