Stocks Rise Into Jobs Report. Amazon, Netflix, Shopify Flash Buy Signals.

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0:25Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Thursday, September 4th. It's Alexis Garcia here, and the major index is posting some healthy gains going into Friday's job report. And here with me to help break down all the market action today is IBD News Editor Ed Carson. Ed, how's it going? All right. I wasn't sure about that. Things froze for a little bit, but we're going to keep rolling. Amazon, Netflix, and Shopify all flash buy signals. So definitely want to take a look at that. All right. Well, you know what I say. It's better off, Ed. You know what I mean? I'm glad to have you here today.

1:04And you know, despite a rough start to the week, We've seen some really great market action today. We do have those jobs numbers coming in tomorrow. So what are your thoughts on the current market action? Yeah, I mean, things are going fine. There was a little bit of uncertainty a few days ago, tariff uncertainty, maybe uncertainty about AI, but those fears have faded. I mean, they could always come back, but they faded again. And the economic data that we've so far this week have pointed to, yeah, the labor market's weakening, maybe not falling apart. That's pretty much what traders want to hear.

1:37I mean, honestly, they want to see the economy growing, but growing slow enough that the Fed cuts rates, and not just on September later this month, but maybe again and maybe again again. So things are going well. The S &P 500 hit a record close. There were definitely stocks slashing buy signals. This could still be a head fake if the Jaws report, if the market reaction is negative. All these stocks and all these indexes that have been moving toward record highs that could easily fall back. But definitely, definitely nice action today. And as you mentioned, we'll look at some stocks flashing buy signals.

2:11But first, let's check in on the major indexes. The S &P 500 closing up eight-tenths of a percent today. The Dow up almost eight-tenths of a percent as well. The Nasdaq finishing the day almost one percent higher. And small caps leading the way up more than one percent today, Ed. So let me get the screen share here up and let's take a look at the S &P 500 because, as you mentioned, record close today here, Ed. So we're getting close to this or we're at around the 6 ,500 level of that round number. So what are you expecting to develop here? Well, I mean, we've seen this nice rebound this week after basically coming close to testing the 10-week line.

2:56so we're basically at record highs a few points from an intraday high you'd like to see that trend continue there's big earnings tonight and then the jobs report tomorrow so that could upend things but yeah this is really positive action and you can sort of squint it's easier on the NASDAQ but on the S &P you can sort of squint and see sort of a range for the past few weeks we've sort of been going sideways in a choppy fashion and that's been difficult because at times the market looks like it's going to go then it comes back down. It's like, oh, no, here we go. I better sell. And so chopping markets are difficult because, you know, if you buy when things start moving and then you sell when they start falling apart, it's just a difficult environment.

3:35But maybe we're ready to get moving again. Right. Well, let's jump on over to the NASDAQ composite then, Ed, and maybe we can see this a little bit better. But this one, again, almost up 1 % today, closing in the upper part of that range here. So thoughts here? Yeah, this one's clearly in a range. I mean, this one, there's been no doubt this has just been a sideways range. Nice action here. Very close to breaking out again. I mean, to breaking out, to moving on, you can sort of see the things poised. A lot of stocks are setting up. Some stocks are moving out. It's a positive environment. Again, you know, investors may have wanted to take advantage of some things today and just over the last couple of days, but also be ready to pull back because, again, That's what makes the sideways market quick because you don't want to ignore positive action, but you don't want to be too excited either until you really make it clear that we're going on a new leg.

4:30But nice, nice move here. And let's take a quick look at the Dow today. This one, again, also up about eight-tenths of a percent. Nice, strong move here. So thoughts here on the Dow? Yeah, I mean, this is interesting because there are some tech names in the Dow, but they're not really that positive. CRM was a loser today. It came off lows, and NVIDIA is gigantic. But that one, I mean, I guess that edged higher, but it's still sort of stuck below the 50-day line. So the fact that the Dow was able to make this kind of move, there is some breadth out there, which we'll also see with the Russell 2000 and the equal weight ETS.

5:08We're seeing some solid move there. You know, we're all at record highs, essentially, on all of these. We could very easily hit record highs on all the major indexes tomorrow with a positive reaction to jobs. All right, let's take a quick glance at small caps here, Ed, up about 1.3 % today. And again, in the upper part of that trading range. Yeah, it looks like we're right around where, you know, basically at eight-month highs or whatever it is. So very, you know, this has been leading for a little while now. And it always seems like every time it leads, then it falls apart. But it's been going for a few weeks here, again, showing that breadth.

5:50And speaking of breadth, let's take a look at the QQEW. That's the NASDAQ 100 equal weighted index. Nice move here today, up about eight tenths of a percent, flirting with that 21-day line. So thoughts here, Ed? Yeah, this is the weakest index of like that kind of thing. So it's still below the 50-day line. It did lag the NASDAQ a little. It just needs to show some improvement. It wouldn't take much to look a lot better, but boy, it would just take one bad day and it would be undercutting lows again. So that was one reason why we were so concerned. It wasn't just the indexes. It was things like this that was showing some underlying weakness.

