In short
Stock-market technical analysis after a “seismic shift” week (April 10, Friday). Guests argue the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed follow-through strength, with key levels reclaimed (especially the 200-day moving average). They also discuss how to interpret big gap-ups using historical “follow-through day” precedents and “true range,” plus ETF/sector leadership and specific stock setups.
Guests
Alissa Quirós (host, Stock Market Today) and Mike Webster (“Webby,” IBD colleague). Webster presents chart-based research and references IBD founder Bill O’Neil’s follow-through rules and Charles Harris’s moving-average focus.
Key claims
Candle “character” flipped from mostly pink (weak closes) to a “wall of blue” (strong closes). Follow-through day signals plus closes/lows above the 21-day and 200-day suggest bullish regime change; falling back below the 200-day would reverse the view. Market is portrayed as pricing geopolitical risk but more sensitive to inflation/oil and Fed response.
Notable examples
Historical follow-through gaps (e.g., 12/15/2002, 10/2002, 6/5/2020, 10/21/2014). ETFs: VXUS (international ex-US) and SMH (semiconductors). Stocks: Powell Industries (Powell) +26% week, Fastly (noted weakness), PWR (Qantas services) +4.4% week, plus software/IGV caution.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Overview and Historical Context
0:44 to 3:08
Analyzing this week's market shifts and historical context to position portfolios.
“And joining me now to do just that is my colleague, Mike Webster.”
Technical Signals and Market Character
3:08 to 4:34
Exploring the important technical signals and market character changes this week.
“So why don't you walk us through that and through this week's action, your take?”
Follow-Through Day System Explained
4:34 to 7:56
Understanding the follow-through day system and its significance in trading.
“using the new market surge, you know, you're going to love this part of it where you just can zoom in and really get into the nitty gritty.”
Market Levels and Trading Strategies
7:56 to 10:40
Discussing key market levels and strategies for navigating current trends.
“We could get any negative news out of Iran or out of the White House or out of Israel or anywhere else.”
Inflation Concerns and Market Sentiment
10:40 to 14:00
Examining inflation concerns and overall market sentiment amidst current events.
“And we've talked about that over the last two or three weeks.”
Understanding Follow-Through Days
14:00 to 14:39
Learn the significance of follow-through days in stock trading.
“even my six hours that I've done on my YouTube channel on why I don't use volume.”
Analyzing Gaps in Stock Prices
14:39 to 16:24
Explore how to analyze price gaps and their implications for trading.
“And so if people don't know, the rules that basically Justin and I came up with after studying the follow-through day was if you close below the low of the follow -through day.”
Data from Historical Stock Gaps
16:24 to 18:32
Examine data on historical gaps to understand market behavior.
“What we're going to show in a second, well, why don't you go ahead and show it and I'll walk through what it is.”
Case Studies: Past Market Gaps
18:32 to 21:06
Review significant past market gaps and their outcomes.
“and we'll start with those dates I gave you.”
Recognizing Failure Signals in Trading
21:06 to 24:40
Learn how to identify signals that indicate a trade may fail.
“So that's your sign that, hey, probably this isn't going to work out.”
Show all 27 chapters
Follow-Through Day Patterns and Market Behavior
24:40 to 27:06
Discover patterns related to follow-through days and their implications.
“I would be, and I know what ends up happening, but I would still be selling in a big way.”
Responding to Market Conditions
27:06 to 28:00
Understand how to react to changing market conditions and signals.
“So now we're going forward in time to 2020, right?”
Market Trends and Moving Averages
28:00 to 28:28
Discussion on market movement relative to key moving averages.
“Oh, you were going exactly where I was going.”
The Importance of Follow-Through Days
28:28 to 29:28
Explaining follow-through days and their significance in trading.
“And this is a subsequent follow-through day, right?”
Historical Context and Market Sentiment
29:28 to 30:48
Analyzing past market behavior to understand current sentiment.
“terrible i mean we were you know all these terrible things were happening with covet but everything was shut down.”
Understanding Market Signals and Predictions
30:48 to 32:53
Discussing current market signals and potential future scenarios.
“And so when, you know, networks do things like that, you know, you kind of can't blame them.”
Investor Sentiment and Market Indicators
32:53 to 34:59
Reflecting on investor sentiment and its implications for trading.
“No, but you have to have some sort of roadmap of what to expect.”
Analyzing ETFs and International Markets
34:59 to 38:49
Reviewing specific ETFs and their performance in current market conditions.
“If you're negative on this market, let us know.”
Sector Performance Insights
38:49 to 42:00
Examining the performance of different market sectors and their significance.
“Well, sometimes a pullback into the top of the pivot, that happens about half the time, but not going much below that.”
Analyzing Stock Trends and Breakouts
42:00 to 45:00
Learn about the analysis of notable stocks, focusing on breakout patterns and market conditions.
“And then so your stock that's trying to buck the trend gets that selling from the ETF level.”
Fastly and Market Reactions
45:00 to 48:20
Explore the unexpected performance of Fastly and its impact on market sentiment.
“Or if it goes sideways and has an upside reversal in there, something to trade against.”
Expectations from Weekly Candle Patterns
48:20 to 51:40
Understand how weekly candle patterns can inform expectations for the upcoming week in trading.
“Let's round things out for this segment with a look at PWR.”
Key Levels and Market Indicators
51:40 to 56:00
Identify key market levels and indicators crucial for making informed trading decisions.
“and you need a trending market, which you only get with time.”
Market Trends and Indicators
56:00 to 57:36
Discover how the current market trends are performing and what indicators are vital.
“But once you get up there in good markets, you'll just be pinned to the top there.”
Understanding the 21-Day Timing Signal
57:36 to 59:20
Learn about the importance of the 21-day timing signal in market analysis.
“So we're very thankful that you did come up with that.”
Analyzing Market Pullbacks
59:20 to 1:02:02
Explore how the market behaves during pullbacks and the significance of ATRs.
“Part of that is a product of the ATR has increased because of the volatility.”
Creating Your Market Game Plan
1:02:02 to 1:08:21
Learn how to create a structured game plan for market approaches and stock management.
“Let's give a summary and an action plan for folks, just because this was a long episode.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00We're the Hartford, with decades of experience insuring millions of unique small businesses. When it comes to your small business insurance, one size absolutely does not fit all. Get a quote or find an agent today at thehartford.com slash small business.
0:25Justin Nielsen:good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today for friday april 10th it's alissa quorum here and a big week in the stock market a seismic shift for stocks and the major indexes with notable levels being retaken and held we'll give you the historical context that you need for the current moment to be able to properly position your portfolio. And joining me now to do just that is my colleague, Mike Webster. Webby, great to see you. How did you say properly? I would have been tongue-tied with whatever you just said, but more power to you. That's why you're the pro around here. You know, sometimes the no teleprompter works in my favor.
