In short
Weekly market wrap (Jan 16, 2025) focused on “extended” stocks, leadership divergence (small/mid caps vs mega caps), sector/ETF relative strength, and risk management for entries/exits.
Guests
Mike Webster, IBD senior market strategist (main guest/host).
Guest background
Market strategist at IBD; runs swing-trader style analysis emphasizing chart patterns, relative strength (RS line), and strict risk controls; uses Pattern Recognition software (Pattern Rec) and references long-built studies and Livermore-style “ShakeOut Plus 3” techniques.
Key claims
Many stocks are “extended,” making proper risk management difficult; mega caps lag while IWM (Russell 2000) leads; tight stops struggle in this choppy environment, so stops should be chunked/managed. Extended breakouts can “shake you out” before moves start.
Notable examples
Bloom Energy (BE) discussed as a deep “cup without handle” setup near a breakout level (147.86) but with high risk due to ~49% base depth; BWX Technologies (BWXT) as a tighter ~25% base “cup without handle” with nuclear/government-contract exposure; GE Aerospace (GE) as a defense/aerospace laggard still “in position” but with earnings risk; defense/legacy names like Lockheed Martin and RTX referenced; sector/ETF calls include ITA (aerospace/defense) and IGV (software) as notably weak.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Overview and Current Challenges
0:45 to 2:24
Analyzing the current market conditions and the challenge of extended stocks.
“And I'm joined by Mike Webster, our senior market strategist.”
Small Caps vs. Mega Caps
2:24 to 4:04
Exploring the differences between small caps and mega caps in current market dynamics.
“And then we've been having those, you know, those rotations that we've been talking about in the past, but But, you know, IWM, which I have a position in, that is the clear leader right now.”
Analyzing Key Stocks: SPY and Qs
4:04 to 6:10
A detailed look at SPY and Qs, discussing their performance and potential.
“I looked through all the mega caps and I just said, you know, they just don't feel ready yet.”
Risk Management in Trading
6:10 to 7:56
Understanding the importance of risk management strategies in trading decisions.
“But I'm still holding on to that and it's kind of a mixed bag.”
Market Recap and Stock Coverage
7:56 to 11:24
Recapping the market performance and highlighting specific stocks like Bloom Energy and BWXT.
“And, you know, I'm seeing that around quite a bit.”
Sector Analysis: IGV and ITB
11:24 to 14:06
Reviewing performance of specific sectors, including IGV and ITB, and their market implications.
“I do have a position in BWXT and GE Aerospace, speaking of the aerospace defense area.”
Market Sentiment and Risk Management
14:06 to 14:40
Learn about the risks of assuming a stock can't fall further and the importance of strategic moving averages.
“oh, it's down so much, you can't go lower.”
Analyzing Sector Performances
14:40 to 15:12
Discover how different market sectors are performing and their implications for investors.
“that you just really underweight or just completely stay away from.”
Diverse Performance in the Market
15:12 to 16:20
Explore the mixed performance of major stocks like Google, Meta, and others in various sectors.
“XLB getting hit a little bit today, down almost a percent and below the 21-day moving average line.”
Earnings Reactions Among Financial Institutions
16:20 to 17:44
Understand the varied reactions of banks to earnings reports and how that affects stock movement.
“This, of course, did get a pretty hard hit from one of its big components, Talon Energy, which was down 11 percent.”
Show all 33 chapters
Consumer Discretionary and Staples Trends
17:44 to 19:28
Analyze the performance of consumer discretionary versus staples amid market fluctuations.
“It feels like that's what 2026 has in store for us with the mega cap selling off and some divergences like this.”
Energy and Resource Sector Movements
19:28 to 21:21
Delve into the recent performance of energy, resource stocks, and their market impact.
“That was down a little bit less than two tenths of a percent.”
Navigating the Volatility in Metals and Miners
21:21 to 23:16
Learn about the volatility in the metals and mining sectors and the dynamics affecting them.
“XLE, which is very heavily weighted towards ExxonMobil and Chevron, this has been having kind of a new resurgence after a lot of choppy action here lately.”
Strategizing in a Difficult Market
23:16 to 24:12
Discover strategies for trading in a challenging market environment and managing risk effectively.
“As this got back above its 50-day moving average line, it's really kind of had a nice move since then.”
Exploring ETF Options in Hot Markets
24:12 to 25:48
Find out how to leverage ETFs in fast-moving sectors for potential gains.
“You know, as I was saying before, is breaking your stops up into chunks, having some tight and then some looser.”
Deep Dive into Bloom Energy's Performance
25:48 to 28:00
Gain insights into Bloom Energy's stock performance and the implications of cup and handle patterns.
“Well, let's take a look at some of the stocks as well that were on our radar.”
Understanding the Cup Without Handle Pattern
28:00 to 29:19
Learn about the significance and analysis of the cup without handle chart pattern.
“So anyways, with this one, I have a position in it.”
Analyzing Chart Breakdowns and Risks
29:20 to 31:39
Explore how to identify chart breakdowns and manage associated risks.
“So then the data that you get from that really tells you a clean story.”
Exploring Livermore's ShakeOut Plus 3 Technique
31:40 to 33:48
Discover how to implement the Livermore ShakeOut Plus 3 technique in trading.
“And I would wait for it to get back above 246.15 to prove itself to get back into it.”
Risks of Trading Deep Cup Patterns
33:49 to 35:34
Understand the risks involved in trading deep cup patterns and their implications.
“You know, you can, and Charles and I would always kind of debate.”
Comparing Alternative Energy Stocks
35:35 to 37:47
Compare and contrast the trading characteristics of different alternative energy stocks.
“I mean, that's a beautiful, that RS line into new high grounds.”
Evaluating GE Aerospace and Market Positions
37:48 to 42:04
Evaluate the current position of GE Aerospace within its market context.
“you know, it's either one way or another.”
Market Positioning of Laggards
42:04 to 43:32
Understanding the risks and opportunities in lagging stocks.
“This is still in position to be bought, but is it the laggard because it is still in position to be bought?”
Analyzing Defense Aerospace Stocks
43:32 to 44:52
Insights into key players within the defense aerospace sector.
“But the reality is there's a lot of heat in the defense aerospace area and a lot of ones that look a lot stronger.”
Weekly Market Overview with Charts
44:52 to 46:26
Using charts to gain insights into market trends and expectations.
“Webby, you've got some charts to show, so I'm going to stop my share and turn things over to you.”
Understanding Market Trends with Regression Lines
46:26 to 49:59
Exploring regression lines to interpret market behavior.
“Sometimes you'll get a lot of information.”
Using Retracement Levels for Stocks
49:59 to 52:14
How to apply retracement levels in stock market analysis.
“Those are your red and green lines that it wants to kind of hover around the white line.”
Identifying Key Levels in Market Charts
52:14 to 55:55
Recognizing significant price levels for market positioning.
“meaning the 50 % retracement is 670 and change.”
Understanding Moving Averages in Trading
56:00 to 56:58
Learn how to use moving averages and Fibonacci numbers to analyze market health.
“And if you're saying, what are all these charts for?”
Market Trends and Indicators
56:58 to 59:26
Discover the importance of market trends and how to interpret stock indicators.
“They're very powerful to use in a lot of different ways.”
