Indexes Whipsaw Around Key Levels; TG Therapeutics, Enova, Bloom Energy In Focus

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0:25Ed Carson:Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Tuesday, June 9th. It's Alyssa Coram here and a roller coaster ride in the market today. A severe sell-off, but a lot of buyers coming into the close. Where does that leave investors? And how should we position our portfolios? Here now to discuss the action in today's session is my colleague, Ed Carson. Ed, what a day. What a day. And, you know, my view of the market could have changed every 20 minutes for sure. It was a nice close. But I want to take a look at TJ Therapeutics, Inova, and Bloom Energy. All right. A lot to discuss.

1:05Ed Carson:So let's get to it. Here's a look at the S &P 500, which finished the day down just a quarter of a percent after coming close to the 50-day moving average. You know, Jim Ropel, hedge fund manager and Ropel Report founder, said on our monthly market report show last night that he envisioned a quote unquote inevitable dance with the 50 day line for the major indexes. I'm not sure he envisioned that happening today in just one day's time. But that's exactly what we saw for the Nasdaq composite finishing down 1 percent, but well off lows. Yeah, I think the NASDAQ was up 1.3 % at one point and down almost 3.7%.

1:51And then to close down 1%, yeah, wild day. You know, the day started with the NASDAQ, S &P, and Russell moving above their 21-day line. So look, oh, here we go. We're rebounding. And then whoosh, 20 minutes or so into the session, came down. AI and tech led. There was some – a data center was paused. There was a bearish report on opticals. And there might just be jitters ahead of CPI report tomorrow, Oracle earnings, SpaceX, IPO, whatever, came down. And then Trump suggested we're going to have to retaliate after Apache helicopter was shot down overnight. But then the market seemed to rebound.

2:28I mean, it was interesting. It was like a few minutes after Trump said that. I mean, like there was another sell-off. And then pretty much right after that, we started recovering. And I don't know. I mean, I think that, look, we're trading between the 50-day and 21-day line now on a lot of these indexes. Breaking that would be really, really negative. You know, getting above the 21-day line would be positive. I think investors probably could be cutting exposure, even if they're not trying to, because they're cutting some losers or laggards. And sometimes, you know, they're triggering these sell signals.

3:02If you had a high ATR stock, some of them were down 10 % today. It's like, you know, even near the close. And, you know, so cutting winners that were round tripping. It's not just the mid-late May. You know, clearly, if you bought something in mid-late May, there's a very good chance you had to sell those. But we're basically back to where we were at the end of April, that first thing. So if you were buying stuff right there, some of those stocks and those gains might have been big. You don't want to turn those into losers. So even if you're not trying to cut exposure, you might be cutting exposure in this kind of environment.

3:36And again, if the road gets a little trickier, you tap the brakes, it doesn't mean you stop. It doesn't mean you go home and you're going to cash, but you do want to take some maybe incremental action. And if conditions change and improve, then you can pick up the gas again.

3:49Ed Carson:Exactly. Yeah. Some level of lightening up, depending on your time frame, with the major character change that we are seeing in the market this week. Ed, I think the trick from here is going to be there are traders out there who have low cost basis gains from early April. And if we do see a continuation of this uptrend with choppy pullbacks to the 50 day line along the way, I mean, if you study the late 90s, you did see some of that, you know, preserving the profits. over the last couple of months versus trying to be patient for even more profits in a couple of weeks or months if we do ultimately see a continuation of the uptrend.

4:42Ed Carson:And that's the age-old question, right? Do I sell for a shorter-term profit? Do I hold for a longer-term gain? And we are seeing some turbulence here. I would say that it is at least somewhat positive to see the close off lows today. I think if we would have closed at the dead lows here, like we did on Friday, from a technical perspective, you know, not seeing any sort of support coming in, I think would be concerning. And that's not to say we continue to go down from here. But the way that we're doing it, right, the way that we're pulling back, the way that we're digesting, I think also matters.

5:22Ed Carson:And then in terms of a couple of technical levels that we are watching that May 19th low and it looked and even the Friday low and I think we closed a hair below the Friday low today on the NASDAQ. I think the S &P it was it was really close to the Friday low perhaps closing right above it by a few points. I believe you can check me on that and we are still holding above that May 19th low. So maybe, you know, just a big shake out here. But some sort of base building and digestion over the next couple of weeks seems more likely now versus a quick bounce back to highs. But you never know what we're going to get.

