In short
Weekly market wrap focused on “throwing out” a specific 1980 trading precedent, then adjusting using normal rules (especially the 21-day EMA and trend/rotation). Also covers sector/stock leadership, plus three specific names: Oscar Health (OSCR), Pulte Homes (PHM), and CoreWeave (CRWV).
Guest backgrounds
Mike Webster is IBD’s senior market strategist, speaking from Las Vegas. The host is also an IBD personality (mentions Charles Harris and Bill O’Neill’s methods).
Key claims
The 1980 precedent was “broken”/discarded after the market failed to behave as expected, so they reverted to their standard bull-market playbook: rely on charts, especially whether price is above the 21-day EMA, and watch for higher highs (trend intact). They argue correlations rise in stress, so diversification can be misleading.
Notable examples
Palantir was removed after “acting funny” on news. Oscar Health jumped ~12% on a loose base breakout; Pulte Homes is a housing/interest-rate/pent-up-demand play despite a weaker chart; CoreWeave is a high-ATR IPO setup (cup-with-handle) with strict risk sizing.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Overview and Key Stocks
0:00 to 0:28
Discussion on market trends and key stocks like Pulte Homes and Oscar Health.
“General Fusion is working to bring the zero carbon abundant energy source to Earth.”
Market Overview and Key Stocks
0:30 to 0:41
Discussion on market trends and key stocks like Pulte Homes and Oscar Health.
“Hello and welcome to another episode of the Stock Market Today video.”
Market Overview and Key Stocks
1:08 to 2:00
Discussion on market trends and key stocks like Pulte Homes and Oscar Health.
“You know, so I'm just trying to stress you out even more.”
Understanding the 1980 Precedent
2:00 to 4:06
Explaining the significance of the 1980 precedent and its impact on trading.
“But Mike, let's let's get right into it in terms of the market.”
Adjusting Strategy Post-Precedent
4:06 to 5:24
How to adjust trading strategies after discarding the precedent.
“But when you throw it out, what you do is you just go back to your normal rules, everything else you learned as if that never existed.”
Market Behavior and Trends
5:24 to 8:00
Discussion on market behavior, trends, and the significance of key indexes.
“Anything in the nuke space, that's been volatile, but moving higher.”
Correlations in Market Dynamics
8:00 to 10:35
Exploring the correlation of assets during market crises and how it affects strategies.
“You just, you have your watch list ready and you just one by one, you start adding exposure.”
Impact of Government Shutdown on Markets
10:35 to 14:00
Discussing the effects of government shutdowns on market data and trading.
“So, you know, that was that was right here.”
Market Dynamics and Government Shutdown
14:00 to 15:00
Understanding the impact of government shutdowns on market data and behavior.
“Now, we're a little bit in the dark the longer this happens.”
Lessons from Historical Precedents
15:00 to 17:00
Exploring the significance of the 1980 market precedent for current trading.
“And so I think how you approach it is that the Fed is kind of on autopilot of quarter rate cuts until we see something to tell us, you know, different, differently than that.”
Show all 25 chapters
Analyzing the 1980 Market Trends
17:00 to 21:30
A detailed examination of market movements in 1980 and their relevance today.
“And most importantly, how it did it were trending above your 21-day, the green line, for such a long period of time.”
Current Market Comparisons
21:30 to 22:40
Comparing current market conditions to historical data and understanding changes.
“And if that happens, that's totally different because we've broken the precedent.”
Sector Performance and Stock Analysis
22:40 to 28:06
Reviewing the performance of various sectors and significant stocks in the market.
“The 21-day moving average line, of course, exponential.”
Market Overview and Sector Insights
28:06 to 31:18
A detailed analysis of various stock sectors and market trends, including key observations on performance and technical indicators.
“It was a spam call, too, not even important.”
Healthcare and Homebuilder Stocks Discussion
31:19 to 37:59
Insights into specific stocks in the healthcare and housing sectors, discussing breakout potential and trading strategies.
“This is kind of dominated by the ExxonMobil and Chevron.”
Oscar Health and Housing Market Strategies
38:05 to 42:00
Discussion focuses on Oscar Health's breakout potential and the dynamics of the housing market, including strategies for investing.
“Speaking of health care, let's take a look at in the health insurance space, Oscar Health OSCR.”
Market Analysis and Charts Overview
42:00 to 44:25
An analysis of market trends and specific stock charts to gauge potential trades.
“So I think there's that pent-up demand there.”
CoreWeave and New Market Entries
44:25 to 46:58
Discussion on CoreWeave's market position and its potential for trading.
“It's not the type of field that you like, but again, sometimes you're playing just the chart.”
ATR and Trading Cautions
46:58 to 49:05
Exploration of Average True Range (ATR) and advice on trading volatile stocks.
“But I just did want to bring it up for a few reasons.”
Technical Indicators and Market Signals
49:05 to 51:43
Analysis of technical indicators for market signals and stock performance.
“Take a step back, looking at the weekly candles to see if, is there anything that it's telling us that's a warning sign?”
Moving Averages and Current Trends
51:43 to 56:00
Discussion on moving averages and their relevance to current market trends.
“You want it up into this area, which would be, you know, 23 ,500 or so.”
Market Analysis and Charting Overview
56:00 to 59:19
Learn about the current market trends and key indicators for major indexes.
“That blue line is your 21-day exponential.”
Swing Trading Strategies for Next Week
59:20 to 1:02:55
Discover strategies for swing trading and how to prepare for the upcoming week.
“Because, again, we didn't have the greatest close today.”
Understanding IPOs and Recent Trends
1:02:56 to 1:05:26
Gain insights into trading IPOs and the risks involved based on historical data.
“As you mentioned, some of the finance things were still looking good.”
Understanding IPOs and Recent Trends
1:06:59 to 1:07:41
Gain insights into trading IPOs and the risks involved based on historical data.
“operational demonstration machine, General Fusion is advancing toward commercialization, targeting a first-of-a-kind fusion plant around 2035.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Fusion powers the sun and stars. General Fusion is working to bring the zero carbon abundant energy source to Earth. As global electricity demand surges, Fusion has the potential to deliver clean, scalable power for a growing world. Proudly NASDAQ listed, General Fusion is the first publicly traded pure play fusion energy company in the world. With its magnetized target fusion technology and operational demonstration machine, General Fusion is advancing toward commercialization, targeting a first of a kind fusion plant around 2035. Learn more at GeneralFusion.com.
0:40Hello and welcome to another episode of the Stock Market Today video. This is a Friday. It's October 3rd, 2025. And that means, as usual, we're going to do a wrap up of the week's action. And to help us do that, as he typically does, it's Mike Webster, our senior market strategist here at IBD. And he is coming to us from live from Vegas, where I'm going to be joining him in just a few hours after, you know, we get the paper out and, you know, run through the airport and all that. You know, so I'm just trying to stress you out even more. I cannot believe that you're not at the airport right now.