Analyzing Pullbacks and ATRs
59:26 to 1:04:33
Gain insights into using ATRs to assess stock pullbacks and market strength.
“asking about the the platform you're using that was trade station and uh now you're switching over to TradingView.”
Navigating Holiday Trading and Market Risks
1:04:33 to 1:09:11
Understand the implications of holidays on trading and how to manage risks accordingly.
“Look at over here when this was moving up in the summer of 25.”
Introducing the New Beta Platform
1:10:01 to 1:11:54
Learn about the features and expectations of the newly overhauled trading software.
“that we want, like the WebE RSI and the regression and all the things that we go off and I'm using TradeStation or TradingView for.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Exchanges on the M &A and IPO landscape. Exchanges on the dynamics affecting global trade. For the sharpest analysis on finance, business and the economy, count on exchanges. The Goldman Sachs podcast. Listen now.
0:25Hello and welcome to another episode of the, well, what is the show now? It's Stock Market Today. I almost said investing with IBD podcast. It's the Stock Market Today video, our weekly wrap-up since it is a Friday. And this is actually a Friday before a holiday and a triple witching. So a lot of special things going on today. It is January 16th, 2025. I'm Justin Nielsen. I'll be your host today. And I'm joined by Mike Webster, our senior market strategist. How are you doing today, Mike? Hey, welcome to IBD Live. That's exactly right. Exactly. There's so many shows going on. We have so many videos.
0:58Sometimes it's hard to keep them all straight. But let's let's dive right into it. We've got a market where the funny thing is for as much as we were complaining about the fourth quarter and it was a rough fourth quarter. We started the year and, you know, we're always a little nervous at the start of the year. There's a lot of cross currents that happen, something that we've been talking about the last couple of weeks between, especially after a big year where people are like, oh, you know what? I want to wait a little bit and just push that tax bill a little bit further down the road. Now that we've gotten kind of a few weeks under our belt, it almost seems like there's this market where so many stocks are extended.
1:38There's a few things that are maybe getting rotation benefits, but some are catching, some are not. And a lot of the heat, that's where the fire has really gotten hotter. Yeah, I think you said it perfectly, Justin. We've got the mega caps that are, you know, under, you know, base building or under distribution in general and the small caps and the heat just really moving, you know, a lot of them just really moving and they move so quickly, you know, on a big day, they'll be up three, 7 % in a blink of an eye. And then all of a sudden they're out of position. So it's, it's making it tricky to buy things, um, in the proper positions because they, they just, they're moving so quickly.
2:24And then we've been having those, you know, those rotations that we've been talking about in the past, but But, you know, IWM, which I have a position in, that is the clear leader right now. We've talked a million times about how IWM will set up and start looking good. And just when you're convinced it's really going to go this time, they pull the rug out. But you know what? A trend is your friend until the end when it bends. You know, that old saying, or I probably butchered it, but it's something like that. Look at that low versus your 21 day. You know, how many days you're up there and that 21 day being above your 50 day.
3:02I mean, that's what we look for with trends. Now, let's pull up the FNGS, which is the mega caps or one of the ETFs that do the mega caps. And that's the complete opposite. That high is stuck underneath the 21 day. So you're seeing this major difference there between what's going on with these small caps and then what's going on with the real, a lot of the really mega caps. And then you've got like SPY and Qs and the NAS that kind of stuck in between all of that. So yeah, we can go to SPY. It's like SPY wants to go, but it has a drag of the mega caps that just the way the math works out, if those are selling off or not participating, it's hard for that one to really lift.
3:49But SPY looks much better than let's go to the NASDAQ. You want the Qs or the NASDAQ? I need the Qs, that's fine. And the Qs, I really thought yesterday morning that that was the chance for it to really go. In fact, let's go to the NAS at Composite because then you don't have the stuff at the bottom. You can see the chart a little better. So yesterday morning when we gapped up, I was really sitting, you know, like getting ready to add, you know, I was just deciding are we going to put Qs or QLD, the double, on Swing Trader because we didn't have any exposure there. And I just thought, you know what?
4:26I looked through all the mega caps and I just said, you know, they just don't feel ready yet. And I wanted to give it a little bit more time. And then they faded yesterday, which I'm glad we didn't do anything with them. And then they faded some more today. But it doesn't, you know, Mazdaq doesn't look terrible. It just doesn't look, it's not leading. And you can tell that with the RS line there, it's pretty much mirroring what the S &P is doing. It's just kind of flat to slightly down. versus let's go to the MDY, which is another thing that we've been doing with swing traders going there. You can see that RS line poking up above those moving averages.
5:06So the RS line is that green line and the moving averages of the RS line are the gold and the blue. And that's where my eyes always focus. I spend more of my time looking at the RS lines than I do actually the price bars to see what is really leading. and it's really the small and the mid caps and a lot of the foreign stocks and the themes that are going on. And like you and I were discussing over Slack earlier today, you know, it's really in the defense area and then, you know, certain pockets of just little random themes here and there that they're hot and they're super hot. And then the other stuff are just kind of choppy.
5:53But yeah, ITA, which I have a position in and we've been trading on Swing Trader off and on over the different times. That's, I don't think we have it on right now. I think we just messed that up. I messed that up. Yeah, took that off. But it is what it is. But I'm still holding on to that and it's kind of a mixed bag. You've got some heat and you've got some slower pokey ones but even the slower pokey ones look good um like let's go to like uh what was i looking at earlier i think it was noc um yeah um noc i have a position in a small position and that's you know we almost decided to talk about that one it's just relatively in position and that yeah the rtx old rayton yeah rtx was kind of a um an early mover of the of the old legacy aerospace defense companies.
6:53And I mean, look, here's Lockheed Martin. Again, another of the legacy ones that has just been, yeah, looking very, very strong. And you know what? It's worth noting that even though this looks like it went straight up in the air, look from that upside reversal or go back to the daily. And when it had that outside day, upside reversal, yeah, just over to the left, like, yeah, right there. And it looked like it was off to the races. And then you got, I think that was some news out of DC on that bad day. And man, like, that's not fun. That does not make it easy. In hindsight, if you're just a patient, and I think you said it on IBD Live, you know, like you just, this is kind of the market where if you bury your head in the sand and like, pretend like the things coming down aren't really coming down.
7:45That's, you know, you're getting away with it. And I'm seeing a lot of people get away with that was some things. But, you know, it just depends on how your style. That would have been really hard to sit through that. And, you know, I'm seeing that around quite a bit. So I'm spreading out. And again, it seems like, you know, as soon as you get a day like that, then it really turns and rocks. rocks, you know, so again, just enough to shake you out before really kind of jumping up. And I just want to go back to one of the things that you said at the outset, because, you know, you started this with saying it's really difficult to buy things at the right position.
8:25And so I just want to clarify what that means. Usually what that means for us is managing our risk. You know, if you're going to buy something, we're always very cognizant of our exit strategy. And when something's sticking up straight up in the air, where do you manage your risk? That's why we skip a lot of these trades and we call them extended and, you know, and again, very good looking stocks, but we pass on a lot of these because of we don't have a way to manage our risk properly. So it's a key factor. And look, you know, in these cases where you do manage your risk, a lot of times you're getting shaken out at exactly the wrong time before the move really starts.
