Market Still Has, And Needs, Power. Cameco, Uber, Meta In Focus.

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0:25Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Monday, September 15th. It's Alexis Garcia here. And stocks moving higher today as signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks are coming. And of course, all eyes will be on the Fed this week with potential rate cuts coming. Those meetings start tomorrow with an expected decision on interest rates coming Wednesday. And here with me to help break down everything you need to know about today's market action is IBD Market Research Director Justin Nielsen. Justin, what's on tap for us today?

1:01Alexis Garcia:Well, I'm not sure you can overpromise everything you need to know about the stock market. We only have limited time after all. Everything you wanted to know, but we're too afraid to ask, right? Exactly. That's pretty much what we're going for. So, yeah, we'll talk about a few stocks. I think it's worth revisiting a GEV that we were talking about on Friday, Ed and I, because, man, power, we still need it. And so we'll talk in that regard also about Cameco, CCJ, Uber with a breakout. And then, look, the mega caps, they just seem unstoppable. So we'll go over meta as well. All right. Sounds like a great plan.

1:38But first, let's check in on the major indexes. Just do a quick lightning round here. The S &P 500 finishing the day up four tenths of a percent. The Dow up fractionally today. Tech leading the way with the NASDAQ up nine tenths of a percent. And small caps also gaining ground up three tenths of a percent. So, Justin, I'll get my screen share going. But talk to me about the current market and what you see setting up to start the week.

2:07Alexis Garcia:Well, I mean, the fact is we have a market that is just so strong right now and really impressive in how every time it comes down a little bit. I mean, we had on August 1st our first move below the 21-day moving average line and then a few tests where it came. But it didn't even come down to the 50-day moving average line. This market is just so strong and resilient. It just doesn't really want to come down that much. Now, it's worth mentioning, since you have the S &P 500 up, that the RSP, which is the Invesco equal weighted version of the S &P 500, looks a little different. You know, it does not have near the strength as the market cap weighted index does.

2:46Alexis Garcia:So, you know, there is still somewhat of a breadth issue, but it's really hard to tell because there are so many stocks that are doing very well. And now we still have that rotation play. As you mentioned, small caps were up three tenths of a percent. They are still looking interesting. They kind of come up, you know, have a little drift down, come up, have a little drift down. So it's a little bit harder and a little herky jerky. But they are still overall, I mean, in the last month at least, have been outperforming quite a bit. So that's still an area that we're watching for potential rotation.

3:20Alexis Garcia:But every time we keep on thinking, oh, there might be some rotation here, a lot of the old names are still holding up so strong and not giving that much ground. Yeah, a lot of the usual suspects in play. And let's just check in on the NASDAQ, Justin, while we're making the rounds here. Again, this one looking strong, up almost a percent today. Any thoughts here? Yeah, so at this point, it's one of those things where you start looking at, we have that pullback almost to the 50-day, almost touched it. Um, didn't quite come down there, but you had that reversal and that's really kind of one of those opportunities when you got back above the 21 day moving average line to kind of gas it a little bit.

3:59Alexis Garcia:Now, um, now we're extended short term from there. So it doesn't mean you have to take your canned goods and go into a bunker by any stretch. Um, but you know, you have to start looking and saying, okay, are there stocks that I should be taking some profits on? Um, because if you're taking some profits into strength, then in any inevitable short term pullback, you have some cash available to redeploy where it might be better served. All right. Well, let's just wrap this up with a quick look at the Dow, Justin. Again, this one looking not so strong as the NASDAQ, but holding ground here today. Any thoughts here with DJ Industrial Average?

4:40Alexis Garcia:I mean, the Dow Jones, it's such a mixed bag because as a price weighted index of only 30 stocks, it can certainly be very influenced. So at the end of the day, I don't pay that much attention to the Dow myself, but you look at this and it's trending nicely. Everything just seems to be trending nicely, holding above the 21-day moving average lines, holding above the 50-day moving average lines. The indexes are holding above their 10-day moving average lines. There just really isn't much reason for panic or concern. The only concern is, okay, at what point do we start getting up there too much, too fast?

5:19Alexis Garcia:And look, we have a Fed meeting. I think everyone is expecting that we're going to have that quarter point cut. But what's going to be more important is, is there kind of a change in the wording? Is there some clues that Fed Chairman Powell lets out during the press conference. That's, I think, what's going to be more important and what people are going to be having their eyes on as opposed to the action itself. And we looked at RSP, Justin, but let's just also take a look at QQEW. That's the NASDAQ 100 weighted ETF. This one up about four tenths of a percent today, but closing at the bottom of that trading range.

5:57But what is this saying to you about market breadth?