1:14Anyone who knows traveling, Mike, as I'm known around with my family, I would have been at the airport already. And you still have to do this show. Plus, get the newspaper out. And then you're going, yeah, well, it's all part of the fun. I'll see you tonight, man. Okay. Cross your fingers. We roll differently. Yes. Well, we're going to get into a little bit of what is going on with the 1980 precedent, why that is dead, and what you do after you kind of throw a precedent out, how you adjust. We'll also talk about a few stocks, including one of the housing stocks, Pulte Homes. I do have a position in that myself.
1:49That's why. We'll also go see some moves in insurance. So we'll talk about Oscar Health. That's OSCR. And then we'll finish with, gosh, an IPO market that is coming back. And we'll look at one core weave, CRWV. But Mike, let's let's get right into it in terms of the market. I'm going to go ahead and share my share my screen. And I do own Oscar as well, just for compliance. You gotcha. OK, so let's take a look at the market indexes real quick. It looks like the S &P 500 basically closed flat. The composite was down a little bit after being up earlier in the day. It was down about three tenths of a percent.
2:31NASDAQ 100 down four tenths of a percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Mike's favorite index, that was up a half a percent. That was sarcasm, by the way. And the Russell 2000 was leading the day for pretty much the entire day with almost three quarters of a percent gain. So let's start with the NASDAQ. And we, you know, came up to highs. That's kind of what was happening all this week. The Nasdaq composite making highs and came off a little bit, but nothing too dramatic, I guess. What's your take, Webby? Wow, I'm just so thrilled to throw out that 1980 precedent that we've been using. And we'll circle back to that in a little bit in exactly when we threw it out and why we threw it out.
3:16But in a nutshell, when you throw when you're using a precedent, you lean heavily on it, because that is your roadmap and you don't always have a precedent. Bill would use a precedent for individual stocks. I use it for individual stocks as well as the index. Sometimes you can go years without even having one precedent to latch on to. So when you do get one, you really want to, if you know how to use it, you really want to use it to a full extent because that is like next level part of your trading. You start off with just, you know, learning the basics of where to buy, where to, you know, sell defensively.
3:52Then eventually you start learning, you know, different aspects of portfolio management skills, risk management. And then eventually you get to precedent analysis, probably the hardest, trickiest part. But when you throw it out, what you do is you just go back to your normal rules, everything else you learned as if that never existed. And that's what we're doing, leaning heavily on all the charts that we go through each week, doing the mosaic of looking at all the individual stocks, how they are acting. And, of course, the 21-day, which is my core thing that I use, and are you above it or not?
4:31And that's the green line on the chart, and you're above it, and you've been trending above it in the power trend, something that you and I came up with, with Charles Harris, who's going to be at the event this weekend. You know, you use that as well. And so we've got the powertrain across the board on the IWM, which I have a position in, and SPY and NASDAQ. So you just go back to your instruments. This is a bull market. It is behaving like a bull market. Bull markets don't go straight up. So we've been seeing over the last couple weeks some groups and some key stocks getting hit. But that's okay as long as you have a rotation into other aspects or other areas.
5:13And that's what we're seeing. We started seeing it with the insurance companies, as well as a lot of the higher octane areas, energy related, utility related. Those are powering higher. Anything in the nuke space, that's been volatile, but moving higher. I have a position in NLR that you have up there. I do have a position in NLR as well. And we've got it on Swing Trader. And so those things are behaving as you would expect. Doesn't mean straight up, but as you would expect, lots of volatility and just a normal bull market playbook. It doesn't mean you rest and stay, you know, up to your eyeballs in stock 100 % of the time.
5:57You still adjust based on what your instruments are telling you, but you no longer have that roadmap that you had with the president, which is a good thing because that roadmap was a highway to, you know, Back in Black came out in 1980, which was what we were using. And prior to that, you had another album from ACDC with Bon Scott, and that was Highway to a Different Place. And that's where we were going. It's a family show. That's all I'll say. Okay. Yeah. Anyone that is a music fan can fill in the blanks for you. So let's talk about this a little bit because last week it was tricky, right? We have this beautiful upside reversal.
6:39Didn't even come down to that green line, the 21-day exponential moving average line, showing a lot of resilience, kind of like your base case scenario where you had a two and a half day pullback, day one down, day two down, day three, shake out and then close off the bottom. Even though it was down, it was well off the lows. Normally a place where you step on the gas. But again, we had that overhang of the 1980 kind of tempering some of the enthusiasm. So once that was thrown out and I'm just going to point out, you know, right here is kind of that was the day that, OK, now it's doing something different.
7:17You know, since you didn't have maybe the opportunity to step on the gas quite like you normally would have. How do you how do you adjust? So what we did and certainly what how we expressed the view that we were throwing the president, excuse me, throwing the precedent out was through our swing trader product. And we just started gradually adding stocks on there, not super aggressive, you know, at first and just, you know, just not going from zero to a hundred in a blink of an eye, but we went pretty, we ramped up pretty quickly. We backed away some today because there was some weird interday action that we just going into a weekend.
7:56We wanted to just have some powder drive for next week and just kind of ease things off, not slam on the brakes. So, you know, that's what you do. You just, you have your watch list ready and you just one by one, you start adding exposure. If you're getting feedback that that exposure that you've added is making sense, it doesn't mean it has to rip up, but it's not failing right away and, you know, flat up a little bit, then you just keep on increasing. If that's your style, you can go a lot slower. You can go faster, too. You want to be in line with your own personality. Now, what's really important about this week is the trend continued, meaning we had a higher high.
8:41That was critical because what you don't want to do is start having lower highs because that's when a trend breaks. So we had that high, came down, got near the 21-day, and then came up. And as you said, it was a textbook pullback into the 21-day. We would have gunned it really heavy there if it wasn't for the 1980 thing. But then it was really important whether we were going to take out those highs or not. And we took out the highs on SPY and Qs before we did on the NASDAQ. So that was really kind of the Q that we were getting. Because once one index goes into new highs or new lows, the others tend to follow.
9:25Not all the time, but I was to throw out the 1980 precedent. I was really leaning more on what SPY and the Qs were doing more so than the actual instrument, which was the NASDAQ, just to get a little bit of a head start on reversing what we had been very, very conservative and very light in that last couple of weeks, just because I just think there was way too much risk on the table. And you always do a post-analysis of your trades. And frankly, I would have treated this, the 1980 precedent, the exact same way, given the outcome. It was as picture perfect as one gets, really, for a precedent. So I think it was great.