9:08But what's the alternative to not have any risk management? That's kind of unacceptable. It's very unacceptable in our book, you know, but some people do it and they, you know, you get away with it until you don't get away with it. And then it's not a pretty thing. So you have to be aware of your risk at all times. You cannot ever bury your head in the sand. Doesn't mean you have to trade super fast and super tight. You can trade looser, but you have to have those lines in the sand that are well-defined that, hey, it hits this level. I'm out of it. Now, what happens is, you know, and Bill would tell the insurance, you know, the fire insurance story that, you know, in a nutshell is like, hey, did you buy fire insurance on your house last year?
9:55Everyone would say yes. And then And they say, well, are you upset if your house didn't burn down and you wasted that money on the insurance? And people would tend to get it. At least that's how it sunk in my head that way with cutting your losses quickly. And that can be half a percent for some people. It could be three and a half percent for others. It could be seven or eight percent for other people. But you have to have a line in the sand that once it goes through it, no questions asked. You just exit it. Or you can do it gradually. You can have some at half a percent, some at three percent, some at four percent.
10:30You can spread out your orders. But psychologically, when you sell and you just finally get your last share sold and then the stock goes and rips up, man, it just hurts your heart so bad. It hurts mine. But that comes with the territory. So one way around that is to do them gradually. Like you can break up your orders into like, let's say, four different orders. You have 100 shares to trade, you know, do 25 at a time or whatever, however the math works out for what size you're working. But that can help with those decisions on the way out as well as on the way in. Very good. Well, before we get too far, I want to just kind of give a quick overview of how the markets finished today and also let folks know some of the stocks that we're going to cover, including Bloom Energy and BWXT.
11:25I do have a position in BWXT and GE Aerospace, speaking of the aerospace defense area. But the NASDAQ ended up basically closing flat after having a decent start to the day. And there was a lot of back and forth action on the NASDAQ composite. So, you know, but that's the way it finished. We also had the S &P 500 that we were looking at earlier. that finished, you know, basically flat as well. Both of them, you know, in the bottom part of their ranges, not in the bottom quartile, but definitely in the lower half. Dow Jones Industrial Average kind of in a similar boat, maybe down a little bit more, down two tenths of a percent.
12:05Whereas the Russell 2000, even though it did finish, and actually I'm going to do the IWM, even though this did finish in the lower part of its range, it still managed to eke out a gain of about a tenth of a percent. And certainly, again, this has been the leading area. Looking at MDY, that also had a mild loss. But, you know, given the move yesterday, not looking too bad at all. That was down about three-tenths of a percent. And RSP, we've been spending a lot of time talking about that. And the breadth, that was down a little bit more than the S &P 500, down just about a quarter percent. So let's maybe do a quick look at some of the sectors.
12:49You already kind of started us out. We usually like to do a sector review as part of our weekly wrap up here. And yeah, we usually go, you know, from the worst performing of the day to the best performing of the day. And IGV, you know, keeps on making the bottom of the list, undercutting this area right here at 98.70. Man, this just is getting punished over and over again. Can I say something about that section? Like if you go back to the IGV, you know, that bounce, the first day, and we've talked about it a few times. So the first day of the year, it had a big sell-off. But what is just so tricky about this market, then it tried to poke up above its 200-day.
13:34And I could see if you're a bottom fisher, like I don't trade that way. But I could see people buying there just to get it, you know, have that roll around on you. So no matter how you trade, if you like to buy things in the dirt, as I would refer that trade to, nothing wrong with that. But just have an exit strategy there as well, which you would, you know, probably the low of the day before or the low of the day of the entry is always some good, you know, good places to pull the ripcord. but you don't want to get in this mindset of, oh, it's down so much, you can't go lower. Things can go a lot lower and that space is just unloved and it'll be unloved until it's loved again.
14:18And you never know, that could be the beginning of a move down or it could be the second bottom of a double bottom. And that means we're near low. You don't guess, you just have, for our style, what we would wait for is at minimum to get back above the 50 and the 200 day probably wait for it to get through 110.84. That's a long way from here. So this is at least one area that you just really underweight or just completely stay away from. Yeah, no, absolutely. ITB, this is the home builders. So again, a strong move that started last week and followed up on it today. I mean, followed up this week, even though today wasn't a great day.
15:04XLC, of course, this has Google and Meta as two of the big components. This is falling back below its 50-day moving average line. XLB getting hit a little bit today, down almost a percent and below the 21-day moving average line. But just kind of consolidating after this big day last week. XLB, the materials, this has been an area of super strength, if you will. You know, it was down but closed well off its lows. and yeah, didn't look too bad to me overall. FNGS, of course, this one has been, as you mentioned, really underwater, you know, just living below the 50-day moving average line. This is the mega cap, a lot of mega cap companies, the FANG +, your Microsofts, NVIDIAs, Tesla, you know, and so on.
15:51We also have XRT, the retail that we've been talking about. This had kind of a breakout. I do have a position still, a small one in this one. This did have a breakout, you know, kind of crossed this downtrend, and it's just been kind of trickling up a little bit higher. XLU, this was down about a half a percent, coming back to the 50-day moving average line, got turned away there, but still in it. We also often take a look at Utes, which does have a little bit more of that exposure to the AI adjacent. This, of course, did get a pretty hard hit from one of its big components, Talon Energy, which was down 11 percent.
16:34GLD, the gold, that one, you know, down half a percent. But again, given the move that it's had recently, it did finish off its lows and not too bad at all. KBWB, this one we saw some really nice setups here. And then, you know, bank earnings were coming out. You know, this past weekend saw a lot of dives below the 50-day moving average line between Bank of America, WFC, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, not hit as hard, but back below the 50-day moving average line. In contrast, we saw things like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley that, you know, really just got support of their 50-day, 21-day lines and had some really nice reactions to earnings.
17:22So kind of a mixed bag there. That was kind of interesting, right? It was, yeah. They all tend to go together, some just faster than others in whatever direction. But seeing that divergence, I actually like that because that's, you know, it'll turn more into a stock pickers type of market, as they always say, if we if that continues, which it kind of It feels like that's what 2026 has in store for us with the mega cap selling off and some divergences like this. Doesn't mean it's going to be easy. This means it's going to be a lot of work for us. But it's a positive thing because it means it makes it a little more fun.
18:03OK, let's go with that. XLY, this is the consumer discretionary. Of course, Amazon and Tesla are two of the big components here, compromising 40 % of the weight for this one. And if you want to look at RSPD, we did, you know, look at XRT earlier. RSPD is the equal weighted. So kind of taking away the influence of Amazon and Tesla, or at least the large oversized influence there. You know, that one was down over a percent. So a little bit harder hit, you know, than the XLY. MDY, the mid caps, as you mentioned, this was down about 0.3 % today. XLP, the staples, this one has had a nice, nice move here lately.
18:46And again, you would normally think of this as when a lot of things are defensive. That hasn't been the case. We have had a lot of the heat really moving. So it's not like money's been rotating out and hiding and, you know, heading for the hills. We've got a lot of heat moving and yet XLP was moving as well. Certainly helping that are, you know, some components like Walmart that has been doing very well. You know, Costco really, you know, jammed up there. So that's been helping. So some of those retail areas, especially in the discount space. RSP, the equal weighted S &P 500, that was down about a quarter percent.
