Mixed But Positive Market Action; Eli Lilly, Deutsche Bank, Nebius In Focus

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0:24Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today. It is Tuesday, November 11th. My name is Ken Shreve. And before we get into today's market, big day for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The market diverged a little bit. We had huge gains in the Dow today from health care names like Merck, Amgen, Johnson & Johnson, and then just sort of a mixed and mostly unchanged performance for the rest of the stock market. Before we get into all that, let me bring in our news editor, Ed Carson, who has got three stocks to watch. Good afternoon, Ed. Good afternoon. And I want to take a look at Eli Lilly, one of those drug stocks that is doing well, not on the Dow, though.

1:07Deutsche Bank and then Nebius had more of a nebulous session. Nebius had a nebulous session. Absolutely. We'll take a look at that. Let's start by taking a look at the major stock indexes here and we'll do that. Start by taking a look at the NASDAQ mentioned. NASDAQ really didn't move a whole lot today. You can see traded in a very, very tight range after that bullish move yesterday. The real action, Ed, was in blue chips today. Take a look at the Dow Jones industrial average, up more than 500 points today. That is an all-time closing high after coming close to a test of its 50-day moving average earlier in the week.

1:54And then again, in the rest of the market, not much action here. We did have some selling in AI stocks today. But again, the damage in NVIDIA, Palantir, really minimal here. S &P 500 extends its gains for the third straight session, seeing the S &P 500 up two-tenths of a percent. And then small caps as measured by the IWM. still holding right at just above the 50-day moving average here. You can see small caps edging higher by one-tenth of 1%. So, Ed, looking at the Dow today, is this kind of the safe haven trade in full effect? Why do you think money is flowing into blue chips in spades all of a sudden?

2:46Yeah, I just think some of the tech stocks, I mean, it seemed like a generally positive day. The shutdown seems to be nearing an end. I mean, the Senate has passed a funding bill. The House has not. That could still be an issue. But yeah. When is that vote, by the way? I don't know if they set one, but it's like the question is, will you get that handful of Democrats that are probably necessary to get this one over the hump? So, you know, that was just positive. You say it's a medical, some safe haven, some defensive growth names did well. I mean, there was if you look at the S &P and NASDAQ, I mean, there was some rotation out of techs and some speculative names.

3:21But it was something that Mike Webster, our chief strategist, was saying just internally, hey, some frothy stocks falling and the major indexes rising or holding their gains is pretty positive. And today's action would have been pretty positive in and of itself. But the fact that we held these gains after that big Friday upside reversal and the big Monday bounce, yeah, I'd say this is pretty encouraging. Yeah, no doubt about it. And again, the NASDAQ composite just closed with a very, very mild loss today. Recouped early losses after that nice gap up yesterday. Held tight as a button today. So breadth was also positive, slightly positive on the NASDAQ, even though it did close slightly lower.

4:11And it was positive by almost two to one on the New York Stock Exchange. So I wanted to take a look at just a couple of ETFs like we normally do. So we had the S &P 500 basically flattish today, but take a look at RSP, three straight gains here. This is the equal weighted version of the S &P 500. That was up six tenths of a percent outperforming the S &P 500. and then the equal-weighted version of the NASDAQ 100, also outperformed by a little bit today, also holding above the 50-day moving average. Bond yields just quietly here, a little bit of a rally off lows, holding above. I'm not sure if there's any real trading because the bond market closed today for Veterans Day, so I'm not sure why there's a blip.

5:03Maybe it was thought better of what yesterday's close was, but yeah. That's right. Bond market closed today due to the Veterans Day holiday. Now, we did see some selling in AI and growth stocks, Ed, under pressure again today, taking a look at a couple of growth stock ETFs. This is FFTY. I could say two pretty nice gains, followed up by a 2.4 % decline today. And then ARKK also under some pressure, not as much, but down 1 % or so. So, again, some growth stocks under pressure. But when you look at a name like NVIDIA, for example, here was a decline of 3 % today. Pretty light volume, but, you know, it really didn't do much to damage the chart.

5:55Would you agree, Ed? I agree. I mean, earnings are next week, and that'll be huge. I think the difference with FFTY and ARK is that they're below the 50-day line. I mean, NVIDIA had a huge move from just below the 50-day line. So a 3 % decline looks a lot better for NVIDIA than something else. So sometimes just how the chart position is, it's not as opposed to the stock action itself. And Palantir is another name. Oh, that didn't move much at all. That was really positive, I think. Yeah, Palantir as well, just two big gains, and then it held inside of yesterday's range. So very, very constructive price action for Palantir as well.

6:35Take a look at gold stocks, which have been leading the market here. GLD, which has been maintaining a nice strong uptrend here, came down close to a test of the 50-day moving average. Didn't quite touch the line, but it has extended gains today. Still seeing a lot of outperformance from gold stocks, Ed. Yeah. And the question is, it's already, it's got this bounce. And GDX, which did hit us yesterday, had a really powerful gain. I mean, that tends to move more to the upside and downside, the miners. Strong action here. You could still buy them. They're getting on the edge. You just have to be, you know, it's just tricky.

