Tariff Troubles Flare Up Again. Here’s What To Do Now. CBOE, Casey’s General Store, Cencora In Focus.

29:25We've got the thing where we talk about three stocks regardless of what. These aren't really. We might do this part a little bit quicker and get to the wrap up of charts. You know, when I'm just not that excited about it, but we have to talk about something. And so the RS line, you know, let's kind of go through this. RS line looks good in the very short term in that it's poked back above its moving averages. But you step back to the beginning of the base and it's weak, you know, relative to that. because it's so far off those highs. But at least it is in position where if you were buying it here with this being an alternative pivot, it's a little small cup with handle, and today would have been your alternative pivot, you could have bought some, and then using today's low as your stop, and then if it goes through the high of the handle, which was a week and a half ago, then you could be adding to it and still using the same stop area because that would be right at the 50-day.

30:21So if you are just dying to buy something or maybe you're in an account where you kind of have to, this is where I'd be looking. Something where I could define my risk and also a place that hasn't been running up, that it's totally entitled for a normal pullback. This isn't really entitled to a pullback. It might have one just because it's not super dynamic. But, yeah, it's a C quality. I'm just keeping it real. And I did notice that you chose all C stock. They all began with a C today. So here's CBOE. And you know what? Well, we'll get to it in a little bit. I'm going to throw kind of a little curveball your way.

31:09But let's talk about Casey's General Stores. Again, you know, in the supermarket, mini market space, This has a lot of convenience stores, 2 ,658. Still holding the 21-day line here. Seems like it's getting support. And I mean, it was up, but I guess that's about all you can say, right? I do kind of like this one. This is from a standpoint of if you just didn't use the indexes, which is a strategy. There is a strategy, not the strategy I use, but there is a strategy out there of just letting the charts tell you what to do on an individual stock basis, kind of doing a bottom up approach. Nothing against it.

31:54It's just not how I'm wired. And this would fit in there where it's kind of disconnected from the rest of the market. It doesn't seem to move with every wiggle and wobble of the market. It's more of what it's doing. I like how it's reacted to the last couple of earnings on there. and it's acting normal. It's not like this AI stock that has these wild moves. It's just kind of plugging along. This is something I think I can see Bill in. It's kind of reminiscent of, even though it's not a dollar store, 99 cent store from back in the day that the two of us would trade together and talk about it. We'd both go and shop at that store.

32:32Let's go to the weekly for a second. I was just thinking, you know, the tight action here, you know, three weeks tight recently and still holding pretty tight. Exactly. And the history of being tight. A lot of three weeks tight, yeah. Yeah, and it's kind of how we do it because it's a band of one and a half percent because we didn't do it in ATR terms. But even if we did it in ATR terms, we would still have this as tight action. And if you're dying to buy something, this is still a C-caliber stock because look at the earnings record. It's okay, but not great. Go down to the quarterly numbers. Okay, but not great.

33:14You know, it's not even 20 % earnings growth, but it's accelerating up to it. Sales are mediocre. And at least very stable, you know. It's got the earnings stability of six. So not great in terms of high numbers, but 15 % annually isn't, you know, isn't terrible. Yeah. So it's an okay stock and something you can kind of sleep. If I had a bunch of these in my account, I probably wouldn't have gone to cash. I would have just said, oh, I've got some slow pokey. But I had a bunch of heat in my account. So when you've got heat and you're going into something, just backing away makes sense. But I think this is OK, but still a C-caliber stock and why I went with C's.

33:54Yeah, no, absolutely. And then let's go ahead and also talk about Sencora, which, again, the health care space, the medical space. was one of the areas that did relatively well. And again, you take the indexes out of everything and this looks like very normal action and relative strength improving. Yeah, and it looked very similar to MCK. And I don't know if there's a merger or something that I just didn't get a chance to look into, but the trading action was similar. So definitely do some research on this one before you'd consider buying it because I didn't get a chance to do that. But it does look disconnected from the rest of the market.