1:06Justin Nielsen:Other times not. I guess today that off-the-cuff creativity worked out for me. So, you know, we'll just go with it. There you go. Well, we've got a lot to get to today, Webby. So let's roll up our sleeves and get started. We're just a little bit of a roadmap today. We had a follow through day this week. So we have some historical analysis that Webby compiled that we want to share with everyone. And then we're going to take a look at a lot of different charts, some stocks to watch, a couple of ETFs. And of course, we've got Webby's charts, and I'm sure there's a lot of interesting pieces to the mosaic.
1:48Justin Nielsen:So looking forward to getting into all of that with you, Webby. Let's first take a look at the current NASDAQ composite and talk about the gains for the day and the week. So on the day, the NASDAQ up a little less than four tenths of a percent off its high. But if you put that in the context of the weekly gain, I mean, it was quite a week here with the NASDAQ up a whopping 4.7%. Meanwhile, the S &P 500 on the week up 3.6%. And the Dow for the week up 3 % and the Russell 2000, also with a sizable gain on the week up 4%. So we did have a follow through day for the S &P 500 on Wednesday and a follow through day in spirit for the NASDAQ since the volume component there, which you're not concerned with, was just a hair short.
2:46Justin Nielsen:But just looking at the charts here, Webby, you can see that seismic shift that unfolded, news-related. But to your point earlier this week on IEBD Live, there were technical signals underneath the surface for how things were acting before this news came out. That was a little bit of a tell. So why don't you walk us through that and through this week's action, your take? Yeah, this was about as important of a week as we've had in a very, very long time. And I'm kind of looking at this. Let's go to the NASDAQ for a second, because we've been in a very challenging market for our style, or certainly if you're a swing trader, since last October.
3:31And could you go to October 10th and just point that from that day, from that really bad day on October 10th, even though the market continued higher, it was just so whipsaw and really difficult. I mean, if you had some positions from way back when that you're just riding, that was that was different. That's how you could have done really well during that time. But if you were getting into newer positions, you were just getting chopped up unless you were just, you know, in the zone or getting a little bit lucky. So on that day, I remember it in hindsight, I should have gotten more conservative after that because that day was such a you just look at that chart and it just changed.
4:15It was a change in character. And I think that's what we had, not just on our follow through day this week, but I think also leading up to that. the change in character. So let's walk through that. Let's go to our current, let's blow up in on our current last week or so. And that's what I love about our new beta, which if you guys aren't using the new market surge, you know, you're going to love this part of it where you just can zoom in and really get into the nitty gritty. It's one of my favorite parts about it, as well as, you know, the candles and all. Let's turn on the candles for a second for this aspect of it.
4:52Justin Nielsen:Yes, happy to do that. So we'll just go into the little utilities icon there. Actually, nope, it's the next one over and we will go to the candles. Okay. So this is the first thing that you'll want to pay attention to is with a candle, as we always talk about, the blue candles are where you close above the open and the pink ones are in reverse. So you're closing lower than the open. That is a much bigger deal than you think. And it's really, it kind of tells you the character of the market. In a weak, poor environment, you're going to open strong and then it's going to fade because people are going to sell into that.
5:33They're either going to be true natural sellers or they're going to be shorting. And in a healthy market, everyone's nervous and it kind of starts off weak and then builds from there. So you can see over the last month, it was pink, pink, pink, pink, pink. And now we have this kind of wall of blue that we're getting. So we've got that going for us. And that's something that Bill O 'Neill, the founder of IBD, always would point out the open versus a close on an index level. He didn't use candles, but he was just aware of it, of course, because he was watching every last little tick. So that was one aspect of it.
6:09Now, we can put it back to our normal bars that we're used to. So we had that bottom day. The market looked terrible down there. It absolutely did. And then, you know, you bounced up. And, you know, those happen. And it wasn't there was in I wasn't really impressed at that point because there wasn't anything to be impressed by. It was I don't like to use this word, but it's what most people can relate to. It was oversold. So lots of times on a way down, you get those oversold mean reversions back up. And in a bear market or a severe correction, that's when you get those biggest snapbacks up because people are off sides.
6:50You know, the shorts are getting squeezed and then everyone's with their FOMO is jumping in. So when we got that initial day, big up day, one day off the bottom, it just didn't do anything for me. And I don't think it would have done anything for Bill either. That's why he came up with the follow through day system where you don't really pay too much attention or you pay attention, but you don't act on that first day of the rally. You wait until the fourth day or after because it has a little bit of a cooling off period of time. And then you want to have another follow on, big update. And that's what we call a follow through day.
7:26And that's where you shift from being negative to being positive. And let me tell you, being around Bill all those years, when we talk on Sunday nights, he could be the biggest bear in the world, more bearish than anyone would ever imagine, and then flip on a dime and be more bullish two days later than anyone could imagine based on what the market is doing. And I think if he were with us right now, he would be extremely bullish. And we're going to walk through that during the show. Yes, I'm aware we're in a news environment. We could get any negative news out of Iran or out of the White House or out of Israel or anywhere else.
8:05That's a possibility. But if you go back and study history, that's how bull markets go up. Everyone has something to worry about. So you got to do, you know, trade your own way. But I'm just going to tell you how I'm looking at this. It looks very bullish. Let's go through why. So after those first two days up from the bottom, that next shakeout was a big deal. Like, you know, you came way down, tested things, and then you moved up. So that was your first sign of things being very positive. Then that next day, the day before the gap up, you had another one of those tests on there. And that was, you know, that was a really big deal.
8:47Now, the news that was coming out in the midst of that was horrible. Everyone saw the tweets or the true social posts from our president that were as aggressive as I've ever seen anything in politics. I think, you know, unprecedented and really saying like, wow, things could get really bad. And yet the market was firming up and looking so good. That's the first tell that you had. And on Sunday night, when the futures opened up in the midst of that, and we were only down a little bit, I was like, we're gone. We're good. The market has priced everything in. And I did start buying Sunday night in a big way, something I normally don't do.
9:32But it was just a gift, I thought, to anyone who's paying attention to start building some positions. And I don't think people should do that, but I'm just being honest about how I was reading that. Now, then eventually we got that big gap up when the news happened. And the key is on that gap, you got back above the most important level, the 200 day. I always pay attention to the 21 day. That's your green line on there. And the red line is your 50 day. That is the one thing that bothers me because it's still in a downtrend. That's something that I learned from Charles Harris, an old colleague of mine and a friend of IBD that he would always pay attention to is that 50 day in a decline because it it can kind of stop a market for a while.
10:26But we got through that, which was very impressive. But really what I was paying attention to was that 200-day. Now, if we fall back below that, I will start getting bearish again. But as long as we're above it, it's just really a game changer. And we've talked about that over the last two or three weeks. And we went back and looked at a lot of times underneath the 200-day. When you're underneath the 200-day, bad things tend to happen. When you're above it, good things tend to happen. That's just probably the most important thing to know about the market, frankly. Now, on a more granular level, it's the 21 day, which is the green line.
