Indexes Gap To Highs; Pattern, Goldman Sachs, AeroVironment In Focus

24 Oct 2025 · 1 h 13 min · 27 chapters

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In short

Friday market wrap (Oct 24, 2025). Indexes “gapped up to highs” and broke out of a prior range after CPI came in better than expected; main overhang is uncertainty in U.S.-China relations (rare earth curbs and Trump tweets). Strategy emphasis: trend-following/breakout trading with risk controls because price action is choppy and can fade into the close.

Guests

Mike Webster, senior market strategist (breakout/trend follower; discusses swing trading risk management, moving averages, ATR/RSI-style indicators, and chart patterns). Host: Justin Nielsen (runs the segment; references prior IBD Live discussions).

Key claims

  • Likelihood of follow-through is “high” when sideways ranges break out, but confirmation signals are not fully met (e.g., need 3 days with lows above the 21-day moving average).
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) is leading on relative strength but has had false starts; position sizing should be reduced.
  • Regional banks (KRE) recovered but still “not trusted” until above the 50-day for about a week.
  • Tech leadership is strong (XLK new highs); Google looks best pre-earnings, but earnings can cause unpredictable gaps.

Notable examples

Pattern (recent IPO), Goldman Sachs (XLF strength), AeroVironment (AVAV) added to SwingTrader; sector/ETF calls include Qs/QQEW, XBI/XBI, ITA, XLV/XBI, IBIT, SMH, NLR, XLU, and IBM/NLR as “watch” charts.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Market Reactions and Initial Thoughts

0:56 to 1:22

Hosts discuss unexpected market movements and the importance of flexibility.

“down the action and kind of let us know what was going on.”

Understanding the Current Market Trends

1:22 to 2:10

Discussion on recent market trends, including CPI and geopolitical factors.

“So let's get some initial thoughts from you, Mike, and then we'll get into the indexes.”

Analyzing Historical Market Data

2:10 to 3:09

Hosts analyze historical data to gauge market movement and sentiment.

“Now, of course, we've got earnings and everything, you know, over the coming weeks.”

Key Stocks in Focus: IPOs and Financials

3:09 to 5:15

Discussion of notable stocks including Pattern, Goldman Sachs, and Aerovironment.

“And you did fall out of that range to the downside in this case and then kind of got back into the range.”

Index Performance Review

5:15 to 7:03

Review of the performance of major indexes and their movement trends.

“And some of the stocks that we're going to cover today include a pattern group, which is a recent IPO.”

Insights on the Russell 2000 Index

7:03 to 8:29

Hosts discuss the behavior and trends of the Russell 2000 index.

“with a 1.3 % gain, although that one did not get to new highs.”

Sector Analysis and Market Sentiment

8:29 to 10:34

Analysis of various market sectors and their implications for trading.

“We talked about this that this morning on on the show.”

Market Closing Dynamics

10:34 to 14:01

Discussion on market closing dynamics and the implications for future trading.

“So maybe do an IWM instead of a TNA, which is a three times to help to live through the wiggles and wobbles.”

Market Close Analysis and Qs Performance

14:01 to 16:30

Learn about daily market performance and the resilience of the Qs index.

“No matter how you slice it, that's not a great close.”

Sector Performance Insights

16:30 to 21:52

Explore the performance of various sectors including GDX, GLD, and XLY.

“And just to kind of show what QQEW looked like, it was kind of in a similar situation.”
Show all 27 chapters

Evaluating Individual Stocks and ETFs

21:52 to 24:20

Discussion on individual stocks like Google and Netflix before earnings.

“So if I was dying to buy something in the big cap space in front of earnings, this is where I'd be going.”

Aerospace and Tech Sector Performance

24:20 to 28:01

Insights into aerospace and technology sector movements, focusing on key ETFs.

“ITA, the aerospace defense area, that that popped out to highs.”

Market Trends and Sector Performance

28:01 to 31:56

Explore the latest movements in the technology and banking sectors and their implications.

“And look, a little bit more on the speculative side, the ARK Innovation ETF, Cathie Wood's flagship, ARKK, that one was up over one and a half percent.”

IPO Insights and Stock Analysis

32:04 to 39:25

Delve into IPO patterns and analyze individual stocks, including Goldman Sachs and AeroVironment.

“And again, there were a lot there was a lot to look at.”

AeroVironment Stock Review

39:25 to 42:01

An in-depth look at AeroVironment's stock performance and market positioning.

“As you mentioned, a lot of the aerospace defense stocks still look very good.”

Market Correlations and Weekly Trends

42:01 to 43:54

Discuss the correlation between various stocks and analyze weekly candle patterns in the market.

“You know, so again, a lot of things very highly correlated.”

Analyzing Regression Channels and Standard Deviations

43:54 to 47:24

Explore regression channels in SPY and NASDAQ while discussing their recent movements and implications for the market.

“And this looks even as good, if not better, than SPY.”

Moving Averages and Market Conditions

47:24 to 50:37

Evaluate moving averages for various stocks and discuss their implications for market strength.

“These are still using the October 10th high and low.”

Market Choppiness and Trading Strategies

50:37 to 53:14

Reflect on recent market choppiness and discuss trading strategies to manage risk in volatile conditions.

“Let me stop sharing with this one, and I'm going to share our other charts.”

Character Changes in Trading Instruments

53:14 to 56:00

Examine character changes in trading instruments and their implications for market behavior.

“Yeah, no, I mean, what I've learned about this market is that apparently buying at highs and selling at lows is not as useful for growing your portfolio.”

Market Reactions and Indicators

56:00 to 57:30

Learn about the significance of ATRs and market character changes.

“And the smaller ones were right in here at around 2.4, 2.5 ATRs off the high.”

Chronological Analysis of Market Patterns

57:30 to 59:00

Explore chronological patterns of market movements and their implications.

“So we were looking, what you asked me to look for are the times where you've got how many days where the high doesn't cross the high of your day one, that big day.”

Big Spread Days and Their Outcomes

59:00 to 1:05:40

Understand how wide trading spreads impact subsequent market behavior.

“and this was more basically you have this big movement and then you're staying within it and then seeing how these break.”

Market Strategies and Cautionary Approaches

1:05:40 to 1:09:20

Discover strategies to navigate current market conditions and manage risks.

“And why this example didn't come up is because we did we did undercut, you know, a couple of times here.”

Music and Market Sentiments

1:09:20 to 1:10:01

Hear about connections between music and market feelings, including album recommendations.

“But I would be very precise with your buy points.”

Weekend Music Picks and Nostalgia

1:10:01 to 1:11:14

Hosts share their favorite songs and reminisce about concerts and bands from the past.

“So that's the song I'm going to go with.”

Weekend Music Picks and Nostalgia

1:12:19 to 1:12:37

Hosts share their favorite songs and reminisce about concerts and bands from the past.

