Indexes Pause But Strong Uptrend Intact. Oracle, Netflix, AppLovin In Focus.

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0:31Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Thursday, October 9th. It's Alexis Garcia here. And the major indexes retreated from record highs today, but the market rally remains intact. And it also looks like the rally in gold took a little bit of a breather after surpassing the$4 ,000 price level. And here with me to help break down all that you need to know about today's market action is IBD News Editor Ed Carson. So Ed, what's on deck for us today? I want to take a look at Oracle, Netflix, and AppLovin, Alexi. All right. Well, we'll get to those three stocks, but let's just check in quickly and see how the index is finished.

1:15The S &P 500 down three-tenths of a percent today. The NASDAQ down fractionally. The Dow dropping half a percent. And small caps also down a half a percent. So, Ed, give me your thoughts on the market action today as I get our trusty market surge chart up. Not too bad of a day. We're on the NASDAQ here. You know, it did come off those lows today. It's still closed close to those record highs from yesterday. So thoughts here. Yeah, the NASDAQ in particular, but all the indexes came off lows. The NASDAQ, S &P 500, and the Russell 2000 didn't even touch their 10-day line. The Dow came down to the 21-day line almost, but also paired losses.

2:00So, I mean, it's hard to get too worked up about that. I mean, there were some concerns like the government shutdown maybe taking longer than people had thought, maybe hoped a couple of days ago that maybe there'd be a resolution. China instituted a lot of export curbs on rare earths, some stuff related to EV batteries, sort of putting up their own things. That could be an issue. It didn't seem to really hit stocks too much. Again, when we've had some negative news, the market has tended to be resilient and it tends to bounce back quickly. Finding support at the 10-day, 21-day line is just fine.

2:39And on the NASDAQ, it was just on the verge, just on the verge of getting a little extended, you know, yesterday. So just a pause, you know, just a little bit is probably healthy. So leading stocks generally acted well. Yeah, there's a few losers. We'll look at Apple Lovin. But a lot of them acted well. There wasn't too much chart damage out there. So, you know, I thought it was a very, if you're going to have losing days, this is the way you want to have losing days. Yeah, well said. And let's take a look at RSP just in terms of market breadth here, because this was down about eight-tenths of a percent today, testing the 21-day line.

3:13So in terms of the participants here, Ed, what are your thoughts? Yeah, this one was a little weaker. NVIDIA helped the major index, including S &P. So that sort of strips out with RSP. You lose some of that. But even so, one good day and you're almost at record highs. I mean, so it's hard to – the 21-day line is pretty close. It really wouldn't take much to get up there. RSP has obviously been lagging. It's been a tech-led rally and some other things, mega cap rally. So it's been lagging, but even here, not doing too badly. And let's look at QQEW. That's the NASDAQ 100 equal-weighted ETF. Again, this one down about six-tenths of a percent today, but still holding well above the short-term moving averages.

3:58Yeah, a little weaker than NASDAQ, obviously, but this looks fine. It's right there, right there at highs. All right. Well, let's take a look at some sectors, starting with FFTY. That's the IBD 50 ETX. This one down nine-tenths of a percent today. But again, holding or trying to hold these gains from a 3.4 percent gain yesterday, Ed. So thoughts here on where growth stocks seem to be acting well still. Yeah. You know, modest loss here all, you know, in the context. And again, the action of prior couple of days, Tuesday, we sell off on news Oracle in part, but it comes way off low. So it took that in stride.

4:40And then there was honestly, you know, NVIDIA saying positive things, but NVIDIA's CEO always says positive things. He's always bullish. I mean, people could have shrugged it off and said market rally. So resilient to bad news, upbeat on good news, you know, a good positive reaction to good news. Very strong action for the market and especially growth stocks. And let's take a look at GLD, Ed. I know you and the IBD Live team talked a lot about gold and some other commodities this morning and how investors should be looking at that rally there. So I just want to note, if you're interested in getting more analysis on that sector, that clip is posted on to Investors.com and our YouTube channel.

5:21But we see gold taking a bit of a breather today. And that's been the interesting thing about this market. We have growth and gold moving, but this down 1.8 % today. Yeah, and it was not really a surprise. It had gone up a lot, and the dollar had been stronger lately, which has been one reason why gold has been so strong. It's just a modest bounce for the dollar. I don't want to make too much of it. But that's – so look, but it's still not near the 10-day line. It would take another day like today just to get to the 10-day line. So if you put in context, it's still up for the week. Like, you know, so it's not, you know, it's hard to look at this and go, oh, no, I mean, that's a solid week.

5:59It's just, you know, and it's been very steady, steady and strong. So just really impressive. I mean, this is why we talk about not wanting to buy these levels because and definitely like if you go to GDX, that's the miners. And those tend to outperform on either side. And so that was down 4.5. So if you were buying a miner today, you could easily have been down 4%, 5%, 6%, even more on certain stocks. But obviously, for anybody who bought it at a reasonable price, these names, you're way up and there's no reason to sell.

6:47and eliminate cyber threats in minutes. It helps your security team move faster at the work that matters most to protect the business now and delivers insights to help them predict what's next. ReliaQuest, agentic defense for the enterprise. Learn more at ReliaQuest.com. That's R-E-L-I-A-Q-U-E-S-T dot com. All right, Ed. Well, let's take a look at some individual stocks, starting with Oracle. This one, a gain of 3.1 % today. Getting closer to this 300 level, Ed. And I think the story really here is we saw this big gap up on earnings back here in September, and it's really tried to hold those gains.

