Rally Attempt Underway, But This Signal Is Missing; Dell, Sphere, Teradyne In Focus

2 Apr 2026 · 1 h 4 min · 25 chapters

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In short

Stock Market Today (Apr 2, 2025) discusses whether the market’s downtrend is turning, focusing on technical “trend change” signals (21-day/200-day levels, follow-through behavior, and key support/resistance). It also highlights ETFs and individual stocks showing relative strength despite Iran/straits-related headline risk and oil/inflation concerns.

Guests

Mike Webster (colleague “Mike Webster/Webby”)—IBD-style market technician emphasizing trend change checklists, pivot-based “power” setups, and risk-managed entries.

Key claims

  • Market is still below the 200-day moving average, so risk remains; however, the latest action suggests a possible shift.
  • Big up days in bear/intermediate corrections can be “nothing burgers” without follow-through and checklist confirmation.
  • A follow-through next week depends on news flow; distance to the 200-day is about ~2.1%.
  • Volume and “open weak/close strong” vs “open strong/close weak” are key intraday tells.

Notable examples

  • NASDAQ: reversed higher; discussion of a prior ~12% up day and subsequent digestion.
  • USO (oil): up ~11% same day; EQAL (equal-weight large stocks): strong, above key levels.
  • ETFs: IWM (small caps) regained 21-day; XBI (biotech) near top of list; EWZ (Brazil) looks constructive; VXUS (ex-US) still damaged.
  • Stocks: Dell, Sphere, Teradyne (relative strength/“held up” vs peers).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Market Condition Overview

1:20 to 4:23

Discussion about current market conditions and investor strategies.

“But, you know, I think that this market has been fascinating to cover.”

Major Indexes Performance

4:23 to 5:50

Analysis of major market indexes and their performance this week.

“And because I think that's the way that the majority of institutional investors look at things.”

Understanding the 200-Day Moving Average

5:50 to 8:44

Importance of the 200-day moving average in determining market trends.

“Good things tend to happen when you're above it and bad things tend to happen when you're below it.”

Navigating News-Driven Market Changes

8:44 to 11:26

Strategies for dealing with sudden market changes driven by news.

“Or if you're going to act, do it in a very tempered way, because that's normal and natural.”

Indicators for Trend Changes

11:26 to 14:00

Key indicators to watch for potential trend changes in the market.

“And so that's the risk that you've got to be willing to take if you're going to buy early.”

Market Positioning Near the 200-Day

14:00 to 15:25

Discussion on the market's positioning relative to the 200-day moving average and follow-throughs.

“You can have a big enough day to get up there.”

Interday Market Movements and News Impact

15:25 to 18:15

Exploration of interday market movements and how news affects price action.

“because you ran up to the 21 day and you stalled.”

Oil Prices and Market Sentiment

18:15 to 20:53

Analysis of oil prices and their implications on market sentiment and decision-making.

“day weekend of doing research and getting a watch list ready.”

Game Planning for Traders

20:53 to 23:24

Strategies for traders on preparing game plans and managing trades.

“It's just a stone's throw away from where we're at right now.”

Sector Insights: Small Caps and Biotechs

23:24 to 28:00

Insights on small caps and biotech sectors, including market behavior and ETF analysis.

“people only study the ones that worked, not all the ones that don't, didn't work.”
Show all 25 chapters

Market Overview and Analysis

28:00 to 29:00

Learn about the current state of international markets and the importance of selectivity.

“There's a battle right around that 21-day.”

Stock Screening Insights

29:36 to 31:22

Understand how to identify stocks that resist market downturns.

“So what I'm looking for is things that were – it's a big poker game, right?”

Analyzing Sphere and Market Trends

31:25 to 35:34

Discussion on the Sphere company and the challenges of trading story stocks.

“So having an entry point right here, you know, it's a bit too risky.”

Teradyne's Potential and Market Signals

35:35 to 37:34

Learn about Teradyne's setup and its significance in the semiconductor sector.

“So maybe one day we'll see the kind of fundamentals that we like to see.”

Weekly Chart Analysis

37:35 to 42:05

Gain insights into interpreting weekly charts and market expectations.

“One more for the audience before we go to Webby's charts, and that is Teradyne.”

Market Damage Assessment

42:05 to 43:34

Analyzing recent market lows and the bulls' response at critical levels.

“But what it's telling you is the bulls really stepped up here at the lows.”

Understanding Retracement Levels

43:34 to 45:18

Explaining the 50% retracement technique and its implications for market strength.

“This is probably the most important thing that we're going to look at today.”

Key Market Levels to Watch

45:18 to 47:08

Identifying critical market levels and their importance for future movements.

“You had the highs from January and our lows here.”

Innovative Indicators for Market Analysis

47:08 to 49:14

Introducing the Webom Natchi indicator and its role in evaluating market trends.

“Same basic thing, same basic areas on there.”

Evaluating Stocks and ETFs

49:14 to 51:59

Discussing specific stocks and ETFs to evaluate based on current market signals.

“Once you get through the yellow one, which is 35, that's kind of your warning zone and your danger zone.”

Understanding Market Dynamics

51:59 to 56:00

Analyzing market dynamics using various indicators and their implications for trading.

“So that's a position that we like to look at things.”

Market Analysis and ATR Zones

56:00 to 57:19

Learn about ATR zones and their implications for market movements.

“The green zone is within four ATRs of your high.”

Preparing for Follow-Through Days

57:20 to 59:06

Understand the importance of having a game plan for follow-through days.

“What stocks are you going to be looking to buy?”

Planning and Homework for Investors

59:07 to 1:01:06

Discover the value of planning and routine for market conditions.

“73, 74, of course, 1987, 1929, there are times where it can get really bad, but most of the time things work themselves out and then you end up moving higher.”

Personal Update and Work-life Balance

1:01:07 to 1:02:39

Hear a personal update about family life amidst a busy work schedule.

“This about market bottoms, all about market bottoms.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

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0:40Mike Webster:good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today for thursday april 2nd it's alissa quorum here and a mildly mixed trading day at the close in this shortened trading week on fresh headlines and digestion of the latest on the conflict in iran and joining me now to break down the action in the market this week and take a look at some stocks to watch is my colleague Mike Webster. Webby, always great to see you. Oh, it's nice to be seen and it's nice to be on with you. It's still like you're just back, fresh back, and we just missed you while you were gone. So enjoy that time frame until we get sick of you.

