Still Counting: Trump vs. The BLUE WAVE: A Midterm Extravaganza

0:00Hey, Stricties. It's Melissa. We wanted to share with you an excerpt from a new series that we are so excited about here at Crooked Media. It's from the folks who brought you the 538 podcast, and it's called Still Counting. Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Galen Druke have spent their careers breaking down political data, honing their expertise in the numbers behind the numbers—election results, demographic changes, historical trends, and the polls. And on their new show, Still Counting, they are going to cover even more. From politics to prediction markets to AI and even sports. Yes, sports. You can listen, Justice Kavanaugh.

0:34You'll get rigorous analysis, a few hot takes, but no spin or false sense of certainty. Just the numbers and what they tell us about this moment, delivered fresh each Wednesday evening. We are so excited to share this with all of you. So without further ado, here's a sneak peek of Still Counting. This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. You know when people try on new food and suddenly it's like, wait. That's the reaction a lot of people are having when they first try Kewpie mayo. It's the one with the red cap and the little baby on the bottle.

1:11You've probably seen it in the grocery store before. And if you've ever just walked past it, some people would say that's a huge mistake. Because this mayo is different. Most mayonnaise uses whole eggs. Kewpie only uses egg yolks, which gives it this rich umami flavor. It's smoother, deeper, and almost buttery. Once people try it, they start putting it on everything. Egg sandwiches, fries, burgers. Some fans even swear by dipping pizza crust in it. And once you notice it, you start seeing it everywhere. Chefs use it. Restaurants use it. People who really care about flavor use it. Never tried it?

1:43Grab the bottle with the red cap next time you're at the store. Put it on just about anything. Then you'll understand. Kewpie, the original Japanese mayonnaise. Hello, appliance fans. I'm here at Grand Appliance, where Bill just bought a premium Bosch benchmark dishwasher. Talk about your experience, Bill. My salesperson was an appliance genius. She told me about their free install offer on benchmark appliances, and it was a done deal for me. Wow, free install from the pros at Grand? That's a no-brainer. Agreed. They make it so easy. There you have it. Grand for the win. Check out GrandAppliance.com for full details.

2:21I think I'm just like a little bit nervous. That's why I'm like, I know. It feels weird. It feels weird.

2:30Welcome to Still Counting. I'm Galen Druk. I'm Claire Malone. And I'm Nate Silver. And we're talking too fast because it's the first episode and we're a little nervous. I also read my name. I was like, I'm Claire Malone. And this is our first official episode. Yes, we did a freed warmer. Yes, we talked to Pod Save America. But this is it, folks. From now on, on Wednesday evening, you're going to get a Still Counting podcast episode in your feed. And so for, you know, first I'll say this is what we're going to do on today's podcast. We're going to do a midterms extravaganza. We're even going to kind of play a game.

3:05We're also going to talk about sort of the past year plus in Republican voter sentiment. It's been a pretty topsy-turvy year for the Trump coalition. We're going to talk about the convention and all that jazz, the anniversary of Charlie Kirk's death. Before we get into everything that we have to cover today, though, we should say welcome back, everybody. Yeah. To our past listeners. Spread the word. Welcome to the new people. Hopefully, if you have no idea who we are, really, welcome to Still Counting. Well, actually, Claire, who are we? Who are we? I'm Claire Malone. The script says. we all worked together at a data site called FiveThirtyEight.

3:46And I was hired by Nate to be like the normal magazine reporter. To be normal. I was hired by Nate to be normal. I was hired by Nate to be normal, to be like a magazine reporter person. And then I'm sort of a traditional reporter. I am a writer at The New Yorker. I cover media and politics there. And I am currently on book leave for the year, actually going back in like six months. and I'm writing a book about the Maha movement. That's who I am. Nate, who are you? I'm Claire Malone. That's what it says in the script. Yeah, so my trajectory into journalism, if that's what you want to call it, is highly non-traditional.

4:24Before I ever got into journalism, I was an online poker player. I was building baseball models. Basically, 2008 comes along. I'm living in Chicago. This campus hipster, as I thought of him, named Barack Obama, decides to run for president. It was a very exciting time in politics and also a time when there had been in baseball and in sports, a lot of talk about analytics. This was a kind of money ball revolution, so to speak. I was getting a little burned out with the baseball stuff. The poker was not going super well, to be honest. And so I started trying to build a forecasting model, first for the Democratic primary in 2008 and then general election.

