Power Trend On The Ropes; Palantir, Snowflake, Toast In Focus

28:49Okay. Not exactly the same type of setup as what we have right now because you were dealing with the 21 day, but I did think it was a good example. Let's, again, you crashed through that 21 day. Let's just go out two months. And I will say one thing also about this one, being below the 200 day moving average line does kind of feel a little different, right? Yeah. And that was the case with our 2022 example as well. We were below the 200 day moving average line for that example in the power trend. Yeah, and you can go out just a couple months if you want. Okay.

29:37So this is why I wanted to show this one, because when you just look at the data, and this is the problem that I see a lot on Twitter and other analysts putting out, where they'll just say, okay, when this event happened, and they'll have look forward dates, and they'll just say, okay, well, look forward six months or a year or whatever, and where are you? And they say that about like the Hindenburg and all the different omens and things. And I just think it's really bad research because you wanna look at it and go, okay, when you get this signal, are you going to be able to withstand it or not?

30:12And I don't think anyone could withstand that move down. Can you point to the 925 date? Oh, where the 925 date is. Yeah, so that got so ugly that you are going to want to react on that. I mean, it just crashed through. Imagine still holding stock at the low of that bad day down there. I mean, you'd just be burying your head in the sand if you lived through that and you didn't at least reduce substantially. So again, you just wait for your signals. Get your load back above the 50-day, or get a close above the 50-day, get a close above the 21-day, your load above it and all that stuff. So you want to stay flexible, but looking out two months, it's an important thing, and that's why we put it on the spreadsheet, but you also need to look at them.

31:03You can't just look at the data. You've got to look at the actual examples. We're going to do one more because this one is spooky, and it's January 23rd. 23rd, 1984, Summer Olympics here in LA or there in LA.

31:25Went to see the closing ceremony with my father. That was so much fun. Oh, really? Yeah, I won the tickets through something. It was really cool. Okay, so January 23rd of 84, again, in a weird position because of the 200 day and everything, but it is the data set that we looked at. and look at how it, again, it cracked through the 21-day, it cracked through your 50-day. Now go out two months and see what ended up happening. And you always have to look at the bad examples too, not just the good ones. And look how bad that got. So if you're the type that just says, oh, you know, I'm just going to ride things out, you want to look at reality.

32:07The difference here, of course, 50 days underneath the 200-day, you're in a completely different, situation. So when you're looking at these examples this weekend or later today, make a note, is your 21 day above your 50 and your 50 above your 200? Those are going to be your best ones to look at because that's the environment that we're in. But it's also just good to know with power trends, you kind of just have this context of, wow, that got a lot worse in a short period of time. So the rules that we were saying is wait to get back above the 21 day, wait for the low to get above the 21 day and a number of days with your low above it would have saved you from this type of mess so hopefully you guys uh spend some time with that this week and i think you'll get a lot out of it yeah and as you said it's not just about oh are you higher two months later or lower two months later it's how did you get there right that's that's the most important part um i would also note that uh a lot of these that we're looking at here uh are i mean And like the 84, as bad as this looks on the daily chart, this is, you know, obviously an ugly downtrend.

33:17This was really part of a secular bull market that we really talk about, you know, we talk about one of the greatest bull markets ever from 1982 to 2000. And it's just a reminder that that didn't mean that you didn't have downtrends at all. You know, you had some of these, you know, major downtrends, 87 crash, all sorts of things along the way. It's just that overall you had this phenomenal move from 82 to 2000. But again, it wasn't always easy along the way. That's such an important point that you bring up, Justin, because people, the 82 to 2000 is the most powerful time in the history of the market.

34:00Yes, you had the, you know, like kind of 1924 to 1929, or you could go back even further. But really, it was such a small market back then compared to what we have here. So it was really growing the wealth of the country and helping the wealth around the world of what happened from 82 to 2000. But if you go day by day through that, you just, I mean, there are bear markets. There's terrible markets. And you pointed out the 87 crash, but there are also times where you just need to be out of the market for a long period of time. And that's just the reality of active trading. Now, if you don't want to be an active trader, then, you know, well, then don't watch this show.