“For more than 60 years, Medline has proven this, driven by an unrelenting commitment to their customers.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00I'm Steve Booth, CEO of Baird, an independent wealth, asset management, and global capital markets firm. At Baird, our 5 ,000-plus employees are united by an unwavering commitment to excellence and a genuine passion for helping our clients and each other succeed. As a privately held, truly employee-owned company, we treasure our independence since we can focus on delivering results to clients and taking care of our people throughout the cycles in our serve markets. Learn more at rwbaird.com slash WSJ.

0:40hello and welcome to another episode of the stock market today video it is our friday wrap up for the week and it is october 24th 2025 and of course my name is justin nielsen i'll be hosting today and joining me as he typically does is mike webster our senior market strategist to break down the action and kind of let us know what was going on. And I mean, the big news here today is gapping up two highs, not what we expected, but that's why we adjust and don't hang our hat on like, oh, this is what must happen. It's one of those things where we have to have that flexibility of saying, okay, when things are stronger or weaker than you expect, you got to go with the market rather than trying to get the market to go along with you.

1:22So let's get some initial thoughts from you, Mike, and then we'll get into the indexes. Well, you know what? You take it as they give it to you. I would have preferred to just chop along sideways for longer to build more of a base here, but we didn't get it. So we have to adjust and we have some historical data to look at as we do on a kind of semi-regular basis. So we'll look at that in a little bit. But But the reality is we went out of this range, the range that was set by that bad Friday, a couple of Fridays ago. And we have been just chopping along and just waiting for a catalyst, obviously, with the CPI being, you know, better than what folks, even though it was high, better than what folks had expected.

2:11That got us that jump up. Now, of course, we've got earnings and everything, you know, over the coming weeks. But really, the big overhang is, you know, the unknown with the China-U.S. relations. But the market likes it. And so we're just going to we're going to go with that. But we're going to go kind of, you know, slow. And as a reminder, of course, October 10th is when a tweet or I guess a truth from President Donald Trump is kind of what started things in motion for some of this choppy action as a response to the China rare earth metals curbs that they were instituting. Trump felt like he had to kind of do something in response to that.

2:59And so that's what kind of caused this action. And, you know, you've been talking a little bit about this December 18th day, which, to be honest, we had a lot of the range here over the next month or so was within that. And you did fall out of that range to the downside in this case and then kind of got back into the range. So what do you think the likelihood of that potentially coming to pass? Well, my gut would tell me very high because it just, but the data that I looked at that we're going to look at in a little bit tells me no, that when you go sideways and break out of it, you tend to, in most cases, go with the initial move.

3:51And there were a lot of things that looked, you know, interesting today. But look, the reality is we get another bad tweet. You know, if President Trump throws up his hands and says, no, you know, we're with China, then like that's going to push us back. Most likely it would push us back down in here. But so it is going to be news related, but we just have to go off of the instruments that we have and the instruments we have. You know, the 21 day, we've got that with a low above it. Now we want three days with our low above the 21 day. We haven't had that yet. And then closing up. So but you also, you know, we're breakout traders.

4:32We're trend followers. And to get a trend going, many of those times, those trends start with a classic breakout. And that's what we had here from, you know, the highs from the 10th of the month. So you've got to lean bullish, but be, you know, on the careful side of things. You know, we were careful with what we did with Swing Trader today. We were just kind of taking it easy and, you know, not doing double or triple ETFs and just slowly going through. Because I thought there was a strong possibility that we would just fade into the close. But it just it held up there. And a lot of things looked really good, frankly.

5:13It was I'm surprised. Pleasantly surprised. Pleasantly surprised. Right. And some of the stocks that we're going to cover today include a pattern group, which is a recent IPO. Goldman Sachs, because the financials were doing very, very well. And in the aerospace defense area, drone maker, Aerovironment, AVAV are some of the stocks that we're going to cover. And I have a position in that one. you know what I do have a position I think I might have a position in all three I was doing yeah a lot of a lot of last minute buying and both did we put Goldman Sachs on Swing Trader? No we almost did we almost did yeah we talked about that one this morning on IBD Live we actually we talked about both Goldman Sachs and AVD he was a great guest man he was one of the you know top performers on the U.S.

6:06Investing Championship last year. At one point when he was on my podcast, he was up 900 % for the year and still, you know, had a rough December, but still finished well above 400 % in his account. So, and that was again audited by the U.S. Investing Championship. So that was a very good, very good showing last year. And yeah, a lot of great information in terms of risk management. Let's just real quickly go through the indexes as we talked a little bit about the NASDAQ. That was finishing up 1.14 percent, basically. Again, a gap up to new high ground outside of that range. The S &P 500 looking awfully similar.

6:46That was up about 0.85 percent at the end of the day, I'm showing. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average was also off to new highs that had a 1 percent gain. And then the Russell 2000 was actually taking the pole position, with a 1.3 % gain, although that one did not get to new highs. As a reminder, for that October 10th high, the Russell 2000 was the first one to cross the highs and was actually kind of looking like it was diverging initially. But then it fell back into its range and still has a little ways to go to actually get to its all-time highs. But it is well above that October 10th high again.

7:32So anything to add in terms of the index action here, Mike? No, I think you did a great job. I will say I'm having some Internet slowness, so you are completely frozen. So if I go away, you can take the rest of the show. OK, just that easy, you know, because because you haven't you haven't put in enough work today. So there you go. Right. Exactly. Well, let's talk a little bit since it's up. Let's talk a little bit about the Russell 2000, because this one does feel a little bit different. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? It's very sloppy, but it feels like it wants to go. Like every chance that the market turns, it's the first one out of the gate.

8:15But then we, you know, we had the stuff with the regional banks, you know, hit it. And it's just I don't think everyone believes that it's going to work. I don't even believe it. And I've been thinking that this is going to be the one that is going to lead us, you know, not that the SPI and NASDAQ have to fall, but really that this is going to, as you said, take the pole position, which I loved that game growing up. You remember that. You're old, too. That was fun. But it just let's go to the monthly. We talked about this that this morning on on the show. And it's really kind of like a saucer with handle that it tried to break out of and then failed from there.

8:58And now it's recovering into new highs. And that's a nice base to work off of where it could really have an extended multi-year move. Not saying that whatever you'd buy today is something you'd hold for that whole move. But this has been really dead for such a long time. And really, even when it wasn't dead, it's been lagging. And you can tell that by the relative strength line. That green line on there has either been flat or trending down because the money has been flowing into, let's pull up the FNGS, I guess, which is the mega cap ones. And you can just see there's a lot of white space in between the RS line and its moving averages.

9:42That's a sign that it is a leading stock or index. where now go back to the IWM and show that. And you can see how it's the complete opposite. And just pull up SPY if people aren't familiar with how this works. So SPY is just going to be flatlined because that is your benchmark. So if it's outperforming, whatever you're looking at, it'll be above it. So pull up the cues as a point of reference. how this one has been, you know, for the most part, trending, outperforming the S &P. But so that's what I think is going to happen with the IWM. But, you know, history is telling us, at least recent history, that it's not going to be an easy ride because it keeps chopping you up.

