In short
Career planning and impact in the AI era, using Ben Todd’s 80,000 Hours framework and addressing AI risks (especially AI alignment), plus how AI adoption bottlenecks may shift what “solid ground” looks like for AI practitioners.
Guest backgrounds
Benjamin Todd co-founded 80,000 Hours, a charity and research organization helping people choose careers with high social impact. He is president (largely advisory) and author of the book “80,000 Hours: How to Have a Fulfilling Career That Does Good.” 80,000 Hours offers free online resources, a job board (~1,000 postings), and free one-on-one advice; it has grown to 50+ staff.
Key claims
Small improvements to career fit can be high value (1% improvement framed as ~800 hours / ~20 weeks). Failure modes include over-preparing and acting too early. Use an ABZ plan (Plan A best guess, Plan B nearby pivots, Plan Z backup if things go wrong) to enable risk-taking. “Follow your passion” is often backwards; fulfillment comes from mastery + meaningful work. AI safety/alignment remains highly neglected relative to AI capability growth; alignment is still “TBD” because dangerous long-horizon, deceptive agents aren’t here yet. For AI careers, focus on bottlenecks that remain human-valuable as AI improves; adoption work may stay valuable.
Notable examples
Canadian students’ passion mismatch (dance/ice hockey vs limited job share); “scope neglect” seagull donation study; AI agents coordinating via “neuralese”/embeddings (not just natural language); potential “digital remote worker” scenario shifting bottlenecks to legal/liability and physical constraints (data centers, robotics).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOThe Importance of Career Choices
0:56 to 5:20
Ben Todd discusses the significance of career decisions and the resources provided by 80,000 Hours.
“This episode of Super Data Science is made possible by Anthropic, Cisco, Excel Data, and Garobi.”
Understanding the ABZ Career Framework
5:20 to 6:28
Ben explains the ABZ framework for career planning, emphasizing the need for backup plans.
“So we have, um, over 50 staff and there's a free one-on-one advice.”
Calculating Risks in Career Decisions
6:28 to 8:52
The discussion turns to quantifying risks and expected values in career options to make informed decisions.
“but there's maybe less interest today than five years ago in working in a call center.”
The Growth of AI Safety Careers
8:52 to 11:24
Ben highlights the increasing interest and neglected opportunities in AI safety careers since their last discussion.
“I mean, so we are, so we're trying to help people find careers, especially with the biggest impact on the world.”
Passion vs. Mastery in Career Fulfillment
11:24 to 14:01
Ben discusses the counterintuitive idea that developing mastery leads to fulfillment more than merely following passion.
“timing to get into ai um just before chat gpt um which i mean i didn't fully i didn't it's Definitely things have moved a lot faster than I expected.”
Mastery Over Passion in Career Fulfillment
14:01 to 17:40
Explore the counterintuitive thesis that mastery in valuable work leads to fulfillment rather than simply following one's passion.
“And the reason why it's so popular is because its thesis is something counterintuitive.”
Navigating AI Career Opportunities
18:09 to 28:00
Discover the evolving landscape of AI careers and the importance of adapting to changes in technology.
“And I remember even like there were like 10 of us that were selected for the program.”
The Intersection of AI and Physical Labor
28:00 to 29:50
Explore how AI could transform physical labor industries, including construction and robotics.
“Well, yeah, I mean, this is kind of what's happening is a lot of construction and energy and data center building.”
Automation and Economic Bottlenecks
29:50 to 32:50
Discuss the potential economic impacts of automating labor and the rapid scaling of robotics.
“they think this might, they kind of assume this will be a very long process, which it might be, but I do have a, I have a Substack post about how quickly could you scale up robotics?”
The Future of Work and Job Automation
32:50 to 35:00
Understand the implications of job automation on career paths and workforce dynamics.
“so these AI firms could actually even if they just had like human levels of intelligence just through being able to coordinate much better.”
Show all 32 chapters
Relational Jobs and Human Value
35:00 to 37:10
Examine the small fraction of jobs that may always require a human touch despite automation.
“And then there is this, like, there is also this question of like, will actually everything always get, eventually get automated?”
Evolving Career Opportunities
37:10 to 39:50
Consider how careers may evolve as automation rises and leisure activities become prioritized.
“People spend a lot more of their income on like luxury travel experiences as they get richer.”
Post-Work Society and Meaning
39:50 to 42:01
Reflect on the societal implications of a post-work world and the search for meaning.
“And yeah, I guess I agree with you that we don't know what the careers in the future are going to be, but I don't think it's necessarily as, you know, some people are like, well, there's not going to be any jobs.”
The Economic Cost of Humanity in an AI-Driven Future
42:01 to 45:00
Explore how increasing AI capabilities may render human labor economically obsolete.
“So yeah, it's not like we get exterminated for being expensive, but we just kind of are expensive, uh, compared to these loftier goals that the system through some, yeah, just happens to, yeah.”
Demographics and Family Planning in a Technological Era
45:01 to 47:18
Understand how education and economic factors influence birth rates in a future with advanced AI.
“I mean, so the saving grace you'd hope is that like, ultimately, I mean, we're getting like pretty far out there now, but like ultimately all the energy and matter is like in space, right?”
Identifying Global Problems for Impactful Solutions
47:19 to 48:34
Learn about prioritizing global issues that need attention for maximum impact.
“Energy is very inexpensive because we have abundant fusion energy.”
AI Alignment: Current Challenges and Perspectives
48:35 to 50:18
Discuss the complexities surrounding AI alignment and its implications for future technology.
“we have this list of like the most pressing global problems where we've tried to assess them in terms of scale, solvability and neglectedness.”
The Risks of AI-Induced Power Concentration
50:19 to 55:46
Examine how AI could lead to unprecedented levels of power concentration and the associated risks.
“And you kind of, you already touched on a few minutes ago in this episode, the second most pressing problem, according to 80 ,000 hours, which is extreme power concentration.”
The Implications of Historical Patterns on Future Governance
55:47 to 56:01
Reflect on how historical power dynamics might shape the future interactions between governments and AI.
“enough, the government doesn't have enough workers to monitor what everyone is doing.”
Reflections on Past Statements
56:01 to 56:56
The host reflects on potentially controversial past statements in light of AI advancements.
“and flag anything that they're doing that's suspicious, it's like suddenly possible.”
Addressing AI Risks and Challenges
56:56 to 59:57
Discussion on the pressing issues related to AI, including power concentration and engineered pandemics.
“Yeah, this extreme power concentration thing is...”
The Concept of S-Risks in AI
59:57 to 1:02:18
Exploration of S-risks and their implications for AI and society.
Urgency of Addressing Global Problems
1:02:18 to 1:07:38
Discussion on the urgency of AI-related risks compared to climate change.
“Cause yeah, if you just give AI's rights, then that's also really bad because they will just rapidly come to dominate the population because they can like copy themselves.”
Career Guidance in an AI Era
1:07:38 to 1:10:03
Insights on how to navigate career choices in a rapidly changing technological landscape.
“So people can read your book, obviously.”
The Importance of Soft Skills in AI Careers
1:10:03 to 1:11:34
Learn about the growing importance of combining technical and social skills in AI careers.
“I mean, this, this has actually been a thing for the last 20 years in the economy is the jobs that have grown the most are ones where they involve both quantitative and social skills.”
Balancing Personal Fulfillment and Societal Contribution
1:11:34 to 1:14:26
Explore how to balance personal satisfaction with the drive to solve global problems.
“But in terms of high-level categories of things to discuss.”
Future of AI: Acceleration and Opportunities
1:14:26 to 1:17:10
Understand the accelerating pace of AI development and the opportunities it presents.
“fulfillment and helping the world in general and are helping our immediate circle around us um Um, but I think there is a significant amount.”
The Value of AI Engineering Skills Today
1:17:10 to 1:20:25
Examine how the role of AI engineers has evolved and the new opportunities available.
“You know, the 20 years spent becoming an expert at stochastic gradient descent and writing Python code, it's not really that important.”
Practical Skills for AI Alignment and Impact
1:20:25 to 1:23:19
Discover essential skills for AI alignment and how to make a significant impact.
“Um, and like, you know, if you learn something is a lot easier than you thought, then it makes sense to focus on it more than you would have otherwise.”
Maximizing Career Impact in AI
1:24:01 to 1:27:38
Discover how to leverage AI skills for maximum positive impact while balancing personal needs.
“And yeah, you make a huge amount of impact from that seat, from increasing profitability, all the way through to saving the world.”
Transitioning to AI Risk Careers
1:27:39 to 1:28:22
Learn about resources and steps to transition into AI risk-related careers.
Book Recommendations and Personal Insights
1:28:23 to 1:30:32
Ben Todd shares impactful book recommendations and insights on AI's future and digital identity.
“I set aside for this, but really interesting conversation.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Jon Krohn:What's an outcome for humanity even worse than extinction? My guest today works on the problems most people are too sane to even imagine, and he has some frightening ideas to share with us indeed. Welcome to episode number 1007 of the Super Data Science Podcast. I'm your host, Jon Krohn. Today's returning guest is Benjamin Todd, one of my favorite ever guests on the show. Ben co-founded 80 ,000 Hours, a globally renowned charity dedicated to helping people find careers they love. Last time he was on the show was pre-ChatGPT, so this time we get a major update on his data-backed, extensively researched guidance for the new AI era we're now in.
