Stocks Fall As Yields Soar, Oil Rises; Palantir, Palo Alto, NetApp In Focus

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0:40Ed Carson:good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today for wednesday september 23rd it's alisa quorum along with ed carson here and stocks dropping with yields surging today ed yeah pretty big moving yields uh but palo alto palantir and netapp were three stocks that did reasonably well today. Okay, we'll check those out. But first, let's take a closer look at the major indexes as I pull my market surge charts up. Here's a look at the S &P 500 SPY ETF down three quarters of a percent on the day. But tech led the declines of the major indexes with the NASDAQ down about 1.1 percent. Small caps hit the hardest today, though, Ed.

1:25Ed Carson:The Russell down about 1.7 % or so, and the Dow down 7 tenths of a percent on the day. So we've had some explosive gains recently, pretty solid declines today. So where do things stand? I mean, the NASDAQ obviously has been the strongest part of the rally. I mean, it hit a record high yesterday. It's down, but only giving up some of the gains. We saw Well, software, and we'll look at that, that did fine. But other areas, other growth areas did not. Look, I mean, treasury yields and oil prices were declining over the last several days and treasury yields today skyrocketed. Yeah, that's pretty eye-popping there.

2:09Yeah, there was an activity index hit a five-year high. It was above expectations. There was a treasury auction where they did those buybacks that was talked about. They're not that big and And there's just not, bond markets just aren't that impressed, honestly. Now the markets are expecting two more rate hikes this year. I mean, the second one's more, you know, more of a close call. But that's a shift there. Yeah, we are up at the highest. We're above that. We're at the highest levels, I think, since 2007. Yeah, and it's a long, long trend up there. That's just sapping things. I mean, again, it's not saying it's the worst thing.

2:49but it's like running up even just a gradual hill is a lot less fun than running down a gradual running down a gradual downhill and that's that's the situation here and you don't necessarily need to know that what the yields are doing i mean we had a discussion on this on ivd live you don't necessarily need to know i mean it's nice to know but you know the markets have been relatively resilient given the rise in yields and oil over the last several weeks and they were quick to rally when oil especially dropped and yields were tame. So I'll take that if we can have those things. But obviously, if yields and oil keep rising, that's just not going to be great for the rally.

3:27Ed Carson:So in terms of, excuse me, levels that we want to see the NASDAQ hold, what are you looking at, Ed? Yeah, I think the recent highs, I mean, it's already back below the all-time highs. Okay, fine. But I guess the highs, you know, that's from several weeks ago, that was really nice, that whole area in there. I'm trying to hold they are reasonably close to that. And, yeah, I mean, then there's more levels. There's always the next high, and then there's the 21-day line. So there's always another level. But, yeah, I just want to see that resilience as much as possible. But, yeah, it's not too concerning here.

4:04It's just that you just have to be just sort of be ready for things. And there's just the geopolitics or whatever. However, the markets are extremely sensitive to, I mean, stock markets are extremely sensitive to what bonds and oil are dealing right now.

4:18Ed Carson:Exactly. And I think if you strip away the headlines and you're just looking at the move that we've had right from that Fed day to yesterday, that was such a huge move in a short time. So to see give back, obviously, you know, long investors don't ever like to see a down day, but, you know, they do happen. And I think in the context, even just technically speaking, it's not abnormal to see yet. Obviously, we don't want to totally round trip, like you said, undercut the 21-day line. So we'll be watching to see if the weakness continues and if so, how much. Yeah. And this is also a reason why we talk about adding incrementally.

5:01Trying to get in as quickly as you can with some reason, but just doing it incrementally. If you waited till just the last two days to do it, well, you're disappointed with this rally. And so, yeah, so that's why we try to talk and try, you know, not go crazy and do it incrementally. So because obviously we've had a lot of head fakes, but yet. But this is why you want to get some momentum going in there because there'll be days like this.

5:26Ed Carson:The questions that matter most are about what happens next. Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market where you can trade on elections, the economy, finance, crypto, sports and more. Download Polymarket. Use code W20 for a$20 bonus on your first trade. 18 plus. Trading involves risk of loss. Terms apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Yeah. And like you mentioned, there were pockets underneath the surface that still looked really good on a down day today. So very notable technical strength, which we will get into. But let's continue with our analysis of the major indexes. Here's the S &P 500 still holding above its 21-day line, even with today's give-back day.

6:03Ed Carson:The Dow remains in a weak position. It's now back at the lows from just a couple of trading sessions ago, the lowest levels in a while here, Ed. We have that marked low from a couple months ago that we are testing once again. And then small caps, of course, no surprise with the weakness here. Similar situation, testing the lows from a couple of trading sessions ago. And then, you know, that also coincides with levels going back to June or so. Also want to get your quick thoughts on RRSP. Nothing really new to report, but just still keeping a tab on the week breadth. Yeah. And I think I was actually going to suggest putting that in there because they're all basically very close to the recent three-month lows or whatever lows they are.

