Just A Pullback Or Something More? DoorDash, BWX Tech, Howmet Aero In Focus.

27:57I was like, well, that's viable, you know, and you never want to. It's something that Bill and I, Bill O 'Neill, the founder of IBD, and I would always put on our institutional watch list, the Nesme list back in the day. Whenever the market was in trouble, we'd go, OK, it's time for Johnson and Johnson. We had a couple others that we'd go to. And it's when we're putting Johnson & Johnson on, you just don't want to be in the market. So that bothers me. That's a message, right? That's Bill sending a message. Absolutely. Now, one of the areas that has been strong and looks like it's continuing is ITA, which is the U.S.

28:35Aerospace and Defense, the iShares version of that. We'll talk about an aerospace defense stock today. Lots of good ones in that group right now. Yes, absolutely. XLY looked really interesting. This was something we almost put on Swing Trader. And again, notably RSPD, which is the consumer discretionary equal weighted, that was getting supported as 50-day moving average line. One of the problems with going for XLY is just that Amazon looks a little poor right now below its 50-day moving average line. And that's, along with Tesla, one of the big components in the XLY. Those two together are about 40%.

29:14Yeah, and I do have a position in the Tesla. In Tesla. Perfect. And XLU, utilities, this has kind of been a mixed bag. Normally, you would think of this as defensive, but there's so much that's AI adjacent. This had a really good day. And the Utes looked good, too. The Utes. Yeah, Utes, just ahead of that a little bit. But ARKK, which is, you know, tends to be a little bit more risk on that got support right at the top of this base, right at its 21 day moving average line. Again, a nice follow up to the upside reversal from yesterday. GDX, the gold miners, kind of a top area that was up 2 percent today, kind of leading a lot of the ETFs, as well as XBI.

30:03Biotech had a strong day today. So what do you make of, again, you know, a lot of these, you already kind of mentioned it, that it's a little disturbing that some of the groups that you don't typically see as leaders are the ones that were up the most today. But, you know, is this an area where you would maybe look at the weekly charts or is it preparing you to maybe be ready for some rotation, some more rotation? Well, you know, that's a good question. And we really kind of have to wait to see because it's kind of like when you go into a big risk event, whether it's a big Fed or election or a big earnings announcement, like back when like an NVIDIA earnings was like you just had to sit and wait.

30:52I mean, the way I'm personally looking at things is that we've got another up day and then we roll hard with the precedent. So it's really hard to get that out of my mind. But looking at these individually, they look normal. From the worst of the list, the NLR looked normal. The best of the list, the XBI, looks normal. And then that ARKK, and they've got, and Kathy's got a bunch of junk in there, but she also has some good heat in there as well, that the ARKK looked really good. We almost put that on Swing Trader today because it got support two ways or three ways at$80, not as important for an ETF, but round numbers, but at the top of the base and at the 21 day.

31:41And then you had your move up. So this is, you know, obviously Tesla, as I mentioned, I have a position in that is her big play there. But there's a bunch of other things in there. And it really was a mixed bag because I played through all of her holdings earlier when we were going to put it on. And I was just like, let's just give it another day and see. So I'm kind of sitting back and just saying, you know what? I'm just going to cool things down for another two days and just let the market prove itself. But the evidence based on what we've seen so far and is going to be more of a mixed bag as we go through my trade station charts in a little bit, that there's mixed signals there.

32:23And again, it's just, just be careful with things. And it just really demand near perfection for any new positions and really any existing positions because of what we saw with the A-Labs of the world and the oracles and things like that. I'm Laura Thurow with Baird Private Wealth Management. You've been doing all the right things, saving, investing, building toward your goals. Health care can be a major expense today and an even greater one over time. Tools like long-term care insurance or a smart health savings account strategy can help protect what you've worked so hard to build. Learn more at BairdWealth.com slash WSJ Guidebook.

33:10Now, a few areas, you know, going over to some individual stocks that were looking decent today. DoorDash, this is one that I actually have kept because I've got a decent profit on it. So just forming what looks like to be a handle here. Got support at the 21-day moving average line. Not much of a correction. And nice bounce on the 21-day moving average line. And not a big move today, but it was making some progress. Yeah, and I like the setup. I like how tight it's been. And, you know, you've got both Uber, Lyft, and this one that are kind of in the same general space. And let's pull up Uber for a second.