1:22Mike Webster:There we go. Well, I appreciate that, Webby. But, you know, I think that this market has been fascinating to cover. And so, you know, even though we all love the power trends, I think, you know, this is the time in the market where the IBD strategy and all of your research that you've done really is helpful for investors to try to spot the changing trends that are out there because it is a tricky time. So I think it's more important than ever to stay in step with the market. So that's what we're going to do today. Today is going to be an interesting show because we're really set up. I was very negative just a couple days ago.

2:10And well, as we go through the charts, we'll see why I'm not as negative. I've got an open mind, but we're underneath the 200 days. So we still have that to contend with, but we'll get into it. It should be a very interesting show.

2:22Mike Webster:Yeah, really interested in getting that updated point of view from you. So first, let's take a look at the major indexes. You can see the NASDAQ here on Thursday reversing higher, closing up two tenths of a percent on Friday after two solid up days off the bottom. So now we have three updates in a row here for the NASDAQ composite. The S &P 500 up one-tenth of a percent today. And you can see the upside reversal that took place there as well. The Russell 2000 on Thursday up six-tenths of a percent yet again. An upside reversal. And the Dow, which I know you don't care about, Webby. What's the Dow?

3:05Mike Webster:What's the Dow? We'll take a quick peek anyway. down a little less than two tenths of a percent, but also coming off of lows in a notable way here. So we have a very headline driven market. And to your point, things got pretty negative before a good reason with the deterioration beneath that 200 day line, that long term support level that we love staying on top of, but has the tide turned? It could be turning. Yeah, it's on the verge of it. Okay. So we have not had a buy signal yet, but we are now, with the way we closed today, today's action was very impressive, in my opinion. The earlier action that we had two days ago with that big update, I wasn't impressed.

3:58It was just, That was normal and natural. We'll get into that in a second for being in that position. Today was a key change. Doesn't mean that we're out of the woods because we don't have a follow through day. We're not above the 21 day. And the most important thing is that we're not above the 200 day. Everything else is like small potatoes when you're underneath the 200 day. Like it's, that's everything to me. And because I think that's the way that the majority of institutional investors look at things. Are you above the 200? Are you below it? Done a lot of research on it. And there's really kind of nothing better on a simple level than just using the 200 day.

4:41Now, not for our style of trading, of getting in and out and things, but from a different style of if you're running, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars, large assets, that 200 day is really, you know, kind of your best friend, kind of like what we use the 21 day. And some people use a 10 or an eight day or something like that. But that black line on there, you can see how when you, when you fall underneath it, and I would suggest that people go back and watch last week's show as well as the week before where we focused in on last week was the, the, the, on the weekly side. And I think the week before was on the daily side of when you're underneath the 200-day because it's a completely different animal.

5:23And it's taught to act differently underneath there. Everything is different under there. I cannot stress it enough. So we're still under there, but we're positioned in a better way now, which we'll talk about in a second. But since you've got the weekly on here, let's go back to that weekly and let's zoom out a little bit. And I just want everyone to kind of focus their eyes on when you're underneath that black line, which is the 40 week or the 200 day versus being above it. It's as simple as this. Good things tend to happen when you're above it and bad things tend to happen when you're below it.

5:57And that's really all you need to know. So when you're underneath it, you just go so much slower, even when there's things to be buying and you just want to load up. That's where you can really get chopped to pieces. And in fact, let's go to the 2025 low there and just talk about it because you brought up pre-show a few points that I thought were really worthwhile and something I think we should get into. So why don't you just restate what you were saying pre-show about that?

6:28Mike Webster:Well, obviously, different circumstances, different headlines. This was about all of the unfolding trade drama, but a very news-driven environment. So even though we did have a big news-driven day off of the lows with the NASDAQ up 12%, one of those days off the lows, you had to still temper your enthusiasm until we checked off those items on our trend change checklist. I mean, if you would have gotten in at the high of that day, we were still below the 21 day and we retraced a lot of that big move before we did ultimately get a follow-through day. So So I think that's something to keep in mind here where we can have very exciting, very tempting headlines, but gradual and really following these charts and looking for the close above the 21 day, the low above the 21 day, all of your trend change checklist items, Webby, I think is very important.

7:28Mike Webster:It's not going to play out exactly how this did because no to market is the same. But just, I think, a lesson to keep in mind, even if you do get really positive news in a news driven environment, doesn't mean it's necessarily off to the races without any sort of digestion or pullback. Excellent. I couldn't have said it better myself. I could have taken half an hour to say that, but I won't. Let's go to a couple of days on there. You don't have to change the date, but just point out that update that was up 12%. That's kind of like what we had earlier this week. You were in such a position where so many people, I think, were short, hedged, too light in the market.

8:12And then the narrative changes for a moment and you get this snapback. Most people call it an oversold bounce. Bill O 'Neill, the founder of IBD, did not allow us to use the word oversold. So, you know, even though my family wrote the dictionary, as I found out recently, I do have my one of my relatives did. They didn't. Yeah, seriously. Yeah. But anyways, when when you're in a position like that, you can have these big updates. And that's the whole point of the follow through system is to not act on those. Or if you're going to act, do it in a very tempered way, because that's normal and natural.

8:51If you look at the biggest up days, they happen during bear markets or intermediate corrections like that day. So you just, everyone gets excited about it. It's hard not to get excited about it because how does a market go up 12 % in a day? A lot of great stocks are up a bunch, 20 % in a day. So you can't ignore it, but you got to manage risk. probably what's more interesting to me is up there at the last marked high that 18 to 281 because that kind of looks like where we're at right now and so i think people should keep in mind that we're set up do a change date to that day happy to so that would be

9:40Mike Webster:325. So let's go there. Okay. So in fact, go back one more day because it's just so for everyone to walk through. Okay. So the prior day before this gap up, you had a nice little kind of mini upside reversal, but it was still in that trading range. So you don't, you know, you don't really take any action on it. But then you get this pop-up. Look at that massive volume. I mean, the volume was just off the charts that day. That is clean data. You got to trust your volume. Webby's kidding. I'm kidding. I said, if you're watching, you know. Okay. Those who know, know. If you know, you know, as the kids say.

