On The Cusp Of Earnings Onslaught And Fed; Archer Daniels, BWX Tech, Ericsson In Focus

30:02So this has been looking strong. A lot of, you know, the general industrial group has been been up on our 197 industry groups in terms of outperformance. So that's been interesting to see. SMH, you know, it hasn't been all bad for tech. You showed how ugly IGV was, but SMH has really been trending very nicely. And that is despite NVIDIA, which is about an 18.5 % position in SMH, kind of weighing that ETF down. It had a good day today with a 1.5 % move in NVIDIA, but SMH down a little bit, but not broken by any stretch. XLV, the healthcare ETF, this has also been trending very nicely above its 21-day moving average line.

30:48OIH, I do have a position here that had a reversal today, you know, stretched out into new high ground, but then finished at the bottom of its range, down about a half a percent. RSP, the equal weighted S &P 500, we didn't talk too much about this. We've been talking a lot about it on this show and IBD Live. This was kind of a mid-range close, right? It was down half a percent, didn't finish at the lows so not too bad in terms of that finish and still holding well above that 21 day moving average line a little bit of room there XLU the utilities that got turned away last week at its 50 day moving average line and is back below its 21 day line but potential support right there at the 200 day line so we'll see about that a lot of talk in the YouTube comments for ITA, or I should say aerospace and defense.

31:43This has pulled back. I do have a position in this ETF. This has pulled back a little bit. We did have, speaking of earnings, we did have earnings come out on GE Aerospace. That took a little bit of a hit. So probably was bringing ITA down to a degree, but still above the 21 day moving average line, certainly not broken. NLR, nuclear space. Can you just stop a second? That ITA, that's what you want to see. Like, you know, if you're newer to charts, like this is kind of classic healthy action where you break out of your cup with handle, go, or really a cup without handle that then kind of had a higher handle there.

32:26So it was a cup without handle that kind of failed, found support at the 21 day, had a really nice move from there. And it is gently coming in, And even though there is a lot of mixed action in the group, a lot of them still look really good. And so this is the ideal thing. So when you see something that's abnormal, that's what you want to stay away from. If you're in this one, I would just be looking to add to it. I unfortunately sold mine to buy something else, but I'm looking to get back into it. And especially if it can come down to the 21 day and have an upside reversal, I'll be all over it.

33:00Mm hmm. The nuclear space and LR uranium and nuclear. This is back above 150. And again, another one that's been trending very nicely above its 21 day moving average line, that 50 day line now turning up after having a little bit of a downtrend over the last month and a half. So yeah, it's nice to see that kind of turning up. And we do have that one on swing trader and I am trading it and my father's trading it and And so let's all hope that it goes well. Yeah. We already talked about SPY, which was basically flat for the day. IBIT, which is the Bitcoin ETF, this is trying another time to cross above that 50-day moving average line.

33:45I did start a position here as it crossed above the 50-day line, small position, and had to back away from it. It just didn't work. So I'm not going to sit around and see how bad things get. but now it's uh it's tried again got turned away at the 50-day line so we'll see how that plays out on the tech side xlk the the tech sector spider um that's again looks very very similar to the nasdaq composite it's just been going back and forth around that to that 50-day moving average line and 21-day moving average line uh just can't really make up its mind one way or the other um the qqqe uh we decided to go with qqqe not qqew because someone uh pointed out how qqew is a select index so we're going with this now um this was down about two tenths of a percent xlre um that was up about a quarter percent and still below its 200 day moving average line but trying to get a little bit of a bounce at the 50-day moving average line so again remember xlre does have a lot more exposure to REITs and the like as opposed to itb so you saw itb was looking kind of ugly today whereas this had an upside reversal the queues that was up about three-tenths of a percent again very similar to what we saw with the nasdaq xly which remember this has got a lot of amazon and tesla those two are about a 50 weight and so some of the strength in tesla lately getting above its 50-day moving average line probably helping xly out if you take a look at rspd which is the equal weighted version of that it's it's a fairly similar picture so it's not like it's just amazon and tesla doing the heavy lifting although i should say amazon you know did have a nice day today uh it was looking you know really strong here couldn't hold it um but giving another try uh we'll see how that pans out um let's see and then rounding things out we've got xle the energy uh that was up over half a percent but well off of its highs uh finishing kind of at the low of the range but still up for the day xme the metal is still very strong uh this has just been trending so nicely above the 21 and 50 day moving average lines uh it's got coal in there it's got copper gold silver you name it it's it's it's in there uh steel metal you know aluminum um xlc which has a larger position in meta and google or i should say alphabet that's back above its 50 day moving average line and back above its 21 day moving average line so looking a little bit better there.