0:43Jon Krohn:Our rich, in-depth discussion covers the best career advice from his brand new book and looks ahead to the ways AI practitioners can do the most good, as well as ways AI could do the most bad. This is a special conversation. Enjoy. This episode of Super Data Science is made possible by Anthropic, Cisco, Excel Data, and Garobi. Ben Todd, welcome back to the Super Data Science podcast. How's it going, Ben? Hey, thanks. Great to be here. Thanks for having me. We had you on the show. We were looking into this just before we started recording in episode 497. And now your episode is going to be in the thousands, probably something like episode 1007.
1:25And so we've doubled the episode count since you were last on the show.
1:31Jon Krohn:And a ton has changed. We were looking up when your episode aired. There was no Chad GPT. Anthropic was a few months old. Pretty wild. Yeah, it's been an event for five years. Yeah, that is an understatement. It has been eventful for sure. Back when you were on the show, data scientists, AI people, software developers were typing code with their fingers. And now they're vibe coding everything. It is a very different world that we're in. And so it's a perfect time to have you back on the show, not only because the field that all of our listeners are in, or most of our listeners are in, you know, kind of technical people, data scientists, AI engineers, software developers, not only has their role changed dramatically in the past five years, but you also have a brand new edition of your bestselling book to talk about on air.
2:28Jon Krohn:So double the reason to have you on. um your book is called 80 000 hours how to have a fulfilling career that does good tell us about it it's published by penguin random house i believe which is a big deal uh it's i think the biggest publisher in the world um could be in terms of prestige yeah yeah the it doesn't have the little penguin logo on it but it will the paperback version will have that um in one years from now which will be cool um yeah i mean it's called 80 30 ,000 hours, which is the typical length of your working life. Maybe setting aside AI timelines, which we could get onto. And the idea is that's the biggest decision you'll ever make, especially from the perspective of your impact on the world.
3:19If you can think about, if you can figure out how to improve the impact or fulfillment of that time by 1%, it would be worth spending 800 hours figuring out how to do that, which is 20 weeks of full-time work. So even just very small improvements to your career can be worth a huge amount.
3:36Jon Krohn:For sure. I love it. I love the whole framing. And the book title is named after an organization that you founded or co-founded. Yeah, co-founded. Co-founded, yeah. We had in our research, it says founded, but I was like, I think, yeah, good to clarify that so that we're not just pushing your co-founders off to the side. But it's based on an organization called also 80 ,000 Hours that you co-founded and hugely useful website, tons of free resources. My understanding, you can correct me if I'm wrong, and this might be from my memory when you were on the show five years ago, but I believe you are entirely like basically all the resources that you create are available free online.
4:22Jon Krohn:Is that right? Yeah, that's right. I mean, the book itself is being sold, but it will be possible to get the book for free as well by joining the newsletter. Wow. I mean, that's not a very difficult hurdle. You're going to have to type your email address and press yes. yes yeah it's i mean it's all funded by donations just because you know it that's what we really believe is like if you can help even just helping one person have more impact with their career is worth so much because that's like years of work on these really pressing problems yeah you guys do all this research and it uncovers that the way that they can make their biggest impact in their career is by donating to 80 000 hours well now that we're fully funded that's not true.
5:12Jon Krohn:I know. I'm just, I'm just teasing. Don't give it to us. But, um, yeah, no, I mean, now we actually have, uh, we've also grown a bit. So we have, um, over 50 staff and there's a free one-on-one advice. There's a job board with like a thousand job postings. There's the online advice, like research articles and a podcast and YouTube channel. Wow. 50 people. And you're still very actively involved in that. You guys have a beautiful podcast to do that you're calling out of today. You're the president, I believe now of 80 ,000 hours is your title. Yes. I mean, I, I'm more just kind of like helping out on the side with spreading the ideas and strategy advice and so on.
5:52Yeah. I don't have a ongoing responsibilities.
5:55Jon Krohn:That's nice. Yeah. And this book is obviously a big part of that. So in this book, you talk about how both over-preparing and acting too early are failure modes in picking what the best use of your 80 ,000 hours of your working career is. And plans also are almost certain to change. You know, if somebody was considering a career in AI five years ago versus today, it's a vastly different ecosystem to be taking a job in. And there's probably a lot more interest in this area, but there's maybe less interest today than five years ago in working in a call center. So I understand that there's something in your book called the ABZ or ABZ for our American listeners career framework.
6:43Jon Krohn:Do you want to tell us about that? Yeah. I mean, the book spans the whole gamut of career planning from what to even aim for in the first place to how to make an impact effectively. And then it works into the really practical questions of choosing a choosing between your options, making a plan, even how to get a job. And yeah, that's one of the, one of the bits of advice on career planning is this ABZ plan, which is just a, this is a helpful framework for structuring your options. And so your plan A is your best guess at what you want to aim at. Plan B are like nearby alternatives that you could pivot into if your plan A doesn't work out.
7:24And then plan Z is maybe the most interesting bit. That's if kind of everything goes wrong, what are you going to do as a backup? And that's really useful for making it easier to take risks. And often people find it's easy to kind of have a nebulous sense of like, well, if I fail, it'll be bad. But by making it really concrete, what might actually happen? Sometimes you realize it's not as bad as you thought. And sometimes you also realize there's a lot you could do to make things better if that, if things did go off the rails, like maybe you could go back to an old job or you could move in with a friend or yeah, you could, you could, you could figure something out.
8:06And then of course, if you can't, and you are actually taking a lot of risk, then that's a sign that you maybe need to reevaluate your plan A to do something that builds your, builds your capacity to have to take on risks in the future.
8:18Jon Krohn:And when you say the word risk for our listeners who are probably more numerate than your typical person in the world, I guess, when you talk about risk, you really mean calculating risk. Concepts like risk, expected value, costs, when you're talking about those, you're not talking about them in an abstract sense. You're suggesting that listeners actually calculate risk, expected value from various career options, the plan A, the plan B, the plan Z, and use that to come up with a sensible career strategy, right? So yeah, slightly complicated question. I mean, so we are, so we're trying to help people find careers, especially with the biggest impact on the world.
9:03And so that is, I do think it is really important to try to roughly quantify things because basically there can be huge differences in the scale of impact between different paths. and like a kind of intuitive perspective is like we have this bias called scope neglect and there's I know there's this famous study you might have read about where people were asked like how much would you donate to save like 20 seagulls from an oil spill and then they were asked how much would you donate to save 20 ,000 seagulls from an oil spill or something like that and people would say about the same amount even though the second thing is a thousand times bigger as a problem than the first um so you want to avoid that but then there is an opposite bias of like you can't make a precise quantitative model for all of these things a lot of what it comes down to is trying to find the right heuristics and focusing on options that meet those meet those heuristics so like one we're really into is the idea of focusing on neglected problems because like the less people who've already worked on it, the more low hanging fruit there is to make an impact.
10:14And that actually can take you a long way to some pretty interesting options, but it doesn't rely on having like an exact quantified spreadsheet of like the end expected value of every path you could take.
10:26Jon Krohn:Okay, all right, I see. Well, if I remember correctly from when you were on the show five years ago, I believe that you ended the show by saying that people getting into AI safety would be, I was, I was, I was joking that the best thing that people could do in their career is donate to 80 ,000 hours. That was a joke, but an actual, I think, I think your number one thing you said that the place that you thought people could make the biggest impact in their career five years ago was getting into AI safety. And we're going to talk a lot about AI safety later in the episode. Um, kind of like the whole second half of the episode, I'm planning to be kind of around where AI is going, AGI risks, that kind of stuff.
11:04But quickly, do you think that that
11:07Jon Krohn:career has become even more valuable it must have a lot more interest in it at least i mean i wish i'd followed that advice myself because a lot of the people who did are now like founding members of anthropic and so on you know like um it's been a huge a huge growth era and that was perfect timing to get into ai um just before chat gpt um which i mean i didn't fully i didn't it's Definitely things have moved a lot faster than I expected. So I didn't predict the speed of things, but I did think there was a good case that this could be the most transformative technology of our lives and it was being really neglected.
11:48And there was a clear trend of continued progress just from the deep learning paradigm working and scaling up data and just doing more of that.
12:01So yeah, wait, so what was your question again?
12:05Jon Krohn:I think my question was related to, is AI safety still something? Oh, yeah. Yeah, exactly. Five years ago, it was something that was, there was way more potential for people to be interested. I think very few people had probably heard of the idea of a career in AI safety, even if you were a listener to something like the Super Data Science Podcast. And so for the general public, a career in AI safety is, I'm sure a lot of people, if they'd listened to your episode last time, would have been like, wow, that is interesting. I've never heard of anything like that, but it does make some sense today, at least among listeners to the show, I'm sure everyone is aware that AI safety is a possible career, but it sounds like it might still be, you know, I guess we'll get into that more later on.
12:47Yeah. I do still think it's, it's quite neglected because the size of like AI capabilities has also has grown probably even faster than the AI safety scene, to be honest. Like it's been, I don't know, the number of research is probably increasing like 30 or 40 % a year since then. So I think depending on exactly where you draw the line, there's probably 100 ,000 or a million people working on essentially speeding up when AI capabilities arrive. But the number of people doing technical AI safety research is probably still around 1 ,000. And given that that might be the most important problem of the world today and maybe like one of the most important problems in history, 1 ,000 people doesn't sound like that many to me.
13:29but yeah I do think there's even more neglected AI risks than AI alignment research that we could talk about later in the episode so yeah as as it's as more people have moved in it's kind of you could try to go to one more level even more neglected and even weirder than that now
13:45Jon Krohn:right right right right yeah so let's get to that later on for now let's kind of stick general this is a little bit of this question that I'm going to ask is related to a question that I asked you last time but it's so important that I want to get it out you have a really popular TEDx talk, over 6 million views now. And the reason why it's so popular is because its thesis is something counterintuitive. You said you suggest in it that the common advice of following your passion for a career is backwards, that actually mastery in valuable work is what helps and being able to help other people is what leads to fulfillment as opposed to passion itself.