34:45You know, just put dollar cost average into SPY and enjoy your life. There's nothing wrong with that because that's a lot easier, frankly. And many times you'll be doing a lot better doing that. Like it's it's been a challenge. You can still watch the show for the entertainment value. Right. Let's take a look at going to go on now. Right. Exactly. Well, yeah, we're going to start getting prediction markets on that. Let's talk a little bit about some of the stocks, because I think one of the things that really stuck out to me is how how interesting software has been. Um, software has just been, again, you had the, you know, I, I, I think of that Mark Twain, uh, quote, you know, my death has been greatly exaggerated, something that's attributed to Mark Twain.

35:31Um, and that was certainly the case as a lot of this anthropic news was coming out and basically saying that, um, oh yeah, basically, uh, software is no longer a thing. It's just going to all be replaced by AI. Now, of course, we've had some really strong gains in some of the software areas you mentioned. Cybersecurity earlier with CIBR. But here's Snow. I do have a position in this myself. This is something we also put on SwingTrader. Very different look from the market. Tell us about what is appealing to you. Yeah, and I bought it, too, after we put it on after a restrictive time frame. And so this is kind of a cookie cutter ad for me or a buy, a swing trading buy.

36:20If I was in it from a position trade out of that cup with handle, this would have been like a textbook buy, like you've got to do it. Bill would say the similar thing about the 50 day, you know, when you if you bought a stock out of the base and it's first pulled back into its 50 day or 10 week line. You know, the first two are kind of give me is that you've got to buy them. It doesn't mean it's going to work, but that's where you kind of reload or you add on to things. So it's the same thing with this is when you break out of a base and you have a decent run up, which this definitely did. And then you come back into your 21 day, especially if you have an upside reversal or an upside reversal outside day like we had, you give it a shot.

37:02Doesn't mean it's going to work. Like I was very scared to put this on because, man, things haven't been working out. But it was like, man, if you don't put this on, what are you doing? You've got to take the shot. And it doesn't mean the shot's going to work. It could be an air ball and all. But today's low becomes a line in the sand. And there were so many in this space that were looking like this, that like you could have bought like 10 stocks in this space today. And a couple of days ago, it was like, wow, these are going down to zero. It is what it felt like. So you just have to be flexible.

37:37and then you know and if it doesn't work out you you back away from it what's interesting is in software some of the ones that have been written off for dead are actually basing at the bottom like um crm is one of them let's take a look at that look at it on a weekly because this has been horrible like it looked like it was going to zero now it still might all stocks could go to zero but it it's finally you know basing out here and why i wanted to go on the weekly is so you could see that earnings line so at the same time that the the stock has been going like this because of the reasons that you you said that with this ai could put these people out of business they really could um but the earnings have still been there and it's kind of setting up so i don't think i'm going to trade crm because i don't like things with that much overhead uh typically but it could be good for the market as well as the sector if something like this goes and i think service now as well um pull that one up on a weekly that that one you know is having this bottoming base um in there i think this one looks better than the crm frankly um but the earnings are starting to roll a little bit already and the estimates are rolling and that's probably why it's down in this position.

38:55So I'm not saying to, let's go to the daily on this. I'm not saying to go and buy this because it's just not the way I normally like to buy, but at least it's set up and it gives you a clear expectation that, you know, kind of already broke out a couple of days ago out of this little cup with handle. I know my pattern rec is showing a cup without handle, but you could see that there was a little tiny handle there that broke out two days ago from and gave you a pivot. And it is back above its 200 day. So you look at stocks like this and just say, okay, you might want to put an alert on and just say, okay, is it above that day's low, around 120?

