Nasdaq Win Streak Hits 10 Sessions; Nvidia, Google, Albemarle In Focus

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0:25Ed Carson:good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today for tuesday april 14th it's alissa quorum here and the nasdaq extending its win streak to 10 sessions what a rally we've had and joining me now to discuss the action and a couple of stocks is my colleague ed carson ed What do you have for us today? Yeah, boy, it's a lot more fun now than it was a few weeks ago. But I want to take a look at NVIDIA, Google, and Albemarle. All right, let's take a look at those stocks. But first, let's take a look at the major indexes. Here's the NASDAQ composite, a solid gain on the day, almost 2%. Meanwhile, the S &P 500 up 1.1 % on the day.

1:09Ed Carson:Look how close we are to all-time highs. That's pretty incredible. The Dow up three quarters of a percent on the session and the Russell 2000 small cap index up about 1.3 percent on the day. Potentially a closing high here, Ed, looks like it to me, eyeballing it. But a lot of strength and momentum in the market right now. Yeah, a lot of strength. I mean, there's still optimism, like more talk about maybe Iran talks will resume again. And, yeah, we're not at highs. We were close. And we've essentially regained, at least on the NASDAQ, S &P, Russell, we've regained all the losses from the Iran war.

1:49So we're already back above that. So really impressive. This is why we talk about getting into a rally, you know, when you get that signal, not the day one, but when you get that follow through day. And, you know, because there's been several days when people could have gradually but steadily built up exposure. And depending on where you started, you could be pretty heavily exposed at this point as opposed to waiting now. Like if you wait, I mean, there's reasons to worry. I mean, something, the talks could break down. We get all sorts of things, but that's always the way it is with market rallies.

2:21And, you know, and so if you wait until everything is sealed, we've got a peace deal, everything is wonderful, a lot of, well, the market is going to be pretty extended. All the winners will be out. I mean, a lot of them already extended. So, you know, if you want to be, it's actually in some ways conservative to get in early because, you know, because if you're jumping in late and or trying to chase stocks is more dangerous. Yes. In some way. So really strong action. And it is possible we'll have, you know, on one of these that we could have a pullback, but that would almost be bullish in some way or at least constructive, see some handles or other things.

2:55So wouldn't be the worst thing. But, yeah, really, really big turnaround the last week and a half, two weeks.

3:03Ed Carson:Yeah, so that gap up that we had in the market just a couple of sessions ago, marked a follow-through day by the book for the S &P 500 and the NASDAQ in spirit, because we do look at volume as a component there in addition to the price gain. when we have a rally attempt off lows at day four or later of the rally attempt is when we look for that follow-through day signal. And then something else that is bullish, Ed, are follow-ups to the follow-through, right? Subsequent follow-through days. So if you are seeing more price gains in that 1 % plus range following the follow-through day, that's also something worth noting and something that we're seeing now.

3:50Yeah, definitely. And I think especially we had gotten above the 50-day line, but you didn't know. It's like if we had fallen back, it's like, you know, and this market has been volatile. So a big gain by itself wasn't that shocking. But now this feels like this is clearly something different. And maybe most of all, we have a lot of stocks have been acting well. Some of them were, you know, that sometimes you get a rally in that the market just isn't really prepared. There aren't really stocks in position, but there were a lot of stocks position. There have been. There still are. But so a lot of signs of a real lot of strength just across the board by, you know, this is basically really what you want to see from a rally.

4:30Really impressive so far.

4:32Ed Carson:Yeah, it really is. And Ed, for me, this is reminding me more and more of a couple of years ago in the fourth quarter of 2023. So let me see if I can pull up. Let's go here. We can see. Yeah, it's a little bit different in how we came down to the 200-day and spent less time beneath there. But at least in the early going here, just the rally off of the lows with how many up days in a row, a couple of gap ups in there, retaking the 50-day line and seeing a lot of subsequent follow-through days, reminding me of that period a little bit. It's definitely, definitely reminiscent. It'd be great if we could follow through and have several months of advance.

5:21Ed Carson:Exactly. Let's make it happen. So a very promising start to this rally here for sure. And looking at those leading stocks, let's see if they can continue to hold up. And if we see more stocks that are looking actionable joining the party, another great signal there as well. All right. Moving on. Let's take a quick look. We'll just get your thoughts, Ed, on the Dow and the Russell while we're here. Let's start with the Dow. I mean, look, there's been more of a tech-heavy rally to this nature. And so, and the techs that the Dow has, I mean, NVIDIA aside, but a lot of them haven't been doing that great either.

