Stalling And Sector Rotation, What Does It Mean? StoneCo, Toll And Micron In Focus

5 Sep 2025 · 1 h 7 min · 25 chapters

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In short

Market “stalling” and sector rotation after a jobs-report-driven shift in Fed expectations (rate-cut odds changed), with money rotating from mega-cap tech into small caps and homebuilding/interest-rate-sensitive areas.

Guests

Mike Webster, senior market strategist at Baird (co-host).

Guest background

Mike is a swing/position-trading-focused strategist who tracks sector/ETF rotation and uses chart-based “stalling” and regression/channel frameworks; he also discusses specific swing-trade setups and “lines in the sand.”

Key claims

(1) Stalling = price advances but then closes flat/near highs without follow-through, often signaling distribution; expectation is potential move lower if it fails. (2) Russell 2000 (IWM) and homebuilders look strongest, helped by falling long-term yields and easier credit assumptions. (3) Mega-cap leadership is mixed (Google strong; Microsoft/Broadcom risk of “Microsoft-like” fade).

Notable examples

Toll Brothers (cup-with-handle breakout), DHI (homebuilder exposure), StoneCo (Brazil fintech chart strength vs Visa/Mastercard weakness), Micron (data storage/semis rotation), Broadcom/SMH strength, Home Depot/Lowe’s, and defensive/real-estate strength (XLV/XLP/XLRE).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Market Overview and Job Report Insights

0:40 to 2:31

Discussion on the jobs report and market stalling with Mike Webster.

“I've looked at so many charts, and man, I'm going to have to look at so many more this weekend to get a handle on this rotation.”

Sector Rotation and Treasury Yields

2:31 to 4:27

Exploration of sector rotation and changes in Treasury yields post-jobs report.

“I'm going to go ahead and share my screen, and we can talk a little bit about where we finished for the day.”

Analysis of Key Stocks: Google and Microsoft

4:27 to 7:09

In-depth look at the performance and outlook of major stocks like Google and Microsoft.

“And also what it kind of changed for the outlook for the rest of the year, looking at potentially, you know, a 75 basis point cut overall by the end of the year.”

Mixed Signals in Major Stocks

7:09 to 7:47

Discussion on mixed performance of major stocks including AMD and NVIDIA.

“And then you've got, you know, the, some of the other megas, like an Apple that was just, you know, looking somewhere in between, like not strong like Google, but not weak like Microsoft.”

Evaluating Market Dynamics and ETFs

7:47 to 10:10

Discussion on the impact of market dynamics on ETFs and overall market health.

“And I think this has a long way to go because this is the, you know, let's go back to the weekly for a second.”

Sector Analysis: Energy and Financials

10:10 to 14:01

Analysis of various sectors, focusing on energy and financials performance.

“but really didn't get going, you know, and it's still a little middling.”

Understanding Stalling in the Market

14:01 to 17:08

Learn about market stalling and its implications for traders.

“But, you know, I would rather be quick than dead.”

Sector Performance and Analysis

17:09 to 19:18

Explore the performance of different market sectors and their implications.

“I just don't recall seeing that much stalling in there, which is, you know, it's very interesting because Bill would always talk about you really have your distribution on your way up before the market rolls over.”

The Home Building Sector Insights

19:19 to 22:48

Insights into the home building sector and its potential for growth.

“a very different look, you know, and where it closed in the range, whereas a lot of these indexes closed in the lower part of the range, you know, this at least closed at the midpoint or higher.”

Historical Perspectives on Market Rotations

22:49 to 28:00

Discussing historical market rotations and their relevance today.

“and if it plays out the way I think it's going to play out.”
Show all 25 chapters

Market Rotation and Home Builder Stocks

28:00 to 30:30

Learn about market rotations and current trends in home builder stocks like Toll and DHI.

“where it looks, it's to extend it and initiate here, but you watch it to see if it gives you an entry.”

Analysis of StoneCo and Financial Stocks

30:30 to 33:06

Understanding the performance of StoneCo in the financial sector and comparing it with major players like Visa and MasterCard.

“This is another, this is in the finance area, Brazilian company.”

Micron and the Chip Market Dynamics

33:06 to 35:05

Explore the current landscape of the chip market with a focus on Micron and its recent performance.

“Now, let's talk about, you know, Micron, which is, you know, it's in the chip space, but it's also this computer data storage.”

Technical Analysis of Market Trends

35:05 to 40:01

A deep dive into technical analysis of market trends, regression lines, and behavior of SPY and NASDAQ.

“And then what we'll do is we'll also wrap up with just a revisit on the 1980 precedent, because when we talk about what to do now, that might be very instructive.”

Market Sentiment and Future Predictions

40:01 to 42:01

Discussion on market sentiment, future predictions, and the importance of monitoring key levels for potential trades.

“So, you know, given enough time, we might start a new regression line and actually start it over here on August 1st and then do a new trend, which would be kind of just a different slope.”

Market Analysis and Charting Techniques

42:01 to 43:16

Learn how to interpret market trends using chart analysis.

“So going on to this one, again, we're we look at all these charts to kind of paint a picture in our mind of are things clearly bullish, clearly bearish, somewhere in between.”

The Art of Drawing Support and Resistance Lines

43:16 to 45:11

Understand how to effectively draw and adjust support and resistance lines for trading.

“because we did break above that red line, right?”

Key Levels and Trading Strategies

45:11 to 46:55

Explore key levels in trading and strategies for navigating market changes.

“And especially looking at a lot of different charts, a lot of different examples, playing with it yourself.”

Impact of Financials on Small Caps

46:55 to 49:35

Discover how financial sector performance impacts small-cap stocks.

“Or, you know, the final line in the sand is down here, which hopefully we don't get down to the May 12th low.”

Evaluating Market Indicators and Divergences

49:35 to 52:02

Learn how to evaluate market indicators and recognize divergences.

“I should also mention that I'm not sure if this is still the case, but I know that the financials, the banks and all that were about a 20 percent of the IWM, you know, roughly.”

Screening Strategies for Market Rotation

52:02 to 56:00

Understand effective screening strategies for identifying market rotation.

“And I mean, when IWM, you know, when everything else was breaking their 21-day lines, IWM was holding at its 10-day line.”

Analyzing Market Charts Effectively

56:00 to 58:20

Learn strategies for efficiently screening and analyzing market charts.

“And that's what I'm going to be doing over the weekend.”

Sector Strength and Weakness Insights

58:20 to 59:25

Discover insights on sector performance, particularly focusing on XBI's strength.

“Well, you started with, I don't You know, I'm going to scare you, but yeah.”

Historical Precedents in Market Trends

59:25 to 1:02:30

Understand the significance of historical market precedents and their implications.

“We had backed away from some of it yesterday or the day before and then added that back in a little bit out of position.”

