Stocks Waver On Fed Before Huge Earnings, Trump-Xi; JPMorgan, Grab, REV Group In Focus

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0:25Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Wednesday. October 29th just two trading days left in the month of October we had the Fed meeting came and went today the press conference at 2 30 p.m. Eastern time as expected the Fed did cut their key lending rate by a quarter point no surprise there before we talk about what the broad market did today we closed a little bit off highs let me bring in our news editor Ed Carson who has got three stocks to watch. Hello, Ed. Yeah, it's a little, a lot of so many earnings are out there, it's hard to know what to look at. But I want to take a look at JP Morgan, Grab Holdings, and Rev Group.

1:05Grab Holdings, you know, that is a ticker symbol I am not familiar with. It's rare to stump me with a ticker, Ed, but we'll take a look at Grab in just a little bit. But before we do that, let's start by taking a look at the NASDAQ, which extended its winning streak to five sessions. Actually, a close up near highs, seeing the NASDAQ up about close to six-tenths of a percent. The rest of the market gave back early gains, not by a whole lot. Here's a look at the Dow Jones, which reversed lower. That looks lower by about two-tenths of a percent by the close. The S &P 500 also reversed slightly lower, but just closed in the, you know, Very, very close to yesterday's close, seeing it just fractionally lower here.

1:57The real story was small caps, which lagged down about 1%. Just like that, you've got a test of the 21-day moving average for the Russell 2000. So, Ed, we'll just go on the NASDAQ chart here, and maybe you can give us just a little bit of color as to what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said. There was a little bit of surprise in terms of how the Fed is maybe looking at a rate cut in December, but give us some color, please. Yeah, Fed Chief Powell said that a December rate cut is not a done deal. And he said, he may stress that it's far from it, in fact. And he noted that the Fed policymakers are very divided over what to do.

2:43And there isn't much data right now of the government shutdown. And I think they probably wanted, If nothing else, Powell wanted to push back because the market was basically expecting it. So you want to disappoint people as early as you can or at least give them some leeway. It's not clear that this was hawkish as a more like, whoa, I'm not sure. Like, it's sort of like, I'm not sure if I'm going to that party yet. You know, like just it's a couple months away. But the market has been pricing this in. And it is interesting. The 10-year treasury yield rose. The two-year yield rose even more. That was up like nine basis points, and that's more closely tied to the Fed rate outlook.

3:19Yeah, I mean, the NASDAQ did very well, but a lot of that gain was NVIDIA and Google. I mean, those two stocks were really leading things. You know, if you look at it, so while that's really strong, if you look at RSP and QQEW, it's definitely a different story. And along with the Russell, I mean, they're all showing you that underneath it all. Terrible breaths. Again, it was even worse today on the NASDAQ than it was yesterday. It was bad yesterday on the NASDAQ when it was up eight-tenths of a percent. Up again today, but the breath was even worse. So RSP, yeah, this is a little close below the 50-day moving average today.

3:57Below the 50-day. So there's more damage. Just looking at this chart, regardless of the RS line, just looking at this chart, you didn't know anything. You knew that there's damage to this one. And QQEW doesn't look as damaged, but it's just a lot, just a big underperformance. That's unusual to see a big gap between QQEW and – because we're talking about the 100. We're not talking about 3 ,000 NASDAQ stocks. These are still big companies in there. So it was definitely top-heavy. And the NAS – the rally has become more top-heavy. So, I mean, look, all the major indexes are pretty close to highs.

4:30Even RSP, a couple of good days, and it's at record highs. I don't want to make it like, oh, no, but it's just something to note that it was a weak day underneath it all. Yeah, no doubt about it. And, yeah, just going back to the NASDAQ here, we're just keeping an eye on the NASDAQ as to where it is in relation to its 50-day moving average. It's now 7 % above the 50-day line. I've seen the index 8, 8.5%. I'm sure it's gone a little bit higher than that, but definitely 6 % to 7 % is when you're in that area where you feel like the market might be ready to pull back. So we'll see if the NASDAQ runs into resistance here at this round number of 24 ,000.