39:33And you do that on a bunch of things. And if you see them starting to hit, you know that, okay, this market, you know, that area is just going to take another leg down most likely. But if this can move up, that would be helpful for the indexes as well as just the sector to try to give it a little bit more of a, some tailwind, but we'll see. But the snow looks a thousand times better than these. But I just want to point that out. We can go to the next one. Well, kind of in a similar space, computer software enterprise and a little bit of this kind of bottoming action is Palantir. Now, of course, Palantir does have some of the defense bent to it as well, but it came up strongly on its last earnings report, right through that 200-day moving average line and is powering higher.

40:25So go ahead and give us your thoughts on this computer software enterprise name. Yeah, so I have a position in this. Oh, and I do have a position as well. Okay, and we did put it on SwingTrader and I've been trading it off and on in through here and we backed out of it with SwingTrader a couple days ago, basically just to want to get a better entry for it. And so we put that back on today because we got that better entry. this one's a squirrely one but go back to the weekly and this one i'd kind of look at differently than the other ones this one i kind of put as a potential position trade even though we're swing trading it because when you have a stock that's had a big move like that and kind of resets itself the odds are against it because uh chuck and i did a a study and then i separately uh redid the study to verify the data but basically when you have a model book stock which that was a model book stock its first run up there and when it tops which i did top it came down enough that you would have said that run was over that only god what i think it was like one in uh eight or something eight yeah one in eight come back to have another model book move now some of them would just move up but not have a model book move so the odds are stacked against you but this one looks like it has that potential because it kind of cleaned up enough people there was certainly this was a good short and and when shorts get squeezed you can have a big move to the upside and look at the the the sales down there at the bottom i mean that's just unbelievable the acceleration and those numbers there and the same thing with the earnings so there seemed to be a disconnect with it.

42:12And this to me looks like a$300 or$400 stock. Now, I don't know if I'll be in it for that. And I could get kicked out of it on Monday and five minutes into the open. But right now, this looks set up to have a big move higher. And I still think it's in my range right here. So we'll see how that one plays out. And then another one that has been kind of interesting toast. We've we played this a number of times as as it was in this uptrend here. And then it just couldn't seem to do anything right for a long time, despite, you know, I think you and I both have commented on how if you go out to eat, I mean, you see these things everywhere.

42:56Right. And, you know, most of the staff that use them does appreciate, like, you know, what what they're able to do, how easy it is sometimes to just, OK, now here's here's your stuff. Just leave it with you and you know you as the um as as the patron can you know kind of do a lot of this yourself um but uh this is in the finance uh credit card payment processors and another kind of bottoming base here as this is coming above its 200 day moving average line its 40 week moving average line with a nice little uh a nice little pause here so uh walk us through this one yeah so this is a bit unusual um we put it on swing trader today and i did buy it after that uh that time unusual because there's overhead in there and we normally don't like that type of look to it but because of the market environment and my overhead you're you're talking about overhead supply in the price you know uh not not like a financial term this is uh i wasn't talking about surfing either.

43:59You know, it's certainly, you know, maybe it's a double overhead, but, uh, um, anyway, with this, there's really not a base in sight, you know? And so it's moving up, it's moved up through its, uh, 200 day, the 50 day or the 10 week line is moving up through its 200 day or 40 week line now. And it's kind of in the vein of a three weeks type, but not really because it started moving this week. So the way I looked at it is if you don't buy it here, it's going to be too extended and you're going to have to wait. So to give it a shot, the exact reason why you said, Justin, is I like, I love Peter Lynch.

44:39It was one of the first books I read about the stock market was his first one. It was a one-up on Wall Street, I think. It was two of them. That one changed the way I suggest everyone go and get Peter Lynch's book, One-Up on Wall Street and read it very much like a Jim Cramer type of take on things, a Bill O 'Neill type of take on things of like invest in what you know and pay attention. I'm always paying attention and I'll ask servers, you know, what do you think of it? Now, Toast is not the only people that make this. They have competitors, but at first there was a lot of pushback. They're like, oh, I don't like this.