10:23So you've got one signal there. You got a close above the 21 day, and you also had a follow-through day in spirit. So you didn't have the follow through day, you know, classic follow through day because the volume wasn't there. Now you had it the day before, but it doesn't look like it was up enough. But still, I would have taken action on that. What's good is then you use the low of that day as your line in the sand. So let's advance one day, one bar at a time. So this next next day, you know, it's okay, but it kind of tells you like, wow, man, maybe we aren't out of the woods. It's not a reason to sell, but it's not a reason to really increase your exposure.

11:06Let's say you went from 0 % exposed to 10 % or 5 % or 10 % exposed on the prior day. Well, this day, maybe you don't do any extra buying, or maybe you increase it by 1 % or 2%. So you're not plowing in. And you're waiting to see if that low can get above it, if you get other signals. Let's go forward one more day.

11:30Mike Webster:Like you said. And then there you go. And so that's the risk that you've got to be willing to take if you're going to buy early. Now, some people might want to just wait longer. There would be nothing wrong with being in a position like this, just saying, you know, I'm going to wait until I'm above the 200 day, period. Like, end of story. I'm not even going to follow a follow three day or the 21 day or 50 day or anything else. I'm just going to wait to be above the 200 day. I wouldn't have a problem with that. Now, you're going to miss out on a lot of things and you're going to miss out on probably the best merchandise because the best merchandise tends to go first.

12:08But if you've been chopped up a lot and you're just timid, there's nothing wrong with waiting there or just really dialing it way back until that happens. Let's fast forward like three months just to see how this played out.

12:26And again, if you waited for that 200-day, you left a lot on the table, but you're probably not getting, you know, you wouldn't have gotten chopped up along those bottoms where, you know, it was up 12 % one day, then down a whole bunch the next day. So just keep that in mind. You don't have to play when you're underneath the 200-day. This food for thought. So now let's go back to our current market. But wait, before you do that, everyone kind of focus in their eyes on that 18-281 timeframe and what that looks like before we switch. Okay, now we can go ahead and switch over. And you can see it doesn't line up exactly, but in that same spirit where you've got a close up near the highs, you're up by your 21 day and kind of bearing the lead where on Monday, because tomorrow's a holiday, obviously, on Monday is day four.

13:26So that's when we could have a normal follow through for up 1 % or more on an increase in volume from from the prior day. And that increase in volume will be very easy because, you know, today was a pre holiday weekend. So you can pretty much guarantee as much as you can guarantee anything in life that you're going to have a pickup in volume. So it's really just about the price movement on there. But can you get above that 21 day in a meaningful way? And I think we're probably about 3%. How far are we from the 200 day?

14:02Mike Webster:Let's check it out. We'll track price 2.1%. Okay. So that's not bad at all. You can have a big enough day to get up there. And then that would make me feel a lot more comfortable with a follow through day getting back through the 200 day. But as you keep mentioning the trend change checklist, that it's the first day. Man, I need a new name for that. You get your close above it. That's one signal. You get your low above it. That's another signal. And then three days above it. And of course, closing up on the day on each one of these. Then that's your last one. So there's a time element in there as well.

14:39So we won't be able to get all of those in one day for obvious reasons. But we're really set up to have that big, big follow through next week. It all depends on how the news flow is. But we've got three days to have this news flow happen. It could get really bad. It could get really good. That's going to dictate everything. But you have to keep an open mind that we aren't that far underneath the 200 day, that we can get there in a day or two. and even a big enough day, you could get up to the 50 day in just a couple of days. So we're in position. So you have to open your mind. I was very negative just a few days ago, even on that big up day.

15:22I was like, ah, this is a nothing burger. And yesterday was a nothing burger because you ran up to the 21 day and you stalled. There was nothing to write home about. Let's go to the interday chart because this is where you kind of had a change in tone. In a good market, you'll open weak and close strong. In a bad market, you'll do the reverse. You'll open strong and you close weak. So when we open weak today, I'm like, okay, well, this is a chance for them to step up. And you'll see in a little bit when I do my 50 % retracement, that that kind of was at an important level of where it stopped. and then you turned and rallied.

16:07And of course we had intraday had some positive news where you can see that spike up. And after that spike up, it just flatlined. And during that time, I saw some negative news come out. I haven't had a chance to verify the news or the exact timing of it, but it was late in the day in some things that happened with some data centers over and I think in Kuwait. And I don't want to mention the company's names in case the news I heard was wrong. But those stocks that were getting this news weren't going down. And the market was lifting as I was seeing this news filter out, which is exactly what you want to see.

16:48You want to see the market lift on bad news. And let's go to USO for a second. So this is at fresh highs, up 11 % on the day. and this is what everyone's worked up about. Like, why are people worked up? They're not worried about, in my opinion, as one person, not speaking as a firm or anything, but me, I think the world is worried about money and inflation and what the ramifications of, you know, the straits being closed and everything and how that flows through to the costs of goods around the world. They're not as concerned about another war. You know, we have wars going on right now, and it's terrible from a humanitarian standpoint, but I don't think that's what the world is concerned with.

17:35And that's why the market's been going down. It's about money. And when you have oil going up 11 percent and in the same time, let's go over to EQAL, which is the equal weight of the largest 1 ,000 stocks. And that went through the 21 day and is up near the 50 days. So this is your average stock. is moving nicely, you've got to be more optimistic. And it's hard because you're aware how bad things can turn and they can turn on a dime in a really bad way, but you're not exposed to this point, but you're just keeping an open mind. That means it's going to be a long three day weekend of doing research and getting a watch list ready.

18:19So are you prepared for Monday now? Maybe you do all that preparation and we get a big gap down, but still you're more prepared for when eventually we do firm up and get that follow-through day.

18:32Mike Webster:Exactly. I love how we are connecting the dots between the news background and the context, the environment, with the technical action. I think that's the really key context to keep in mind. And just to emphasize how if you have an upside reversal, when you have all of these negative headlines or these negative signals like the oil. Again, that's what everyone's been worried about, but we were higher on the day. So something is shifting, at least as of right now. And let's go back to what you originally brought up, the 2025. So just put a 25 up there. Okay, on this chart. No, on NASDAQ, yeah. On the NASDAQ.