11:03And we go through our normal checklist. First, you want to get a close above it. We got that a couple of times. Then you want to get your low above it and closing up. That's another thing. Now we've got three days with our low above it and closing up. And also the same thing with the the 200-day, which is more important, and, you know, our low is now above the 50-day as well. Now, could we back and fill? Absolutely. Is everyone who's still on the sidelines expecting a pullback and wanting a pullback? Yes. And typically when you want a pullback, they don't end up happening because I think everyone's off sides.
11:40I mean, I did see some people making comments, you know, online about how, oh, they were never concerned. Well, if they weren't concerned when you're underneath the 200-day, you're doing it wrong because you should be because that's how they start off. Just like Bill would say, you know, how does this stock get from 50 to 100? It goes 50, 51, 51.5, 53, and so on. It's gradual through there. So that's kind of where I stand with things. It's not what the market is doing, but it's what the market was doing in the midst of the news environment that we have. Right. Because we should have been on Sunday night.
12:19We should have been down three or four percent on given what was flowing in there. So how do I interpret that? What I'm doing is saying the market is now pricing in. They're not really concerned about, in my opinion, about the war and the humanitarian aspect. of that and those things. We all are as people, but I don't think the market is. They're concerned about inflation because that's a real concern. If the straits get shut down for a long period of time, if that ends up turning out to be what ends up happening, oil, like you're showing, man, you're so good. Oil is going to, you know, just keep skyrocketing and that's going to flow through to the cost of goods.
13:05Inflation is going to be up there. And then the Fed is going to have to, you know, deal with that in a way that the market doesn't want. So now, you know, a lot of good things can happen if this resolution does go through, which we don't know, we've got to, you know, time has got to, you know, play out there. And we're nervous. I'm nervous about that. If you're not nervous about the news, you know, you're kind of crazy because you should be because given the right news, we could gap right down through the 200-day, but you look at your instruments and you trust your instruments if you've studied them.
13:41So in summary, above the 21-day for three consecutive days, above the 200-day for three consecutive days, a major follow-through day on the S &P and the NASDAQ. In my view, if this week doesn't tell you the volume is dirty by looking at the NASDAQ, nothing ever will. even my six hours that I've done on my YouTube channel on why I don't use volume. But all I need to do is show this follow-through day. I mean, if people still use volume after that, I don't know what to tell you.
14:15Justin Nielsen:Right. Well said, Webby. I know we have a lot more to get to, but while we are on this chart, I think also talking about the low of the follow through day that you're looking at and how are you accounting for the true range in that situation? That is the question. And so if people don't know, the rules that basically Justin and I came up with after studying the follow-through day was if you close below the low of the follow -through day. it signals that that follow through day is going to end up failing almost all of them do but now you've got this gap up so there's what you refer to as a true range is really the gap from the close of the day before so that's a mile wide right there and when I saw that I was very nervous so I asked Justin to go to his big spreadsheet on all the follow through days it's so great having Justin around and said, let's look at a gap, but let's do it a little bit differently.
15:36Let's do a visual gap. There's lots of ways of looking at gaps. Most of the time, you'll look at it from the prior day's close to the next day's open. That's kind of the standard. You could also look at it from the prior day's close to that day's low. But really, I wanted to see this big wide thing there. So I said, let's just do it from the prior day's high to the follow through days low. And let's look at all of the ones that have any gap. And so yesterday I spent hours just going through. In fact, I recorded it, doing it, and I put it out for Webby Rambles on that's tomorrow on my YouTube channel, Webby 5150.
16:14If you need trouble sleeping, you can go through that because I go through every one. But with this, or at least all the ones from like the 1980s forward. What we're going to show in a second, well, why don't you go ahead and show it and I'll walk through what it is. So this is from Justin's spreadsheet and it's a subset of that. And this is only ones with a gap of a half a percent or more. And it's sorted by the largest gap. And you can see over in the top left-hand corner, that's the 10-15-02 and four down from there was what we had this week. So this is one of the largest gaps in the NASDAQ history.
16:55Well, it's the fourth largest gap on a follow-through day. So over the weekend, I would suggest that people go through all of these, go to that date, and they go bar by bar forward so you know what is normal and natural. Some of these, a lot of these fail, and you've got to be aware of that. And that's why you have to go look at those dates. So this is extremely valuable. I can't tell you how valuable this is and how grateful I am that Justin has always kept his spreadsheet up to date. So what are the data items on there? So you've got the date, that's obvious, the percent change on the day, the closing range.
17:37What that means is within the actual bar, where did it close? If it closed at the top, that's 100. If it closed at the bottom, it's zero. The middle would be 50. The next thing is the true range. That takes into account the actual gap in the traditional sense of from the close of the prior day to the high of the day in question, in this case, the follow-through day, and then where it closed. So there's two of them there to use, then the actual gap in those terms that I talked about from the high to the low. And then the gap in terms of ATRs, because that's how you can kind of equalize everything.
18:16Because in the 2000 timeframe, you might have an average day of being up three or movement of 3 % versus a normal environment is more like 1%, give or take. So that's why I wanted to include that on there. Why don't we look at a few of these and we'll start with those dates I gave you.
18:37Justin Nielsen:Absolutely. Absolutely. And I mean, this is gold. It really is. It really is. Yeah. The fact that we're sharing this for free with everyone. Yeah. Yeah. Great job. What? We're trying to help folks. Exactly. Exactly. Right. So a lot, a lot of value here. Okay. So I'm going to go to, we love helping people. it's the best and uh yeah before we go to the date look at everyone you always want to when you're doing historical work you look at your current chart you kind of cement that in your mind and what we're focused in on is that gap up that we had on wednesday so let's just look at that and pay attention to where it was in relationship to its uh 200 day and it's 50 day and now we'll look at the examples.
19:34Justin Nielsen:Okay, so we're going to go back in time to December 8th, 2000. Okay, so now with this, you always have to put out of your mind that you know what ends up happening. Everyone realizes that from 2000 to 2002 was a terrible bear market, but when you do historical work, you've got to put that out of your mind and just say, okay, if I were in the battlefield on this day, how would I look at it? And this is a similar setup in that you had a gap there, but it's different in that you'd been underneath your 200-day for a very long time. So as a precedent, it doesn't really work. But as a very short-term, the follow-through day with a gap, it works.
20:18So let's pay attention to what happens with this gap there.
20:24Justin Nielsen:And we can go out to the next day. Okay, we're going to go to 12-13 of 2000. Okay, so at this point, you've closed a lot of that gap. So you're underneath the trading range, and that would be your signal to reduce. But it doesn't, you know, I don't think it completely closed the entire gap. I think we have one more. Oh, yeah, that's much better on my eyes. Thank you. Let's go out one more day. Okay. And what we're focusing in on is how to know when it fails. So the prior day, you had a couple kind of clues there. One, that 21 day, the green line on there, or lime color, it looks like, that one, it closed back below that and it started filling in that gap.