45:16And now instead of writing it down, I've got to do all this stuff. But once they learn it, it's just kind of like doing math by hand versus a calculator and then a calculator versus Excel. It's like, it takes a while to learn the skill, but once you have it, there's so much more you can do. And it's any restaurant, you can see that they just don't have enough employees. So anything that can speed up, make the existing employees more efficient, the better. So that's your backstory there. The fundamentals are there. You've got the acceleration and general acceleration. Well, not really acceleration, but you've got solid numbers there.

45:57Let's go over to the daily and see what to expect. So if it's for real, like it was taking out this marked high there, the 3636, and from here, it should move higher and should be at$40 in a short period of time if it's normal and natural. But if we close underneath today's low or certainly yesterday's low, then you've got to back away from it. It's just a swing trade, not something that, I mean, it could turn into a position trade, but it's not really a good entry. It's too short to be a flat base. It's not really a, it's too loose to be a shelf. It's just kind of a pause. So we'll see how that one plays out.

46:41Very good. If it wasn't for the fundamental story on there, like, I wouldn't be trading this one. It was just, and that happens a lot. Like, if I was just going through charts and I didn't, and there wasn't toast on there and I hadn't already talked to a million servers about it and paid attention to it and thought about it, I wouldn't trade this chart, you know? It's just all so random. I'm Laura Thurow with Baird Private Wealth Management. You've been doing all the right things. Saving, investing, building toward your goals. Healthcare can be a major expense today and an even greater one over time.

47:18Tools like long-term care insurance or a smart health savings account strategy can help protect what you've worked so hard to build. Learn more at BairdWealth.com slash WSJGuidebook. mm-hmm um webby i'm gonna do a quick little um sector analysis and then and then we'll get to your charts but there there certainly has been some interesting again these rumblings underneath the surface of that steady rsp um and one of the areas that has come on strong uh ibit let's talk about bitcoin and the strong move off the bottom that we're seeing here as this got above its 200 Dayline. I was hoping you weren't going to bring this up because I own it.

48:04And it's so embarrassing that I own it. But I bought it three days ago when it was moving up there because it had been kind of ridden off. I'm not, I'm agnostic on the whole crypto thing. You've got our good friend, Jim Ropel, who is - But you trade on the chart. Yeah. He drank the Kool-Aid. He mixes the Kool-Aid. He shares the Kool-Aid. I just use the chart. He breaks through the wall. He says, oh yeah. Yeah. Yes. Yes. Good. Good one. So I was going, you know what? There is the movement into gold and in everything. And typically the lots of times you'll see the correlation with, with that and, and, um, and this instrument and how tight it was.

48:47And then it going up there like that. I just had to buy it. Now I've, I've sold most of it at this point. Um, you know, I'm just holding on to a remnant position. and I'm looking for a better entry point. And I did the same thing with the Ethereum and reduced that, bought it three days ago when it was starting to spike and then reducing it down to kind of almost a non-existent position, just looking to see if it can get something. So I think it's good to see this money rotating into this space, or rotating around to something that, an area that tends to get people more, for lack of a better word, risk on.

49:31Like when crypto is working, people are more likely to, you know, push it a little harder. Go to hood, which is one way to play this. And I was looking at this going, okay, now it's back through its 50, it's back through its 200. Looks like it's the right side of a cup that it's forming. So, you know, I debated buying it here today, but it just was too loose and everything. But I think this is a good way of kind of playing that, but not directly. And so just an interesting thing. What was the other ETF you wanted to look at? You know, again, just a strong one acting today. Something that might be under the radar for a lot of people is XLB, the materials sector ETF.

50:19Now, of course, part of this is because one of the top holdings is FCX, and that had a nice breakout move. We talked about this on the SMT video yesterday. I think it was the stock of the day, too, maybe. But, yeah, very, very, very strong move on FCX and copper in general. I mean, you know, COPP, of course, is going to have FCX as one of the main components. But NEM is another big holding of XLB. So, yeah, go ahead and give us your thoughts on kind of this whole materials area. Yeah, you know, I think the FCX looks solid. It was a clean breakout out of a clean base. I think that's good. I mean, it just looks normal, like it should move higher.