Anticipating Fed Actions and Market Reactions

1:02:30 to 1:05:20

Examine how upcoming Fed decisions might impact market behavior and sentiment.

“And that happens all the time with precedents.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00I'm Steve Booth, CEO of Baird, an independent wealth, asset management, and global capital markets firm. At Baird, our 5 ,000-plus employees are united by an unwavering commitment to excellence and a genuine passion for helping our clients and each other succeed. As a privately held, truly employee-owned company, we treasure our independence since we can focus on delivering results to clients and taking care of our people throughout the cycles in our serve markets. Learn more at rwbaird.com slash WSJ.

0:40hello and welcome to another episode of the stock market today video it is friday september 5th 2025 and we've got a lot to talk about today we had a jobs report and a little bit of stalling action a little rotation uh what does it all mean well to help us break it down we've got mike Webster, as we typically do on Fridays. He's our senior market strategist. How are you doing, Mike? Dude, I'm worn out. Today was a crazy day, man. This was wild. I've looked at so many charts, and man, I'm going to have to look at so many more this weekend to get a handle on this rotation. There was a lot going on underneath the surface today.

1:18Absolutely. Yeah. It was one of those days where, I mean, started out great and then got kind of ugly, but it really depended on what you were in. You could very well have had, you know, you could talk to two different people and get very different results on, you know, what they thought of the day. So let's get right into it. And, you know, of course, we'll talk about a few stocks today, including Toll Brothers, which is kind of on the side of the building, the home builders rotation that we've been talking about for a while here. We'll also talk about Stoneco and Micron in terms of stocks. But, you know, we will cover all of the sectors as we typically do.

1:56We'll cover some precedents because, hey, we're still leaning on this 1980 precedent. And we'll also talk a little bit about what's going on with the markets. So, yeah, and I do own Stone & Toll just for, you know, what? Thank you for that. I do own Stone Co. myself. I have I have home builder exposure with ETFs mostly. I think DHI is the only one that I went with on the individual stock side. I own that too. You own them all. Yeah. Really, don't you? But let's get right into the markets here. I'm going to go ahead and share my screen, and we can talk a little bit about where we finished for the day.

2:37Of course, a lot of eyes were on the NASDAQ composite, which has been showing a lot of strength. Got to new high territory intraday and, you know, kind of closed pretty flat, actually, down 0.03%. The S &P 500 had kind of a similar look to it. It was actually down, however. It had a closing high yesterday, getting back above 6 ,500, and then, you know, made some progress this morning, but couldn't hold on to it. It was down 0.37%. We have the Dow Jones Industrial Average that was down a little bit more, down a full half a percent. And then the Russell 2000, which we've been really kind of keeping our eyes on.

3:23I'm going to go ahead and pull up IWM because this sometimes takes a little bit of time to update. But, you know, this is up a lot more intraday, but still a half a percent close in the upper part of its range. That's no slouch. So where do you want to start here, Webby? Man, dealer's choice, dude. You pick it. Well, let's start with the Russell 2000 since it's up. And this has been, it seems like where the strength has really started to move. Now, I should mention, and I know you don't look at it, but the 10-year Treasury yield, I'm just going to start with that because we did have the jobs report, a very big change in the expectations for what's going to happen in this Fed meeting that's coming up later this month.

4:06I mean, I think we were at, what, 95 percent chance of a rate cut, you know, quarter rate, you know, cut. And then all of a sudden things looked really different. It was like, oh, now, you know, it's only it's less than 90 percent for a quarter rate cut. Now we've got like a 50 basis point. 10 percent chance of a half. Yeah. So that was a big difference. And also what it kind of changed for the outlook for the rest of the year, looking at potentially, you know, a 75 basis point cut overall by the end of the year. So very different than that. Ten years treasury, you know, that's been coming down.

4:45It took a hit again today. But, of course, that's one of the things that IWM, the Russell 2000, is going to benefit a little bit more from, right? Right. Yeah. I mean, speaking, going to the bonds, I don't use that as my analysis, as part of my analysis, but I did buy the TLT today, which is something I never, you know, I never venture into that space. But it just feels like, you know, they're going to trade the chart, right? I'll play the chart. And this looks like, you know, the beginning of something we'll see. And if it backs away, because it's right at the 200 day. But, you know, you see all of the activity of what was going on with the Fed funds futures because of the jobs numbers that we had this morning.

5:26It was just changing the dynamics of everything in the market, not everything, but a lot of things in the market in a big way. Let's go back to the IWM. So this is my, you know, where I'm leaning the heaviest. and this is where, you know, we're leaning the heaviest on Swing Trader as well. And we've been trying this for a little while now because it looks like we are, you know, been rotating out of the mega caps and into this space. Now, some of the megas still look great, but some of them are faltering. We'll get you, Google. Yeah, I mean, Google looks beautiful. I mean, let's go to the weekly on that one.

6:02That looks like it just wants to go a lot higher, have that news behind it, you know, Big, big move up on the week, 10 % up on the week. That's going to happen when you get a court ruling that goes in your favor. It could have been down just as much, if not more, if it would have gone the other way. But it is what it is. Now, let's look at Microsoft. That's quite different. And so that one looks really sick. after gapping up on the earnings, having that downside, that fade that day, and then this slow drift down, that's problematic. And let's go to Broadcom, which is probably what everyone is thinking of right now.

6:43I have a position in this as well, not as big of a position as I had coming into today because of the way it closed. I kept thinking that it was going to come back towards the end of the day, but it is reminiscent of that Microsoft. So you do want to be you know, careful that that doesn't just keep on, sorry, I'm fighting a cough that, you know, that it doesn't keep on doing exactly what Microsoft did. So we'll have to see how that plays out next week, but it's really a mixed bag. And then you've got, you know, the, some of the other megas, like an Apple that was just, you know, looking somewhere in between, like not strong like Google, but not weak like Microsoft.

7:22So even going to something like a TSM, you know, this is what I'm just bringing these up because there's such a mixed bag out there like that looks really good looks like it wants to break out of that flat base now go to let's pull up amd and nvidia you know then you've got the flip side of that amd breaking its 50 day it looked like it was going to get support there same thing with nvidia so you know all this news has a lot of gyrations and when you've got the mega caps um that controls such a large percent of the the indexes you know because since their market cap weighted, it just causes a lot of ripple effects, you know, I think out there because so many ETFs where, you know, things are tied to and it was a tricky day, frankly, but, you know, on balance, let's go back to the IWM.

8:13This is where the money is flowing here and in the building space and related to really, you know, long-term interest rates, you know, coming down and short-term interest rates coming down, or at least that's what the thought process is at the moment. And I think this has a long way to go because this is the, you know, let's go back to the weekly for a second. You know, there's been so many head fakes and can you turn off your best fit? Or I'll probably like have a conniption fit. You know, it's been so many times in there where it's like tried to go and then couldn't go, tried to go, couldn't go, tried to go, couldn't go.