33:57And what I don't like about Uber is the volatility that it's had, you know, recently over the last two weeks. Tried to break out, failed, but then went back up. And it didn't really fail, but just drifted down, whereas Lyft is acting stronger. bigger but door dash looks like it's the adult in the room like lift just moves up and it's got some new stuff but this looks good and why i wanted to go over it frankly is i'm stuck in a hotel where there's no places to eat you know because i'm very restricted on what i can eat with my diet um and i was talking to my better half and she's like well why don't you try door dash and i've never tried door dash and so whenever i'm like going to try something i put my peter lynch hat on and go, yeah, you know, there's probably a lot of people like me, the old fogies who are finally like, ah, I guess I should try that DoorDash thing, you know?

34:49But, you know, all the younger kids out there, or by younger, I mean like 40 and younger, God, we're old, that they probably use it on a weekly, you know, weekly. Well, you're old too, dude. Just not as old. But anyways, I like having that aspect to it of something that I can understand versus with a chip stock is like, okay, well, is Intel really better than Alab? And is it better than the SMH? Let's go to the weekly on this one. And let's scroll down to the quarterly numbers. That's what I like to see. So when you're in doubt about something and you want to know the quality of it, it's great that the EPS is growing like that.

35:32But what I like is the sales stability at a high number. The fact that it's 20 % this whole way, to me, that's even better than if there was a couple of 30s or 40s in there because it's stable. So if you can picture in your mind a line like that green line, but that green line is on earnings. But if we had one on sales, just really, really steady growth. Steady means predictable institutions like predictable stocks from a fundamental standpoint. And so do individuals. Let's go up to the annual numbers for a second. So it had a checkered past with negative numbers, but most companies start off negative and eventually get positive.

36:14But look at those estimates. Wow. Is that 59 % estimate there? That's huge for next year. And the green triangle means that they're getting revised up. Yeah. So that's great. And if I do end up going to use DoorDash tonight for my dinner, then I will let you know how it goes. You'll report back next week? Yes. Well, and it's also, you know, look, 752 % on the annual for the estimate. You know, it's one thing when you're going from a smaller number. But at, you know, 247 EPS for the annual and still growing at 59%, that's pretty impressive. And it should be mentioned that for those that are looking at this and wondering what these hashtags are or pound signs, if you're used to an old phone, that's when we're going from negative to positive and doing a calculation that way.

37:06That was a Bill thing because he hated seeing NAs in there or dashes or whatever. He wanted to give them credit when they were turning positive. So, yeah. So I think that looks good and probably something if it goes next week, we'll be putting it on Swing Trader and then buying it after that, 30 minutes after. BWXT, this is, again, there's a lot of these AI adjacent plays. This does have a little bit of exposure on the nuclear side, power generation and utility. So it's a little bit of all of that wrapped up into one. Again, I do have a position in this and we did put it on Swing Trader today.

37:44So I bought it 30 minutes after. I would have bought it back. I had it personally, and then I sold it to put it on Swing Trader, and then I was having PC problems. So I didn't get a chance to buy it back. But I really like the setup on here because you have that gap up and then a normal basing structure here. I still think it's in position. I think it's buyable right here. And certainly to add to it if it takes out the highs from earlier this week. And, you know, I was talking to my father last week or the week before because he was trading the NLR. And he also mentioned this one to me. And so I was looking at it.

38:23And there's some problems with it, right? Like, look at the – let's go to the quarterly numbers on the weekly. If, you know, the sales growth – just compare it to what we just saw with the DoorDash. The sales growth is not steady the way it was, and it's not as high. and the earnings on a quarterly basis are all over the place. Now, obviously, this is a bet on the future. So that's what you, you know, why. Whereas at DoorDash, it's not a bet on the future. It's better on the present and the future. And this one, the estimate going out next year only being, you know, a single digit bothers me. But the chart action and holding that big gap up in a constructive way, and you can see that on here that it was tight at the bottom of the base, got support right at the 10-week line, very constructive.