19:20Mike Webster:Okay, nope, you're good. So we will pull up last year. And, you know, I go out to go out to June just so we can see the whole thing. So when you have that action down there, you know, at the bottom where where things are kind of all over the place with that news, it's what the market is doing is trying to put all the big fund managers and big analysts are trying to put in their spreadsheets the risk of the different things. Back then it was the tariffs. You know, everyone was worried about the tariffs. And as the news started trickling through, people could figure out like, okay, well, they can put a number on it.

20:00When there's no number to put in there and you go into a spreadsheet and you go, well, that could have a 1 % impact or a 99 % impact or anything in there. People don't know what to pay for things. And so they pay less for it. Once you can put a number in there, even if it's a high number, like 80 or 70, then things can firm up. And that's exactly what happened there. So let's go back to our current date. I think that that's, What could be happening now is people are saying, OK, well, the Iran thing, you know, the military options are, you know, that is what it is. And they've done a lot of damage there already.

20:36And it's really just about the straits and getting that opened up. And it's in everyone's best interest, the entire world's best interest to get that flowing again. And I think the market is kind of figuring that out. Now, if something really bad happens and this drags on, all bets are off. And that's why, again, I circle back to there's nothing wrong with waiting for that 200 day for that extra confidence. It's just a stone's throw away from where we're at right now. And waiting for that is, I think, sound.

21:07Mike Webster:Yeah. And it depends on your trading style and ultimately the price action of the indexes and the leading stocks in terms of how much exposure. But even if you are an aggressive, shorter term trader, it seems like going incrementally. What that means for each individual trader could be different, right, percentage-wise of portfolio. But checking those different items off of the trend change checklist I think helps with that incremental approach, even in the most bullish days that you may see out there. We're on the same page, Allie, as we always are. One thing that I would normally say at the end of the show, but I think it's worth people thinking about right now, is as you go through, just have a game plan.

22:04And with your style, because that's what you're talking about. Everyone has their different styles of trading. I have multiple styles that I trade, and I have different accounts that I trade different ways. And I don't think I'm unique there. I think a lot of people do that. and just have a game plan and either write it out or better yet, email it to yourself so there's documentation with a timestamp. And then you can, when you do a post analysis, let's say you're just gung-ho and you're like, oh, this is set up beautifully and I'm just super bullish and I can't even wait, I'm gonna buy in the pre-market.

22:40And then everything rolls over on you. You can go back later and say, okay, well, what was I thinking? and shouldn't I have tempered my enthusiasm there and done it in a more gradual way? Now, going all in at once is great if you're right, but how often is everyone right? Like in follow-through days, more than half of them fail. So you don't want, you want to do the incremental thing. It's not, there's nothing magical about a follow-through day. It's just a buy signal. Just like going above the 21 day, the 200 day, the 50 day, a marked high. just many other things. It's just a buy signal. It's a really good buy signal, but it's just a buy signal.

23:23And sometimes there is this thought about it that it's this mystical thing because people only study the ones that worked, not all the ones that don't, didn't work. And it's just an entry. And just like what we saw before with that last one is like, okay, you get a follow through day or a follow through day in spirit. You close underneath the low of that day, all bets for often you exit you know and that's just how it works well said all right well a couple more

23:50Mike Webster:charts to take a look at before we get to our three stocks so let's check out small caps let's take a little bit of a closer look here here's the russell 2000 etf iwm you know a quick trip below the 200 day but it has quickly regained that what are your thoughts on how the russell's acting? Well, I love a couple things about it. One, that it's above the 200-day. Two, that it just was only underneath the 200-day for a little bit. So it's kind of nice that it got that test in there so you could see like, oh, okay, there was some support there. And even better than that, I really like that it's back above the 21-day.

24:34And it looks like the left side of a base has formed. And so if you can picture in your mind, it's like, okay, I can see this rounding out and then being up near new highs in a few weeks. Like that would be normal and natural. Whereas if you're looking at something that's got a lot of damage on it, you go, have I ever really seen something come straight back up from there? Let's pull up, what is like IGV? Let's go there for a second. I haven't looked at this today, but you couldn't picture in your mind this thing going back up through 120 in two weeks. Like that would be insane. Like anything is possible in life, but that would be really unusual to get back up near new highs in a blink of an eye like that.

25:18Let's go back to the IWM. And with that same thing in mind is like, okay, could this get back up to new highs in a couple of weeks? Yeah. You've seen that all the time. So that also helps with your analysis is what is setting up that's in position? Where is the money flowing to? And it seems to be going into the small cap area and the mid cap area as well. So, you know, that is very constructive. Yeah.

25:46Mike Webster:Well, that's a great segue into our next chart. Money has been flowing into the biotech sector. Here's a look at the XBI Spider Biotech ETF. Had a great week. So what happens there is that lots of times within the biotech area, when there's some mergers and acquisitions that happen, people get excited about that space because that's pretty much how people play that space. They want to either get an FDA approval or just have their company get bought out. So there's one way to play it is just buy a bunch of those little ones and hope that you don't have the landmine. but most of us just like to go with an ETF like XBI is kind of the easiest way to go.

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26:28And that's set up in position. And I've got to give kudos to Ken and Dave, a hat man who did a great job with leaderboard having this on the list for a long time. And I think they added to it this week. It looks in position. It's near the top of my list of an ETF to buy right now. So you want to have merchandise if you get a follow-through day on Monday, what are you going to buy? And this would be one of the things I would look at.

26:57Mike Webster:Okay. Let's go to EWZ. Not Z, EWZ keyboard. Let's go there. So this one is looking really good. And I was looking through the holdings and not all the stocks looked good there. But the fact that that, look at the RS line's action while the market has been falling apart. and it's never even got close to its 200-day, just went underneath the 50-day for a little bit. And its low is above the 21-day. And it's like a flat base, but it looks like it's a cup type of little mini flat base. And I think it looks great if it can take out the highs from yesterday. I think it's worth a shot. And then you can just use the 50-day as your exit.

