Nasdaq Rallies Despite Chip Selling; Astera Labs, Liquidia, Invesco In Focus

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1:10Ken Shreve:Hello, everyone. It's Alyssa Corman, Ken Shreve here with a look at the stock market today for Wednesday, July 15th. It was an interesting day with some divergences, particularly between the NASDAQ composite and the NASDAQ 100. We will get into all that and more. Ken, What do you have for us today? Yeah, we saw a decent gain for the NASDAQ composite, Ali, but was it masking some weakness like it has done in the past? I think so. We'll talk about what happened in the market today, but saw some biotech strength again today. So let's talk about Liquida, LQDA. I don't think we've talked about that one on stock market today.

1:55If so, it's been a while. So talk about Liquidia. Also want to talk about Astera Labs, A-L-A-B. It's been a while since we talked about that one as well. And then Invesco, IVZ in the investment management group had a good earnings report from BlackRock. So I wanted to revisit that group.

2:17Ken Shreve:Yeah, a lot of notable strength in the financial sector today. So that's a great one to highlight. Let's first take a look at the major indexes. Here's the NASDAQ composite finishing up 0.6 % on the day. This was the strongest gain for the major indexes. Meanwhile, the S &P 500 finishing up 0.4%, the Dow up 0.3 % on the day, and the Russell 2000 up about 0.4%. It did finish off highs, so a little bit of a boost there right at the 21-day line after a pullback. We'll see if it can continue to bounce. Meanwhile, you had the NASDAQ 100 down on the day, but off lows here, down three-tenths of a percent.

3:07Ken Shreve:So with the NASDAQ composite up six-tenths of a percent, the team was talking about, okay, underneath the hood here, what was really going on? You would think that the Magnificent 7 strength would give the cues a bit of a boost, but you do have a lot of the other AI names. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it.

3:46Ken Shreve:Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required. Compatibility and availability varies 18+. Non-Mag7 AI stocks that took hard hits today, at least intraday. Meanwhile, you had the financial sector outperformance, which is not represented in the NASDAQ 100. Your thoughts, Ken, on some of these cross currents underneath the surface? Well, I think, yeah, the story was MAGS, the magnificent seven stocks had a great day today. I think it was NVIDIA and Tesla kind of watched from the sidelines. So it was really a magnificent five rally, a magnificent five rally today.

4:30It was Apple and Google that were the two best gainers today among the magnificent seven. But Amazon had a good day as well. But it was really the five magnificent seven that did very well. Amazon, noteworthy move. It gapped above its 50-day moving average. So large-cap tech did particularly well. It was ironic, though, because when the NASDAQ composite – NASDAQ composite actually had a pretty good close today. It was closed up near its high, six-tenths of a percent gain. We're kind of in the summer doldrums here, so we're really not seeing a whole lot of push and volume as the NASDAQ has been rallying here.

5:24But we're really up close to these highs over the past two weeks of trading here. So the NASDAQ is really not far from breaking out over these highs from the past couple of weeks here. Now, if you look at the VanEck semiconductor, SMH, I mean, there was broad-based weakness in semiconductor stocks again. And these were the big leaders in 2025, your chip stocks. And SMH did close off lows. It was down as much as 4%. It was down a little more than 4 % today. It closed down, what, 1.6 % or so. closed in the bottom half of its range and still below its 50-day moving average. But, you know, when you saw the composite rally off lows and even the SMH rally off lows, you look inside the NASDAQ 100, there was still a lot of, you know, big-time damage, not only among your, you know, memory and storage stocks, but among your big chip leaders, You know, still a lot of selling, a lot of stocks still down 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%.

6:39So even though you did see the NASDAQ come off lows, especially, well, the NASDAQ 100 and the NASDAQ composite, not many of your big leaders, those hoping, you know, for Sandisk and Micron to come furiously off lows, you really did not get that rally in some of the names maybe that people were hoping to come back. So Micron still kind of stuck near Lowe's. Maybe some of your big ship equipment leaders like KLA. That one kind of held at the 50-day line. Coolick and Sofa. Check out AMAT. Yeah, I mean, that one's still above the 50-day. So I'll tell you, this is a really tricky market. ASML, you know, before the open, we got some good news from ASML.