19:27QQE is down about a two tenths of a percent. We also have the solar ETF tan. That was down a little bit less than two tenths of a percent. Still kind of holding right around this breakout area that it had last week when we were talking about it. OIH, which is our field services on the oil side. This has been moving up recently. Nice kind of move above the 50-day moving average line and 21-day moving average line here. And it's been continuing higher there. I still do have a small position there. XBI, the biotechs, another area that's been a little bit kind of choppy lately. Overall, still in an uptrend, you know, and hanging out right by the 21-day moving average line.
20:10But it's been, yeah, it's been a little bit tough there. Let's see. And then moving on down, Jets. This has been another one where despite some kind of rough earnings from, you know, DAL, there is still a lot of a lot of stocks that are holding up fairly well. And in this space, you know, that we've been looking at. And then also you have in the aerospace area, you know, this Brazilian EMBJ QQQ, the triple Q's. That is the NASDAQ 100, again, down just slightly, about a tenth of a percent, as was SPY. Moving on through, XLK, the technology, again, very heavily weighted here, you know, on NVIDIA, Apple and Microsoft.
21:02This has been just kind of going flat lately, but it was up today, about a tenth of a percent, as was XLF. That was up a little bit more than a tenth of a percent. Again, a lot of this weighed down by the banks, but yeah, they're not all reacting poorly, especially those investment banks. XLE, which is very heavily weighted towards ExxonMobil and Chevron, this has been having kind of a new resurgence after a lot of choppy action here lately. GDX, the gold miners, that did come off lows and closed near the top of its range for a one-tenth of a percent gain. We also have XME. This is the metals and miners.
21:45Kind of a little all over the place, you know, because you've got coal in there. You've got copper. You've got steel. You've got aluminum. You've got gold. You've got silver. You've got a little bit of everything. But this has really been a very strong move. You know, shame on me. I've been mentioning this a lot, but haven't really participated in the move because I was like, oh, it's just all over the place. I'd rather, you know, focus in. And it didn't work out for me that this time. I should have just gone with XME. IBIT, this got a, you know, the cryptocurrency after getting a turn, you know, turn back at the 50 day moving average line.
22:22It really kind of jumped through very strongly. And it's pulling back a little bit, but still holding above the 50 day moving average line. I do have a position there in IBIT. XLI, which is the industrials. This was up about seven tenths of a percent. So a lot of strength there. And as bad as IGV has been, SMH, and I do have a position here in the semiconductors, this has been rocking pretty good. So a lot of the semiconductors looking very strong. And Mike, as you mentioned, the aerospace defense area, ITA, just kind of rocking an uptrend here. I do have a position there. The number one of the sector spiders today was XLRE, real estate ETF.
23:05This was up about one and a quarter. And another ETF that we like to look at that's been doing very well lately is uranium and nuclear. As this got back above its 50-day moving average line, it's really kind of had a nice move since then. Any kind of wrap-up on the sectors? Because, again, there has been a lot of jostling, a lot of leadership changes, a lot of things that have looked poised to go. And they do, but then they stop or they reverse. And again, a lot of times it's not like they're completely broken, but especially if you're doing tight stops, it's been very hard to hold some of these.
23:49Yeah, it has been. With my style of being tight with the stops, it just doesn't really work so much in this environment. But if you widen them up too much, then you could end up just taking some really big losses and then have them turn. So, you know, it just makes it hard. Frankly, it really does. So what you can do is just do a little bit, you know, you just bend a little bit in each direction. You know, as I was saying before, is breaking your stops up into chunks, having some tight and then some looser. NLR is something I am trading. We do have on Swing Trader. This space is super hot. It's kind of like Althea hot, but it is lots of the stocks in there aren't the stocks that you want to trade individually.
24:42So finding an ETF, I'm not saying this is the best ETF for it. It's one that we're going with. And, you know, if I can find some time to investigate this area a little bit more from an ETF standpoint, I'm sure I'll be able to find some better ones. But this is what I'm going with. And I like the liquidity of it. And that does come in handy, although we'll trade some really thin ETFs, but I prefer liquid ones. And this looks like it has a lot to go. It's just rounding out the right side of this base. So instead of using a really tight percent stop on here, using something logical on the chart, which would be the low from two days ago is kind of your final stop from a swing trade or the 139.85 marked high as an exit point there.
25:33And you could also use the 21-day. They're all kind of in the same general area. But, you know, this is, you know, an area that you want to have some exposure to unless you just want a very conservative portfolio. There's nothing wrong with that, but I want to have some exposure there. And so this is one way I'm playing it.
26:04Mm-hmm. Makes sense. Well, let's take a look at some of the stocks as well that were on our radar. And again, it was it's been a little tough going finding stocks because a lot of things are that are set up are kind of they haven't broken out yet. You almost wonder sometimes with a lot of things moving, why haven't these moved? And then the things that have moved have gone up so much that it's, again, hard to manage your risk when they're sticking up straight up in the air. So one of those, Bloom Energy, and this was certainly one of the market darlings of 2025. It was one of the big performers, had this very deep base, almost lost half its value from its peak in a 49 % deep base.
27:05And here we are on the cusp of that high, you know, just breaking about the 147.86 high and getting back, you know, close to 150. So we were talking a little bit today about how, and you've mentioned this a number of times, how when you studied bases, there's this kind of gravitation towards the cup with handle because the belief is that those work better and have a higher success rate and go up more. But you actually found that cups do just as well, but they're sometimes a little bit harder to handle and manage your risk on. So what's your take here on Bloom Energy? Yeah, I call them the Black Crowes, Otis Redding basses.
27:50They are hard to handle. And maybe you got that joke. I don't know. I did. I did. You did? I can sing it. Yeah. Okay. All right. Got it. Okay. And the dead did that too. So anyways, with this one, I have a position in it. And there's several ways that you could have gotten in to this one before this cup without handle. But to answer your question about the cup without handle, because Bill would always say, you know, cups without handles are more failure prone than cups with handles. And I always said that, too, until I did this giant study. And to summarize the giant study, you know, it's a long story because it took me over a decade to build the study, which I needed to build Pattern Rec, which is what you see in Market Surge is what I spent my nights and weekends building for over a decade.
28:37so I could, one, so you guys could have it as a product, two, so we could have it as a product so we could use because I use it every day. But three, and more importantly to me, is to do a big study to see what really worked. Because when you do studies the way we would always do them, there's so much bias in there, it's not even funny because you're picking the stocks first, you got your bias there or what you want to study. Then you're looking at the bases and you're drawing it manually the way it ended up working out or didn't end up working out. No matter how objective and how intellectually honest you can be, there's nothing better than having a set program that does it the same way on all stocks.
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29:18Even if the program isn't perfect, it's at least the same way. So then the data that you get from that really tells you a clean story. I'm big into clean data and results and everything. And so when I did that, one of the things I found was the cup without handle, which this is the way Pattern Rec is drawing it, had the exact same risk profile and success and failure rate as a cup with handle, which was mind blowing. and I double and triple checked it because it was so against what we thought and what we've been saying. But with that, the beauty of a cup with handle is it gives you really clear, easy places to know that you're wrong.