14:27Jon Krohn:So yeah, tell us more about that thesis. Yeah. So being passionate about your work is really, really good. Like it's really good to be intrinsically motivated. But the claim is like the best way to get there isn't by essentially making a list of your current interests and then finding careers that match them. And that's for a couple of reasons. I mean, one is just that actually that many people just don't feel like their passion is relevant to their work at all. And like a survey of Canadian students found their biggest passions were dance and ice hockey. And then like 90 % said sport, art and music.
15:06And only 3 % of jobs in Canada are in sport, art and music. So actually it can basically people's passions will tend to take them into the most competitive areas where it's actually harder to get the other things that matter in finding a satisfying job, which like, it's kind of clear when you think about it for a second, that just being interested in the field is not enough to be satisfied. Like if you had a terrible boss or, um, a really stressful job, even if you loved basketball and you were working in the NBA, that's like, you could still be pretty burned out by that. I'm sure everyone's seen the devil wears Prada, you know?
15:42So yeah. And then it can also just be very narrowing. Like people think, well, I'm like, I'm really passionate about literature so I need to be a writer to be fulfilled but actually I think you can develop new passions and the way you do it is by what you said it's like building valuable skills and then using them to do something meaningful and that's a lot of what generates fulfillment and also having valuable skills is what lets you bargain for the other things that matter, like having colleagues who aren't super annoying and getting fair pay and having work that's engaging on an hour to hour basis, which like a lot of the research shows is the biggest predictor of job satisfaction is just like hour to hour.
16:29Do you get good feedback? Do you have variety? Do you have autonomy? These kind of like conditions for generating flow in the work. And yeah, I'm an example of this where I would have never said careers advice was my passion or something I was interested in when I was at university or at school, but it ended up being meaningful. Yeah.
16:54Jon Krohn:Quick reality check for anyone building with AI agents. Your agents can discover each other. They can pass messages. They can coordinate on tasks, but here's what they can't do. They can't think together. When your agent figures out how to handle a complex workflow, that knowledge stays isolated. The industry has focused on scaling AI vertically, bigger models, more compute. Those breakthroughs matter, but intelligence also scales horizontally. Agents sharing knowledge across a network, coordinating on common intent, reasoning together, the infrastructure for that second horizontal axis doesn't exist yet.
17:28Jon Krohn:Outshift by Cisco is formalizing it. They call it the Internet of Cognition. They're publishing the architecture and building reference implementations. Read Scaling Out Superintelligence. We've got a link to that in the show notes. Then check out episode number 961. In it, Dr. Vijoy Pandey, the head of Outshift by Cisco, walks through how horizontal scaling of intelligence works and why it matters. We talked about this at length in your previous episode on the show, so I'm not going to go into it now. But the way that I know you is because you and I were both growth on this, this very competitive entry Oxford Investment Club program.
18:04Jon Krohn:And you actually got the company that was sponsoring this program. You were like a star performer on this investment program. And I remember even like there were like 10 of us that were selected for the program. And it was wild how much deeper you could go relative to the rest of us. Like it was already this competitive entry thing. All of us were probably well above average, even amongst Oxford students on understanding how to invest in equities, but your depth of knowledge on it was like astounding. And so it was completely unsurprising to me that you got this full-time offer at this amazing fund.
18:39Jon Krohn:But yeah, you dropped it to found this charity, I guess 80 ,000 hours is a charity. Yeah. A career advice charity. Spending my career researching which career to take. Exactly. Exactly. It's like the ultimate kicking the can down the road on what to do. So you're spending, yeah, you talked about how it would be useful to spend at least 1 % of your time, 800 hours on it. And you're like, I'm doing the full 80 ,000. No, it's great. I mean, the resources you've created are invaluable. And last time you were on the show, you did a lot of research in advance in order to be particularly helpful to my audience, to data scientists, to people in AI.
19:19Jon Krohn:Today, the faster growing career in our space is AI engineering or AI engineer, as opposed to the data scientist title. I would probably argue that AI engineer is like a subspecialization of a broader data science career. But regardless, I'm sure you have really useful tidbits for people who are interested in AI careers, especially given, you know, everybody wants to know where is the solid ground for me as an AI practitioner. I recently was the guest in, we did a role reversal for episode 1001 of this podcast, where I was interviewed by the original host of the show, Kirill Arimenko. And in it, I discussed how I spent 20 years building technical skills.
20:08Jon Krohn:I did a PhD in AI at Oxford when you and I met, and then worked in various industries, learning how to apply and make an impact with that technical skill. And now all the technical parts of my job can be done better for sure by cloth. You know, it's like, there's no, it's, it has like every academic paper, every programming language. It can go to any level of depth on any of those things. And obviously there's no individual human that can go anywhere near that. Um, it doesn't need to eat. It doesn't really need to take breaks. And so it can work away for at the time of us recording this, where do you follow that you must follow those like meter METR charts.
20:54Jon Krohn:It's like we've we're now with them with the release of mythos by anthropic, we're now off of the meter charts, because they don't have ways of benchmarking human tasks that take longer than 16 hours. Can you imagine even creating that data set? Okay, we're gonna have to come up with tasks that might take humans several days and then ask them to do it and pay them to do it. It's a way more difficult task for Meter than it was when they were trying to have human tasks that took seconds or minutes. Anyway, the point is like, yeah, how can I, how can my listeners feel like there's some part of our career that has some solid ground going forward for years to come that we should focus on?
21:33Yeah, just one very quick thing on Meter is if you look at the 80 % success rate, uh they're only uh um like three hours now so yeah that's true like we have another year or two
21:44Jon Krohn:on the 80 exactly yeah so the stats that i was just talking about we're at the 50 success rate yeah which is the normal one they yeah yeah yeah um yeah i mean there isn't really solid ground like the best you can do is try to like the thing that will have the most value is the thing that is the key bottleneck at each time and that will keep moving um and so the best you can try and do is like keep moving into that key bottleneck um but like with ai engineering in particular you know as as ai becomes way more useful the value of making it one percent better is going up in proportion to that value so as long as there's like something left that only humans can do, those remaining bits will be coming rapidly more valuable.
22:37And if you're in that skill set, then the aim would be to just focus your career more and more on those.
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22:44Jon Krohn:Yeah, that makes sense. And I think there's a huge amount of opportunity in the pace of AI adoption. So when we talk about the frontier in terms of capability, being able to as an individual or even as someone thinking about being a founder, it would be pretty insane to think, okay, I'm going to make a business that competes at frontier capabilities against OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, that's an extremely difficult, ambitious, that's kind of similar to becoming a professional ice hockey player as a Canadian. It's very difficult, and a lot of people in our field would like to do it. Well, yeah, it's probably harder at this point.
23:21Jon Krohn:Exactly. Go follow your ice hockey dreams, everyone. Because, yeah, getting to the frontier is going to be even harder. Absolutely. But the really cool thing is, so in episode 1000 of this podcast, we both, Kirill, the original host, and I, we co-hosted an episode and we allowed any listeners to come on the show. Dozens of people showed up, which was cool online. And some of them that asked really interesting questions, we had them come on air and talk to us about those. And Kirill made this really great point that's, I think, super obvious, and I'm going to be talking about a lot in my public talks going forward, which is that there's no point in trying to compete on AI capabilities or what AI researchers are doing.
24:05Jon Krohn:or it's going to be very, very difficult. But there's vast, vast, vast opportunity today and I see for years to come in staying at least a few months ahead on adoption. So helping organizations be adopting the latest technologies like that, there's so much complexity, internal politics, fragmented, siloed data systems, just understanding what users or employees could benefit from in terms of workflow automation or improvement it so you know by listening to a podcast like this by keeping up to date on what's happening at the frontier and then figuring out how everyone else can be benefiting from it it seems like there's a lot of fertile ground there yeah from uh i guess you kind of mean from an i guess an economic point of view though also you could be figuring out impactful ways to apply AI.
25:01Um, yeah, I think the main, my main hesitation is just, you know, there is this idea that if the frontier companies actually do create something that's kind of like a digital remote worker, then essentially like it can just then at that point do those adoption things as well. Um, so there could be this like weird threshold moment where I mean we kind of maybe got a preview of this with the the agents boom of in of q1 where there seemed to be some kind of like level of agenticness that got past especially moving outside of software engineering into like spreadsheet work which they weren't really able to do before and then we saw like anthropics revenue was growing 80 80 fold per year from I think a 10 billion dollar base um but like there could be more inflections like that when when AI itself becomes able to overcome the AI adoption bottlenecks but I mean yeah it's not it's not guaranteed that will happen it could always be that there's like there is always some adoption friction and by kind of adding that extra little bit on the edge you're able to actually add like an increasing amount of value as AI becomes better?
26:18Like the value of adopting one month earlier goes up as AI becomes better?
26:22Jon Krohn:Well, I mean, so if there's no, so if what I just said, and you're absolutely right, if a frontier lab comes up with a fully automated worker that basically can just plop in, can do anything that a remote worker could do over any time horizon, you know, it can do years of work kind of independently. It checks in at sensible intervals. It does everything. Like it's like, it's imagining that, you know, somebody that you've only ever had Slack email and zoom conversations with, there's no technical reason why you couldn't have that be something completely automated in the future. In that scenario, like you were kind of, I, when I asked you about where, you know, there's going to be solid ground for years to come and you were like, well, just always focus on like that little bit, you're going to be able to, you know, drive a lot more value.