10:13And now it's gone, so it's even better. Right, exactly. So just to kind of reiterate what you were talking about, we did say even before the NASDAQ got to these highs that we had actually kind of thrown the precedent out the day before. And that was that was right here before the NASDAQ composite got to highs. But as you mentioned, the Q's got to highs on that day. So, you know, that was that was right here. SPY or the S &P 500 that also got to got to the highs, you know, a little bit before the NASDAQ, one day before the NASDAQ did. So, again, as you said, as one goes, they typically all go. Now, one that is a little bit different, of course, is IWM.
10:59And I do have positions, by the way. And again, a lot of the indexes in various ways, including IWM. This one has been different just because, I mean, this was not participating in the same way while most stocks were moving. This was still kind of in this base as it was dealing with the, you know, the overhang of higher rates. And once the market started anticipating more of the rate cutting cycle beginning or, you know, continuing, I guess I should say, since it was a year ago that it started, the IWM, the Russell 2000 small cap indexes seem to do a little bit better lately. And again, this was off its highs.
11:46You know, everything pretty much closed in the lower part of its range today. But this was, you know, by and far the stronger of the indexes with a three quarter percent gain. What's what's your take here? Because one of the things, you know, we were looking at a precedent on the NASDAQ. How would that have affected potentially a move or a rotation to other areas like the small caps. Well, I do have a position here and we do have it on swing trader. And I'll just say, we don't know how that would have played out because I would have suspected if we would have had the sell off to the extent that 1980 did where we broke through the 50 and all, that it would have just gone over to the small caps.
12:30Because in this day and age, everything is so interconnected. Back in the 80s and before, you didn't have as many things that were tied. You didn't have the ETFs the way we have now. You didn't have the amount of mutual funds out there. You didn't have the global trading the way we have now. So things are very highly correlated. And we learned that in 07-09, you know, where anyone who is looking for a non-correlated asset, well, there really weren't any, you know, that you could find. It's called the correlation of crisis. You know, when there's a crisis, either, you know, either to the upside, like what we saw in the late 90s or to the downside, like in 07 or 08, the correlations really get very, very high among typically non-correlated assets.
13:19Everything goes to one, right? You know, a one correlation, which is like tied in. And That's why if you spread out, like the way I like to spread out at times, you're giving yourself a false sense of security because you're really, if it really gets bad, everything is going to go down. You might have some one-off things where there's news in the group, but if the S &P starts breaking key levels or the 50-day or the 200-day, things like that where everyone pays attention, there's so much selling that goes on in the market that it just pretty much goes to everything. so I think the IWM would have gotten hit as well which is why we weren't just pushing all our chips into non-Qs or non-SPY stuff because if we would have thought that they could have gotten away with it we would have just moved over there and what's interesting is with the IWM it seems like it just wants to chug along rather than just rip and that's fine, that's healthy so it seems like it's more sustainable just a shift And being able to have the market be fine with the government shutting down, which how it impacts us is we don't get as much data, which I think is a good thing because every time you've got data coming out, you've got all the algos that are keying off of it.
14:44Now, we're a little bit in the dark the longer this happens. So then when the government starts back up, which it always will, then we're going to get this backlog of numbers. And we're not sure how that's going to impact things. So that'll be tricky. It could just be a really good thing. And so I think how you approach it is that the Fed is kind of on autopilot of quarter rate cuts until we see something to tell us, you know, different, differently than that. Yeah, makes sense. And again, as you said, this would have been typically when we would have gotten, you know, some some new data from the Labor Department.
15:28And, you know, some people were, you know, kind of wringing their hands a little bit, thinking, you know, we've been seeing some cracks in the labor market. And so this was important to kind of determine whether or not a trend was presenting itself. So, you know, as you mentioned, a lot of people are like, well, gosh, you know, how can we how can we do anything? and we're flying blind. But then, as you said, you know, maybe that's good because the algos could have taken that in one direction or the other. When, you know, at the end of the day, sometimes looking at the market environment and the day-to-day market action is a better gauge of things.
16:05Do you want to go to the 19? Yeah, let's go there. There are some non-government, you know, reports that'll still come out, like the ADP and stuff, where people can get a sense for what's going on. But it's kind of, in a way, a nice break. But yeah, let's go to the 1980 for someone who hasn't been tuning in. To me, it just feels like a broken record. I've been talking about it and thinking about it so much. But this will be the last time. This is a final encore of 1980. So if you've never seen it before, the reason why we're using this and why it's such a beautiful precedent, and you should go back and study this, is the move up from the bottom was very similar to the move up that we had, you know, coming up through the 200 and through the 50-day.
17:00And most importantly, how it did it were trending above your 21-day, the green line, for such a long period of time. I think that trended above it for 109 days or so. And then ours was in the 60s, mid 60s, I think. But this was the extreme of our data set that the two of us looked at as far as your time above a 21 day. The break of the 21 day. So when it hit, I'm on a laptop, so it's hard to see 180. 185, 68. OK, when it hit that level, did the same thing that we did in our market, kind of did it the same way. Then you went up into new highs and hit. And this was kind of like the August 1st. Yeah.
17:41Right. Yeah, exactly. Then we came up and hit new highs. So it was telling you it was tracing out the same thing. And lots of people would ask, like, why are you using this precedent? The backdrop of so many things were different back then. But what you're doing is you're studying mass psychology. So the mass psychology of being underneath the 200-day, coming back up, trending so nicely above your 21-day, it's just studying mass psychology, and that's what index prices on an index level are. Then it went up through the up to 200, ran into trouble, came into the 50-day, very similar to what we did.
18:23This one was a little bit more extreme than where we got, bounced up a little bit, came back in. And each one of these wiggles and wobbles, I was going to draw it on here, but I just didn't have time. I like putting A, B, C, D, E, and so on on the target one or the precedent that you're using, and then do it on the target or the current market so you can see those levels. Where it was deviated wasn't even on this day. This day that we have here, December 4th, was just like Monday, our current Monday. It was like almost identical. I said on IBD Live where I thought NASA could get up to. And it was within like just a tiny, tiny little bit of it on Monday.
19:10So it was tracing it, which wasn't good because then that meant Tuesday we were going to have the gap down. Let's go to the gap down, the fifth. That didn't happen, but that was okay because it wasn't changing materially. What it needed to do was take out that Monday high for that to happen. And so in our precedent, it broke through the 50. That's what I was concerned with. Because if this market back then, which was much tighter than ours, fell three and a half percent in a day, which is what it did there. Imagine what that would have done for it. It would have been like a mini crash in our market.
19:46That's why I was so wrapped up and concerned about it. That would have been really, really bad. Imagine you're on full margin and something like that happens. You're talking, you know, a seven, eight percent down on on an index level quite possibly. and then your stock's down 15, 20 % in a day. That's what I was worried about. That didn't happen. So let's go to the end of the month, to December 31st, just see kind of how it played out. So it broke down through the 50-day. It didn't get that much worse and kind of meandered up in kind of a weak fashion. This is a weak rebound rally. Let's go out to June of 81.