10:29And with that in mind, you just dial your position size back in there. So maybe do an IWM instead of a TNA, which is a three times to help to live through the wiggles and wobbles. Yeah, no, absolutely. And again, I think one of the issues that we were having with IWM is that there were just so many false starts along the way where it just couldn't seem to really trend for more than a day or two. But that certainly seemed to change more recently, especially as it got out of this base here, really here. I mean, it just started trending really nicely above the 21-day moving average line and even for a lot of this above the 10-day moving average line.

11:13So very interesting move there. And you do have, I will say, you do have a lot of heat in this one. Even though it's 2000 stocks, you do have a lot of heat in there where you don't have that same type of heat in the. Absolutely. The spy or the other ones we normally look at. Yeah. So some of the largest positions in the Russell 2000 include Oclo, which, again, no, not for the faint of heart there. uh, B E, uh, Bloom Energy, you know, that is also, you know, one of the top stocks. And I think that there were some, um, I don't know, maybe like a Rigetti and some of the quantum computing, you know, so, uh, now granted because there's 2000 stocks, uh, these don't have very large, um, weightings in there, but still, uh, that's, that's where the weightings are the heaviest.

12:04Um, so, uh, you certainly get access to some of that heat, but, you know, as, as you noted, KRE, the regional banks, that took a big hit after Zion came out with some warnings about some bad debt that it was facing. It's recovered quite a bit and so has KRE. But this is, you know, the regional banks is also a fairly heavy weight in terms of the Russell 2000 components. And I wouldn't trust those yet. Like, go back to the Zion. When you break like that and you kind of, I would say, for lack of a better word, kind to drift up or wedge up, I wouldn't trust this until it can get above its 50-day and stay above it for about a week.

12:48To me, this, you know, I don't short often, but it looks more like a short candidate than something on the long side. So we're not out of the woods with that trade as far as I'm concerned. Yeah, no, good point. Let's take a look at some of the sectors, if you don't mind. Sure. go through our typical sectors that we do. We use a lot of the sector spider. There's 11 sector spiders that we look at in addition to, you know, SPY and RSP in there just to see where they fit in the mix. But actually, you know, before we do the sectors, let's take a quick look at RSP because I should have noted that this one, you know, closed a little bit more poorly, a little bit more at the lows.

13:32So a little bit more what you would have expected from some of the stocks that we were looking at at the at the open today. You're like, OK, I don't want to get too excited. We're gapping up at the open. A lot of times you can get a fade into the close. And that seemed to be kind of where RSP was a little bit more today. This closed. I mean, if you if you look just at the closing range, this is about the seven percent closing range. If you used a true range, it was about thirty five percent. No matter how you slice it, that's not a great close. Yeah, let's go to the, and this is what I was thinking was going to happen this morning.

14:08Go to the intraday and why we were taking it so slow, as you mentioned. That's not a good look. You gap up, you have a little range, and then you test it. And then if it was really strong and everyone really felt comfortable with things, that first test, the breach of your gap open, after that test, we would have ripped up, hit fresh highs and then been closing around 192.5 or so. That would have been normal, healthy action. But instead, we drifted down with this last little, you know, mini cell into the close. Let's look at Qs as the other one. And this one held up much, much better, you know, where you can see.

14:54Oh, do you want to look at the Qs or QQEW? No, the Qs. Okay. So this one tested that morning, you know, the morning gap up and then was able to kind of flatline all day. But it wasn't building. So I spent a lot of my time looking at the distance from the opening price to where it is. So that's your candle on a daily chart and waiting for it to really expand. If that expanded a lot, I was going to press the gas harder. but since it didn't, it was nice that it was up and out of the range but not to the point where it was telling you, okay, everything is clear now. It's more like it felt a bit like a short covering rally.

15:40Let's go back to the daily. Imagine you went short on the day on that October 10th. This is a day where you're kind of forced to cover because you're going back through that high So your expectation is now, you know, that that trade is dead, that you were wrong on that trade because you thought it was going to go lower, which I think would have been a good trade if it just didn't work out. Now it went back through the high of that day. So that's a natural stop. And so it seems like the shorts covered or a lot of the shorts covered, but you didn't get that further momentum that you tend to get with all the longs adding to it.

16:19So it could be a lot like the post-December 18th where you chop around. But as we go through some examples in a little bit, the examples have me a little bit more positive than this action shows. And just to kind of show what QQEW looked like, it was kind of in a similar situation. It did undercut the lows initially, came back into the range, but did falter, especially at the end there. And this is a little bit gap because it's just not quite as liquid as something like SPY, but it does give you the idea of what was going on. Okay, let's go ahead and take a look at some of the sectors. We also include a few interesting areas to pay attention to as well.

17:07Now, GDX, this was getting a nice bounce at its 50-day moving average line. Looked like a little bit of a follow-up yesterday. But, you know, I think, I don't know, is this meh at this point? What do you think? It feels like it needs some time because that island top, for lack of a better way of pointing that out, is, you know, just it needs time. You know, I think GLD looks much better than GDX, frankly. Yeah, absolutely. A lot more muted in terms of its moves and held up a little bit better. And for those that aren't aware of what an island top is, when you kind of get, you know, a lot of times a gap up and a gap back down, and it just leaves this area right here as kind of an island all by itself, all by its lonesome, that's what we kind of refer to as an island top.

18:00It's just price action that's, again, kind of separated from the majority of land. And, you know, you could even say that there was a little bit more of this island, you know, kind of above 80 here on GDX. Moving over to energy, XLE, this fell back below its 50-day moving average line. It's been a little bit tough for the oil stocks to get some traction here. XLB, the materials, this is also still below its 50-day moving average line. So still working on getting some strength there, but, you know, hovering below that. You mentioned GLD. That was also down, but not nearly as much as GDX. That was down about a third of a percent as opposed to 1.3%.

18:47And XLP, look, the staples, that's where people tend to hide when they are nervous about the market. and they still have to be fully invested. So it's kind of nice to see on a strong day, XLP not do as well. But this is back below its 200-day moving average line and below its 50-day moving average line. XLY, you know, this is very heavily weighted by Tesla and Tesla was having a down day. So not - And I do have a position in that, so. Right. And I know that, you know, that wasn't a good feeling for you, Mike. You know, when the market is up so strong And you've got a position in something, you know, a core position, especially that just isn't participating.

19:30But that is still holding above its 21 day moving average line and XLY. While it was down again, a lot of that pressure was probably from Tesla. Amazon, which is the other heaviest component in XLY, was it was up one point four percent. And if we looked at like RSPD, which is the XLY, you know, evenly distributed, well, you know, that was down too. So there is kind of a question mark in terms of the consumer discretionary and the strength there in retail and so on. That looks like it's getting kind of some resistance at its 50-day moving average line. So something worth watching. XLV, basically flat for the day.

20:15But it's kind of nice that this one was already at new high ground or recent high ground. That's the place to go, frankly. I've been, as I build, do my screens, I do it with just an open mind, not from, you know, a top down type of thing. I just look at everything and then kind of see where the bulk of my watch list is. And it just happens to be medical right now. A lot of things are coming through there. XLV just hasn't given us a really nice entry point. Off the 21-day, that upside reversal off there would have been your best one, but it still wasn't obvious that that was the buy point. And so I'm looking to get into XLV or really just do individual medical.

