Market Extends Bounce; GE Vernova, Marvell Technology, SpaceX In Focus

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0:25Ed Carson:good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today for tuesday june 30th the last day of the first half of 2026 and what a day it was seeing a lot of strength out there and joining me now to break down all the action is my colleague ed carson ed what do you have for us today i want to take a look at a few stocks GE, Vinova, Marvell Technology, and SpaceX. Okay, we will check those out. But we also want to take a look at the major indexes because that, of course, guides our trading decisions quite heavily. Here's a look at the Nasdaq Composite, up 1.5 % on the day. It was the strongest index by far.

1:07Ed Carson:It was slightly outpaced by the Nasdaq 100. I just want to note With that up 1.7%. Meanwhile, the S &P 500 up about 0.8 % on the day. Nice bounces all around there. The Dow up about a quarter of a percent, but still up at highs. And then the Russell 2000, tracked by the IWM ETF, up 0.5 % here. So a closing high there as well. Ed, seeing a broad-based rally. Your thoughts on the action? What a difference a couple of days makes here. Yeah, that's why you have to take things day by day. You look at the trends and you say, okay, this and that, but you also have to be ready to switch back and forth.

1:52A couple of days ago, things were looking, you know, a couple of sessions ago, things were looking a little bleak. And it wouldn't take much to get that back down. But the NASDAQ was the weakest index. I mean, it still is the furthest away from highs. But here it is, gotten back to the 50-day line, back above the 21-day line. A lot of strength in AI, as you say. The queues look stronger. A lot of other indexes look stronger. So there's breadth. This was very much a tech-led day. A lot of other sectors sat out, but a lot of other sectors still look good. And so, yeah, there's a lot of breadth. It'd be a great situation.

2:26I mean, I don't think it's pretty much perfect if you have AI and tech leading, but with lots of other sectors participating is really, I mean, sort of ideal from a growth investor's perspective. So, you know, maybe we'll look back and say now we've had our first real pullback, our first real correction because, OK, we had little pauses, you know, in April and even May. But those were just really blips, you know, just barely can see them. But here you can see this one. And so there's a lot of bases, a lot of handles that are forming. So, again, if we move on, we'll all look back and say, thank goodness for June.

3:05It was wonderful because it set things up. It wasn't so we'll forget about all the volatility in, you know, in the meantime. So we'll see. You know, we'll see. It could always reverse lower and all that. And you can do that again. We're not out of the wedge. We did this a couple of weeks ago, but it looks very strong right now.

3:21Ed Carson:Yeah. But I guess the difference now is we have put in more time. Right. So that's one thing that we see from a lot of periods in the past where you get these bad breaks is it does take a little bit of time. And again, it's also not to say that we're going to have a repeat of April, May. That would be nice, right? We could, but we've looked at the 1990, late 90s period and seeing the uptrend with a lot of pullbacks along the way. We've also said that that's a scenario that we could see. So with that, whatever scenario we do get, if this uptrend does continue, whatever flavor it presents itself, taking advantage of these pullbacks, actively trading around the portfolio, but then knowing when to press the gas when you do have that strong uptrend.

4:13Ed Carson:And that's not to say to go all in and, you know, close your eyes and hold your breath. But it does give you a great level to trade off of. So whether that was with something like the QQQ, I'm trading the TQQQ, or you do have the S &P 500, that coming down to the 50-day line and bouncing notably there. I know the team was talking about YouPro on IBT Live this morning. So we have a level to watch if we do roll over. And for now, we know how powerful buying opportunities off of the 50-day or the 10-week can be in a strong uptrend. So this could be that moment, Ed, but only time will tell. Yeah, and I would just say is that for people who pull back a little bit, and maybe for individual stocks, some individual stocks have really big drops.

5:05I mean, at least on a percentage basis. So that's something you needed to sell, especially newer buys. And some you just said, well, I'm going to cut back. But this is where you can go the other way. It's sort of like when you go and, you know, you might be going on the freeway, maybe going a little fast and then you go on a tighter turn. Well, you slow down a little bit. Doesn't mean that's it. I'm not going up speeding again. It's just this was a better signal. So you sometimes it can give you the confidence, you know, give you the, you know, the, you know, the make sure you don't back away and not refuse to buy because I'll never buy again.