6:01Alexis Garcia:Yeah. So, I mean, look, it's not great that it closed at the bottom of its range, but still Well, four tenths isn't nothing. So I do like that it did participate much better than the RSP. And I think this also speaks to the fact that, you know, you have a lot of tech that is very, very much in the leadership position. You know, whether you look at some of the symbols like SMH, which is your Banex semiconductor ETF, or IGV, which is your software, a lot of these are holding up very well. They're acting very strong. And so tech certainly seems like the place to be. We talk about the small caps and other areas that we might see some rotation at.

6:40Alexis Garcia:But right now, tech is still holding the fort. And you talked about Fed interest rates. So let's take a look at the 10-year Treasury yield, shall we? It was at its lowest point in about five months. Again, down today, about seven-tenths of a percent. So again, what does this say to you as investors await this rate announcement? Yeah, I think it's hard to say. There are so many things that you can say about the 10-year Treasury yield in terms of correlations, the market, what it means. But at the end of the day, I'm going to look at the indexes themselves. I'm going to look at the stocks individually and make my decisions based on that.

7:21Alexis Garcia:Because I'll be honest with you, a lot of times there are, if you tell me ahead of time, oh, this is what the 10-year treasury yield is going to do, I will still mess up the trades. Because sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't in terms of those correlations. Just as one example, let's take a look at ITB, which is the home builders. That had a pretty healthy clobbering today. And you might say, well, gosh, 10-year treasury, aren't you expecting that the mortgage rates are going to come in? Isn't that going to be better for homebuilders? But, you know, Morgan Stanley came out with a note today saying, you know what, some of that mortgage rate decline might have already been priced in.

8:00Alexis Garcia:It might not come in that much more. And their projection was that there's going to be less benefit for the homebuilders and maybe more benefit for the rentals, the REITs in this case. So again, the 10-year treasury yield coming in didn't have the effect on the ITV, the home construction that you would have expected, while small caps did still get that boost because anytime you can reduce the borrowing costs for these smaller companies that do rely on debt, sometimes for their growth, that does help them. But, you know, it's a little bit murky in other places. So I think it remains to be seen.

8:36Alexis Garcia:And look, there's often that projection of what, you know, the market thinks is going to happen. And then there's what actually happens. Then there's the reaction and counter reaction that we also have to be aware of after the Fed. So I think there's still going to be a little bit of uncertainty here in terms of what the market does as a result of all of this. All right, Justin. Well, we covered ITB, but let's take a look at some more sector ETFs, starting with FNGS. That's the micro sectors FANG ETF tracking some of these mega cap stocks here. This one having a nice day up 1.4%, getting to that round 70 level here, Justin.

9:15So again, talk to me about what you're seeing with this chart and what it's telling you about the market. it.

9:21Alexis Garcia:Well, the mega caps are not dead. If you're in that trillion dollar club and, you know, at this point, I mean, what's a trillion dollars? We're talking about three trillion, four trillion. That's that's the new black here. But a lot of these stocks doing well and it's still a mixed bag. But when you've got Google that has just been roaring, you've got Tesla and I do have a position in Tesla that's been having a great time here lately. And then you've got your again, your tech stalwarts like, you know, your Broadcom, your NVIDIA, and the chip space, you know, all of these are just having, you know, and I do have a position in Broadcom.

9:56Alexis Garcia:So yeah, all of these mega caps are still having really nice moves. They aren't really giving up much. So I mean, the mega caps are certainly you cannot ignore these. And let's take a look at FFTY. That's the IBD50 ETF. And as we've been talking about, Justin, those growth names have been doing really well. Another update here up 1.2%. Yeah. So as much as we're talking about, oh, RSP is showing that there's not great breadth, there are still a lot of stocks out there that are doing well. It's not just the Magnificent 7. The FFTY, of course, is an index of the IBD 50. So that's 50 stocks. And there are a lot of winners.

10:37Alexis Garcia:You can find a lot of winners in a lot of different spaces. Sure, there's the AI plays, the AI adjacent plays, even your utilities and power plays. And we'll talk about some of those in a little bit. But you've got a lot of different areas that are participating and that is fueling growth, growth indexes like FFTY as well. So as much as RSP is a little bit concerning, there's plenty of ideas out there that are working. Well, talk about fueling growth. Let's take a look at NLR. That's the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF. This one is seeing a gain of about 6.8 % today, closing at the top of that trading range, Justin.

11:18So what was going on in this space today?

11:21Alexis Garcia:I'll be honest. I don't know. I just looked at the chart and I'm like, something's happening. So sometimes it's a shoot first, ask questions later. So we did put this on Swing Trader as a full position. You know, during the IBD Live show, we talked about CCJ. Actually, you know, we kind of ended the show. Scott St. Clair ended the show talking about CCJ, UUUU, that's four U's in that uranium space, LEU. So there's a lot of these areas that were just showing phenomenal strength today in that nuclear space. So again, you can go and say, okay, what was it that was driving this? But at the end of the day, you usually see it on the chart first, and that tells you, hey, something is happening here.