34:42And that is your goal right now. You want non-correlated assets. So that can be sectors, it could be individual stocks, but you want to find things that aren't linked with what the NASDAQ is doing because you don't know what the NASDAQ is going to do. But you know what this should do. It should move higher because it broke out of that base, pulled back in, kind of in a sloppy way, but it is moving up in a bad tape. So it tells you there are some buyers there. Now, the downside is if the market turns and rips, these things are probably, you know, become dead money and probably come back in. Let's go to the weekly on this one.

35:22And yeah, this is like, you know, RS line isn't that great. Again, a C-caliber stock just kind of holding in there. I do like that earnings line, you know, a stable earnings line in there. But again, I did not get a chance to do the research on this one. So if someone's screaming like, oh, they're getting bought out or they're buying someone or whatever, wouldn't surprise me because it does look a little funky in there. Yeah. Another one where, again, 15 percent EPS growth rate, you know, not bad, but not not of the highest quality that we usually insist on. But that earning stability of two. Remember, the lower number, the better.

36:00It goes from one to ninety nine. So two is almost as stable as you can get. So but a lot of tight areas. So you you're not going to expect to blow the doors off of your portfolio with with with a position here. One other one I'm going to throw at you, Mike, of course, a lot of this was centered around China and their kind of control of rare earth metals. And so when you look at something like MP materials that has been one that we've been talking a lot about on IBD Live, one might say, well, gosh, this should benefit, right? And it certainly did today, was up 8.4%, but well off its highs. So what's your take on something like this?

36:45Is it just the news is too much, too much volatility, too much unknown to give this a shot? Well, look, I did have it. This was one of the last things that I sold today. I've been trading it off and on for the last month or so and been just frankly getting chopped up in it because it seemed like such a compelling story. and with the government getting involved in everything, I really thought this was going to be like a Bethlehem Steel type of move. And I was wrong. It just hasn't played out. And this base, on that day that it went up to the 82-23, I thought this was off to the races and it was just going to go.

37:23And then the very next day, how much was it down? Like 9 % or something? It was horrible because I was in it. 11%. 11%, wow. I mean, that's not normal or natural. And again, go back to, I think, the greatest book ever written, really, about the stock market, Jesse Livermore's How to Trade in Stocks. Well, Reminiscence is right up there, as well as, of course, Bill's book. But I think Jesse Livermore's take is the best one.

37:54And his real thing, he didn't use this phrase this way, but normal and natural is what I got from him. Like, look at the action. Is that normal or natural? It wasn't in today would have been a day you would have expected it to be at$90 given the news. So I think probably the players are in there going, wow, if this tweet turns around the opposite way, it could be down 20%. So if you're playing with this, you are playing with fire. It does have this wedgie feel up over the last week where it hasn't really shaken people out in a big way. It's kind of gone up. it just doesn't it was a reluctant I was reluctantly selling I think it was one of the last things I was still holding on to a piece of it I'm like nah you know I could wake up on Monday and see this at$60 or$100 yeah this step aside for a second if it tightens up here and forms some sort of structure in and around 80 that I can trade off of that's great but right now I don't know that I'm wrong until it goes down to the 50 day.

38:58And how far is that 50 day from here on a percentage basis? Let's see. About 12.3%. Yeah. So, you know, I already did that. I don't want to do that again. And as you said, I mean, that's, it's not like, oh, it's gonna, you can't count on it drifting down there very nicely. That can happen in a day or in minutes, with the wrong tweet or news item. So yeah, it's just, what's your edge? How do you get an edge on that? Unless you've got inside information, which that's illegal, don't do that. Okay, Mike, are you ready to share your screens? Oh yeah, let's do that. Okay, I'm gonna go ahead and stop my share, turn things over to you.

39:42And we're gonna start with kind of a stripped down version. Don't you got it? Hold on one sec. Perfect. This is always the hardest part of my mind. I can see your IWM right now. Okay, perfect. Okay. So here's our Bob Weir. Take a step back, look at the bigger picture, look at the weekly chart, and I'm going to ask you the easiest question of the session. What is good about this candle? Full-bodied. Full-bodied water. Look, a candle like this is terrible. Let me just blow this up even more. it gives you a clear expectation that it should go lower with a big pink bar meaning a close lower than it than it opened opened up here closed down here with the tiny top wick with no bottom wick but things can you know this was a terrible looking candle over here and then the next thing we had it was an inside so that would be you know good if we can just get an inside week next week.