8:53So this one looks like it's for real at this point. And they always look like they're for real until the bottom falls out. But, you know, it is feeling different this time because it's not this rush in there. It's been kind of a slow grind higher, a very healthy rotation in there rather than just kind of what, you know, other times it felt like kind of a knee jerk move in there. People getting, you know, offsides, you know, they were probably short. I would think a lot of people would have been short. at the IWM for a long time at long, the Qs. And that trade, you know, to me feels like it's unraveling.

9:29Let's go to the Qs for a second. And I just want to point out, you know, to your point, you know, we had this really strong move, a little bit of a pullback, really strong move, really held the gains well. Now we're kind of into near term highs, you know, staring down at, again, some of the highs that we were looking at from, you know, all the way, all the way back here to a full year ago, kind of approaching that resistance area. But yeah, let's compare that to the Qs because, again, not as great a look here. And we should also mention one of the things we keep bringing up is for as much as this upside reversal looked really interesting here on the Qs, QQEW had that upside reversal but really didn't get going, you know, and it's still a little middling.

10:17I mean, yesterday was a decent day. Today wasn't bad considering, you know, it did close mid-range. But it's stuck underneath the 50-day, you know, so that's not a good looking. Might as well go to RSP, which is how I like to look at the breath. And this is why there's so many mixed things going on. Like, this is fine, but it's not powerful. Like, this is your average large cap, you know, since this is the S &P 500 equally weighted. So 500 of your biggest stocks equally weighted. And it's like, hey, it's right near highs, you know. So if you look at if you take a step back from it, nothing to do here.

10:52And so we like to get in the nitty gritty on this program. But for slower people, you know, people who trade slower, you know, you just look at things, you know, even just the 50 day. It's in an uptrend. The low has been above it. It only tested it for one day. You know, so for the people who aren't as active, there's nothing wrong. But if you're active or you want to kind of catch those wiggles and wobbles, you know, the way we try to do it is you do have to pay attention to everything that's going on. Let's look at Spy as well. And, you know, it's just this feeling of stalling today, you know, but it was more of a rotation stall.

11:34Because as you went through screens, if anyone was playing through things like I was doing today, it was like there were so many powerful moves that were going on, a lot of medical-related, biotechs doing well. And anything really in the building-related space, it's not just home builders, pretty much like pull up Home Depot and Lowe's. Like we were looking at those this morning on, you know, on IBD Live. And that looks really good. Just starting its move. Of course, they can always, you know, have a - And you still have positions in those? No, I backed out of those to concentrate in some others.

12:13But I have them via like the ITV trade that I still have on and nail as well. But I think those look really, really good. And so you've got this money flowing out of, you know, the NVIDIA's, the AMD's and those types of stocks and then moving in financials. A lot of them were hit today. Pull up like Goldman Sachs and JP. I mean, well, not that bad. JP Morgan was worse. Yeah. And there were a lot of them in that space that looked even, you know, worse. Those aren't really that bad, frankly. But given when, you know, you have things that were just moving so much, the divergence there, having JP Morgan down 3%, was a big quality company.

13:01Like, that's a real move on that stock and that RIS line going down. And it wasn't unique to JP. There was a lot of them. Yeah, I mean, you had interactive brokers that, you know, that fell very sharply below. It's, yeah, a lot of the brokerage, you know, got hit really hard. I mean, and Charles Schwab, we were going to look at that as a potential watch list stock on on IBA live. And then it's like, oh, never mind. Let's change our mind there. You know, Robin Hood, which, again, had a decent kind of reversal the other day, right at 100. You know, I mean, it wasn't a bad close there, but still not not quite what you would have expected.

13:41Undercutting, you know, whenever you have that, you know, upside reversal, you expect it to hold low. And it didn't do that today. It finished above it, but it wasn't it wasn't a great look for a lot of these stocks. Yeah. And so, you know, like things like that, I had hood coming into today and I backed out of it because it wasn't wasn't working out. Is it broken? No. But, you know, I would rather be quick than dead. And, you know, if you're in it using the 93.36 is probably a good final line in the sand if you didn't sell it today or today's low, you know, is how I would look at it. But, you know, it's tricky out there.

14:20It really is. If you're an active trader, you know, on Swing Trader, we had a really good day today. We were in the right space, but we could have easily been in the wrong space. You know, it was it's and it's been hard. It's been hard. And you know what? I mean, when you again look at, let's go ahead and move over into the sector analysis, because when you look at the sectors, it really isn't that bad in terms of how many sectors were down. The worst hit was energy. So this is XLE, back down to its 200-day moving average line. And then as we just kind of talked through, XLF was not looking great.

15:02That got hit, you know, pretty decently with a 1.8 % loss for the day. XLI, the industrials, you know, that's right there at its 50-day moving average line, closed off its lows, but, you know, certainly not a great, you know, great finish for it. XLU, which we've been kind of talking about as being AI adjacent to a degree that kind of allowed for some of this participation in here. It's been pulling back here for a while. The relative strength definitely getting worse on that. And today, you know, didn't help anything. Then we had SPY, you know, just to kind of know where the S &P 500 was. XLY was actually basically flat for the day.

15:51Certainly off its highs, but, you know, flat for the day. I'm going to throw in QQEW because it was actually up a little bit. Qs were up a little bit more, you know, not much. It definitely felt like stalling, just being frank, you know? Yeah, and let's describe stalling real quick. It's the idea that you're moving up. You have to have some type of move up to stall from. So you're moving up, and then you just can't make progress. So especially given how much progress we made at the beginning of the day, the fact that we kind of closed flat does give you that feeling of stalling. And Bill O 'Neill, the founder of Investors Business Daily, always called this a form of distribution.

16:35And we've had some distribution days in here. We've had a lot of stalling days recently, especially at the high ground. So it's kind of a little bit of a, oh, can it get through there? And it looked like it was today until it didn't. So, yeah, that was that was really tricky. But, yeah, stalling action. Anything to add on the stalling side? Stalling we could talk for hours and hours about, but we won't. But, you know, it feels like maybe the two of us could do some work on this next week. It feels like a lot more stalling, according to our rules of stalling that we worked on with Bill and Charles, that, you know, in a relatively short period of time, meaning over the last few months, I just don't recall seeing that much stalling in there, which is, you know, it's very interesting because Bill would always talk about you really have your distribution on your way up before the market rolls over.

17:37So even though I'm very bullish, especially on the small cap space and the home building space, you know, you have to be aware of both sides. You don't want to just put rose colored glasses on and see everything as positive. Like this action for this week, you know, like it just wasn't powerful enough and it was stalling there. So when you stall, your expectation is to move lower, not to fall apart, but to move lower. And so you have to look at every chart and just be very objective with it and say, OK, what information is it telling you? Now, if you look back at a weekly or a monthly, there's nothing to see here.