36:30The Staples XLP, really strong move over the last couple of weeks, kind of consolidated that gain and had another strong move today. That's kind of a game changer, that one. And I think Walmart looks good, but the Costco that we talked about a couple of weeks ago is looking really interesting because it looked terrible before. Turned, I think it was the same store as sales numbers that turned there. And I remember my dad calling it like the day before it moved. He was like, I think this is going to turn up. And it did what I'm looking at, because this is one of my favorite companies, not stocks, but favorite companies is getting back above that thousand.

37:13And this looks a lot like that XLP. And I'm sure it's a big part of it. And just moving up, let's go to the monthly on this, just to get a sense of what we're dealing with. So over time, it has these nice, long, long moves, long and steady moves in this downtrend that it's breaking on a monthly. So even though this is not normally where we would be buying a stock, and we can go to the weekly too, I think that this is an area to kind of diversify your account. I would buy a stock underneath the 200-day. And so now that it's up here I'm looking at a way to get in into this one and and other ones like it because it seems like a lot of things have been left for dead the money's flowing back in there as some money is flowing out of the Microsoft's and Apple's and Metas of the world.

38:06Let's take a look at software as you mentioned before a nice bounce today up eight tenths of a percent so the maybe it's gone from looking terrible to just terrible um but we'll see if it can continue this move after uh as you mentioned it being oversold the materials were also very strong up nine tenths um really strong relative strength there lately fngs had a nice bounce that was up over one percent um again not not in a great position but getting support at the 200-day moving average line after uh getting kind of oversold itself and then some of the big winners of the day gold still up there gld up 1.37 um slv uh i see a lot of comments in the uh in the youtube uh comments about silver up another 6.6 percent just seems unstoppable gdx let's go back to the silver i still have my position here.

39:08Back in, I think it was October, there were some folks talking about how this area was going into a climax. And I think it was on IBD Live, I went over how it wasn't a climax, that it was way too early. I'm going to just go back, because again, it looks so scrunched right now. So let's go back to October. And yeah, that's certainly a powerful move. Yeah, it was powerful. Climactic. So that was a big deal. The Bill O 'Neill, the founder of IBD, would, you know, I would sit and study his personal model books all the time and he would write climax top and climax action. And there's a big difference.

39:50Climax top means the stock is done. This is climax action. And there is a huge difference. Climax action, where it's just getting parabolic, those can then pause and let, you know, people take their gains, let some shorts come in there, and then the shorts get squeezed. And those can be some of your biggest moves. And that's why I was going on, I think, I forget where it was, whether it was IBD Live or a different webinar. And I went back and it was showing how back in the day, silver had this huge, huge move and said it could go a lot further and longer than a lot of people think. And now go out from here like a month or two.

40:33so it's just worth studying history and then understanding charts doesn't make it easy but when you have climax action and then you form a base like this just remember there are a lot of people out there who are still short and they are going to really get squeezed and that can have a really huge move it's the same thing as a high tight flag a stock has moved up a huge amount in a short period of time, holds in tight, and then goes. And those can be your very, very best moves. Now let's go back to the current day. And this is where it's very tricky because we are in a climax run now. Go to the weekly for a second because it's always helpful.