39:18And being in the same general space as like the OCLOS of the world, I would rather go with something like this if you're recommending a stock on a service or something just because the volatility isn't as crazy. But then you're not going to have the upswings either. So if you go with something tamer, you're not going to have the upside. If you go for the upside, you're going to have a lot of volatility. Yeah, it's a trade-off, right? You got to make a decision and kind of, you know, kind of live with that. And you can't have it both ways. OK, to wrap things up here, we mentioned that we were going to talk about an aerospace stock, Howmet Aerospace.

39:58This one has been on a radar for a while. It did have this cup base. So it really hasn't been participating while the market was going to new highs. but it certainly had a good day today, up one and three quarters percent and right on the cusp of this 193.26 previous high. So what I like about this stock isn't the stock, it's the group, you know, and I was looking at the, when I was screening earlier, there's so many stocks in this group that were looking good. And we looked at the ITA and it just didn't make sense. Like the ITA, which is the ETF for the group, just didn't look as good as a lot of the individual stocks.

40:40So it's not really that it's this one, but the defense area looks to be a place where money is flowing into as more steady type of money. Let's go back to the monthly chart of the stock.

41:00What I love about this is that it's proven over a long period of time that it's a leading stock. And you can tell that on monthly charts, the character of a stock. When I think of character, I always think of what Jesse Livermore had in his book, How to Trade in Stocks, about the character of stocks are just like people. And this is a leading stock by definition because of the way that RS line has handled itself versus its moving averages on a monthly chart. It doesn't mean it's a give me and that you can just, you know, buy it and hold it forever and that it's going to work out. But this is a type of these are the types of stocks you want to be trading that look this good on a long term chart because you're more likely to, you know, have it continue.

41:48Like, you know, object in motion tends to stay in motion, so to speak. I just made that up, by the way. Well, well done. You're just a few hundred years late. So one of the things I think that is super important because it's so easy to look at an uptrend and say, oh, wow, I would have made so much money holding this. But you really do have to pay attention on a monthly chart to that relative strength line. Because, look, SPY, you know, SPY has a pretty decent uptrend. you know, if you look at this over time. So you really want to be doing that comparison on the relative strength, because if you're not beating SPY, and I'm just going to throw up Alphabet as an example, you know, look, you know, it's had this overall long-term uptrend, but, you know, gosh, for a long time, I mean, recently it's gotten a big boost, but for a long time, it was just kind of a market performer.

42:43So yeah, the fact that HowMet has that really strong relative strength really does set it apart in terms of that leadership. And everybody knows Google, but they don't know this stock, right? The general public wouldn't realize if you said, oh, is HWM a better performer than Google? Everyone would say Google if you hadn't just looked at the chart. And so I like that too, because it's more of an institutional quality type of thing. You don't hear people talking about it or see it on Twitter or X, and it's just a sleeper that grows. I'm also going to mention that KTOS, this is in the drone space.

43:22This has been one that we've been keeping an eye on. I had this one and I lost my position with a silly cell, but this was the New America, I believe, this week. So that's something to take a look at just to kind of see what the drone space looks like with KTOS and AVAV as just a couple examples there. Okay, Mike, you ready to share your charts? We'll see. Okay, cross your fingers. But yeah, so we usually start with the really simple look, just kind of taking a look at the candles and how those finished up on the weekly chart. So take it away. Okay, and you can see this? Yes. Okay, let me just, all right.

44:04So this is our, Bob, we are taking a step back, looking at the weekly, kind of looking at the bigger picture and seeing, is there anything jumping out at you that's giving you a warning sign? And there's not. On a weekly chart, you just have what I call a sliver of a candle or the body of it where the high or the open and the close are almost identical. And you did trade higher than last week's high, but it's just kind of one of those candles that your assumption is sideways the next. It doesn't give you a clear expectation that you're going down nor up. And so it's kind of a mixed. It's mixed.