20:28Okay.
20:32So it just doodled around for a while and then ultimately started trending above its 21 day. And the reason why we wanted to show it to this is, you know, good markets don't say good forever. Bad markets don't say bad forever. And you want to trust your instruments. And the instrument that I like to use is that 21 day, the green line. Are you trending above it or not? You just kind of wait for that to happen. And it's always better if that 21 day is also turning above your 50 days. So when that happened as well, that's where you get your power trends. And so anyways, I would suggest that people go back and study this if you haven't studied it already, because it's a great example of a precedent to use because it allowed us to put on the gas, put on the brakes at different times, and then also where to get rid of it.
21:23So if you've been living with a precedent, the most important thing is to not get married to it. Now, it doesn't mean we can't fall apart next week. And if that happens, that's totally different because we've broken the precedent. Let's go to our current market. So on Wednesday, let's pull up SPY for a second and let's zoom in on it so we can see a little better. These old eyes don't see very well on a laptop. So I think you, okay. So on there, when you took out that high on Wednesday, that's where it was materially different than what we saw on the NASDAQ back in 80. Because there you never got, you got close to your highs, about an 80 % retracement of the last wiggle and wobble.
22:08But it never went up to past 100, meaning into fresh new highs. So that's when you have to throw it out. You don't argue with it. Bill would never argue with things. He would fall in love with the stock all the time. People don't realize that he would always fall in love with the stock. You and I know that. But then as soon as it started acting not normal and not natural, out it went, and he just forgot about it completely. So I think that's enough about the 1980, and I won't talk about it unless we're talking about some good music. Right, exactly. There you go. And, you know, just as a reminder, some folks were asking about, you know, the important moving averages that you look at.
22:44The 21-day moving average line, of course, exponential. This green line right here is one of the more important ones. You know, a lot of people use the 50, but to keep things a little bit tighter and to really kind of say, hey, how strong is the trend? That 21-day moving average line is something that you've found to be very useful, especially for market indexes, but for individual stocks as well. Yeah, I use it for everything. Originally, I just used it for indexes, frankly, because I was scared of Bill. because he never talked about it with stocks. And then once I started using it for stocks, I just realized it's superior to the 10-day.
23:2210-day is nowhere as good as the 21-day, and it's a totally different animal than the 50-day. So it's your go-to in almost all cases. Let's go ahead and take a look at some of the sectors. And again, it was kind of a weird day. Things were looking really strong to start the day. It was almost like, you know, it looked like it was going to be another day of highs, A lot of the heat working very well. And then we started seeing some cracks. Of course, Palantir was one of the early cracks today. As that came in, there was some news about one of their platforms. They've refuted it. We'll see how that plays out.
24:00But let's go through the sectors to kind of see how things end up. We had to get rid of that on Swing Trader, and I got rid of it in my personal account as well. and it was one of the stocks that i thought was a true leader and it still might be you never know how stocks react to news but you'd rather be the there's a line in bill's book how to make money bill o 'neill the founder of ibd um in his book my favorite line there's the quick and the dead when it started acting funny this morning as much as i like it we just removed it from swing trader and you just shoot first ask questions later we could have always bought it back but then it got a lot worse after that.
24:41I hope it's an overblown story and we just end up buying it back over the next few weeks. Yeah, better safe than sorry. But ARKK, speaking of those kind of more, I guess, innovative and speculative companies, ARKK, this did fall about 1%. I mean, it doesn't look that bad, though, given where it's been and that bounce that it had from its 21-day moving average line, This still looks OK. I do have a position in that. The software IGV that's holding up well enough, still trending above its 21 day moving average line. And by the way, I have started from the worst to the best. That's the way we typically start with our sectors just to kind of get a sense of what was getting hit first.
25:28XLY, of course, Tesla and Amazon both are larger positions here. This came down to its 21-day moving average line. Speaking of some of those big cap companies, the mega cap trillion dollar club, FNGS was down about half a percent, but still holding at its 50-day moving average line. XLK, the big tech sector spider, that was down a half a percent. But again, hard to complain too much when this isn't even at its 10-day moving average line. The chips, SMH, VanEck, Semiconductor, ETF, down a little bit. But I mean, you know, didn't even come and fill in that entire gap from yesterday. So this is still sticking straight up in the air, really.
26:11Not much damage there today. And then, of course, you have the Qs, which, you know, were off a little bit. I have four tenths of a percent. NLR that you mentioned in the uranium and nuclear space, basically, you know, closing mid-range. QQEW. This is the equal weighted, first trust equal weighted NASDAQ 100. This was basically flat. I mean, it had an earlier gain that it lost, but didn't really give up much ground. And this was also right there making highs along with the other indexes. So kind of speaks well for breadth. Just stop there for a second. That was another reason why we threw out the precedent, because with this, with the equal weight hitting fresh highs there, it was just telling you it was breaking.
27:01And so there were a lot of, sorry to interrupt you, go ahead. No, absolutely. We do have that on Swing Trainer as well. This is where adding the color to all of this, you know, is what you do best, right? So XLC, which has Alphabet and Meta as its two largest positions, That's coming down to the 21-day moving average line, kind of hanging out right there. GDX. Let's just go to meta for a second, because that's one of the ones that is bothering me a little bit on just the way it's acting. So you could say at this point it's kind of like a double bottom possible. So you would, if it's a double bottom, then you should have a rapid advance up, what I call line four.
27:47So from 796.25, the left side high down to the 721, that's line one. And then up to the midpoint, that's line two. We're in line three right now. So line four, if you study double bottoms, you're supposed to mute your phone ahead of time. I know. You rookie. It was a spam call, too, not even important. There you go. I'm going to turn off mine now. that you want line four to be rapid. So I'm going to be on the lookout to see if this comes back and if it does it meandering up, which is weak, or if it shoots up and does like a shakeout plus three type of thing. And we'll talk about that on IBD Live maybe on Monday.
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28:34Sounds good. So XLC, struggling a little bit. And just, you know, since you brought up meta, worth looking at Google, which is holding up much better, You know, I'm getting support right there at the 21 day moving average line. We also have GDX. The gold miners took quite the hit yesterday, but man, they just can't be kept down. They closed basically flat yesterday and pretty flat. I thought they were going to pause. We were talking about that yesterday. I'm like, oh, that would be normal and natural for them to come in. I thought they'd come into the 21 day. Boy, I was dead wrong. Yeah, yeah.