41:18The weekly is on log. Whenever you're looking at a climax, you want to look it on in log, if at all possible. This is now in a climax. If you study climaxes, they can go a lot further than what you think. And so what I did today is I scaled out. I've been, my position size has been all over the place on this one. In hindsight, you know, I would have done it differently. We always would have. But I've had big positions, small positions, but I've been trading it the whole way up. And I reduced my position today just because as you're getting up here, you do want to lock some in along. way now if bill were here he would say when it is a climax top which is very hard to tell in real time you sell the whole thing i've studied them a lot and it's very hard in real time hindsight it's easy 2020 you can yes like it didn't go higher than there that was your climax top but if you go back and study them it's really tricky and so i would say you got to be willing to scale out and then if it go if it tightens up and does a little another little shelf i would go and study Qualcomm, we don't have to go there now, Qualcomm back in 99 and how that had moved up and had climax, like really a kind of a climax top and then went in sideways and then had another last move.

42:36And if you go back to, you know, over a hundred years ago and you look at Bethlehem Steel, which you can find in Bill's book in the front of it, you know, in the front of this book, there's a chart of it on a weekly and I would go and study that this weekend as well because it It looks like this still could have a lot further to go, but I just wanted to lock some in. Yeah, that totally makes sense. And again, one of the reasons why you want to do that is because as fast as they come up, you can lose so much in such a quick amount of time. Let's go back to the daily for a second, because I'll say one other thing on this one.

43:15And I do think folks should go back and study probably Taser, which is Axon from 2004 timeframe. Let's just go there for a second. I know we're off the rails, but you're going on vacation for a week, so you can stick around a little bit longer. So just go to, what was it? Oh, you want to go back? Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to go 2005. Yeah, there you go. And let's go to a weekly. I would go and study this one because that had climax action all along the way. And it was a climax top at the very top. But how did you know that? You knew that after the fact. Bill was asked at a workshop that weekend at the top, was it a climax top?

43:55And even he said, no, it wasn't a climax top. That tells you how hard it is in real time. Let's go to the daily around that top. So let's see. I'm going to go to the top. Anyone who's really interested in this on my YouTube channel, Webby 5150, I did a couple hours walking through Axon slash Taser. So if you're really interested, I would watch that this weekend if you're really bored. So the key here is the break of the 21 day, that green line. And it only did it a couple of times at that 4823 for just a day and then up here. And so really pay attention to where a stock or a commodity or ETF gets support historically.

44:46And then that becomes very important. For this one, it happened to be the 21-day. So when you're studying a climax, go and see where does it find support? Is it the 21-day, the 10-day, the 50-day, what have you? And I think the base case is starting with the 21-day. And you see something that looks abnormal. And that chart was broken. And you see that last little flag there, you know, for three or four days, not a traditional flag and breaks out from there. And then once that fails, once it comes back and closes under 100, you got to be out of that because that thing is probably done. And in fact, it was a 29 % drop in a single day there.

45:25That's why I was locking in some silver because you just never know. And when it's over, man, it's going to be ugly, really ugly, really fast. but I mean, the thing could go a lot further and do that with it, with this axon. I would suggest doing it over the weekend, whether you watch my thing or not do it yourself, just go play through that. Um, you can learn so much. I do that all the time. Like once a year, I'll go through and do it day by day through that. Sorry. I also mentioned that some folks were, uh, uh, you, you gave your, your handle. So for people that wanted to watch that, uh, Webby rambles on, Some people were surprised to see Webby 5150 in there.

46:05They didn't realize it was actually you. They thought someone just put that name in there. But yes, in the YouTube comments, the Webby 5150 is Mike multitasking as we go along. Yep, that's me. One last sector to go over is TAN. I do have a position here, the Invesco Solar ETF. This had a nice little breakout. We tried this a couple times. It had a breakout here that ended up just kind of pulling back, doing nothing. It seemed like it was starting to get going again, just kind of pulled back. It seemed like it was getting going again, just kind of pulled back. Each time getting support right there at the 21-day moving average line, but certainly more of a lift this last time.

46:44So, yeah. Yeah, I'm glad we have it on again. And I've got a position as well. But there are earnings on it next week. So you do in that area. Yeah, NXT is one of the ones that we're watching, and this one does have earnings next week. This is one of the stronger members. I keep on saying NextTracker because that's what it was called. Now it's NextBauer. I'm sorry, what were you saying? I was just saying I think that's the best one in the group. Balance your trading strategy by adding futures. CME Group helps you manage risk and capture opportunities in all market environments.