7:32They raised their full year. This episode is brought to you by Google. The spirit of innovation is deeply ingrained in America, and Google is helping Americans innovate in ways both big and small. The U.S. Department of Transportation is empowering staff with Google AI tools to rapidly synthesize research and streamline contracting, directly strengthening the safety and reliability of our nation's transit systems. This is a new era of American innovation. Learn more at g.co slash American Innovation. Revenue guidance, that stock was up, you know, three or four percent in the pre-market. That actually, you know, managed to hold a pretty good game.

8:12So you have ASML still, that's actually a rare bright spot right now because that actually closed up near its high. But overall, still saw a lot of damage in tech. And SMH is still not that far below its 50-day moving average. So still looking at the tech space overall is a bit challenged here. You know, looking at the SMH on the weekly chart, you know, this is not obviously a violent break of the 10-week line. It's still kind of sitting right there, not too far off its high. So we'll see how this all, you know, shapes up here. But I think when you look inside the NASDAQ 100 and at the, you know, the percentage of decliners, there's some damage, you know, definitely some damage in the NASDAQ 100 in the chip sector and in a lot of your former leaders that was a little bit concerning at this point.

9:11But we did look at some former chip leaders that are still fighting a good fight and holding above their 10-week lines, but still plenty of other former leaders that are below the 10-week lines and look like they're ready to form bases here. But have new leaders stepping up in the financials and biotech. So, you know, some leadership that looks like it's ready to step in here. We'll see if it's enough to, you know, save the market and keep this uptrend going.

9:39Ken Shreve:Exactly. Just seeing the money rotating but not leaving the market. Here's a look at XLF, which you mentioned. So what is this, a five-day winning streak now and a pretty nice uptrend? Yeah, we've had financial exposure for a little while with KRE, the regional bank ETF, but we decided to, you know, KRE's been pretty good. We've had that for a little while. We increased that position, but we decided to take a little nibble of XLF and increase our financial exposure. That's still kind of holding in a buy zone after a recent breakout. We did have one of the top holdings, or at least in the top 10 holding of XLF is Morgan Stanley.

10:23And that was another earnings report this morning that was really exceptional. You look at their second quarter results along the bottom here, their earnings up 62 percent, the top line up 27 percent. So we knew the second quarter results among the money centers. Goldman Sachs had a great report yesterday. You know, the top line, bottom line growth, equity trading revenue, investment banking, you know, the results here are, you know, very, very strong. So, you know, we'll see a lot of good results in the financial sector and, you know, XLF extended gains today. So we'll see if the financial leadership can continue, but certainly seeing a lot of it, you know, right now.

11:06And I saw more of it, more of it today for sure.

11:11Ken Shreve:Absolutely. And so back to the index level, here's a look at the S &P 500, also on the verge of topping its high from a couple of days ago, but really close to prior all-time highs, Ken, just above that 7 ,600 level. So this looks quite strong. And something that Mike Webster, our senior market strategist, has been pointing out is seeing how many days in a row that you have with not only a close above your 21 day, but then your lows above the 21 day line as well. So we have a good streak of that now, Ken. So this is looking quite solid here. Again, to that point of, hey, maybe tech by and large coming under a little bit of pressure after a huge move off the lows in that March-April timeframe, but a lot of other areas of leadership that look quite compelling.

12:08Yeah, no doubt. I mean, the S &P 500 made that initial, you know, the test of the 50-day when it hit that low of 72.94. It kind of firmed up at the 50-day moving average. And then, you know, it really just started showing good support, you know, from that point. So the S &P 500 was the first index that was really showing strength. But I have to tell you, Ali, just even looking at the NASDAQ, I mean, I remember, you know, Webby saying, listen, the S &P 500 is really acting well here. But, you know, the NASDAQ, all of a sudden, you know, we show Webby a chart of the NASDAQ at the close today. I'd be pretty impressed with that close for the NASDAQ today because all of a sudden the NASDAQ is not really looking all that different from the S &P 500 right now.

12:53So I think the bulls have at least, you know, listen, the bulls are certainly paying attention to the weakness in the former market leaders. There's no there's reasons to be concerned about that. But we have other leadership coming into, you know, focus in here. That's a that's a good sign. I think a lot of people are having problems seeing the NASDAQ making meaningful progress here without chip stocks and without memory stocks. Like what's going to what's going to be fueling the NASDAQ from here without these two key sectors? But, you know, we'll have to we'll have to see. But the NASDAQ, you know, not looking too bad here.