40:42But no, it's like kind of, you know, a lot of these bad candles in there. Sometimes you can just pull out a good candle the next week. But given this, it's a warning sign. So what we're doing right now, going through all these charts, is just trying to paint a picture to us of what's good and what's bad in each one. Same thing here on the NASDAQ, same basic feel, an outside bar or an outside candle on a weekly basis means even more than on a daily basis, obviously. So we traveled above and below last week's high and low and closed below it. Let's take a look at the IWM. Man, that looks bad because you're looking at that spread versus all the other spreads.

41:28Yeah. And it seems like sticks out. Yeah. This was the other one that looked like it. At least it little had a little bit of a wick off of the bottom there. But let's hope for something like that. But hope isn't a great strategy. All right. We're going to go with our moving on to our regression. So let's start off with SPY. And again, we have these in here starting off on May 12th and going out 50 trading days, which was July 23rd, I guess. and you can see that we've now broken um our uh one standard deviation in a big big way here and so this looks like you know it's going to be thrown out it had been hugging this rather than bouncing up there which had been bothering me we're going to talk more about that in a second um but this looks like it's um it's broken and usually we say oh it can spend a little you know a little bit of time below that solid green line and still be okay and come back.

42:30But I guess there's a distance thing too. There is a distance. This is an art with a science. It's a blend of the two. And I will want to put an actual number to it. So if we were to bounce right back Monday or maybe Tuesday, I'd say, okay, maybe if it gets back in that line right away, okay, it's back on, But it looks like it's broken, frankly. And let's take a look at that was the composite. And IWM, this is just breaking now. This is using, I have a different date on here. This is using the time that it came down on August 1st and going out to today, which I think you had told me was 50 days.

43:1350 days a day. Okay. So this is breaking through. It's still alive. we wanted to get back above this line here. So that would be around 242 and change. Let's call it 242 and a half would get you back where you'd be gunning it if that happens right away. And we'll see how that plays out. And now last week, or for the last couple of weeks, I was toying around with changing the regressions of where the anchor points on there. You never want to change things mid, you don't want to change a strategy or a style mid-trade. So I was just saying, you know, I'm going to do it. I'm going to observe it and study it, but I'm not going to really use it.

44:01But I did want to put those in there. For SPY, I was using an alternative of also that August 1st, which with the end date of today, so 50 trading days, because it seemed as if this was a new trend. Like we were, let me go back to the old one. this was the old SPI using the anchor points in May and in July. And you can see that at this point on August 1st, it just started a different type of slope. We were going at one angle. Now we were going at a different one. And I'm just trying to find some rules because I don't want this to be where when I'm bullish, I do it and I'm bearish, I do it a different way.

44:42That is a recipe for disaster. So I want hard and fast rules. But I thought I'd share. I talked about this with some folks at the event in Vegas that we had last weekend, which was a ton of fun, the IBD Founders Club. And so I just wanted to share it. Even with this, then it's breaking as well. And that's a pretty bad break. And I did it on the composite with those same dates. So with this, it could just come right back in here and move up. And then if this is our new channel, but again, this is just an observation, not something we're using for a real analysis. Hopefully that didn't confuse you.

45:25If it confused you, just pretend like you never heard it. Now let's, we'll go to our 50%. What was that? Men in black or something like that with a little like device. Yeah, just do the flash, right? We'll do the flash. So this is our 50 % retracement. I was trying all sorts of different ways earlier today. This is before I got this. ugly that I put this in with the September 25th low and then the high from this week and seeing if we are going to be able to stay in the Northern Hemisphere. When I did this, we were in the Northern Hemisphere and now we're not. We're all the way through the floor.

46:03So that is, last time I checked, not a good sign. And same thing with the composite. This one, we're down to the floor, but still we're not in the Northern Hemisphere. So we want to at least get above 22 ,650 in change. This is how I look at it. Just keep it very, very simple. In fact, let's go back to the SPY. On the most simplistic level, whatever news we get over the weekend, if it's truly good news, we will get up to the 664.18 and higher and start living in that area. If it's not really good news as the market interprets it, we'll just be in this area or lower. So that's how I like to use that.