44:47It is not bad and it's not good. And let's look at the composite. And this one, you know, so it's got a bigger body, but a negative body, meaning that you closed lower than you opened. But it still looks good because your bottom part, your bottom wick is longer than your top wick. That means it traveled down lower than the lower space than the upper space. And that's a look, that's a positive candle. But again, the expectation on here isn't for it to go down, isn't for it to go up. It's just a little mixed bag. And I didn't look at the IWM on a weekly, but let's go ahead and look at it. But so this is more really not a great candle because you've got a wider wick or a bigger wick on the top than you do on the bottom.

45:41That's negative. Plus, you've got a negative body, meaning that you close lower than where you opened. So that's negative. But from a going sideways standpoint, when your body is inside the body of the last week, the last candle, that's just kind of becomes a non-event. It's kind of you just marking time. And that's OK to mark time. So we're not getting any. The reason why we go through this procedure every week through all of these charts is to put the mosaic together. You're taking little bits and pieces and then you step back and see what it tells you. So let's go over to this. This is going to be kind of fascinating.

46:22Probably the most important part of today is the regressions. And I don't, let me see, our first regression there, kind of hard for me to see on here, was May 12th. And then what was it, the 23rd or something? Yeah, July 23rd. July 23rd. Okay, so that's - 50 days later. Okay, thank you for that. So this, we've locked this in at this point and this point. And what is good about it is that it was staying above its green line for the most part, with one standard deviation underneath what I'd like to call home base or where it wants to go if it's healthy, which is this white line or it's regression line, line of best fit, whatever you want to call it, that it should travel back up to there.

47:08just like it did over here where it came in and then bounced up. And they tend to, my observation of it is they mean revert and they go, when it's in a channel like this, they mean revert and go a little bit to the upside around to the red dash line. That's my textbook of it. What I didn't like about this is it was hugging the green dash line, which is 0.75 standard deviation, rather than moving up to the white line. So this is negative over the last month. That's my takeaway on this lens of looking at it through the regression. Now, what would be good is if we can make it— And again, the expectation, if it was strong, is that it would be just a little bit higher, a little bit closer to the white line, right?

47:58Well, it should have actually gone up to the white line, At least not up to the white line, if not overshot the white line, because it's very rare for to just go up to the white line and stop and just hug the white line. It, you know, overshoots it. And so this is just, I guess, another way to say it's just kind of a weak rebound and just a change of the slope of what you're going, were going at initially. But on the positive side is it's not broken. We haven't broken this yet, and that's because we did spend one day underneath it and then came right back up to the line. So how do I interpret this from a positive standpoint?

48:42If we can make it through this green dash line on here, which would be on SPY, that's, you know, around 6.6, 8.5, give or take. If it gets up to that, then that's where I will be gunning it. And that's kind of near the highs. We're actually a little bit higher than that. And then that kind of goes along with what we were talking about with breaking the precedent. But the fact that it was only really one bar underneath it, that's okay. You can do one, two, sometimes even three days underneath that line. But once you start getting more than that, just like a precedent, when a precedent breaks, you've got to throw it out.

49:23You've got to throw out the regression. Let's look at the composite. and this one's a little bit stronger because you didn't get the whole candle underneath that it just traded down to the white line so this is telling you that NASDAQ is stronger than SPY from this lens but and it also got closer up to your white line over here so that's where your strength was so again if this can get back over here that's where we would be gunning it expecting it to move up if you're just looking at this in isolation. Now let's look at the IWM, which again, I do have a position in and we have it on Swing Trader.

50:05Shoot, I forgot to move those out. Didn't get a chance to. Well, that really changes everything, frankly. And this is part of my computer problem. So where do you where did you start this? Because we don't have 50 days yet on IWM. So you're treating this one a little bit differently. August 1st. How many days is that? So I think that's 39. Let me just check real quick. 40. Okay. So we still have two more weeks that we will continue doing this. So when I was looking at this earlier, it was where we had stopped at the last time. We were underneath it and we're coming back up through it. So this is actually still positive.

50:48They came just down to your 0.75 and bounce up off of that. So your expectation is for it to go back to home base or this white line and actually overshoot it and come back in here. That's your expectation based on this chart. And you can just see if I move this back to where it was last week. Oops.