29:10Yeah. Spy, as we mentioned, S &P 500 was basically flat today. So now we're getting into the areas that were up. One of those included aerospace defense. That's been holding up pretty well. A lot of, again, on the more speculative side, some of those have been really jumping up quite a bit. Rocket Lab, your drone makers. So something like a UFO. I do have some Rocket Lab, by the way. UFO, the space ETF. We've had Andrew Chaikin on the podcast before. That's been doing very, very well lately. But ITA itself, you know, it also has like the RTX and your legacy kind of defense plays in there as well.
29:50So flat action there. XLP, you know, this is still struggling, which you kind of want it to, right? Staples are generally where people hide, where institutions hide when they need to. So no hiding here. People just are not really interested in parking their money in staples because they just don't move typically. XLI, the industrials, that's coming up to a flat base potential breakout here. That's been trending above its 50 day moving average line lately. So looking up, looking better. You know, these are looking better, but the relative strength is still, you know, suffering on a lot of these, including XLB, the materials.
30:28That's back below its 50 day moving average line. And we'll see if it can get back above there or if this is an area of resistance and it's going to get turned away. So we'll see about that next week. RSP, the equal weighted Invesco S &P 500, that was up today, which, again, fairly surprising with so many things down. You know, Russell 2000, of course, was up, but this was up as well to the tune of 0.35 percent. Off its highs, but still up for the day. Pretty impressive. XLRE, the real estate, if you're into your REITs and everything like that. And look, homebuilders are in here too. We're going to talk about some homebuilders a little bit later in the show.
31:11But that had a decent day, again, off its highs considerably. Some of those homebuilders look much better. And we'll talk about those. XLE Energy. This is kind of dominated by the ExxonMobil and Chevron. Been kind of whippy lately, but it's trending above its 50-day moving average line. We'll see if that can hold and if it can continue with that 50-day moving average line above its 200-day moving average line. That's the red line is the 50-day and the black line is the 200-day moving average line here. XLF, there were a few financials that were looking not too bad. A bounce off the 50-day moving average line here and back above the 21-day moving average line.
31:51Gold, we talked about the gold miners. Gold was actually doing even better with a 0.8 % gain, you know, right back to a closing high, never mind that pause that we were thinking might be happening. XBI, we've been talking about how, man, what a shift to kind of the healthcare area and biotech has certainly been one of the areas that has benefited greatly from that. So XBI and XLV, the healthcare sector spider ETF, really doing well in the last week or so. Let's just go back to the XBI for a second because I totally messed that one up. And it's just a reminder of how powerful that 21 day is, that green line of if you get a toehold in something that's working, sometimes you can massage your position size, but at least hold something while it's still above the 21 day.
32:44And I just want to give a shout out to the guys on Leaderboard, on Ken and Mike Larkin, and of course, Hat Man, Dave, that I believe they've had this on their product for a long time. Requires some patience. Yeah, just a great job with it. So kudos to them. And you live and learn every day, every week. And this one is just teaching me every day, Mike, you shouldn't have sold, man. Yeah, that's crazy. XLV, this was also just up quite a bit this week. XLU, utilities. Again, normally this is something where we'd be like, oh, it's getting defensive. Got to watch out. But XLU has been this AI adjacent area.
33:31And so a lot of what was driving XLU, of course, are some of these, you know, these energy plays for AI. So a little bit different there. And then the top area that we have in our list right now, at least, is the IBIT. I do have a position in IBIT. You know, the Bitcoin Trust ETF, that was up 1.5%. And I'm just going to show ETHA as well. That was up, you know, less. IBIT was a stronger day. ETHA was up as well. And I do have a position there. And we have both on Swing Trader. Yeah. No. We have ETHA. We should have put the IBIT on, but we were, yeah, that was a mistake. I do want to go back to the XLV because this one is fascinating to me.
34:23This is where the puck looks like it's moving. And when we saw that move up through the 200-day, we wanted to put it on, but it just was a bit early. And then the next day it was too late. So you went from early to late. Like, I love that because that tells you when something is really hard to get into, those are the ones you want to figure out a way to get into. And what we learned from Bill O 'Neill was when he would see something like that, he would go to his toolbox and just find anything that he could use to get in there. So what I would suggest folks do is go through the health care. Lots of these medicals are just bouncing up and having these moves where it's really hard to get positioned.
35:07But just search through them. Find the best ETFs and the best stocks in this space. Because let's go out to the monthly on this one. Because it's been problematic. You know, it's just been, look at that RS line. It's just been lagging for such a long period of time. Kind of like what IWM was doing. So this could be the next space where the money rotates into. Obviously, it's very news oriented, these moves. But this is what I'm the most excited about. Everyone knows about AI. AI is not going away, but they'll have their wiggles and wobbles. But I'd really like to get diversified into this space.
35:48But sometimes you just have to chase something. He would chase things every once in a while. Um, just if you just miss it, sometimes you just buy it. Um, and then you just obviously have to have your percent loss as your stop, whether it's 7 % or 3 % or, or something like that. So, um, anyways. And I should mention that, uh, as this was happening, you know, in real time, you, you were, you were looking, I mean, you were really pounding the pavement, looking for stocks, uh, to, to potentially put on in this space. It was just a lot of them were unfortunately out of position or the setups weren't that great.
36:26Let's pull up like a lily. I didn't look at that today, but there were a lot of them. They were like this. Just you can't buy it. It looked like it was moving up, but there was a lot of them like this that had just been dogs for a long period of time that clearly were getting a bid. And go to the weekly on this one. what I'm imagining is happening is more so than fresh money going in there. It's more shorts that are covering because it feels like this has been a safe place. And they all kind of look like this, just junky bases, like base underneath base, underneath base. And then finally, when the shift comes at first, I think it's the short covering rally.
37:06Then you get up and then form bases that you can actually that look good that you can buy. But there just wasn't, you know, anything that I could find with our methodology and our stops that would make sense. But you guys might be able to find something. So, you know, that's your homework for this weekend is to go through all the medicals. Start looking and share. Share. Yes. Sharing is caring. If you do find something that looks great. I'm Steve Booth, CEO of Baird, an independent wealth, asset management, and global capital markets firm. At Baird, our 5 ,000-plus employees are united by an unwavering commitment to excellence and a genuine passion for helping our clients and each other succeed.
37:48As a privately held, truly employee-owned company, we treasure our independence since we can focus on delivering results to clients and taking care of our people throughout the cycles in our serve markets. Learn more at rwbaird.com slash WSJ. Let's go ahead and take a look at some of the stocks. Speaking of health care, let's take a look at in the health insurance space, Oscar Health OSCR. This was, you know, quite the breakout just to kind of give an overall sense of where this has been. This has really been sitting out for a lot of the rally. You can see the relative strength line has suffered as a result, but a nice base breakout today.