18:14It's a nothing burger. You know, the weekly looks great, frankly, you know. So it just depends on the lens that you're looking at and how active you're trading. You could just look at this, just say it's just base building and doing what you'd like it to do. Pull up the FNGS for a second. Because for a long time, everyone was saying, this is the only place where things are working in the mega caps. And this isn't a perfect instrument, but it gives you the feel of, you know, 10 mega cap stocks out there. And it was just base building. Now, it's technically it broke out of this base, this little mini flat base there.

18:57And so we'll see a lot of that, I think, was the Broadcom and the Google and things like that moving it. But, you know, you just keep an open mind. this looks better than SPY and NASDAQ and the Q's, frankly. Yeah, so that was a breakout to highs. So it's a very different look, you know, and where it closed in the range, whereas a lot of these indexes closed in the lower part of the range, you know, this at least closed at the midpoint or higher. And that's the same thing for the Russell that made it look a little bit different. Continuing on with our The big difference there is this is 10 stocks and the Russell is 2 ,000 stocks.

19:39So I trust a sample size of 2 ,000 over 10 any day of the week, man. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So continuing on with the sectors, again, looking at the sector spiders, XLK, which is technology. Again, not too bad. You know, it's certainly there were individual stocks in there. And considering that I think Microsoft is one of the larger ones in here and how bad that looked, it's actually kind of impressive that it did as well as it did. RSP was kind of next, which we already talked about, as well as the Qs. XLP, that was the consumer staples. So, you know, this was up. But again, it wasn't like this was the strongest area.

20:28XLV, which does tend to be defensive as well, was up a nice amount, three-tenths of a percent. XLC, which that does have Google in there, as well as Meta is one of the big components. So, you know, with Google, I should say Alphabet, the parent company there. But with that doing so well, XLC, no big surprise, was among the top performers today. And XLB materials, this one was, again, mid-range close, but up seven-tenths of a percent. And then, of course, XLRE was the big winner. You know, real estate, you know, whether that's REITs or home builders, a lot of those having a great day, over 1 % gain.

21:16I will just throw in SMH, the chips, because as we noted, you know, Broadcom, of course, which you and I both have a position in, Broadcom was the big move there with nearly a 10 percent move, even when it was finishing at the lows of the day, still up almost 10 percent. So that was really helping out SMH, even though NVIDIA and AMD and some of the other big players, as you mentioned, were not. But TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor, also a big player in SMH. And so that was beating all the sector spiders, at least, on the Van X Semiconductor ETF. Anything else to add on that one? No, we might as well look at the ITB because that's something that we both are trading.

22:02We've traded it on SwingTrader. And I actually kind of scaled back on my ITB and moved it more to Nail. Okay. Yeah. Because I'm doing cash accounts. So I wanted to kind of use the buying power. Wisely, yes. So, yeah, I've got both depending on which accounts. So this to me looks like the beginning of something. Let's go to the weekly on this one for a second. And this beautiful, you know, deep cup, nice rounded out. I would have wanted a longer handle, but you don't always get everything you want. And this looks like it wants to go to new highs. So that's the way we're playing things on Swing Traded.

22:47I'm playing it personally is really in this home building space and related and probably keep getting heavier in that space, frankly, over the coming weeks. and if it plays out the way I think it's going to play out. But if it doesn't, we'll just back away. One thing that we talked about on IBD Live this morning was NVR back in 2000. Let's just do that really briefly. And NVR is still, you know, looking strong recently, but we were talking about this all the way back in what was known as the dot-com crash and how... August 4th of 2000 was the date. Okay. That's close enough. Well, you ask. Okay.

23:33I do. So this was the beginning of this home building move back in 2000. You look at it and go, oh, this looks normal, right? But now pull up the NASDAQ at the same time and see how the market had topped in March of 2000. And it was going through this time where they were essentially moving out of the dot-com type of stocks and into your older type of companies in there, which if you pull up the S &P 500, is a good way of seeing how that space was holding in their tights as being sloppy while they were selling off the NASDAQ. And even pull up the Dow, you know, that just holding in there, you know, those 30 stocks, kind of the older school type of stocks.

24:23Well, Nasdaq was getting killed. Now go to. I should also mention that there was this there was this kind of last ditch effort with the May 31st follow through day, if I remember correctly, in 2000, where you did have your Sun Microsystems, your fiber optics, Corning, JDSU, Keithley Instruments, SDLI. You know, there were a lot of stocks that were still moving, you know, through this time. But, yeah, then they fell. And that's when things really got ugly after that. Might as well pull up Corning since you've got this date on there. And I do have a position in Corning. I know we're looking at it in the past, but I do have a position in Corning right now.

25:02And I had it back then, too. Yeah, we both did. And Bill was all hot and heavy on this one. And we all were. And, you know, that beautiful move out of there. So you have to keep an open mind and just trade what's in front of you. And then that ended up rolling over. Let's go out to the next date of 5302 and go back to NVR just to kind of see how this played out. And we could go to the weekly on it. And that monster move, point down to the August 4th of 2000 where we were starting. starting way down there and this beautiful move, this, you know, huge rotation now pull up the Nasdaq so folks can.

25:46And I mean, this was a 38 percent correction here, but it came out of it in 2001 for another, you know, move. And look, there was a follow through day. You know, a lot of people, you know, don't remember follow through days actually happening in the Nasdaq, a number of them, some of them going up. You know, the Nasdaq went up 40 percent And in its like 79 percent decline, you would have these 40 percent rallies sometimes. So, yeah, that was one of them in 2001 that happened shortly after 9-11, in fact. Yeah, so folks should go back and study that time frame because there's a potential that you get a mini version of this.

26:26I'm not saying the NASDAQ falling apart, but just a rotation out of some of the stuff. They pause. They don't have to go down 70 % like it did back then, but just pause, maybe base build and other things kind of take the baton and run. That's the thesis I'm working with right now. And we'll see how it plays out. But it really feels like there's a big move of a lot of money into, you know, this just the building space, not the building of AI centers, but building of anything else pretty much. Yeah. And, you know, to that point, and I'm bringing this back to the present here, AGX, which is kind of in that heavy construction area, known for a little bit of the infrastructure data centers and things.

27:14And that's what's been kind of working for this, you know, that kind of stuff getting hit hard. Whereas your, you know, it's not sexy, but your WMS advanced drainage systems with corrugated pipe or your MAS, you know, Masco with, you know, plumbing and cabinets and things like that. These were doing well in this construction products area. Yeah, and there are tons of stuff in that. DR, you know, the list goes on, right? Again, especially those things that were kind of in the, for the residential space. But you know what, let's maybe talk, you know, since this was one of the stocks that we were going to talk about, let's talk about Toll Brothers coming out of this nice, long cup with handle this week and a really good close.