51:11And I was going to buy it this morning, but I was just tied up with other things that I was trading. And there's a lot of risk when you buy a stock that's gapping up that day because it could go sideways for several days. It could just gap and run and just keep running next week. But you could get this down day Monday that's normal and natural. It happens a lot after a big up day. And I just said, you know what? I just didn't want to take that risk. I'll probably regret it and then have to chase it. But this general space looks good. I mean, the gold area, silver, platinum, you know, I was, you know, those are all the copper, like you mentioned.

51:56Money is moving there and it's very clear. Now, those can be tricky. Let's go to G. Oh, yeah. GDX. That's fine. Yeah. I've got a position in that as well. But I do I. And we have this on swing trader. Took some profits on that today. Yeah. And I took a lot of my profits. I'm just holding a token position because normally I'd say, well, I just let this winter run. But we've been in this market where you just get those rotations. I'm like, you know what, I'm going to just start locking some in while they're up there and trying to get some better additional entries. But the entire group of the gold miners just looks extended and out of position.

52:36So if you're not in them already, I think you kind of have to look for some entries or just kind of slowly dollar cost averaging. But it's tricky because go to ITA. I didn't pull this up today, but I did see enough of that area that, you know, was looking really good. Yeah. So defense was looking great a week ago. I mean, really was looking good. And there were a lot of ones in there that like you could just, you know, throw a dart at the group and you would find a good looking chart. And then they all just kind of got hit. And so you get news that comes out that hits things. And so I'm just reluctant, you know, with a goal to just plow into it and just hold a big position.

53:19But let's go to the GLD and take a look at that with an open mind. and and this is the gld instead of the gdx right yes the gld because i always like it if i'm trading the gdx or things like that i um i always like to look at gold or silver and just to kind of get a cleaner look at what's really going on because the gdx can be um you know you got a bunch of different market cap sizes in there and it can skew things a little bit and it's just cleaner to just look at the instrument so again this one looks it's now just finally poking through its 200 day and i'm just going to be looking for kind of a clean entry it's just extended from anything it's three days extended at this point and so just hoping that it forms some sort of shelf or something but it could just end up rolling rolling back over we don't know but what tends to happen when you have commodities when they trend they can trend for a long time So I do keep an open mind with that.

54:21But we've just had so much chop. It's just kind of hard to not take some profits when you have them. Very good. Well, I'm going to go ahead and stop my sharing and turn the reins over to you. Okay. Reluctantly. You know, because of my power trips. Can you see my thing? Yep. Okay. So we're going to do the mosaic thing where I go through a bunch of charts. Each chart, we just look at it individually in isolation and to paint a picture. And then we kind of step back mentally from it and just go, what did that tell us? So we're going to start off with the Bob Weir, take a step back, looking at weekly charts.

55:01And we're looking at the candles. And this is SPY to kind of see, is it giving us any type of expectation? and with this type of bar in there it's just normal and natural given the big move up we had two bars ago or two candles ago and just kind of hanging in there that leaves you with an expectation of sideways not necessarily falling apart because you did uh you do have a bottom wick in there meaning that you close up off your lows but not enough in a in a not in a material way where it's like, oh, we should go higher next week. This gives me the impression of sideways to down. And you just got to call it the way you see it.

55:46And then the same thing here with the NASDAQ. Let's look at the RSP. And this one is just looking normal, but it also isn't giving you a clear it should move up next week or down next week. It just almost looks like it should just kind of go sideways. So we will see. So that's the first chart. Now our next chart, we don't have enough time on here for us to put the regressions, but I did want to just show that when we do have enough time, we will be starting it here on July 29th. And I just put a couple lines on there just to kind of see where it would, what it would look like, but you can't read in to that or to the NASDAQ on there, also starting on the same date.