21:06So for folks screening over the weekend, I would lean heavily on the medical space. And maybe this tight action here, if that continues, that could offer an entry. So something that we will be watching very closely. XLI, the industrials, that is looking like it kind of got to new highs, but closed a little bit poorly today. XLC, which is Meta and Google, or Alphabet, I should say, the parent company of Google, that is back above its 50-day moving average line and holding up fairly well. But again, closed well off its highs today. We talked about RRSP. Can we go to Google for a second? Because I think that's one of the best-looking charts out there.

21:46I just wish we didn't have earnings in five days. But that is just beautiful action. I mean, it really – you can't ask for more from that. So if I was dying to buy something in the big cap space in front of earnings, this is where I'd be going. But pull up Netflix, for example. That one was looking interesting. And then you have the earnings come out. And it's just a crapshoot. You could have easily seen this gapping up as much as it gapped down. And then it would have been perfect. And it would have been, oh, it's obvious it was rounding up through. So you don't know until you have earnings how it's going to react.

22:25And that's why you tend to not jump in front of it. But with that said, if you put a gun to my head, I'd buy Google ahead of earnings because it looks good. Yeah. Hey, stop the violence. Jeez. There you go. Like a Nerf gun. Like a Nerf gun. Okay, Nerf gun. There we go. RSP, as we mentioned, we covered that already. XLRE, the real estate ETF. This is showing some strength, getting kind of above this 42, you know, 50 area. That's Chris Gessel's favorite ETF. Exactly. Nothing gets more excited than a nice slow REIT with plenty of income for a strong dividend yield. QQEW, next on the list, we talked about that.

23:12Let's talk a little bit about IBIT. But IBIT, man, it's looking like it wanted to go. And then there's that 50-day moving average line kind of saying not quite yet. You shall not pass. What do you think here for IBIT? It needs time. So when you look at a chart, if you look at charts all the time, you can kind of say, okay, well, if this did this, it would look right. And no matter how you look at this one for it to look right, it just needs time. You know, it's not falling apart, which is great after that weekend that we had, that one Saturday where all the other, you know, like the junkie coins or whatever they're called, you know, like they all got hit so hard.

23:57Mean coins or I don't know. Yeah, whatever they are, you know, silly tulips, I guess, where this one just needs to kind of base build. It could base build for a couple of weeks or it could base build for several months. We'll just see. Yeah. No trade, no trade in sight on the long or the short side right here that I see. Right. ITA, the aerospace defense area, that that popped out to highs. So looking interesting there. And this held up real nicely, just right above the 21 day moving average line. Still an area of strength. Yeah. Yeah, that looks good. We talked a little bit about XLV in the medical area.

24:36And if you want to kind of drill down to XBI, This is something that we added back to Swing Trader. This is actually what I had my column on. Last week's column was on the Russell 2000 and the summer that small caps turned pretty. I could have almost used the same line here because certainly when this XBI got back above the 200-day moving average line back in August 13th, it's been a nice run here on XBI. So probably something I'm going to try and get myself back into, but I couldn't do that. as I was writing the column. SPY, we chatted a little bit about that, gapping up to highs with a 0.8 % move.

25:17The IGV, which is our software, that closed off its highs, but did hold onto the gap and not quite at highs, but still looking like it's holding up fairly well. The Qs, a little bit stronger with over a 1 % gain. And XLF, we're going to talk about Goldman Sachs in a little bit, But XLF was looking, you know, quite powerful today. I agree. It's just stuck underneath the 50 days. So in this case, I think doing the individuals like the Morgans or the, you know, or, you know, Goldman's or even a Bank of America or things like that make more sense than going with the XLF just because it's got a bunch of other stuff in there, too.

26:05Like the visas and MasterCards and all that stuff. Right. Um, and you know, if you, if you look at a KBE, uh, which is a little bit more evenly distributed, uh, amongst a lot of banks, uh, that's still suffering below its, uh, 50 day moving average line, as opposed to KBWB, uh, which did cross back above its 50 day moving average line, um, with, I think it's got some larger, larger banks in there. Um, and certainly in the financial space, one of the areas that is very heavily weighted, because their market cap weighted and Berkshire Hathaway is a big boy. So this one is still, you know, not doing too much at the moment.

26:46So that's also weighting the XLF down because of the heavy weight there. Okay, moving on. As you mentioned, FNGS had a great day as the mega caps were, you know, were performing well. And XLU, normally something that on a strong day you wouldn't expect to see. having such a great day. But now that we've gotten used to the utilities being kind of an AI adjacent play, not too surprising to see a little bit of a bounce here off the 21 day moving average line, but not quite at highs. But still, how did the very strong day? The My Cousin Vinny ETF do? Yeah. Utes. We got some Utes to watch. That looks, you know, really, really good, especially going back through its old pivot there of two and a half percent on on an ETF.

27:42That's something we were looking at for swing trader. And we just didn't want to get too heavy or we would have put this one on to using really like yesterday's close as a stop. XLK, in terms of our sector spiders, that one was taking the day. As that gap to new highs, of course, this is the technology sector, which is where a lot of the action was today. And look, a little bit more on the speculative side, the ARK Innovation ETF, Cathie Wood's flagship, ARKK, that one was up over one and a half percent. And then, again, as we mentioned, IWM fell in there as well. KRE that we talked about, the regional banking, that was up a lot, you know, up 1.7.

28:30But that still has some explaining to do, if you will. And then SMH, the chip ETF, VanEck semiconductor chips, that was at new highs with a 1.8 % gain. And NLR, the nuclear space that we were— On the SMH, let's go to Intel for a second, which was very interesting. Some of these old in stocks going and it kind of looked like a, well, it was just this shelf out of this long base. I didn't like that reaction. This is what I was expecting all day was going to happen to the entire market, that it didn't. But IBM, another blast from the past that we were both talking about before the show, is just frankly mind-blowing to see some of these ones that we had all ridden off.

29:20I mean, this was a big stock back in the day, like, you know, decades and decades, even decades before both of us were trading to see a move like this. This is, let's go to a monthly, just for people who haven't, you know, followed IBM. I mean, this has been a dog, you know. And zoom out a second. Yeah, look at this relative strength. Just nothing. So, yeah, just something that has seen better days long, long, long ago. So it's encouraging. Someone misses the 90s, right? Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So, and look, you know, keep in mind, it's not like, I mean, today was great, But yesterday was no walk in the park with that big widespread.

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30:08It closed well off its lows, got support of the 50-day moving average line. But, man, you were in for a wild ride yesterday. And then – Well, the good thing about that – I'm sorry, but go back to the IBM for a second. That cleans out all the stops there. So anyone who had any stop in there, they are all long gone. So it allows this thing to just really move. So it'd be fascinating to see. But this looks like the start of something. I don't know that I will be buying it, you know, because I don't know the story and what's turning it around. But frankly, if something like this is up 8%, almost 8%, there has to be a new thing going on there.