21:15So that's your sign that, hey, probably this isn't going to work out. If you've gotten heavy, you better start reducing because then the next day it truly does fail where it closes underneath that. And then you've got to get out of Dodge for sure. Now, if Bill were looking at this, he would say it's not completely dead until it takes out the absolute low, the 25, 23, where you're drawing it there. But he would also say you want to be out long gone before you get down there. But if you do historical work, it's officially not dead until there. Why does that matter? Because you don't need, in that position, you wouldn't need another follow-through day.
21:55Or you wouldn't need another rally day. You could have had another follow-through day. But then at that point, it undercuts it. All bets are off. You need a new rally day to get going. So this is one where it fails. And you always want to look at the full data set so you understand both sides because they don't all work as we've always talked about. So let's go to the next one.
22:19Justin Nielsen:Okay, we're going to go to October of 2002. Okay. So this, when Justin shared me the spreadsheet and we went to this, I literally like was jumping like and screaming. I was like, oh my God, because this is the bottom of that market. Let's zoom way out so they can see the damage. I just love our beta. Well, now it's just market surge. Yeah, the new market surge. And the look at that, it's just, it was devastating just all the way down from the top. And, oh, I lived through that and I don't ever want to live through that again. Oh, my God, that was terrible. So now at this point, no one believes it at all, including myself.
23:05But you get a big follow-through day and you have to take action on it. And Bill was buying eBay around this point. And that was one of his big winners. He ended up going about 200 % long in it eventually. initially um he built that over like a year or so but here you get this big giant follow-through day and you had had the other thing that's good about this is the position of it what i like to do is look at the first three days of the rally from the from the absolute low of the attempted rally to the high of those first three days to see how much progress did you make that's where a good follow-through day comes from.
23:44You can have a follow-through day underneath that, but then it's in a weak position and you don't get too excited about it because most of them don't end up working when they're in that position. So this was already looking good because you had three up days. Then you get this giant gap in there and it did go through a key level of your 50-day moving average and your low ended up getting way above your 21-day. So now let's go to the next day.
24:09Justin Nielsen:And for those who have been watching IBD Live and this show, that's something that you've been talking about is the positioning of this rally attempt and how that setup was developing for position of an ideal follow-through day. And who should be watching IBD Live? Everyone. It's been a while since I've done that. It has been a while. All right. Here's the next day. This is freaking tricky. I mean, it's down almost 4 % on the day. I would be, and I know what ends up happening, but I would still be selling in a big way. Why? Because you should, you know, I would still have some. After I've done the study, I'd know that I would have some.
24:53Before the study, I would have said to blow out the whole thing because that looks so bad, a gap, and then being down 4%. But what's good about it, it didn't close the entire range on there and it stayed above the 21 day. You knew where I was going. So now let's see. So let's say you bought some on the follow through day, right? Now you would have to reduce some the next day, but not necessarily be back into cash. Let's see what happens next.
25:23Justin Nielsen:Okay, we're going to go to 11 for 2002. And thanks so much, Webby, for all of the time pulling together all of this research. for. Well, I couldn't have done it without Justin's spreadsheet. That's for sure. So with this, the key thing is your low versus your 21 day and staying above it. When your low is above your 21 day, but in the back of your mind, you're nervous as can be, you've got to kind of try to just bring that nervousness down and just say, the reality is what the market's doing, not what you're worried about because everybody knows, you know, everybody knows we could get a a post from the president or something out of Lebanon or out of Iran or out of Israel or Pakistan, you never know what's going to happen.
26:07But the fact that it was trending up there like that gave you the information that the market knew something that you didn't know. And that was the bottom. And those people who study history would know that's just like 1932. But anyways, that's a topic for another day. So let's go out to the next state. Wait, wait, one more thing before we go there. So what you would have done is, so you have that gap down and you would have reduced, but the next day you get a gap up, but the gap up didn't close back above your follow through day high. So you would get back in, but not in a material way because you wanted a little bit more evidence.
Read the full transcript
26:45The very next day after that gap up, that's your perfect day to really kind of start pressing the gas. Why? You know why, Allie, you tell us.
26:56Justin Nielsen:upside reversal, little shake out there, and it closed above those highs. There you go. And then the rest was kind of history. We can go out to the next stage. Okay. So now we're going forward in time to 2020, right? That's where you want to go now? Okay. So now let's go to 2020. And like you said, erase your brain for what, you know, happens. let's go to 2020
27:27okay so this was the COVID bear market and yes we all know that it went up but you got to erase it like what was that men in black where they press a little button and oh yeah I love yeah you got to do that like okay I'm gonna use my founders club IBD founders club erase my brand beautiful gap on there the news was terrible just like now So put yourself back. It wasn't that long ago.
27:52Justin Nielsen:No one believed it. No one believed it at all. But you've got that gap on there. Close above the 21 day and a big day in a big way. Above that high. Oh, you were going exactly where I was going. Now let's move out from there. Okay. So we want to go ahead a couple of days. Almost a week. So for 14, 2020. There you go. Now back above your 200-day and your declining 50-day. The declining 50-day would scare you to death, but at least you got back above the 50 and the 200. So with a move above a declining 50-day, again, what I learned from Chuck was lots of times they'll back and fill around there a little bit as people are just kind of digesting those gains.
28:39Let's see how that played out.
28:41Justin Nielsen:And this is a subsequent follow-through day, right? Yes, it was. So once you get, good point. Once you get your original follow-through day, any other days that qualify on a percentage basis after that, and if you use the volume component there, as long as it's above the close of your original follow-through day, it's considered subsequent follow-through day, and then it's what we call a buy signal in IBD market school rules. Yeah, so we like seeing that. Okay, well, now we'll go to 6-5 of 2020. so to your point about the declining 50 go ahead that was just the the key point here was that lime colored line there and you're low the fact that it was able to stay above that that pretty much that whole time and just one bounce off of that even though the news flow was terrible i mean we were you know all these terrible things were happening with covet but everything was shut down.
29:39You know, I was nervous. If you weren't nervous, you know, you're not human or paying attention, but the market was your, you know, your tell. Yeah.
29:49Justin Nielsen:And this is why I love IEBD's approach to historical precedents and technical analysis because there was a, I'll never forget this, a financial news network that had a special every evening called Markets in Turmoil. in like into new highs into that summer like I think into July probably markets and turmoil and we were at we were back at highs so I'll never forget many many years but there's some people on there that I like but I just yeah yeah yeah I don't want to say anything bad yeah uh but That's the beauty of what we do. You know, we we are considering that context with the news and the macro and all of that.
30:41Justin Nielsen:But at the end of the day, listening to the charts is really going to give you that edge. And people need to realize with media, all media and we're media, it's about selling advertisement. That's everyone knows that. And so when, you know, networks do things like that, you know, you kind of can't blame them. They're just trying to get eyeballs there. But what we try to do is help people. And so we're going to just tell it the way it is. And, you know, versus just trying to get eyeballs. Yes. Okay. And I think we've got one more example. We're going to go to 2014 now, right? My favorite one. Okay.
