In short
Market turbulence into year-end, with the Nasdaq and AI-linked stocks hit hard while market breadth/leadership looks mixed; focus on chart “bases,” relative strength, and sector/ETF rotation.
Key claims
AI selloff is news-driven and may not mean charts are “broken,” but more downside is possible short term; equal-weight S&P (RSP) holding up suggests rotation/breadth improvement; mega-cap funds act like “closet indexers,” keeping flows concentrated in large names; some non-AI areas (retail, materials, biotech, energy, fertilizers) may benefit from rotation.
Notable examples
Nasdaq Composite -1.69% vs S&P 500 -1.1%, Dow -0.5%, Russell 2000 -1.5%; Qs -1.9% while RSP -0.68%. AI leaders: Broadcom down ~11.4%, Nvidia down ~3%, Sandisk down ~15%, Google pulling back toward the 21-day, semis (SMH) down ~4.5%.
Guests
Mike Webster (senior market strategist). On-air hosts: Joe Davis and Christine Kashkari. No other guests named.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Overview and NASDAQ Performance
0:45 to 2:14
Discussion of the recent performance of the NASDAQ and other indices.
“But let's pull up the NASDAQ and got to say that the NASDAQ was hit fairly hard.”
Introduction to Today's Stocks
2:14 to 2:48
Introduction to key stocks being discussed, including Ulta Beauty, Nutrien, and TKO.
“The Dow Jones Industrial only down half a percent.”
Analysis of NASDAQ Weakness
2:48 to 5:43
In-depth analysis of the reasons behind the NASDAQ's weakness, including the AI theme.
“What's happening and why is the NASDAQ so much weaker?”
Individual Stock Insights
5:43 to 6:41
Insights into specific stocks like Broadcom, Oracle, and their recent performance.
“You don't have the moves like we've seen across the board.”
Future Market Predictions
6:41 to 10:50
Speculation on the future of AI stocks and potential market movements.
“and that's certainly in the cards for these.”
Technical Analysis of Key Stocks
10:50 to 14:00
Technical analysis and potential strategies for key stocks in the market.
“So anyone who's looking at it with their spreadsheets and doing the fundamental work on it saying, okay, there's no longer this risk.”
Analyzing Broadcom's Market Structure
14:00 to 15:12
Discussion about Broadcom's price structure and its classification as an ascending base.
“Someone was asking if this is an ascending base kind of like structure with the pullbacks coming in higher.”
Market Breadth and Large Cap Performance
15:12 to 17:30
Examination of the performance of the average stock and the S&P 500's equal weight index.
“So this is why I'm not super bearish right now, because you had your average stock, average large cap.”
Cup and Handle Pattern Insights
17:30 to 20:36
Analysis of the cup with handle pattern in the context of current market behavior.
“It felt like, you know, like that's not normal.”
Sector Rotation and Stock Performance
20:36 to 21:53
Discussion on sector rotation and the performance of various stocks amidst market fluctuations.
“because when people want to reduce exposure, they'll sell Qs or Nasdaq futures or S &P futures and that spills over to everything in there.”
Show all 28 chapters
Evaluating the Technology Sector and Mega Caps
21:53 to 23:48
Insights on the performance of technology stocks and the implications of mega cap stocks.
“But because of that breakout, it kind of, and then the yesterday was, um, was really good action there.”
Exploring the XME Sector and Mixed Performance
23:48 to 26:40
An overview of the XME sector's strengths and the diversity of its components.
“Well, every time we think that the mega caps are done, they're not done.”
ARK Innovation Fund and Risk Assessment
26:40 to 28:04
Discussion on the performance of the ARK Innovation Fund and associated risks.
“we'll just bite the bullet and put it on.”
Market Overview and Bitcoin ETF Insights
28:04 to 32:36
Discussion on market trends, Bitcoin ETFs, and trading strategies.
“But I think it's a great trading vehicle, the ARK.”
Home Construction Market Dynamics
32:36 to 36:59
Analysis of the home construction market and factors influencing trades.
“RSP, as we've talked about already, pulled back from the breakout a little bit, but not broken at all.”
Sector Performances and Investment Strategies
36:59 to 42:07
Evaluation of sector performances and strategic investment insights.
“If you can keep those losses small, you can really take advantage of some of these big moves.”
Market Overview: ETFs and Sector Performance
42:07 to 44:17
An analysis of various ETFs including XBI, XLF, and XLV, discussing their recent trends.
“This has just been trending so nicely above the 21-day moving average line.”
Market Overview: ETFs and Sector Performance
44:21 to 44:43
An analysis of various ETFs including XBI, XLF, and XLV, discussing their recent trends.
“It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks.”
Stock Spotlight: Ulta Beauty
44:43 to 48:20
Discussion on Ulta Beauty's strong breakout after earnings and its chart action.
“And speaking of retail, Ulta Beauty, I do have a position in this.”
Exploring Nutrien and TKO
48:20 to 52:12
Insights into Nutrien's resistance clearance and TKO's potential breakout.
“at least from a chart standpoint, is more like the low of this base.”
Weekly Chart Review and Market Context
52:12 to 56:00
A review of weekly candles and market context, discussing various indices and their performances.
“Well, I'm going to stop my sharing and turn the controls over to you, Mike.”
Analyzing NASDAQ Trends
56:00 to 57:25
Learn about the current state and trends of the NASDAQ market.
“So now what we're doing is waiting for our next one.”
Support and Resistance Levels
57:25 to 59:15
Understand key support and resistance levels for NASDAQ and IWM.
“Certainly not as good as SPY, but it's living in this area.”
Fibonacci Moving Averages Explained
59:15 to 1:01:01
Discover how Fibonacci moving averages help gauge market trends.
“And, you know, it could come all the way into really you wouldn't want it to go underneath the 50 day, which then you'd look at some lines around there.”
SPY and Market Indicators
1:01:01 to 1:02:29
Explore SPY performance and its implications for market health.
“Let's take a look at SPY with Allie's favorite one.”
Final Thoughts on Market Conditions
1:02:29 to 1:08:28
Gain insights on current market conditions and Fed's impact.
“And your IWM was your strongest, followed by the RSP.”
Preparing for Year-End Strategies
1:08:28 to 1:09:45
Learn about strategies to prepare for the year-end market shifts.
“setting us up, setting the market up for us just pausing for a while.”
Market Discussion Overview
1:10:03 to 1:10:19
Learn about the current market trades and what to expect next week.
“So you can kind of follow along with us.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Look, when people start to gamify investing, right? So when you think about people being rewarded with balloons and fireworks for trading, which we know is the more you trade, the worse offer you're going to be in the long run. I'm Joe Davis. And I'm Christine Kashkari. And this is Season 2 of Better Vantage by Vanguard, an eight-part video podcast series hosted by custom content from WSJ and Vanguard.