30:50So it's worth doing some homework over the weekend because I really love it when they clean out all the stops there. Yeah, no, absolutely. And then, again, we kind of were topping this off with NLR. Any other ETFs that you were particularly watching today? Or does that kind of cover it? No, I was working. So, yeah, it's a busy, busy times at IBD. A lot of for sure. Yeah, a lot of action there. Well, I will throw in FFTY for fun. That was up 2.8 percent. You know, look, that has a that has a number of gold stocks. I think the gold stocks are kind of fallen out of the FFTY more recently, but it still has a lot of, you know, some some speculative names that have been doing doing well.

31:36I use that less than I use Dow. OK, not saying much there. Most finance teams are spending on the wrong things. Expense reports, spend policy PDFs that nobody reads, a close that stretches into weeks. That's maintenance, not momentum. It's time to get Brex AF, a gentic finance that eliminates that work before it starts. Learn more at brex.com slash AF. Let's talk about some of the individual stocks that we had kind of on our radar. And again, there were a lot there was a lot to look at. So that was that was the positive news here. I'm going to just get back to my. There we go. So let's start with IPO, because that's kind of fun to see when there's new blood in the in the works.

32:25I did a very, very small position here, you know, just kind of a pilot position. And unfortunately, I didn't I didn't add to it. This has earnings coming up. That was another reason why I was doing a fairly small position. But go ahead and give us your thoughts on this IPO pattern. OK, so I'm just being the person who invented the IPO base. I kind of pay attention to all of these. I was going to buy it yesterday, but just with the market the way it was and right in front of the CPI, I decided to let it go. Regretting that just a little bit now because the buy point was really through the$14.80.

33:07Not even there, the$14.80. Oh, sorry. Yeah, that was truly, you know, where you would have wanted to get it. And you could have gotten it a little bit earlier, too, because there are some areas of resistance and added to it at the 1480 and added it through the left side high. And what's bad about it is that the IPO price was$14 and it traded underneath that. So for a while there, it traded down to$12. The folks who had it were underwater. That's never a good sign for an IPO. But it did come public in a time where things were a bit on the choppy side. So that's a big negative against it. But what I like about it, let's go to the weekly.

33:48And this is worth really go down to the quarterly data. If this these numbers are accurate and you really it's really hard with IPOs to know if they're accurate, you kind of have to go into the SEC filings and look at it and see, is it really clean? But if these numbers are clean, that's huge, having that steady of sales in those numbers when a stock goes public. And look at that earnings line, the angle of ascent on that. That's like picture perfect from yesteryear. I don't know if those numbers are accurate. That's why I'm going to go through and do some research on it. But that has me excited about it.

34:27Not so much the technicals because, again, it traded underneath the IPO price. I do like that it was, you know, flat there and holding and tight there. But really, it's about the fundamentals. So this is a homework play. It's go back to the daily. It's way too extended out from the 1480 to be buying it. And even from the standard pivot, you can see in the top right-hand corner, it's 13 % from its standard pivot. With IPOs, the standard pivot is typically a late pivot. It's like the last chance that you can buy it. You want to look for prior resistance areas like the 1480. So it's well extended.

35:10That's fine. You will then look for an entry point. But, yeah, really worth something to do homework on, that's for sure. Yeah, absolutely. Goldman Sachs. And good job for you getting some. I wish you should have sent me a Slack message. You know what? It's not enough to even move the needle again. This is the problem. Sometimes when you throw something out there, you get busy with every intention of following up on the buy. And if you don't, then you just end up with this tiny position that, yeah, it's not doing anything. Well, you can journal it over to my account if you don't like it. That's fine.

35:46I'll take it. There we go. If only it were that easy. You know, all my stuff is in Roths and I think it's a little bit tougher to journal stuff. I'm not getting a distribution for you, buddy. You can take your 10 percent penalty. Yeah. Goldman Sachs, again, wow, it was really impressive with how strong some of these stocks were. And look at the way that it closed right at the top of its range. So you and I were kind of talking like, I don't know why exactly. So maybe folks in the YouTube comments can add anything that they saw news wise. But, I mean, the whole area was very strong, whether it was, you know, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.

36:30What stuck out about Goldman Sachs to you? I have a positive bias towards Goldman. Just their thought of, I've always thought of them as the key player there. And it really goes back to the work I did when I invented the IPO base of looking at seeing which stocks had, you know, which underwriter the best stocks had. And it was really Goldman. And then it was Morgan. And then it was kind of everybody else underneath that. And speaking of more, like this one gave you a nice entry because you had a declining tops line that it was breaking, breaking through and then going up through its 50 days. So if we wanted to, if we weren't trying to keep our portfolio ATR low, as well as our percent invested relatively low on Swing Trader, we would have added this as well, because it really looked like it was wants to go higher, wants to go through that 800.

37:27But I think Morgan Stanley, let's go over to that one, actually looks stronger because of the way it held up above its 50-day versus Goldman going through it. So this is your better acting one. And so really you could go with either play. If you had$100 to invest in this space, I'd probably split it 50-50 between the two of these or maybe do some JP Morgan as well. But, you know, I think it's encouraging for the market to, you know, have something like this. Well, and not so much the JP, but between the Morgan and the Goldman, I'd put$51.5 in the Morgan and the balance in Goldman. And you do have a BAC, you know, that that was acting acting fairly well.

38:18WFC, you know, so again, a lot of the banks money center that were that were doing doing fairly well. I'm guessing it had to do with like at least part of the move is probably a relief off the CPI data not being, you know, worse or being slightly better than expected. Right. And, you know, it's also one of the things that's kind of nice about a lot of those financials is the earnings are already behind you. You know, next week is going to be a big earnings week. I'm sure that's something that Alexis and Ed Carson are going to cover on their earnings cheat sheet, you know, that they did this this morning.

38:51And I think that should be out. So, yeah, just keep that in mind. We've got a lot of earnings in addition to Fed meetings. So there are things that could absolutely be real. Was there a Fed meeting? I believe so, right? I was making a joke. I'm like, oh, did I did I look at the calendar wrong? So, yeah, the fact that this does have the earnings behind it is is something that gives you a little bit of extra. But look, there's a lot of earnings yet to come that could derail the markets. And again, I do have a position in Goldman Sachs. Let's go ahead and end our discussion with ABAV. As you mentioned, a lot of the aerospace defense stocks still look very good.

39:34This is one that had such a strong move. I actually originally played KTOS for a portion of this. I'm not too happy with how I played it, but I did have a piece of it. And now I've kind of switched over to AVAV as this got supported. It's a 21-day moving average line. What are you looking at here? I should also mention that this got added to SwingTrader today. Yeah, I was about to buy it in my own account, and it made sense for SwingTrader, so we put it there. And then after our restriction, I bought some of it. So I really like how this has handled itself. It's got a lot going for it. It broke out of that base, did the power from pivot in a big way.