12:07Alexis Garcia:Let me look at these and see if there's a potential entry. Let's look at GLD. That is the Spider Gold Shares ETF, this one gaining about 1 % today as well. And gold has been doing well here too, Justin. So thoughts here? Yeah, it's amazing. Because, again, what we were talking about with the 10-year treasury, how, oh, if the 10-year treasury does this, you expect stocks to do this. Well, usually you don't expect gold to be doing so great when growth is doing well. But, hey, sometimes it happens. And you can either say that the market doesn't know what it's doing, or you can say, if you can't beat them, join them.

12:44Alexis Garcia:So that's kind of where I've been lately. We did put on a UGL position for Swing Trader. That's a leveraged position in GLD. And, you know, gold has had the more recent breakout from this long base. But if you look at the miners, GDX is a good ETF there. That's the VanEck gold miners. This has been running for a while and doesn't show any signs of slowing. Most finance teams are spending on the wrong things. Expense reports, spend policy PDFs that nobody reads, a close that stretches into weeks. That's maintenance, not momentum. It's time to get Brex AF, a Gentic finance that eliminates that work before it starts.

13:23Learn more at brex.com slash AF. All right. Well, let's check in on iBit, Justin. That's I-B-I-T. That's the Bitcoin ETF. This one down about 1.3%, but right at this 50-day moving average. So why is iBit on your radar?

13:41Alexis Garcia:Well, I think the crypto is still something that is looking interesting in chart land. And I have a position in both iBit and E-T-H-A, which is Ethereum. This is something that I plan on talking quite a bit about with Jim Ropel on the monthly market report today, since he is such a crypto bull and he really knows about this stuff. So I'm going to be grilling him a little bit on what's happening here, because, again, Friday was such a good looking day for both Ibit and Ethereum. And then you kind of have the the ugliness of today. So, you know, how do you approach this? That's something I'm definitely going to be talking with Jim about.

14:17Alexis Garcia:But I don't think that these charts are broken, which is why I still have my positions. and I didn't sell today. All right, Justin. Well, let's move on to some individual stocks, shall we? You mentioned Cameco, CCJ. This one having a nice day today, up 10.5%, finishing at the top of that range there, Justin. And look at that volume. Really nice move today. So thoughts here on Cameco? Yeah, I mean, it just had a phenomenal look to it. And again, we were talking about this at the end of the show. So this is just a reminder. You could look at this and say, well, gosh, isn't this extended now? And I think I would agree with you.

14:56Alexis Garcia:I mean, after something moves 10%, it would be very normal for this to come in a little bit. And if you buy it at the highs today, you could easily get shaken out in just any normal pullback here that might just be difficult to hold on to. But if we go to the intraday chart, you can just go right there to your five minute at the top there. You can see that you had a lot of chances, you know, at this. You know, it was kind of at the morning, you know, when it crossed 80, I think that was showing a line in the sand that had been an area of resistance. It really popped above there. It took another kind of little pause around 81 and then kept on going all the way up to 86, you know, by the close.

15:39Alexis Garcia:So I think that there were chances to get in here. And that means that you just have to be paying attention to some of these areas. This is where alerts come in, especially if you're working, you get busy. That's one of those things where alerts can just kind of direct your attention. Hey, there was a resistance area here that you wanted to be made aware of. And you never know when those resistance areas are going to get crossed and how strong the day might finish here. So rather than saying, oh, well, I'm going to wait until the end of the day and see what happens, sometimes these intraday moves are really worth watching because by the end of the day, they can get way extended.

16:15Alexis Garcia:So these early entries are something that shouldn't be ignored. And if we just real quickly go back to the daily chart and you can kind of see where that 80 level was such a clear area to kind of put a line in the sand and say, hey, can we get above that? It was the high right around the high of Friday. It was an area of resistance all the way back to July. It did pop up above there recently, above that 80, you know, to the 8302 level, but it couldn't hold it. And so a lot of times what I'll do is I'll say, OK, that's kind of an outlier that it couldn't hold. I'm going to go where most of that resistance is.

16:48Alexis Garcia:And I think 80 was a good place to put that. And again, you saw it on the intraday chart where you did have an opportunity to get into this early before this 10 percent move. So you could have been almost looking at like 6 % at least, you know, for the day just by buying it. And you wanted to revisit GE Vrnova here. I know you talked about it last week with Ed. But yeah, up today about half a percent. But this one looks like it's also maybe trying to hold steady after a big move on the 10th above the 50-day. Yeah. So that's one of the things you have to be aware of. A big move, big gap up that we had above the 50-day moving average line.