46:49Let's see if I have the IWM. Same thing for the IWM that came all the way down to its floor. We'll go to our next one. This is our levels, right? Let's see. Oh, for SPY, I decided to take a bunch away just to make this as clean as possible. And so with this one, we just have our high up there. We went through this low, which was you could either use the low from the 25th or you could use the low from the 17th. We're through there. And then our next key level would be down here on August 1st, which is a mile below. There are other levels in there, but again, I was trying going to simplify this.

47:27And then the NASDAQ, same thing. We're down to this level that you could either use the 25th low, or you could give it a little bit more room down to the 17th low. Then our next one, this one is really debatable because you can have multiple lines in here. On this, I was using the low of the 5th, but you could also use the high of August 13th. And they're both in the same general area, or you could have multiple lines and then a few other areas like the low of the 20th.

48:02Hopefully I don't start coughing. Just one sec.

48:09Live show, coughs and all. Yeah, someone got me sick in Vegas, so shame on you. I've been sick all week. You know who you are. Yes. No, I don't know. I forgive you. So here on the IWM, the low of the 25th was the key level there that I marked, and we're down there, so we want to bounce up from there. I'll go out to our next thing. This is our very basic—oh, you know what? I have one before that. Here's our one with all of the moving averages. This is the new one with all of the Fibonacci levels, so from a 3 to a 5 to an 8 to a 13 to a 21, 34. Fibonacci moving averages, not Fibonacci levels. Yes.

48:53And all exponential. And I just do this as a way of seeing are they trending the right way or are they stacked properly? And when you start to roll, the short-term ones start going through the intermediate-term ones. And that's what we're seeing here. And it's just a visual that I like to have. And I've been doing this for a long time this way, but just not really sharing it. I thought it was time to share because sharing is caring. Same thing on the composite. And let's take a look at the IWM. That one looks a little bit ugly. On there. And then anything to say about that while I cough? No, I mean, you know, basically, I think the theme has been very clear that there's just a lot of ugliness.

49:37The charts look ugly. Levels, you know, not just gone through the levels, but like zoomed past, you know, a lot of these areas. All in one day. There's the quick and the dead. So you've got Spy here, which is my favorite one, the simplistic way of looking at things, and simpler is better, of just the 21 day on there. And we slice through it like it was vegan butter. And let's take a look at the composite. Same thing there. Same thing on the IWM. Same thing on the RSP. Same thing on basically everything. Okay, so now let's stop sharing that, And we are going to share our WebE RSI. And one of the things about the WebE RSI, of course, this is not the RSI that a lot of technical analysts know.

50:29This is the real simple indicator, just basically where are you at in relation to your 21-day moving average line and your 10-day moving average line. One of the things that you've been noting is as much as, you know, people have been talking about, oh, the market's extended, we're due for a pullback. Even my wife was telling me yesterday, you know, I'm hearing that the market's, you know, due for a pullback. And, you know, whenever whenever my wife is coming and telling me, you know, that means it's really, really out there. But according to a lot of your metrics, it really hadn't gotten that extended.

50:58It really hadn't. And I'll just tell you a little secret in the industry, what people do. People always say they look smart that way. Oh, we're extended. We're going to have a pullback of, you know, we're going to have a pullback sometime. But we don't have to have a pullback. So then they're right no matter what. Like, take a stand, man. Which one is it? Like, that's what everyone always says. And then, you know, they'll say, oh, I'm waiting for a pullback. A pullback happens. They don't like the pullback. And then it moves up. Then, oh, it's too extended now. We'll wait for a pullback. So just make a stand if there's a stand to be made.

51:31Sometimes there's not a stand to be made where you just don't know or you have to wait. In this case, we have to wait because we no longer have a WebE-RSI. It's off the charts. And that's the reason there is this is a metric down here at the bottom of your low versus your 21 day. This little histogram here. Now on today, there is no histogram because your low is below it. Now we'll start getting a if we really start coming down, we will start getting an orange one on here. And this is where your high is underneath your 21 day. and then we will talk about that in the future because that's a different way of looking at it.