56:37That one's underneath it. Again, we just don't have enough data there. But what I did want to show, again, is the RSP. And this has been trading through, and these are my regression lines. I started off on 4.8 and then stopped it at 6.16, which was 50 trading days, if I have that in there correctly. And we've got our one standard deviation below and one standard deviation above our line of best fit from the data from here to here. And so that kind of established a trend. And we just keep those lines on there to see when does it break out from there to the upside or to the downside. and right now it's just been staying within it and in in a perfect way when it came down to just underneath our um our minus one standard deviation it poked right back up and went up to home base exactly how it should kind of ran out of steam before the the dashed red line the half standard deviation above which is normal and natural and then came back in so why are we looking at this?

57:45We're looking at it to see, has the character changed? If it gets overheated, we'll be living up in here. And then that's a whole different playbook that you go with. And if it comes down here, then we'll be looking to kind of reload if it can make it back through your green dash line. But right now, it's just in this nice trending thing. So So that leaves us with kind of a warm and fuzzy feeling, which is always. Although I will say, to be fair, the hardest thing about this nice, steady, what looks easy is that whenever we heat up elsewhere, it's always hard to hold on to RSP because you're like, this isn't moving.

58:28You know, I want to go into the stuff that's moving. You know, yeah, it's got a it's got an ATR below one. And it just feels like, you know, as you often say, watching paint dry. You have to have a patience level for this that I don't have, clearly. But this is a perfect thing. You're spot on with that, Justin. Okay, so next is we're doing the 50 % retracement and just looking at that. Still sticking with the 50 % retracement of June for the high and the low in June. and then are we living in the northern hemisphere or not well we're all the way up and you know which one is it justin antarctica is at the top or what what's the north pole that's the arctic antarctica is the one down there anti-arctic let's say you know if it helps you so i'll just say santa claus it's up there with santa claus so it's it's up there and that's why you should go on jeopardy not me because i'd be like oh my god this guy didn't know where antarctica was okay So now let's look at the NASDAQ So this one is in the northern hemisphere And still at least is living in there But we really want to get it up there Up around Christmas time Okay, so now we'll go over to our kind of lines in the sand And this is for SPY Let me blow this up a little bit So I removed some of the lines Because we had gone through them So the next line on the upside is a 773.41, which is the high from the, what is that, the fourth.

1:00:14And then the low from the fourth becomes an important line, and that's where the 760.28. On the downside, where you really want to start backing away, if we come down there, is a 748.80, and that's the low from the third. And then you have these other lines that, you know, we'll deal with those if we get there. Hopefully we don't. Same thing on the NASDAQ. We want to get over these highs here from just last week. But on the downside, it was the low of the fourth that we did breach. So we want to stay above that. And we want to get our low above it at minimum, which we traded through it today. That's not a good thing.

1:00:58And then our line in the sand really is kind of this, the low from this August 3rd. If we go underneath there, we got to do some damage control. Now we're going to move on to my Webinacci indicator. This is a very simple thing. Are you laughing at me? I don't have you up there. Okay. Yeah, no, no. I was laughing at the Webinacci. Okay. No, no. Julie from Hawaii is the one who named that for me. I was calling it, though, the Webby Simple Fib Trend. And she's like, why not go with Webinacci? And so I like that. I just need to change the name. What is this doing? It's very simple. It's just using a bunch of moving averages.

1:01:44I use Fibonacci numbers, so a 3, a 5, and an 8, and so on. You can Google it to see all the different numbers. and then I just give it a plus one if the shorter term one is above a longer term one and that translates down here in the bottom and it maxes out at 45 and the minimum is zero if you're in a terrible downtrend. And so you can see, it's a very easy way to know what type of trend you're in and if we zoom out, where you're making most of your money is when you're ramping up like we were there in April and then when you're flatlining along the top. And let's just toggle over to RSP to kind of see that.