17:25Alexis Garcia:And sometimes you do get some consolidation. So with CCJ, something to be prepared for. Big move. You might consolidate a little bit. But the power here, the power for power is definitely there. GEV is in that power space. You also have VST, the look of that today. VRT, CEG, a whole host in the power area that were looking very strong. You know, and again, these are a lot of these kind of AI adjacent AI requires a lot of power. You know, you're using chips that use more energy, you know, seven times more energy. They heat up more. So that means you've got to have cooling systems. You know, just take a look at like something like MOD, which is in the HVAC area.

18:11Alexis Garcia:That's why these guys do well, the AC and heating products. So there's a whole host of things that fall under AI, kind of your picks and shovels, you know, like back with the gold rush. Doesn't matter who wins in the AI game. You know that they're all going to need power, the data centers, that infrastructure. And so it's a way to play the AI without directly being in the AI. All right. Well, let's move on to Uber. Justin, the rideshare company, up 3 % today, peaking above this cup with handle buy point of 97.54. Yeah, it's just a pretty looking cup with handles. So a lot of people might be looking and saying, well, gosh, you know, isn't it better to be buying on pullbacks and everything like that?

18:53Alexis Garcia:But look, it's still worth kind of keeping an eye on the breakouts and whether or not these do work. So you had a really nice breakout. And look, I will say that Uber did probably offer an earlier entry a week ago. If you look at the Monday move as it kind of crossed that downtrend, got back above its 50 day moving average line. So one of the things you can do with some of these companies, if you really want to kind of get a little bit more advanced, you buy as it crosses one of these downtrends or on the upside reversal. And then you can add as it crosses above the traditional high of the handle.

19:33Alexis Garcia:And so that gives you a foothold early on. It lets you reduce your loss, you know, because if it turns very quickly and kind of undercuts your area below 90, you could have cut your loss pretty quickly as opposed to buying it all the way up at 97 and then waiting for it to come all the way down to 90. That's going to be a much bigger loss. But, you know, getting that early entry is something that is very, very good for your portfolio overall, reducing your risk overall. So, yeah, knowing those advanced buying strategies is useful. and we just so happen to have a webinar that we are doing on Saturday.

20:09Alexis Garcia:So if people would like to check that out, it's going to be myself, Scott St. Clair, and arguably the pullback king, Charles Harris, one of the William O 'Neill portfolio managers, who is very, very good at buying things on pullbacks. So he's going to cover his strategies as well. All right. Great timing for that. And look for the information there at investors.com. And let's just round this out, Justin, by taking a look at meta platforms. This went up 1.2 % today, getting above this 21-day line in a solid fashion here. So thoughts here on the chart. So you've got a couple of things going on. Okay, there is that AI exposure.

20:47Alexis Garcia:There is that mega cap quality. It's in that FNGS, the FAANG+. You also have the early entry. So again, rather than waiting for this to get all the way back up to 796.25 or 800, you've got kind of this downtrend that you can draw off the tops and get yourself an early entry here. So you've got this little area of resistance. You had an upside reversal, a small one on Friday, a nice follow-up to that today. So this is a place where, again, it offers you an early entry. This is something we did put on Swing Trader this morning. And so now we'll just have to see how it plays out. But even if it doesn't work, because you've got to remember, you're going to be wrong a lot.

21:29Alexis Garcia:Even the best setups, you're going to have a lot that don't work. But you can really kind of cut your loss fairly quickly. It's going to look pretty obvious if this starts coming in and undercuts Friday's low that, okay, this isn't working. If this comes back below the 50-day moving average line, okay, this entry isn't working. But, you know, again, rather than buying up at 800 and waiting for that signal that it's not working, you can be cutting your loss much, much earlier. All right, Justin. Well, thank you so much for your analysis today. And you're such a busy bee hosting. I know you mentioned you have a conversation with Jim Ropel coming up today.

22:04But what else do you have coming up this week?

22:07Alexis Garcia:Oh, man, it's going to be a busy week. So, yeah, Jim Ropel, that's going to be live at 5 p.m. We also on the podcast this week, it's going to be Bill Bengen. You might not know the name, but you probably know his rule, the 4 % retirement rule, which he has recently had a book come out that is updating that to kind of the 5 % rule. So we'll talk about how you use that for retirement on Thursday. Mike Webster and I are going to be doing a swing trader webinar to talk about swing trading strategies and what kind of things we do on the product. Then, of course, we've got the Friday SMT. Webby and I are going to be doing at that, looking at his Webby RSI, regression channel lines, really big overview of the market.