6:27All right. What about RSP? That's the S &P 500 equal weighted ETF. this one up about seven-tenths of a percent today, looking a little bit better than the NASDAQ equal-weighted. Yeah, it looks like a lot of the major indexes. It's just right around record highs. Strong action there. All right. Well, let's take a look at the 10-year Treasury yield, Ed. This one falling today about eight-tenths of a percent, hitting probably the lowest point here since April. So thoughts here. Yeah, four-month closing low. Actually, maybe it's right on the edge of getting even longer than that, but a four-month low.

7:04That's probably a factor, reason why we've had this bounce the last couple of days. We know like the lower interest rates fueling a lot of things out there. So yeah, that could turn around. It means that we're sort of expecting a sort of weakish, a sort of perfect jobs report from the perspective of the market. It won't be over. So there could be right for disappointment. That could have a rip up. But that trend has definitely been helping. And the trend has been there. It's not just the last two days. You can see the trend has been down for quite a while. With the ups and downs, there's always these ups and downs.

7:33But it's trending lower. And that's been helpful for the market. All right, Ed. Well, let's take a look at some sector ETFs, starting with the IBD50. That's ticker FFTY. This went up nine-tenths of a percent today. So thoughts here, Ed? Yeah. And there are some big names up a lot and there are some that were down a lot. But this is right at highs. Strong sign for growth. And what about the FAANGS ETF? This is, of course, all the FAANG stocks here. This went up nine-tenths of a percent. Again, looking pretty strong here. Yeah, it is. And they actually have some things that weren't doing so well.

8:16But, you know, Amazon, Netflix were a couple of winners. So some of the software names were drags in this. There's some things in there that aren't the FAANG stocks. But even so, this is right at record highs. So we're seeing speculative growth do well. We're seeing some of these mega caps do well. So definitely strength and growth, even though QQEW, oddly enough, is so weak. It is strange, but there's definitely strength that we're seeing in growth. And you mentioned software. So let's take a look at IGV. That's the iShares Tech Software ETF. This one down slightly, about six-tenths of a percent.

8:54But again, clawing back to finish at the top end of that trading range here, Ed. So thoughts here. Yeah, it was nice to see that. A lot of the names that were down a lot came off low. So that's positive. But this one is considerably below the 50-day line. So I want to see that strength. and looked like we were getting there a week ago, but fell right back down. So got to get above that. Right. What about SMH? That's the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. This went up 1.2 % today and another one coming off lows here, Ed. Yeah, that's been doing well. You know, we'll see what happens tonight with Broadcom and if that can push things higher.

9:36But yeah, this one's been acting pretty well. maybe provides an opportunity in the next day or two. Let's hop on over to ITA. That's the iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense ETF. This went up about eight-tenths of a percent. Nice move off the 21-day line here. So what are your thoughts on this one, Ed? Yeah, there's a lot of aerospace names that are doing quite well. It's one of our top-rated group sectors. So just definitely whether it's something like ITA or just looking around, there's a lot of stocks that are setting up in this sector. So it's not just tech. An investor should be aware of that.

10:12It's not just tech. Let's take a look at home builders. That's XHB. This one up over 3 % today. Add a nice strong move here going back above this previous buy point. So what are your thoughts here with XHB? Yeah, there's a lot of momentum for it. There's expectations of rate cuts and maybe some other things that are going on. But yeah, when home builders get on a roll, they can really move. And so, oh, it's homebuilders and people glaze over when we talk about homebuilder stocks. But they really, they can be really strong performers. They definitely seem to be, after making a run, they've paused and look like they're ready to go.

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11:25You mentioned Amazon. This one, a nice move today, up about 4.3%. Again, closing in the upper part of that trading range. Some nice volume today too, Ed. So what are your thoughts here with Amazon's chart? Yeah. On a daily, you could probably do a downward sloping trend line from 236.53. The 234 level, it's also clearing. It bounced off the 50-day line. So there's a lot of reasons for early entries. I believe this is the highest close in the last several months as well. So it's above basically all of that. On a daily chart, it looks really messy. There's a lot of wild volatile action. But then if you go to a weekly chart, it's a flat base.

12:07There's actually a lot of tight trading action. There's a tight pattern in there. So once you get past that first week where it sort of tumbled off, it's come back nicely. You could almost treat this flat base as a new handle to this bigger base. But I think it was definitely actionable. There was news today. There was this positive report about that. It's team up with Anthropic, a big AI startup, is helping it with its data center rollout and also helping it with Amazon's in-house chips, like all that. So it was just a positive report on that that really helped Amazon take off. And it's an upside reversal from, you know, it tumbled to start the week.