5:16That could be a resistance level to watch, but five straight up days for the NASDAQ composite. Ed, do you contribute this big jump in the 10-year Treasury yield just because of the fact that Powell said that a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion? Is that why we saw this big spike in the 10-year yield today? Yeah, I think that's pretty much it. It was already creeping up a little bit, but that was pretty much the comment. And that pushed things up. And it's just something – yields have been coming down, down, down. Again, we're still in the downtrend. I mean, so, but, you know, it's, this was another reason why the market came up.

5:57And I think the Fed rate cut odds, they were 90 % or so yesterday for December. Last time I looked, they're now like 60 % or a little underneath that, actually back to 66%. So it's still likely, it's just not that given. I was going to mention that, that just yesterday, the market had already priced in a rate cut today. And it was also leaning very heavily towards a rate cut in December. But like you said, those odds fell quite a bit after the Fed press conference today. Let's take a look at FFTY Innovator IBD50, which outperformed again, Ed, as growth stocks. You mentioned the strength in NVIDIA and Alphabet, but a nice move for FFTY today up 1.9%.

6:52Yeah, nice, nice action here. That's for sure. Yep. Semiconductor stocks outperforming. You know, we mentioned that another big move for NVIDIA today, five straight gains for the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, SMH, up one and a half percent today. The kind of a software bellwether ETF. This is IGV under some pressure today. Maybe some enterprise software stocks came under pressure down 1.4 percent. And also we just wanted to take a look at KBWB, which is an ETF that holds a bunch of money centers. Looked like it was ready to poke above this 50-day moving average, but under some pressure today after the Fed.

7:43Yeah, so it still could bounce right back. Maybe there's a little test. We're going to look at JP Morgan in a little bit. That's obviously a big, big member of this. But yeah, just pointing that one out as well. All right. Excellent.

8:21That's MassMutual.com. Why don't we start by taking a look at JPMorgan Chase, JPM, and battling at the 50-day moving average. What do you see here, Ed? Yeah, I mean, this is holding right there. There's sort of a downtrend. If it basically rises above the highs from the last couple of days, I think it would be actionable. it's working on a base if it doesn't have one already on a weekly chart so it'll have it's got to be getting close the one thing is out there is that the you know that is that i mean look the growth is only so good and so it's only going to go up so much and it's had a decent run and the relative strength line hasn't been amazing but uh it's just that right now with a lot of stocks that we just don't know where they're going to go we're seeing a lot of movement after hours on earnings Here's a stock that's already gotten through earnings results and is in reasonably good shape right now.

9:20Yeah, we'll see if this base can keep setting up. And if JP Morgan continues to strengthen, we'll probably see that in KBWB as well. Ticker I'm not familiar with. Looking forward to hearing about Grab, G-R-A-B. And the company is called Grab Holdings, based in Singapore. poor. It's a low-priced stock. And what are we looking at for grab here, Ed? Yeah, they're sort of a big delivery firm. And they do some more of the things, but sort of a door-dash kind of delivery type of situation that you see really big. And it's probably the biggest market as Indonesia, but it's in Southeast Asia. If you go on a weekly, you see there was sort of a big base.

10:03It's a classic situation. We see this sort of like big base. Now there's a smaller base right at the top of that. It has pretty good earnings growth that's been sort of been strengthened the last few quarters. The sales growth has been pretty solid. So it's one way to play that thing. You know, it's, you know, the earnings sales growth has actually accelerated for a few quarters. It's supposed to slow in this latest quarter, but it wouldn't be surprising to see that beat as well. I definitely wouldn't suggest people be buying this before earnings because that, I believe, is scheduled for next week.

10:33But it does seem like, again, if you go on a daily, like maybe getting above some recent highs, there'd be a trend line entry within this emerging base, which should be there after this week. And it's just a different situation here. You can look at those fundamentals. It's turned profitable this year. It's growing really rapidly. So it's an interesting company. I was trying to find something a little bit different. Absolutely. It's a large cap. It's a large cap, too. $20,$24,$25 billion. market cap, only a$6 stock. Let's see what the shares outstanding here. Yeah, so this has got billions, several billion shares outstanding.