51:13How it would have looked where it was going. This is your textbook really done it at that point, but it's different. So let's see. We'll go to our next ones. Okay. So this is our 50 % retracement that we like to do every week. And you can do this on an interday basis all the way up to a monthly basis. And the thought process is when you find, and it's an art, when you find an area where there's a clear high and low, as we have for this week. So this week's high and low. Are you closing and living in the northern hemisphere, which is positive, or the southern hemisphere, which is negative? And this one just closed a little bit above the midpoint.

51:59So that is good. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. And that one just a little bit underneath it, but at least it was close to it. So I would say that that's, and the fact that it has a positive candle, meaning that closed higher than where it opened, being objective on this, that that is fine where it's there. You want it to move up above that and stay above the little gold line. And let's take a look. Ty goes the runner on this one. Yeah. And then now the IWM, this came down, it is in the lower hemisphere, but look at that candle, that body, how much bigger it is. wider than the other ones, showing you that there was power there.

52:42So when they come down, they have to take some time to get up. So even though it's down in this area, it's okay. If we had a pink bar, a pink candle in this area, I would look at that as weak action. But your expectation is for on Monday for it to go up through there. And if it doesn't do that, then then it's problematic. But right now I'd still say, even through this lens, that's positive. Now our next one, this is our levels page. And I've tried to make this a little bit more basic. So our first line in the sand is 654.30, which is a low from yesterday because it got some nice support there.

53:21We want to stay above that. If we could have closed below that, we'd be getting more defensive. And then there's other ones in here, but I just kind of cleaned it up and I'm using the, um, my parents' anniversary, September 2nd as, um, that low and that's 634.92. And, but there's other ones in here. You could have used the high from the 28th or you could use the high from the 13th of August. So when you go through this and you do it yourself, you can have one that's kind of a dirty chart with a bunch of lines on there. And then one that's cleaner that only has a few like this one. And I do like color coding that the yellow things, it's not a deal breaker.

54:00We'd still be in a bull market and all that if you go through those levels. But once you get into the red area, then you're dealing with a more, you know, an intermediate correction, not necessarily a bear market, but just something more severe. And for that, I'm using the low of the first. And if we go below that, we will talk about that at the time. And certainly one of the things that's nice about, you know, these lines right now or the pullback that we've had so far is you've got this support level, you know, at the 21 day, an upside reversal. So there's definitely if you if you do start, you know, sticking your neck out again, it's you've got a you've got a very clear area to know when to back away.

54:42Exactly. And such a good point, Justin, because this yellow line here that coincides with the top from this day, from the 10th, and coincides with the bottom of this upside reversal on the 17th, this upside reversal on the 25th, and the 21 day. So the more areas or more things, whether it's moving averages or highs or lows or key days, that you can find support or resistance, the more meaningful it is, at least in the way I like to look at things. Let's take a look at the composite. Same basic thing here, kind of made this a little bit easier to read. So we've got the low from yesterday is one thing, the 22185.

55:27Then this one, you know, went back and forth lots of places that you could do it. You could use the low from the 17th. In this case, I was using the high from the 13th. And then the red lines start coming in with the low of the 20th, which is the 20 ,905. Or really, this one is quite important, the 20 ,560. That's that low that it got support on here on August 1st. So if we go below that, that's a different type of market environment. I don't think I got a chance to market by WM. Oh, yes, I did. So we have yesterday's low there. Then we have the low from the 22nd of August. Those are your two important ones.

56:16And, of course, the low from the 20th is important as well. But if we get all the way down there, then this IWM thing will have failed and we'll just throw it out. The next chart that we're going over, this is relatively new. This is something that I always look at, but I don't always share it or just started sharing it. And I just have a bunch of moving averages on here. I like looking at just the Fibonacci numbers for my moving averages. So like a 3, a 5, an 8, a 13, a 21, 34, 55, and so on, all the way into whatever the number was in the 200s. I always forget that one. Can't memorize everything.