47:43Yeah, very good. Let's go ahead and take a look at some stocks. And we're going to start with not AMD. D, we're going to start with ADM, just mix it up a little bit. You know, you might be thinking, well, gosh, isn't this kind of boring? It's the food, grain and related, oil seed and feed industries. What is looking attractive to you about this one? Well, it's because it's in, it's relatively in position in this general space. And this space is getting hot as kind of like as anyone who knows Althea. So let's go to SQM, something I'm trading right now. And in this related space, and this is really more of your leader, whereas the other one is a laggard, because just by definition, this has already been going, but trying to look in this space and seeing what looks good.

48:40And we've been trading an ETF related on Swing Trader. And so I think this space is where you want to look for ideas. SQM, it's way out of position. You can't buy it here. Let's go back to the Archer. And just one thing that people should know about SQM. This is also, in addition, you know, I know it says, you know, specialty fertilizers, iodine. This is also the largest lithium producer. So it's important to kind of realize that that is also going on. You look at Albemarle, which is, you know, also into the lithium, but there's a lithium play here. SQM is the largest, you know, largest lithium producer.

49:26So that was probably a bad example for me to pick. I was just looking at my holding. So let's look at CF, which is more just on the floor, more just your fertilizer. Yeah. Which I also have a position in this. And again, it's SQM is involved in that, too. So it's almost like a perfect storm right now for SQM with both lithium and fertilizers kind of being on the on the hot list. There you go. Thank you. And so here is another one kind of that is obviously doesn't look as good as SQM because it doesn't have what you're talking about, the lithium aspect. but still money is flowing into here. Let's go to the weekly for a second.

50:07And it looks terrible on the weekly, but you're also, when the money is flowing out of the mega caps that have been doing so well for such a long time, you do want to be open-minded to ones like this, just like what we were talking about with the Costco earlier. So sorry about that, but that's why we're doing this weird stock that wouldn't be normal for us to talk about and and look uh we just had ntr on swing trader uh this this one is is looking you know very very strong um i still have a position in that one too yeah bungie which is one that uh you know uh i know chris gessel played a number of times i mean when that broke about above 100 it didn't look back and then uh you also had moo i love the a ticker symbol on that, and agribusiness, the Bannock agribusiness, this one looking very strong as well, so this one has also been on Swing Trader.

51:02But back to ADM. And trading the MU as well, and that's probably a good way for folks to trade this space, using an ETF, just since so many of them are out of position. But going back to this one, RS line is up and looking good, not at total highs, but it broke out and is holding up, had that nice little shakeout, Earnings are in 11 days, so you want to be careful. But this is more of just letting folks know, look in this space, spaces that you normally wouldn't look at. Just be open-minded to and do a lot of screening. Now, they don't meet the mold of the normal IBD method as far as because the earnings, because they're more turnaround situations.

51:42So in our model books, Bill would always say about a quarter of them were turnarounds. So this would be in that pile. That's a big topic. We can go to the next one because I know we've been going long. I'll be better, Justin. Okay. We'll revisit BWX technologies, BWXT involved in the nuclear space and power generation, but forming a nice little cup with handle here. So this is one that we have played in the recent past here. I think I did get out of my position, but I'm looking at reentering if this handles out. What say you, Mike? Yeah, I bought it back today. We tried it out of the cup without handle, both on Swing Trader and myself, and we had to exit it because it wasn't working out.

52:30But now it's kind of had what I would call a high handle where, you know, after it goes through a cup without handle and it forms a handle, I just refer to that as a high handle, which is not ideal, but it has a clear declining tops line there. If it can break above that, that's where I'll be adding to it, or actually I'll be selling it in my own account to add it to Swing Trader and then buying it back because that's how we have to do it. That's fine. But what's nice about it too is their earnings aren't for 31 days. So many stocks, we've got earnings next week and the week after. These are the types of ones you would prefer to go things that either the earnings are behind you or they're out quite a bit.