1:02:25That's been kind of flatlining for the most part along the top, a couple dips down in here, but nothing really material. But let's look at the composite, I mean, quite a bit different, where you did have that ramp up there in April and everything, but then we fell out of bed here in July. And then in the different levels, 35 is important. the 30 is important. And as you're breaking through those, you're backing away more. But it's just another way of looking at things. Eventually we'll get this in market surge as well. And then this is just the stripped out everything from there and just looking at the 21-day exponential, which is a very important thing to me, and paying attention to the low versus the 21-day of that blue line.

1:03:18And at least now we got the low above it on SPY again. So we've got one day behind us. And we'll look at the NASDAQ. And now that's back underneath it. So that's not the look that we want. Let me switch over to our other charts. Let's see. Sugar in the morning. Hold on a second.

1:03:45sharing is always hard for me on here um okay can you see that yep okay got it okay so we'll start off with the um web rsi and we'll we'll go to spy on this one and um with this is this line down there at the bottom or the histogram at the bottom and that's just measuring your distance of your low versus your 21 day. And you want to see a wall of blue there like we had back here in April. And that's telling you that you're in a healthy market where you're trending nicely up because your low is staying above your 21 day. So it's a very simple indicator as the name implies. So we got a little tiny little one brick in our wall here.

1:04:30We really need a full wall and we don't have it. Let's look at the NASDAQ. And this one, it doesn't have anything at all on here because our low is still not above that. If your high gets underneath it, then it turns into this burnt orange color there. Let's look at RSP since we've been doing that. And this has had that nice wall. It's just like a small wall this whole time, trending nicely. We'll go over to our Bob Marley off high indicator, and we'll use VOO for this one because SPI had a bad print. So with this one, we're just looking at it and saying, okay, when you pulled back, are the pullbacks happening in a constructive way or not?

1:05:18And how do we measure that? We're just taking the, this is the lowest point versus the high in expressing ATRs. The green section is zero to four ATRs. The yellow section is four to eight ATRs. So when you're just looking at the color area, it tells you one thing, but really to say how strong is the market when you come down and we have this pullback on, what is that, June 9th, and it hit about four and a half ATRs off the high, We want any of the other pullbacks to be less than that. And that's what we've had. This one here, this one here. So rather than getting bigger. So this is a healthy market.

1:06:05But let's take a look at the NASDAQ. And it's the opposite. Where first pullback was here at 2.7 or so. Then we fell down to about 4. Then we fell down to about 5. And then this time we fell down to over 6. that's the opposite of what we want to see and um you know let's take a look at the rsp to kind of get a sense for what a really healthy one is and they're all relatively low in here i mean the worst they got was was still less than three atrs off the high so that is what we have for you as far as charts and it was fun being um with you we didn't get a chloe update so since you are grandpa.

1:06:50What's going on in grandpa land over there before we wrap things up? Well, my, my granddaughter just turned one, uh, Allie's, Allie's daughter is right behind me. So, uh, yeah, uh, it was a fun, fun little party we had on the 15th when she, she turned one. And, uh, last night I went there, baby sat for a little bit. Uh, so my daughter could shower and do things like that. So, um, yeah, but yeah, we had a good time. She, she was enjoying, uh, you know, sitting on these little steps uh and going going up and down you know standing up you know sitting down and then walking a little bit and pausing you know getting her balance and then you know taking a few more steps so uh very cute and uh yeah and she just she grabs my glasses all the time and that's that's her favorite thing to do is as soon as she sees me i pick her up and she just grabs my glasses from you know usually where they're hanging on my shirt um but she's a she's a crazy smile that looks half just full of joy and half like a crazy person.

1:07:51And I love it. Those pictures that you shared with us the other day were great. And the one with all of your kids, including your son was there and everything. That I just was staring at that. It was like, I cannot wait to be a grandpa. I was like, oh, my God, I'm just living through my buddy. What is what does she refer to you as? Like, what is your name going to? Yeah, she's not talking yet. So we'll see what it ends up being. I've thought about going with the Danish mofa, which basically means mother's father. Or, yeah, we'll figure something out. Mofa is a good thing. That could be, you know, you're quite a mofa.