31:22This is what I think has a precedent right now. Okay.
31:25Justin Nielsen:10-21 of 2014. And the reason why I'm using this as the closest precedent is not perfect, but the position with the 200-day where you just got down underneath it for just a little bit. And because the other ones, yes, they had the gap and everything, but the position in 2002, even though that was great that it worked out, So it was, you know, that was after a couple year bear market. So just a different position. This looks very similar, but not exactly. Well, it looks more like our current market than any of the other examples. But you wouldn't say it's a perfectly drawn out precedent because it isn't.
32:10But same basic feel. And let's see what a massive gap on there. Back above your 21 day, you're low above your 200 day. Sound familiar? Let's go out to the next date on there.
32:22Justin Nielsen:Okay, so we're going to go to 1031 of 2014. And there you go, back up into new highs. And again, focus in on the fact that your low is holding above your 21 day. And that was our last one, right? Yep. So let's go with that in mind, like just cement this in your mind, everybody. Now let's go to our current day and just picture that is a possibility. Does it mean it's going to happen? No, but you have to have some sort of roadmap of what to expect. Did we fade into the close? And would your expectation based on a fade into the close on a Friday mean maybe a week open? Yeah, probably, but it's probably going to be dictated by the news flow.
33:13but even if we come down and test the 22 ,500, that would still be normal and natural. I hope it doesn't happen, but that's certainly in the cards. Now, where is your line in the sand? For me at this point now, the 200 day would be a major line in the sand for me. If we get a close below that, I'm gonna have to back away in a big way. I don't want it to go all the way down to that gap. So it would be a gradual thing. The way we do things around here is gradual. Now, some of us personally might not always be gradual, but as far as how we explain to do things in the right, the right way to do it is just gradual.
33:58You put some money out there. If it's working, you put some more. If it's not working, you start backing away. And so that's where we stand. And I've got to say, you know, just listening around and looking around, lots of people are still negative. And that's really what you want. But you don't want to put too much weight into that because you can't back test it because it just depends on the people that you're around. Like if we, you know, if it was Bill that we were around with, I know he would be super bullish right now. So then that wouldn't help there. So don't, you know, I wouldn't look at bull bear.
34:32I wouldn't put too much weight into what other people are saying. But I do. It's like a little extra little thing. The more nervous people are, if everyone was gung-ho, then I would be more concerned. So I haven't looked at the YouTube comments. But if everyone's saying that I'm all wet on this, that would make me happy. So you guys can go ahead and put that in there.
34:55Justin Nielsen:Let's see. I'll check it out. But next, let me see, actually. Okay. I'm trying to see. I apologize. I'm getting a little bit of a cold. No, you're okay. I was trying to see. I don't know. I'm not seeing a lot of negativity. Well, let us know. If you're negative on this market, let us know. Or if you're positive, let us know in the Q &A. Give us your thoughts. Yeah, and if you like Sammy Hagar better than David Lee Roth, let us know, because then you're a true person. We'll take that, too. Okay, thanks so much, Webby. Really important context for the moment and levels to watch here. Okay, next on our list, let's take a look at a couple of ETFs.
35:50Justin Nielsen:I know one that we've focused on in recent, not only recent Fridays, but even going back to last year is this VXUS looking at the world minus the US. This also had a great week this week and in a different position. So this is a tricky area because we saw a big character change towards the end of February, beginning of March, but didn't quite see as much destruction, one might argue, versus the NASDAQ, the S &P, because it held that 200-day. What do you make of the action now? Is this normal and natural here? What are you expecting? Yeah, I do have a small position in this, and I thought that today, just to get some more international exposure, is it a perfect setup?
36:42No. But what I like is yesterday's, you know, shakeout that we had and a test of at least a part of that gap. So if folks don't know, this is the rest of the world, market cap weighted, excluding the U.S. So the fact that this is moving up, and remember, if you kind of put yourself back to how things were looking before we fell apart, this was really strong on a relative basis. And it's a slower, pokier, like a low ATR, which we can see the ATR up there. It's only two after all of this kind of destruction that we've had. That big gap down, that hurt me because I was in there and I got hurt in a big way on the day because I wasn't expecting that big of a move.
37:28It was really an extraordinarily large move for an instrument like this. But that's the type of news that we had. You got to remember, if that happened before, it can happen again. So, you know, if you end up being down four or five percent on an instrument like this, you've got to be very careful and back away. This to me looks like it's building the right side of a cup, as you can see there with pattern wreck. And, you know, even if it were to handle out here, that would be fine. So you could handle out. You just want to stay above that 80 level, which is give or take your your 50 day. But I wouldn't be like piling in in a big way here.
38:09But it was just nice to kind of get some slower exposure there. And it's you you don't have to have the international markets working for you. But given the context of the news, the fact that the global markets on balance are looking good, I like that.
38:25Justin Nielsen:And zooming in in the international space, we were looking at this Brazil ETF on IBD Live when it was clearing the trend line and over the last couple of days. So a lot of strength in this area, Webby. Yeah, so I do have a position here as well. Well, and to me, you want to see base breakouts on an index level because then you have something to trade against. So what would be normal and natural? Well, sometimes a pullback into the top of the pivot, that happens about half the time, but not going much below that. So it gives you an expectation for, you know, what should, let me restate that. The fact that it could pull back into that pivot area, that would still be normal and natural.
39:14But given the way this moved up, I would say that that's less likely to happen. And so, you know, I have some there. Not a huge exposure, but I like having, you know, being kind of spread out. You know, it helps me sleep at night. So having a VXUS, which is very spread out, and something like this is less spread out. but you're going to get a little bit more oomph there. So I think it looks good. Now, can you buy it here? No, it's too far out of there. So if it can, you know, go sideways a little bit, you know, technically it's still in the buy zone, but, you know, you don't, if you're buying it here, you've got to say, where are you going to get stopped out?
39:59And I would say the low of the gap up day, you wouldn't want to give it any more than that.
40:04Justin Nielsen:Right. Okay. Okay. And speaking of power, chips came back in a big way this week, taking a look at the weekly gain for the SMH, up 11.4%. So a lot of stocks, broad-based strength, I would say, in this sector, no doubt. Yeah. And I like this. I do have a small position here, too. But what I like about this is ships tend to be kind of a leading group. And earlier this week, the utilities were really strong. Let's go to XLU for a second. Sure. That was bothering me. And I was, yeah, I was asking Ed, I'm like, why is, you know, why are utilities so strong? And I like the fact that they, because utilities is kind of like the XLP or, you know, the consumer staples, that's, those work when people are scared.