53:14And we can move to the next one if you want. And let's, yeah, this is one that hasn't been on my radar for a little bit. Ericsson, Swedish manufacturer of wireless and telecommunications. Of course, this was very big back in the days when Nokia from Finland was big. You had Ericsson from Sweden. And yeah, this had a very strong breakout on earnings. I'm going to go ahead and pull up the weekly chart here. And yeah, not a bad look after this consolidation. So when you get something like this that, I mean, the relative strength has been nothing to write home about, what makes you kind of say, oh, maybe it's time to start paying attention to this again?

53:58Earnings are behind you. That's the key. I was looking for stocks to talk about today and all the ones that I really wanted to talk about, they were just out of position. So I was trying to find something that was more in position and with earnings behind you. And so this is already there. And on top of that, it was a point that you had mentioned when we were talking about it earlier was that it's foreign related. And the foreign markets are where I do want to have exposure right now because they are so hot and you get that diversification and you've got the earnings behind you. Let's go to the monthly though, because I mean, this has been a dog for a lot of, you know, for a long, long, long, long time, like terrible.

54:42But look at this move back in the 90s, right? Back in the day, you know, and if we had Nokia on there, that we had an even bigger move. And Bill would do that. When we would look at stocks, he'd go like, has it ever had a big move? And if it had, he'd be like, even if it was decades ago, he would go, okay, it can do it again. but let's go to the weekly on this one. What's nice about this is that you've got this base here that sat on top of that other base. I know it's not a base on base because the move was up too much, but just it broke out of that base, had its 20 % move, a little bit more than that, and then formed this really tight action.

55:26And now you're getting this powerful breakout. And your expectation is that in short order, this is up to 12 bucks. Doesn't sound like a lot, but from a percentage standpoint, that would be a good move. So just again, what we wanted to do is just have things for you guys to, out of the ordinary, not just talk about the NVIDIAs of the world or what everyone else is talking about and just have a little diversification. And it's hard to pick stocks right now. I mean, it's hard to find stocks that don't have earnings in a few days that are in position. And so there you have it. You know what, since we have talked a little bit about international, I'm just going to mention that the column that I did this week was on VXUS.

56:14This is the Vanguard total international stock ETF. So it's minus the US. This has been doing you know pretty pretty nicely uh lately um and so yeah that was uh my column uh this week but uh to your point i mean uh you've got ewd which is and i am trading that one is as well as it being on swing trader the vx us i think that's a good way there are a lot of etfs that are similar so you can just i would really maybe just poke around for the one that look that has the lowest expense ratio and it's still got tight spreads and all but i think the vx us works yeah ben Guard is known for that, has a very low ATR.

56:55I sold my position because I was writing the column on it. So we can't own things that we write about. But yeah, that has a good look to it. But just a few other country ETFs. You know, you have Sweden here. Again, Erickson, probably a good part of that move, EWD. I'm just going to go ahead and give a nod to my father's homeland, Denmark, uh eden uh that you know is is up there we've got um uh epu the latin america has been very strong uh you know so this is peru colombia um you know that's been on a tear eww uh eww mexico ewz brazil um argentina or a broader ilf which is the latin america 40 um you've got ezu uh which is the Eurozone to get a little bit broader in Europe, EEM, which is emerging markets.

57:50So yeah, there's a lot of international plays that are worth looking at. So, you know, sometimes I keep a list of just international ETFs just to kind of be aware of some of those areas of strength. Poland was another one that kind of had caught my eye a while ago, but - I'm a quarter puller, so I'm always looking at that one. Did you pull up EWZ? I did, yes. Brazil. This seems like I'm seeing a lot of stocks in that area, and some of them are lower price, that look really good. And so I do think that the easier way to do it is just do it through the ETF. It's a little bit extended out of there, but I might have to chase it and get a little bit of a position.

58:34You can kind of get away with that a little bit more with ETFs. if you like, I don't want to say dollar cost average into it, but you buy a little bit and you know, give it a few days, buy a little bit more, always averaging up, never averaging down. Tim coming in with the assist again. Remember this is Miami Tim, not Arizona Tim. He pointed out EWZS. This is one that wasn't on my radar. Tim has put a few things on my radar. KBWB was one that Tim put on my radar actually about EWZS is the small cap Brazil. So another way to play that. I just jotted that down. Thanks, Tim. Yeah. So, okay. I'm going to stop the share and let you take over.