52:10And I don't want to say the word oversold, but you can at least get a feel for what's normal and natural. Extend it to the downside? Extend it to the downside, I like that. So when you are looking at this and you don't have an indicator, it's giving you feedback, there is a warning sign because this is a trending indicator that I've designed for trends. and without something there, it's telling you there's no trend. So if you're a trend follower and this is your trend, well, you're waiting for a new trend. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. The same thing there. I think as Mick would say, he's waiting on a friend.

52:57And then let's take a look at the IWM. You're too young for that reference. Okay, you didn't catch it. That's fine. Um, I'll explain it to you after. So here's... I mean, I'm assuming when you say Mick, I'm assuming you mean Mick Jagger, but I don't, I don't recall the, I don't recall the song. Shame on you. Oh my gosh. What's wrong with you? Okay. So here's IWM, same thing there. Let's move on to our Bob Marley. Um, uh, let's see. Take a step back. Well, not really step back with this one, but it is looking at it versus the 18, um, month low. So this is to measure where you are versus your highs over an 18-month.

53:40I just totally misspoke. I'm sorry. I'm sick. Forgive me. So this is just measuring how far off your highs you are in terms of ATRs. The green area is zero to four ATRs. Yellow is four to eight. More than that is the red zone. So we're still in the green zone. But why I like to use this is it tells me, did it break character or not? And you can see the little moves down. And typically they stay, when it's healthy, it'll stop around the same general area. So it stopped here, then it stopped here, which was about the same area. Then it stopped here, which was about the same area. Now this time, when it should have stopped right in here, it didn't.

54:21and it just kept blowing past it, which is now down in and around the levels, a little bit worse than the August 1st one as ATRs offer high. So the good thing about that was we snapped right back from there. So we do need to keep an open mind that the last time we were down here using this one, we bounced right back. So that's actually our first encouraging signal. We've seen a ton of different charts, sliced a lot of different ways. And this was our first encouraging one. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. And sorry, the same basic thing here. This one's been a bit more volatile and coming down in, you know, close to the four ATRs of our high a couple times.

55:10And so we're now down in that area. So, again, a little bit encouraging with this is it's more normal and natural from this standpoint. Not ideal because it's volatile, but you can't say that it's broken character looking at this. When we go underneath there, then it would be, let's take a look at the IWM. Well, that's a little different because it's been moving up. Let's take a look at the RSP. Again, this one isn't as bad as it was on August 1st yet. So we're ending on a little bit of encouragement. It wasn't planned, but it is what it is. Mm hmm. Well, and so let's let's kind of, again, for guidance going forward.

55:54And again, you know, we're not giving buy recommendations or sell recommendations, but I think it's safe to say that this weekend is a good time to make your plan. Right. And you have to have a plan for both ways. You know, there's a ton of people out there that I'm sure are going to be saying, oh, of course, we're going to get a bounce. You know, this is overdone. And there's a lot of people saying, oh, well, this is, you know, just the beginning. And look, there's also a difference in timeframes, right? You might be looking at, okay, we could see some short-term weakness, but long-term, I'm bullish.

56:26There's still a whole AI rollout that is in its infancy in a lot of ways. So for next week or maybe the weekend plan, what should people be looking at? Well, you set it up nicely. So what I would do is do a plan, but be real with who you are and your style. If you're an active swing trader, you're probably very light or out. If you're a very slow position trader, you probably did nothing today, like very slow position trader. But if you were like a Bill O 'Neill position trader, you would have done a lot. He would have done a lot today. I know him. You used to see his sheets all the time. If I didn't do a lot today, he would have been very upset.

57:11And that was orthodox position trading that we would do, not swing trading. So you want to make sure that whatever you did today or didn't do was in line with your style of trading. Maybe you were tied up or traveling all day and you're watching this over the weekend. Or you're a surgeon or a school teacher or a policeman or woman or something where you're tied up all day and you can't take action during the trading day. and you're looking at this over the weekend, you're going, okay, what do I do? The reality is you can't go back in time and change anything. You can just do going forward and have a plan for each one of your stocks.