40:58And so that was bothering me that there was, it was strong. And so I like the fact that this was weaker than things. And you can see that RS line over the last couple of weeks going straight down. So that's another positive. You don't want those doing well and you want something like a chip sector doing well. And let's go to IGV for a second. This is about as bad as anything can get. The whole software thing has just been dead forever. And it was really in position to being so oversold that, you know, it could have gotten a bounce up to maybe 90 or even higher, but a lot of selling there. So what does that tell you that this is just really, really damaged goods and the fact that it can't bounce when when the market is doing what it's doing?
41:47Just be very, very careful, like with anything in software, even if you've got a name that is bucking the trend in software, I would just dial down the size because it's really hard to fight that. It would have to have a very unique story and fundamentals to be able to buck the trend when all this selling is happening because people will sell things like the IGV or the CIBR or the HAC or things like that. And then so your stock that's trying to buck the trend gets that selling from the ETF level. So it's not that they can't work, but they're just you're swimming upstream.
42:25Justin Nielsen:Well said. Totally agree. In a classroom of sodas, most stay quiet. Then there's Mr. Pibb, sweet cherry, bold outbursts, the kind of flavor that gets attention. Bold kick of cherry. Hey, yo, Mr. Pibb. Okay, let's take a look at some notable stocks from the week. A beautiful cup with handle breakout from Powell Industries that you took advantage of Webby. So nicely done with that. This stock up 26 % for the week. Look at that nice blue dot. So tell us a little more. Yeah. So I have a position in this. It's clearly extended, right? Because it's gone up 20 % within three days, really, or three or four days out of there.
43:14So you can't buy it here. But why I wanted to bring it up is I think this is the best looking chart out there. And I said that earlier this week on live. that uh so you want to focus in on those and see it are they still acting well like if this thing were to collapse unless it was some random news item like some you know the cfo leaves or something that really like really bad and it falls apart that um then that's okay it doesn't well it wouldn't be okay for me in my position but it would be okay from a market standpoint but if this were to roll back down, down to 200, because I always say half, you know, half the breakouts can pull back into the pivot.
43:55Bill would say that. I studied it. It's true. And in this position, that wouldn't be normal and natural. So really holding above the gap up there, that's what you would expect. And there's some back and fill in here would be normal and natural. Now, what I don't like about it, let's go to the, because I've always said this, let's go to the weekly. I said it's the best looking chart, but not the best looking fundamentals. It's got problems with the fundamentals, deceleration and earnings, pathetic sales. So I'm not crazy about it from that standpoint, but you look at the chart and it has acceptable fundamentals, but not great fundamentals and not even okay fundamentals.
44:40They really are problematic. And that bothers me. And I built a way oversized position earlier this week. And I brought it down to just an oversized position because of that. Because the fundamentals were really, really bothering me. But how does that relate to you guys? I would watch this and see if it can build like a webby shelf in there and something to trade against. Or if it goes sideways and has an upside reversal in there, something to trade against. Because right now, if you buy it here, you don't know you're wrong until that gap, the gap up low. And that's a long way down. And so you just don't want to be stretching.
45:20Justin Nielsen:Exactly. And I love what you said about the leadership, the stocks that led this week. We want to see them holding up. That's another big tell for the health of the overall market. Let's go to Fastly for a second because I was surprised at this one. Yeah, that was a surprising one. I did have a tiny position in this that I blew out early this morning and luckily didn't get hurt. But I was surprised because this was one of the ones that was really bucking the trend. Now, I was too busy to see why the news flow of why this happened. And yesterday I tried to get some support at the 21 day and that's where I was buying my position back.
46:00But it was small because it was weird that it was acting weak in this type of tape. Like, I was not expecting it to be down 20 % today. But if you get a lot of these in there, then you start getting worried. Now, I don't know what the news was. If it was a one-off type of thing that was just very specific to this, that's different. But you just don't want a bunch of those.
46:25Justin Nielsen:Yeah. But to your point earlier, sector, software, IRBware. All right. Let's go to fix. Okay. So another one, I've got a tiny position in this one. I don't think the base looks that great, you know, in isolation. But relative to what the market was doing, it looks really good. So there's two lenses you look at a base from. Just, okay, run-of-the-mill, a base that forms in like a sideways market or an uptrend or something that was formed in what we were going through. And how you can tell the difference is the RS line. So your RS line is your clue on this one as it is in almost all cases that it's leading the market.
47:13And so you want to go with your leaders. And this is not that far out of there, kind of stalling around a little bit at the 1600 level. I hope it goes sideways. I wouldn't even mind if it shook me out so I could get back in with a real size because it's a token shotgun position. but it's nice to see things like this. I would this weekend do a lot of screening, especially things that have had a big move this week, put them in a separate list and then just go and look and see, okay, are they breaking down? You know, what percent of them are breaking down? And Bill used to have us do that. It key points in the market.
47:50He would pull all 10 of us typically at 10 p.m. and say, okay, what percent of the leaders were still acting right in varying ways that we would look at it. And then collectively, he would get a sense for what the leadership was doing. And that's what I think folks can do at home. Just build your own. This is the key time to do a bunch of screening this weekend. Even if you're, you know, all the stocks that are way extended, you know, that's fine. You just put them in that list. Doesn't mean you're buying them, but you're observing them to see if they are acting right or not. Yeah.
48:25Justin Nielsen:Okay. Let's round things out for this segment with a look at PWR. This is Qantas services, a really nice upside reversal at the 50 day line. Then we had that gap on Wednesday and a nice gain for the week. Let's take a look at the weekly chart here at 4.4 % for the week. Now a little bit better fundamentals here. I know that we have that double-digit sales growth, perhaps not quite a fundamental powerhouse, but I would say ranks a bit better than Powell. Yeah, because I pay a lot of attention to sales growth because, you know, the earnings can, that's a whole different can of worms, but the sales, they are what they are.
49:10Like you can't, you know, there's nothing they can really do to adjust those. You can time different things with earnings. So I don't like that 7 % there. But why we're talking about this is just this is a kind of a slower stock, a lower ATR than the other ones that is more in position, even though that's not an official flat base. It's a flat base in spirit and it's not too far out of there. So that's all there really is to say about that. I know we went really long on that earlier segment so we can move forward.
49:45Justin Nielsen:I think it was worth taking a detailed look at some of those historical precedents. Oh, yeah, I think so, too. Let me share my charts. Okay, so this is our Bob Weir, take a step back segment. And so this is when we look at the weekly candles to get an expectation of what to expect next week. Now, the bad thing about this from an expectation is you can have almost anything next week. You hope for it to go higher and that would be normal and natural. But honestly, unless you come all the way down here to where we opened or even all the way down here from a candle standpoint, there's not much else you can say about that because when you have such a wide candle, lots of times you get that back and fill in there.
50:34So, you know, you wouldn't expect another candle up this big unless there was a total, you know, really, really good news flow. But it just tells you you had a really good week. And we had that setup week last week that was compelling. Let's look at the NASDAQ and the same thing there. We'll move on to our next chart. Here is the regression. We don't have enough time yet to draw a new regression line. So that's all there is to say there.