5:36And no, you can sell a little bit and either buy that stock back or something that's actually performing better. So just a little management. Again, these are incremental. This is just like tapping on the brakes a little bit and pushing on a little bit. It's not like going to a full stop and then trying to accelerate to zero to 60 as fast as you can. So, yeah, incremental moves here. But definitely the last couple of days have offered opportunities, whether it's through individual stocks or sector or broad ETFs, a lot of ways to play this bounce.

6:05Ed Carson:Exactly. Couldn't agree with you more, Ed. So again, here's a look at the S &P coming down right to the 50-day. We're back above the 21-day. Two closes above that level for this index and the NASDAQ joining it with a close above the 21-day line today. We'll have to see if we can get a little bit more power and the 21-day could stay above the 50-day. We don't know if we will get that crossover. That will mark, if that does happen, the technical end to the power trend. But it doesn't mean we can't continue to climb higher. We do have a trend line here. It looks like we're coming up against that, Ed.

6:43Ed Carson:And then also those highs from earlier in June, I think, will be important to tackle. But we do have blue chips and small caps in that high territory already. Yeah, these are basically at highs or closing highs. So, again, they didn't outperform today, but they've been doing quite well. So there's various sectors. Again, there's a lot of breadth of this rally. So, you know, June was pretty good for this. You know, you look at the Dow and the Russells, like, oh, yeah, there were some down days, but nothing really that negative. I mean, ultimately, like these were much more temporary things, not the violent, bigger drops, testing the 21-day line, not going all the way to the 50-day line and below.

7:25So, you know, there was a lot of this is an argument for some diversification. There were some industrials. I mean, all those are AI, but industrials that looked very strong today. But again, that's a lot of its AI. But XBI, that was down today. But honestly, who's going to be upset about that? XLV, which is some of those large cap drug makers have been down today. But again, there's been a lot of strength in a lot of areas of transportation, I'd say, AYT. is, you know, that one, again, down today, but there's been some strength, which is a positive about the economy just in general. I mean, still things like SMH or SOX, and I do own a position in SMH still just because that's been doing well enough, but a lot of strength there for sure.

8:12But again, it's sometimes easier to hold on to your wild stuff if you have some calmer stuff. If it's all just crazy 10 % ATR stuff, it's really hard to hold that because your portfolio can literally have 8%, 15 % down days when you're pretty heavily invested. And the stocks may all look okay, but you've seen your portfolio take a massive hit. So that can make it hard. It can force you, can shake you out of things that you wouldn't necessarily be shaken out on an individual stock basis. So, you know, looking for the diversity of leadership, I think. And there's some real winners out there. It's not talking about some boring stocks.

8:51There's been some stocks that have performed very well that aren't in AI. And I think that investors can and should be looking for those as well.

8:58Ed Carson:Well said. And to your point about managing the drawdowns, yeah, I mean, that's a reality. And thinking about that dimmer switch or the gas pedal, like you were saying, ed, I think is, is helpful, you know, just trimming, trimming just a little bit, you know, if you're, if you're trying to manage those drawdowns, but also looking at the moving averages, right? We know that that's so helpful for keeping, keeping our eyes on the prize. But even with that, you can have, you can have a stock like Sandisk that I own that is holding a key moving average, like the 21 day. And I did opt to trim just a fifth.

9:41Ed Carson:I couldn't bear to do a quarter or a third ed, but I did trim a fifth of my position into strength. Baby steps, right? Yeah. I mean, it's hard. And you never know where that is because this can draw down 40%, you know, over four weeks or so. I mean, it could easily do that. This is up over, I think, 800 % this year. I mean, it's just an even among for AI stocks. This is incredible. So, but that means you could also see big losses. But yeah, it's hard to be upset. Especially as the position grows, you know, so. Yeah. And that's another reason. You have to manage that. Because yeah, because then if it becomes what may have been a small position, it can become just an enormous position when you have one of these things.

10:22So definitely something to consider.

10:24Ed Carson:So, I mean, hey, that's what we're all about here is that active trader mindset. looking at the buy and sell signals on an individual stock basis and the market level and seeing where those sector rotations are flowing. So we're having a lot of fun even in a volatile month. And here's a look at XMAG. So this just also underscores that divergence that we're seeing, seeing that play out a bit of a sideways move and moving into new highs here. So seeing that broad strength to your point, I guess we could also take a look at MAGS. That is moving off lows now. That has been quite a drag on the NASDAQ composite this month, though.