0:31Hello and welcome to another episode of the Stock Market Day video. It's Friday, December 12th. We're wrapping up the 2025 year and there's a little bit of turbulence out there. To help us walk through it, it's Mike Webster, our senior market strategist. How are you doing, Mike? Good. It's Friday. That's always a good day. Exactly. That's something. So we'll get right into it. But let's pull up the NASDAQ and got to say that the NASDAQ was hit fairly hard. We're also going to cover a few stocks today in addition to some sector analysis, as we typically do. The stocks that we're going to cover today later in the show include Ulta Beauty.
1:12I do have a position there. We're also going to look at Nutrien and TKO. Strangely enough, you know, I haven't been following that as much because my son hasn't been into wrestling, you know. Oh, half the reason why I picked it was for your son, frankly. I mean, it looked really good, but I was like, oh. Yeah, no, it's funny. Ever since John Cena turned heel, he just kind of like, yeah, it ruined it for him for a second. So anyway, let's go ahead and start with the— He was principal for the day, as I hear. Yes, yes, he was principal of the day. It still is, actually. The school day is still going on.
1:52So he's principal for the day at his school, and he was very excited about it. So he was having a good time having lunch with the principal and helping the principal through his day. So it was very cool. But, yeah, let's get back to the market. NASDAQ Composite down 1.69%. I mean, it was a hard hit for a lot of stocks today. S &P 500 was down 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial only down half a percent. So very big difference there. Russell 2000 down 1.5 percent. Worth mentioning because we've been talking a lot about this. Actually, I wrote a column about this today. Invesco S &P 500 equal weighted RSP.
2:36That was down only six to seven tenths of a percent. And yes, I did just throw in six, seven for my 11 year old there. So, Mike, go ahead and talk to us about the NASDAQ. What's happening and why is the NASDAQ so much weaker? Yeah, I mean, look, we have the AI theme getting hit really hard today. I mean, like really hard. I'll pull a Broadcom because that's kind of where, you know, all the action was today. And I would say that this is one of the leading stocks in the market from all sorts of standpoints. is, you know, it's not the biggest market cap, but it's one of the biggest market caps. And it's, you know, it's been acting better than, you know, pretty much most of the other chips out there.
3:25And with the earnings, you know, at first when the earnings came out, they were up a little bit in, you know, in after hours from what I saw. And I didn't get a chance to look at the report because we were just so tied up with, you know, other stuff at work. And then it, you know, Then it faded, and obviously we saw what happened today. Folks didn't like all the details in there, but let's look at Oracle, which was another one that had some news this week that the market was focused in on. I wasn't as much focused in on this because it's been a laggard recently. So if it would have had a big up day, it really wouldn't have meant that much.
4:07And really the fact that it had a big down day, frankly, it held up better than it's low, the 185.63. So it was almost, you know, mixed OK news, even though it was down. How much was that down yesterday? It was down a tremendous amount, but it's all in the position. Well, down 10.8. Yeah. Yeah. So 10.8. Now pull up the Broadcom again and let's see how much that was down. Broadcom was down. I think a little more than that. Yeah, 11.4. Yeah. So this one, much more meaningful, right? Because it's a leader getting hit. A laggard getting hit isn't that big of a deal. A leader getting hit, and this spilled over to all the stocks in the AI space.
4:57There are a lot of double-digit losses there. And so that is going to and things like pull up a sand disc, for example, you know, a really hot stock and down 15 percent, but still above its 50 days. So a lot of these stocks that have run up so high, they can come in. I mean, this thing could come in and undercut the 183 and still be up a tremendous amount from the, you know, the 48, 50 dollars where it broke out from. So I think there's potentially more downside in the AI space in the very short term. And that's just I'm looking at the AI just like the Internet back in the 90s. And it didn't go in a straight line up.
5:44So this is to be expected. You don't have the moves like we've seen across the board. And pull up an NVIDIA, which is everyone's favorite in the space. And yeah, it was down 3%, but it hasn't been super hot lately. So it's just base building at this point. So they're not broken. And pull up a Google, for example, which is another, you know, hot AI related. And this is just a pullback into its 21 day. Yeah, it's not, you know, not fun that has been going down for a few weeks. and the team, Eagle Eyes, Ken and Hat Man, Dave Chung over there who managed leaderboard, they've just done a tremendous job having Google on their lists for a long period of time.
6:36And this is just doing what's normal and natural. But it doesn't mean it can't pull all the way into the 50-day line. and that's certainly in the cards for these. This one looks much better than, let's go back to a Broadcom for a second. When you see the damage hit like this, the good thing is, well, the bad thing is, is down 11 % on a day. The good thing is it was on news. So when news comes out, all the analysts who don't even look at charts will just put stuff in their spreadsheets and factor in what their valuation that they want to pay for it. And that's either a lot higher or a lot lower or sometimes about the same.
7:23And so they're adjusting to that, the new news. But it's not a broken chart. A broken chart would have been if it went under the 32906. It's still hitting higher highs and higher lows. But it's two days into a pullback. So we don't know if it's going to hold the 32906. But this is what the left side of a base looks like. And, you know, it could certainly put in a lot of time. So what does that tell you? Well, if some of the best stocks in that space are having trouble, or let's pull up a GEV. This is something that we tried on Swing Trader today early on in the day and had to back away from it because this one had had positive news earlier in the week.
8:10and it had this gap up and we were trying to figure out a way to get into it. I traded it a few times personally after the gap or actually in the pre-market action when it was up on that gap. And then, you know, when you're buying a gap, you either have to give it a ton of room, like a ton of room, like 15 % or so, or you have to take a stab at it, put some stops in. If it can't hold your stop, then back away from it. And sometimes those stops, you got to give it a little bit of time. It hits your stop and you see if, you know, most stops that you're going to use, everyone else sees it too. So sometimes you want to give it 15 minutes or a half an hour to an hour to see if it can just shake out below that and move up.
8:55And today it wasn't doing it. So we backed away. But I still think let's go back to the daily on this one. in this space, you know, this is at the top of my list to get back into because you had this nice base. Let's look at it on a weekly chart. And you had, I'm sorry, we're going into some individual stocks early, but I think it's kind of important with what's gone on with the market this week. So now this is what's influencing the index, right? I mean, especially the NASDAQ. You got Gotta look at these if you want to understand what's happening. Yeah. So this, if you look at model book stocks or what people call true market leaders and you look at their moves, this looks like, you know, maybe two thirds into a model book move, not the end of a move when you have a long base like that.
9:47So this looks like a stock that can hit a thousand plus. doesn't mean it's going to do it in a straight line, but we did have a couple of straight lines in there in 24 as well as in 25 out of those bases. So I think there's a lot of potential here. You had a RS line blue dot on your weekly, but now you're just trying to figure out, does this AI hit that we're taking, is that over over the weekend? And it could be, you could have some big analysts or influential people come and say that it's overdone and it kind of turns the fear into the fear of missing out and we just snap back next week, that would be the least healthy thing.