28:03Yeah. So I do have a position in this. We've got it on Swing Trader. where it looks, it's to extend it and initiate here, but you watch it to see if it gives you an entry. But this space, if you start seeing these stocks come down and take out this week's lows, you'll know that, hey, it's a rotation that didn't end up working out. And that happens all the time. You get a rotation for a short period of time, and then it reverts back. And you never know how that's, if it's going to play out, but you need to know the signs. And so the first sign would be coming back underneath that pivot, but really coming down underneath the Tuesday morning low.

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28:44That would be saying, you know what, there's something wrong here and it needs more time or maybe it's not going to work out. But, you know, we went with toll. We could have gone with almost any throw a dart at the home builders. They all pretty much they all look the same. You know, I'm also trading DHI and we've got that on Swing Trader. They all look the same. I think this is the strongest one, at least at the moment. But, you know, that - And I do have a position in DHI as well. Okay, yeah. And, you know, you could also just do it through XHB, which we have on Swing Trader and I have as well.

29:20And this, you know, that's one way to play it. ITB is another way to play it, which we're trading on there and I'm trading. And I should mention that I brought up Nail, which is basically like ITB, but it's a triple leveraged. So, you know, just in case people are wondering what that is. Not for everyone to be in the triple leveraged, but you have to make sure that you know how to cut your losses when they happen. And by the way, I've had a number of losses in Nail that even recently where I tried a couple times didn't immediately work. But, you know, right now I've got a good gain on it. The trick is to nail down a good gain on that.

29:59Right, exactly.

30:29Learn more at GeneralFusion.com. Let's move over to StoneCo. This is another, this is in the finance area, Brazilian company. I do have a position in this myself. And yeah, you know, for as ugly as finance looked, was it because this has the Brazil exposure? You know, Brazil looks decent. I think so. ERJ. ERJ also looked very good. Yeah. Another Brazilian, quite different business than Stone. And even though Melia is Argentinian, it's got a lot of business in Brazil. But I mean, that was kind of middling, but very different than those. But back to Stone. Give us your take here. So as a contrast, pull up like Visa or MasterCard.

31:14So our version, you know, that looks weak. MasterCard looks weak, but yet the Stone looks, you know, really solid. And it's kind of a classic little, you know, if you just started reading charts, you know that that's a cup with handle it i mean it says textbook as it gets nice little shake out in the handle upside reversal at the bottom and then you break out through your standard pivot kind of pause a little bit um stay above your 21 day like this is as textbook as it gets it doesn't mean it's going to work out but what you're doing is trying to put the odds in your favor of you know finding things that that behave like this it doesn't mean that they go up every day but you want to know what's normal and natural.

31:57And so like yesterday's, you know, close near the high gave you the expectation that something like today might happen. And that's what happened. So every day you look at a chart and say, okay, what's my expectation for tomorrow? And as long as it does something like that, it's acting normal. When it starts breaking your expectation, that's a danger sign to say, you know what, I just don't know. And it's a total crapshoot. This should go higher. Doesn't mean it will, but that would be normal and natural for this to, you know, run up to maybe 20 or so. We'll see how it plays out. And I can't remember if it was on a day where I was covering for you on the SMT video or if it was on the Monday.

32:36But I did bring this up, you know, on the SMT video back then. So hopefully people got into it at that point. I was actually a little late myself. I didn't want to buy it right before talking about it on the video. So I was planning on waiting until the next day and I plum forgot. And so I was, I think, buying it in here and in here. So, yeah. I forget all the time, man. Lots of moving parts. Yeah. Now, let's talk about, you know, Micron, which is, you know, it's in the chip space, but it's also this computer data storage. We've been seeing a lot of decent moves in the computer data storage with Seagate technology.

33:19That had a really strong day today. WC is a position that I have. Unfortunately, you know, as is almost always the case when things go up like this, I don't have enough of it. It was much smaller than it should be. But let's talk about Micron and what you're seeing here. Yeah. So this is more, I'm not trading it. For me, the day would have been yesterday to buy it because it was going over that prior resistance plus a downtrend in the handle. Today just felt a little bit extended. But from a standard pivot, that's with my swing trading hat on. With a position trading hat on, it's right there, 2 % past its standard pivot.

34:02This is where you do end up buying it. So I think that looks good. it was just a little bit weird how there's just so many gyrations in this general tech space. But you know, you have things like pull up SanDisk. I mean, I was trading that. I sold it either yesterday or today just because of other stuff to move money elsewhere. I was not expecting a big move. Like I think I sold it yesterday. I was not expecting this. There was no reason to sell. It It was more just needed the capital for something else. It was a small position, but some massive moves in this area. And I was trading the WDC and stuff like you were trading too.

34:43And that's on the positive side. So you're just always looking at everything. Sure, the NVIDIAs and AMDs look bad, but these look like the money is going from that space and just coming over here. So the Micron looks like it's in position. And, you know, I think it's worth studying over the weekend. Mike, I'm going to have you go ahead and take control here. And then what we'll do is we'll also wrap up with just a revisit on the 1980 precedent, because when we talk about what to do now, that might be very instructive. But go ahead and take it away, Mike. Sure. OK, so you can see my weekly chart.

35:22So this is our time to do the Bob Weir. take a step back and not look at all the noise and just see, okay, what does a weekly candle tell you on here? Really nice in a lot of ways. I mean, the part that's bad is the top wick is bigger than what you'd like, but the body, meaning that the distance from your open to your close really dwarfed anything that we've seen for the last three weeks. And so that's telling you there was a lot of movement on there. I know that there was a lot of fear in the market on Tuesday, but we were able to get through that and close a lot higher. Yes, we stalled today, so we're off the highs.

36:01But it still looks good. And you want to stay above this week's low because that was kind of a critical place, critical test that it passed. And same thing with the NASDAQ. It passed that test with the very week open on Tuesday. And then we went up and hit the new highs. It's not a bad-looking candle. Would I have preferred it to close at the top? Of course, but when you look at it through this lens, it looks solid. Now let's look at the regression lines. Let's start off with spy. And this is kind of inconclusive because it's looking weak from this lens because let's just let everyone know that your starting points on here, if you want to do this at home.

36:51On 5-12 was your first date. And then we go out 50 trading days. And so 7-23 is what I have on here. And so we look at 50 data points. We put a line of best fit, which is your white line. And these are just 0.75 standard deviations and one standard deviation below it are the green lines. And when you come through here, Let me blow this up a little bit. When you come through this bottom one the way we did, your expectation is to kind of go straight up to your white line. That's your home base or your mean reversion trade. And we ran into problems today. Clearly, at least we close still above your one standard deviation.