11:08And oddly enough, those two things aren't unrelated. Today's positive action in XMAGS may be related in part because of MAGS. Because part of the concern is that the MAG-7 are just straining at least the hyperscalers under AI spending. So if you feel like, no, no, it's not that bad, then that means that all those others, you know, all those chip names, all those other names, you know, maybe all those hardware names can keep on rallying because, you know, it just falls off. There was a limit. I think that's one reason we had all this volatility. On the one hand, you had Micron announcing a massive earnings.

11:40On the other hand, you have Apple going, man, we have to raise prices a lot. Yeah. And that's Apple. And it's just so, you know, you want to see the mags, especially those hyperscalers, doing reasonably well. I mean, maybe leading is not what you expect out of those names, but you don't want them falling apart because that is probably not a good sign over the long term for AI spending. But we won't find out about AI spending for another month. But that's always fun for that earning season on that now. Yeah, it is.

12:09Ed Carson:It is. Okay, great points there, Ed. And I think that concludes our sector look.

12:40Ed Carson:Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM. Let's go over to GEV. This is an AI energy play. We did talk about, honestly, how tricky this one was in May because it did present some entries that failed. And it looks like this one just needed a little bit more time to set up, shake some folks out, including myself, round out the base here. We talked about the early entry, getting back above the 50-day line. I love that type of entry. I did not take advantage of that. But for those who missed it, or maybe if you did trade that, an opportunity to either initiate or add today on the strong move higher.

13:25Sort of a handle-esque type pattern here.

13:29Ed Carson:What do you think? Yeah, I think that's an actual handle. In my view, that's an actual handle because it's just not going to show up there. And it's messy. It's obviously not a gentle handle. There's some violent action in there. But after a big run up, it's not that surprising that it came back down. Yeah, there's a lot of things going on there. But I think especially you could have bought early a little bit today. You could have bought all the day. And this one is actually one. Some of the stocks we've seen, they run up so fast, you don't have a chance. And this ran up nicely, but you had a chance throughout the day.

14:01In fact, it's still actionable from that handle. the relative strength line which looks so terrible you know for a while relatively you know but it's come back and it's above the handle high it's not a new high but then the stock is so you'd like it to be even stronger but it's made a comeback it's so that that's important uh because and you didn't know i mean you know like when it was coming down there you had to say oh man this this may just fall apart or lag for a long time and you and uh you just have to recognize that this is why you try to get out around that 50-day line break, you could have gotten back in at a similar price or bought into something else.

14:40You know, the alternative, which was waiting, having to go all the way down and then come back up, really, and you didn't really say, you know, you just had all that, carried all that risk and you didn't get extra gain from it. So again, that's why sell rules are so important.

14:55Ed Carson:All right. Well, we've talked about the fundamentals for this company And so I think that's also why it was so disappointing to see it breaking the 50-day in the way that it did. You would expect a leader that's pumping out the kind of growth that this one is to respect that level. But it hasn't in the past, I suppose. So we'll see what the earnings report is like in a couple of weeks. But, hey, we've got three weeks for traders to build a profit cushion here, Ed, And man, the growth here sure has been stunning. Do you think these are just conservative estimates, Ed, or what's going on here? I'll be honest.

15:38I need to look. I need to ask one of my reporters to look in this for me because why, given their massive backlog, why would earnings drop off? I mean, I understand they would slow down, like maybe the growth rate. OK, fine. But I don't see why it would go down. But that's something notable. I'll also say on earnings, last few quarters, it's gapped up on earnings. And then it's base. So, you know, if you're more of a swing trader type and you happen to have a position, you know, if this gaps up on earnings next time, taking a little piece off may not be the worst thing to think about given its history.

16:12You know, and that so but something to note is that I certainly would be cautious about buying an earnings gap given its history over the last few quarters.

16:21Ed Carson:Yeah, that's a that is a good note there. All right. Well, we'll be watching this one, GEV, GE Vernova. Moving on, let's go to Marvell, also making a comeback in recent trading sessions. An upside reversal to kick off the week, following up on the gains today, up 7%, crossing the highs from the last week, getting close to that round number at 300. We know these round numbers, psychological levels that can be key areas that had a hard time staying above it previously. But if you zoom out on this one, Ed, you know, beyond the recent consolidation from, you know, the 320 highs, you know, a month or so ago to the 250 lows, this is a stock that ran up from 100 to 300 in a very, very rapid pace.