59:15Just to be transparent, I'm going to do a little multitasking here while you're talking. So don't throw too many things my way. What do you think about this chart? Yeah. Okay. Okay. All right. We were doing the Bob Weir. Rest in peace, Bob. Take a step back. and in just looking at the weekly candles. This is where we like to step back from the dailies and the interday charts and look at kind of the bigger picture to see is it telling us anything. And this was actually a very, very, very constructive candle for this week. Looks really good. Why do I say that? Because you undercut recent areas, as you can see here.

59:57You had a longer bottom wick. I'll just blow this up a little bit more. a longer bottom wick down here, meaning it traded down through there, and you have a positive bar, meaning you opened here and you closed here. I mean, that's as good as it really gets. Yes, if it would have closed up here, that would have been better, but that's a really good action. Even though we were looking at the dailies and weren't really a huge fan of that look, the weekly candle does look good. Now let's look at the NASDAQ. See how that's looking on a weekly. Hey, you know what? Last week, you know, wasn't looking so hot.

1:00:36This week, really, you know, much better action and very similar to what we saw on SPY. So that's a good look there. Let's contrast this with, unfortunately, what I'm trading, IWM, that's a terrible candle. It just is. You got to call it the way you see it, whether you're in it or not. Having that big of a wick, let's just blow that up. That means that you're going to trade it all the way up to here and then close back there. Yes, it's nice that the body is inside of last week's body. It is a positive body, meaning it closed higher than it opened and that our open was higher than last week and never traded down below there.

1:01:17But really this top candle, that top wick, that's really just poor action and not what you'd like to see. But sometimes like it did over here, this big, terrible-looking candle there with that really big top wick. And then the next week, it ended up working out. So we're going to go through a lot of charts here if this is your first time. And you're just not trying to take everything from one chart. You're trying to paint a little picture, a little mosaic, take a little bit from each one. So now we're going to look at... Oh, I did want to ask you, Justin, how many days has it been, trading days has it been since November 21st?

1:02:03I think 43, but I'll verify that for you. Okay. Sounds about right. So we'll stop this. This is the regression that I like to do. We'll stop it at 50 days. But this was very important action this week. We're starting this on the 21st and our end date is today. Once we get to 50 days, we will end up stopping. But this went down below our one standard deviation on here. That is not what you want to see. But when you see it, what you want is an immediate bounce back up here. and once you get through the green dash line, which is a 0.75 standard deviations away from this white line here, then your expectation is for it to get back up to that white line, which is your regression line, what I like to refer to as home base.

1:02:55Let's blow this up a little bit more. And 42 days. 42 days? I forgot the holiday. So yeah, 42. No worries. Thanks, man. So with this, it got support back at its 21st, one as well as the 0.75 standard deviations there. So your expectation with this is for it to move up to at least to the white line home base and actually surpass it and go up over here, just like it did here. And let's just, I'm just going to go back and show you what happened last time. This was the one that we had starting back on May 12th and we went out 50 days. So that was out to July 23rd. And then when this broke here on October 10th, you had to give it a few days.

1:03:43And the fact that it couldn't get back in here right away was telling you that that was breaking, that character was, or that trend was done. And it was done. Now let's go over to the NASDAQ. and on this one again using those same the same dates on here we had that same break through the bottom part but at least we got that bounce up and look this one already made it up to the white line to to home base which is what you would want it to do and again in a healthy market it'll go past it and get up here and then kind of pull back in now let's go over to the IWM before, when we were looking at things, it's like, oh man, you know, I'm not sure about, you know, how it closed, but it's just normal and natural, given that it just pulled back into it's the middle part of it, or the regression line, the white line, which I refer to as home base.

1:04:44So it just, it always wants to go there. It's when it gets to extremes away from it, it wants to mean revert. So if you hear people talking about a mean reversion trade, this is how I like to look at it. There's a million ways to look at it. So this still is healthy from that stance. But typically when you start going down, you never know how much further you're going to go. And we'll take that one day at a time. So now we're going to go over to our 50 % retracements to see how that is looking. And this can be done on interday charts, daily charts, weekly charts, monthly charts. It's an art, not a science of where you pick the different times, the different highs and lows.