30:03Whereas a cup without handle, meaning you don't have a handle. So you're buying it as it goes into new high ground, which in this case would be above the 147.86. Through there, like you said, what do you do with your risk? Well, you know that your maximum risk is always seven to 8 % from your buy point, just from a risk management standpoint. There's nothing wrong with doing it that way, but it doesn't really, there's nothing on the chart to really use. Whereas with a cup with handle, there is ways that you can see it that's like, okay, this is now a broken chart. Like let's pull up Reddit, for example, and then we'll circle back to this one.
30:40Because this is one that we tried this week, I tried this week and it didn't work out for me. When it broke above the 246-15 standard pivot, that gives you an expectation that it should move higher and continue higher. We also know, and I verified this with my study, that Bill would say 40 to 60 percent of the bases would breakouts would pull back into the pivot area. And I verified that it was about 50 percent. So right in the middle of the 40 to 60. But it's how does it do it? And once that broke down back below that level, the 246.15 yesterday in a material way and breaking down below your 21-day, well, that's a broken chart.
31:26Now, it's trying to get support at the 50-day, but it's a broken chart. It is what it is. And so we had to back out of that yesterday. And I had to back out of it personally. So it gave you an expectation. Now, it doesn't mean that it can't go back up. And I would wait for it to get back above 246.15 to prove itself to get back into it. But now let's go back over to BE. And so with that, you have some landmarks. With this BE, well, that could come down to the 7%, not be wrong. It's really not until it undercuts the low of two days ago, that red day, where then it's like, okay, this isn't acting right.
32:04But that's a long way down on a percentage basis from where we are. It doesn't look like it on the chart, but it is. So this is, you're playing with fire with this one. But the real entry points, we're really using the ShakeOut Plus 3. It's an old Livermore technique. I have a Webby Rambles on, which is my podcast on my channel, Webby 5150, my YouTube channel. And it goes over how I use, how I've adjusted Bill's take on the Livermore ShakeOut Plus 3, because he got it from Jesse Livermore and he had his adjustments on there and I have mine. In a nutshell, it is taking that low, the 76 even, which is your first low in your base and saying, okay, when you're forming a base and it comes down and hits a low, if you fall below that and then come back up through it by more than three points, and that's how Bill would look at it, that's a buy point.
32:59I look at it as five to 10%. And if you watch the video, you'll understand why from that 76 is where you'd be entering it. So I was buying it as it was going through the 21 day on the right side over there and then adding to it along the way. And I've been, you know, various size positions on that right now. I'm on the heavy side, but I wish it would have been heavy the whole time, but it has been heavier and lighter and whatever. But trading it that way, using the Livermore ShakeOut Plus 3, modified. And then as it went through the double bottom, because could you draw the double bottom on there for folks?
33:40Because really the pattern wreck should have picked it up as a double bottom. It's not a perfect thing. So through the one 1990, that was your real buy point, your standard buy point of your double bottom. So you can buy it through there. Lots of bases will have multiple bases. And Bill would agree with that too. You know, you can, and Charles and I would always kind of debate. He'd see a double bottom, I'd see a cup or vice versa. Neither of us were right or wrong. It was just, it's an art, not a science. So through the 119.90, that's the real - And the important thing, I think, is that it gives you a place to buy, right?
34:17It gives you an area of resistance. That's what's important, not what the shape is, but where. Exactly. Thank you, Justin. Exactly. The reason why we use patterns is not because they're magical. It's just to manage risk. Like you were saying earlier, you've got to use something. Otherwise, you're just buying everything up in the air and just, I don't know, getting lucky or unlucky. It depends on your karma, I guess. So the 119.90 is your real most logical entry point. Now it's going through this cup without handle here, which is an add-on point. I would be reluctant to initiate a position here just because it's not that I have anything against the cup with handle, as I was talking about, but a deep cup with handle, 49 % deep, that brings on a whole different level of risk.
35:08Because if something goes down 49%, you got to just think how much it has to go back up just to get back to even. So in that, you're going to have a lot of... Well, and it went up 100 % here in just over a month. Yeah, so that's a big move in a short period of time. So those tend to get some shakeouts in there that can be violent. So if you're trading it, I would be very careful. Yeah, technically, you could be buying it here as it's in the pivot zone. But I wouldn't go heavy here. I would start light. What does it have going for it? It's in a hot space. The RS line blue dot. I mean, that's a beautiful, that RS line into new high grounds.
35:49So the blue dot is something with pattern rec that if the RS line is at new highs in the base or on the breakout day, today's the breakout day or the pivot day, and it's at new highs, it'll show up as a blue dot. It's really, really powerful. Anyone using market surge should really focus in on those blue dots. They don't all work. There's nothing that works all the time, but that's kind of your best merchandise or place to start. So let's go to the weekly, and then we'll go through the other ones quicker. So with this one, that's terrible. I just got to be intellectually honest. Even though this is my second biggest stock, I just got to look at the base and go, So if Bill were here, he would shoot me for trading this because it's so wide and loose.
36:41By definition, those bars are so all over the place. That is not equilibrium. A base that is 49 % deep tells you that no one knows what to pay for it. Because a couple months ago, they were paying$140 for it. Then they were paying less than$80 for it. Now they're paying$140 for it again. So nobody knows, including myself, including you, including all the people that own it or are shorting it. So that means a lot more risk. But that also happened on the bass down below. Go ahead and put the best fit on for a second so you can see that bass down there. And that was a really deep bass as well and a sloppy bass.
37:22And when that had its move, it had this really powerful move from there. So it's not that it can have a super powerful move. You actually expect it to. Like this would not, there's two ways that I see this working out that would be normal and natural, a complete failure where a month from now it's under 80 or two months from now it's under 80, or this thing is on its way to three, four, 500 or more. Because a setup like this kind of is that, you know, it's either one way or another. Now, without said, maybe it just goes sideways. I highly doubt it. It's just, you don't have volatile stocks like this, not just either have a very powerful move up or back down.
38:03So if you're trading it, put stops in there, be very, very careful with it. But it is what it is. And it's worth mentioning that this was an area, I mean, the energy area, especially alternative energy, you know, because, again, you mentioned NLR, the nuclear. This does fuel cells and you can you can stack multiple fuel cells to the point where you can power a grocery store or, you know, whatever. It's something that can provide a lot of power and actually in a very clean way. So, yeah, very interesting there. Let's go ahead and move on to BWXT. I do have a position in this. We put it on Swing Trader today.
38:47Another one that looks awfully like a cup without a handle. You did have this one day where it came down to 200. But, yeah, not much of a pullback before it started rocking right back up to that 218.50 area, finished just below that. How deep is this base? This one is 25 percent. Very different. And the base before, oh, I should mention I have a position in it as well, and 17 percent. Okay, so a couple of things on here. night and day from BE meaning it's the bases are much tighter which is significantly better but it's still on let me step back let's look at the weekly chart because it'll be a little bit more obvious there the difference between these two stocks so put it back to standard if you don't mind yeah and I'm going to blame you this time okay that's fine so this informs bases on top of bases right so you have this you have this base with a blue dot on there you have the prior base now pull up the be and see how much difference that one is look at that wild move up that just means it's more powerful but it's also riskier because if it blows up it's got a long way to go down now let's go back to the other one because you always want to do a compare and contrast with things.