51:06Justin Nielsen:Time being if we want 50 trading days, ideally. Yes, we want 50 trading days. I'll start drawing a regression on there when we get about 35 days, and then we'll lock it in at 50. So we need a lot more time until we start drawing one on here. And you can see the power of the regression line. Once it falls out of it, you change your thinking and you're no longer in that uptrend until you get a new uptrend. And so we're in a new uptrend at this point by definition of having a follow-through day, but we don't have a trending market and you need a trending market, which you only get with time. So that was a good point, Allie.
51:47Let's go on to our 50 % retracement. So this one, you could do it from the highs over here to the low over here, nothing wrong with doing that. But I wanted to show a different way and how I'm looking at it is from the high of the day before the follow through day to the high of the follow through day and want to make sure that we stay in that northern hemisphere there. The 668.15 is the level. Let's go over to the NASDAQ. Same thing there, just using the day before the gap up. And so this is a 22 ,423. And that's not a hard line in the sand. It's just that general area you want to stay up there.
52:30So let's say we get some negative news, but not horrible news over the weekend. And we pull back in. I would just see, are we still living up here or do we start living down here? If we start living down there, I'm going to be backing away in a big way.
52:45Justin Nielsen:And you probably mentioned this, but I also I love how that 50 % right now coincides roughly with that 200 day. I didn't say that, but I wanted to say that, but I was trying to be brief. And that's why I love doing the show with you because you know it all. One day I'm going to do it on the opposite side. I'm going to learn how to do your stuff and I'm going to ask you questions. That'll be fun. We will do that. One day. On a freaky Friday. Yeah. Well, let's do that. That'll be maybe on like Halloween or something. Okay. So here are the levels that we have on Spy. Let me blow this up so we can see this a little better.
53:24our key line in the sand was that 619.29 we hope to not get down there but the really the low of this rally the 629.28 man if we get down there oh man we're in a world of pain so that level you don't want to be in when it gets down there so where do you want to look for the 659.61 that's the high of the gap up. That is what we'd be concerned with a close below that. And, you know, I'm pretty much probably going to be back into cash or very, very low exposure. So even though we look like we're in nosebleed, that, you know, this would be kind of my final line in the line in the sand on a closing basis.
54:09Let's see. And this was our old, that green line was our old line that we had from the highs over here around the October timeframe. That's why that's there. So I could put that to a yellow. Should have put it to a yellow. My mistake, sorry. So here, you could also look at the lows of the gap up as well as this. So I just, you know, I do these in a different way sometimes. And then the same thing here, we want to get through that level, which goes back to the October timeframe. Let's move on to the next one. This is a chart that I've been sharing over the last month or so. And I did do a full Webby Rambles on going over this.
54:51We now call it the Webinacci indicator. What are we looking at? All this mess, all these lines on the chart, what are we showing you? These are just a bunch of moving averages. The white line is actually the current price and all the others are moving averages. They're all Fibonacci numbers. So it's a 3, a 5, an 8, a 13, and you can Google all of them down to the 233. What is this line down at the bottom of the little blue line? That's very important. That's one of my indicators that it just tallies up. So when this white line is above this one, it gets a plus 1. And then when that line is above, when a 3 is above a 5, it gets a plus 1.
55:33If a 5 is above an 8 or a 13 or a 21 or 34, it gets a plus 1. So you just tally it up, and it can go from a 0 to a 45. And it's the trend of the line, so you've got that really U-shaped over here. And at this point, once we got over this ledge, that was a signal that we were turning. And now at this point, I really like getting through the 35 level. You don't wait for that. But once you get up there in good markets, you'll just be pinned to the top there. Let me, oops, let me zoom out. And oops, boy, it's been a long week. You can see in a good market how, you know, it just stays pinned up there pretty much between 40 to 45.
56:20So people will say that's when your lines are stacked properly. I think Harold likes saying that on IBD Live. So here, the NASDAQ, same thing. You can see how it was pinned to the top. That's when you're making your money. When it's going back and forth, that's when you're getting chopped up. And so this is just another visual that I really like to have to look at. Let's see what the IWM is doing. Wow, that's all the way up at 41. I do have a position in SPIQs and IWM. I should have said that. Sorry. Then we'll move on to your favorite one, Allie. How do you interpret this one? And what are we looking at?
56:59Justin Nielsen:Looking good. This is the keep it simple 21 day only. Not only do I like how we are back above that level, but it's now back in an uptrend. So both of those things are very good. We like to see it. Nice. And then the same thing there on the NASDAQ. Okay, let me stop sharing these charts and we'll move over to our, where did I, where is that one? Hold on a second. I'm sorry. You can talk. No worries. Anything you want while I try to do this. Well, the 21 day, we love looking at that as a timing signal. And for those who are newer to this, that's something that Webby came up with after a lot, a lot of research.
57:43Justin Nielsen:So we're very thankful that you did come up with that. Oh, thank you. And it's very widely used now. People are just like, oh, the 21 day, the 21 day. That's why I put my name on everything now, because I got sick of that. I really did get sick of that. It really, really irks me. It is what it is. But so this down here, the Webby RSI and why I put my name on that is measuring the distance between your low and the 21 day and expressed in ATRs, average true ranges over here. What you want in a good market is a wall of blue. That's telling you that your low is trending above your 21 day. That's a beautiful thing down here.
58:23When your high is underneath it, it turns into this burnt orange color. And that's a very negative thing. But you look for inflection points when it gets to a real extreme. This really didn't get to an extreme. An extreme is more like a three, but it still got up there pretty high. And so now we want to see this wall of blue continue. you. And the only way to do that would be for that low to stay above it. Now, when you start off in a new uptrend, what typically ends up happening in a healthy one is you will get a really stretched because, um, meaning this, this blue thing will get up to three or so early on.
59:07That's what you want to see as people don't believe it. And, you know, shorts are getting squeezed and, and, uh, that shows the power. It's up there, but it's not up as much as I would like it to be. Part of that is a product of the ATR has increased because of the volatility. So it's not in percent, it's in ATRs. So that's the downside to it. But it's also, you know, it just evens things out. Same thing here on the NASDAQ. We've got that wall of blue that is starting. At least we've got a couple bricks in that wall, Allie. Do you know that reference? Yes. Yeah, there you go. Okay. Well, was that a guess or was that you knew?
59:51Oh, I knew that one. Okay. All right. Just check in. Otherwise we'd have to talk more music. All right. So now here's our Bob Marley off high indicator. So what in the world are we looking at? This is measuring how far off the highs you are in terms of ATRs. So green is zero to four, yellow is four to eight, and below that is red. So there's two ways of looking at this. One, what is normal and natural? How has it been pulling back in? And you can kind of see that between about two and three ATRs off the highs where this one likes to settle, sometimes it gets a little bit more extreme. This was really bad down there.