17:18Ed Carson:So definitely one of interest here as it sets up again. Yeah, it'd be great if it forged a whole new base, given that that's run. But you could make the same argument about Sandisk and a lot of other stocks out there. This is one of the very biggest performers of 2026. I think it's one of those that has tripled in, you know, this year. And you're right, in most of it in a very short period off the last couple of earnings reports. So it's, yeah, I think today they sort of broke a trend line, got above the short-term highs. It seems like if you were going to buy it in this area, I mean, you could also wait for a base.

17:52But I mean, I wouldn't be waiting for like 320 if it went straight up from here. It's already sort of like pushing it, I think, to be adding to it because of where it is versus the 21-day line. But I think you could buy it here. Great if it formed a new base. All those ants that it had, it really didn't form there and even bug there. And, you know, this stuff makes custom AI chips for Amazon. I think they might be doing it for some others. And that's where this triggered this fundamental change. Because when this broke out, the RF line really wasn't that great. I mean, it was like, this was sort of a laggard, you know, in that space.

18:25Not crazy or anything. I mean, it was getting there. But, I mean, especially given back where it was at the end of 2024. Short term, I mean, it was not a laggard, laggard. But it was not the most impressive thing because it had, you know, but boy.

18:36Ed Carson:Yeah, it was simply a character change, this last breakout. Wow. Huge, huge character change. But the earnings had already changed. The earnings line had already changed. So it was a message to say, like, well, wait a second. And just so to maybe to take note of that. And huge run there. It'd be great if it could take a couple more weeks, maybe form a base, a rough and ready base. I know there's sort of wild action in there that it could be in there. But, you know, really, really strong performance. And if you were really aggressive, you could have taken a position here. I'm watching this one closely because of the power, because of that relative strength, because of the character change there.

19:14Ed Carson:I did trade this one a little bit. I was late to the party. I didn't get the breakout. Also, on the daily, I mean, a very tricky breakout. And it's compressed now. But it was, if we backdated it. That was not great. That was a pretty big drop. Yeah, so let's see. Maybe we'll just go... while we're here. But yeah, I mean, look at, it was a clean breakout day of, but then to, so this was, this would have been a tricky one to hold, to hold the breakout. It was right when the market was moving. I mean, like the market was just about to turn, like that war, like the market basically right then. So I think that's what did it.

19:57So that's just unfortunate for those who bought it and sold it right there because there's such a massive move. I remember doing that in 1999 with Siebel Systems or something. And I sold it because it was early on. I hadn't done much investing. And I sold it when it dipped in, and then it turned around and went up 400 % over the next six months. So that was fun.

20:17Ed Carson:Happens to the best of us, Ed. But I think the other tell here, though, was we talked about what a momentum shift it was for the market that April 8th follow-through day. Look at where this stock was. You know, this wasn't getting it back above the 50 day or breaking out. This was extending its gain. So I mean, to see it in that position already leading. So that's really when the relative strength got into gear there. So I did trade this one for a nice profit, decided to close the position with the break of the 21 day. That was my rule. And I wasn't patient as much with this one as, you know, with the other tech exposure that I have.

21:00Ed Carson:But I am willing to try it again. Haven't yet. I'd love to see it tighten up a bit. So we'll see. Okay, let's go to SpaceX because a lot of traders have been very focused on this one, Ed. We covered it actually in, you know, recent episodes. And we've talked about aggressive early entries, not for the faint of heart, but for those who really want to get into IPO stocks when they are just turning. Seems like whether you were looking at the highs above 160 on Monday or today getting above the 8 EMA and some of the other recent highs, this is starting to turn. And I'd like to underscore aggressive entry here, your thoughts, Ed.

21:52Yeah, I completely agree with you. And I wanted to bring it up for all these reasons. And this is a place, if you were to do it, I would say start a position. And again, this isn't where I'd start. I don't like starting IPOs this low. I mean, if I really, really, really believed in it, maybe I could come in. But I would prefer to see this come up to, say, 185, 200, and then form some kind of a handle or something like it, some kind of positive. Because there was a lot of trading right in there. I mean, just sort of, and then try to get an entry. But IPOs, no matter where you buy them, whether you buy them at an aggressive entry, early entry, the option of a buy point, there's often whipsaw action.