13:32S &P 500 obviously still looking quite strong here.

13:39Ken Shreve:Okay, thanks. Quick assessment of blue chips and small caps. Here is the Dow. Steady uptrend. Yeah, Dow Jones looking very, very strong as well. Of course, you've got nice financial representation in the Dow with J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs. and nice blue chip earnings in that index and small caps, you know, fighting a good fight here as well. Just clinging right to the short-term moving averages here that are basically converged. And they're still showing a lot of relative strength as well here. So kind of a tricky market. You know, we're dealing with, you know, an elevated distribution day count in the NASDAQ and the S &P 500.

14:27That's not a deal breaker in and of itself. We've seen elevated distribution day counts in the past during market uptrends. And we've seen market uptrends work when we've had elevated distribution day counts. So just because you have a high distribution day count doesn't mean a market uptrend can't keep going, especially if there are stocks out there that are still working and breakouts that are still working and stocks holding support. So you want to pay attention to heavy and high distribution day counts like we have now. But, you know, I think the index is still holding around support levels is a positive sign.

15:08So we'll continue to monitor the distribution that we're seeing in the market, but also pay attention to, you know, good, good, bullish days like like today, where we get a close near highs like the like the NASDAQ. And again, looking at really good action in the NYSE indexes like we're seeing in the Dow and the S &P 500. Mm-hmm.

15:30Ken Shreve:Okay. Well, because we are seeing some chip stocks take a breather, you know, that doesn't necessarily mean that there won't be buying opportunities down the road, right? So maybe pullbacks could turn into buyable bounces or at the very least the beginnings of some new base is forming. So case in point, we're seeing that potential here for Astera Labs, a lab, Ken. Yeah, I was looking through our sort of our SMT archive. I was surprised that Astera has been a long time since Astera has been covered, but this has been really a longtime leader in the Fabulous group. So it's a chip designer and they compete a lot with Credo, C-R-D-O, in the connectivity market in the Fabulous group.

16:21So they are big in AI data centers, connectivity solutions and data centers. So not only do they compete with CRDO, but they also compete with some extent to Marvell, M-R-V-L, to a smaller extent, Rambus, R-M-B-S. But ALAB is a bit of an anomaly in the chip group at this point because it's still kind of holding on to its 50-day moving average here, and it closed off lows, and it's still holding support. Great breakout recently over the 200 level, and just like how it's holding support here. The fundamentals are quite exceptional at A-Lab. This is a big company,$62 billion market cap, very liquid.

17:08It's got outstanding fund ownership, and you look at the annual earnings, I mean, really explosive, big, big estimates for 2026 and 27. The top line growth has been impressive. So in as much as Credo is growing like gangbusters, Alab is growing right along with Credo. So just very, very similar companies, both in terms of their growth trajectory and their price performance. So right now, Estera is, you can see, down sharply for the week. So anytime we see a stock come down and test its 10-week moving average, hopefully by the end of this week, we're not sure where the NASDAQ is going to close this week, of course, but we'd like to see Estera kind of come off lows for the week and eventually see a nice test of the 10-week moving average.

18:06And then that would basically entail a close off lows. We'd like to see a close in the midpoint or halfway or in the upper half of the range. If it closes in the bottom half, it's not a deal breaker. But, you know, anytime a stock comes down and tests the 10-week line, you'd like to see buyers come in and offer some support. So we'll see if it can get a close off lows by the end of the week. But great breakout here. And, you know, a first test and bounce off the 10-week line would normally be a good buy area. And we'll see if Estera can hold support here. I would call this a test that is still going on right now because it's kind of at its weekly low here.

18:50But on the daily chart, again, today it kind of tested that 50-day line and closed off lows today. So decent test going on at the 50 day. We'll see by the end of the week if it can make a make a solid test of that 10 week line.

19:05Ken Shreve:Yeah, we'd love to see a bounce. There could be a key week because, you know, we don't have a ton of trading history for a Sarah lab. It's still a pretty young stock, but it has this sort of, I don't know, boom bust might be a little dramatic, but it can go on some great runs. And then when it breaks the 10-week decisively in the past, you know, that has led to quite a bit of time off for the stock. Of course, that did coincide with market corrections, too. So the market environment is probably going to have a lot to do with whether it can bounce here. Does it form a base or does it take some time off?