5:01And it just kind of and probably took off. But yeah, you know, I try to look at the world. I sometimes do reporting, but I'm looking at this through a list. He's written two books. I've written two. For the books, I do actually do real reporting. For the books, I do. Which, for the most recent book, involved hanging out in Las Vegas playing poker for a year. I spent a lot of time in Vegas, yeah. Made basically loose. It was a nice excuse. Silicon Valley, Miami. But, like, I don't do a lot of insider gossip with, oh, what's the scoop about the internal polls in New Hampshire? Like, I think that is actually a waste of time.

5:35You're being spun a lot of the time. I think the goal of a model, we talked about this on the Pod Save trailer, it's to force yourself to be more rigorous in analyzing the news. And explaining how you view the world. And now, and Nate had a, he started Five Theory Date, which was at the New York Times. Then it moved to ESPN. Then they closed it. Yada, yada, yada. Now he has a wonderfully. Silver Bulletin, which is at natesilver.net. But like, look, we got Flipper as our midterms model. We got LA, our NFL model. Okay, I will do a briefer. Who am I? I was hired by Nate at 538. Not in the less weirdness initiative, I'll tell you that much.

6:13I was hired to be a podcast twink at 538. We were hired at about the same time. Yes, we were. You came from Wisconsin. I came from, straight from Wisconsin Public Radio, which at the time, I could not have imagined how good of an education Wisconsin would have given me for what was to come in American politics.

6:35Things are going incredibly well. Anyway, I stuck around FiveThirtyEight for about a decade where I did basically a combination of field reporting analysis, looking at the data, did things like the gerrymandering project. And once FiveThirtyEight shut down, I started GD Politics, which is a podcast that I host on Mondays and Thursdays, talking to a bunch of people who are journalists, authors, sometimes politicians, pollsters who look at data and try to make sense of it all. And I'm going to try to take some of that knowledge that I get from all the people I talk to and bring it to folks here as well.

7:11But anyway, enough of that, enough throat clearing. Let's dive into what's on hand today. But first, let me just say, dear listeners, and And for our YouTube audience, I'm looking straight to camera for this one. Previous listeners, new listeners alike, spread the word. Subscribe on YouTube, wherever you listen to podcasts. Also, rate and review us. Like, I don't know exactly how the algorithm works. That's Nate's job. But apparently on Apple Podcasts, the more you rate and review us, the higher up we go. And the more people see us. And then we'll maybe get introduced to the podcast. Basically, we're out here trying to rebuild an audience.

7:46And it's like a political campaign. It's going to take all of us. Yes. Okay. See, Claire and I would never do that, right? That's why you're a good hire. We're like, do our, do our, do our, do our, do our, do our, do our, do our, do our, do our The podcast, podcast twonk now. Okay. We are officially post-Labor Day. We're officially post-I almost wore a white suit coat this morning, which first of all wouldn't have looked like. Would have popped on the back of it. You're a Condé Nast employee. You must not be wearing white after Labor Day. It's an old school rule. So yes, we are post-Labor Day, which is officially when we stop wearing white, when we go back to school.

8:19It is also, historically, when people begin to tune into the election cycle in our highly polarized and partisan and engaged environment, I think people pay attention a little bit sooner than that. But nonetheless, we are going to use that as an opportunity to dive into the midterm. So right now, Nate, your model, named Flipper, suggests that Democrats have an 83 % chance of winning the House, and the Senate forecast is split exactly 50-50. Did you design the forecast that way to build suspense at the start of election season? I'm kidding. So when you first launched, the Senate favored Democrats.

8:56Slightly. Slightly, not overwhelmingly, but I think it peaked at about 58 % less than a month ago in terms of Democrats' likelihood of taking the Senate. What has happened between then and now? So a couple of things have happened. Number one, people get really sensitive about like 50 versus 55 versus 57. It's not a big deal. It's like in an NBA game, it's like one point being scored or two points being scored. You take it from Knicks ahead by a point to the Raptors ahead by a point or whatever else. So when you're near 50-50, small moves affect the probabilities a fair bit. That's getting a little technical.