38:27What are your thoughts, Webby? Yeah, I did buy some today, just a tiny position because it's wide and loose. Bill would have shot me if he saw me buying this because the base itself was not tight at all. And you can tell that by the move. It just looks like a normal move, but it was up 12%. So it tells you how wild this one has been. But again, it feels like the money is flowing into the space and it's a clean breakout. I'm just using today's low as an ultimate stop on there if I even let it go down that much just because it would be a pretty big loss on there. And that's why if you're doing something wild, you want to do it smaller to manage your risk that way.
39:10But let's go out to the weekly, or actually out to the monthly, I'm sorry. So on this one, you've got this giant V-shaped cup with handle. So you can see bigger patterns and then you can see smaller patterns. You can see patterns on monthlies and you can see them down onto a five minute chart. Bill O 'Neill would call me all the time and talk about the five-minute chart. He was a tape reader. And talk about the little cups and handles and flat bases that he saw on interday charts, as well as on a monthly. And when they're lined up like that, this looks like it has the potential to have a really big move.
39:49But let's go back to the weekly for a second. The weekly is so wide and loose. And the overall structure of this one being still stuck underneath the base that it had back in 24, that's a big mark against it. So if I were grading this, which I grade every stock, I'd give it a C, maybe a C minus, but really big potential on the upside. So worth a little nibble, but not worth something plunging. Let's go ahead and talk a little bit about housing. We'll stick with Pulte Home, but there were a lot to choose from in this space. And something that we've actually been talking about on IBD Live a lot this week.
40:31So where are we at here? And I should mention, this is one where we were on Swing Trader, really kind of going heavy in the housing area as things were looking like it was coming up. And it's hard, you know, this is one of those areas where you don't want to chase because you get a lot of these big moves, and then you immediately drift down. So if you kind of, you know, chase it on that big move, you're probably going to be looking at some trouble. But here we have kind of a pullback entry, didn't quite come to the 50-day moving average line. Again, I do have a position in this. And I'm just going to mention also the column that I wrote this week was on DR Horton, which was one of our swing trades that we had.
41:14Kind of a similar thing here where we had this big move. We waited for the pullback because we can just manage our risk a lot better. So we got DHI here, added to it here, and then we We started trimming as it was coming in there. But back to Pulte Homes. What do you think, Mike? Well, I have a position in both of these. And we just have to keep saying that just because it's a compliance thing. Anytime something comes up, we've got to say it. And so if I ever forget, I'm sorry, my intent is to say them all. I own most of the home builders at this point that look good or look good in my eyes. And because I think this move is going to be sustainable if it is for real.
41:55And sometimes you just got to keep it as simple as possible. If mortgage rates are going to come down and you have so many people that have been trapped in their homes and have been waiting for the mortgage rates to come down so they can move, maybe move to a different city or move to a different part of town or just a different house. but because they've been locked in on these very low rates, even though they're not going to get down into the twos or the threes where they were probably where most people have them, as you start coming down, you're more likely to go, hey, I'm going to go ahead and do that move that you're doing for whatever reason.
42:33So I think there's that pent-up demand there. And let's go to the monthly on this one. So it's more of a fundamental play because the chart isn't that good. I'll just be honest. It's not that good of a chart. It's more you're playing the fact that this group, when it moves, it tends to move for a sustained period of time. Let's zoom out for a second so we can see a little bit better. the 2000. So back in the 2000 and 2002, you can see how that sustained move that it had, lots of them in the group, they just moved together. And that's what I'm looking for. And when we were playing this heavy, we can go back to normal Zoom.
43:12And you can see on this monthly, it has the cup with handle that is forming, or certainly a cup that is forming at this point. Let's go over to the weekly.
43:26And with this one, a very clear cut cup with handle. What we were concerned about when we were buying it about a month ago was saying that that handle was so short, we were afraid that this was going to happen. And in fact, that might shake us out again. There might be several of these. And you just mentally prepare it every time to just go, you know, I'm going to give it a shot again because I want to get a toehold in it and then start building a position. if this is for real, it's not going to be done in a day or a week or a month. It's going to be a long move. So even with Swing Trader, we might try to play this out for a bigger move if it ends up working.
44:05So let's go to the daily now that we have this bigger view. It's on the weak side. It really is, you know, because when it broke that downtrend from the 142 area, It should have really had more oomph than it did, and it's just meandering up through there. It's not the type of field that you like, but again, sometimes you're playing just the chart. Other times you're playing the fundamentals and the chart. This one I'm playing really the sector and the fundamentals of the sector. We'll see. If it comes underneath and closes underneath today's low, probably start backing away from these. But our intent is to start building these a bigger portion in Swing Trader.
44:50We've got two of them on there right now, which is enough. It's almost maybe a little bit more than we should have on there right now, given what they've done. But it was nice to see this up a couple percent, given today wasn't the best day in the world. And closing well compared to, well, closing well just full stop, but especially compared to how most things closed today. Yeah, let's go ahead. Let's go to the queues on an interday chart for a second. Five minutes is fine. When that started falling mid, yeah, what time was that? So that was around 1 p.m. Eastern time. So 10 p.m., I mean, 10 a.m.
45:37Pacific time. OK, now pull up like XHB, which I have a position and or the PHM, either one or the, you know. So that was, you know, yeah, it was just holding in there versus. So you had a positive divergence when the market and everything was selling off. These were just still holding those gains. And that's a little clue that you want to look for of, is it disconnected from the market and the algos or not? And this one appears to be more disconnected than most other things we were looking at. Rounding it out. And, man, I just don't have your charts to get to. Oh, sugar in the morning. I'm sorry.
46:19I still need to get to the gym. So core weave. There have been a lot of new blood in the market. You know, we had that huge kind of, you know, a bunch of the special purpose acquisition companies and everything like that that came out in 2021. 2022 bear market, of course, nothing that like came down to a trickle. But this year has certainly seen a lot more in the IPO space coming out. And CoreWeave, definitely one of those that has gotten our attention. Tell us what's happening. First, this is a little bit more of a higher ATR stock than we'd like to talk about on either IBD Live or on the SMTs.
46:59But I just did want to bring it up for a few reasons. One, it's starting to set up in position where if it takes out basically the highs of this week or really even the highs of yesterday, something that I'll probably be trading. I like the gap up that it had midweek and holding in there tightly. is really, I'm looking at this as a cup with handle that started at 148.80. That is problematic because you have a prior downtrend versus a prior uptrend from 187 on down. So it has that mark against it, plus it's on the volatile side. But there was so much excitement about this one when it went public and that first initial move from 50 up to the 187, that it's a sign that it has that potential to have another big move.