6:53So yeah, there's week breadth. On the flip side, growth stocks, not today, but growth stocks over the last week or so were generally rising in unison. You know, your ARX, but your various sectors were all rallying to like the SMH, the IGV, the XBI. Again, not necessarily today, but so at least there was breadth in the growth area. So that's one reason as opposed to, oh, you know, the NASDAQ rising for a couple of days, but one day chips go up and then the, but SOFA goes up the next day. And it just was very hard over those few weeks. So I'll be honest, I don't need all the stocks to go up. If I see a good chunk of stocks consistently trend higher, not every day, but consistently trend higher, I can make money off of that.

7:36And I think a lot of investors can make money off of that. So, you know, weaker breadth. But on the other hand, there, you know, over the past week, there has been leadership breadth, it feels like, at least in the growth area.

7:48Ed Carson:Yeah. Yeah. And that's why I think the top down and bottom up approach is great because, of course, the index level action is very important for us trend followers. But also, if you're screening for stocks that are showing that relative strength, then you will find those pockets that are standing out on a day like today. And I think even with chips down 1 % on the day, inside day, after that streak of gains, holding right at that key round number at 600, although probably for ETFs, you know, a little less relevant than individual stocks. But you do have those round numbers that are key for investors.

8:31Ed Carson:And then you mentioned IGV. So let's take a look at software. Some nice outperformance on a down day up 1.3%. Yeah. So this is acting well. And so, yeah, it's been trending up. There are a lot of software names, leading names who are doing well. And just on SMH, there were a lot of individual names that look a lot like SMH, which is more relevant. You're right. It's less important with ETS, but there were a lot of stocks that had done this. And you could argue, well, if we pause here for a couple of days or a few days, that could be very constructive. It's always... So, you know, one down day can be...

9:02So, yeah. But yeah, this held up reasonably well. That was a big gain over you know, five or six days. All right.

9:09Ed Carson:Well, one area that wasn't looking so good today, Ed, the biotech sector. Look at XBI down 4 % on the day after signaling an early entry just in yesterday's session. Yeah, I'm not sure really what was the real negative thing out there, but all the biotech ETS were down, not as badly as this one, because this one was looking really bullish. I mean, that says, oh, wow, here you go, right off the 50-day, right off the trend line, and then wham. So, yeah, that's disappointing. And so, I can imagine some people, you know, in certain names being shaken out. There were definitely some weakness in individual names.

9:50Ed Carson:Mm-hmm. And then we also want to just take a quick look at the gold miners. Here's a look at gdx similar technically in that it had an early entry in tuesday's session uh off of the 21 day not the 50 day though here uh but down 4.4 percent on the day yeah you combine the yields and also the dollar i mean that was that that big run the run we had for a few months well look you know especially late july through late april august just horrible action for the for the dollar but It has really come back. And that combination with the yields, I mean, it's really—honestly, you could argue that gold miners have done exceptionally well because they have not given up all the gains.

10:37So, again, it's resilient in that regard, but a lot of headwinds suddenly for gold.

10:44Ed Carson:Yes. Let's now take a look at three individual names from today's session on our radar. Here's a look at Palantir at 3.7%, triggered an early entry a couple of sessions ago, and today clearing a prior high at 188.37. So arguably actionable from that perspective. Other traders might view this as a bit extended here now. Ed, where do you sit in that? I think you could be buying it today. I mean, yeah, there was an early entry. This one was not easy because it wasn't clear cut necessarily. But you could treat this as sort of another high handle to the prior base. Or if you look on a weekly, this sort of works as a handle to the larger consolidation going back 10 months.

11:34And I think that one looks, okay, that handle looks pretty good in that perspective. That's a pretty big base, sort of finding support of the 10-week line, prior base. relative strength line is the highest of 20 to 2026 i think i think it's over the highest since maybe late january depending on where it ended up uh so yeah there's a strength we know the fundamentals have been great i mean but this has been a stock that you can't just trade i mean you can't just trade on fundamentals because for the longest time it was selling off but uh impressive action uh last few days and yeah it it had some fake out shakeouts kind of thing but that was the market for you, but it held up reasonably well, especially given that huge earnings gain.

12:15And yeah, the last few days has really, really showed some strength.

12:20Ed Carson:Yeah, that huge earnings gain, definitely putting it back on our radar. That day, let's see, it was up about 30 % in early August. So a little bit of a digestion since then. And like you said, It hasn't been easy. It's been a little messy. But today, triggering a potential buy point or an add-on area for traders who were getting in when it crossed that 180 level or even when it was around the 21-day line. This message comes from Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on an elegant Viking longship with thoughtful service, destination-focused dining, and cultural enrichment on board and on shore.