10:34But that would be nice if it happened, you know, being December and all and going into the year end, that's a whole nother can of worms. But you'd rather that be playing, you know, still play out. but most likely you're probably going to need some time. I think this one is going to be the canary and one of the canaries in the coal mine, so to speak, because of this base form breaking out, let's go back to the daily, where they came and pre-announced and when there's a pre-announcement plus a buyback, those are really big deals from a fundamental standpoint. So anyone who's looking at it with their spreadsheets and doing the fundamental work on it saying, okay, there's no longer this risk.
11:16They've told us where they think things are going to be in their backlog and all that stuff. And so it has every reason to go higher. Now, if this doesn't go higher, higher meaning taking out today's high and moving back above 700. That would be normal and natural if this thing is over. So I'm going to be looking at this as a sign is, I'm not saying it's the best stock in the AI space. I'm just saying it's in this position to give us a lot of information. And so if that takes out today's high and 700, I'll be like, okay, the AI thing might be, you know, done with its move. And if it doesn't, then, you know, this might have to form a base on top of this and probably could get as low as 600.
12:06That's why when you take a stab at it, you've got to back away from it because, you know, it closed the gap from the 649, 69. And at that point, you know, it could close the rest of the gap from that we had this week. You don't want to be sitting in that if you don't have to. So let's go back to the Broadcom to kind of know there. with this one you're looking right at the 50 day that it stopped in and around there which is also the top of that last base that you had and that's something that bill o 'neill the founder of ibd would always look at is when things were pulling back was it stopping in and around not to the penny or even within a percent but in and around in the area where it should stop so it's got multiple things going for it to stop in and around here.
12:55It's got its 50-day, plus it has that pivot from the last base, plus the 374, which it's underneath already. But in this space is where it should get support if it's going to turn and go right back up versus base build. I think the most important level on this is a 32906, because then if it takes that out, now you're We're starting to kind of, the trend is starting to change as far as you're no longer having higher lows in there because that's your last marked low. But that would be, you know, probably the bottom of it or the left side of a potential base. So I'd be watching both of these stocks.
13:37There's other ones too, but watching both of these to see how they play out. And if we're just back off to the races, you know, it gets some upgrades over the weekend and we take out today's high. I just I I would what I prefer doesn't really matter. But what I think is logical is let's pull up the RSP, the equal weight again. Well, just real quick on this Broadcom. Someone was asking if this is an ascending base kind of like structure with the pullbacks coming in higher. I don't know if you would consider this a pullback here or just, you know, part of the pullback now, including today. Yeah, so it's on the long side.
14:22Bill wouldn't look at it as an ascending base. Let's go to the weekly. It's easier to see it there. Typically, you don't have, how long was that cup? Like six weeks. Yeah. So, I mean, it's borderline. And most of the time you don't have an ascending base where any of the pullbacks are really six weeks long. But it can be in the spirit of it. So a hard and fast rule, Bill would say, you know, nine to 16 weeks. And, you know, one of the hard and fast rules are each pullback has to be higher than the last pullback. So it is in that camp or, you know, in the theme of an ascending base, but it's not in a standard looking ascending base.
15:09But yes, taking out the 32906, that would change the look of it and it certainly would no longer be in the family of a long ascending base. So you wanted to go to RSP. Yeah. So this is why I'm not super bearish right now, because you had your average stock, average large cap. So this equal weight of the S &P 500 hit a fresh high today. And even with all the selling that we saw in the market, down only 0.68. And you had the RS line poking up. So it's telling you it's doing better than the S &P over the last several days. And it's above its moving averages. the RS line moving averages but even held above yesterday's low so contrast that with let's look at just look at today's bar and yesterday's bar now let's pull up the Q's so this is your large cap tech and so underneath that broke your 21 day is sitting there at your 50 day but if you step back from that I know Pattern Rec says it's a flat base but it's really a cup with handle and we're in the handle portion.
16:21And what happens in a handle, you tend to have shakeouts in there. So if I was just looking at this in isolation, what you'd want would be a gap down on Monday with an upside reversal, because that would be, you really picture perfect from a cup with handle standpoint. We'll see what we're gonna get, but you always wanna look at all the, what's normal and natural, what would you know what would break a chart and you know what would be healthy so unless look at and the handle could be a little bit longer than that you know it doesn't have to be on Monday but it also if it is Monday it does kind of fit the theme that you've often talked about the two and a half day you know pullback where you get a day down a day down and then you start weak and strong for an upside reversal on that third day.
17:16Exactly. And that's kind of my, that becomes kind of my base case for any time something is pulling back. It doesn't mean that it's always two and a half days. Anyone who does any back testing will see that sometimes it's one day, sometimes it's seven days. Oh, let's pull up Lily. You know, that pulled back 519 days. It felt like, you know, like that's not normal. Will it ever have an update again? yeah i mean i do have a position in this you know but i had sold it a few days ago because it was like wow this is just not normal i wanted to wait for it to get back above a thousand we put it back on swing trader yesterday we didn't add to it today because we weren't really up on it or or weren't up on it materially i don't even think we were up on it um from the ad so we'd like to Someone had asked that in the Q &A.
18:08That's why I'm saying that. But, you know, the money could be flowing in still into this area. Plus, like, pull up a Goldman Sachs. That one, you know, looked very strong this week. And, you know, we had had it on Swing Trader and we locked in some gains on there. But probably locked it in too early, frankly. And it's very, we were just concerned because J.P. Morgan was getting hit and I was afraid it was going to spill over to that. But it's not this day that looked really, really odd on J.P. Morgan. Yeah, it's better to just like shoot first and ask questions later. So we backed out of it. But this looks strong.
18:52So I'd be more concerned if I was looking at thousands of charts as I do every day and everything was broken. And right now it just feels kind of reminiscent of, can you go back to the NASDAQ composite? It feels very reminiscent of that, the Deep Seek day. Where was the Deep Seek day? January 27th. So right here. Okay. So let's do a change date to January 27th.
19:29and we'd like to do the change date on here because i want people to get into the habit of using the change date it's so valuable so pull up nvidia because that one got smoked that day and again just so people know we're back in time so this isn't what nvidia looked like today uh this was deep seek day on january 27th yeah yeah so that got killed and pull up let's pull up rsp I don't even remember what RSP did that day. RSP was flat. That was up a little bit. So it's very reminiscent of that, but it was kind of in isolation. So just that's what it feels like is a group rotation. And we can go back to the current market and the rest of the regularly scheduled program.
20:17But sorry to get off on the tangent, but I do think it was important to put the context of what was going on today. So in a nutshell, if you just tune in or you had tuned out when I was babbling, today feels like specific to AI-related stocks and non-AI-related. Yes, they get caught up in the index level selling because when people want to reduce exposure, they'll sell Qs or Nasdaq futures or S &P futures and that spills over to everything in there. but you want to look on the margin and what was holding up. And there were a number of stocks that were in areas that were holding up. And we'll see that as we look through the sectors.
