Mixed Start To The Week But still resilient; Five Below, Urban, Veeva In Focus | Stock Market Today

0:00Justin Nielsen:This podcast is brought to you by MassMutual. For 175 years, MassMutual has stood for strength and stability, helping people secure their future and protect the ones they love. Learn more at MassMutual.com. That's MassMutual.com.

0:26Justin Nielsen:Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Monday, July 28th. It's Alyssa Koram here, and we had a mildly mixed day to kick off the week, a week that's going to be filled with some very big earnings reports that could have implications for the stock market uptrend. And joining me now to discuss today's action is my colleague, Justin Nielsen. Justin, what are we going to be taking a look at today?

0:50Alissa Coram:Yeah, we'll spend a little bit of time on retail. We've actually been doing that for the last couple of weeks, it seems like. And we'll revisit Five Below, which is F-I-V-E. Also Urban Outfitters, which, look, it shook me out on Thursday, but that doesn't mean it can't be bought again. We'll take a look at that. And then we'll go ahead and finish it off with Viva that's in the computer software medical space.

1:14Justin Nielsen:Yeah. We highlighted that one a couple of times last week. So we'll get back to that again today. Let's take a look at the major indexes before we do that. It looks like on the NASDAQ, a continuation of this steady uptrend, lower volatility moves, which you've been pointing out, Justin. The Nasdaq up three-tenths of a percent on the day. Meanwhile, the S &P 500 up just fractionally by session's close, a very mild session there. On the downside, the Dow was down about one-tenth of a percent, and the Russell 2000 small cap index down about two-tenths of a percent or so headed into the final stretch of the day.

1:59Justin Nielsen:So we did get some big news over the weekend of a trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union that did not provide a huge boost to the market. But we've been getting some pretty positive reactions to trade news in recent months. And maybe is it just the quiet before the storm, Justin, of all of these big earnings reports this week, perhaps?

2:25Alissa Coram:Yeah, I mean, that's that's the way I was kind of looking into it. But it's hard to say with some of the trade news because, I mean, really, after so many months of it, are people just kind of like, oh, we'll wait and see how it pans out. It doesn't seem like bad news is necessarily hitting the market that hard. And good news isn't necessarily making it rise that much either. So maybe it's tariff tantrums are over. But it was kind of interesting today how mixed it was. you know, on the upside, you know, usually you'll have kind of this range, this spectrum, right? And there's going to be like a few of the sector spider funds that'll be kind of flat, and then some that will be down and then some will be up.

3:11Alissa Coram:It seemed like today, you had your XLY, which is your consumer discretionary, and that's Tesla and Amazon, you know, that was up half a percent. And then you had your XLK and XLE and, you know, your SMH, your chips, you know, Now, those were kind of your gainers today, you know, all the way up to like XLE. I mean, that was up over one percent, the energy ETF and the equal weighted RSPG was up even even more, one point three percent. So it wasn't just Chevron and Exxon that was driving that forward. There was a lot of a lot of strength there. But you have the oils and energy on the one side, but SMH, the chips on the other side and tech and everything like that.

3:54Alissa Coram:But what was that?

3:57Justin Nielsen:Really strong day there for chips. Yeah.

3:58Alissa Coram:And so you had the strength there. And that was pretty much it. Everything else was kind of down. So if you look at RSP, which is the equal weighted S &P 500, that was down six tenths of a percent. So, you know, this is something that was kind of interesting where after that big gap up that we had, I mean, it started with a strong day, then a follow up. And we're just kind of holding tight there right at those previous resistance levels that you can see. Maybe at a weekly chart, you can kind of see that long term resistance level that it's getting close to. So, yeah, that's a little interesting how different it was in that regard.

4:36Alissa Coram:On the advance, advances versus decliners, a lot more decliners on both the NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange. So it was, again, a little bit mixed, but technology, chips, you know, consumer discretionary would seem like that was the place to be today. Oh, and energy. Let's not forget that. Whereas a lot of other things just not participating nearly as much.

5:00Justin Nielsen:And we will start to get some earnings reports tonight. I mean, of course, earnings season has been going on for a couple of weeks at this point, but this is one of the bigger weeks, right? And then, you know, Wednesday and Thursday, we have some key reports from some of the big tech names, potential ripple effect there on the entire AI theme. So something that we'll be watching very closely. Justin, what are you doing to prepare for this big earnings week in your portfolio? you?

5:30Alissa Coram:Well, first of all, I'm making sure that I'm very aware of when companies are reporting. So we, of course, have our earnings calendar. For those that are in market surge, you can do a screen. This is something that I do every week. And actually, this is what the earnings calendar is created from in the paper. I'll do a screen that's just based on upcoming earnings and taking a look at that. You should always know that the last week of the month and the first week of the next month, that's where most of your earnings are. I think almost 300 of the S &P 500 stocks fall in that timeframe. So it's definitely going to be very busy.