40:16I like base on bases because it means that people are more comfortable with the price that it's at. And what's also nice about this is if you see in the most recent base and the one before it, you had tight areas. That's where it's three or more weeks where it's closing almost unchanged and it's a blue shaded area there that we have in market surge. and you see that in the prior base, the bigger base as well. That's a sign of accumulation and support. And so that's a positive thing as well. I really like the RS line move on here. And we'll see, go back to the daily for a sec. And with this one, the red day that we just saw a couple of days ago, that's where I would say, if you're position trading it, that would be your final line in the sand from a swing trade, you're going to have to be tighter just because of the percentage move.
41:12But this looks like it's in position and wants to break out. And I think it's still viable here as a cup without handle. And worth mentioning that, again, this does have kind of the energy side of things, in this case, nuclear energy, nuclear components, a lot of government contracts. So in that NLR, this is one of the one of the top holdings and in that NLR ETF that we were talking about earlier. And let's go ahead and move over to GE Aerospace. This does have earnings coming up fairly soon. And again, the aerospace area has really been so strong. But I guess, you know, the question is, when you have the the the space moving so much, do you look at something like GE and say, oh, well, is this the laggard?
42:05It's not, it's just getting started. So there's this push and pull, right? This is still in position to be bought, but is it the laggard because it is still in position to be bought? Yes, it is by definition. It's the laggard. I would rather try to find a way to get into one of the extended names in the group or increase a position in an extended name than to get this one, but we wanted to have a contrast in there because, you know, the BE was so wild and crazy and the other one was in between and then just something on the slower side. Now, there is risk, a lot of risk because the earnings right around the corner.
42:44But at least this has a really nice, you know, broke out of that flat base and then moved up. And I wouldn't really call this necessarily a shelf, but it's something to trade against where you can have a declining tops line over the last two weeks. And that would be a good entry from a swing trade using today's low or the low from two days ago or the 21 day as your exit strategy. And the only problem is with earnings around the corner, you'd have to get a decent enough cushion to hold through there. So this is, at least the laggards in the group, which this one is, are still looking nice. Like if this was in isolation, and I didn't see other ones in the group, I'd say this looks great.
43:32But the reality is there's a lot of heat in the defense aerospace area and a lot of ones that look a lot stronger. But, you know, so I would go with the ITA, but unfortunately it's just out of position. Yeah. And look, ITA, 20 % roughly is GE. You know, so it's just that there's a lot of other things that have been really kind of moving it a little bit more. RTX. And again, I'm just getting this from the iShares website. So, you know, I encourage people to just do very simple Google searches, you know, ITA holdings, and it'll give give you the weights. You can go onto the website for iShares. uh rtx is a 15 uh boeing which is also on the verge of uh breaking out uh or i guess just did uh that's an eight percent weight and then you get down into a lot of four percent weights uh for a little while with a lot of those legacy ones that we were talking about but also um you know l3 harris uh the the recent merger there hwm i did notice a few folks uh talking about that in the YouTube comments today.
44:46So yeah, a lot of those looking very strong as well. Okay, well, that wraps up our stock side. Webby, you've got some charts to show, so I'm going to stop my share and turn things over to you. Okie doke. Let's see. Tell me when you can see it. I can see it. Okay, so I'm not going to get into it here, but this is our Bob Weir. Rest in peace. Take a step back. And I'm not just saying that this time because Bob has left us. He passed away. But it's something I say every week is because I'll just tell it anyways. So people understand why and I'll only do it this week. So the Grateful Dead would back in the day, they would have a general admission audience.
45:34And so everyone didn't have chairs. So they would just push up to the stage to get a better view. And Bob would see that during the show and he would say, okay, we're now everyone, we're going to play our favorite game. Let's take a step back. And then he would wait to play until everyone took a step back and another step back. And when you hear that, it always made me think of stepping back and looking at weekly charts and monthly charts and doing a bigger picture of just stepping back from the noise that we see with the intraday charts and on the daily charts and really trying to get a bigger picture.
46:10And that's what we do every week. So we're going to start off with our, so that's why I always say the Bob Weir, take a step back. So this is SPY Weekly Candles. And we're taking a step back, looking at this, saying, okay, is there anything here that we didn't pick up on the daily? Sometimes there's no extra information. Sometimes you'll get a lot of information. This tells you, and I'll just blow this up a little bit more so you can see it. This candle here is a tiny little body, meaning that the distance from between where we opened on Monday and where we closed today is very small, and we closed higher than it.
46:50That's why it's blue. But our wicks are the little top and the bottom thing that you have there. And the top wick looks like it went a little bit higher than last week, but the low was about the same as last week. So marking time, it's kind of a mixed bag of a week because you always like to see blue there, meaning that you close stronger than you open, but you want to see a bigger body. So this gives us kind of a mixed message that our expectation is sideways action. Sometimes you get very clear expectations that the next week should go up or should go down. This one is kind of somewhere in between that it's just telling you you don't have an expectation.
47:36Sideways is our expectation based on this. And so we're going to look at a bunch of charts, put a picture together, kind of a mosaic. Now you look at the NASDAQ, very similar, but with a negative body. You can see that that was a pink, so it closed a little bit lower than it opened, But basically the same thing as the last one. And this one would give you an expectation of sideways to maybe down. Contrast that with the IWM, which I have a position in. And look at how different this is. The distance from where we open on Monday to where we close. Huge body there, blue body. And the same thing last week.
48:19this leaves you with an expectation of moving higher but at a smaller pace because they tend to trend like this you get a big bar this one you get a smaller one here in general you don't get a bigger one after that you tend to get a little bit smaller but we will we will see it's kind of the same thing that happened over here a big one a smaller one and then a smaller one there so that would be normal and natural but things don't always have to be that way next we're going to go over to our regression lines. And how many days do you say we have now? 38, I think. 38. Okay. And that is starting, I'm starting this off on November 21st.
48:57So we're going to wait until there's 50 days and we're going to lock it in. So this is my anchor point. Why starting on November 21st? Because that is our lowest point of this most recent pullback. If it was a major, major intermediate correction or a bear market, I would wait and start it off at the follow-through day. But since we weren't in that position, that's my style of doing this is using either your bottom day or your first day up. First top day. Yeah. And this happened to be your bottom day. So I kind of lean towards the bottom day there to get what the trend is. And then the white line in between it, the white line, that's your line of best fit or your regression line.
49:43How I interpret this is the market likes to stay around that line. So once you get a clear channel in there as defined by the regression, that you've got the standard deviations above it and below it. Those are your red and green lines that it wants to kind of hover around the white line. That is your home base, as I refer to it. And so when I look at this, you know, I see four negative body candles and that might tell you, oh, I'm getting very concerned because that doesn't feel right. But then you're using this way of looking at it going, oh, it's totally normal. We're just right in that band.
50:28And even if we came all the way down into here, that would be normal and natural. Not always fun, but normal and natural. and you can see that it's kind of hugging the 21-day, which is your green line on there. Let's take a look and see what the NASDAQ looks like. Same dates. And this is a bit weaker, but still not too far out of line from our home base. Now contrast that with the IWM. I want to make sure I change the dates on here. I didn't. Let me change that real quick. Sorry about that. So with this one, it is on the strong side, exactly what you would have thought of. And we're using this to just confirm what we saw before.