57:52It's very important. Rate each one of your stocks now. In fact, I would do it over the weekend because you have a clear mind. I always said, do your weekend work on the weekend because Sundays are better than Saturdays, but if it has to be Saturday, do it then. And gives you Sunday, gives you a little bit of time mentally to kind of reset and then look at the charts and go with less emotions. Go, OK, where would I expect this to come in and where is it abnormal and put some plans there? It's not an all or nothing. You know, you can break up your trades now that it's free commissions. You can break that up into, you know, 10.

58:33There's nothing wrong with that. go, okay, I've got 100 shares. I'm going to sell 10 here, 10 here, 10 here, 10 here. And you can do automatic stops. And if you're busy, it's just set up for you. You can do good till canceled. So it rolls over to the next day unless you make a different decision. Yeah. And don't forget about those, obviously. That's probably the best for people who are indecisive. Now, I know there were a lot of people that got caught in the bear market at the beginning part of the year. And I've seen a lot of these people on Twitter and elsewhere who sat through that because, and they shouldn't have.

59:11It was a bear market. You don't sit through a bear market. And they got away with it and feeling really bright up here and didn't take any action back then and just saying, okay, I'm going to just buy every dip. Man, please don't do that. Like go back and study history, study the 90s. I think this is like the 90s. I think AI has a ton to go. I think we're, you know, we've got a huge bull market ahead of us. But in the short term, you can have little bears. You can have little intermediate corrections. You can have big bears. Look at, you know, study 1982 to 2000. That was a major bull market. And look at all of that time.

59:52You're not going to just want to stay with your gas pedal down the whole time. You would have your head handed to you. And you know, as well as I know, how bearish Bill would get along the way. Maybe this is a good time for you to tell the story of 1999 and the letter that he wrote and what happened after. Because it's very important for people to understand how he really was. Yeah, I mean, and it really just goes to show how quickly he could change. He wrote a bearish letter to 500 clients about how the summer of 1999. Institutional clients. Institutional clients, yeah. So this was not, you know, this was, you know, Fidelity.

1:00:32This was, you know, the big institutions. And, you know, he stuck his neck out there saying, I am very bearish. I think that the 90s have been great, but I think it's over. And then September rolls around or October and there's a follow through day. And literally like maybe a week or two after he told me he sent that letter, I was driving him to the airport and he's like buying all this stuff. And I'm looking at it. I'm like, what, you know, what's going on? And he's like, well, you know, we had a follow through day. And there were setups and there were things to buy. And if he had stuck to his guns and said, well, no, I sent this letter, it would look, you know, I would look silly if I didn't stick to my guns here.

1:01:13I would look wishy-washy. He would have missed out on a huge opportunity because between September and October and March of 2000, it was just a huge, huge move. you know, Qualcomm and, you know, what have you. There was just so many stocks that doubled more in that short period of time. So wouldn't you say he probably made more money, money, not percent, in that time from when you were taking him to the airport to the March top than in any other time during his career after he had flip flopped from being super bearish because the market was giving him those signals to being super bullish because the market was giving them those signals.

1:01:56I mean, over that period of time, maybe. But it's, you know, it's tricky because, right, 10 years later, and the accounts were all bigger. So it didn't take as much. It didn't take as much to make the same dollar amount. So that's true. You know, very interesting comments going on. There's a number of people in the YouTube comments that are saying, hey, take care of that cough, Webby. Someone was talking about how they were at the the economic conference that we threw, what was that, 25 years ago? Just asking, it was Larry Kudlow, I think that you were thinking of, that was one of our speakers there.

1:02:32A lot of people are thinking this is a whiskey, a whiskey type weekend, just in terms of dealing with the market. A lot of people saying a double. Drink water, if that is your solution. With lemon. And Andrew Huberman has a really good podcast out on what alcohol does to you. And I'm not one to preach, but just look into it. Yeah. Okay. Well, you've got some weekend homework, folks. Thank you, Webby, very much for your analysis. That's going to wrap it up for us this week. Again, we are looking forward to what happens next week in terms of whether on the upside or the downside, how to play it.

1:03:16And again, it's about protection, but at the same time being open to opportunities if they do present themselves. So I hope everyone has a great weekend. Get to that homework and we'll see you next week. Take care, everybody. Thank you.

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