40:22and it looks like 41 % or thereabouts, over 40 % within three weeks, then pulled back and found support right around. It's 21-day, and it looks like the upper half, if you were doing a 50 % retracement, and had that little shake out there a couple days ago and is now back at the high over the last week. And it's underneath the Livermore number. So it has all these things going for it. It doesn't mean it's going to work out, but it also feels like it's a bit disconnected from the rest of the market. You can picture in your mind this working out even if the market rolls because it's just how it's been trading.

41:08So I like looking for things that are less correlated. Everything is ultimately correlated, but less correlated to the Qs and SPI because I'm not 100 % sure that we're out of the woods. So that's this is the type of play I'd want to go with, even if the market was looking poor. And you've got a natural, nice stop, either the low from two days ago, yesterday's low, the 21 day, all areas where you can scale out of it if you're wrong, unless you get caught in a gap down. And, you know, those are never fun. You know, I just did a quick look and from the from the from the follow through day on April 22nd through today, AVAV versus SPI correlation coefficient about 0.84.

41:55So, I mean, look, it's up there. You know, a lot of things are, you know, it really doesn't. I was actually doing this for my column on XBI, and XBI was, you know, 0.85 to spy, and a little bit less for the Qs, 0.845. You know, so again, a lot of things very highly correlated. Even if you looked at XBI, just for fun, XBI and AVAV, 0.89 on the correlation coefficient since the follow-through day. So a lot of high correlations in a lot of things right now. So just something to keep in mind. Mike, are you ready to share? I think so. Hopefully my computer cooperates. Doesn't blow up on us. Otherwise, we'll do some stick figures.

42:50Yes. So it looks like a little like this. Let's see. I'll hold on one second. Just trying to get. You tell me, can you see my spot chart? I can see. Yep. Okay. So this is our Bob Weir take a step back looking at the weekly candles to see if there's something different here. Is it strong? Is it weak? And this is beautiful, frankly. We've got into new high ground. We've got a wide candle with a positive body, meaning the close was significantly higher than the open for the week. You've got a tiny little wick at the top with a bigger one at the bottom. All things that you want to see. And on top of that, this body is sitting on top of last week's body.

43:38So if you were to draw one out, this is exactly what you would have wanted. I didn't expect it. at all. I was expecting it to chop around for weeks, if not months, and that's not what we got. So that looks good. And you just always want to be objective when you look at these things, as if you haven't looked at any other charts, because you're trying to paint this big picture looking at things in all different ways and just be objective. And this looks even as good, if not better, than SPY. Again, the body sitting on top of last week's body went into new high ground. And what I like about this one, he had an even longer bottom wick than the top wick.

44:26And let's take a look at, let's look at RSP for fun. So a little bit, you know, more of what I was expecting. Sitting inside of that range, so this is your average S &P stock. If you're not familiar with the RSP, so equal weight. of Spy. And while it had a positive body on there, you do have a top wick without a bottom wick, not something that you want to see. And it stayed within that range. So we'll see how this one plays out for next week. And then the IWM, again, more of what I was expecting. This is an inside wick. So not totally out of the woods, depending on how you look at those. Let's look at the regression channels.

45:10And this is the original regression on SPY using the May 20 or the May 12th and the July 23rd, I think. I can't even see that. Is it 22nd or 23rd? But 23rd there. And it broke out, broke down from these on October 10th. So we stopped using this regression, but just wanted to point out what it's been doing. And then the same thing with the NASDAQ. Using those same dates fell out of it on October 10th. So this channel or this regression is completely dead. But now let's look at it with an alternative date. This is using the August 1st date and then going out as your first anchor point. and then your second anchor point being 50 days out, which happened to be October 10th.

46:05And this is looking more normal where you came down, we're hanging out at the minus one standard deviation, plus or minus for a while. And now as we moved back up through this, it looks like we're a magnet for the line of best fit, which is your white dash line there, what I call home base. So it looks like it wants to go back home. We'll call it the ET stock. And then here's the NASDAQ, same basic thing. It wants to go up there. But you can see, you would have wanted, frankly, a little bit stronger of a close or even a move up to the white line. Now let's look at IWM. Not ideal because we're using the same dates, August 1st and the 10-10.

46:58but going through your 0.75 standard deviation, you should have really rocketed higher and you wouldn't have wanted to have a negative body on there, meaning that you close lower than you're open. So that's a negative. So you're just kind of looking at each one of these charts and just going, this is good, this is bad, trying to paint a picture in your mind of how much conviction you have. We're going to now go with the 50 % retracement that we talked about last week. These are still using the October 10th high and low. What was good before today is we were starting to live in the northern hemisphere, the top part of this, above 63 and change.

47:38And now we're up in the new high ground. So it wins. We've got a win there. Let's look at the same thing on NASDAQ. Same thing there. We're living in the northern hemisphere and moved above there. The IWM, I was using different dates on here. I was using the 10-10 low and then the high from the 15th. We're in the northern hemisphere, but probably need to spend some more time there. We really obviously want to go into new highs. Let's move on to the next chart. These are the same lines that I had last week. I just wanted to see how they played out. So we made it back through those highs. And then we'll take a look at the NASDAQ.

48:19I made it back through the highs there. And let's see the IWM, not there yet. And again, really the 10.10 low, that's our key low. Even though it's in the yellow, really we should probably put that into red pretty soon now that we've gone into new highs. On the other ones, now this is my, you know, just try to make things look as confusing as possible chart. And this is a bunch of moving averages on there. I use all the FIB numbers, you know, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, and so on to get a sense, are they, you know, are they stacked properly or not? Because when something rolls, they're going to have to start crossing over each other.

49:07And when you're in a stronger environment, in a trending environment, they should all look like this. So they're starting to come back out where the very short-term moving averages are over the not as short-term and so on. So that's looking good. Same thing with the NASDAQ. And let's look at the IWM. It's chopping around, but it's back in the right order. So we want to stay there. The longer you stay in the right order, the more comfortable you can be. And then let's look at RSP. Same thing there, too. So that's a little, just an extra technique to look at. But the cleanest way, my favorite way, is to just take out all the noise, just put a 21-day exponential on there and see, is your low above it or not?

49:56Have you been, is the low been above it for three or more days or not? And so we don't have that. Our low has been above it for two days. That's a really good thing. We want to see three days and more. And so that's an encouraging sign. Same thing on the NASDAQ, encouraging sign there. Let's take a look at the IWM. This is our first day with our low above it. And you don't want to see that with a pink candle on there, frankly. And then the RSP, that's been holding up there. And it looks like this has been one, two, three, four, fifth day with your low above it. So that's very nice to see. Let me stop sharing with this one, and I'm going to share our other charts.

50:43Just one sec.

50:50Okay, we're going to look at the Webby RSI, which is at the bottom, and that is your little histogram there, kind of the teal color. That is just measuring in terms of ATR, your low versus your 21-day. you know when you're when you're starting back off where you hadn't had one like we didn't have a webby a positive rsi webby rsi here for quite some time once you start getting it you want it you want to see a wall of blue like we saw over here and in fact you really when you're starting back off even more powerful than this being a little bit over two atrs even getting up to three or so is what you'd like to see.