6:11We could rally off the CPI, Oracle, SpaceX. I mean, or it could be all selling or it could be choppy. We could rally on one sell off on another. So you're right. There's a lot of things that could happen. I'd also say like, I mean, yeah, there's that tension. And also if you do decide tactically to sell things just because of individual stock reasons, if nothing else, just know that you can get back. If we go back above the 21-day line and we get through this news cycle, because after this week, there really isn't that much on the horizon that's like on the calendar. I mean, there's always news.

6:44So if we turn higher, you can always buy something. And maybe it's a better stock than the one you're selling because some of these names might be coming off. Some held up well, others did not. So maybe ditching the ones that are shaky, you know, may end up being the right move and you can still get in. So a lot of different strategies, you definitely just have to be stick to your rules and different investors, different ones and stay flexible. I mean, you know, investors should have a different mindset than they did two or three days ago, you know, where they were on Thursday and where they are now and where we are on Friday could be very different from where we are.

7:17And I don't know which way that is. If I did, I'd either be buying like crazy or selling like crazy if I knew where we were going. You just have to take it day by day. And some of these days feel like weeks.

7:28Ed Carson:Yeah, they sure do. So we'll continue to keep an eye on the May 19th low. Also, if Webby were here, I'm sure he'd be looking at some sort of 50 % retracement from the recent high to today's low, wanting to see us get back in the middle of that today's high with it being a downside reversal. And then, of course, the Friday downside reversal as well. Those are all levels that we are keeping a close eye on. And then, Ed, I think you make a really great point about the leaders, right? What stocks are holding up during this period? Which ones are breaking down? That's going to be important in terms of the mindset, because I think a lot of investors can get overwhelmed by the fear or just not wanting to lose money versus thinking about, okay, what are the opportunities going to be potentially in a few weeks time?

8:30Ed Carson:And I think selling now, getting ready for, you know, the gut punch on the on the way down can help you get your mind ready to buy, you know, before things are back at new highs, right? Maybe this pullback is going to offer some really solid buying opportunities in the leaders. We'll have to see. Absolutely. Okay, moving on. Let's now take a look at some other index charts. Here's a quick look at small caps, Ed, closing in positive territory today. Yeah, and that was a nice move there because that was undercutting things. There was actually, I think the NASDAQ breadth might've been negative, but NYSE was definitely positive.

9:15I think overall it was net positive. You get out of sight of tech and AI, a lot of sectors are positive. We're going to look at some ETFs. So yeah, there was some strength here. I think one of the questions is, okay, if the market rebounds generally, is tech going to reclaim the leadership? Are we going to see other sectors take the lead? Is it going to be a broader leadership? I don't know. But those are the kind of questions and things. So you definitely want to be building up a lot of different things going on. So this was encouraging. The Dow was encouraging. The Dow really, you know, unlike the Russell or S &P, and especially the NASDAQ, the Dow wasn't getting close to the 50-day line.

9:53It only undercut the 21-day and closed higher. So, yeah, so that was positive.

10:00Ed Carson:Yes. And let's take a look at blue chips, also positive on the day, Ed, finding support at the 21 day. Yep, yep. And it's, you know, that one, look, if the market looked like this, we'd all be like, what? No big deal. It's just another modest pullback. We'd say, bye, we're getting a bounce off the 21 day. Yeah, we might be saying bye. There might have been buying opportunities. We'd be, yeah, it would be, you know, so, yeah, it would definitely be different on that front. You know, obviously the RS line is picking up this week, but it's been lagging for the last few months. So I don't know if that can really continue for long if the market picks up.

10:37Ed Carson:Okay. Adding more context to today's action, here's a look at the 10-year Treasury yield dipping on the day, Ed. also oil edging lower. So to see the market down when you have oil, which usually provides a little bit of a boost, what does that tell you? Yeah, that was a little concerning because you'd almost like to, I mean, I think the market sort of discounted concerns about that the Trump retaliation would be that fierce. It might be more token or at least measured. And there's this hopeful on that. So oil coming down as a positive, treasury yields dipping. I mean, obviously the trend isn't like.

11:18But yeah, so that shows you that there just seems to be concerns about AI and chips. And again, that's where also you see, we're seeing the Russell and Dow up. There's clearly concerns there, you know, in certain areas that are very strong. I mean, these big high ATR AI stocks, rest of the market is not so bad. So it's, it really depends on how, where you're looking in this market. RSP was almost at a record high intraday, came back down, but then rallied pretty well here, looking very good, looking stronger than the Dow or the Russell.