7:16It's just tricky. That's one thing. But, man, it's really nice action here. Yeah. And then you're seeing a lot of money. I mentioned a lot of health care names outperforming in the Dow today. Merck, a big gainer today in the Dow, crosses the 90 level. Johnson & Johnson, another big mover in the Dow. We also had Amgen. So money definitely flowing into the healthcare stocks. XLV, look at that move in the healthcare, the select sector spider ETF. ETF and then XBI. Look at this biotech ETF explosive move today. This is in the leaderboard model portfolio. XBI up 3.6 percent. And so biotech's still doing a lot of heavy lifting out there.

8:11Yeah. So all of a sudden, drugs and biotech really, really strong. So maybe if, you know, that's fine. Let some areas that got really hot take a little bit of a breather, but others are willing to take on the baton and not just drugs. There's a lot of sectors that are doing well. Most finance teams are spending on the wrong things. Expense reports, spend policy PDFs that nobody reads, a close that stretches into weeks. That's maintenance, not momentum. It's time to get Brex AF, a gentic finance that eliminates that work before it starts. Learn more at brex.com slash AF. Yep. Yep. Healthcare sector is a big sector.

8:44Well, why don't we segue into Eli Lilly and talk about talk about Eli Lilly, which has just really, really taken off here. You can see a pretty, pretty identifiable pivot here of 8.6435. And it was a nice breakout last week for Lilly. It really has taken off. When you look at a weekly chart for Lilly, it's really kind of in the process of breaking out of this very, very long consolidation. Lilly just reported our earnings, And you can see the top line growth up 38 percent to 15.6 billion. The earnings up 495 percent. Still a very compelling growth story here for Lilly Ed and showing a lot of technical strength as well.

9:34Yeah. And I go back to the weekly. I think it's just and it was something David Ryan brings up on I-BD Live a lot. But that earnings line just kept on churning higher, you know, that green line that's going up while the stock was sort of basing. And the earnings keep on coming in. And now it feels like in the last several months, it's very clear that Eli Lilly has won the obesity wars for at least the current round. I mean, there'll be a new wave of next generation pills. But in terms of Eli Lilly versus Novo Nordisk, clearly from it seems like the market has decided that efficacy and tolerance that the Eli Lilly drugs are better.

10:11And so Novo not doing so well, not saying it can't bounce back. And there's all sorts of players that have all these drugs in the pipeline. But right now, so you get that combination. So even though Lilly started this move with a really low RS line, I think it was like 33 RS rating, it's now up to 88 and probably is going to go well over 90 at this point. It's a record high. Uh, so there's that. I do feel like it's, it seems somewhat extended. I mean, I think, I think the pivot you mentioned that that was a legitimate handle. It's not going to show up on a base like this, but that was legit handle.

10:44So I think that was the time to play it. I think you could have added on to it today or yesterday. If you had some, I personally wouldn't be doing a new position here. If it pauses here, like if it forms sort of an alternate handle or a high handle or three weeks tight, you know, that would all be fine. then I think you could enter it. But I wanted to bring it up in part because, well, it's been doing great, but also because there's different ways to interpret the chart. Well, this is a stock that we want to put on leaderboard. This is a stock that has a lot of characteristics that we like to have on the leaderboard model portfolio.

11:22Great fundamentals. It's got the new going for it, And we're going to keep it on the watch list and wait for a pullback here. So after multiple up days in a row, it had that one down session right here. So it'll pull back at some point. And if it does it in light, light volume, we'll be ready to act. But yeah, I think I would agree with you. You don't want to chase it here on the weekly chart. Again, you're looking at four up weeks in a row. And it's at a point, you know, where it could start to drift lower here. And like you said, form a handle. So I think patience for now. But it is interesting.

11:59A lot of people, you know, talking about, you know, maybe catching Novo Nordisk on sale. You know, it's it's pulled back so much. Novo was in a bidding war with with with Merck for Metzera. I mean, if if if Novo's pipeline was so good, why are why are they wanting to, you know, bid for Metzera's experimental drug? So Lilly clearly dominating Novo in the weight loss market, no doubt about it. Financials are still doing well, Ed. Let's take a look at Deutsche Bank. This is a big, big German bank here, ticker symbol DB. Here is a technical breakout. Well, a stock that broke out yesterday is still holding in a buy zone here.

12:46Yeah, I mean, there's a number of foreign banks. I mean, there's other things. There's plenty of big, large U.S. banks that are doing well, but Deutsche Bank, Barclays, I mean, there's a totally different kind of thing, but new bank in new holdings in Brazil. So there seems to be a lot of banks are doing well. The economy, I think people are feeling better about the global economy, you know, for whatever reason. So, yeah, new sort of broke out, but they have earnings in a couple of days or right there at the buy point. A lot of foreign banks. A lot of foreign banks. And so you can pick your poison here.