12:45Again, Tuesday did not look good at the beginning, but it held the 50-day, did it again, and now today strong. So probably shook some people out, but showing a lot of strength today. All right. Let's look at Netflix, Ed. This one, another nice winner today, up about 2.6 % coming above that 50-day line. Above the 50-day line, above the 12.51.16. Definitely an early type of entry. It was an upside reversal for this week as it fell below the last few weeks of trading. It was looking pretty weird. It was like, oh, boy, this is really falling from the 50-day line at this point. It did not look good at the lows.

13:20But that's a nice shakeout. And so coming through here, volume wasn't tremendous, but it was, you know, it's basically about average or getting close to it. So there was some improvement. So I definitely think it was actionable. There is higher buy points out there. But I do think in this kind of market environment, as long as, assuming we stay in a sideways pattern, but as long as you're sideways, I think early interest is really important. Because if you can imagine, if the market only is going to go up for a few days or a short period, you don't want to be buying a stock on day X, you know, several days into a market uptrend if it's just going to turn over like a sine wave.

13:51So early entries are even more important, but this one definitely was actionable today. All right. How about Shopify, Ed? This one up 3.5 % today. And again, coming back from these lows under the 21-day line. Yeah. So it has an emerging consolidation. It doesn't have it yet. It would have been nice if it had held longer, but it eventually found support around the 21-day line. And it was interesting that on Tuesday, on a weekly chart, it almost touched the 10-week line. So it's basically, you know, it's pretty close to that, but ended up closing above the 21-day line. So it's a big upside reversal.

14:29Definitely, I could have seen people getting shaken out of this stock. So today's move, clearly above the 21-day line. On a daily, you can also see it sort of broke a trend line. It's a fairly steep trend line, not as steep as it was maybe previous week or so. Got above some short-term highs. So this could have been a place to do it again. You know, there's still some resistance still could get turned away. But, you know, it found support where it wanted to. It rebounded where it needed to. The volume wasn't tremendous. But you're seeing the blues in the last few weeks have been a little bit better than the reds for the most part.

15:04So I think this was another one that you could have bought today. All right, Ed. Well, those were the main ones you had for us. But we do have some earnings today, starting with Broadcom. So let's just check in there. This one finishing the day up 1.2%. Looks like it's down about 1.2 % after market here. So what do you know about earnings here and what's going on with this chart? Yeah, they narrowly beat views. I don't know much more than that, you know, how they're going here. So it looks like they guided a little bit higher on Q4 revenue. So we'll just see what people were hoping for. But just down a little bit.

15:46If it moved a little bit higher, like there's a trend line. It bounced off the 50-day line, but there's earnings coming up. You can see a trend line there. It just showed a little strength, but who knows? There's a good chance this will end up up 10 % or down 10 % of earnings. So I don't know if it'll provide that easy entry or maybe it'll fall back. Argenix, though, AGX, that so far is a loser. I don't know all the reasons there. I thought it beat Fuse, but again, I haven't looked at the details there. But there's definitely some other names. Yeah, definitely. Oh, it missed on revenue. So that was part of it.

16:19Missed on revenue. Beat on EPS by a lot. There's definitely some other names. GWRE, Guidewire, they do insurance underwriting software. So this one's well, the 50-day line, but it's going to gap up just like it does a lot of gap ups on earnings. But sometimes it fades after earnings, you know, so that's something that can happen with that name. A couple other names, DocuSign, D-O-C-U. That hasn't been doing great, but it's bouncing today. It's a positive for software after the Salesforce news wasn't so great. And also Samsara, ticker I-O-T. That one is moving up quite a bit. But so that's a name.

16:58But still, that one's way down. So, but again, it's just something positive there. And Lululemon, we've seen some retail names and some consumer names do well. So Lululemon, when you're a trendy retailer that's no longer trendy, you can fall a long way, and it doesn't look like Lulu's done. Yeah, I don't know if you know, but big baggy workout pants are in. So Lulu's going to have to get on that trend maybe to push things higher. They'll get their zoot suit on a little bit. And one other name, Zoomies, Z-U-M-Z. It's an apparel name that we haven't talked about much, but it's been coming up. And you could argue that there's sort of a little handle there or something.

17:38So, again, some apparel names, it's like navigating which ones will do well in the tariff environment. Some are doing much better than people that expected just a few months ago. All right, Ed. Well, as always, thank you so much for your brilliant insights. And, you know, that's it for us today. We'll be back tomorrow morning with more market analysis starting with IBD Live. You can head on over to investors.com slash IBD live for all the information there. And Justin Nielsen and I don't know if it's Ed or Webby tomorrow. There's a lot of vacations happening, but I believe it's Justin Webby. We'll be back tomorrow for the extended version of stock market today.

18:20So check that out as well. Have a great day and thank you so much for watching.

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