9:31There are a couple of things that have happened. One is that we've started to get more polls among likely voters and not just registered voters. And that matters because turnout is relatively low in midterms, higher than it used to be. But as our model has been adjusting to those, earlier in the cycle, it felt like there was a bigger – didn't feel like – I guess I don't know if it has feelings. I guess we use AI, right? Maybe it has feelings. Don't anthropomorphizing models, Nate. I used to be an anti-anthropomorphizer and now just you say, oh, the model thinks. Anyway, as we've gotten more generic ballot polls among likely voters, they don't show quite as much of an enthusiasm gap.

10:10I mean I'm being too technical. Now I'm just, by the way, to interject, now I'm just thinking about whether or not you think the model could ever kill you. Per discussions on Twitter about AI. I switched from Claude to ChachyPT in the middle of Flipper. Because it was trying to kill you? The Claude Opuses were kind of weird, right? They would, like, they'd be quite stubborn and lazy. What is a Claude Opus? I don't use it. We have the full range of AI use here, which is, like, Nate has at least 12 AI employees. I use AI regularly, but like don't make it code for me. I literally spent - You don't use AI.

10:43I do not use AI. I don't know what it is. Here's the summary version, right? As we get closer to the election, I think you see like a little bit of a rebound in Republican enthusiasm. It's having a marginal effect on the numbers and some of these kind of less polled races in the generic ballot. Look, Trump's approval rating is 38 percent or so. His disapproval rating is 58, 59 percent. he's not very popular, but Democrats aren't that popular either. So I think you might be seeing just the slightest bit of reversion to the mean, but there's lots of layers in Flipper. There are expert forecasts.

11:18Is New Hampshire now a state that's in play? How realistically do we take Tallarico's? The model says Tallarico is a slight favorite in Texas. Do we buy that or not? We're going to get into actually all of these states, and we're even going to get into Trump's popularity and his coalition and whatnot. But first, we're going to play a little game. I mean, not first. We're going to play a little game in order to talk about all of these states. But it's educational. But it's educational. We're not. A little game, which is we're going to draw the most competitive Senate races out of a hat, and that's most competitive according to the polling averages.

11:55And that means that we don't know the order that we're going to talk about them in. It's the state of the race in gamified form. Yes, exactly. And I will say, I have a GD politics hat here, which is only because we don't have... Shameless shill. Because I'm a shameless shill. And also because we don't have still counting merch yet. But I hear it's coming. I hope it's coming. I think it's coming. I think it's coming. You know, we got to, Nate, you got to stop advertising. I mean, we all love the Knicks. We live in New York City, but you got to stop advertising the Knicks for free on this podcast.

12:20We're getting silver bulletin hats. By the way, I'm happy to advertise the Knicks, you know? As long as Dolan doesn't kick me out. Okay. Claire, you are first. Okay. So pick a race out of the hat. Wait, by the way, last night in preparation for talking about all of the Senate races, I think I watched ads for every single Senate candidate or most of them just to kind of get a flavor. I was like, I want to see. And did it make you feel more optimistic or more pessimistic about American politics? Well, I have to say it was quite pessimistic. Like that was after watching like, you know, kind of close to like 40 minutes of just like, you know, don't don't don't like it's.

12:57Well, none of these people have ever been to Washington, D.C. It was it was basically all about like how much beef costs and isn't it terrible and insurance companies. And that was both parties. It was like, yeah, it was quite striking how public it was. Anyhow. OK, I picked North Carolina, which is a bad pick. It's definitely a bad pick. It's a bad pick because we're pretty sure that the Democrat Roy Cooper is going to win in his race against Republican Michael Watley. Roy Cooper and that win probability according to Flipper trademark Nate Silver it's pronounced the dolphin it's like Flipper

13:41how did you name it? we've already had a problem with furries and the 538 politics podcast brand we really don't need to give them any fodder how did you name it Flipper? ours are good because like ours for regression or like I don't want to know OK, so but Flipper gives the Democratic win probability at 86.9 percentage points. Let's put it like that. It's it's not a sure thing that Cooper wins in North Carolina. But it would be embarrassing. But if he doesn't, Democrats are fucked anyway. That means the polls are probably probably way off again. They need four seats. By the way, Galen, you're saying, well, 50 50.