11:17So Grab Holdings, based in Singapore, interesting name here as it sets up near the 50-day moving average. Finally, let's take a look at an RV stock, REVG, a company called Rev Group. Trades about 800 ,000 shares a day. It is a small cap with a market cap approaching$3 billion. What do you see in Rev Group, Ed? You know, the fundamentals have improved. You can see the sales growth has turned positive, accelerated strong earnings the last few quarters. Earnings should be strong through fiscal 2026. You know, this one has a cut base. It looks like it's working on a handle here. I mean, we'll see.

12:06Earnings aren't, you know, aren't there yet. A few weeks. So it could be that this. Yeah. So that's several weeks away. Maybe it could form a handle here. That would be ideal, I think, if it could do that after moving up. It's just another name here. I will say that the group hasn't done particularly well. This one has really outperformed. So it obviously has things that are doing special, whereas, you know, some other names in the group just haven't made this kind of advance. But this is just an interesting name in that regard. It's not there yet. I do think a handle would be really nice to see on here.

12:41Today's fall wasn't great, but it was on light volume. And it really wasn't that out of line with what most stocks were doing today. Yeah, well, RV Group ranks right in the middle, right in the middle of our 197 industry group rankings. So Rev Group, interesting name in the RV Group on a nice uptrend here. We'll watch how that base takes shape. So I do have a lot of notable movers in after hours trading. You want to start with the good news, Ed, with Google parent alphabet. Yeah, that one is really strong numbers. Yeah, it's doing quite well after hours. It was already extended from the short consolidation, just continuing on.

13:29On the downside, Microsoft is down. I didn't see anything negative. It seemed like it beat views fairly nicely. And we don't have guidance yet. That will come in like an hour. It usually comes on the earnings call. So I don't think that there's any guidance. This is coming down. It's in a cup base. So it, you know, maybe it pauses. So we'll see how that guidance is. Meta, they beat views as well, as far as I could tell. And they guided revenue in line. I haven't seen what they talked about for CapEx. You know, they actually give more guidance than a lot of the others out there. You know, but, you know, I think that they, I think that they, well, there might have been some weird gap number in there.

14:08So I'm trying to understand what was going on there. So they did give out some CapEx guidance. I don't know how that is, but it's obviously tumbling here. In terms of other big movers, eBay, which had been doing pretty well, that one is tumbling after hours. Don't know the reason for that. Garden Health, which was looking GH, which was looking really good in a bison, but earnings were coming up. Well, that thing is rocking, this cancer diagnostics firm on earnings. Service now, ticker now. It hasn't been doing well, but it's a big business. It's the first pure play software maker, really. And that's up.

14:43They also did a five-for-one split. We'll see if that can hold. Carvana, CVNA, that is down sharply. I don't know the reason why. I think we also have to watch out for credit concerns there or concerns about consumer spending. But those are some of the big names that are out there. There are so many names that are reporting tonight and tomorrow morning. But those are big movers. And I think the futures are down a little bit on some of the mixed results so far. Well, let's check in on QQQ very early and after hours. Trading CQs are only down two-tenths of a percent despite some earnings weakness for Meta and Microsoft.

15:20Again, let's see. Thursday after the close, we've got Amazon, Apple, and Cloudflare, ticker NET, all reporting tomorrow after the close. And pretty busy week next week as well with earnings. Ed, thanks for that after-hours earnings rundown. And it's an interesting start, GRAB. I'm going to have to do a little work on that one. I'm glad I grabbed your attention. That'll do it for today, folks. And just a reminder that Rachel Fox will be in the host chair tomorrow morning for IBD Live. And then Friday, Justin will be hosting. And we're going to be welcoming back a popular guest, Don Vandenbord. He is with Revere Asset Management, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager, and is a guy that likes to buy growth stocks.

16:23So always like having him on. So if you haven't checked out IBD Live yet, you can do that at investors.com slash IBD Live and get more information. It will be Ed and Alexis tomorrow for the Stock Market Today video. That'll do it for today. Have a great rest of the day, folks, and we'll see you tomorrow. Take care.

16:49Thank you.

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