37:39So this is not broken, but it is bent, you know, because if we zoom back out. I should mention that this is a little reminiscent of what you were talking about, you know, a couple Fridays ago. Yeah. Where we did get through that dashed green line and you were like, OK, this is where you punch it. And then it was like, oh, you know, it didn't get up to that white line. It just kind of meandered a little bit. And then we had another test. Should also mention that just because it breaks that solid green line doesn't mean, oh, the trend is over for good. You can give it a little tolerance, in which case this one did come back into the channel.

38:21Well said. And so with this, if you just look at the time since August 1st, this is weak compared to prior to August 1st. So you're looking at this and always being objective, even if you're bullish as I am. You look at this and just go, the character is starting to change. And it's not that same rate of advance in the same way that it was before, because you can see that it's living in the bottom part of it in the southern hemisphere of the regression area. And that's not where you want to be. You want to be in the middle to the top part of it, you know, dragging it up, not just living along the bottom.

39:00So it is just objectively it's weak, but it's not broken. And so what are our signals here? taking out today's high, really, that would put you back above the 0.75, the minus 0.75 standard deviations below that line. And that's where you would want to, you know, if we get a gap up on Monday and go above today's high, that's where I would be gunning it in that space again. But right now, not so much. Let's look at the NASDAQ. Same basic thing, you know, just it's not broken. Like you said, you can be underneath the one standard deviation for a few days, but you really have to pay attention to it there.

39:42And so it was only down there for one day, really kind of one and a half days and moved back up there. But still, it has this overall feeling of being weak and that character change that happened with that break of the 21 day. And that's what we've been talking about for a while, that when you've been training above your 21 day for a long period of time and then you finally break it. you do get this character change. So, you know, given enough time, we might start a new regression line and actually start it over here on August 1st and then do a new trend, which would be kind of just a different slope.

40:19But it's still too soon to do that. We'll go over to the 50 % retracement. And what we're doing is just... Just real quickly. Okay, so what about IWM? Have you done a channel on this one? No, because it's still a little too early. Right. Exactly. I was going to say, you know, because it's so different from SPY and the NASDAQ, when do you start doing one here? Because what do you use as your anchor points? Well, that's that's a tricky thing. Like so you could just go back down over here and do that, but and do something like that. But it doesn't you know, that's OK. Let's go back to like, you know, something like that, you know, somewhat works.

41:03but it really feels like the inflection point was on August 12th. So with that, you know, start, you know, let me get rid of that and start it again. You know, if you're starting it here at this inflection point, we just don't have enough data there. You know, but now you could also, and it's funny that you mentioned this because I've been just contemplating this so much and going, starting it on this date there and going there. But it's not the standard one that we would use. And obviously that slope is a bit too steep. But somewhere in that one of those, this is an art, even though it's numbers, it's an art of where you start it and where you stop it.

41:51But this is probably the one that makes the most sense to me. But I'll do more work on that and we'll circle back to that. How about that? Yeah, that makes sense. Because again, stay tuned. We'll have the updates as they come. Yeah. So going on to this one, again, we're we look at all these charts to kind of paint a picture in our mind of are things clearly bullish, clearly bearish, somewhere in between. It's always somewhere in between, but you want to see where where things are leaning. And that's why we start off with the weekly and then we go through all this noise. and with this the 50 % retracement again in art you can start them anywhere you want this one I'm using the August 20th low and the high from the 28th and just saying okay well that was our our kind of move that we had are you in the upper hemisphere or not and you are you're in the northern hemisphere still so that's a positive let's look at the Nasdaq and same thing there I'm using August 20th and the 28th.

42:54Did I do one on the IWM noise? Yes. So August 21st is where I was doing a bear and then just doing the next day, the 22nd. And you can just see how much stronger this looks. And that's why I've been moving over into this space versus the others, because it just is showing so much strength. Now, just a question real quick on these, because we did break above that red line, right? You know, so at what point do you start redrawing your lines here? Are you waiting for kind of like, oh, we had a short term top and now we're pulling back and you got to have, you know, a low or how do you how do you do that?

43:37It's an art and I slice it all sorts of ways. So, you know, sometimes I will do it from all the way back here because what you're doing is you're looking for extreme levels, right? It was an extreme weak point and then moved up to something. And, you know, a breakout is a clean thing or in this case, kind of a shakeout down here as it was on August 1st up to kind of this peak here. You could even do this peak. But at some point, once you start living above it, you just delete it and move on because it's proven itself. So from this one, it proved itself. You can also do them from just days like, from just like a day like here up to this one.

44:23Oh, it's being temperamental with me. But, you know, those two days. And let's try it again. And then like these two days, you know, like, so you can slice this. I do this on an interday charts. I do it all the way up to monthly charts. And there's not a one perfect place. So that's, again, why it is an art. That's a really, really good question. Sometimes there's only one way to do it. And then you'll just it'll be so obvious on the chart, like a clean breakout up to kind of a swing high. that would be your, or just up to, you know, a high that then, you know, gives back a quarter or so more of it.

45:06It's clear that that's the retracement level to use. But other than that, it becomes really an art. You know, when you see it. And especially looking at a lot of different charts, a lot of different examples, playing with it yourself. As you said, you kind of have to make these indicators your own really just by playing with them. And that's, that's how you get, you know, better at it and kind of learn that art, you know, just as, you know, when you were a kid, you did your finger painting, you did your, you know, coloring. Sometimes you were in the line, sometimes you're out of the lines and that's how you learned, you know, what to, what to do.

45:38Well, well said. I was not very good at coloring. I still am not. So here's the, the levels chart. Let's look at Spy. I tried to clean this up a bit. always just put the green one up at the current high. And then the yellow is, you know, kind of the first line in the sand. And that would be Tuesday's low. And you can almost even say that that's a red one because that is an important level because we on Tuesday morning, you didn't know we could have had a waterfall sell off. And so on that day, on that gap down, you got to take some action, but you're trying to not throw out everything, just anything that maybe you got over your skis or some things that are triggering some sell signals or just backing away from some stuff.

46:25But the fact that it made a stand there, that becomes an important level. And then the next one would be the low from the 20th, but I didn't mark it there because I didn't want it to be too busy. But the next level would be the low from August 1st. That's probably the most important one on this chart because that was a key change in character that we keep talking about. Then you can go back over to the 591.89, which happens on the June 23rd. Or, you know, the final line in the sand is down here, which hopefully we don't get down to the May 12th low. And that's, you know, this is how I like to do it where you don't have to do, it's not a sell everything type of thing.

47:11If you're a slower trader, as it starts hitting these, you start backing away and backing away. If you're swing trading, that's a different animal. You're a lot faster and everything. But if you're position trading, which probably a lot of people who watch are doing, these are kind of the levels of where you want to start taking some action as they go through it. You know, if you're the type of person who maybe doesn't even trade even once during the week, that's where you would look at these lines in the sand and say, OK, it's really starting to break down. I need to start taking some action.