56:58But 233. So you can pick different levels. You can do a 5, a 10-day, a 20-day, a 30-day. You know, pick whatever works for you. This one, they break out nicely. If you understand the Fibonacci stuff, you understand why. And you're the strongest when they're all above each other. Now you're starting to get them, the shorter ones coming in, but they're still above it. You just have this little blip that's coming in. And always just pay attention to that. It's not something you want to look at all the time, all day long, just maybe at the end of the day or once a week to just get a sense for, is there anything really different happening besides just normal wiggles and wobbles?

57:44And the same thing here on SPY. Let's take a look at the IWM. That one, frankly, looks a little bit worse because your shorter term ones came down a bit more. So if you wanted to take this to the next level, you'd really be counting, you know, how many of them are above each other and so on. You can build a whole indicator around that. Maybe I've built one. Maybe I haven't. We'll see. Maybe I'll release it at some point. All right. So next we've got just making a very, very simple, and we'll start off with spies, get rid of all the noise. Just look at your 21 day. For most people, this is probably what you want to do and not bother with all the other nonsense I was just looking at that I like to look at.

58:25And you can just keep it as simple as this. That blue line is your 21 day exponential. Is it above it or not? Is your low above it or not? Or is your high underneath it? Well, our low is above it, and we got nice support at that yesterday. So this is, as we talked about before, very textbook. And the candle, being a blue candle on a Friday, is really positive, and with your low being back above your 21-day. So it's really a mixed bag. Same thing here on the NASDAQ. And let's look at the IWM. And someone just would have wanted a little bit more oomph this week. But again, we're looking at this as the money flowing into this space.

59:07Let me stop with these charts and move over to my other charts. Just take me a second here. Not as fast as you are. Let's see. There it is. Okay, can you see my WebEI RSI? Yes. Okay. So here we've got the little histogram down at the bottom. This is just measuring your low versus your 21-day exponential in terms of ATRs, average true range. And it's this little teal color down here. And it's this tiny little baby number, but at least it's positive. So it's at like 0.3. And we just want that to build from there. What was interesting is this week, is it worse on the NASDAQ? or the, okay, here's the NASDAQ.

1:00:01This had poked up to, on, what day was that? On Monday to its highest level that it's been at for a while. And that's something you want to see early in a move, like early over here off the bottom, you want to see that power. But once you've been trending for a while, which we have been, you don't want to see those spikes up. No, it wasn't a material spike. But it was a warning sign that things were getting a little bit hot and you should come in. And it did. And let's take a look at the IWM. And the same basic thing there as far as just having this tiny little WebEI RSI over here. But being objective about this, it never got the power that you would have wanted it to have.

1:00:50And that is, even though I'm in the IWM and I like the IWM, I am bothered that we never had a big Webby RSI at the beginning of this turn. You would think an instrument that has been dead for three, four or more years now, that when it finally started going, that you would have so much short covering in there that you would get a lot of power and a lot of thrust. But the jury's still out on that. But it is a negative against it. You just got to be, you always have to be objective about things. So we'll wrap this up with my daughter's favorite indicator, the Bob Marley. Well, I think she only watched this once.

1:01:32And so she said, I like your. That was the prettiest one. She's like, no, dad, I like your Bob Marley one. So this is just measuring another way of looking at the market of how healthy is it relative to how it's traded. So your high or how much you're off your highs in terms of ATRs. So we're in our green zone, which I've just labeled four ATRs or less is green. Four to eight is yellow. And then below that's red. So one thing you do is you just look and see, okay, where are you? Are you in the green zone or yellow or red? And that tells you something. But then it's the pullbacks. Are they normal and natural?

1:02:14This is the best way I know to look at what's normal and natural is are they coming down to the same level, which this did. It came down on August 20th to about two and a half, give or take, ATRs off the high. Same thing here on 2nd of September. And then the same thing this week. When you start seeing that deviate and you start going lower, that's when the character is changing and you've got to look out. Now, if we start having pullbacks that are higher, then that's a sign that it's even getting stronger. And so you want to get more bullish. Let's look at the NASDAQ. So this one pulled back is actually nicer than the other ones because this one was coming in almost to four on the 1st of August.