1:08:35You know, like that could be taken out of context. But I like that. And I knew with your Danish thing that you probably have something cool there. Well, I'm glad that you're experiencing that and I'm looking forward to having you on this show again next Friday while Allie is still out. So let's just kind of recap what's going on with the market. Could you share that in case people forgot to do a screen grab? Can you give them the homework assignment again? Maybe I'll do a video on this if I have time to go over these because I'm going to be spending the time to go over these for the third time.

1:09:11I went through it yesterday quickly, too quickly, made some mistakes. I went through it again today. And it's always good to spend as much time when you have some potential precedents and you'll learn something through it. So, again, go to the date on there. So screen grab it now so you can have it for your homework. But go to the date itself. So if you're going to go to 10-29-1975, go there on that date and advance forward one day at a time and learn something from it and ask yourself every day, like, how would you handle this? You will see with the old dates, there are some data issues that we have, and then lots of them will have close-only values on there.

1:09:57We are working on that, but it'll still give you the general feel of what it is that you're after. and something to expect for the next week and the week after and everything. So it'll be very interesting. I think the most important thing for us right now is the NASDAQ doesn't have to participate. We just don't want it to roll over and be a huge drag because it hasn't been the leading one, even though it's our favorite index. Historically, it's just not where the money is right now. So I would really pay attention to the RRSP to make sure that that character doesn't change. and with the SPY, we want to get that low above the 21 day for three consecutive days and close up and then that'll tell us that we're more to being out of the woods and then of course, we want to get back over the date where I last Friday, where I'd said that it was the power trend and spirit had started because that's the, then you know that you're really getting out of the woods at that point.

1:10:57So, it's like incremental baby steps, but be careful out there. It's been really hard for me. I don't know about for you, Justin, but it's been just, you know, there are opportunities all over the place. A slow grind lower in my equity curve. And yeah, as you said, it's frustrating because you see, you know, all these other areas that are working and it's like, why, why am I going down? You know, and, and, and, you know, I mean, today was a good day, you know, because of gold and, you know, other things like that, that I have. But yeah, overall, it's just, it's frustrating. And I'm going to I'm going to put Tim, our good friend Tim on last year because he made a very accurate comment about the Gary Busey smile, which is very similar to Harley's smile, my granddaughter's smile.

1:11:46But now, unfortunately, I might not be able to look at her without not seeing Gary Busey. So I'm not sure, you know, while Tim might be accurate, I'm not sure I like how accurate. Oh, my God. have you watched have you watched his best movie the the buddy holly story um yeah so but what what uh what tim was referring to was more the lethal weapon which completely accurate so okay or was it the 48 hours or or was it lethal weapon because i don't think he was in was he in it no he was in lethal weapon oh he was 48 hours 48 hours was nick nolte um oh that's who i was getting okay i was man dude i'm getting old i'm older than you and i'm not a grandpa yet i will say if you guys are you know a lot of people who watch probably have a day job i decided to do a webby rambles on on how to handle the market if you have a day job or you're on vacation that drops tomorrow on my youtube channel webby 5150 um it's short for one of mine it's less than an hour so um and there's no charts involved so you can just listen to it on a drive or a walk be careful if you're driving people tend to fall asleep but i i think it's a helpful one and uh well thanks for the thanks for the warning yes okay well thanks a lot webby uh we will see you have a great weekend uh enjoy your zz top concert uh and uh yeah i missed out on that when they were in hollywood bowl they canceled the concert and unfortunately frank beard died in the meantime um we will also have iBity Live right back on on Monday.

1:13:26Join us for that 10 minutes before the open and going a full 100 minutes into the trading day. And Webby, of course, is often on those Mondays, as am I. And we'll also see you right back here on Monday for the SMT video. Thanks a lot for watching. We'll see you next time. Bye now.

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