1:00:35I mean, we were getting almost down to eight ATRs off the high. Now we're back up almost near only two ATRs off. So that's very healthy. Let's see the NASDAQ, same thing there. So what we want to see is once this kind of levels out, we want these to not pull back in more than this one, because each one has its different character. This one is closer to, you know, maybe three and a half, four ATRs, where it tends to get support. So that's what we would be looking for there. And oh my gosh, I think I sped up quite a bit. I'm very proud of myself. I give myself an A plus for not rambling on too much.
1:01:16Justin Nielsen:Yes, there you go. You leave that for the YouTube channel, Webby Fiddle. Yeah, all avoided I ramble. Yeah, I did some of them. Well, go ahead. No, no, no. So there are two things. If folks want more details on what we were going over at the beginning of the show, watch that. And it'll be released as they always are. It's Saturday morning at Austin time, 6 a.m., because the world revolves around Austin time. You used to live, you know, be a Texan. So you know what that's about. Now you abandon us. That's not very cool. And the other thing, because I don't want to forget because my brain is a little fried.
1:01:56What is going on with your daughter? I'm asking if you had something else you want to talk about, we could talk about that at the end. But yeah, everyone wants to know.
1:02:04Justin Nielsen:Let's give a summary and an action plan for folks, just because this was a long episode. But my daughter is now sitting unassisted for pretty long periods. And it's really cute. And she can turn pages of the book. She knows what time, the timing of when to turn the page when you stop reading it. Or you can even tell her, hey, can you turn the page? She knows to turn the page while she's sitting. So, yeah, we're very proud. Oh, my gosh. So what's her favorite book right now? Oh, she loves a lot of the Sandra Boynton books. So I don't know if you're familiar with those, but like Mubalala is one.
1:02:51Justin Nielsen:She has a lot. She has a lot of books, but I like their Made in the USA. Oh, that's cool. How about Edward the Emu? Oh, no. You need to say, I guess, audience, send in your favorite children's books. Edward the E.M. was sick of the zoo. There was nowhere to go. There was nothing to do. I read that almost every night to my kids. Oh, yeah. I know. I have about probably 20 books memorized. And Dr. Seuss was always good. Bernstein Bears were good. Those were good. Classic. So to summarize, that's wonderful. And we want to keep in touch until she's 18 and off. We'll be asking you every week. Well, I know you're a proud papa too.
1:03:32Yes, as all are. So what to do with the market. This weekend, you've got to do a lot of research. And I would use beta for your research, really get used to that. And I would screen for what was up the most, just broadly based, really just anything with the liquidity that you like, let's say$75 million volume is what I tend to use. I also will use as low as$25 million volume. That's in our tool that you can search for. And I would just do the highest closing range. So like an 80 closing range, meaning it's in the top part of it for the week and what was up the most. And I would put in that list, I would sort it by sector.
1:04:20So I would do the first one would be sector and then the second and you can lock that in on market surge and then the secondary sort would be the percent gain for the week and look at it in that order and and as you go through it i would just flag the charts that you like so we just have this f5 key on market surge and then that will put a little flag on it when you're done with that take all those stocks that were in your flag that you flagged and put a little green flag up on top then move those into a watch list, a special watch list for what was up the most this week that kind of looks interesting.
1:04:58Then every week or even every day, you can look at that and do that analysis of are those acting normal and natural? And if you start seeing a lot of them acting weak, then that's your clue. Now, another reason why I was getting so bullish is I've been working on this update to the Growth 250 for the better half of a, for a while now. And that'll be out in a few weeks. And you and I did a video on that last Friday on Good Friday. That'll be coming out soon. But in that, I was screening even more than I normally screen. And I was looking at the full universe that the Growth 250 was even bigger than the Growth 250, which now maxes out at 350 names.
1:05:40And I was just shocked at how many names were making it through before the follow through day. And that's not normal. If we were going into a bear market, you would not be getting that many stocks. And the reason why I designed the Growth 250 to, even though the name doesn't tell you that, it's never 250 names. It can go up to 350 now in the past. It was up to 300. And when in a bad environment, that comes down just like an accordion. It expands and contracts. And it gives you a signal for how much merchandise is out there. And we were maxed out at 350 this whole way behind the scenes with my new code on there.
1:06:26with over 30 screens going and all the secret sauce that was happening. And that is something that you can use, you know, as part of your analysis. And I always have. I strongly advise people to, you know, look at that and make it part of their normal weekend routine. So that's one thing. But also, as we say all the time, put a game plan together and email yourself. Because anything can happen next week. Over the weekend, you know, some crazy things can happen. We could fall apart next week. And if you're in up to your eyeballs like I am, you need to have an exit strategy. What are the things that you're going to sell first, second and third?
1:07:06To do that, rate all of your stocks from an A to a C. You probably shouldn't be owning anything less than a C. Right now, probably not anything less than a B. And then if you get a really bad day in the market, you want to sell your worst ones first. not what happens to be down the most now if it's going through a sell signal you want to blow it out but if it's just something that's everything is down and you don't know what to do there are a couple things you can do you can just reduce across the board i'll do that all the time where i'll just say okay i just i'm going to reduce everything by 10 percent you know so if i got a 25 position or a two and a half percent position or one and a quarter percent position i'm just going to sell 10 % of everything across the board if I don't know what to do.
1:07:51And then, but if I do and I say, okay, this is my A stock, like the Powell that I was looking at, I look at that as my A caliber stock. And I got a bunch of other shotgun positions. The shotgun positions are going to go first because those are B's or C's. And then that one's my A. So everyone should do that. The key is email yourself because if that happens and you're going to be like, you know, shocked, you just go back to your email, go, okay, this was my game plan. Let me see if that still makes sense. Sometimes you can always be flexible and adjust, but that's what I would say in summary.
1:08:27Justin Nielsen:Well, it was a monumental week, no matter what happens next. And we have a game plan. So thank you so much for that roadmap and that clarity, Webby. Really appreciate it. it is all right thank you so much webby and thanks everyone for tuning in that is it from us for this week but there's more ways to stay in touch with ibd and our latest thinking as well as webby's he mentioned his youtube channel webby 5150 and also the ibd youtube channel investors business daily we've got a lot great videos there including that podcast that webby was on with Justin. So check all of that out. We hope you have a great weekend.
1:09:11Justin Nielsen:Get prepared for another week ahead. We'll see you on the other side, everyone. Thanks so much.
1:09:31Hey, this is Telus Demos.
1:09:33Justin Nielsen:And I'm Miriam Gottfried. We're reporters at The Wall Street Journal and the hosts of WSJ's Take on the Week. It's a weekly show that gives listeners a leg up in the world of markets and investing. From the Fed's moves to market bubbles, we dive into the biggest deals, key players and business news ahead. If you're looking for more news and tools that you can use to help navigate the markets, consider becoming a subscriber to The Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.wsj.com slash take on the week to subscribe now.
From the publisher
Alissa Coram and Justin Nielsen walk through Friday’s market action and discuss key stocks to watch in Stock Market Today.
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