21:02That's what I was just going to say is because you brought up that there was a little bit of sector rotation. So let's go ahead and take a look at the sectors. As usual, what we do is we start with the worst first and the hardest hit, no big surprise, SMH, the VanEck Semiconductor, Broadcom being a very large component in there, Nvidia as well but this was down four and a half percent below the 21 day moving average line but still above the 50 day moving average line so it's it's not like it's um I mean I'd be hard pressed to say this is broken uh just I mean today was bad but is it broken no it I wouldn't say it's broken now what is not ideal is that two days ago you poked up the way you did yeah so it feels like a failed breakout at this point.
21:47Now, if that hadn't done that on that day, this would look totally normal and natural. But because of that breakout, it kind of, and then the yesterday was, um, was really good action there. Cause think about it. You had a failed breakout and then you snapped back and you went closed at your highs on, on the day, Even though it was down on the day, that day looks to me better than the day before when it was breaking out because you had this nice shakeout, takes out a lot of stops and close near your highs. So it wanted to go up, but it was waiting for the Broadcom news. And then it just couldn't handle that.
22:26Four and a half percent on an ETF. That's pretty bad. And like, let's pull up TSM and I'll try to not get on more tangents, but this might be a two hour show. Like that was a breakout failure at this point. I still think it might work out like breakout failures can resolve themselves. But at this point, you know, if you'd bought that breakout, in my opinion, you got to back away from it until it can take out really kind of yesterday's highs to prove that it's, you know, moving back up. I'll shut up. Looking also down our list, XLK, the technology sector spider ETF, of course, no big surprise. This was hit hard as well with AI taking a big drop.
23:11This got down below its 50-day moving average line. So again, not broken, but certainly you'd like to see it get back in the upper half of this base. Let's talk a little about FNGS because as much as the Magnificent 7 and the Fang stocks have been all the rage, This is not looking nearly as strong as the other, you know, 493 stocks in the S &P 500 as we looked at with RSP. So is this kind of, again, we're seeing strength in the small caps. Is this a little bit of, hey, you've had your run mega caps. Let's give someone else a chance. Well, every time we think that the mega caps are done, they're not done.
23:55They're done for two days. Yeah. And I think that's kind of the market mechanics of things that you've got all these big funds that have so many assets under management that they're just a bunch of closet indexers, whether they're doing it consciously or subconsciously, or just because that's the only place that they can put their money unless they want to own 2 ,500 stocks. so it's there's this bias towards going into the the googles and the apples and the invidias and the broadcoms of the world because they can get in and they can get out and also they can't get hurt that bad if if the market has let's just call it a five percent weight on a mega cap let's say google or something that a fund manager can't really get in trouble if they're got a three, four, five, even six percent weight in there because it's not a big deal.
24:53Now, if they have something that's not in the S &P 500 and they get killed in it, then, you know, it's it's problematic for them. Right. So you just have the market mechanics. Not really sticking your neck out to have those big ones. Right. No one's going to be like, oh, that was really weird and strange. Yeah. So that's what you see out there. I mean, just look at mutual fund holdings and they're all a bunch of closet indexers. I don't blame them at all. Like it's, it's not a negative thing, but that's why these things have been working. And it looks like for once, and I've said this a million times that it, that it's broadening out and it's broadening out today and it's been broadening out recently.
25:33Um, but I wouldn't count them out just because of the market mechanics of it. But if they wanted to sit out for a quarter, that would be very healthy. XME, this is a area that you and I have been talking about. I mean, it's looked so strong, but when you look at the holdings, it's like all over the place. It's got coal, it's got copper, gold, silver, steel, you know, there's just like a little bit of everything. And you kind of like, well, why would I get XME instead of really going where the strength is? But man, this has been coming up very strongly and had a great day yesterday pulled back today but still um still looking pretty good looks beautiful that's the area you know to rotate into if you are if you don't already have some but like you said it's such a mixed bag in there that we we were wanting to put that on swing trader like four times over the last two weeks and just kept on doing it through other ways like we would put on you know other gold and silver related names.
26:35But, you know, this is probably something that the next time it sets up, we'll just bite the bullet and put it on. But it's, you know, just out of position here. ARKK, the ARK Innovation Fund by Kathy Woods. This has come up to its 50-day moving average line, got turned away. This kind of represents your more speculative growth. You know, it does have a big position in Tesla, if I'm not mistaken still. And Tesla was, you know, having a great day today. But yeah, RKK couldn't couldn't bite the downdraft from so many of the other stocks in its in its holdings. Yeah, I backed away from the arcade that I was playing for various reasons.
27:20I was playing it. It seemed like that area was getting hot again. And Tesla's her biggest position. It's mine as well. And I was adding to it today. But it's super risky. And, like, I mean, that thing, you know, you could wake up one day and have it be down 10 % plus and be like, yeah, that's pretty much par for the court. So it is a risky stock. But the one that threw me was Hood because let's go to Hood because I was trading that and we were trading on SwingTrader and didn't end up working out. there's some news that came out yesterday um that was hitting it as well as it kind of trades um related to the the crypto space and that was getting hit so it was kind of a double whammy but that that's why we were backing away from the arcade because this one seemed like by far the best quality one that she was playing um and when that was getting hit it was just like okay let's Just go ahead and, you know, exit out of that.
28:26But I think it's a great trading vehicle, the ARK. Yeah. And to your point, next on our list, well, I mean, we've already talked about the Qs down, you know, 1.9 percent. But next on our list was the Bitcoin ETF, Ibit. Certainly, this has been in a major drop off since October where it made highs. and it's still struggling to kind of get its footing. Go to the monthly chart on that one for a second. You want to know the character of what you're dealing with. And maybe I could put a GBTC just to get more history. This is the character of what it's doing, and it could get a lot worse and still be within character.
29:11That one could easily take out 60, which is another 10 points from here, without looking abnormal, even taking out 40. Just look at those pullbacks that it had. You would think over time, given the amount of people that now have some exposure to crypto or Bitcoin, at least from a fund level, that the pullbacks, the drawdowns from each time it has these major corrections would be smaller and smaller. But still, from the peak to trough of each one of those, you know, if we had something even half as much as that, which would be very nice to say, you know, like if it only went half from what was it, 50 down to six or seven bucks or something like that.
30:03half of that would be from the last major V-shaped pullback in 2020. No, no, no, in 2020. To the right, that one. From there down to like$7. That could still happen in crypto, right? And you have to be, if you're playing that space, you can't just be always just super bullish. Look at the chart or look at something and that could be in the cards. And so trade it accordingly, you know, and that's why I'm just not a buy and holder of those. Although the folks that have been buying and holding, they're laughing all the way to the bank, but that's a different type of stomach. My stomach can't handle that.