1:05:29But I'm just going to walk you through one set on this one, using the highs from October and the low from November. We want to, for it to be healthy, given those two areas, that high and that low, you want to be in the northern hemisphere. So above the 670 and that's what we've been doing. We keep trying to poke up into new highs and then or higher than that October 29th high and then can't seem to get any traction there. But as long as it's up in this area you're it's much healthier. Living down here very problematic and of course that would be underneath the 50 and the 21 days which is a whole different topic.

1:06:14Same thing with the composite or a little bit different, I should say, with the composite, it never got into new highs up here, but it's still just in this range bound. And the range bound can last a lot longer than you want or think. And so until this really gets out of really above this area, which was the kind of the highest level that is traded in here, we're considering this just really range bound. Let's go over to the IWM. And with this, I'm using different dates because this has been leading. And originally I had some, um, some marks over here and here, excuse me. Uh,

1:06:59so with this one, we have the low from, uh, January 2nd and the high from yesterday. and we just want it to be above the 258. And I'm going to have to cough here, Justin, so you're going to have to handle it. Okay. So do you want to move on to the next chart? Were you kind of done with that one? Okay. I was able to get through the cough faster than I thought. So you can get back to your work. I'm sorry. I was like, you never know. I actually, I got my email out. I've been paying attention. I've been watching. Oh, you're listening to me? Why would you do that? All right. It happens every now and then.

1:07:35I don't make a habit of it. Yeah. So our next one is our levels chart. And I took off some that were on here and just been trying to clean this up and make it easier for folks. Of course, there's a green one up here that you can't really see if it got into new high ground. But now with this week, with a bad Tuesday that we had, that low becomes very important because the bulls ended up stepping up really the next day. but that low becomes important the 676 57 that that's the 50 day is more important to me but that's the next level that is very important and then you can go to any of your important lows like the low from december 17th let's look at the next one so here's the composite and um the same basic thing here the the lows from this week and then the lows here from december 17th look at iwm

1:08:34so this one you know you could put a lot of lines on here if you did you would also put the low from from tuesday on here but i wanted to keep it a little bit cleaner and this high from december 12th that is underneath your 21 days so that's another reason why i took the other one off because you know if you revisit the 21 day it should stop or if it's healthy it should stop around the 258.20.

1:09:06All right, let's go to the next one. Here is our Fibonacci moving averages. So this is just a bunch of moving averages using the Fibonacci sequence. That's something I like to do. I've been doing this for years. So the shortest one is a three-day on here. And I think the, let me see what this one a 233 um is the the longest one and what you want to do is you want them stacked where your three is above your five your five is above your eight your eight is above your 13 and so on and that is a nice trending market but you can see what we've had is this choppiness and we'll know that we're in a healthy environment in a trending environment when we get back to something like this where you have some daylight between your three and your five and between your five and your eight and so on.

1:10:00But I do like how for the long term, at least the way you see the long term one stacked, it does tell you that you're still in a long term uptrend. It's just that the shorter term or medium term has been a little bit trickier. Exactly. Such a good point. Thank you. We're going to miss you next week. You're going to have the phone in from Florence and be like, hey, Mike, I want to sit. I want to spend my vacation with you. I don't see that happening. Yeah. Just, just, just, just wait for the call. Just wait. I'll sit by the phone. So here is the composite and exactly what you think they're all over the place.

1:10:36And that's what it's felt like to trade in that, where you just can't get a trend. If you're a trend follower, you can't get a trade. Now, if you're a position trader, and you've just been sitting with things from way back when, well, man, nothing to worry about, because as you said, the long-term trend is still fine. Look at the IWM. This is what you want to see. Notice that you've got daylight between the three and the five, the five and the eight, and so on. And you still, even though you had a bad day today, that three is still above that five. So this is what you want to see, and they can last a lot longer than what you think.