6:04So, but it's still moving. I mean, look, we were in a situation, even the laggards are rising. This is still positive. If this was the best index, we'd still be pretty happy. You know, we've rebounded. We've come above the 50-day line. It's not as much power as the NASDAQ. And obviously, the relative strength has been weaker here. But, you know, again, we're seeing everything sort of move up. And that's nice.

6:26Ed Carson:Yeah. No, that's such a good point. We want all boats rowing together. So even the laggard areas will take it. let's now go to IWM. Yeah, as I say, I'm like, we'll see if that's a closing high or not. You know, we'll see. It was awfully close. Yeah, just broad strength. And I just one more point about the market. This again, this is one you want to be aggressive because like after all these months of slog and people like, I'll fight for it, I'll try to get into it. And I'll, you know, some you might have made gains, but a lot of people like myself, we lost money and it's okay to do a little but you're doing some test buys and some of them don't work.

7:05But this is why. This is when, this is the time period when you want to be invested, when you want, this is where you can make your money. That's sideways markets, you don't make money. I mean, for the most part. And down markets, you don't. This is where you can make money. And, you know, even if you didn't pick the best stocks over the last week, they're probably up. You know, I mean, to be honest, that really helps. You know, that makes it a lot easier when sort of everything goes up. But yes, a lot of this is acting very well.

7:35Ed Carson:And there are risks still out there to be aware of, but that's why we have risk management rules, right? Just because there are risks doesn't mean that you just stay on the sidelines. So measured approach, like you have been saying, Ed, adding just a little bit more exposure each day once you get the follow through day. And you can be pretty heavily invested after just a couple of days. Yeah, and I know the last exposure, we were at 60 to 80 percent. I don't know if there'll be any other decisions, but you go 10, 20 percent a day. It's amazing how that doesn't take very long at all. All right.

8:13Ed Carson:Well, let's talk about oil and where things stand there. Here's USO. So if the market now can go up when oil is up, I guess it really helps on a day when oil is down. What are you seeing here? Of course, if you're talking about longer term levels, we're still pretty high up there. But give us the latest said on that landscape. Yeah, we're still very high relative to where we were before the war. But boy, it's come down a bit. And you're right. People were making this point that oil was sort of hitting new highs and the market was still rallying. I mean, which is really impressive. I mean, there's different things going on between short term oil trades and long term bets on what AI stocks will do.

8:56But still, but you're right. So, you know, for this to continue, we need to get some kind of oil deal because at some point, because the shortages in real life are sort of building elsewhere. So you do need to get a deal down the road. But this is really encouraging. And you can say like, oh, there's this reason to worry, this reason that. But the fact is that prices are coming down, stocks are going up, and you don't want to fight that. Mm-hmm.

9:24Ed Carson:Okay. Well, one notable area of strength as of late and even in the downtrend that we had, Ed, chip stocks. So resisted a lot of the weakness. I mean, it didn't avoid damage, right? But the first to snap back seems like to new highs and seeing further strength here today with SMH up another 2%. So this week, we'll go to the weekly chart here, already up 3.5 % on top of last week's gain of over 11%. And, you know, we're only two days into the week here, but a lot of strength in the chips, which I know is something that you really like to see, that chip participation in a market rally. I mean, obviously, it's just so dominant with AI chips, but even before then, chips are in everything.

10:17So it sort of feels like you need that. And it's so important just in their relevance. But yeah, I bought a, took a position in SMH on the follow through day. I just said, all right, I'm doing that. That seems like a relative, you know, even if it fell back, I know it could fall back a lot, but it wouldn't be one of those things where, oh, it falls 20 % in a day, just like some high flying stock. And so I've taken, that was one of the first things I bought. And so happy with that. Definitely other things that have moved more. But yeah, this is doing really, you know, the chips are showing leadership.

10:50They held up relatively well, held well above the 200-day line, was chomping at the bit to get above the 50-day line before the follow-through day, where so many other things were well below for quite a while. So yeah, this coming on is great.