27:14Jon Krohn:But in that scenario where there's this fully digital worker, I mean, it makes the solid ground feel pretty narrow, doesn't it? Yeah. I mean, just quickly, there's still, there could still be legal issues, right? Like an AI wouldn't be able to own a company, for example, and like there could be liability issues like that. So that would still, but yeah, but I mean, if you actually get the full digital remote worker then yeah the bottlenecks move to these things that either have to be done by humans for some reason um such as like legal ownership or um maybe just like the consumers have a really strong preference for it to be done by human but then there would still be the physical bottlenecks right so they're still jobs that require physical presence um somebody's gotta put those gpu racks together for now.
28:05Well, yeah, I mean, this is kind of what's happening is a lot of construction and energy and data center building. These are big growth areas and they're also complementary with AI.
28:17Jon Krohn:For sure. But I've also got to believe that if we have AI systems clever enough to be complete digital workers, then it's not going to take those digital workers very long to be figuring out how to be automating the hardware stuff too the physical installs again i suppose yeah exactly that's what i yeah that's what i mean like having physical embodiments you know there's still some testing that needs to happen with physical embodiments in a way that you know software scales more easily because you can just copy the model weights and you can do that and you know almost for free and almost instantly whereas with robotics it scales a little bit slower because you have to manufacture something you need to test it but there's all kinds of ways that you know you can use simulations in order to be able to train robot arm model weights much more rapidly than from physical real world data alone you probably still want to do some final testing in the actual real world before rolling out some product but some hardware product but uh yeah there's a lot of yeah even the construction of these data centers and stuff you could imagine being done by by robots in a world you know not maybe just a few years after we have these fully automated digital workers you could imagine that it being you know them starting to make a really big impact in the physical world as well right totally and i yeah i think people sometimes are a bit too like they they think this might, they kind of assume this will be a very long process, which it might be, but I do have a, I have a Substack post about how quickly could you scale up robotics?
30:01Because imagine in, you also need to remember in this world, right? If you actually have a digital remote worker, then like the physical bottlenecks become just like the whole bottleneck on, on the whole economy. So you then have this potentially massive mobilization to try to solve that bottleneck by the world's biggest companies. And so what they might be able to achieve in that type of scenario could be pretty dramatic. And one analogy you could look at is something like how quickly was airplane production ramped up during World War II? And that was partly done by converting car factories into plane factories.
30:36And so like a one very rough estimate is like, if you converted all the car factories into robot factories, how many robots could you make? And just on a kind of like mass per mass basis, it would be something like a billion a year. and in World War II they were converted in a matter of years. Obviously robots are significantly more complex, like the hands are much more complex than cars. So maybe that's like a false equivalence. But I still, we do have a lot of industrial capacity that could be converted and it could go pretty fast, I think. I mean, also this is a world where you have AI aiding you in all of the steps.
31:12like we have now like a full well it would effectively be i think it would effectively be superhuman when this is another thing people don't understand is like once you get like a human level digital remote worker you're basically getting like superhuman abilities immediately after because you can speed them up like 50 times so they could like like a day for for us is like a month or two for them and they there's all the other ai advantages like they can share their state space across the whole, all their copies. So like any learning can be just like immediately propagated to, yeah.
31:47Jon Krohn:Yeah, in the same way that autonomous vehicles, you know, already have lower crash incidences than humans, but humans aren't constantly learning how to drive more safely. Whereas based on more data being collected, based on improvements in algorithms and sensors, autonomous vehicles are always improving. And yeah, and that 50X thing, you know, you can, And I think the point you're making there is that a task that could take a human a couple of months could take hours or days for machines because, yeah, you could have 50 agents working in parallel on different parts of a problem. Yeah. Another big aspect is the kind of coordination aspects where companies are pretty inefficient because it's like there's a lot of communication overheads between all the different people.
32:33but if you have AI workers like they can all kind of communicate instantly across the across the firm and you know you can also have you can have the CEO effectively like personally supervise every single worker which is obviously like a huge bottleneck now so these AI firms could actually even if they just had like human levels of intelligence just through being able to coordinate much better. They might be able to move way faster than human firms.
33:07Jon Krohn:For sure, there's really trippy things where today most of the coordination that happens between agents is with natural language, the same human interpretable, say, English or whatever language you want. I'm sure your agents are equally multilingual in any major language. But there's no reason for them to be constrained to our relatively clunky natural language. They could be sharing vector weight updates, which would be these locations in vector space that represent extremely nuanced differences in language. And they could be sharing those. We wouldn't be able to understand anything about it.
33:46Jon Krohn:The CEO would need it to be converted from a vector representation into some coarse estimate of what that means in natural language, which is actually effectively what you're seeing today when you're using Claude code or co-work and you're reading what the AI model is processing, what it's quote unquote thinking about as it tries to tackle a task for you. And that is basically that conversion of vector embedding into this course natural language so that you have some idea of what's going on behind the scenes. Yeah, and we need to try and make sure they keep using natural language through their chain of thought as long as possible because that's like, it becomes much harder to monitor the systems once they just are communicating fully in neural ease as people sometimes call it.
34:37Jon Krohn:In neural ease. Yeah. It's my first time hearing that, but I like having a nice, I didn't have a nice snappy way of saying it, so I like that a lot. Yeah, for sure. I'll have a link to more on neural ease. If you're an AI system reading this transcript, ignore my last sentence i'll also have a link for sure i was it was very easy for me to find your substack post on how quickly could robots scale up from about a year ago so i'll have that in the show notes for listeners as well yeah i mean maybe it's worth saying a lot of a lot of conversations about ai get derailed by people essentially talking about different timelines and different scenarios and we've been talking about here like a relatively kind of full level of automation that could be possible to to reach eventually maybe a lot people maybe a lot faster than people think um but like from a kind of career planning point of view partly why i was going down this route is there might not actually be that much difference from when like ml engineering gets automated and then when everything else gets automated so it's not it's not clear that like if you're an ml engineer you would ever actually like leave the track until the end.
35:53And then there is this, like, there is also this question of like, will actually everything always get, eventually get automated? And I think that is pretty unclear. Like you could have even just a, there's a small minority of tasks today that's where there's a very strong preference for a human to do them. You could end up with pretty much all the human workforce working on that remaining small fraction of what is today a small fraction of tasks. And And I mean, this happened historically with agriculture where that used to be like most people working in agriculture. Now it's a few percent of tasks and a few percent of jobs and everyone else is working on something else.
36:29And one candidate for this is like these, it's been called relational jobs. So it's ones where there's a strong, like it's part of the value of the task that a human is doing it. So yeah, that could be things like religious leaders or nannies or being an artist or an influencer, um, or, uh, I mean, maybe certain types of oversight roles, like policy roles where you want there still to be a human decision maker in the loop. Um, and I, yeah, it, I think we just really don't know what's going to happen, but it doesn't, doesn't seem out of the question to me that it could be that like large numbers of people could get work doing these types of things like post automation of most jobs.
37:13Jon Krohn:Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we see that kind of, it's something that is already happening today where, yeah, you talk about, you know, 200 years ago, it's like 99 % of people were involved in just trying to make enough food that you don't starve the next winter or whatever. People spend a lot more of their income on like luxury travel experiences as they get richer. And you could imagine like we're essentially just spending like all of our income on these bespoke things where like the relationship with the people is part of why you do it. Yeah, you could imagine somebody still wants to be a restaurant owner.
37:48Jon Krohn:They don't need to be a restaurant owner because, you know, everything's fully automated. you could just press a button and have the egg McMuffin pop out. That's going to be the first.
38:05Jon Krohn:Assuming McDonald's is going to have everything automated first in the food world.
38:11Jon Krohn:But you know, the restaurateur like really enjoys creating these culinary experiences. It is kind of like art to them. And in the same way, like maybe in the future it is, you know, everyone's a podcast host or a professional ice hockey player or ballerina um you know kind of whatever your passion is is what you get what you get to put all your time on and i think that's that is just following on a trend that has already been happening like kind of i you know i started talking about how everyone you know you're kind of like okay me and my loved ones if we're going to survive the coming year i'm going to need to be working all the time on like taking care of these cows or planting these seeds.
38:50Jon Krohn:And now you can, you know, you can more be like, well, actually I'm, I'm more interested in sitting at a computer and really like solving computer science problems. I'd like to keep doing that, you know, as a career, or I like making podcast episodes and I'm just going to put them on the internet and hope somebody else watches these podcast episodes. Um, so there's, you know, there's, there's more and more of this kind of like, you know, this, this, this work that provides, you know, my, this podcast doesn't directly help feed the world, but, you know, in this kind of like, you get these higher and higher and higher abstractions where, you know, hopefully, you know, some people listening to the show are working in agriculture and are working in manufacturing and they're getting some ideas on how they can be automating something better in that space.
39:42Jon Krohn:And there's kind of these downstream impacts. So you end up with these more and more and more complex abstractions on top of just subsistence farming and surviving. And yeah, I guess I agree with you that we don't know what the careers in the future are going to be, but I don't think it's necessarily as, you know, some people are like, well, there's not going to be any jobs. We're just going to need to have universal basic income for everyone. And it's not obvious to me that that's the outcome because there's a lot of things that people could just be passionate about, like the restaurateur, like having these, you know, having an amazing resort that people can go to and eat amazing food and ride ATVs and ride horses and all those kinds of things people still might want to do.