14:17Is that just a cop out? It's kind of a coincidence because, like, we think it's going to be and everyone thinks it's going to be a very Democratic year. but they have to win four seats, two of which are in quite red states. North Carolina is not a quite red state. It's a slightly red state. Like we have in your, your handwriting's actually better than I thought, Gailen. This is Saul. This is Saul. This is producer Saul. We're introducing producer Saul who has in Nate's reading pretty good handwriting. And I would agree with that. That's the only job that might survive the AI apocalypse is like good handwriting.

14:50It's rare. What you were going to say is that Trump won North Carolina by three points in 2024, which is a slightly red state. And Harris only, he only won the whole thing by one and a half point, right? So North Carolina actually moved toward the tipping point. It was one of the few positives out of Kamala Harris's night in November 2024 was that North Carolina actually became more purple. And Cooper's a strong candidate. He's the former governor. If he weren't to win, then it means the polls were way off again. Right. Yeah. I mean, in terms of overall trends to look at, I think an interesting one here is that we've all been talking about the anti-establishment sentiment amongst the electorate this go round.

15:33Roy Cooper is like a two term governor. He has good candidate, like well known in the state. But he is. I mean, he's not really the establishment because he's running against the Democratic Party in part. And he's like, you know, I don't belong to anybody. I'm my own man. He's very much been a feature of state politics and not national politics. And so I think the benefit of being a governor suggest that he is a good candidate to run in North Carolina. But he's not running. You know, the Republican Michael Watley is not really a populist outsider who can say the establishment has sort of taken the country in the wrong direction, whatever.

16:07He's like the former chair of the Republican Party in North Carolina. So I think whereas maybe being so entrenched in politics could have been a vulnerability, the contours of this race are not going to let us see that. Great. So takeaway is panic at the disco for Democrats if Roy Cooper loses. Nate, next race that you're picking out of the hat. Second pick. Dig in there. Of course. Is this right? Michigan. Michigan. Dramatic pick. Abdul El-Sayed leads by roughly two points in the Silver Bulls and polling average. Does not include, by the way, a new Glenn Gareth poll. I don't think that came out last night after a publication deadline that might cut it down to one or one and a half.

16:48Look, we've talked a lot about Michigan. If you haven't listened to any of the preview episodes. We were on Pod Save America talking about the Michigan race. The basic lay of the land is something like this. Michigan is about as purple as it gets. It almost exactly follows the national trend. The national trend this year is around D plus seven, meaning in the average state, if you count up all the votes for all 435 House races, you'd expect Democrats to win by about seven. Michigan, therefore, is also about a plus seven. The question is, can El-Sayed be a quote-unquote bad enough candidate? I'll explain what I mean by that, right?

17:26Or Mike Rogers, a quote-unquote good enough candidate to overcome that seven-point spread? Now, the different ways to define bad candidate, when a certain type of election nerd like me means that, it just means they're likely to underperform the baseline. It doesn't mean they're a bad person. It doesn't mean that I don't like their ideas. They're not charismatic. And there's a lot of research that I think people are in some degree of denial about that says, in general, more moderate candidates, how you define moderation is complicated, tend to overperform. And moderation, we should say, just complicated to define it, can often be affected by gender, race, things like that.

18:03Absolutely. It's interesting, by the way, that El Sayed is kind of like playing in to this kind of almost like fuckboy image, right? It's like, oh, yeah, I like women. I think it's more like he lifts, right? He lifts. So he's raised a lot of money. He inspires a lot of young voters. He also turns off a lot of voters. And so but, you know, here's the thing. Even if you believe, and we do, that moderation hard to define probably helps. We also understand that polarization is driving everything. And actually, voters are pretty smart, right? Voters might say, I understand that Mike Rogers might come across as moderate, but empirically, he's going to vote with Trump the large majority of the time.