47:42So just depends. And as you said, like you, you change that yellow to kind of a red because sometimes you'll have multiple things happening at the same time. So now Tuesday's low is pretty close to the 50 day moving average line. So if you break below that, you're breaking not only that upside reversal, but you're also breaking below that important 50 day moving average line level of support that a lot of people use. It can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, but just because a lot of people use it doesn't mean you shouldn't do, right? Yeah, well said, Justin. And so the same basic levels on this chart.

48:17This is the NASDAQ. And again, the level from Tuesday is the most important than the other ones. So just get in the habit of doing this on your charts, because what will happen is at times you might get carried away with a theme. You know, like I'm very carried away with this theme of housing and small caps working, really more so housing than small caps. because if the banks don't end up working out, there's such a big part of the IWM that that might be tricky. But the home building space and related, that's the thesis for now that I think it could be the very beginning of a really extended move because when that group starts moving, they can last a long time like we saw with the NVR back in 2000.

49:05But I still want to have lines in the sand on there because if they start breaking through them, then I know, hey, I was wrong. And then you start throwing them in the towel, maybe not all at once, just gradually doing that. And you and I have both been wrong on IWM multiple times over the last year or so. But the reason why we can try it again is because we always kept those losses small. Or, yeah, we just didn't get hurt. So it kind of gives you that freedom to try and try again. I should also mention that I'm not sure if this is still the case, but I know that the financials, the banks and all that were about a 20 percent of the IWM, you know, roughly.

49:48I'd have to rerun that. But you also have, again, when you have the lower interest rates, if it's easier for those smaller companies to borrow with more, you know, better terms, that's something that you would assume would be better for them as opposed to something like Apple that's sitting like on a mountain of cash. They don't need to borrow. You know, you raise rates on them and they just, okay, well, we'll go into our cash reserves. But it's very different for the small cap companies generally. So you've got that. Yeah, I mean, the banks are potentially helping them out. Yeah, the banks, they like the, you know, the spread there on the yield curve.

50:26And that's a whole topic for another day. But hopefully that's a winded or back there, too, with IWM. Because, yeah, I do think it's about 20 percent, give or take, of them. Yeah, a lot of regional banks. Here's SPY with just keeping it clean. Just the 21 day, your low is still above it. So that's good. And let's look at the composite. Same thing there. Your low is still above it. So that is good. Let's share my other charts. One sec.

50:59And okay, we will go over to the Webby RSI. And this is this little histogram down at the bottom. It's just this tiny little baby candle. And that's saying that the distance from your low versus the 21 day is just really teeny tiny. It's still positive, but you want it to be a lot bigger than what it currently is. But it's still hanging on. Let's do the NASDAQ. Same thing there. Just this tiny one. But let's look at RSP. It's telling you, you know, it's really not doing what you'd like it to do. But let's look at the IWM. And quite different. You can see that that distance from the low versus the 21-day is expanding.

51:46You'd like to see it expanding more really in the two and a half, you know, or even higher range at this point. But at least it's on a relative basis a lot stronger than what we're seeing with, you know, let's even look at the queues. And I mean, when IWM, you know, when everything else was breaking their 21-day lines, IWM was holding at its 10-day line. for those of you that look at it. So major, like just such a major divergence, you know, and you know, a lot of folks who've been burned on the IWM for the last three, four years, as I have been, they're gun shy and they're like, oh, I want to wait weeks or months, you know, for this to prove itself.

52:28Well, if you do that at that point, then you're going to be always making excuses. Oh, now it's too extended. I'm going to wait for a pullback. Then the pullback is going to happen and you're going to say, okay, now it's rolling over. I don't want to buy it. and rinse and repeat it and just keeps on happening. So you've got to find a system that works for you and, and, and, and trust it. And so if your instruments are telling you, this is where the money is going, um, you've got to put, be that goldfish you brought up the, this morning on, uh, IBD live, uh, from the whole Ted Lasso thing of you just forget it.

53:00You know, the, the, um, if no one knows what I'm talking about, like a goldfish has no memory, At least that's what people think. And so you just forget the users got burned all these other times. Just follow what your rules tell you to do. And if your rules say don't trade IWM, then don't. But if your rules say it, don't make excuses, which I hear a lot of people doing. So let's go to SPY and do the Bob Marley chart, my daughter's favorite one. And this is in the green zone. So from that standpoint, it's still all good because the green zone is within four ATRs off your high. That's what that measurement is down here.

53:41And you're still better than two ATRs off your high. So nothing wrong there. And nothing wrong with the NASDAQ either. You're, you know, right up there, less than two ATRs off the high. And IWM is coming back quite a bit because that had been a dog for a long period of time. You can see this chart. I mean, this is what we're talking about, how sloppy, you know, this has been for such a long. You basically flatlined it at 10. Like, OK, once it gets under 10 ATRs, forget it. Yeah. It doesn't matter. That got really, really ugly there for a while. So let's see, stop share. No, that was, you know, I would suggest people this weekend do a lot of screening.

54:27And I would do it in a way of look at the extremes. Look at what was up the most this week with a high closing range. So you can go in a market surge and, you know, do those up a few percent on the week and add a closing range for the week of, let's say, 70 or higher. and then also do the same thing on the ones that were down a lot. Let's say they were down, you know, three or 4 % for the week and close in the bottom, let's say 25 % of the closing range and study and see what themes you're seeing. You know, when you run that, put the sector in as a report item in your custom screen and then look and see, okay, oh, well, all the home builders were up a lot and all the XYZs were down a lot.

55:18And it'll give you a sense of where that rotation is. Frankly, I know a lot of people don't have the time to do it, but you really benefit from doing a really wide screen. I'm going to tell you, it's going to scare people, but just do something as simple as stocks above$10, above$25 million volume, not share volume, dollar volume, and above their 50-day and above their 200-day. It'll give you probably around 1 ,000 stocks, maybe 900-ish, and not ETFs, exclude ETFs, and just look at all of those and sort them by what was up the most on the week. On the way down, there's one way you can do it just to get a sense of where is that money flowing because so much going on.

56:05And that's what I'm going to be doing over the weekend. I'll actually do bigger screens than that because this is an important time. It frankly is. And it's going to be very, very tricky. For those that got scared by saying, oh, just go through a thousand charts. You can also, you know, do some filters to kind of, you know, triage a little bit. You know, maybe you stick with. Yeah, I know. I know you wouldn't. But not everyone has empty nests. You know, some people are still taking care of kids and, you know, everything like that. So, look, there are things that you can do to sort. And so if you don't get through all 1 ,000, you can sort.