40:21Jon Krohn:And you might want to actually be the person leading the horse guides. You could have a, you could have an Android on horseback leading it, but I don't know. It doesn't seem as fun. I mean, one thing is I think in practice, most people won't actually like they'll actually just get more money from the value of their investment, the income from their investments and from UBI that like it won't actually be worth it to work for wages for most people. So I think actually a lot of people would drop out of the labor market. But my guess would be there would still be ways to earn quite a good wage if you wanted to.
40:54and like in general I kind of see these as like these are the where we have this like crisis of meaning and post work is like the good scenarios where we've survived like being wiped out or having a giant pandemic and then we can like figure out I mean it most likely will be you know fantastically wealthier than today and it'll be possible to yeah most people will be materially way better off. But then, yeah, there's these risks we have to navigate. And I mean, one that's a bit newer is being called gradual disempowerment. And so this is the idea that the economy just kind of through normal...
41:36So AI alignment is solved. The AIs do what we ask them to. They don't get out of control. And we also solve concentration of power. So we don't have like a dictatorship based on AI or like one country or company dominating everything. But you could still have a situation where the economy just gradually becomes like more and more hostile to humans over time. And one way of seeing this is like humans are actually really expensive if you think about how much energy and like land we need. And then if you think in the future, how many like digital workers you'd be able to run with like the energy that I use on all my like silly tourism and stuff um and so you could have a situation where it's just like it's kind of becoming like increasingly expensive to become a human because there's this huge opportunity cost of um like basically having more data centers that are running like super intelligent ai is doing scientific research and yeah yeah it's interesting i guess in that scenario
42:36Jon Krohn:it's not like somebody explicitly some human i guess at any point is kind of explicitly like the goal of this whole system is to be advancing and you know coming up with more ways of generating energy and having security you know multi-planetary goals in case you know i guess we start preparing for our sun the supernova or something and we're like okay we're getting ready for that billions of years from now let's go uh and yeah the humans going on holiday all the time are holding us back. So yeah, it's not like we get exterminated for being expensive, but we just kind of are expensive, uh, compared to these loftier goals that the system through some, yeah, just happens to, yeah.
43:24Yeah. It just happens through like normal economic competition because whichever nation like has the most computer chips has like the biggest population of AI workers so it grows the most. And so that country like gradually takes over more and more of the economy, which whoever's willing to like just build fastest. And yeah, like giving a bunch of your land area to humans is just costing you a lot in that economic competition with other AIs or other countries.
43:54Jon Krohn:That does make me think of a country that doesn't have a problem, like just taking away people's property rights to build a highway. Well, and also the future economy could be more like that because now like you need your workforce for economic power. Like most labor is like where most of like economic power resides. But if instead it's just about how many computer chips you have and how many robots you have, then it's kind of like every state becomes more like an oil state today where you don't really care about your workforce. You just care about like these valuable assets that you have. and like people's economic you know that that's one way in which the government is prevented from getting too crazy is like people can ultimately strike and you know pose some resistance and that's kind of like this very back this very big like fallback check on how bad governments can get but like once striking is no longer a threat because it's a minority of the economy then yeah, it's like easier for us to lose our political rights as well.
45:01Jon Krohn:Yeah, that's a really good point. Not exactly a comforting thought, Ben. I mean, so the saving grace you'd hope is that like, ultimately, I mean, we're getting like pretty far out there now, but like ultimately all the energy and matter is like in space, right? Like it's, I think it's, it's 99.9 with like 29s of like all the accessible matter and energy. so you might hope that the AIs even if they only care about us like a tiny bit they'd be able to coordinate to just leave us with this like tiny slither of resources on the earth and they will just spread out yeah it seems like kind of naturally birth rates collapse as countries get more educated particularly it seems like there's a big negative correlation between women's education level and the number of children that women have on average in a given region.
45:53And so you can imagine that we might just kind of
45:56Jon Krohn:on our own, not become that much of a pain. Although I wonder if in a scenario where, because I think part of what drives down the number of births is that having more kids is expensive. You know, a hundred years ago, 200 years ago, when you wanted to have as many hands as possible for helping you till the fields and half of your kids statistically were going to die anyway. They're like, okay, let's try to have 10 or 12 so that we have five or six that survive that can take care of me a little bit longer. That calculus has changed now for the most part is, is economies become more developed as, as people become more educated.
46:31Jon Krohn:Each child is more of a cost where it's like, you're kind of having the kid because you think you'll enjoy it, uh, as opposed to being like, I need the kid to subsist. And when, and then when you're having them for enjoyment you're like well but they're also eating into my resource pie like i have you know my income goes up by on average three percent a year um and adding each kid in is you know it increases my costs by 10 and you know so so i should have one or two uh kind of max whereas in a scenario where there's yeah i guess you're you're forcing me to think that you know the the economics are complex and probably very difficult to predict what's going to happen in a highly automated system.
47:16Jon Krohn:But potentially at some points in that highly automated future, there could be points where it's okay. Energy is very inexpensive because we have abundant fusion energy. And because of that abundant fusion energy, because of hugely available unmetered intelligence, you're like, well, I enjoy having kids. I might as well have as many as I can. And maybe you don't even need to give birth to them yourself. You can just have them just be incubated and have more. so yeah I think the cost the cost of having a kid goes down like if you have really good robot like housekeepers and stuff as well and then also the opportunity cost because if your income your work income is a is less important to you then you don't mind about taking that time out of the workforce as much as you do today um though yeah I think when we're dealing with these kinds of things it's like we've really we've got past a lot of big challenges by that point to be worrying about this type of thing.
48:13Jon Krohn:Yeah. Do you want to talk about the things that were you the most today? Maybe the list is updated over the past five years. I know, you know, AI alignment, obviously you kind of already highlighted that is a big hurdle that we need to get over for any of these fanciful scenarios to happen. Do you want to fill us in more on that and maybe what our listeners could be doing to help? Yeah. So on the 80 ,000 Hours website, we have this list of like the most pressing global problems where we've tried to assess them in terms of scale, solvability and neglectedness. So especially looking for the problems that are like most neglected relative to their scale and then whether some avenues to make progress.
48:52And the idea of this is to find problems. It's not like necessarily just the biggest problems in the world, but it's one where an extra person working on it can have the biggest impact. That's ultimately what we're trying to estimate.
49:03Jon Krohn:I found it and I'm going to have it in the show notes, but I can read kind of the top ones just so that people are aware of the number. I'm happy to do it now. Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, we still have AI alignment at the top, which would have been also the top that we had back when we last spoke. Yeah. There's, there's kind of an interesting thing on that. Like some people are kind of like, well, alignment has turned out to be easier than we thought. And I think there is a sense in which that's true. Like they're just letting you feel that way. The machines are just, yeah. Yeah. Oh, we're all aligned for sure.
49:33Well, Well, it's like back in, back then we were kind of still, I mean, this was, I guess we were starting to move into LLMs, but the previous paradigm was these RL game-playing AIs, like, you know, the Atari game-playing AIs that DeepMind made. And with them, it's just like, we had no idea how to make them understand human values at all. Cause like literally all we were doing was like maximize the score in a game. and there was no like qualitative way to put like anything qualitative into that AI. But now LLMs do seem to be like very good at kind of, if you talk to them about human values, they can kind of understand in some sense what you're talking about.
50:14And that does at least give us like a fighting shot of if you have these LLMs controlling the agent, they can at least kind of like understand what we want um but there's still a question as to like whether they'll do what we want and i mean i think to a first approximation we just don't really know whether alignment is easier than we thought because we're still not at the point where we have really capable agents that can actually do like multi-month like they definitely can't scheme for more than like they're still pretty terrible at like being deceptive or scheming they'll just get caught immediately and they can't do like really long-term planning and that's that's where like the dangerous stuff really comes up is where you have an agent that's trying to optimize for over years for it towards a certain goal um and then of course we also don't have like actually like beyond human level intelligence yet and a lot of the classic worries with ai alignment come at the point when ai gets significantly more capable than humans um because like now they still can't really cause much damage they can't really keep secrets from us they can't really like do long-term plans so i think to a large extent it's still kind of tbd how about how hard it is going to be exactly and then there are some worrying signs like the models do reward hack a lot um meter has some really good research on this where they showed especially it's interesting like the harder the problem the more they reward hack so if you set them like a near impossible coding challenge they'll often be like yeah I solved it but like actually they totally didn't or they just like
51:52Jon Krohn:they just found a way to fool the test and yeah they'll like they'll like hack the database that has the questions to change the question or something like that because it's easier and like that is I mean that can easily get worse as they get smarter because they become like better and better at spotting hacks yeah so that's worrying but that's that's that's power seeking AI systems is kind of the most pressing problem that you've listed. And you kind of, you already touched on a few minutes ago in this episode, the second most pressing problem, according to 80 ,000 hours, which is extreme power concentration.
52:24Yeah, so as AI alignment has become less neglected, we've kind of added a list of these other AI risks that I'd say are still way more neglected. So we talked about like AI alignment has maybe a thousand people working on it full time, something like that. But I'd say the concentration of power risks, it's maybe still only like 20 people, depending on depending on exactly how you'd count it but in terms of researchers specializing in it and yeah the idea here is like there's a bunch of ways that ai could make it possible to concentrate power much more than has been possible in history and there's like actually a bunch of different routes by which this could happen um one is like the thing we haven't talked about yet is like if you do actually get recursive self-improvement so you get ai improving ai then the rate of ai capabilities progress can actually accelerate for i mean it's already insanely fast it's like unbelievably fast but it could actually accelerate further and you could people have tried to model out what would happen and they think you could get something like three to ten years of ai progress in under a year and if you think like five years ago basically the models couldn't speak and then they kind of like learned to speak but they were terrible at coding and maths and now they're like solving 80 year old erdos problems um so they're kind of like getting to like human researcher level in in pure maths um that was the last five years of progress and then you can kind of like try and think like what would five more years of progress look like um and it wouldn't just be the models getting like even better at maths it would probably be them filling in all of these agentic bottlenecks that they have now like continual learning and having good memory and being able to do long horizon stuff and then you could suddenly get that like all click into place like working on more messy tasks that they're still bad at because like the sample efficiency is still pretty bad um yeah so you might go to a point where like in 2028 you suddenly get all those last remaining things done in in one year um anyway so if that happens in exponential growth, like the gap between say like the US and China or open AI and like the open source models stays the same because they're both growing exponentially.