18:46And El Sayer will probably vote with Democrats the large majority of the time. And we're kind of moving into a parliamentary system where the candidates matter less. So in a model, you might say, OK, there's like a three or four point penalty here. A seven point cushion is enough to cover it. In the polls, there's for now a little bit more of a penalty. It's closer to a toss up, maybe El Sayer by one point than plus seven. And by the way, in my in my tour of candidate ads last night, I mean, I actually think the way that El Sayed is kind of trying to present himself to general election voters is not moderating on the issues.

19:20Right. Which is which is, I think, kind of, you know, key for his campaign. Right. He's running a real like true believers Medicare for all plan in some ways. He's not actually a democratic socialist, but I think he's sort of running the Elizabeth Warren playbook where it's like, I'm a progress. No, hold on. Wait, let me finish my thought, which is like I'm a progressive, but like, don't worry, I'm not here to tear down capitalism. Like that was her thing. And I but I think where he is, where you see him trying to, quote unquote, moderate is on that perception of him as an extremist. Right. So like he has a lot of stuff about like he has the ad with his grandparents.

19:53He has the ad about like I grew up playing football in Michigan. Like I feel obligated as a Ohioan to say muck fish again. But like that stuff. that stuff was that one planned was that one planned it wasn't it just came to me it just came to me but that's but that's where he's trying to moderate on is the perception right like of him as the like scary which is smart right which by the way Mike Rogers is playing into by like saying his saying like Abdul Rahman you know so there's there's interesting dynamics about what we mean as a moderate candidate there I'll say it's somebody who got some blowback from in the comments after we were on never read the comments America because I had described El-Sayed as a below average candidate or liable to perform below where a quote unquote generic Democrat is.

20:39I was really talking about the numbers and the perception of El-Sayed as an extreme candidate. And I think like people interpreted that all to be about Israel because that's kind of where a lot of the comments are sort of, I guess, in the left space online. But I really don't actually think as much as that has been a sort of knock down, drag out fight for the Democratic Party, what is going to decide this race? I think the most important thing that like my takeaway for the Michigan race is that it is a very high profile test for progressives, for the activist left. You said he hasn't moderated that much.

21:18I will say on issues like and I think issues like defund the police, abolish ICE, Medicare care for all, those kinds of things will actually motivate voters more than the Israel question. Because those are the, for example, health care, safety, cost of goods, corruption. Those are the kinds of things that are motivating voters in this election. I mean, I looked through all of the polling and really like the Israel-Palestine question, as much as it may motivate activists, for the broad sort of base of American voters, it is not ranking up there. It's really, again, than inflation, sort of incompetence in government and corruption, than the economy more broadly.

22:01Data centers, flock cameras, like these are local issues that are actually... And the war in Iran. When you ask people, like, what's very important to you? 50 % of voters say the war in Iran, 22 % of voters say the Israel-Gazi issue. So I think, I just want to say here, that like when people, when this battle plays out sort of in the general election in Michigan for Senate. I think that the test is going to be, so he has pivoted away from defund the police. He has not pivoted away from abolish ICE. He's pivoted a little on healthcare, where he wrote a book with the sort of prologue written by Bernie Sanders about Medicare for All.

22:37He said, you know, I don't want to, now he said, I don't want to abolish private insurance. Those things can coexist, et cetera. And so I think that this is going to be viewed as a test for whether the left can perform in a battleground state ahead of what's going to be also a knockdown dragout fight in the 2028 Democratic primaries. Look at me, we got the most boring and the most controversial in the first two picks. He is a former podcaster. Yeah, wait, at Crooked Media, right? A recovering podcaster, that might be too much to overcome, I think. Well, wait, this is amazing because polling groups have asked Americans what are the most attractive and least attractive traits for a candidate at, you know, these kind of strategy groups.

23:20Can you guess what one of the least attractive traits for a candidate is? Well, now I know. Podcast host. We can never run. And while socialist was also one of them, he said, again, he's he is not DSA, although he sort of is seen oftentimes with AOC and Bernie Sanders and people who align with the. I don't think you realize it's like a sake. You can't pull your own sake. I'll hold it for you. Okay. All right. Thank you. What is that? That's some rich bitch stuff he just said. Okay. I got Iowa, which is Josh Turk, the Democrat versus Ashley Hinson, currently in the... That was an excerpt from the first episode of Still Counting.