27:44Mike Webster:All right, one more ETF, VXUS, and that's VXUS. This got hit really hard a couple of weeks ago. So on the road to recovery, it did manage to stay above the 200-day line. But more work to be done here, Webby. There's a battle right around that 21-day. Yeah. So I wanted to really have this in contrast with the Brazilian one because the Brazilian one looks so good, whereas this one looks still damaged, and especially with that big gap down on the left side of this base that it's forming. I mean, that is a lot of damage. And this is broad base, right? As broad base as it can get. It's the world excluding the U.S.

28:30So it's just telling you that before we were in this kind of market where anything international was working, now you have to be more selective. And we don't have to go there, but the Argentinian ETF looked good. Brazil looked good. So you have to be a little bit more picky, but at least there's merchandise out there. On the positive side, at least it's held above the 200-day, whereas NASDAQ and SPY and a lot of the other things went through the 200-day. Experience a membership that backs what you're building with American Express Business Platinum. Get two times membership rewards points per dollar on eligible purchases in key business categories, as well as on each eligible purchase of$5 ,000 or more on up to$2 million in eligible purchases per calendar year.

29:20Mike Webster:American Express Business Platinum. There's nothing like it. Terms apply. Learn more at americanexpress.com slash business dash platinum. Okay, well, now let's check out some stocks that made it through your screen. So in this type of environment, Webby, I know you look at a lot of screens, but what stood out to you about the stocks that made it through your screen of, okay, these are in contention for featuring on the show today? Yeah. So what I'm looking for is things that were – it's a big poker game, right? So when there's a market correction or a bear market or any, even just a couple really bad days in the market, what holds up is a tell, like in poker terms.

30:13And so this thing, if you can zoom out a little bit, you can probably see that flag there. It was up over 20%. Yeah, 21 looks like, yeah, 21%. Now you can zoom back in now out of that pivot. And that's a very important thing that Bill came up with back in the early 60s of what we have is this power from pivot, meaning if it goes up 20 percent within three weeks, we put that little flag on there to tell you that it's something special, potentially special. You saw the last flag. It went up 20 percent and then it formed this big base. So it's not perfect, but it's something that you pay attention to, especially while the market is doing what it's been doing.

30:56So it held in there essentially two weeks tight. Now, Bill and I did a lot of work on two weeks tight. We don't really talk about it much. Everyone here is about the three weeks tight, but two weeks is relevant as well. So you have two weeks tight out of that base, holding up there like that. And it's a big liquid name, one that we can all understand and everything. So this is near the top of my watch list. Now, let's go to the daily. uh in the tricky part is how in the world do you get into it because where do you know you're wrong you know you're wrong down at the i'm not going to come next friday i don't have to be here i i could i could be relaxing you can come it's okay be enjoying my weekend but ali you know okay so that's exactly right right there at that line that's where you know you're wrong and you're pretty far from that.

31:49So having an entry point right here, you know, it's a bit too risky. Sometimes I'll just stretch and buy something out of position when you get a follow through day. And I did see Bill do that too, but you have to have, you have to have a line in the sand and you're not going to want to let it go all the way down to that 21 days. So you can just do a risk. You're going to just say, okay, I'm going to take a max 3 % loss or a 5 % loss, or just don't make it more than a 7 % loss. And you can buy something anywhere. Now, that's not a habit you want to get into, but sometimes there's a tool in the toolbox you got to grab.

32:26And I would see Bill do that more often than you would think. So this is a potential leader, and I would really pay close attention to it. But it's going to be tricky to get into it.

32:39Mike Webster:And not only is it holding up incredibly well, you also have the accelerating fundamentals. So, you know, the last quarter, some really good numbers. And we saw some power on that day in reaction to the report. So well said notable things there. OK, Sphere, which you have been to the Sphere. And I can't wait to go back in October because who's playing in October? her the metallica are you kidding me come on just because you're a mother now yeah you you said my baby daughter should go see metallica yes she you should take her but just put a little ear earmuffs on her um so the reason why i brought this one up is some of your best merchandise breaks out before a follow-through day we don't even know if we're going to get a follow-through day but with that in mind this was you know launching on you know shame on me i bought a little bit on Wednesday when, when it was starting to move, when we were having that big update and I'm like, eh, this is too wide and loose in here.

33:47It's not really an ideal entry point because it wasn't. And so I just backed out of it with like being flat or something on it. Now I'm regretting that, but honestly I would have done the same thing again because it was just a mistake to buy it. Uh, but this, the power, uh, because of what the market was doing, um, if the market was fine, and it wasn't just a day one, then buying it there would have been ideal. So it's up and out of there now. So what does that tell you? You put it on a special watch list and you wait for an entry point. And that might not give you an entry point for a few months if it ends up working out.

34:26But this, and going back to the fundamental thing, this one's tricky on the fundamentals because I think it costs a couple billion dollars to build the place and they charge a freaking arm and a leg for their tickets. And even with all of that, I mean, the ticket prices are ridiculous. They need to figure out some way of reducing it. But the sales are all over the place and the earnings are all over the place. So this is not an IBD methodology stock. This is a story stock that has some of the elements that we have. But from a classic standpoint, those earnings and sales are too all over the place for it to be a classic one.

35:05But it doesn't keep me from trading it because, you know, I'm fine with story stocks. But a story stock, when they implode, they can really implode. So you just got to be careful on the on the way out because fundamentally sound stock will have at least a floor where kind of the value people will get in there or the guard people growth at a reasonable price. People will get in there when you have a story stock. If something turns negative in the story, there is like it's an elevator down. So you just have to be careful with those.

35:37Mike Webster:Yeah. So maybe one day we'll see the kind of fundamentals that we like to see. But until then, you just have to know where you're buying. So you are taking your baby to Metallica, right? Yeah, exactly. Yeah, we'll contribute to your revenue growth. There you go. So this monthly chart, just really quickly before we move on, I know you love looking at all the time frames. So I just wanted to note a quick look at the monthly and just that power that we've seen. Yeah, I love that monthly. When you look at enough monthlies, this looks like the beginning of a multi-year move. Like that's what they look like at the beginning.

36:17And that's why people should go back and study model book stocks and have a multi-year move and then go and do it on each timeframe. Don't just go on dailies. Do it on weeklies for sure. and then do it on monthlies as well. And this is the first innings if this is going to be a model book stock. And we'll see how it plays out, but folks should just study those. It's really worthwhile. Let's think of one like they had a huge move, like Monster Beverage. Let's go there for a second on a monthly.