56:43And sometimes that allows you to kind of get through the top, the ones that are most important and you can prioritize. So I don't want anyone to not do the process because they're like, oh, I don't have time for 1 ,000 charts. Better to do a smaller sample than nothing, in my opinion. um we'll disagree there because a thousand is a small amount of charts frankly really for you not for everybody that's how you'll get you gotta start somewhere right that's how you'll get your feel for the market so if you don't have a lot of time just look at the growth 250 that's your easiest way but you're not going to see a lot of the things that got damaged there um an easier way to do it for the folks who who don't have the type of time just um do by dollar volume, just the top, whatever, however many you can do.

57:37If you can only do 50 stocks, do that. 100 stocks, however many you can do, you are going to get so much information if you do that on a regular basis. I cannot stress that enough. It's so important for your subconscious to be picking up on all the stuff in the charts of what's moving, what's not, what's acting normal, what's acting abnormal. And it should also be mentioned that when you're doing this look at a thousand charts, you're not analyzing a thousand charts. You're going through spacebar, spacebar, going through very quickly and just allowing the chart to kind of, you know, the ones that are special to jump out at you.

58:12And then you might stop or flag, but you do not have to analyze a thousand charts. I didn't mean to scare you guys. Well, you started with, I don't You know, I'm going to scare you, but yeah. So, you know, just real quickly, because I know we're already, you know, over time, but I wanted to make sure that we also spent a little bit. We forgot to go over XBI. This was just an area of strength that we should point out, you know, when we went through the sectors. This was something that definitely stuck out. And look, XBI, unlike a lot of the sector spiders that are very concentrated, you know, This one is pretty spread out.

58:53Your top stocks in terms of weighting are like 3%, 3.5%. And there were a number of stocks that were contributing to the strength here. So this was up over 2%. This is another one where a little bit of this rotation where it has been out of favor, but has recently, like IWM, like the home builders, has seemed to be coming into strength. So, yeah, I brought that up because I do have a position in that and we do have it on swing trader and we added back to it today. We had backed away from some of it yesterday or the day before and then added that back in a little bit out of position. I mean, we had it.

59:34We were just making it a bigger position today because this is where the money was flowing. And when I was doing this screens throughout the day, there's so many of these biotechs that I wouldn't want to trade on an individual basis because the risk involved with FDA and all that's, you know, things that can happen. But collectively, and as you said, a really broad based one where you can get one stock that gaps up 40 percent or something on the day, that's not going to have a material impact. Same thing on the way down. It could gap down 40 percent unless there's a theme out there. It's the collective thing.

1:00:09And it feels like, you know, I think it's an interest rate thing is helping it as well. You know, it's just the lower the interest rates, the easier it is for R &D. And so this is another space. I meant to mention it. I forgot. Oh, you're going to do the thing that I forgot about. No problem. Yeah, we got each other's back. So, oh, you know what? I have to go to NASDAQ first. So let's go there. I didn't want to do it while you were talking. We're going to go back to 1980. So for those that have been watching the show for a while, you know, we've spent a little bit of time on this. A lot of time, maybe.

1:00:46But let's go back to November 14th, 1980. You know, Ronald Reagan had just been elected president. And, you know, that was that was right in here. And we got this move off the 50 day moving average line after a long extension above the 21 day moving average line. And just like August 1st, we had this really bad break below the 21-day moving average line after that long time above it. And then you got back to new highs, one more pullback, and then you started moving to new highs again. So is this precedent still in play? Yes and no. Okay, so what was important was for today, and let's not go there yet, but for today, for us to take out the old high, which in this case took out the 200.83, which was its old high.

1:01:33Now, obviously, back then, it did it in quite a different way. It just powered through there. Now, yeah, let's go out to the next date that I gave you. I forget what date that was. So we're going to go up to March 12th, 1981. When it went through that 200.83, it kept going and then it ran into trouble. And so earlier today, I was worried that it was the day after the 208.29 where we were going to start coming down. Because the thing is, this one only lasted a couple of weeks into new highs and then rolled over. So when you're using a precedent, you don't just use it when you like what it's telling you.

1:02:15You use it until it's broken. And right now, the fact that we stalled at new highs versus powering into new highs, this one is now on the fence. And if we don't power higher next week, then I'm going to be throwing out that precedent and just saying, OK, it's either fast forwarded to the point where it broke down through the 50 or it's just something else now. And that happens all the time with precedents. You have to be willing to throw it out. But this one is still tracking with a little bit of a difference today. And you can probably relate that to the jobs numbers and the broad combo of the two.

1:02:54And it's also worth mentioning that, again, we are seeing this rotation. So the NASDAQ is not necessarily exemplifying the strength that we're maybe seeing elsewhere. It is also interesting that you talk about this two-week period that we have. And anything coming in two weeks? Oh, the Fed is on the 17th, right? Yeah. So that's what I've been thinking, too. is like, okay, is it going to be one of those things where it's a buy the rumor, sell the fact type of thing? And we'll just have to wait and see how things play out on the Fed day because everyone knows that we're going to be cutting. It's not a surprise, or they're going to be cutting.

1:03:36Based on the Fed funds futures, it's a certainty at this point that it's going to be a quarter or half. That can change on Monday. But at this moment in time, no one is even betting that we're keeping the rates the same. so it's not a surprise if Powell comes out and cuts it by a quarter well that was already baked in then you just have to look at the reaction but yeah that's been worrying me the timeline with with the Fed but what I wanted to point out on here is look at that day um where you're in March there where your low had been above your 21 day for 10 days in a row right as it broke through your 50-day or held your 50-day.

1:04:16Could you just point to that? So are you talking about like right here? In March, yeah, right there. So what you want to pay attention to is if we run into any trouble like that is wait for your low to get above your 21-day and start trending above it, you know, five, 10 days plus. And then that's telling you that the character has changed and you saw that there and then eventually it breaks through the 21-day. And rinse and repeat. it starts all over again with a different changing character. You never know what that's going to be. So let's just go back to our current chart, just since you have this fresh in your mind.

1:04:52And so do you see the difference there before we powered through and just would have been on our way past the 22 ,000, you know, but now we just don't know. We have to wait over the weekend and see how things play out next week. But again, just to be clear, if we don't go into new high ground next week, then I'm going to be throwing this precedent out and looking for another one. And you can't always find one. Yeah, that's and this is why we also have all the other indicators and rules and, you know, market school rules, for instance, that help us to make sense of things in a very rules based fashion.

1:05:29We had Scott Bennett, of course, you know, for the invest with rules. So that's definitely on my mind. Yeah. But I think that wraps it up for us this week. And we will see in a lot of a lot of news to digest with the jobs numbers, a lot of charts to look at this this weekend. But we will be right back next week on Ibiti Live and also Stock Market Today to help you get through it. So hope you join us for Ibiti Live at investors.com slash IBD live. And we'll see you back here on Monday on the Stock Market Day video. That's going to wrap it up for us. Thank you so much, Mike. And we will see you all later.

1:06:08Have a great weekend, everybody.

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