51:16Typically, once it gets up into this area, it wants to kind of either just ride this red line, which is a half a standard deviation above the white line, or pull back into the white line, but stay at the white line. So that's your expectation. doesn't mean it's going to happen, but that you've got to have kind of a base case expectation. And with this, because it's so powerful and it's up there, that staying up in here would be ideal in what we're looking for, not necessarily a real break of the one standard deviation above it. That can sometimes be a little problematic. All right, next we've got our 50 % retracement.
51:57And this again is an art. You can do it from an intraday chart to a monthly chart and everything in between. What I'm choosing to do on here, and you can slice this a bunch of different ways, I'm using the October high, the October 29th high, and the low from November 21st. Those are our top and bottom line, meaning the 50 % retracement is 670 and change. And we wanna see, are we trading in the Northern Hemisphere or the Southern? In this case, the Northern is where we want to be. That's a sign of strength. not only are we in the northern part we are above that we're like up in antarctica and so that's a good thing wait that's the one up above us right just you know everything no it is not okay as i said it i'm like oh yes well antarctic uh antarctic without bears arctic up there by um santa you know there you go north okay so uh anyways we've got the nasdaq on here and it's just living in this area, which is healthy.
52:58It's just lagging versus everything else, but it's still healthy in this same zone. And we'll switch over to the IWM quite a bit different. When you use the October 15th high in the November 20th low, these lines, we've been well above that for a long time. And then I recently put in this high here of the December 12th. And the low there looks like the first trading day of the year or the December 31st. And we're trading well above that level too. And you can, you know, we can change this and, you know, make this up here and all, and there's nothing wrong with that. And then our midpoint would be 256 and change.
53:48And so you can slice this a different way, many different ways, use it on individual stocks, use it on everything. And just, it's one of my favorite tools that are really simple to use. Okay, next we've got our lines in the sand that are kind of important. So let's blow this up and look at this. This is SPY and our most recent low here from the 14th, the 686-04. That would be your first line in the sand. Also underneath the 21 days. So you wouldn't want to go there, but could hit there. More important one would be the low from January 2nd, because if we came down there, we would then be down or flat for the year.
54:34We'd also be underneath the 21-day and underneath the 50-day. And if you get below that, then that's a different topic. So let's look at the NASDAQ. On here, again, it's just not as strong as the other ones, and we really want to see it hold, you know, this week's low, but really the low over here from the second or, you know, first trading day of the year. Let's take a look at the IWM and you can see this is in, you know, a completely different place. The most important level here is the 258.20, which is your low from the low from the 12th, but it's also kind of your high from mid-December. So when you have two points on there, two or more points, it becomes more meaningful.
55:25So that line would kind of be putting you in line with where the 21 day will be in a few days. So that becomes a very important level that you'd like to stay above. Now, if IWM doesn't work out this time, like it hasn't so many other times, your true ultimate line in the sand would be down here with your January 2nd low at 245 and change. And that's underneath your 50, underneath your 21 day. And we don't want any of that. Now we will go over to one of the newer things we've added in here. And if you're saying, what are all these charts for? This is noise. This is distracting me. It's fine. You don't have to use them.
56:08You can pick and choose which ones from here that you want to use. but I like using all of them and just have it paint a picture to me of, you know, what's healthy, what's not healthy and what to expect. So this is something that I've been using for a long time, many, many years, a decade or so, where I have a bunch of different moving averages on there. And then I just see from shorter term moving averages are the shorter ones stacked above the medium, intermediate term ones and are those above the long term ones. So how I like to do this is just use the Fibonacci numbers. You can just Google that to get the numbers, but it's 3, 5, 8, 13, and 21, 34, and so on.
56:55I would spend time just getting to know those numbers. They're very powerful to use in a lot of different ways. We don't have time to go over it right now, but the problem here is your short-term ones, your three is starting to come down through your five but most of them are still stacked nicely. The most important one on here is your blue one. That's your 21 day and your 34 is your tan one, which is something I don't talk about very often, but it is a very important moving average as well. So let's take a look at the composite. So pay attention to where those are. They're pretty much stacked nicely.
57:30Then we'll look at the composite. See, that's a little bit different where the shorter term ones are kind of converging down, The three is down with the five and the eight, but they're still above your 21 day. And now we'll look at something a lot stronger. This is what you want to see. It's kind of like a fan type of look where they're stretched out and they're in a perfect world. The short-term ones will start really going up quite a bit. But having them where they're all spaced out, this is the type of market that you look for. This is a trending market. So this tells us we want to stay in this space.
58:11Let's take a look at the RSP just for fun. So this is the equal weight. So your average S &P stock in here, and that's what that looks like. So it looks so much better than your market cap weighted SPY. So let's see. Our last one on here, and this is Ali's favorite chart, and Ali will be back February 17th, I think, right? That's right. Okay. We're looking forward to that. And then with this one, what we do is just focus on the 21-day and your low versus your 21-day. Are you above it or not? Have you been able to stay above it? We had a successful test a couple days ago here, and it could have gone the other way, but it didn't, which is great to see.
58:55But now our low is back above it. We want it to stay above as long as possible. NASDAQ, exactly what you think. It's just going above it, below it, below it. that's where you get all that chop from we'll take a look at the iwm completely different it looks like we're almost at 10 days right with your low above your 21 days so then you that's power trend type stuff so we will stop sharing here and switch over to um and some folks were asking about the the platform you're using that was trade station and uh now you're switching over to TradingView. And we will talk at the end about the market surge beta that is launching tomorrow.
59:40So we'll circle back to that because, yeah, I've been using TradeStation since the late 90s and super excited that a lot of the reasons why I use it, we're going to be integrating into the new market surge. So we'll talk about that at the very end. Don't let me forget about that. So here is our Webby RSI. This is the measuring the low versus your 21 day. And I do this in terms of ATRs. So over here, these numbers, if you can see them, that is one ATR right there. This is two ATRs and this is three ATRs. So you can see we're just down here, just like little baby thing on here, like 0.2, 0.3 ATRs where your low is above it.
1:00:28That's not enough to get excited about, but at least it's above it. Now let's take a look at the. Well, also, before you move too far, it's worth mentioning. I like what you said maybe last week or a week ago about there's still kind of chinks in the wall, right? You know, so as opposed to some of these really strong rallies where it's kind of this uninterrupted blue bars, you've got a lot of kind of blanks in there right now. Exactly. You want to see a wall, what I call a wall of blue, or some people call it a wall of sound, if you know what I'm talking about. So over here, this is coming out from, what is that, in 23.
1:01:12You can see this big wall of blue, and you see how it got all the way up to your three ATRs early on. That's a sign of power. That's what you want to see. and as a wall of blue telling you that your lowest state above your 21 day for a long period of time. When you get into this choppy stuff like we're in now, it's a little bit of a wall, then nothing, then a little bit of a wall, then nothing. And then what's worse is over here, this orange popped up, that burnt orange. That's meaning your high is now underneath your 21 day. And that's not what you want to see. Like that's what we saw during the whole tantrum over the tariffs over here where it bottomed out again at that three ATRs with your high underneath it.
1:02:02And that ended up being right around your bottom there, which is kind of typical. It's hard to buy there, but it's kind of typical. So now let's look at the – thanks for that, Justin. Yeah, this is not what you want to see. Like, this is not a wall. Like, who is that going to, walls keep people out or keep things in. That, like, is this going to, like, you can, like, step over that wall. Like, that's not what you want to see. Now, let's contrast that with IWM. And look at this. This is getting to where we want it to go. We want to see it even higher up to the three would be nice. And it's, you know, two, two and a quarter ATRs.