36:51Mike Webster:And I'll have to zoom out, so bear with me. Yeah. So look at that when it came out of, yeah, we'll have to do the silly best fit. Came out from down there. And at first, you know, it would have looked like, oh, wow, that's in nosebleed territory. But then it gets up a fair amount and then it kind of changes the angle of ascent. So that's very normal, you know, what happened there. This powerful move up and then it goes at a different angle. Let's do another one that was ISRG that had a lot of big moves like that. You know, same thing. The initial move and then it goes at a different, at a different angle.

37:28And there's a million of them. But I know we've got an hour-long show, and we're 37 minutes into it, so I'll shut up.

37:35Mike Webster:I love these little asides. Great education there. One more for the audience before we go to Webby's charts, and that is Teradyne. This semiconductor equipment group is still highly ranked here, number five, out of the 197 groups that we currently track and setting up here potentially. I know it's interesting in the chip sector because over the last week or so, it seems like we've seen a little bit more damage in this leading area. So the question now is, can they get back in that leadership position? And are we going to see some nice setups here? seems like there's going to be winners and losers.

38:26Mike Webster:And the setup here for Teradyne, as of right now, looking pretty solid. Yeah, so there's a key thing on here that I want people to focus on. So let's pull up the NASDAQ for a second.

38:44Okay, focus your eyes on four days ago at that low, and then what it looked like a week or two before. So a really fresh, fresh low there. Pull up SPY. Same thing there. Pull up SMH.

39:06Not as bad there, but still quite a bit lower than that last marked low, the 374.16. Now let's contrast that with Terodyne. and look at the low from a few days ago was so much higher than the prior one. That is a huge tell, like what we're talking about with Dell and Sphere, that it held up. Now, it doesn't mean it's going to work out, but that had every excuse to come down and form kind of a double bottom at that point, which then it would have gone down to underneath the 263 for a proper double bottom, but didn't. that was what you needed to know. Didn't mean that you buy it there, but I love the line that you drew.

39:52I think that's an excellent way of getting into it. And another way of looking at this, now it's a little bit unusual, but it's kind of like a mini cup with handle where we've got this is the handle. It's not textbook. It's not long enough. It's got problems all over the place, but that's how I'm looking at it. And you could still use your original line with that or the horizontal line or even the high of yesterday as your buy point. And if I were buying it from there, I would use today's low as my exit and then just position size it accordingly that I would be comfortable with taking that type of loss.

40:33But this is what you're looking for. Now, I don't know the story behind it and why this one is acting so much better than the other ones, but that's what a three-day weekend is for. Exactly.

40:43Mike Webster:There you go. So, all right, let's get those mosaic tiles going, Webby. Okie doke. Let me get this up. Let's see.

40:56Can you see it?

40:58Mike Webster:Yes, we've got it. All right, we're going to take a step back and start off with the weekly charts and the weekly candles. Let me blow this up a little bit. And this is the part where we look at a bunch of different charts and we just focus on that one chart and let it tell us a story. And then at the end, we're going to put all those pieces together. And like she said, the mosaic, we just put this picture together and of what would be normal and natural next week. So this is a very good candle. And why do I say that? And let's just blow this up even more so people can see it. That we shook out below last week's terrible candle.

41:35I mean, last week's candle was as bad as it gets. So your expectation was for it to go lower. So it acted within expectations because at one point during the week, it did go lower than there. And then your body, which is the blue area, that's the distance between where you open for the week and where you close. And that being so large, that's really, really constructive. Now, what's not good about it is the fact that that body is inside the body of last week. So it didn't make up for the damage that we had last week. And our high is less than last week. But what it's telling you is the bulls really stepped up here at the lows.

42:15So if we breach that low again, then, man, that could get really ugly because they really kind of stepped up and supported it there. Let's look at the NASDAQ. And same basic thing here. Same basic chart undercut. But so again, this gives you, by just looking at this, gives you the expectation that this next bar should be higher, like up in here. Like if you were to just look at this and say, what would be normal and natural? A bar up in here, you know, even up to 22 ,700 for the week, you know, that would be, I'd look at that and go, oh, yeah, that's what would be kind of normal there. Not saying it's going to happen, but that's what you're doing in your mind.

43:01So let's look at the next chart that we have. And this is our regression. Well, we don't have a regression line to use, but it's just, I think this one was such a good example of when you break, when you throw out your regression, which we would have done around in this area, that's really a sign that you really need to back away. And every time I look at these, I go, man, why didn't I get even lighter and more defensive when you break that? So you're always living and learning. And the same thing here with the NASDAQ on that regression. Let's move on to the next one. This is probably the most important thing that we're going to look at today.

43:40So the 50 % retracement. And I did do a Webby Rambles on this topic. And so you can watch that on my YouTube channel, Webby 5150. 150, but let's go through this. This is a technique that I use on intraday charts, up to monthly charts and everything in between. And on one chart, you can use it in multiple places. So let's see how we've been looking at it, where we were looking at this high here in February and then the low that we had recently. And where is your midpoint? Your midpoint is the 663.56. So with that, what is that telling you is when you're in the lower half of that, you're in a weak position.

44:20When you're living in the upper half, you're in a strong position. So we still remain in a weak position given that backdrop. But now let's get rid of that and look at just what we had this week because you can do this on so many different timeframes. Looking at the low that we had this week and the highs that we had this week, that we are still above the 6 ,4, 3 ,90, the midpoint. And I was looking at that today. And this isn't like a 21-day moving average or a 200-day moving average where it's kind of a specific point. This is an area. And the fact that we were able to, on that selling this morning, still stay above that was another tell that the market isn't as bad as, you know, really I was thinking it was.

45:11At this moment in time, given the news that we have right now, but the 643.90 becomes an important general area. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. And the same thing here, I'll zoom out. You had the highs from January and our lows here. So 22 ,339 was the midpoint there. We're still in the lower hemisphere of that, the southern hemisphere. But if we get rid of that, oops, if we get rid of that and just focus on this week, it was the same thing. It came right down today, almost down to that line, the 21 ,336, and was able to live the rest of the day in the northern hemisphere of this. So this is a giant baby step in the right direction.