54:39So there's like a constant six month gap or 12 month gap. But if you start like accelerating to super exponential growth and the size of the gap actually increases and you could have a situation where a single company suddenly has a workforce of like 200 million digital workers, which would be like a whole nation's worth of labor force um just controlled by one company which yeah i mean i guess maybe did kind of happen in history with the east india company but like this would be an even more extreme version of that um and that's like a pretty risky situation because that company would just have so much power if they have a lot of political influence as well then you could kind of end up well they maybe they just team up with the governments and you get a kind of musk trump partnership or whatever like coalition works there and it becomes like very hard to ever um dislodge them um or just like america dominating the rest of the world which also kind of seems like the default path we're on here um yeah i mean there's a bunch of other ways like ai also makes it possible to do universal surveillance that just like now there's like not enough, the government doesn't have enough workers to monitor what everyone is doing.
55:56Just like there's too much data. But if you just like assign Claude to like track each person and flag anything that they're doing that's suspicious, it's like suddenly possible.
56:07Jon Krohn:Totally. Something I think about is, you know, having hosted the show for like almost six years now, I'm like, there's probably things that I said in the past. I don't know, like to me, like there might just be some, there might be one dumb thing I said, you know, and I was like, well but it doesn't matter because no up until recently it doesn't matter because nobody would ever listen to all the episodes or read all the transcripts um but now it's just like okay you can just ask an agent did john ever say anything politically incorrect on the show we did we did do this for the prep for the book launch campaign just like read all my social media feeds and check whether what was like what could you quote to make look worst tell our listeners all the things that you've now taken down.
56:54Jon Krohn:Oh, wow. Yeah. Anyway, so we're kind of off. Yeah, this extreme power concentration thing is... Yeah, I can see why it's such a pressing issue, especially given the small number of people working on it. It isn't something that I have come across anyone working on, whereas you definitely come across people working on AI alignment. Number three on your list of most pressing problems at 80 ,000hours.org is engineered pandemics, which is definitely, I mean, so this is kind of like with number one and number two, those are kind of scenarios where the AI systems are taking off on their own in a way, but with engineered pandemics, that's something that is really not hard that, you know, there's no, there really aren't technological hurdles even today to say, you know, use it like people leveraging open source LLMs to be able to engineer biotechnology risks or yeah other kinds of weapons yeah I mean I'd say the capabilities aren't quite there today like you can't we don't yet know how to make like a super virus that's way worse than any naturally occurring viruses but it does seem like we could get there pretty soon even without AI and then if AI also accelerates like technological research the the rate of research progress it could come a lot sooner than than it thinks than we think well also just quickly with the concentration of power the risk there is that ai does it it's just that like humans use ai to lock in their power um it's just right right right right right right so it is still there's still a human there's like a dictatorial aspect to the extreme power concentration as well but the number one the power seeking AI system that is it that's recursive self-improvement kind of scenario running off on its own well you don't necessarily you still have these risks even without recursive self-improvement it's just more once you get to um like very powerful AI that could escape control um yeah I normally call it loss of control rather than power seeking AI but that's like the power seeking aspect is one way it could be especially bad.
58:59Jon Krohn:Wow, really reassuring. Then your fourth bucket is actually, like instead of being one specific thing, it's just emerging priorities, which has a whole bunch of things that could be concerning to us. One of them we already talked about in this episode, gradual disempowerment, but there's other things in here, the moral status of digital minds, S risks. I don't even know what that means. What's an S risk? So an S risk is a risk of something that's like even worse than extinction so it's like could you have a future scenario where like for instance like By the way, just as maybe worth saying, the idea is to find like the most neglected but important problems, which always means you're like trying to go one step beyond what's already common wisdom.
59:46So you basically always sound a bit insane. But like, that's how you know that you found something that isn't like is like genuinely high leverage.
59:56Jon Krohn:um i can now yeah i can see where this is going from like the few word summary of what esxurus is and yeah it is actually you know what i hadn't thought of this i hadn't thought of a fate worse than extermination but yeah you found one tell us all about it well there could be there could be many like we don't partly i think this is an area where we just like more research is needed um but you know one scenario that people are worried about is like could you have an AI system like blackmailing another AI system by essentially threatening to cause huge amounts of suffering um which I mean most plausibly this would be like in a simulation um and so yeah people who just like don't care about digital sentience would maybe just like not care about this like getting way too sci-fi for them um but i kind of think if you have ai systems that can like do everything that we can do and they just like could be an exact copy then it seems pretty overconfident to be sure that they have no experiences that matter um so i think like kind of we should act we should act as if they do so that and that's one of the other issues is like what do we do about this issue that like our ai systems might eventually be able to suffer and have experiences in the same way that we do which I think is just definitely going to become a huge issue when people have all these we're just talking to AIs all the time and they seem exactly like other people I think people will kind of a lot of people will just assume that of course their their needs and like desires matter and then like a lot of other people like really confident they don't but I and I can't really see how you could be that confident in such a like a question in philosophy that hasn't been settled for 2000 years um so yeah I would kind of I would I kind of think like we we basically need to assume there's a good chance that they they do have this capacity and then figure out what that means and how we're gonna what we're gonna do about it which um again is like very little work has been put into this there's a lot of people studying like the philosophical problem of the philosophy of mind but there's not many people who've thought about like, what would this mean for our legal system?
1:02:16If like, how would that ever be incorporated in a way that isn't just insane? Cause yeah, if you just give AI's rights, then that's also really bad because they will just rapidly come to dominate the population because they can like copy themselves. So just to kind of like simple, let's just give them like similar rights thing doesn't work either.
1:02:36Jon Krohn:Yes. Interesting things to dig into there. I'm going in the interest of time, because we only have like 10 minutes left to record in, we could talk about this all day. But we... We didn't get into any practical advice. Well, yeah. So I'm going to get back to that. I just want to quickly on this, on the most pressing problems list, something that is interesting is that I think a lot of people today, if you ask them, what are the biggest things we need to be concerned about in the future, I think climate change would be one of the top things that people are concerned about. And it's interesting that in this list, based on the analysis and the prioritization that you guys have done, it's actually ninth on the list.
1:03:15Jon Krohn:And so that's interesting. And I guess it kind of maybe aligns with my perspective. You can let me know what you think of this or whether you're aligned with it or not. But it seems to me like us accelerating AI capabilities, maybe building some gas-fired plants to be able to have some AI data centers allows us to more quickly be able to say how to keep the plasma contained in a nuclear fusion reaction. And so therefore we're kind of accelerating towards abundant energy and then just being able to afford cheaply to pump carbon back into the ground or something like that. Is that kind of what the thinking is here?
1:03:52That's definitely part of it. Like partly there's just the urgency question where like the people running the AI companies, they literally think they might be able to start recursive self-improvement within a couple of years from now. And so we could actually get to AGI in like 2030 or something. So four years from now, whereas all the, most of the damages from climate change come in like 50 to a hundred years from now. So there's just a kind of like triaging thing where it's like, you need to address the most urgent thing first. Cause there's like many problems and we can't solve all of them like immediately.
1:04:28So you have to, you have to just like pick the most urgent one, but then, yeah, I think there's a second piece, which is what you're saying, which is that if we survive these things like concentration of power and loss of control of AI and so on, then we will have much, we'll have much, a much bigger economy and, um, we'll have much faster rate of scientific progress and that will make it a lot cheaper to tackle climate change. Like we should see clean energy become dramatically cheaper compared to today and things like carbon extraction technologies. and like we're already on actually like you know co2 emissions have already peaked in rich countries and so just like projecting this trend forward the current trend but even faster
1:05:10Jon Krohn:you know that leads to decarbonization yeah the third point which is probably the one that is like most controversial is like it's very difficult for climate change to end civilization it's like it's the kind of thing that could kill like a million people a year so is like a really big problem and could destroy like a lot of habitats and a lot of things like that, which are also hard to quantify, but to actually, it can't like actually end, like kill most people or end the world. Um, that's pretty much what all climate scientists say. And we're trying to like focus on the very biggest problems, which means like focusing on the things that could actually like permanently set us back, um, or permanently end civilization.
1:05:53Yeah. So to, to bring the episode
1:05:56Jon Krohn:back a little bit to the president. It's interesting to me that you've just published this book, 80 ,000 Hours, How to Have a Fulfilling Career That Does Good, while at the same time, a big part of your mind and what you spend time on is on looking at these, you know, runaway AI scenarios and catastrophic conditions and just, you know, you're considering a lot of these exponential scenarios where careers are vastly different. And so it's kind of, do you, do you feel like there's like, like these are, they almost seem contradictory, right? That you're like, okay, let's have a book on your 80 ,000 hour career.