51:35So this is back in the, you know, over one, like let's call it 1.4-ish range. So that is good. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. Same basic feel there. Let's take a look at the RSP. Less than one ATR there, but still going in the right direction. And you can see that you had little baby ones there. So it's just getting going. And then we will end with IWM on this. And this is our first day out of the gates. And again, we talked about a candle not being great. We're going to go over. So just real quick before we move on, you know, one of the things that, you know, kind of jumps out is just how kind of back and forth.

52:17I mean, there's there's the orange line not consistent. You know, there's these, you know, breaks where it doesn't exist. The histograms, there's these breaks where it's, you know, not not existing. Is that. Is that usual? I mean, is that a sign that that's a sign of choppiness? Right. Right. Because the the orange line that that's your your high versus your your 10 day. And so when you when you start seeing it there, not there, there, not there, it's a sign that you're in choppiness. And I don't know if you've looked at my account over the last three or four weeks, that would tell you it's been choppy because I've been getting chopped up.

52:58I don't know about you, but so it's a reflection of that. And so if you are if you're getting chopped up in your account, but there's a wall of blue there and everything looks normal, then you really have to do some reflecting on your trading and saying, OK, is it me? In this case, it's more a reflection of what the market has been doing is been very, very choppy. Yeah, no, I mean, what I've learned about this market is that apparently buying at highs and selling at lows is not as useful for growing your portfolio. That's my takeaway. That's my takeaway. I've heard. But if you like to buy strength, you know, what are you going to do?

53:39You don't buy at the lows. So, you know, you're trying to buy highs. Unless you get those upside reversals, you know, and even upside reversals. There have been some of those and we've been getting stopped out, you know, on a lot of them. So, again, it is it is what it is. You kind of go through those periods where you try, you try, you try. And then eventually it works. If you stop trying, then that's usually the one that works without you. So, you know, what are you going to do? You keep on trying, but you might reduce your position size. do other elements to recognize that you're not on. So whether that's slowing yourself down or reducing your position size, you can manage your risk that way.

54:24But again, if you stop trying, then when it does turn, you're not there. Yeah, and you can always, when you're getting chopped up, just going lighter and lighter and lighter in the market. And lighter isn't always the percent invested. So like with Swing Trader, we put it up to 50%. But we did it in a very, very timid way. You know, we were going with SPY instead of YouPro. And we were going with IWM instead of TNA. And we were going with, you know, there's different ways of expressing your concern on the market. And when you were saying that buying at the highs and selling at the lows thing, it reminded me of when you remember, what is it, Fred Fern, right?

55:07He was Bill's friend. He was in the office one day. He's like, oh, you guys still buying low, selling high? I'm like, no, we're still trying to buy high and sell higher. You know, so there's different strategies and that's kind of what we try to do. Doesn't always work out. So let's go to the Bob Marley. You know, this is the off high. This is just measuring, you know, how far off your high you are in terms of ATRs. And how I like to use this is the character of whatever the instrument is I'm looking at, whether it's a stock or an ETF and seeing, is it breaking character? And on August 1st, this came down to, let's call it three and a half ATRs, give or take.

55:51So that became your line in the sand that if it materially broke below that, you were getting a character change. this time on the 10th. We came down there just about there to that same level and then turned. So that's what you want to see. And the smaller ones were right in here at around 2.4, 2.5 ATRs off the high. So the minor reactions were there and your bigger reaction was around the three and a half. So you look at each instrument to get a sense of what the character is. And then when that character changes, that's when you want to pay close attention. Let's take a look at it on the NASDAQ.

56:29Same thing with the NASDAQ, stopping in and around the same place. That's what's so powerful about this very simple indicator. Let's take a look at the IWM, which is a little different picture because it's been, you know, coming up from the dead. But this is, you know, tends to stop around, let's call it about three ATRs off its high. And let's look at the RRSP because why not? But this one a little bit more all over the place. This one came down to four ATRs over here and about four ATRs. So you can get a sense for kind of the character of things. Do we have time to look? I know we've gone long, but can we at least show the dates even if we don't have time to look at them?

57:13I've got them. I've got them ready. I'm with you. Can we go through them if I'm quick? Yeah, yeah, yeah. So just why don't you explain what we did? Because, again, we're really using that kind of idea of a big widespread, and we were trading inside that. So we were looking, what you asked me to look for are the times where you've got how many days where the high doesn't cross the high of your day one, that big day. And in this case, we're using October 10th. And how many days do you have where, it's an and statement. So the high is not above the high of the day one and the low is not below the low of day one.

57:59And so if we were looking at kind of these days like October 10th, here's what we came up with. And, you know, I mean, like, remember, April 9th, 2025, this was right after the liberation day. We're going to finish with that. We're going to finish with that. Oh, OK. Don't take away your. That's the punchline. OK. So we'll do this in chrono. We're going to do this in chronological order starting with 1985. But yeah, exactly what you said. Basically, what we're doing is looking at times where you have a big spread and then you stayed within that spread. Your high and low stayed within that spread for many days.

58:37And you were kind enough to run these stats for me today, even though you were as busy as I was and we were both so busy. And I looked at all of them that were five days or longer. and we decided to show the ones anything seven days or higher here because the five days was a little bit more noisy and this was more basically you have this big movement and then you're staying within it and then seeing how these break. So let's go to 1985 and go to June 13, 1985. One of the best years around, the year 5150 came out. So got that going for it. So go to, okay, so we're on June 13th. So that was your big day.

59:26Now let's just go out like a, okay, you're going through it. Good, perfect. Okay. So that's where you get above the high. Yeah. And in fact, just to speed things up, just put a nine in front of that. Let's go out to September and then point back to this day. so here we go there's the area so what we were trying to see is when you hold in there when they break do they tend to have head fakes or do they tend to break in the first direction that they're going and i will tell you when you looked at five or six days there were many head fakes where we poke up and then move down or poke down and then move up but you'll see as we go through this kind of a trend of what we're seeing.

1:00:11So we had a big wide day, then we ended up moving up and staying up. So now let's go out to July 15th of 86. I think that was the date or that's what I jotted down. Okay. So a little bit of a different position than where we are at now, because this is, you know, that day in question was underneath the 50 and all, but still worth looking at. and you're going sideways, very tight in there. And then you break down and just put a 10 in front of that to just kind of see what happens. And if you can point to that day. So that was your day in question. You held in tight, you went lower and you stayed lower.

1:00:51So again, it's going in the direction of your initial move. Let's go out, I think it's 414.87. Yeah.

1:01:04So again, in a different position that we're in, but a widespread. And we'll just kind of go out. It's just hovering in there.

1:01:14And it breaks down. And let's just put a 7 there. And this one was a little bit kind of like those other ones where you had a head fake. That's what I'm scared of. You had a head fake, and then you go in the other direction, and then you have more head fakes. A little bit different because we're underneath the 50. Let's go to the 88 example.