45:58I can't wait for your baby to have baby steps. We're going to hear about that.

46:02Mike Webster:I know, yeah. Sooner rather than later. But, you know, you've got to do one thing at a time. Okay, so now we're doing our levels. and I removed a bunch of the noise that was on here and kind of cleaned this up a little bit and just kept the important levels on there. There's more things going on. On the upside, when we're going to get excited is really when we take out the highs here, the October highs, and that kind of coincides with this 50-day over here. So the 673, so that's a goal to get to, but that'll take some time to get there. Besides the moving averages and things that we want to get back above, that's an important line.

46:42Then on the downside, the area that we were able to go back through today, which is the low from November, and there's also the low from October was in that same general area. So we were able to get back above there. That's important. Since we made such a stand this week, this week's low becomes vitally important, the 629-28, really, really important. and we'd need to hold that. Let's look at the NASDAQ. Same basic thing, same basic areas on there. And the 21 ,983 becomes an important level. And you could have that a little bit different. You could use a little different value and use the November 21st low, or you could use the low from October 10th.

47:33But in that general area is what you want to get back above. Let's go to the next one. Okay, this is, I tried to change the name to it, didn't want to take, but as Julie in Hawaii renamed it for me, the Webom Natchi indicator. And I did an episode on this recently, a couple weeks back, that explains this in greater detail. So I'd watch that if you want to know what's going on here. But these are just a bunch of moving averages of a SPI. The white line is your current bar. and so I just turned it into a line chart. And this thing down on the bottom, all that's doing is it's just measuring, it's adding up all of these that are above, that anytime a short-term moving average is above a longer-term moving average, it gets a point and it just tallies them up and it maxes out at 45 and you can go down to zero.

48:28And so you just wanna see where is it and is that turning? So it's starting to turn, but it's not really making a material turn yet but it's going in the direction that we would like to see a little bit but you know nothing to write home about um quick question webby

48:46Mike Webster:yeah and i'm sure you answer this in your long form video but that green zone that you have there do you see that that at times lines up with your power trends or when you get a crossover over? Does that tend to line up with the timing? You know, I'll have to go back and look at that. That's a good question. Typically what ends up happening is, hold on, let me go back to this and zoom out a little bit. When you're having a power trend, as we were having up in this area, you're pretty much maxed out at the 45 to the 40 to 45 zone and you'll come down and test it test it a few times like you did here but i should do an overlay on there so that's a really good idea so i'm going to jot a note down to do a power trend with a webinacci um and see the overlap but Generally speaking, you're going to be having those power trends when you're locked in up here in your highs.

49:52Once you get through the yellow one, which is 35, that's kind of your warning zone and your danger zone. You can see that like over here as you started falling through it on looks like February 24th. You know, that was well before the damage got really bad. But you also have to keep in mind, nothing is perfect because during this correction in this time frame, it came through even through the red line and was able to bounce back. But very good question. Very interesting. I just haven't had the time. I've been a little busy.

50:24Mike Webster:I know you've been a little busy because, yeah, the power trend last year started sometime in May. Justin, or you may know the exact date. Justin may know it off the top of his head. But, yeah, it just might be interesting to see if it's still in the yellow or when it gets in the green as that power trend is starting, just to have that convergence of signals. Yeah, I think that's a great suggestion, and I've got to figure out a way to overlay it on there. And so really, really, really good point. I do have another indicator that I just have to dust off once I'm done with my work stuff that goes along with this.

51:03It's even better. And I'm naming it my Mojo indicator just because I love cool names. So now here's your NASDAQ and same basic thing. It's down at a nine. But let's look at some other things. Let's look at the EQ. What is it? No, EQ. Yeah, EQAL.

51:24Mike Webster:Yeah, EQAL. Okay. So here, this is already going back up through, you know, it's at 33. And what was one of the other ETFs that we were looking at? We looked at EWZ, the Brazil. EWZ. Okay, let's look at that one. And that's already back up at 45. And then there was one that we were going to, we were thinking about talking about was the UFO. And that's up at 45 as well. So this is a way of just, and eventually we'll get this in market surge, but we just have to get through one thing at a time. And those are the ones you're wanting to look at. And let's look at that. What were the stocks? It was Dell.

52:04Mike Webster:Yeah, Dell. Dell, that's a 45. Sphere. That's a 45. And Teradyne. I think I remembered them. Well, I actually wrote them down. So, and those are at 45. So that's a position that we like to look at things. We don't like to look at them when they're damaged. So the last one, your favorite one, just looking at the 21-day, this blue line, getting rid of all of the noise and just saying, is our low above it or is our high underneath it? So today our high is underneath it, but just a little bit. We came from way down here to, you know, right up against it. Let's look at SPY as well. and same thing there.

52:48Let's stop sharing. And I'm going to, um, oops, where did that go? Sugar in the morning. Hold on. I'm not very good at this.

52:57Mike Webster:Sugar in the morning. I don't have sugar. I, I, I intermittent fast every morning and I know I don't, I don't have sugar. Um, I stopped the sugar stuff. Well, at night, you know, I can be bad at night. Okay. So, um, let's move this around and you can see these charts now, right? Yeah. Okay. So here's the Webby RSI and this is SPI on there. And the measurement down here, this is your first time. This is just measuring in terms of average true ranges. So this is one average true range, two and three, and it's measuring the distance versus the 21 day. When it's blue down here, it means your low is above your 21 day.

53:41When it's this burnt orange, it means Your high is underneath there. You don't want to see orange. You want to see blue. You want to see a wall of blue. Like we were talking about the power trend that started in May. That also you'd see just by definition because the power trend is using the low versus the 21-day as well as some action with the 50-day that they always coincide, right? You're not going to have a wall of blue or you're not going to have a power trend and not have a wall of blue. So this is a type of market where it's forgiving and you can do shotgun type of stuff and, you know, you can take on a lot of risk when you're in a position like we are now where your high is underneath it.

54:23You've got to completely change your mindset and be more on the, you know, conservative side of things. Now, why I wasn't that impressed with the move that we had up earlier this week on Tuesday was because we were in this, quote unquote, oversold condition.