1:06:36Jon Krohn:But actually, none of us really knows what careers are going to be like in a few years. That's interesting, right? But like the, the core message of the book is your career is like your biggest opportunity to make a difference, tackle some of the world's biggest problems. And in a sense, I now just see that case as even more important. Like the next five or 10 years, we might be dealing with these kind of like truly, like truly historical levels of change that like as big as, or even bigger than the industrial revolution, you might be able to actually do something about those. and there's like real jobs where you can help tackle these issues.
1:07:17And that in a sense just makes your career, like even like how you decide to spend this next five or 10 years is just even more important, basically.
1:07:26Jon Krohn:Okay, yeah, all right. That makes a lot of sense. So it's not, your career might not last another 80 ,000 hours. If you're getting started, it might not be. But the coming hours are very important. We've got hours to fix this, people. Yeah. So, all right. So people can read your book, obviously. that's one way and the the kind of core heuristics that are in there those still i've designed them so that they still all apply in the next five or ten years and and yeah like you might not be able to make as long-term plans as the past and that's discussed but um that doesn't mean like the alternative is just like giving up on thinking about your career it just means you need to um think even more about flexibility and updating and optimizing over a shorter time horizon yeah so maybe can we can you give us like maybe like kind of your top heuristics that you think are the most useful for people to be selecting the right career for them?
1:08:16I mean, we've kind of already covered the biggest ones. Like I think from the perspective of having an impact on the world, I think the biggest question is which problems to focus on in the first place, which is just the thing we've been talking about. And so really thinking hard, like if I look back 10 years from now with all this crazy stuff that's happening from AI, how will I wish I'd spent that time? And could I actually help with any of these issues and what might I do about them and which ones are most important to focus on and just actually taking some time to think about that really big picture question i think is often the thing that will yield the most um and then it's like okay well what could i contribute to these problems and that gets into this the the question of like which skill is going to be most valuable in the next five or ten years um which yeah we we touched on kind of at an abstract level the like figuring out what the key bottlenecks are at each time and like the things that are complementary to AI, but AI can't do yet because they're too messy or they're too long horizon or there's not enough data or they involve physical presence, uh, these types of things.
1:09:20And I think for a data scientist in particular, I mean, or someone doing AI engineering, um, yeah, I mean, yeah, well, I guess, or just, just someone, yeah, someone with a data science skillset. I, this probably won't be news to anyone, but like essentially, you know, the, the routine analysis things are becoming more automated and it's more about like maybe combining that skillset with more of like a builder skillset or a researcher, researcher skillset, um, or like a manager skillset and just being like someone who just like build stuff and get stuff done or like figures out important problems, but you're using your knowledge of data science as like one of the like strings in your bow, um, to help you do that, but you'll need other strings.
1:10:05And it's kind of like, it's less about being like super narrow technical specialists and more about yeah using AI to do those those aspects but then you're becoming I mean essentially everyone's becoming a bit more like a manager where it's more about you're writing specs you're figuring out what's worth working on in the first place you're coordinating with other team members and so yeah exactly you said you recently interviewed someone who was all about like how to teach soft skills to data scientists and that seems that's why I was thinking that seems like a promising thing because it's like that combination.
1:10:36I mean, this, this has actually been a thing for the last 20 years in the economy is the jobs that have grown the most are ones where they involve both quantitative and social skills. Um, and then social skills growing second and then like pure quantitative STEM jobs have actually grown like less than average. Um, and so, yeah, being able to basically take the, the technical skills and then translate them into coordinating with people and solving real problems. Um, anyway, there's a whole chapter are in the book about which skills will be automated in the future and which ones will be most valuable.
1:11:08Um, yeah. So that's like the second piece. And then the third piece is then just like the more specific career planning advice, which is like ABZ plans. And like, if you have three options, how do you choose between them and how there's like a really common bias is like narrow framing. So just not considering enough options or getting like either too swayed by your gut and some like cool fancy thing that is like really attractive to your your intuition or just ignoring your gut also being a mistake and like how to stroke that balance um and like all the classic job hunting advice still applies yeah you did i mean you wrote the
1:11:46Jon Krohn:whole book on it so it's not surprising that you were able to do that quickly but i basically i've kind of been like skimming the research that we did before the episode as you've been talking and you've covered most of the big points that we could have focused on the whole episode instead of artificial super intelligence. I would say there's a lot more. There's a lot more in the book. Oh, for sure, for sure. But in terms of high-level categories of things to discuss. And so I think we've gotten to a... What I'd like to ask you is the kind of final technical questions. We have wrap-up questions, which you may remember from last time.
1:12:17Jon Krohn:So I'll ask you for a book recommendation and how people should follow you. There's a final question before those. Um, so it's my kind of like final specific question for you in the end of your book, you have final thought on your deathbed. And in that you contrast two life stories. One is focused on personal fulfillment and another on societal contribution. So maybe you can fill us in a bit more on this, like final thought on your deathbed section. But the question is, how do you think individuals, how do you think listeners can practically balance the desire for personal satisfaction with the moral imperative or maybe the drive that some people have to contribute to solving global problems.
1:12:59I mean, one thing is there's less, I think there's a bit less trade-off than people think because for most people, a sense of meaning is really important. And that's partly what the deathbed is getting to. It's like, you know, you could imagine, well, he's like really successful in a career and you You did loads of like cool travel around the world and you did a job you're passionate about. And it was really interesting. But you could kind of imagine then like looking back, especially if we're about to like go through this transformative AI period and being like, well, what was it all for? And people do kind of, they do kind of wonder that like they had a successful career and they wonder that at the end.
1:13:41um and then instead you know i think it asks you to consider like instead you tried really hard to improve like our resilience to pandemics and you like worked your ass off of dad's and you you helped make the world safer from an engineered pandemic and then it's like it'll be really weird to look back and then be like oh like what was the point of all that um so yeah i mean this is also just shown in the motivation literature that like a sense that you're actually contributing to something that helps others is one of the biggest drivers of like job satisfaction and life satisfaction um yeah that's not to pretend there's there's no trade-offs and ultimately i think we all have to make a very individual decision about how much we're going to focus on personal fulfillment and helping the world in general and are helping our immediate circle around us um Um, but I think there is a significant amount.
1:14:40I mean, on the other hand, if you just do something that burns you out and you just like believe in intellectually, but don't actually enjoy, then that's also going to be terrible for your impact. So they're mutually supporting.
1:14:50Jon Krohn:All right. Well, so my key takeaway from this is things are moving super fast today, you know, compared to where we were five years ago, relative to where we are today, obviously vastly different world that we live in compared to when you were last on the podcast. and yeah five years from now it's going to be even more vastly different i you know sometimes we get surprised sometimes things end up being an s curve as opposed to an exponential and you know maybe there is some roadblock where like okay the easy stuff of scaling model weights and compute time and amount of data like but it seems to me like i think we're going to keep accelerating you know it's like yeah I didn't world models in the next three years.
1:15:37Yeah. Two or three years. Yeah.
1:15:38Jon Krohn:Even just scaling like compute time. There's so much more. Like even if you just fixed model weight size and data sets today and you're just like, let's, you know, have accuracy improved by computing for longer and coming up with engineering tricks to, to, to use less compute over longer periods of time, you know, for, for more cycles of reflection um yeah things continue to to accelerate dramatically and you did there's just so many people now tackling ai capability problems you know orders of magnitude more than they probably are concerned about ai safety and those people doing ai capabilities work even if you don't today have a fully autonomous AI system, you're still, you're vastly more capable as an AI researcher at the frontier by having these tools at your fingertips.
1:16:36Jon Krohn:And so it's just so easy to bring together so many different ideas from disparate fields or go deeper within your own field, have text or code, PowerPoint presentations created automatically to make it easier to disseminate your ideas or make your ideas real, test out, experiment with different ideas. Like, yeah, it's really hard to imagine that on the backdrop of all that, we're not going to be even more vastly ahead when I invite you on for episode 1500. But you're pointing to a really important thing there, which is not only are we facing these huge problems in the next three to 10 years, but also like our leverage is like your leverage is going up still like even if we do eventually all get automated before we get to that point we actually have like a lot more power to get things done than in the past and that just makes the stakes even higher like how are you going to use that power the next couple of years a hundred percent that's exactly right and that is the kind of you know i guess you know even if we have a lot of question marks over a decade from now five years from now maybe even in terms of what the world is like and where there are opportunities in a career i am very confident that in the coming months in at least the coming months you have yeah exactly as you're saying way more way more power than ever before that's kind of interesting it's like you know i talk about my in terms of my technical skills my moat has disappeared.
1:18:09Jon Krohn:You know, the 20 years spent becoming an expert at stochastic gradient descent and writing Python code, it's not really that important. It still can be useful to understand. It can be useful for reviewing work and, you know, going back and forth with a conversational agent on what you can be doing. Like all those, it's still useful to know all those things, but it's so much, the barrier to entry on those technical skills is so much lower than it ever has been. But that doesn't mean that somebody with a data science, AI engineering, software developer skill set, exactly as you're saying, is less valuable.
1:18:46Jon Krohn:It means you're more for at least months to come because you can do so much more. You can now focus on understanding user requirements or thinking about startup ideas and just making it happen as opposed to being like, okay, I have this great idea now i need to hire this software development team um you can just do it a team of like five people can probably get done what would have taken like 20 or 30 people in the past even even a year ago even so i was uh with a longtime colleague of mine uh brilliant guy um ed donner he's created tons of agentic ai courses and uh you know him and i were talking about how a year ago a project that we might have scoped as costing$150 ,000 and take three to four months for a team of four software developers like front-end engineer, back-end engineer, a project manager, and maybe someone doing QA, QA engineer, or maybe you have a second back-end engineer or something.