30:45Absolutely. Absolutely. IGV software. Look, you know, this has Oracle. This has, you know, Microsoft, a lot of the kind of old guard that has been struggling under its 50 day moving average line. So no big surprise. That's where IGV, the software tech by iShares is at. QQEW was a little bit stronger. This was only down 1.3%. This is the equal weighted NASDAQ 100. So, again, compare that to the Qs that were down 1.9%. So, again, not as bad for the equal weighted. It's really a lot of the mega caps that were dropping things. SPY coming in right there at 1.1 in terms of its move down. XLE, the Energy Select Spider ETF, that was down about 1%, but still, again, not looking broken, still above its 21-day moving average line.
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31:42And XRT, the retail area, this has been looking very interesting, came up to highs. And, you know, for as much as we talk about concerns about the economy and the consumer and everything like that, consumer sentiment. This is something that Jeffrey Hirsch, the editor of Stock Traders Almanac, brought up the other day. You know, there's a lot of people saying that they feel uncomfortable, but their behavior is that they're still buying. Right. They're still participating and buying stuff. You know, the consumer is strong in terms of what their behavior actually is. So XRT was down today by a percent, but right up there at former highs.
32:26XOP, the U.S. explorers and producers in the oil space. This is another one that broke out, but kind of came in a little bit recently. a few of the metals just to kind of take a little bit of a deeper dive there i mean you've got the steel etf this has just been on a tear uh it you know broke out back here uh had a test of the 50 moving average line and has been super strong as has gold i do have a position in gdx myself this broke out yesterday um pulled back a little bit today but certainly not a failed breakout at this point, just kind of pulled back from yesterday's gains. So we'll see about that.
33:08RSP, as we've talked about already, pulled back from the breakout a little bit, but not broken at all. XLI, the industrials, kind of a similar look. You know, we're now getting into the theme of the things that are holding up a little bit better. I totally agree. And the XRT that you pulled up was probably the most interesting looking one and where I would say folks should spend their time over the weekend just looking in that space. And why I say that is look at that RS line versus its moving averages. And it poked up three, four weeks back and hasn't looked back. And this is a normal area where it would have a little bit of a handle here and pause.
33:54And that pause could be, you know, a week, two weeks and be normal, or it can just do a cup without a handle and just take out the 89.41. But I would say more so than buying the ETF, I would look for individual stocks in that space. You brought up GGS Goldman Sachs earlier. Here is KBWB. This has been looking very strong, you know, recently. So pulled back a little bit today, but not a blemish on the chart by any stretch. XLU, the utilities, this is kind of a mixed bag, right? Because we were calling this AI adjacent. And a lot of times this does well in defensive times. So today might have been not down as much for some defense, but it still is below its 50 day, below its 21 day moving average line.
34:47So not necessarily something that, you know, looks actionable here. Now, ITB, this looked very interesting last week, you know, breaking out, but then really kind of came right back in. Bounced off the 200 day moving average line. And despite the 10 year treasury yield going up, you know, fairly significantly gapping up today, I'm just going to show the 10 year treasury yield. I know you don't look at it, Mike, but this is, you know, where the 10 year treasury yield was. And, you know, this, of course, you know, does influence mortgages and everything like that. But, yeah, ITB, what do you think here for the home construction area?
35:23I think it's a very frustrating group to trade. I've traded it multiple times because it's set up and I'll trade it again as it's setting back up. And this is showing relative strength on a day like today. Right. You know that with as you said, with with the interest rates doing what it did today, you it had every reason to sell off more and being down point to eight when you've got things like Broadcom down 11 percent. That is relative, you know, that is relative strength or even just versus RSP and the SPY and the Qs. It's relative strength, but it's not in position yet. It had a breakup failure from a from a weird position about a week ago.
36:07Not a weird, but a non-orthodox position. And it tried to break out and it couldn't. And so I'm just watching this on the right side, waiting for the next signal. And I'll try it again and I'll try it again and I'll try it again. because this area, when it does go, it tends to go for long periods of time. It's just kind of hard to get a toehold that works because it's, you know, it just keeps on failing. But well, and to your point, you know, one of the reasons why you can try and try again is because if you're taking those positions and if you're cutting your loss quickly enough and you're not taking a big loss, then you can try and try and try again.
36:47And then eventually, as you said, You get one of those that works and that can be, you know, more than make up for all the small losses that you might have taken where your timing was just a little bit early. So that's just the way the math works, right? If you can keep those losses small, you can really take advantage of some of these big moves. And home construction, the home builders have definitely done that for us in the past. I'll just tell, I'll give DC a little like, you know, basic thing to do over the weekend if they wanted to is allow some, put some regulation in there. One deregulation so we get more houses built, but allow folks to take their mortgages, you know, because lots of people are in the, you've got mortgages in the twos and the threes.
37:31and do a one-time thing where they can, now there'll be negative unintended consequences to that, but allow them to at least do a one-time move and keep that same mortgage. And that would, I think, really kind of jumpstart that market. I don't hear anyone talking about it. Maybe they are, but it just seems like the most obvious thing to do because you talk to anyone, it's like, oh, I want to move, but my mortgage is 3 % or it's 2.75 and they're trapped. But you resolve that and it would go a long way. But I don't know. I don't think DT listens to the SMT from my opinion. Well, we'll see. We'll send a letter.
38:12I should mention that, you know, we did have Toll Brothers come out with earnings and Pulte Home not too long ago. We've got Lenar and KBH both on tap, I believe, next week. So just something to keep in mind with those home builders. That could be something to be watching. XLC, this, of course, has got, you know, we already looked at Alphabet quite a bit, but Meta is the other large component there. That's been trailing below its 50-day moving average line, even below its 200-day moving average line. Wild day today. That's got to be a bad price. It couldn't have traded. Yeah, I'm like, that does seem really odd.
38:49Look at the interday. Whenever there's a bad price, look at the interday. I bet you'd never traded up there. Yep, you are absolutely correct. So the high price that was trading was$6.52 and change, it looks like. So if we go back to that daily, let's get where the$6.52 is. Under yesterday's high, right? Yeah, right around there. So yeah, that's not nearly as wild. So this is still below the 50-day moving average line, still below the 200-day moving average line. But XLC— I look at that as a positive because it was in such a weak position, the meta, where I think Dave Hatman was talking about it the other day as a potential short.
39:34And I saw what he was seeing there, like stuck underneath the 200 day and everything. And it gives institutions a reason to just sell that down. But the fact that it wasn't selling off more than the market today, I wouldn't buy this at all. but from a general market standpoint, you're looking at things like this and saying, okay, well, if everything is broken, then it's a problem. Pull up Apple, for example, was another mega cap that just sat there and wasn't doing anything. There wasn't any selling going on. So when you're trying to put the context of how bad was a day, like today was so bad in some areas, you wanna look at everything and get a sense for, were they selling everything or were they rotating?