1:01:46Okay. Big spread. Holding in there tightly. And you break down. And then just, yeah, go out a bit. Let's see where I'm going with this. and again it goes in the direction of the initial um move there it broke down and it kept going lower we can jump to 1990

1:02:15and folks at home i mean spend more time on this than what we're doing but at least you know just kind of get an idea and we're always trying to use precedent analysis in in different ways shapes and forms. Okay. So there is your big day again, a completely different position than we're in now because of the, you know, it was underneath the 200 day, but hovering around there and then you go lower. And I think we go lower here, but let's just double check. Yeah. Go a lot lower than where we were. Uh, let's jump to 91, I think was next.

1:02:56Okay, a little closer to what we've got than the other ones. Going along, going along.

1:03:12Okay, it breaks. Edges up. Yeah, and let's go out three or four months.

1:03:21And again, going in the same direction that it initially went. Um, and let's jump to, I think we've got two more. So 2024.

1:03:35I cannot say enough times how nice it is to work with you, Justin, and be able to ask you anything. You're like, oh, I'm doing 15 other things, but I can do that for you too. Um, you know, so thank you. See if I can do it with my left hand while my right hand is writing. You're like a drummer, you know? Okay, so this one was an unusual one. And I'm just trying to see if, so 16468, 16464, it almost got there, but not quite. Yeah, and then it breaks down, but you go out and you'll see how this was a bit problematic. so you go down for a while you know but then you turn and go up so it's it it's hard because you could say if you're putting it in a camp it it broke lower and went lower but ultimately ended up going higher and then we'll finish on the on the punch line now okay uh almost took it away from you but yes you saved me you shot me down so huge spread again in a completely different position, but still that same concept of you've got this really widespread, you're going sideways.

1:04:51And then when you finally ultimately. And I believe this was the longest one at 11 days. You stayed inside that day, which, again, that was what was it? The third percentage wise, as President Trump mentioned at the time, it was the biggest point gain at the, you know, in history. But in terms of percentage gain, I believe was number three, if I'm not mistaken. So, well, so, yeah, breaks higher and we know what happened. We can go to today and you point to it. So, you know, this is just makes things hard because based on this. I want to just, you know, real quickly just mention that one of the things that we're going to look at is, you know, because 1218, this was a day that was really important to you.

1:05:40And why this example didn't come up is because we did we did undercut, you know, a couple of times here. You know, maybe we do something with the clothes staying in the range or a little tolerance. But that's why the 1218 didn't make this, because on the third day, the low was already below the range of 1218. So, exactly. You know, it's I still lean towards the that day and thinking that's what's going to happen going forward. But what Bill taught us to do is to not argue with the market. That's why we did go in with Swing Trader, even though we went in on the light side of things, because you don't want to argue with the market.

1:06:24If you argue with the market, let's go to October of 99. It's just worth, this is the one that always reminds me to never argue with the market. So you're chopping along on here and just ends forward day by day until we get to the important day. So you're going along, you know, 99 was a lot harder than people think it was. Boom. Okay, stop there. So now it goes into new high ground, but you've been chopped up in here because this would have felt a lot like what we had for the last couple of weeks, but for a lot, a longer period of time. And then you're reluctant. You know, if we were doing this show back then, we would be looking at a lot of cases and probably say, oh, well, you know, we don't feel that, you know, we're worried, blah, blah, blah.

1:07:14But then just keep going day by day and show what ends up happening. and so most people would then be saying okay well i missed that day i didn't do take any action um you can just advance one day at a time if you don't mind and folks would be saying i'm going to wait for a pullback i'm going to wait for a pullback and this is what can happen if you don't buy when on that initial thing then each day you're like oh when am i going to buy okay it's going to pull back in it's going to pull back in it's going to pull back in um you know like Imagine the stress building. It's stressing me out right now.

1:07:55Luckily, both of us were in that market. But look what ends up happening. Just go out to March.

1:08:05Yeah. And that's where it ended up topping, ultimately. So you did have a pullback in there in January. And probably at that point, you wouldn't have wanted that pullback because that looked pretty ugly. But then it chopped around. You know, Qualcomm topped right there. So, yeah, that's a big. So just a reminder that when the market moves, have some flexibility with it, even if you're, you know, if you're still concerned, you take little baby steps and you can always back away. So let's go back to our current chart with the homework for folks for this weekend is, again, I would do whatever positions you have.

1:08:44I would, you know, have a game plan for those and email it to yourself of, oh, not just on the downside, but on the on the positive side. Where are you going to pyramid into them? If it goes through a certain level, you're going to add to it. But make sure on the defensive side, because if we get some negative news over the weekend and we gap down to the 21 day or so, you don't want to be, you know, like a deer in the headlights and not know what to do. Because I don't know that we're out of the woods yet, but, you know, we're going to take baby steps and, you know, just take it one day at a time, one week at a time and see how this plays out.

1:09:24But I would be very precise with your buy points. I wouldn't do a shotgunning approach right now. I would be more slow and methodical just because of our recent past of just getting, you know, getting chopped up a lot. Yeah, no, makes sense. And, you know, as you were saying, take it one day at a time. I was thinking of the song from Valerie Bertinelli's, you know, wonderful show. Do you have a song for us? speaking of Valerie Bertinelli her son Wolfgang new album just came out today I listened to it as soon as I woke up it's called The End and when I wasn't in meetings it's been on a loop non-stop and that thing just completely rocks so my song is going to be anything off of there so my favorite song on there is I Really Wanna Don't Listen to That with Kids I'm just going to tell you But I really want to have this market go higher.

1:10:25So that's the song I'm going to go with. And again, the band is called Mammoth. This is its third album, and it's even better than the first two. So you're the one who brought up Valerie, so it's not my fault for going off on this. You know what? I was looking for a song. I was looking for a song. In the YouTube comments, one of the songs that came out was Let the Good Times Roll by The Cars. I don't like The Cars, man. I can't take that. Oh, how could you? Oh, I like cars, man. Next, you're going to tell me The Cure or something like that. Depeche Mode or God. I went to the concert, Depeche Mode, not too long ago.

1:11:00Yeah. Hollywood Bowl. And Tears for Fears, too. Oh, God. That's growing up in the 80s. You know, don't know what to tell you. My sister went to go see them. I'm like, why? Why are you going to see them? Well, that's going to wrap it up for us today. Thank you so much, Webby, for sharing all your knowledge and giving us something to think about and something to do over the weekend because we always are looking for things to do over the weekend, right? Thank you so much to all of our YouTube folks that were watching us live and also watching the archived version. You know, again, this is one of those things where you can watch it a few times and hopefully get some nuggets of wisdom out there.

1:11:37We will see you all next week. We're going to be live on IBD Live starting at 6.20 a.m. Pacific time, 10 minutes before the market open. And we're going to have a great jam-packed session. Mark Minervini is going to be on the podcast next week. So hope you tune in for that. And we'll see you all next week. Take care, everybody, and have a great weekend. Bye-bye now.

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