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13:12Ed Carson:All right, moving on, a notable technical move from Palo Alto and other names in the cybersecurity group. Ed Palo Alto here up 5 % on the day, clearing a trend line, surged a couple days ago on the 14th of September to retake the 50-day, tightened up, and now clearing the digestion over the last couple of trading days. Yeah, sort of like a pseudo handle, short-term high, the trend line got above the high from a few weeks ago. So even beyond that. So it's all very, you know, but while not being crazy above the 50-day line, that's one thing is that it just seems like it was a clear entry. It's like it's higher than I would like, but I mean, you know, they probably could have gotten within 10%.

14:03But, you know, that in general, there's some clearest levels. Like if it went, you know, well below the recent highs, I think that would be worrisome, you know, in that regard. You know, went below yesterday's low, maybe that would probably be where you'd want to be selling out, you know, for sure, because you'd probably be at 7 % or 8 % at this point. But, yeah, I mean, look, cybersecurity is doing really well. and this one I thought just made a really nice move today. You know, I'm a little worried about the fundamentals. It's not the most amazing growth. I think people are expecting that the AI tailwind is going to take off for a lot of these names.

14:41We just haven't really seen it yet, but people are anticipating it. So earnings will be coming up not too long. There'll be others that may be before that. But yeah, I thought this one made a real nice move today.

14:53Ed Carson:Yeah, I like the setup here. Really interesting from a technical perspective there. But fundamentals, like you said, not quite that top tier level that we like to see. And then looking at the sector, there are a couple of different cybersecurity ETFs. hack among them. That was up 1.7 % today, recently breaking out of an ascending base. I'm in crowd strike, and I think the concern here for traders now is, hey, this is clearing an upper channel line. Is that the time to be locking in some profits in the short term? So we'll see. Can the rate of ascent continue at this new faster pace, or is it going to come back into its sort of regression area, the trend that it's had over the last couple of months.

15:50Ed Carson:We shall see. And let's go to NetApp. Ed up 1.8 % on the day, an inside day, but definitely hanging in there on a down day where a lot of tech names got hit, and this one did not. Yeah, this one rose. A lot of other names fell, but not badly. So there's plenty of names that showed nice support. This is back above an old buy point, which you argue is still relevant. I think at the end of this week, it will have a new base. So there's that. So there'd be that buy point. There's sort of maybe a handle forming or something handle-ish in that area. I think that whole 200 area would sort of work as a handle in that space in there.

16:33Yeah. So it's just this one has been holding up. It's setting up. The growth is solid. It's not amazing. are names that are definitely have higher name, stronger growth, but that also doesn't have as crazy of an ATR as some names. And that 4.91 includes that crazy day where it dived on earnings and then reversed higher. So that was sort of, I mean, generally this has been a tighter name. So again, you know, David Ryan makes the point, you should maybe often, there's still maybe an argument for buying things that you're not on pullbacks, but looking for those pullbacks, looking for things and always want to look for stocks that are showing resilience when the sector or the market is having a little bit of trouble.

17:14And, you know, so this was just a name that I think should be on people's watch list. I don't know. I mean, you could have bought because it's in a buy zone. I think the 200 level at this point seems like a pretty clear resistance area that maybe people want to wait for.

17:27Ed Carson:Yeah, absolutely. A couple of things that I want to point out. First, the industry group, right? In a very strong industry group, computer hardware group ranked number two out of the 140 some odd groups that we track in. And then also, I like the earnings line. Look at this. It is getting steeper. So showing that improvement in an already successful trajectory that it's had. And then I like the relative strength line over the last couple of months. You have that space between the relative strength line and its moving averages. I know that's something that our senior market strategist, Mike Webster, really likes to see.

18:06Ed Carson:So has a lot going for it and one to keep track of. So thanks for bringing it to our attention today, Ed. Thank you. All right. Well, we'll leave it there for today. Thanks again, Ed. And thanks everyone for tuning in. That's it from us. And we will be back with more tomorrow morning on IEBD Live, investors.com slash IEBD Live for all the details of our daily morning live stream. We will see you there. And then the team will also see you back here after the close tomorrow. Just a programming note. I am out until next Thursday. So signing off briefly, just a little vacation. People always ask us where we go.

18:50Ed Carson:We're people too. We take time off. We're not here every day. I will, except for Ed. He's here most days. But that's it for now. See you back here next week. And the team will see you tomorrow. Thank you.

19:35Ed Carson:The questions that matter most are about what happens next. Will the Fed cut rates or how far does Bitcoin run? Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market where you can trade on elections, the economy, finance, crypto, sports, tech, culture, and more. Each market asks a simple question. Will this outcome happen or not? As sentiment shifts, markets move, giving you real-time information on where the market believes things are heading. Download Polymarket and use code W20 for a$20 bonus on your first trade. That's code W20. 18 plus trading involves risk of loss. Terms apply not available in all jurisdictions.