40:23Okay, wrapping up. Now we're getting into kind of our things that were, you know, flat to up. We have XLRE, which is the real estate ETF. This is still below its 50-day and 200-day moving average line, but, you know, down just slightly. IYT, this is the transportation average, something that, again, we've been talking about quite a bit, but it's like, oh, you know, you've got, The jets in there, the rails, the rails haven't been looking good. Even in like the truckers, you have J.B. Hunt, which has been on a tear as opposed to ODFL, which is, you know, just gotten back above its 200-day moving average line.
41:03So a very mixed bag there. But I do have a position in this myself. And, yeah, it certainly looks interesting. I'm going to go ahead and just pull. MSC, you know, it was one that I was looking at earlier today in the train of the rail. And it's like, yeah, like that's solid looking action. I mean, I don't know that I'd ever get excited about a railroad unless I was looking at a model book stock from the 1880s or something. Or it's Christmas time. Maybe you've got the model train going around. Oh, yeah. Yeah, I used to do that with the kids. Lots of fun. But again, this is just another part in the theme of there's money is flowing to things other than just AI.
41:47Yeah. And another area, JETS, that's been very strong, broke out recently and has been continuing that move. XLB, the materials, so that has been looking strong, just kind of cleared an area of resistance and held above that 45 level. XBI, I do have a position here. This is the Biotech ETF. This has just been trending so nicely above the 21-day moving average line. It came in a little bit earlier this week, but yeah, really nothing wrong happening here. XLF, we looked at the banks earlier. This is a little bit more broader with some Berkshire Hathaway as a big position and also your regional banks in there.
42:30XLV, which is our healthcare, that kind of made this little handle here. got some support and back above the 21-day moving average line. And that was up today. XLY, consumer discretionary. Again, this is probably, you know, it's 40 % between Amazon and Tesla. Amazon was down back below its 50-day moving average line. But as we mentioned earlier, Tesla had a very nice day. That was up 2.7%. So having quite the influence on XLY today. ITA, here's a aerospace defense ETF that has been doing very well lately. And that got above its 50 day moving average line yesterday and made some progress above it today was off its highs, but still looking decent.
43:16And this is another mixed bag, right? You've got, you know, your your legacy, you know, aerospace defense, like your LMT and Norfolk, Northrop, excuse me, NOC, you know, that, you know, those are still kind of right around their 50-day moving average lines. But then RTX was one that was looking kind of interesting. That bounced off its 50-day moving average line on the aerospace defense. And you've got a lot of other areas. GE had a really good day today. GE Aerospace back above its 50-day. GLD, the gold, that one was up today. So even though GDX wasn't up as strong, this finished nicely today.
43:59And then the winner for today was XLP, your staples, something that does tend to do well in more, I guess, defensive areas. But Walmart, notably, is one of the big members of that. And Walmart has been on a tear as retail has been doing a little bit better lately. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it.
44:34Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required, compatibility and availability varies 18+. Let's take a look at some stocks. And speaking of retail, Ulta Beauty, I do have a position in this. We did put this on Swing Trader today, so I bought it after our 30-minute time elapsed. And yeah, this had a nice, strong breakout on earnings. And what I liked about it was just how nicely it held those gains. It's right there at 600, a nice round number. What's your take, Mike? Well, I regrettably do not have a position in it because I meant to buy it after the 30-minute window, but I was too busy preparing for this show and looking for stocks that I didn't get a chance to buy it.
45:25But I think it looks totally set up. I love post-gap-up buys, meaning you have the earnings behind you. If you just look at the earnings, those are pathetic, 0 % down from 9%, which was yet a four before that. But the action of the chart of what it's doing is painting a different picture than what the fundamentals are right now. So this is not a A caliber stock. It's a B or C caliber stock. But on a day when everything is getting killed and it's acting like this, that's a stock that you wanna be buying in my opinion. And certainly if it takes out the high from yesterday, I'll probably just be buying this on Monday unless it falls apart or something just because I just didn't get a chance to buy it after we added it.
46:18But I really like that gap up holding in tightly. This is a textbook where if it breaks above Thursday's high, this should then take out the highs from earlier in the week and then be in an uptrend. And if not, it is back away from it with your ultimate low being the low from the gap up day, and then you got to back out of it. I mean, if it took out today's low, I'd probably back out of it if I bought it today. But, you know, I think it's very interesting. The RS line looks great. With all the talk about AI, maybe something flying under the radar is fertilizer, industrial and feed products. here's nutrient in the chemicals agriculture.
47:04But look at how this has just kind of cleared this area of resistance, you know, right around 62, where it hit its head a few times and, you know, very, very convincingly cleared that today. So what's your take, Mike? Yeah, I mean, the real buy point would have been yesterday or even the day before that, when it had the upside reversal around the 21 day. It was hard to buy it there because, it was in this base that's kind of sloppy, but I really liked the action yesterday getting over as recent highs and then today building on that. And we would have put it on swing trader, but the natural stop for it would have been yesterday's low.
47:46And that was just down too far percentage wise for us. We like to keep them around three, four percent if we can as a stop. and that was just too far away. But let's go to the weekly to get a take there. This is, I really like this setup because it's been doing nothing. And you've got to think in the mind space of a big mutual fund, if they're been up to their eyeballs in AI and they're already starting to back away from it and they've got all this capital, well, this is the type of thing that you'd want to rotate into because the risk that you have, at least from a chart standpoint, is more like the low of this base.
48:26How deep is this base we have? This is about 19%. Yeah, so in the scheme of things, when you've got certain stocks down half of that in a day, rotating into this with something makes sense. Let's go to the monthly on it. When these trend, go to CF, because it is a similar stock that has a longer history, and look back to that 06, 07 timeframe, go ahead and do the best fit so everyone can see the move. Because you think, oh, fertilizer stock, what is that going to do? That was a massive move, 06, 07, all the way up there. And it kept going up into 08, even as other things weren't working. So what's good about this is kind of like the home builders, when they move, they can move counter to what the normal market is doing.
49:17So it's in that uncorrelated asset category. as uncorrelated as things get. But you look at it on a monthly and just go, okay, over the last three, four years, the RS line is straight down. So it's been a total dog, total laggard, but it does look, it looks interesting and probably a space that I want to get a little exposure to. I'm going to switch that back to standard before I forget and before I get yelled at because we know what that does to Mike. Here's TKO. So, of course, you know, big in the entertainment media, UFC, WWE, and looks like a breakout today. Another one with an upside reversal just a couple days ago, right there at the 21-day moving average line.
50:12And it could have been bought there, could have been bought yesterday, and it could have been bought today. It just depends on your style or it could have been bought on that upside reversal added to yesterday, added to today. This is the type of action you like to see. And it's frankly on my radar because Nicholas, your son, was, you know, was into it at one point. But he's kind of like me. He kind of goes through phases of stuff. So he's moved on from it. But let's go. I'm wondering what we're going to do with the like thousand dollars of action figures and, you know, and cages and wrestling.