7:25It tested the 21-day line here. But thoughts here on the chart? Yeah, they announced a huge backlog on things, and so that really triggered it. But it did get back away, so that wasn't great. This is one reason why breakaway gaps like that can be great. They can also not work out. It's found support of the 21-day line. Tuesday, there was a report saying that they're basically losing money on some of their NVIDIA chips and just in general, their margins on their data, their cloud computing rentals were pretty low. But there was another report saying that really wasn't true or overblown. So found support, bounced back, and now it's up there.

8:07I think if you do a downward sloping trend line from the top of this thing, it's right around there. It's, I think, right at that 300 level. So you punch above that. I think that would be an early entry. This could be an emerging base. Again, it's not great that it fell back, but it did find support where you'd want to. It showed resilience. You know, if the market, you know, if the market wanted to start selling off on AI concerns and always, you know, if the market wants to, there's always, there's an argument for it. There's an argument for why, oh, maybe things are overblown or like, but it hasn't happened.

8:36The market says, no, I, you know, it's, it's not dealing with that. So this was really positive for not just Oracle, but for the market, the way this stock and the market reacted to the Oracle news. All right. Well, let's hop on over to Netflix, Ed. I'll switch back to the daily here. This went up 1.4 percent today. And again, looks like it crossed above the 50-day line yesterday, but followed that up with another strong move today. So thoughts here. Yeah. And this sounds like I'm not a real great practitioner of it, but there's like this could be a shakeout plus three pattern, you know, have a pretty big violent sell off and then boom, boom, boom.

9:13You know, that is a sort of an unusual pattern, but can be strong. And so that would that if you do a trend line from the top of this base, it's coming right up. It's a little bit like or it depends on how you do it. It's right on it, right above it. You know, so it's that could be an early entry. This stock sold off. I mean, this one undercut the lows of the base, but it came right back up. So sometimes that shakeout can be a positive even cut. Whether it's not a shakeout plus three, it definitely was a shakeout because it undercut the low of the base. It came right back up. I mean, there were some boycott concerns like Elon Musk was sort of fanning the flames of a boycott.

9:47I don't know how serious that really came, but the stock has come right back. The volume hasn't been as strong on the upside as it was on the downside. The relative strength line is, you know, because this has been consolidating for several months, that's not the greatest thing either. But it is bouncing back. Earnings are in less than two weeks. But if you wanted to be buying it around here, this could be an opportunity. Maybe you build enough cushion in something like that. It's just definitely a nice bounce back this past several days. All right. Well, Ed, let's wrap this up with App 11. This one, a loser today, down at 4.7 percent, right at the 600 level here, Ed.

10:29But we've seen a nice run, but it looks like pulling back here over the last couple of weeks. So what are your thoughts here? Yeah, this one's really a tough spot here. I mean, you see all those little dots above the chart. Those are ants. And that's a positive sign in the sense of a lot of volume in there. But when you see a lot of ants, those ant indicators, after a big run, that's often a sign of, OK, well, maybe the stock's going to peak out, but you want to wait for the next consolidation. But in the short run, on Monday, huge sell-off. And if you could go to an intraday, you can see how this one just five-day minute chart.

11:03You can see, boy, there is that moment on the left-hand side. There is a Bloomberg report of an SEC probe, and it just tumbled. It did come off a little low. It actually touched the 10-week line on that day, bounced back a little. The next day, it bounced back again. So I totally see, you know, while Monday's action was clearly something you could have sold because it plunged through the 21-day line. You can go back to a daily. You know, it did bounce back off the lows and then it bounced on Tuesday back of the 21-day line. But now it's fading again. You know, it's like this seems like a really key level.

11:37It did close above 600. It did close above Monday's low. But I think investors should definitely at least be considering some partial sales. If you bought somewhere in August, whether it was like 370 or 430 or 473, there were some buy points. You should at least be considering that. I mean, an SE probe is dangerous. You don't know how that's going to go. This might all blow over and everybody forgets about it and everything's fine. Or it could trigger some real, real losses when the SEC gets involved. That could, you know, if there's more of that. So, again, you could wait. It could bounce off the 50-day line.

12:11But I think the problem there is then you're waiting for it to fall a lot more. And do you want to be giving up all those gains before starting and decisively breaking that before you decide I'm going to get out? At that point, you're giving up the bulk of the gains in many cases from these recent things. So it's really tricky, but I think investors should be who own it, like should at least be considering that. And it definitely should have rules. Well, how are you going to scale out? You know, whether it's this point, you don't have to listen to me, but you should have some rules. You know, how are you getting out?

12:43So make sure that you balance your desire for big long-term gains versus the desire, I want to make sure I make money on this stock. You don't want to turn a winner, a big winner into a tiny winner or even a loser. So definitely have some kind of sell rules out there. So that works for you. Yeah, and I just switched over to the weekly here, Ed, and you could see how it flirted with that 10-week line. But definitely one to keep an eye on there for investors in App11. Ed, thank you so much for your analysis today. I know we're going to be starting up our next cycle of earnings cheat sheet. Do you have a little preview of what we'll be talking about for that coming tomorrow?

13:30Yeah, we'll be talking about Taiwan Semiconductor, and we'll be talking about a bunch of financials. There's a lot of financials coming out next week. Yeah, so stay tuned for that. That'll drop tomorrow morning. If you're not sick of us already, you may be. It's fine. But, Ed, thanks so much for your insights today. Thank you. All right. Well, that wraps it up for this episode of Stock Market Today. But you can always come back here for more market analysis starting tomorrow morning with IBD Live. You can head on over to investors.com slash IBD live for all the information there. And of course, tomorrow on Friday, Justin Nielsen and Mike Webster will be doing their special extended version of Stock Market today to recap the week.

14:14So you won't want to miss that. So thank you so much for watching and we'll see you right back here tomorrow.

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