54:43Mike Webster:So having a bounce back on news, I was really expecting a bigger day than what we had. So it was kind of a nothing burger. So that's why I was using this for that context. Let's look at the NASDAQ and the same basic thing there. Now, let's contrast. We don't normally do this, but let's look at the stocks that we were looking at today. So Dell, that's a wall of blue already. And you can use this on individual stocks, not just on indexes. Then Sphere, got a little blue there, a little step of a blue, not a wall. And then Terodynia, you don't have it there. So out of those, the Teradyne, when it was moving, look at that wall that you ended up having.

55:31And what was the EQAL was the other one we were looking at. And that one never got truly into that oversold condition down there. We'll look at one last thing. This is our Bob Marley indicator, my daughter's favorite. And this is just measuring where you are versus your high. And so with this, there's two ways I look at it. I look at it in either, are you in the green zone, yellow zone, or red zone? The green zone is within four ATRs of your high. Yellow zone is four to eight. And the red is below that. That's one way. So we're in the yellow zone, cautionary. But more than that, I look at where it likes to kind of rest or pull back down into how many ATRs off your high.

56:21is normal. So when you look at this one, it tended to, you know, get kind of, let's just call it between two and three ATRs off of its high is where it would stop. Sometimes a little bit more, but generally speaking in that area was where it would be a normal pullback. Once you got over here, it became excessive and then that got really ugly there and it could, you know, really could get a lot worse we saw what happened over here um got down to 10 atrs let's do this one and the same thing with the with the nasdaq way off there let's take a look at eqal and that's you know almost back

57:02Mike Webster:in the green zone there so we said a lot we did so a quick summary for everyone sounds like a lot of homework to do over the weekend, get the game plan ready for that if-then scenario, right? If we do get a follow-through day in the market, what's the action, right? What stocks are you going to be looking to buy? How much exposure? Where you're setting your stops? All of that. Any other words of wisdom, Webby, as we wrap? Yeah. So what I would say is you want to have maximum levels. So you don't want to necessarily say, OK, if I get a follow through day on Monday, I want to go X percent in because you don't know the quality of the follow through day and you don't know the position of what's going to be there.

57:52But I would say no matter what, I don't want to go more than X percent. And that's a personal thing based on your experience and how much you understand follow through days and the risk involved and everything. So find a level. Let's just say it's 30 percent. You don't want to go more than 30 percent. Doesn't mean you even have to get close to 30%, but at least you have an end goal. You go, okay, well, if I can't go more than 30 % and I've got 10 stocks I wanna buy, well, okay, well then probably a 2.5 % position per stock makes sense. And maybe I only end up buying two or three of them. But at least you have a game plan.

58:29You don't go in and go, I'm just gonna start buying. And before you know it, you're 200 % long. Like that can be really problematic unless we just go straight up, then you'll be like, oh, you know, but you don't wanna get lucky. You wanna do it the right way. because luck cuts both ways, you know, good luck and bad luck. And just don't count on luck. Just count on doing it the right way and learning methodology. Because if you're going to be trading for a number of years or decades, this happens all the time. You go through intermediate corrections. You go through bear markets. The world is always coming to an end.

59:00And you have to be aware, because sometimes the market does come, you know, the world does come to an end. 07, 09, 2002, 73, 74, of course, 1987, 1929, there are times where it can get really bad, but most of the time things work themselves out and then you end up moving higher. And this is kind of feeling that way, but we'll see. It's just a few days of good action. We need a follow through day. We need to get above the 21 day and the 50 and the, or really the 200-day, like I was saying. It's really, for me right now, it's all about the 200-day before I start, you know, using that gas pedal in a big way.

59:42Yeah.

59:43Mike Webster:All right. Well, a lot of great stuff to be keeping in mind for the week ahead. Just a reminder for everyone that the stock market is closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. We hope everyone has a great Easter weekend and the team will see you back on Monday. So with the market closed, unfortunately, no IABD Live. We will miss you all and no Stock Market Today video. Hence why we are doing our weekly wrap-up today. That was not nice. So I have two things. The first thing, just want to say, wish everyone a wonderful long weekend. Do your homework. Email yourself. I said it at the beginning of the show.

1:00:25Just a reminder, email yourself with your game plan. Get into a routine of doing that, even if it's just once a week. Really daily is ideal, but at least once a week. It'll make you feel so much more comfortable because if all of a sudden you walk in on Monday and we're up 3 % or we're down 3%, you'll just go and say, okay, when my mind was clear, what did I say I should do? Now, always feel comfortable adjusting from there, but do it and have a reason. You know, just go, OK, well, I didn't think this was a possibility. And so I didn't plan for that. And then next time, plan for that, plan for everything.

1:01:02So that's one thing I did. Just because of the condition that the market is in right now, I did record a Webby Rambles on for this Saturday. This about market bottoms, all about market bottoms. So I'd suggest people watch that. It's on my YouTube channel, Webby 5150. and then some other things to just note in a couple weeks. I'm going to be on Justin's podcast, on the IBD podcast on the 8th. So I'm really excited about joining him for that. So that should be a lot of fun. And there was one other thing, very, very important. What's going on with your baby?

1:01:41Mike Webster:You're too kind, Webby. Well, she is starting to say mama now. For me joking about it last week saying, Dada, if I didn't love the guy as much as I do, I would have been upset. But I was reading that apparently it's typically not intentionally spoken either mama or Dada until 11 to 14 months. Maybe it is only seven months. So, you know, jury is still out there, although I am noticing that when she does say mama, it is when she needs something. so I think there's something to that it's not just random in my at my heart and in my no I think I think you're I think you're absolutely right and are you enjoying it oh I love it so much she's the best thing that's ever happened to us so yeah I knew that was going to be the answer but I thought that ask anyways yeah but you know i love this gig too so you know this is i i spend my days doing this and uh nights and weekends with the baby so it's a good balance much yeah well thanks you're too kind that's the update yeah well thanks webby and we will see you next week on our Friday SMT.

1:03:03Mike Webster:That is it from us, everyone, for this week. But we will see you Monday morning on IABD Live. As mentioned, investors.com slash IABD Live for all the details. We'll see you then. And we'll also see you Monday after the close. Have a great Easter weekend, everyone.

1:03:56Mike Webster:Thank you. Thank you.

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Alissa Coram and Mike Webster walk through this week’s market action and discuss key stocks to watch in Stock Market Today.
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