50:46we have so much stuff you know what are we gonna do with all this grandfarenthood for you um as well go to the monthly on this one to just get the context of what you're dealing with so this one has this you take a step back it's like wow this is really huge uptrend but it has some wiggles and wobbles in there that don't allow you to just sit and hold it forever. But when it starts trending, it's trending, you know, really nicely. And all of last year and this year, it's really in a nice channel on a monthly. So it has that going for it. Let's go to the daily. And again, to just kind of get that sense, it's not that far out of there.
51:27If I was buying it here, I would expect, you know, I'd probably put my stop, part of my stop at today's low, the rest of it at yesterday's low, and some of it underneath 200, because those big round numbers, as we learned from Jesse Livermore back in the day, that they are important levels to get above and hold above. So this tells us that there are some uncorrelated assets out there that are, you know, you look at this and you look at what the NASDAQ did today, and it doesn't, There's no there's no obvious connection there. There's always a connection, but there's no obvious connection with this one.
52:07And that's the type of things that I would be looking for. And frankly, just wish I would have bought it today. It was just too busy. Well, I'm going to stop my sharing and turn the controls over to you, Mike. You know, just so folks know, this is where we kind of go into some of the charts that Mike uses as his gauges between the Webby RSI, standing for his real simple indicator, not something that's as as relevant right now because of how we've been going back and forth around the 21 day moving ever sign. But let's go ahead and start with the weekly chart and take it away, Mike. Yeah. So this is our time where we look at the weekly candles.
52:44We do the, you know, what Bob Weir told us long ago, take a step back and kind of look at the context of things to, you know, because we always tend to get so worked up and looking at intraday charts and daily charts. that you want to look at the context and say, has anything materially changed? On a weekly candle basis, just looking at that alone, is this a good candle? No, but in the scheme of things, it's a small body, meaning the pink part, that's just telling you that you opened higher than you closed and then you traded outside of it. Those are your wicks. So this is just a run of the mill negative candle.
53:25It stayed above last week's low. So you don't want to read too much into this either negatively or positively. And what we're trying to do is as we go through all of these charts, if this is your first few times going through these with us, is we're trying to we're just looking at each one in isolation, forgetting about what we were seeing with the other ones and just letting it tell us a picture. and it's kind of just like this mosaic that we're putting the pieces together to see where is the money flowing into and where is it flowing out of. This one is a bit worse, right? Because your body is slightly bigger than the body of last week, which is a negative because it's a negative candle, meaning that it closed lower than it opened.
54:10It closed down here and it opened up here. But not terrible in that we still closed above last week's open. So it's a negative, but not terrible. We'll look at IWM. Wow. In isolation, this doesn't look that good because that top wick is so large versus the bottom wick as well as the body. but in contrast to what we were seeing on a relative basis to the S &P and the NASDAQ, it closed higher than it opened and it hit a fresh high for the week. So it's a little bit mixed and on a relative basis is a clear winner. So let's move on to the next charts. These are regression lines and this is just the old regression line from way back when that it broke down from.
55:06So we're not going to focus on that. We're going to go with our newer ones that we had put in. And these were the dates, our anchor points of August 1st. And then we went out 50 days from there. And that happened to be October 10th, which was here. Those are their anchor points. And we don't need to get in the nitty gritty of this other than to say all of these are broken. And like Bob told us, everything is broken. And by broken, it really broke on this day here on November 17th, because on the 13th, you had a serious break of your lower line. You give it a day or two to bounce back up through there, just like over here.
55:51You gave it a day or two to bounce back up through it, and it did. But then by this day, you've got to throw it out and say that this channel or that regression line or that line of best fit, however you want to phrase it, is no longer in play. It's history. So now what we're doing is waiting for our next one. So we'll use this low here. And once we get enough days in there, closer to 50 days, we'll put a new regression on there to see what type of angle we are getting. And it doesn't always trend. Well, let's see what the NASDAQ looks like. Same thing here. Everything's broken on that one. Let's take a look at the IWM.
56:35Well, this is broken, but at least trying to get back up into that space. But still, you can't use that regression anymore because it's ancient history. And we'll use this area to start our new one. We just need more time. Now we'll go over to our 50 % retracements. And there's a lot of different ways that you can do this. I'm choosing to do it from the high from the 29th of October in our low that we hit here in November. And what we're wanting is for this to be healthy is to stay in the northern hemisphere, meaning staying above the 670-28. Living up in this area, that's a positive. Living down here, obviously a negative.
57:23Let's look at the NASDAQ. Certainly not as good as SPY, but it's living in this area. I don't know that I got a chance to do the IWM. Oh, yeah. I was keeping it the same as what I had before from the October 10th low to the high that it hit a couple days after that. And you can change this all around. But no matter how you slice it, you're in a new high ground. So that is where the money is flowing. Let's look at our next one. These are our lines of importance. and so this first one here, that would be the top of October 10th and that's a 673.95 and I really want us to stay above that. That coincides with your 50-day moving average, which is your red line and a break of that is really gonna change the character and a break meaning really not just trading below it, but a close below it.
58:22That would be problematic. then you can put a million other lines in underneath that. We'll deal with that when the time comes. But this is the low from the 24th and this is the low from the 21st. But there are a bunch in there that you could put. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. Same thing here, the top from October 10th. We're pretty much right there. We undercut it slightly today, but closed above it. So we're still holding that. Then the next level would be really kind of the low from the 10th. But I marked in here the low from the 21st. So you don't want to see a break of that. Flip side, where is the money flowing to IWM?
59:06So again, we have all these little ways we're looking at to see where the money is flowing. It's still into the IWM area. We want it to stay above the October 15th high, the October 27th high here. And it looks like it's doing that. And, you know, it could come all the way into really you wouldn't want it to go underneath the 50 day, which then you'd look at some lines around there. That would be kind of the high of the 19th. It's somewhere in that ballpark. Next one to go over to. This is my Fib Moving Average one that I've used for a long time. And I just recently started sharing it. And it gives you a sense of another way of looking, are we trending or not?
59:55And so I just have a bunch of moving averages on here. The shortest one is a three-day moving average. And on down to, you know, I forget what this one, how far out, 233. And so these are all just Fibonacci levels. You can just Google that and get those like 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, things like that. And place them in there because the distance between them, once you understand how fibs work, it's perfect for a task like this to see, are they all above each other? And that's what you want to see, like over in this trending area where the short term, the three was above the five, the five was above the eight and so on.