11:52Ed Carson:Yeah. So to your point about where we're seeing the weakness and where we're seeing the strength. Okay, let's go to IYT. This is the transports up 1.3 % on the day. So another area that we're starting to see some renewed relative strength. Yeah. And that's really picking up in the last few weeks. And yeah, I mean, it's also a positive sign about the economy. You know, even though we've been worried about things, about this and that, that's a positive. So yeah, that's looking very strong. Some of the, a lot of the names are extended, unfortunately, at this point. You know, the banks, that came on a little bit, a pair gained somewhat.

12:31But yeah, there's some banks that are out there. Some are already extended. So the regional banks aren't the leaders, But it does show you there's some some pick up there. Health care, you know, that's been picking up some of the health insurers, some of the big cap, you know, drug makers, some medical products, biotech. There's a lot of interesting things here. Defensive growth often does well in choppy markets. So, again, which of these sectors will lead if the market really takes off? You know, that doesn't mean that this has to sell off, but maybe this returns to sort of a laggard or a best in line.

13:06You know, and that's just something that's, you know, you just have to know that while you're building these watch lists, you don't know what's going to lead the next little stretch. Yeah.

13:15Ed Carson:And here's a look at the chip sector, which had been leading now, hitting a little bit of a rocky patch here, but holding on, closing above the 21-day line today. I mean, putting this in context, Ed, what an incredible move that we've seen over the last couple of months for chips. So on a weekly chart, wouldn't be surprising to see a continuation of the digestion after this power that we've had. Your take on how this is acting, I know you've been trading SMH. Yeah, I sold about a third of it when it came through the 21-day line. I was looking for some way to cut, and this was one way. It wasn't necessarily that I had to cut a third of this, but I want to cut my exposure a little bit.

14:02I probably would have done some more if it closed at the lows here. But also maybe I was a little busy. I was trying to figure out the news. And by the time I figured out the news, it was starting to rally. So I was like, I'll see how it goes. And we'll see. I mean, but, you know, if it closes below Friday's low or gets below, I might sell some more. But, yeah. So, I mean, you're right. It could still definitely go on. This looks doesn't look too bad. The fact that it's above the 21-day line. is a real positive given that we're concerned about AI, but the chips are still doing pretty well.

14:34Ed Carson:And I would say if you extrapolate this action and you're thinking about the leading stocks within this sector, a lot of them have been runaway trains. And maybe now this can give us another opportunity to buy off of an actual pivot versus... There's one more name, one name that's in here that is sort of looks like this is Taiwan Semi and they'll report sales tomorrow morning and they make chips for everybody, basically, it seems like. So this has held up pretty well. And you have that line there. I mean, I guess somebody could have treated as being in a buy area, but it's obviously extremely volatile.

15:12But this is holding up pretty well. You know, sometimes I go back and forth between Taiwan Semi and SMH. But, you know, but, you know, SMH has been stronger because it's had better names. So this is just to see how this one report comes in. It's not the biggest because it's only monthly sales, but it's still important.

15:29Ed Carson:Yes, it is. Good note there. Last ETF we're going to be taking a look at, and that is software. This is quite a roller coaster ride over the last couple of weeks. We saw some outperformance off the lows, then an acceleration, but it's given back that move and then some, Ed. So what's going on here? Yeah, there was sort of a spot where it gapped up above 80, like well below that. I mean, some people were going, look, talk about, you know, like right in there, like when it was sort of moving above there, man, it's given up almost all of that. I mean, it's not, it's obviously not at the lows, but that seemed like if you were really going to cheat that amount of in a place, you could have done it.

16:09I mean, you could have done it earlier, but then you probably would have gotten shaken out by the 50 day. So, you know, it just feels like that's not great. And a lot of things have come off. And I think part of the reason the market has struggled is that there's been some software results that have not been well received. Not the worst, but a lot of names have come off. So that's software recovery. I don't know why it's come off so much, but yeah, not great. Most finance teams are spending on the wrong things. Expense reports,

16:40Ed Carson:spend policy PDFs that nobody reads, a close that stretches into weeks. That's maintenance, not momentum. It's time to get Brex AF, a Gentic finance that eliminates that work before it starts. Learn more at brex.com slash AF. Yeah. Okay. Let's take a look at some individual names. Here's a look at TGTX. Showing strength on the day and finishing at session highs, which a lot of stocks didn't necessarily see today. This name up 6 % volume above average. So continuing its climb as it forges the right side of this handle, arguably actionable last week. I could see traders maybe even adding to their positions today.