1:11:10So that's why when you're in a position like this and you have one bad day, you want to try to give it a little bit of time. Next thing we're going to do is Ali's favorite one. And this is Ali is coming back on February 17th. We're very excited about that. And this is just your 21 day exponential. And what we focus on is, is your low above that or is your high underneath it? And this one, you've traded through it for three days. That's inconclusive. You really need that low to get above it and stay above it, as we always like to talk about on the show. Same thing with the NASDAQ, just all over the place.

1:11:50And this is our kryptonite when you can't get the average to stay above it. That is really the worst. It's a bear market. It's so much better for us. Now here, IWM, and that's why we've been gravitating here, is you can see it's been, even though it hasn't been above it the whole time, it's been trending above it, comes down and tests, breaks a little bit, trends above it. We might have another test. We will have to see. Let me switch over to our other charts. Let's see. Okay, so this is the Webby RSI, and this is one of my inventions. And it's very, very simple, and it's just measuring the distance from your low versus your 21-day.

1:12:35On this chart, that happens to be the green line on there, and it's measured in ATRs. So you want to see a wall of blue, which we have over here, or we go back in time, any of these other times where you have this wall of blue, that's a healthy trending market. When you see the orange on here, that is your highest stuck underneath the 21 day. And that is you're trending down. You want to stay away from those types of markets. But now we don't even have one on here. We had one little burnt orange on there, meaning our high was underneath it the other day. And now our low is not above it. So we have no Webby RSI, no positive value there on this one right now.

1:13:21Same thing with the NASDAQ. And that's been kind of the trend lately, right? You get a day, then nothing. Then you get some burnt orange, then nothing. And it just goes back and forth. Really, really choppy. And that's when we get hurt. And then IWM. Now, this is really important. You see this spike that we had yesterday and that got up to 2.7. And that's what you want to see. You have this one over here that got further, but it didn't end up working out. But seeing that power is what you want. Let's just take a look at RSP, see how that's hanging in there. this is your average stock this is the s &p the equal weight of the s &p and we still have a wall of blue there so that is really good for your average stock we will wrap things up with my daughter's favorite one and yes my daughter is going to be doing her first marathon shoot i should have asked her if i was allowed to say that so rewind edit we'll fix it in post We'll fix it.

1:14:26But I'm super proud. So anyways, and she just started running not too long ago, like six, seven months ago, and she's already going to be, she's a Webster. What can you say? This is our Bob Marley off high indicator, and it is telling you that we're still in a good place. It is currently just 1.39 ATRs off of our high. as long as you're in the green area, which is four ATRs, you're pretty much fine. But the ticket to the next level, you want to look at where does it typically get some support. And in here, if you were just kind of put a line through here that kind of aligned the best fit of the pullbacks, you're probably at around two or so.

1:15:13So it's a little bit, this week was a little bit more than what you'd like to see. And if it comes back again, maybe two and a half is where you'd want it to stop, but we will see what it does. Same thing here with the NASDAQ. This has been its nature. It got a lot worse there in November. And so this pullback is nowhere near as bad as that one. And what do we have? IWM. So the IWM, even though with today's sell-off in there, we're still up at 1.85 off the high. We'll wrap it up with RSP. And same thing there. That one is looking healthy. So this is our longest ever SMT. I'm going to catch it for this.

1:16:04But hey, I wanted to send you off just there you go well uh i appreciate it well thank you very much for the commentary mike uh you enjoy yourself with whoever uh has the reins next week in my absence and uh yeah thanks thanks again that's gonna wrap it up for us today don't forget to join us uh on ibd live in the mornings we're gonna have mark minervini on uh next next week so that's gonna be a fun time um we had brian shannon on going through the anchored vwap on our new market surge beta today So it was a good time with that guest today from Alpha Trends. And yeah, we always have someone coming on and really sharing their experience.

1:16:44David Ryan is on every Tuesday. So lots of stuff going on. Hope you join us for that. And don't forget to join us right back here on the Stock Market Today video after the close. We'll see you next time. Take care, everybody. Bye now.

1:17:05Thank you.

1:17:35legal standards. From first draft to final review, your work is grounded and ready. LexisNexis Protege Workflows. Greater certainty. Private. Secure. Authoritative legal AI.