1:00:41And once you start rolling over, you're going to start seeing the three go through the five, then the five go through the eight and so on. So it's a technique I don't see people really talking about, but I like to use it and throw it in and test it out and see how it works for you. Let's look at the NASA composite. it again starting to curl over where we're starting to see the three get through you know the five and the eight on its way down to the 13 day let's take a look at the IWM this one stacked all nicely where they're all you can see this over here it's fanned out nicely and that's what that's a sign of a really healthy area let's take a look at RSP I hadn't looked at that yet same thing there and so So it's telling you your average stock is still healthy, which is a reason why I'm not super bearish right now.
1:01:38Let's take a look at SPY with Allie's favorite one. And she will be back next year. Can't wait to have her back. But happy that she's getting time with her new baby and all and her husband and family. So this came down and tested. The only thing we have on there, the 21-day exponential. and it was a successful test at this point. That's very important to us. Let's take a look at the composite. Not so successful. It closed through it like it wasn't even there. So that is certainly a negative sign. IWM, the low is well above it. Same thing with RSP. So that gave us a lot of the same info. Sometimes it gives you confusing info.
1:02:25This was the same type of info that the NASDAQ was your weakest. And your IWM was your strongest, followed by the RSP. I'm going to switch over. I just have a few more charts. I'm trying to be fast. How am I doing there, Justin? Hey, so far so good. Okay. So here is SPY using the Webby RSI, the really simple indicator that I built. And all it's measuring is your low versus your 21-day expressed in ATR's average true ranges. That's this little blue histogram here. What is all this telling you? Well, you can't even see what it's telling you because there's no line there because we touched the 21 day.
1:03:04We want to see this is very simple. It can be very complicated, but you can look at it from a very simple level. You're in a healthy market that's trending when you've got a wall of blue. We had a wall of blue here. It was a small wall. You get a hopped over that kind of like a little baby wall. But over here, back in July, that was a big wall, right? That was keeping people out and keeping the bears away. That's what you want to see. That's when you're pressing on the gas. This, you know, where you got a wall, you don't have a wall, you got a wall, don't have a wall, not what you want. That's a sign of a choppy market.
1:03:42And that's what we've been dealing with. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. Same thing there. This little baby wall didn't even get up to one ATR. and now we no longer have a WebE RSI showing up there because we went through the 21 day. But let's take a look at IWM, a little bit of a different picture here. We're building this wall right now and it's very healthy above one, but not so hot where it's getting extended. But really, this is a healthy area and this is the type of blue wall that you wanna see. Let's take a look at RSP. Same thing there. So again, another reason to lean on the constructive side, at least for non-AI.
1:04:29Now we're going to do our final one, my daughter's favorite, which is the Bob Marley off high. This is just measuring how far off your highs are you in terms of ATRs. And look at this. You've got, you know, it came down into the yellow area, which is four ATRs. excuse me, but it was able to bounce back. And we're still near new highs. So when you just look at this, there's really nothing to be worried about this in isolation. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. Same thing here, not too bad. You would be concerned once it started getting really kind of in the three and a half ATRs off its high, which it happened back here on October 10th and then happened back there on August 1st.
1:05:20So once we get into that area with this particular thing, we would be concerned. Let's take a look at the IWM. That's up near highs there. And we'll take a look at the RSP and the same thing there. So those are all the charts. I made up a lot of time. I didn't babble as much as I typically do. Yeah, well, and I think it also helped that for a lot of those charts, again, we're kind of in not as bad Not as some might think, again, based on those Bob Marley charts, but we certainly don't have those walls that you mentioned, you know, of real strength. So a little bit of a mixed message, I suppose.
1:05:59And it is a mixed market. So that makes sense. Well, thank you for all the commentary there, Mike. Any final thoughts? You know, what I would focus, tell people to focus on besides the obvious or what I think is obvious. So for screening for this weekend, I would look at things that held up better than the averages this week, but from a closing range standpoint. So in market surge, you have the ability to screen on a closing range for the daily as well as for the weekly. So go in there and put a closing range is just where you close within the bar. 100 would be close at the peak. Zero would be at the bottom.
1:06:4050 would be in the middle. So I would do some screens for things that, two separate screens, ones that it's got to be above its 50 and above its 200-day moving average. It's got to be above$10 in a decent amount of liquidity, like$25 million volume. That's your base case for all screens. Then I would say any stocks that had a closing range today, even if they were down, closing range 75 % or higher. and then do the same thing on a weekly basis, maybe even 60 % or higher or 75 % or higher. Merge those into one list and play through them with what was up the most for today. Get a sense of, you could also put sectors in there as a sort and look at all the sectors first, like all the stocks in the auto sectors and the insurance sectors and the chip sectors all together so you get a sense for what, you know, where the money was flowing into.
1:07:41And that's what the screen is for. Because we know where it was coming out of. It was anything AI related at all was getting killed today. So we don't know how that's going to plan. I don't know. I mean, I've got guesses of what would be normal or natural, but it's the news flow. You know, it's just like with the hood we were talking about. You don't know what the news was going to hit. or Broadcom. Broadcom could have been up 10 % on different news. So you just have to look at what's normal and natural. We didn't talk about the Fed this week. I will just say, I think Powell did an excellent job this week.
1:08:17My interpretation of what he said, I've been very harsh on in the past. So this is, I'm not one who's always nice about Powell, but I think he did a good job kind of setting us up, setting the market up for us just pausing for a while. And I think the market needs to kind of come to grips with that. That was the message that I was getting is that, hey, they did a bunch of cutting. Now they kind of have to wait and see a bit. And I think that's logical. There's going to be, you know, a new Fed next year. So we've got, you know, you don't want to do too much in front of that. So I think if the data starts coming out in some funky ways, then they'll have to adjust.
1:08:58But I think right now the base case is they do nothing. So you have that kind of worry off the table. And, you know, I think we're running out of time. So next week I'll talk about the year end thing that I think folks should do getting prepared for the calendar change because that is kind of a big deal. Well, I can't hear you, but I think you were saying that I'm your favorite person and that I'm also called a saint. Was that what you said? We'll look forward to next week as you do the year end wrap up. Of course, it's not going to be the actual year end, but I think I think you're going to have a day off in there and then it's going to be the new year before we know it.
1:09:37So, again, thanks a lot, Mike, and have a great weekend. OK, that's going to wrap it up for us this week. Thank you so much for watching. Don't forget, we're going to have a jam packed session for you next week. Even though the holidays are coming, we've got a lot of information for you, starting with our IBD Live program every morning that starts 10 minutes before the open and goes about 90 minutes or more a lot of times. Going through the trades and what's working, what's not live and while the market is open. So you can kind of follow along with us. And then, of course, we'll have the SMT on Monday after the close.
1:10:16So hope you join us for that. And we will see you all next week. Take care, everybody.
1:10:35We'll see you next time.
1:10:49But so is our gear. Level up your summer at Columbia.com to spend more time outside and less time slathering on aloe lotion. You're welcome. Columbia. Engineered for whatever.
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Justin Nielsen and Mike Webster walk through Friday’s market action and discuss key stocks to watch in Stock Market Today.
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