19:50Ken Shreve:But, yeah, the story here and the fundamentals definitely very compelling, Ken. And holding up, like you said, a lot better than a number of other names in the space. Yeah, big increases in fund ownership over the past year. Over the past couple of quarters, fund ownership has flattened out a little bit. But you can see some funds in the IBD fund index have started to take positions here, including Contra Fund, which we're big fans of. Will Danoff over at Contra Fund. He's been managing that fund forever. Great track record and, you know, really nice fund sponsorship at Astera as well. Okay. Next on our list, we've been covering the strength in biotech names.

20:41Ken Shreve:Here's a look at XBI reversing off of the 21-day line today after a pullback. And this is in the context of a really nice uptrend here. So taking a look at a name in the profitable biotech group, Liquidia LQDA, a really fantastic performance in recent months, Ken. Yes, indeed. And great, great support. Kind of a harsh drop when biotechs were weak earlier in the week on Monday. Monday. I think it was kind of sort of broad-based selling in biotechs on Monday and didn't take long for Liquidia to go back above the 21-day line on Tuesday. Extended gains a little bit today. So seeing some support at the 21-day line.

21:31On the weekly chart, I just wanted to talk about Liquidia because the weekly chart, this is just looking like a great test of the 10-week line here. You can see how the different perspectives, the daily and the weekly chart give you. This is really a first test of the 10-week line for Liquidio. So we say stock is buyable when it comes down and touches and tests the 10-week line. So Liquidio is a great company, very, very profitable. It just turned profitable. You can see it was losing money all the way through 2025. It's going to turn its first profit this year. They do inhaled therapies for pulmonary, cardiopulmonary diseases.

22:20Main disease is pulmonary arterial hypertension. So it's basically high blood pressure in the lungs. But they do inhaled therapies and it's just kind of a very niche profitable market for the company. You can see the sales growth has really ramped up and the profitability is there. Fund sponsorship is light, but it is picking up the pace. Liquidia is a mid-cap company, very liquid. And you can see the stock has been trending very, very well. And that's because of the profitability and the top line growth. And just the company has executed very, very well. So just a great track record here and good management.

23:10And, you know, stock breaks out, it rallies, tends to find support, and it is trending very, very well, again, amid bright growth prospects. So great company. And I've been following it for a while. I've never owned it myself, but I'm just impressed with the fundamentals and technicals here and showing great action again at the 10-week moving average, getting good support.

23:40I lost your audio, Allie.

23:43Ken Shreve:All right. Really bullish there. Thank you, Ken. So taking a closer look at the daily, for those who have been watching this one, how do you get into something like this? How do you initiate a trade? Are you able to get something off of the 21-day here, or do you want to see it form more of a base? Well, I think we've seen these big stock market leaders. Again, the breakout for Liquidia, you can see the breakout was over that$46.67 level, but then it just came down and started finding support at the 21-day like we've seen these big market leaders do. So I've known people that are starting to buy these big leaders off of the 21-day line.

24:26So I think the 21-day line for a big leader that's breaking out of a base and coming down, some of these leaders are just not coming down to their 50 days during market uptrends. And they're coming down to short-term support levels and finding support. If you're not buying at the 50-day line, again, coming down to the 10-week moving average, Sometimes, you know, a pullback to the 50-day line is not going to happen on the daily chart. But, you know, the fact that it touched the 10-week line on the weekly chart, you know, again, I think the fact that it pulled back to the 21-day on the daily but touched the 10-week line on the weekly chart, I think it's, you know, still in a buy zone.

25:09So either it's off the 21-day line on the daily or let's see, how far is it above the 10-week line right now on the weekly? Let's check it out.

25:16Ken Shreve:you know 11.6 yeah it's probably a little extended from the 10-week line here so liquidity is just one of these one of these stocks where you want to pick it up off the 21 day line it's probably okay just because it's been been finding support there in the past and then you can use a stop you know below you know one of the one of the recent one of the recent lows but you know buying off the 21 day line is going to be a little more aggressive entry so if you're a little more risk averse. It may not be an entry for more risk averse traders, but it has been a pretty good support level for a lot of these big leaders that we've seen pretty consistently.