11:08Ed Carson:We'll continue to monitor the leadership out of that sector. Let's now go to biotech. This is another area at new highs of 2.8 % on the day. Cleared a downtrend a number of sessions ago as the market was turning. And now clearly in new high territory, Ed. Yeah. And so definitely want to be looking around. There are areas. There's some banks. There's biotechs. There's, you know, travel names. You know, and with biotechs, sometimes, you know, there are some in positions, some are not. But this is often they're all over the place. And there's always the risk that you never know when some kind of piece of news will come out that could be amazing or horrible for an individual name.

11:50So this is a good way to play it. So definitely be looking around. Don't just say buy chips. Don't just buy, you know, AI or tech titans, say.

12:00Ed Carson:Exactly. All right. We're going to be taking a look at some tech titans here in a moment. But you mentioned banks. So let's just quickly look at KBE and KRE. Ed, we have earnings season underway, and the banks always kick that off. Yeah, and they're doing okay. They're doing okay, and some are looking better than others for sure. But just wanted to bring this up. Again, this is coming up, and this looks a lot better than the XLF ETF that we often bring up. A lot of things in that, like the credit cards and Berkshire, they're terrible. But the banks, whether they're big banks or the regional banks, they're doing pretty well right now.

12:42The regional banks looks essentially the same. And you can sort of see if it gets above that 70 level, that's sort of where the prior breakout, which didn't really work out. So, you know, this is a nice resistance area if there's sort of a proto handle forming here right at that spot. So just a positive sign about the economy, too, I'd say, where the regional banks are doing well. as lending and some other things are sort of acting well. Great point there. Shifts in geopolitics, tariffs and regulation are rewriting the global playbook for international business. Every Friday on the Dow Jones Risk Journal podcast, our expert journalists and analysts take you inside the news, breaking down the hidden angles on the week's biggest developments, from sanctions and foreign policy shifts to cyber threats and supply chain disruptions.

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13:38Ed Carson:All right. Well, let's take a look at a chart that is reminiscent of the NASDAQ composite chart here. And that's NVIDIA. Of course, it has a big weighting in the NASDAQ. Here's a look at the chart up 3.8 % on the day. Nvidia, clearing this largely the area around 393, 395 that it had been trading in the December to February timeframe. And it's now back above that earnings move lower that it had. So I think that's also great to see here, Ed, as this mega cap name continues its recovery and something that Jim Ropel, who counts our founder, William O 'Neill, as one of his mentors in his career, he has said that whether you buy it or not for your portfolio, NVIDIA is one of the stocks that you can use as a proxy for market health.

14:44Ed Carson:This is a stock that you want to see doing well. Yeah, this doesn't have to be the best stock, but you want it to be doing well. It's hard not to – it's just such a huge company that if it's not doing well, that also suggests a lot of other companies, maybe its customers aren't doing well. Yeah, breaking the trend line, breaking a lot of this short-term resistance, there's just sort of this 197 area. You could have bought it here today. It'd be great if it formed a handle here. I mean, but that would be, again, why if the market paused, that wouldn't be the worst thing. The only things to note is that ASML reports tomorrow morning and then Taiwan Semi reports the day after that.

15:24And Taiwan Semi makes the NVIDIA chip. So what they have to say about maybe capacity and other things will be important that could move NVIDIA. You know, this has gone up 10 days. So I could understand if an investor said, you know, I'd like it to pause. It's gone up a lot of days. But you certainly could have bought it today. but if you haven't bought it yet that might be something you do as you wait for it see if it pauses around here around 200 this whole area and you know forms a handle but yeah again we're looking at things that aren't that didn't run out initially there were stocks that broke out a week ago so it's just not as powerful as but some of those are extended i mean let's be honest uh and this one is not.

16:07And it's hard to go wrong with NVIDIA with its earnings growth has still been, actually it's picked up the last couple of quarters. That's just really hard. It's sort of like in the middle of a marathon where that runner says, I'm going to pick it up a notch. It's like, really? I mean, that's sort of what NVIDIA has been doing. And it's been consolidating for several months. You can almost argue it hasn't done a whole lot, you know, for that time. So, and while its earnings line has continued to climb. So you could definitely imagine this going on another strong run in the coming months.