6:10Alissa Coram:So I'm always just aware, I put things on my calendar, especially the things that I own and the things that I think can move what I own. There are some of these big players, trillion dollar companies. It's not about what they do necessarily, but how are they spending their money and who are they spending it with that you sometimes see trickle down into other companies. So it's an awareness. It doesn't necessarily mean, oh, I can't do anything. I've got to sell everything and just be safe. No, in this case, we have a lot of cushion. Jim Ropel, who you do the monthly market report with, a lot of times he says, look, if you're going to get a big win in a stock, you're going to have to sit through a number of earnings.

6:50Alissa Coram:And if you're not willing to sit through earnings, you can count out those big gainers because a lot of times the gains really kind of supercharge on those earnings. And if you just take away the earnings moves, you're going to be very different in your overall performance in that stock.

7:07Justin Nielsen:Absolutely. Well said. Two more ETFs to check in on before we pivot to those three stocks. Let's go to Bitcoin. You featured this on IEBD Live this morning. We both own it up 1.1 % on the day after a shakeout on Friday. Yeah.

7:24Alissa Coram:And we talked about, hey, look, that shakeout was a little tough because it was undercutting this tight area, a line of support that it fell through, but then it was right there at another level of support. So it's almost like there were two lines there and maybe you trimmed a little bit. We did on Swing Trader. We trimmed a little bit because it broke through that, But we didn't trim at all because it got support at the 21-day moving average line. And so this is something that, as you mentioned, we both have a position in. I'm looking to potentially add if this does come back and cross above that downtrend line that you drew so wonderfully.

8:01Alissa Coram:It looks interesting.

8:03Justin Nielsen:Yeah, setting up there for a potential new add. Okay, and then gold. Man, this is the problem, child. Slipping back below the 50-day line here. Yeah.

8:14Alissa Coram:And this is why sometimes I stay away from gold and the gold stocks because I just don't play them well. It's probably a better play on a pullback than it is on a breakout because it seems like every time it gets up to that 317 level. I mean, look, gold was great if you had that as all of this tariff volatility was happening in March and April when we had the market come down so sharply. Uh, but since then it's been very, um, very back and forth. And usually I don't play gold itself. Usually I am playing some of the, uh, the, the, the miners. And so GDX is, you know, not much better looking. I mean, it has been getting support at its 50 day moving average line, but it's been very, uh, very kind of hit, hit or miss in terms of, um, when you're, when you're trying to buy on strength, but certainly, you know, getting those pullbacks has been a better opportunity.

9:06Justin Nielsen:Absolutely. I mean, you can just tell that this is an area where gold really likes to pull back to. Full disclosure, I do own a little tiny bit of gold in my portfolio, but we'll have to see if it can continue to hold that 50-day or 10-week. That's the reason why I still own it. I think that this is one that I'm trying to be a little bit more patient with because if I had the first time that I bought it, you know, 18 months ago, than I maybe would have seen some different results, right? So trying to be a little bit more patient this time around, but still following rules, of course.

9:42Alissa Coram:Oh, absolutely. Yeah.

9:44Justin Nielsen:Okay.

9:44Alissa Coram:I'm Steve Booth, CEO of Baird, an independent wealth, asset management, and global capital markets firm. At Baird, our 5 ,000 plus employees are united by an unwavering commitment to excellence and a genuine passion for helping our clients and each other succeed. As a privately held, truly employee-owned company, we treasure our independence since we can focus on delivering results to clients and taking care of our people throughout the cycles in our serve markets. Learn more at rwbear.com slash WSJ.

10:14Justin Nielsen:Let's now go to those stocks, starting with five below in the retail space. Look at that tight action that it's moving above.

10:22Alissa Coram:Yeah, this was one that I actually, I bought this as it bounced off the 21-day moving average line. and then I was adding to it as it popped above that 137.30. And then I just, I got bored. It wasn't doing anything wrong. It just wasn't moving for so long. And so I shifted the money elsewhere and I trimmed back quite a bit. I think I still have a little bit left, but yeah, I'm looking at today as another opportunity to add shares. This is a good look after that tight action. It kind of, again, reminds me sometimes to be a little patient with these. This was something that Bill O 'Neill told me before when I remember this was international game technology back in 2003.

11:06Alissa Coram:He's like, why did you sell that winner? And I'm like, because it wasn't going anywhere. I wanted to move the money elsewhere. And he's like, sometimes you're too impatient. You got to let these things develop. So five below, very tight action, really wasn't doing anything wrong. It was holding the 10-day moving average line, but very strong action today. And you've got a lot of stocks that are kind of looking interesting in this space. Ollie's was something that we added to Swing Traders Today. That had a nice move, ended up being up 4%. We were getting this early in the day as it was crossing above the high from just a few trading days ago and a really strong close.