1:03:03Again, almost to four on the 20th of August. Then a little bit better, September 2nd pullback. You can see it moved up a little bit more. And let me just blow this up a little bit so you can see it better. These are the pullbacks I'm looking at. So the fact that this pullback in here is higher than these, that's very constructive. Now let's... And are these to the lows or is this the close? The lows. Okay. The lows, yeah. And then let's look at SPY. And going backwards to the SPY, you can see this was your overblown one. and these are about the same and we will wrap up with IWM. And this is just in a completely different position because it's just moving up.

1:03:47But I'm going to cough and I'm going to let you talk. Okay, well, go ahead and stop your share if you don't mind, because again, it's a good place to end there. And we will just real quickly do our precedent analysis. And I don't know if we lost him completely there. That must have been one heck of a cough to knock you out. It was bad. So before we do the precedent, I just want to, again, people should get this picture of what the NASDAQ currently looks like. The main point here is that we were in this power trend with a very long time above the 21-day moving average line, trending above that 21 moving average line until August 1st, which again, that's where you showed how we got to those lowest levels in the ATR when we came in on August and did it again here, did it again here.

1:04:42Now let's go to our precedent. We're going to go to 1980. And this time we're going to we're going to jump ahead. So, again, keep this in your head where we've come in here lately and we're going to show what 1980 looked like. And, you know, we had that, you know, sharp pullback below the 21 day moving average line kind of corresponding to August 1st. a little bit of doodling around there, although we were a little bit stronger in that we didn't even come down to the 50-day moving average line in the current market. But here we are, two days down in the case of 1980, down to the 21-day moving average line, and then you move up.

1:05:22And what do you think? How close are we? Very close. I mean, this is, I've done a ton of precedent analysis going back, you know, quarter of a century, you know, is when I started doing it. And there's very few times where something works out as well as it did. That's what's bothering me so much because I've started using this when it started looking at it when we broke the 21 day at the 185.68. And that's when I started using this one and some other ones, but then it was clear that this was the one to go with. And it's all the wiggles and wobbles has been as close as any precedent that I've ever used, which was good and allowed us to gun it at times with Swing Trader in our own accounts.

1:06:08But you can't take something and only take the good and not take the bad. And that's what's, you know, I want to just throw it out and just say, oh, precedents, blah, blah, blah. It's different. You know, you know, there's so many things in the economy and the market and everything that were different at the time. And I'm not looking at this and saying what interest rates were or anything that was going on in D.C. I'm just looking at the chart. And I think people should study this if they haven't. So what this tells you, if it plays out, you got another up day, then you break the 21 day and then break the 50.

1:06:45So if that doesn't happen next week, then I'm going to, you know, be ready to throw this out since it doesn't have to match. I should mention you were ready to almost throw it out early, you know, because, again, we weren't coming in initially as you would have expected. We were we were getting a little bit of extra extra oomph, you know, here. But again, we have. Yeah, it's very close to throwing it away. And it was more that it wasn't doing as much different. It was that I really wanted to throw it away just because I didn't want to see what happened next. But it is what it is, man. Like if you go back and, well, we've already been going over an hour, so I won't get into the 2000, 2003, like 1929 to 1932.

1:07:34But we'll save that for another day. So let's go out to the next date.

1:07:41So the big takeaway here is because I really would find it hard to believe that it would mirror all of this and all the wiggles and wobbles are going to be the same. I'm not going, if we break the 50, I'm going to just say, okay, now the character has changed. I'm going to stop using the precedent at that point and just say, okay, it served its purpose. It got us to be defensive when we needed to be defensive. And then we'll move on from there. So either way, I'm going to be throwing this out over the next week or two, regardless, because it's not something that should just, you know, duplicate all those.

1:08:17At least that doesn't make sense to me, but at least we've had this extended move up and you have so many people. And I see this on Twitter, you know, which is a good way of getting a sense for the mass psychology out there. So many people so bullish, so many people that got away from withholding during the bear market and are up like so much and they just think they're God. You traded in the 90s like I did, and you remember how that plays out, all the buy the dippers, just buy the dip, buy the dip. And make no mistake, my ego was bigger than anything. I just started and I thought, oh, well, this is easy.