1:02:45And let's just look back in time. this has been so choppy all over the place. It got really back here. And that was in July of 24, where it really looked like it was going to go. And then it fell apart. So this is why we're not, we're very bullish on this. This is our biggest position on Swing Trader. I've got a position in it. We're actually doing the levered version on Swing Trader. But we also are aware of the history of how choppy this has been. And so we're cognizant of that. But, you know, the trend is your friend. And let's take a look at the RSP with this. And that is really nice. It got almost up to two ATRs this week, which is certainly nice for this instrument.
1:03:30So that is powerful. Now we're going to do our Bob Marley off high. And all this is, is looking at this a little bit differently. It's saying in terms of ATRs, which is over here, how far are you off of your high? Right now, we're one ATR off of our high. That's nice and healthy. Let's do the cues to change things up a little bit. This one is two and a quarter off of its high. And with this one, what you're seeing is each pullback is getting higher. Like this pullback down here, that was about five ATRs. Then this one was almost four ATRs. And then this one was like three and a quarter ATRs. This pullback was like 2.75, give or take, ATRs.
1:04:25So it's getting smaller. That becomes important. So if you were to draw a line on here, you don't want that to break down. So that meaning you don't want your next pullback to be lower than this last one, because that would be a kind of a change in direction. Look at over here when this was moving up in the summer of 25. As it was recovering, it was really over here when it started breaking down underneath that level right there where you started getting a change in character. And then that became choppier, even though it went higher. it become much choppier in there. And we'll look at the IWM as that is, you know, 0.69 away from that.
1:05:11And I just should add that this is using the lows, not the closing prices. So that's just in case you want to build this yourself. And then we will do the RSP. And so this one is only 0.79 off of there. And the green zone is four ATRs off your high. Yellow zone is four to eight ATRs off your high. and red is eight or more. We don't like that type of stuff. And so that was it. Don't let me forget to talk about the market surge beta, but did we have other things we needed to cover? Well, one of the things, and again, we don't have to belabor the point, but we do have a U.S.-based holiday on Monday.
1:05:55So there is, you know, sometimes a little bit different action to expect when everyone else's markets are open and ours are not. And then also, again, we had a triple witching today. So maybe just talk a little bit about that. Yeah, so we are in such a global market now versus when Bill first started trading or even when we first started trading that we're old now, Justin, do you know that? You are. I'm older than you, so you got that going for you. that everyone is still, who really wants to trade is still gonna be trading on Monday globally because you can trade our big stocks over in Europe.
1:06:38That becomes problematic, right? When everyone is closed for the same day around the world, maybe you just have some secondary markets open or something like that, then everyone's, you're not trading. But when some of the people are trading your stuff, but you're not, it's just more risk. So I dialed things back a little bit or we dialed things back a little bit with Swing Trader going into the three day weekend just because, you know, we wanted to have just a little bit of a little bit of a cushion there because you don't know how Tuesday is going to work out. Now, hopefully we just get a gap up.
1:07:12Now, what can happen is on Monday, if the foreign markets have a strong day and they've been, you know, European market and lots of areas around the world have been strong lately, that if that continues and then on Monday we're up around the world and then our stocks here, like the big ones, the Apples and NVIDIAs of the world will be trading over in Europe, that then come Tuesday, we have to play catch up to that. So then you could get some gaps on Tuesday, more so than you would get if it was the same, if it was a global holiday, more like a Christmas or a New Year's type of thing versus something like 4th of July or Martin Luther King or things that are specific to the US.
1:07:59So anyways, it just brings on some more risk. But when you're in an uptrend, it tends to go your way. when you're in a downtrend tends to go against you. So right now, that's why we didn't raise a ton of cash, but we raised a little bit just so we have something to work with on Tuesday. If instead of having a strong day on Monday globally, we have a weekday and then we have to play catch up with a gap down on Tuesday. That's what you want to just kind of always guard yourself against being put in a position where you're up to your eye. And I've done that before on a, on a non-US or a US-only holiday.
1:08:40And man, I got my head handed to me and it always stuck in my mind to always pay attention. Is this a global holiday or not? You just have more risk this way. And so it's one of those things. And I always, whenever we talk about holidays, I always say NYSE, please, please, please, I'd be happy to talk to you about having Veterans Day as a holiday that we observe, just like the bond market observes it. And I feel very strongly about that. And you'll always hear me talk about that. We deserve to give the veterans the credit that they deserve. Yeah, very good. And then just to kind of finish things up, because both Rachel and I have to do charts today because we are a little short-staffed.
1:09:29But market surge, some folks have probably gotten emails about a beta test. This is something that's been in the works for a while and time to start kicking the tires and see how things are working. So anything you want to share in particular about that? You've kind of alluded to some things, but... Yeah, so with market surge, we needed to completely revamp things from the ground up for us to be able to put the bells and whistles in that we want, like the WebE RSI and the regression and all the things that we go off and I'm using TradeStation or TradingView for. And we needed a complete overhaul.
1:10:12And so that's what we've done. So keep your expectations low, because although there's lots of new bells and whistles, when you get a major overhaul like this, you're going to have lots of bugs and things like that that end up happening. So I want to be honest with people. Expect a lot of bugs. With any software, new program. So just, I would keep both programs, the old one and the new one. And I'll just tell you, if you use the beta up on the top right-hand corner of it, if you want to go back to the old one, there's a little button where you click and just puts you back to the old one. Any of the changes that you make this weekend until we move over your screens and alerts and stuff like that, Just play around with the beta.
1:10:58Don't build new screens you think are going to be there or lists and stuff. Those are going to get wiped out when we merge things over in the coming weeks. So I just, you know, I want people to look at this as something fun, fun new toolbox to play with. Use candle. Candlesticks are finally in there. I've been asking since 1998 for us to incorporate candles with our products. So I'm super excited about that. And there's lots of like, it's now a platform that we did it with another company. And so they have a lot of their bells and whistles that are already in there that you'll now have access to.
1:11:38Have fun with it, but do be patient with it. And just because with any new software, it's going to take a while for us to get all the bugs worked out. So temper your enthusiasm, curb your enthusiasm, but be super excited. I would use the candles and use all the bells and whistles and have fun with it. Now, in a few months, then we're going to be rolling out new ratings and new other things. I'm totally revamping the Growth 250 and I'm doing all the ratings. I was lucky enough to do one of the ratings with you, which I'm super excited about, was the accumulation distribution. I think you and I haven't had that much fun since we did market school.
1:12:24So, right, it was like, you know, lots of fun. So looking forward to that. And, you know, so that'll be later. But right now it's the new beta platform. First things first. Try it out. Let us know what you guys think. But it's just going to get better. Awesome. Well, thank you very much for that. Hope you enjoy a long holiday weekend, Webby. And we will see everyone back on IBD Live on Tuesday. And of course, we will be having our Stock Market Today video as well on Tuesday after the close. Thank you so much for watching, everybody. And we will see you next week. Have a great weekend.
1:13:41Thank you. This is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell, or retain any specific investment or service.
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Justin Nielsen and Mike Webster analyze Friday's market action and discuss key stocks to watch on Stock Market Today.
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