11:42Alissa Coram:So not only do you have Five Below looking good, but you also have other members of the group that are also looking very, very strong.

11:49Justin Nielsen:Exactly. And I think the other thing about Five Below that's a good lesson here, Justin, is yes, sometimes buying a gap up can pay off, but I like waiting for a stock to prove itself, get above the moving average, then form a new base, right? To that point that you said there about patience. So you can always have an opportunity down the road if the stock continues to perform well. We had an earnings report that also showed improving fundamentals because at that time of that gap up in May, you weren't quite seeing the strong fundamentals from the most recent quarter. A little bit of choppiness there, but last quarter was the strongest revenue growth in quite a while, at least a couple of years here, Justin.

12:39Justin Nielsen:So we're seeing improvement not only in the technical picture with this impressive move off the lows, a base has formed here, but also in the fundamentals as well, at least in the short term here. Yeah.

12:51Alissa Coram:And so this is a good reminder that a lot of stocks that were in our model books were actually turnaround situations. You know, it might be a little bit too early to call victory on five below, but it's certainly it's nice to see it going in the right direction. And when you look at the estimates, those are looking pretty positive going forward in terms of the annual earnings and the quarterly earnings as well. You know, some, you know, I mean, for 2026, it does show a negative, but you're coming right back the next year. So in the quarterly and also that green little triangle does say that those estimates have been getting revised up.

13:32Alissa Coram:So that's that's also a nice little thing to see. All right.

13:36Justin Nielsen:Elsewhere in retail, let's circle back to Urban Outfitters. Broke out of a cup with handle last week, and I think it did close above that buy point on a weekly basis, although it did test investors intro week. Let's see here. Last price of the week,$75.61. So slightly above the buy point, but take a closer look for active traders like yourself, Justin. swing traders out there a little bit tricky, but is this week offering a second chance so far?

14:09Alissa Coram:I think so. And again, I need to remind myself, patience, patience, patience. Sometimes it wasn't doing anything wrong. It just came to the 10 day moving average line. But that was enough for me to be like, okay, well, I actually was leaving this with a profit. I had bought before the 7445. It's a reminder that sometimes these early entries can be very helpful. I think if I had bought it at the traditional buy point, I would have been a little bit quicker to maybe sell to protect the profit while I had it. But this at least got me out of this with a nice profit. But look at what happened after that Thursday down move.

14:50Alissa Coram:Came right back, kind of closed in the mid-range, and then today really followed up. So it's kind of like if you held on to this, no harm, no foul. The volume was actually not incredibly high. And when you talk about fundamentals, this one's got it in spades. So compared to five below, this is just have a lot more strength, a lot more stability to its earnings, not nearly as lumpy and a lot of things going for them in that case. Um, we've talked a little bit about the fundamental side in terms of not only, um, you know, does it kind of appeal to the younger generation? My daughter, uh, you know, she works at a clothing store.

15:26Alissa Coram:She exchanges with an employee at Urban Outfitters and they kind of use each other's discounts, you know, sometimes to buy from each other's stores. And then you've of course got the folks that are a little bit older, not that you're old Allie, but you're, you know, your generation that's going for the anthropology, um, a little bit more business-like and not the ripped jeans as much.

15:47Justin Nielsen:Yeah, still trendy. Yeah, still trendy, right. Millennial Gen X trendy, I suppose.

15:53Alissa Coram:So yeah, and then you've got the Free People brand as well. So you're hitting on a lot of cylinders. As you've mentioned before, the same store sales have been looking very strong and the Anthropologie brand has been doing very well. So it's a reminder that, look, sometimes if you get shaken out of something, it doesn't mean you can't buy it back if it hasn't broken anything, if the chart still looks good. And I think the chart on Urban Outfitters still warrants a position here, even though it did have that ugly Thursday.

16:24Justin Nielsen:And with these two retail names, something to keep in mind is that many of them report later in earnings season. So with Urban, we've got about a month. And with Five Below, yeah, it's set to report the day after Urban Outfitters. So usually get their retail earnings in the latter portion of earnings season. So we still got some time for these to work potentially. All right, let's round things out with a look at Viva Systems. This is one that Ed wanted to highlight a couple times last week. So I guess great minds think alike here. Justin blasted out of a longer, sloppier base a couple months ago and now went really tight after that and is now trying to peak above a new, more orderly base.

17:13Alissa Coram:Yeah, and here's another one where we have earnings 30 days out, so we've got some time on this. We don't have to worry about those creeping up. It's in a little bit of a different area, computer, software, medical. And look, you might look at XLV, the healthcare area, and the relative strength has been pretty poor on this. But look, while some of the stocks might not be doing great, A lot of them do use Viva systems. This is more of a picks and shovels play. It doesn't really care who wins as long as you're using their software to help you out in the life sciences industry area. And what I really like is you see this base on the weekly chart here.