13:18Deutsche Bank doesn't have a lot of great revenue growth, but banks often we don't care as much about revenue growth. I mean, honestly, we look. And the performance here is pretty good. I think that you should look at SAN. There's Barclay. There's Deutsche Bank. And, yeah, so, you know, what I like about Deutsche Bank, it had that prior uptrend. You know, it's not like this isn't some of the banks we're looking at, and even some of the U.S. banks. They're really the strength lines of maybe you can squint and see an uptrend over the last few months. But this one's actually had a couple of years of outperformance here.

13:48you know, which we often don't see. And this is a, you know, there's, you can buy ETFs, foreign ETFs, like for Germany or Europe, but this is one way, especially for an individual name. Most, most UF investors don't know that much about it. I don't. And so this is one of the, like, I can understand this. It's a big bank and I can understand how that plays. Yeah. This is a key point when evaluating a stock. Does it show, has it shown an ability to trend in the past. So Deutsche Bank, you can see this breakout here over the$20 level, runs up close to$40, forms another nice base here and could be ready to make another move.

14:29So good example of a prior uptrend, stock forming a base and in the early stages of another breakout. All right, let's take a look at a name that some people may not be familiar with, But this is a company very similar to CoreWeave, sort of an AI infrastructure firm, NBIS. Talk to us about Nebius Group. I know the big reason the stock gapped up here was because of this big Microsoft AI infrastructure deal, correct? Yeah, I believe that's the case. And obviously, Nebius has gone an enormous run. I think the results weren't that great this time. And people are high expectations. So this is the first time, I think, in six months that it closed below the 50-day line.

15:24Now, this could bounce right back. And then people say, oh, it's got a base. But there's been some violent selling lately. I mean, it's just in this area, this whole area hasn't done particularly well. All these AI computing plays. You know, Core, we've had a terrible day. They talked about some guidance and warned about maybe some data center delays from a third party. And some of the other names, iREN and some others, they're selling off again after massive runs. And it doesn't mean they can't come. CoreWeave, not so massive run, or the massive run was a long time ago now. But it's just something to watch out for.

16:00It's sort of like, well, wait a second. Why are these things? If AI data centers are in such amazing demand, obviously, maybe the business is fine. they just need to, the stocks need to catch up and take a break. But it's just something for, I think, investors to know. It's like that maybe some of these stocks and Oracle's another one. Oracle was so hot a couple months ago and made everybody so excited. That's around the time Nebius took off, you know, but Oracle jumped. And ever since then, it's been sort of trending lower. So it's just something to note. I mean, NVIDIA's earnings are in a week.

16:32So we'll see. I mean, And all these companies that are buying tons of NVIDIA and AMD chips, their stocks seem to be struggling a little bit. It's just something that I'm keeping an eye of. And so, you know, but then again, they've gone on huge runs. But I think that investors who are in them, I mean, something like a Nebius that, you know, it's through the 50-day line. I think you might want to, you know, I can't, you know, everybody has different styles. If you bought it really cheap, you can hold on to it. You might just think about, well, I broke through the 50-day line. Do you want to take some profits here?

17:02you know it actually has come off quite a bit from record highs uh you know how much do you want to give up so you know but yeah revenue revenue here up 322 percent year over year but uh you know the accumulation distribution rating the worst uh possible that that's an e and that that's hurt by these uh all these higher volume higher volume declines uh in in the stock It's not huge, but there are enough of them to weigh on that rating. And, Ed, when you look at the NASDAQ here, again, the NASDAQ was not reflective of a lot of the selling that we saw in certain aspects of the AI market today. So for investors investing in AI stocks, you want to recognize where the selling is.

17:53So in names like CoreWeave, Nebius, Oracle, some of the names that we mentioned, it's not clear selling in all of the AI stocks. Now, in a name like, you know, Palantir that we looked at, that had a very good day, still acting well. And even, you know, NVIDIA still holding pretty well here as well. But there is some selling in certain aspects of the AI martin. AI market. So that is going to do it for today. So let me stop my share here and I'll bring Ed back on here. Ed, thanks very much for your insight. I will see you back here tomorrow for another video. Thanks again. All right. That'll do it for today, folks.

18:46I will be in the seat tomorrow morning for IBD Live, hosting our show tomorrow. So if you haven't checked it out, just go to investors.com forward slash IBD Live. Coming up at the end of the week, we've got a very popular guest, Jim Ropel, portfolio manager. He'll be joining us Friday. So we hope you join us tomorrow. And that'll do it for today. Again, I'll be back here tomorrow for another Stock Market Today video with Ed. Until then, have a great afternoon, everyone, and we will see you back here tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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