47:50So I want to be part of that, but probably not from a big position standpoint because I think the ATR is over 8%, which means it travels more than 8 % in a given day. So you're playing with FIRE. So you want to dial, if you're going to even trade this, most people listening probably shouldn't even trade it. But if you're going to trade it, know exactly where your exit is, what percent that is. So if I was buying it off of yesterday's high, if it takes that out, I would be using today's high as my stop. I mean, today's low is my stop. So that would be the max loss I'd want to take. You always have to remember you can have gaps in there.
48:28So you want to just dial the position size accordingly. And let's move on because I know you got to get to the airport. So we've got to move on. The airport's not happening yet. I have to do charts first. But yeah, so the ATR Encore Weave is 8.64 just for comparison purposes. And this is, again, the 21-day ATR percentage. SPY is 0.74 just for comparison purposes. So yes, this is definitely on the higher ATR side, a lot more volatile and not necessarily appropriate for everybody. But Webby, I'm going to turn it over to you. Let's see your charts, bud. All right, let's do this. It's harder when I'm on a laptop.
49:08So yeah, Be with me a second. I know. I am challenged. Okay. Can you see my weekly? It's up. Okay. This is our Bob Weir. Take a step back, looking at the weekly candles to see if, is there anything that it's telling us that's a warning sign? And do you see the clear warning sign on this one? Of course you don't, because there's not one. I was just messing with you. You've got a positive candle, a higher high or higher low. So the only thing that's a little bit, if you're being nitpicky, is the top wick is a little bit bigger than the bottom wick. But you're just doing this just to see, are there any warning signs?
49:48No warning sign looks solid. Let's look at the NASDAQ. That one looks good as well. Let's go over to IWM. and not as powerful because it didn't have as much of a higher high, but still a nice candle in that your bottom wick, so from bottom wick is this portion down here, was longer than your top wick, something that is a big deal for me. So that all looks good. Now let's go over to the regression. And this is where we do have some problems. So this is our regression. We were using still the 50 days that start on May 12th and then go out to July 23rd. I will say we had a very good friend of both of us on your podcast this week, and I watched it.
50:42I don't get a chance to watch a lot of things, but I did watch that, and I thought you and Chris Gessel did a great job going over regression. So if you guys haven't watched that show, please make sure you tune in for it. Excellent job from two of my absolute favorite people in the world. And so with this, we're using those two anchor points. And the key, if you've never studied this, is the white line is your home base where the stocker index wants to get back to. That's your regression line. And what I don't like about this is we're just hugging the one standard deviation, which is the green line in the 0.75, which is your dash line on there.
51:23It should really have had more oomph than this, and you want it to get back up there. So that is a red flag. And the same basic thing with the NASDAQ, same dates that we were using on this one. It looks a little bit better than SPY, but still not as powerful as you'd like. You want it up into this area, which would be, you know, 23 ,500 or so. Now let's look at IWM. This is, you told me it was 45 days now, right? 45 days as of today from August 1st as day one. So we'll go out another five days and then lock this in because we'd like to, I'd like to use it. Well, that'll be next Friday. Look at that.
52:09So then we'll lock it in. And this is exactly where you'd want it to be. It's right at home base, doing nothing abnormal. In fact, really beautiful. Came down in, held above this, and then moved back up. And that's a normal and natural type of way that a stock works with a trend. So this is telling us more our thesis of the money moving into the small caps. It's just validating that. Let's look at the, excuse me, the 50 % retracement. I'm still using these old ones in here from the high from 923 and the low from 925 to see, are we in the northern hemisphere or the southern? We are in outer space because we're above the northern hemisphere.
52:55So when do you change that? When do you move that red line? I change it all the time. I will look at it on an interday chart. I'll look at it on a weeklies, monthlies, and I was going to do that, but I thought, you know what, let's, let's leave it as is for this week. And, um, if you can do this very granular on a five minute chart and you can do it on a monthly chart and everything in between. Um, but since it's not a 10 hour show, it's, um, even though I have to do one, uh, yeah, uh, this one is, uh, it's not Santa Claus. It's not above the, you know, It was just right underneath the North Pole there, but still looking okay.
53:39Did I do the IWM? And that one underneath there a little bit. So we wanted to get above the North Pole out into outer space. All right, let's move on. I'm trying to simplify these to not have as many lines on here. This is spy and the levels. The most important level to watch is the low from 925, and that's a 654.30, which coincides with where the 21-day was at that point. So if it got through there, we would be well underneath your 21-day, probably about 50 % to your 50-day. Your next line in there would be your low on August 20th. But there are other ones that I removed just to keep it a little cleaner.
54:26Let's look at the composite. Same thing here. Your most recent low of 925 becomes an important level. On here, I did keep the high from August 13th in there just because it was coinciding with your 50-day. If something coincides with a key moving average, I like to put it on there. Whereas like this one here, the low from the 20th that we're using is in no, it's nowhere, right? It's well underneath your 50-day, which is your red line, and well above your 200-day. So that's not as meaningful as this 21 ,800 change. Now let's move over to the new thing that we've been adding on here. And these are your Fibonacci numbers for moving averages.
55:21from very short-term to long-term. And you can use whatever numbers on there. I like using FIBS. And I'm just trying to see, are they stacked the proper way or not? And it's just a reality check. All the moving averages, the shorter ones are above the longer-term ones. And that's a good thing. And just something I've been doing for a while, but just recently started sharing here. Same thing on the NASDAQ. And the same thing on the IWM. Obviously, that looks the strongest. Then my favorite one, I think this was Ali's favorite one too, is just a very simple use in the 21-day. Get rid of all the noise.
56:02Just use the most basic thing. That blue line is your 21-day exponential. Are you above it or not? Is your low above it or not? It's clearly above it. It's looking good. No warning signs there. No warning signs for the NASDAQ. And no warning signs for the IWM or the RSP, which the RSP was actually a problem for a while because it couldn't get its low above that for some time. And now your low is starting to trend above it. And this is your equally weighted SPI. So that is a good thing. Let me switch over to our other charts. Hold on one sec. I'm trying to make up for lost time here. That was my fault.
56:47I asked you too many questions. You can't do that. Anyone knows that. You've known me since 1998, and you can't be doing those types of things. All right. So I'm not going to take any responsibility for my own actions because, you know, I'll put it on you. So here is the WebE RSI. And if you don't know me, I'm joking. This is your histogram down here of your low versus your 21-day expresses ATRs. This is normal and healthy. Now, we came all the way down in where we didn't have one when the low went below it. Now, you're right back up kind of where you were before. So, that's a good thing. Let's look at the NASDAQ moving back up.
57:38So, that's healthy. I think we'd like it to stay up in this area. That's fine. And then IWM, you were starting to get a little bit of an oomph there. So that's nice. We'd like to see some power now after a test. Let's see what the RSP looks like. So the RSP is starting to move up there nicely. Let's toggle over to my daughter's favorite charts, the Bob Marley ones. This is measuring your low or, you know, how close your low is to your high in terms of ATRs. So your green area is within four ATRs, yellow areas, four to eight ATRs. And below that, below eight is the red area. And you're just looking to see, are there any clues in here?