17:24Ed Carson:What's your read on this, Ed? Yeah. I mean, yeah, I think that's exactly right. You could have done it last week when it moved there. Then today was a place to do it. You know, the RS line is basically at the highest levels, you know, you know, like 10 months, you know, so, you know, that's definitely improving, you know, it's, it's not this one of this, oh, it's been up for a week or two. So, you know, some positives, it is very volatile still. You know, it wouldn't be the worst thing if this came up a little bit and then paused around the handle. This is long enough basically to be its own base or close enough, honestly.

18:01So, but yeah, this has been placed this year. a lot of healthcare names are doing well. This one was one that actually was actionable. A lot of other names, not so much. There was some in the healthcare space. I didn't see a lot because there's names that made positive moves. The earnings have been, you know, there's been stronger growth. Some of the positive reasons why it's rallied is that they may be able to expand, you know, how it's produced. And that also could maybe reduce the expensive trials they've been running, because I think that's been one reason why the earnings have sometimes fallen short.

18:34So you might get a tailwind on both sides on that. Yeah. But this is not your super low risk. I mean, the ATR doesn't seem that high, but it feels higher. You know, it's only 4%, but it's, you know, because there have been some short days, but it's not a tight, tight base. That's for sure. Mm-hmm.

18:54Ed Carson:Next on our list to check in on, let's take a look at ticker ENVAED. The same in the financial sector, breaking out of a cup with handle, up almost 5 % on the day. Yeah. And this is one that makes short-term loans. And this is something, you know, this is an area the market's doing all right, whether it's pawn shops or some short-term loans. There's a few of these names. And this is one of them. The revenue growth has been picking up. I think it's expected to pick up for a couple more quarters. The RS line is at a high. You know, it found support at the 10-week line. You know, I'm not sure where it is above the 10-week line, maybe 7%.

19:39I'm just trying to think about how that is.

19:42Ed Carson:It's about 8.6 % above the 10-week line. Yeah, so it's getting up there. So that still could still be could be doing something in there. Again, it's hard to make buys in this kind of market. Because I mean, I know that this did very well, but it just feels more vols. It doesn't feel like things will hold. But at the very least, you know, you could also say, you know, this day is done, you might say, okay, now I'm just going to wait, see if it pauses a little bit for a few days. And, you know, then then goes again, maybe with just a few little bit of catch up on, you know, on the moving averages, just a touch.

20:12But this this is going well. It has decent growth. This is not a no growth company or anything. So yeah, I like the way this has been acting.

20:22Ed Carson:Yeah. And some non-tech exposure. But since we are in an AI rally, a lot of AI stocks are trying to find their footing after recent turbulence. Let's take a look at one. Here's Bloom Energy up 2.4 % on the day. So it did close positive. So it has that going for it. But like a lot of stocks, a wild day to day. We did get an undercut of a previous reversal low. So I think that was significant. Also, Ed, a touch of the 50-day. And I assume, yeah, a test of the 10-week is in progress here for this high-flying name. Yeah. I mean, could you also take a look maybe at a five minute or some 10 minutes, some kind of intraday?

21:12Because this was up 10 % early on and then gave it all back, did all that undercutting testing, and then it found some support. So really wild day. And going back to the daily, it's much like the NASDAQ. It's sort of bracketed between the 21-day and the 50-day line. There's also the 10-day line in there. So this can go in a lot of places. When you have an ATR of nine or so, and when the market has an outside day like that, oh boy, you can have, I mean, just enormous swings. I mean, you know, you could have bought this. I mean, what the heck? But that is, this will look great in hindsight. This shoots up to 350 and people say, oh, I should have bought it.

21:54It's like, man, the NASDAQ was down 3.7 % when this hit a low. And then what do you do? What do you do here? Let's say it breaks that trend line. Well, now it's like 12%, 13 % above the 50-day line. It's just – that's part of what makes a volatile market difficult because it's easy to get shaken out. But it's also hard to find places to buy. I mean, yes, in hindsight, it'll look obvious. But, you know, it's not obvious. I don't know how – I know you've played this before. And it's just very tricky. If this were a tighter market, you know, it would be easier to find spotlights. I'd feel more comfortable.