16:44Ed Carson:Yeah, a great one to feature there. Let's take a look at a mega cap pier and that is Google Parent Alphabet working on the right side of a base. It was able to retake the 10-week line last week. So far for this week, up almost 5 % and clearing a trend line area or proto handle. I like you were saying that, Ed. A little bit of a pause on the right side of the base here, Ed. So arguably actionable as well today. Yeah, probably could have done early entry. It's, you know, don't want to probably go too much further just because, you know, it's getting extended from there, the 50-day line acting well.

17:27This is probably, you know, I mean, it's not supposed to have great results here, but still I think the general feeling is that this one is doing well with monetizing AI. So really, this will be a very important report, including for NVIDIA, what they have to say about a whole lot of things. And this is probably the healthiest looking, healthy looking mega cap. Amazon, NVIDIA aren't looking bad. Now, all of a sudden, some of these magnificent seven or the top 10 names are starting to look good again, which is just really huge. You know, you can't get the NASDAQ to all new highs if these folks aren't participating to some extent.

18:06Right, right. And, yeah, this has made a nice comeback. And, you know, I never went below the 200-day line, held up better than most. I wish there were more volume, you know, in the last, in this past week. I mean, there's been a couple of days, but it hasn't been particularly high. So that is one thing that I wish we had.

18:28Ed Carson:And you mentioned the upcoming earnings report. That is in 15 calendar days, it looks like, towards the end of the month. And moving on, let's go to Albemarle. So shifting gears here to the chemical sector. Cleared an early entry in Monday's session, followed up on the gain. today, still within range, it looks like, for a buy point here, Ed, and earnings here coming up in 22 days. Yeah, and you could argue that today it closed above the short-term high, so that could be another way you could view the early entry just from the last, because I think the handle was like just a couple of points too low to be proper.

19:09Either way, and it's not too far from the 50-day line, there's a lot of names in this space that are doing well, so there's There's definitely others to be looked at. Lithium prices are surging. So you're going to see earnings come up. It takes a little while because they have contracts, but those prices have been picking up for a while. So the contract, sometimes it takes a while for the profits to show up, but everybody knows they're coming. And so the stock runs ahead of that. The stock will run with lithium prices more than earnings per se because there's such a delay on the upside or the downside.

19:42But there seems to be more. There's demand for EVs. There's demand for battery storage. It certainly helps that these higher oil prices are providing another fuel to EV sales, apparently, around the world. But there just seems to be an underlying push again for lithium that's been going on. It's paused here. It's went on a nice run. So it's already done that. Again, the earnings are just turning around. But it's actionable right now.

20:09Ed Carson:It is. let's take a look at where it is versus that 50-day line using the track price tool. It's about 10.7 % above the 50-day. And then taking a look at the 10-week, which is very similar, also a red line on this chart, also roughly 10.9%. So just something to keep in mind when sizing your position and managing risk depending on where you are setting your stop. So something that we look at with all trades. So I thought I'd highlight that one. That's a good point. Okay, well, thanks, Ed, for all of your good points today. Good stuff. We appreciate it. All right. See you next time. And thanks, everyone, for tuning in.

20:55Ed Carson:That is it from us for today. But it's Tuesday. It's the, I believe, is it the second Tuesday of the month? So ST, so we've got Swing Trader status update for you, our monthly show featuring Mike Webster and Justin Nielsen live on this very YouTube channel for those of you watching live on YouTube. So you can check that out today at 5 p.m. Eastern. And then, of course, just like a lot of our other content, you can watch it on demand, whether that's on Investors.com or YouTube. So you have that to look forward to. I think it'll be a good show looking at the market strength through a swing trading lens.

21:39Ed Carson:And of course, those guys, two of the minds behind IBD's market school rules, taking a look at the technicals on the index level to get more exposure, portfolio exposure in the market. So with this recent market turn, I think it'll be really interesting to hear what they have to say. And spoiler alert, I feel like Webby's pretty bullish right now. So I'm sure he'll break down why and what they're looking at. So make sure to check that out. And then we've got the podcast coming up with Justin on Wednesday. And our leaderboard scorecard on Thursday. So a great week to stay up to date on all things IBD.

22:21Ed Carson:So we'll see you throughout the week, including IBD Live tomorrow morning. investors.com slash IABD live for all the details. We'll see you there. And then we'll see you right back here tomorrow after the close.

22:47Hey, this is Tell Us Demos.