1:08:59I thought I was that good. So until 2001, 2002. Yeah, well, that's a big topic. So anyways, what happens is you need to clean house to have at some point the people that go in and buy the dip, buy the dip for that to not work. But we'll see. And we can go back to the current market. Everyone just go and do a change date. trace it out and look from the bottom, you know, all the way up. And just if you don't see what I'm seeing, if you look at it enough, you will. But we'll know one way or another come next week, come Monday. But throwing that out, the market looks like it's doing what it should do.

1:09:49So there's precedent. Webby is like really negative. Just looking at what the market is, the indices are doing. Very bullish, looking at what the individual stocks did this week, and that's a mixed bag and that's a warning sign. So my takeaway is the same thing I said at the beginning. Just be careful right now. Go with your A quality stocks, not the time to go with junk heat. There's a time and a place for that. This is not the time. Just be careful out there and make sure that you go through any of your holdings and know that if we do break badly, what you are going to do. Don't try to decide then.

1:10:28Decide now and just say, OK, if this stock comes into here, I'm going to sell 20 percent of it. If it goes lower than that, I'm going to sell another 20 percent. You don't have to do all or nothing decisions. These are gradually out, gradually back in. And, you know, as you mentioned, some of those candles that we saw are showing a little bit of indecision right now where we could go either way. So that's why it's going to be important to kind of wait and see, hey, let's let the market tell us what direction it wants to go. Does it want to lift up, continue to lift up from this bounce? Or is it a short term move that ends up to some, you know, medium term trouble?

1:11:07So we'll be again, hopefully we'll be walking you through all of that as we do on the Stock Market Today video. So tune in next week for Webby or any of the days. And we'll be kind of walking you through what's going on with the market. So thank you very much, Mike. Enjoy your talking in San Francisco. Enjoy the California weather. Oh, and then next week, don't we want to talk about it? Oh, next week we've got the Founders Club. Yeah, a number of people were actually talking about in the YouTube comments. And I have a really good time watching those YouTube comments. I wish I could do that. The community there is very fun.

1:11:43Well, you just have to mute the mute the thing. So, but yeah, you can you can you can if anyone is interested, we do have a founders club. You can go to investors dot com for information on that where we have a gathering where it's a great group of people. some of the high level people of Investors Business Daily on our employee side, but also on our audience side, people that have been with us for a very long time. So that's going to be a real special time. Mark Minervini is going to be not there, but he's going to be doing a presentation remotely. Scott St. Clair, Chris Gessel, Charles Harris.

1:12:22Yeah, I'll be there. Charles is going, right? Yeah, so Charles and I are going to do a, and I'm really excited about this. For the first time in, I can't even remember how long, the two of us are going to be on stage together. At the end, we're going to do a segment on, you know, what we've learned over the decades. And we've both been trading for three decades now because we're old. and we're going to be doing something we never talked about. Arusha, Mr. Smiles is going to be moderating that and very excited about that. If you can make it out, it's at the Venetian, one of my favorite places to stay.

1:13:02If it's in your budget, come out. I think it's going to be a ton of fun. It's very reminiscent of what we used to do with Bill O 'Neill in Santa Monica once a year. The master's program in Santa Monica. Oh, so much fun. Those were a two-day event. This is a one-day event. But the best part is really, you know, kind of the afterwards, the cocktail hour, you'll find me with a glass of water, but it's a cocktail. Interacting. And we just get to hang and there's so many nice people. And so if it's in your budget, check it out. And, you know, I'm really looking forward to it. And I think we're going to be, aren't the four of us going to be on stage like me, you and.

1:13:41Yeah, maybe a panel or something like that. Yeah, a panel. That'll be a lot of fun. Yeah. Yeah. Well, again, great having you on the show, Webby. We will see you in person next week. Looking forward to it. That's going to wrap it up for us this week. Thank you so much for watching. And don't forget, we also have the IBD Live show to keep you abreast of what's happening. We go live during market hours, 10 minutes before the market opens. We give you news, what you need to know for each day, and we walk you through the first hour, hour and a half of trading. So if you haven't joined us for that, do check us out at www.investors.com slash IBD live.

1:14:16And we hope to see you right back here on Monday on the Stock Market Day video. Thanks and have a great weekend, everybody. We'll see you.

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