58:24We look at a bunch of different charts, but they're all based on the same thing, on the price. We're not looking at a bunch of weird things or a bunch of internals. We're just looking at what is the price doing? And is there anything jumping off the page, negative or positive? There's nothing there, so you don't have to spend more time on it. Nothing with the NASDAQ. And let's look at the IWM continues to just power up the right side. So that's a good thing. And with that, I have made up a lot of time. And we're underneath an hour now, so you can go onto your charts. And I hope you have a safe flight.
59:01I'm so looking forward to hanging out with you, with Chris, with Arusha. Charles Harris is going to be here. I wish everyone could be here at the Founders Club event out here at the Venetian. And it should be a really fun weekend. Yeah, looking forward to it as well. But before we go, let's talk just a little bit about plans for next week. Because, again, we didn't have the greatest close today. But as you mentioned, there really isn't any big warning signs. We're kind of either up in space or well above any areas that would cause us concern. So you mentioned at the outset, you pulled back a little bit on Swing Trader going into the weekend.
59:45But what is the plan for next week? Because you did say, hey, part of it is to have dry powder for potential new buys. Well, I really want to get something in the medical space. I also wanted to have some dry powder in case the home builders continued to build on this, you know, very, you know, kind of mediocre ramp up. But also just to when you see breaks like we had today, intraday, and there's some weird action in a lot of stocks. I am a big fan when you're swing trading of the quick and the dead. Now, position trading, totally different. It's a totally different game. game. It's kind of like football versus, I don't know, sports, football versus basketball.
1:00:31Like they're just different, like different balls, different, you know, like totally different games. So position trading, you're looking at what the 10-week moving average is doing. You're giving it time. You're not doing much trading. You're just, hey, we're still in a power trend. Leave things alone. When you're swing trading, the benefit to swing trading is to manage your equity curve and then make sure that that equity curve doesn't go down, that's your account balance, doesn't go down off your highs. If not, then you should just position trade, right? So that's why when you're swing trading, the first sign of any problem is you start backing away and then you can always get, quickly get back in.
1:01:14And so I'm just going to look and see, and this is what folks should do this weekend is of stocks that are above their 50-day and above their 200-day, above$10 and above a decent amount of liquidity, meaning at least$25 million volume for a swing trader in our own trades. Most of the time we go with$75 million volume or higher. And then look and see where did they close within the weekly closing range. So if they closed at the top of the bar, that would be 100. The bottom of the bar would be zero. And that's an easy way to see rotations of where is that money flowing. So what I'm going to be doing is that basic screen.
1:01:52So above$10, above$25 million volume, above your 50-day and your 200-day, that's my universe. It'll give me about, in excluding ETFs, give me about 900 to 1 ,000 stocks. Then I'm going to sort it by sector, the broad sector. So like chips or medicals, things like that, energy, utilities, then the next sort, and you can do this easily in market surge where you can just lock that in, the sector, then lock it in by the next thing of the closing range for the week and looking at what was up the highest. So in that sector, if I'm looking through autos, okay, what stock in there closed at the top of the range?
1:02:36Then when I get into the banks or finance, which ones were at the top? Because that is where that puck is going. I'm going to spend a lot of time on those medicals to see, you know, is there something in position? Because it did feel like a rotation, you know, into that space as well as the home builders to a certain extent. As you mentioned, some of the finance things were still looking good. And what I like still about the market is the heat, the super junk that I'm trading to is still doing well on balance. The really high octane story stocks. And that's what was in the 90s. Those stocks, Bill wouldn't touch them because they didn't have the fundamentals.
1:03:23But it was a sign that the – and I wasn't trading them either because I was trying to trade orthodox stocks within his methodology. But you've got a lot of these story stocks that are having these really good moves. And frankly, the IPO market is starting to look a little bit better than it had in a while. What I would suggest people do, in addition, after that, if you want to start trading IPOs, you need to get a real sense of reality. This is a thing I did yesterday after I flew in because unlike you, you're coming in late today. I came in yesterday because I'm like, you know, getting a little extra time acquainted in an area.
1:04:04But I went through every IPO, every single IPO this year and last year. And you can do that in market surge again. And you just put in there, when did it IPO and do 2024 and do no other filters and play through that from the percent off high. And it will give you a true respect for how dangerous IPOs can be. When they don't work out, they just tank and they keep going down. If you are the type to freeze up, do not ever trade an IPO because those are the ones where you can lose 70, 80, 90, 100 % of your money and just go, what happened? Because it is a slow death in there, just inches down, inches down, and you're waiting for a bounce that never happens.
1:04:54So if you do that, you will treat those differently. And when I was going through that, that Corwee was one of the better, you know, one of the best looking ones in that, you know, out of those recent IPOs, but a lot of those just completely tanked and don't trade an IPO until you've done that exercise. I've actually spent months and months and months looking at every IPO in existence when I created the IPO base a decade or so ago that I did that from 1963 to whatever year that was. I got a list of every IPO ever, ones that went out of business, and I studied them and I walked away with that same thing.
1:05:33Most of them don't work, but those ones that work, oh my gosh, they are game changers. They are special. Yeah. So that's your homework. I think I give people a lot of homework this week, and that's kind of cool. Yeah, exactly. And you're going to be in Vegas. So, okay, good on you. But I'm going to be, you know, it's not really work because I get to hang out with all the great people at work that I get to see. And then all of our family members, you know, the attendees, I just consider them extended family. And some of my favorite, yeah, this is what it's all about. I'm really, really looking forward to it.
1:06:09It's not work. It's just it's just fun. Yeah, I'm looking forward to getting on the road myself. So I'll be I'll be sliding in shortly. But thanks so much, Mike, for all of your commentary. That's going to wrap it up for us this week. Join us next week because we will be giving those updates on where we're at in terms of all of our indicators, hopefully with a fresh round of stocks and more guidance for what we're seeing in the market. and if you haven't joined us already, you can always join us at IBD Live for our morning show where we talk about the market from 10 minutes to the market open until an hour and a half or sometimes more.
1:06:47You can always catch us there at investors.com slash IBD Live for a trial to check us out and see if that's something that can help you out with your trading. Thanks so much to everyone for watching. We'll see you next time. Bye now.
1:07:04Thank you.
1:07:34operational demonstration machine, General Fusion is advancing toward commercialization, targeting a first-of-a-kind fusion plant around 2035. Learn more at generalfusion.com.
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Justin Nielsen and Mike Webster wrap up the week’s market action and discuss key stocks to watch on Stock Market Today.
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