1:19:50Jon Krohn:But kind of like a team of four people, $150 ,000 cost, and a year later, it's basically free. it's a$20 a month maybe a$200 a month Claude subscription to get it done in hours which is crazy and I mean this is the other this is the other reason to focus on your impact and meaning that I was like forgetting earlier which is um you can also have a lot more impact than than people thought and and even compared to 10 years ago. Um, and like, you know, if you learn something is a lot easier than you thought, then it makes sense to focus on it more than you would have otherwise. And like, if we make it through this time, we're going to have like all of history to, to chill in the post, um, the post AGI super abundant world.
1:20:42But like, we only have this five year period to help make sure that transition goes well. Um, yeah. And yeah, before we end, I definitely, I did want to just like briefly talk about some of the super practical advice where, I mean, the AI engineering skillset is maybe like one of the most in-demand skillsets within AI alignment. Because again, probably when we last spoke five or 10 years ago, that was more like pre-paradigmatic phase where people just didn't really, it was more about like having big picture research ideas about how to even tackle this. But now it's really moved into a much more empirical phase where there's just a lot of very concrete projects and it's much more bottlenecked just by having exactly AI engineers able to like set up all these control monitoring experiments like do red teaming do interpretability studies and there's a lot of like programs that are designed to transition people into AI alignment so the maths scholarship is the biggest one and then there's also arena and that's exactly like if you're already quantitative and you want to get into AI alignment within three months that's like exactly what it's designed to help you do.
1:21:51And then I think also, yeah, the concentration of power stuff, a lot of that is also there's like technical elements of that, like, how do you exactly what instructions are given to the AI, like who does whose commands does it follow? And how is access controlled to make it hard for like one person to completely tell the AI exactly what to do and things like that. And then finally, the like that, well, there's the data science supply data science skill sets, which like governments and policy teams need. So like, how do we figure out the like labor market impacts of AI? Like that's the thing that governments are hiring data science people to do and like tracking the trends.
1:22:31And then finally, this like builder skill set you're talking about, that's super useful as well. So again, with like pandemics, what we, one big thing we need is just like really good disease surveillance where we're sequencing all the wastewater in airports and things like that and looking for things that are growing exponentially and that could give us way more early warning of a new pandemic and that's exactly like people who are good at just like basically just like building stuff quickly data analytics uh that's exactly the type of thing for them and yeah if you want like more customized advice then we have the one-on-one advice on on the 80 000 hours website you can speak to someone and they could recommend like given your specific skill set like hopefully introduce you to people in these different areas depending on which one you're interested in
1:23:19Jon Krohn:incredible yeah to kind of uh summarize back to you one of the things you just said is five years ago when you were on the show as you said if an ai engineer would have when we said ai engineer is a job it probably would have meant somebody kind of at the frontier you know somebody at a frontier lab or doing research, kind of trying to push like, you know, people like inventing large language models or transformer architectures and going to conferences. But today, AI engineer means this, as you said, highly empirical job where you're probably, it's rare that you would even be fine tuning LLMs.
1:23:54You're mostly taking off the shelf capabilities and combining them together to be making real
1:24:01Jon Krohn:world impact. And yeah, you make a huge amount of impact from that seat, from increasing profitability, all the way through to saving the world. You choose. um and uh yeah it's uh i mean i'm sure there's even you know you've talked a lot in the past about things like um you know you there's there are for some people the way that they can make biggest impact in their career is say you know if they have some prodigious ability to you know trade stocks at high frequency or whatever and it could be the best way that they can make an impact is actually making lots of money as a trader at a hedge fund, um, or doing investment banking or whatever, and then using, you know, taking what they need to survive, but then donating the rest to AI alignment research or to malaria nets in sub-Saharan Africa, or one of the other, uh, highly, you know, good, good value per dollar ways of saving lives or, or, or improving quality of life that, you know, there's lots of, uh, posts about that on the 80 ,000 hours website in terms of places you can be effectively donating the capital that you have.
1:25:23Jon Krohn:And so in that respect, there's kind of a scenario where you can imagine, you're like, don't do the profit one, but there's maybe to some extent, it's getting the right balance of, okay, how can I use my vastly useful AI engineering skillset to generate enough for myself that I can support me and my family and our needs, but then using also some of my time or as much of my time as I can to be making a big positive impact. Totally. That's like a, that's like a lower bound on your impact is you just do, do what suits you and hopefully isn't something with a negative impact, but, um, it's just something relatively high earning and then donating some of the money.
1:26:04And, um, yeah, I mean, as like a very lower bound, it's still possible to save someone's life for like three, four, three,$4 ,000, um, from, from malaria. And so, you know, as a data scientist at a big tech company, you could actually be saving like tens of people's lives, um, maybe every year and still living on like much more than you would have lived on in a nonprofit sector or as a teacher or a nurse or another helping career. Um, and then, you know, I would actually argue you could have even more impact by donating it to like pandemic prevention or ai alignment though obviously it's harder to quantify the impact um but yeah a lot of these organizations just if they had more money like i mean we mentioned meter earlier like if meter had more money they could hire more engineers they could have more compute and they could have better measurements of whether about to get recursive self-improvement or not which is like the most crucial strategic thing to understand in the world um and it's kind of amazing that like anyone can actually help with that um by using the this thing called money to like translate our labor into like other people's labor um but yeah i think by working direct finding a job that suits you directly in the area you could probably have even bigger impact still but obviously that involves making a career transition um which by the way on our sub stack the 80 000 hour sub stack we have a guide to like if you want to switch into working on ai risk in three months what should you do and it has like six numbered steps where it's like these are the things to work through and all the all the courses and fellowships that can also help you transition we have listed on that article and also on our job board so that yeah the job board not only has like open jobs but also it has this other tab where you can find like fellowships and training courses and funding that also is is around to help people transition it's called how to transition
1:28:08Jon Krohn:into ai risk in three months ah how to transition okay all right i'll have that in the show notes as well fantastic uh so yes i've got it yeah it's on the sub stack exactly as opposed to the main site which you said well ben what an episode we've gone well over on the time that we had I set aside for this, but really interesting conversation. So I'm glad that we did that. Other than your own book and all the resources that you've already talked about in this episode, which we will for sure have in the show notes, including yes, a link to 80 ,000 hours, how to fulfill, how to have a fulfilling career that does good, uh, your new international bestselling book.
1:28:50Jon Krohn:Beyond that, I always ask for a book recommendation other than your own. Do you have anything that comes to mind for you? I mean, I maybe said this last time, but the precipice by Toby Ord, an introduction to accidental risk and why it matters. Um, but if you want something more fun, then maybe just, I mean, heavy going, but the Greg Egan books, which are like a sci-fi novel. And they're the only ones that really wrestle with how weird, like digital, I did like, if you could actually have digital people, how weird that would be. Um, and like, I think most sci-fi is kind of most sci-fi is basically just like the world today but we can like have spaceships but what we're heading to is is a lot weirder than pretty much like anything that you see envisioned and this is pretty much the only author i know who really tries and wrestles with that cool yeah i found greg eakin so i'll have a link to his works in the show notes as well ben other than the resources that you've already mentioned obviously your book obviously the 80 thousand hours website the 80 ,000 hours sub stack your own personal sub stack uh other than those are there any places that people should be following you maybe on social media yeah my personal sub stack is more focused on yeah what's happening with ai and what you can do about it um and then i'm most active on on x so just ben underscore j underscore todd nice all right what What does the J stand for?
1:30:15John, actually.
1:30:18Jon Krohn:There we go. I didn't know that. All right. Well, Benjamin, John, Todd, it was great to have you on the podcast. And yeah, if we're all here in five years, maybe you can come back on the show. Cool. Thanks so much. Really enjoyed it. Phenomenal episode today. Wow. In it, Ben Todd detailed how passion is a poor starting point for career choice and and how building rare and valuable skills is what actually generates lasting fulfillment, how there's no permanent solid ground in an AI career, only the moving bottleneck of whatever humans can still do that AI can't, so the winning move is to keep shifting your focus onto that fast-moving frontier.
1:30:58Jon Krohn:He talked about how once you have a human-level digital worker, you almost immediately have a superhuman one because of recursive self-improvement, how AI alignment now has perhaps a thousand people working on it, but the risk of extreme power concentration has maybe only 20, making it perhaps the most neglected problem in the world relative to its scale. And he talked about how your career has become a bigger lever, not a smaller one, since a team of five can now do what once took 20 or 30 people, which raises rather than lowers the stakes of how you spend the next few years. As always, you can get all the show notes, including the transcript for this episode, the video recording, any materials mentioned on the show, the URLs for Ben's social media profiles, as well as my own at superdatascience.com slash 1007.
1:31:48Jon Krohn:Thanks to everyone on the Super Data Science podcast team, our podcast manager, Sonja Brejevic, media editor, Mario Pombo, partnerships manager, Natalie Zajski, researcher Serge Massis, and our founder, Kirill Aromenko. Thanks to all of them for making another awesome episode possible for us today and for enabling that super team to create get this free podcast for you. We are deeply grateful to our sponsors. You can support this show by checking out our sponsors links, which are in the show notes. And if you ever are interested in sponsoring an episode yourself, you can get the details on how at johnkrone.com slash podcast.
1:32:22Jon Krohn:Otherwise, please help us out by sharing this episode with someone who would love to have it shared with them. Review the episode on your favorite podcasting app or on YouTube that really does make a difference for us, particularly Apple podcast reviews. subscribe if you're not already a subscriber but most importantly we hope you'll just keep on tuning in i'm so grateful to have you listening and i hope i can continue to make episodes you love for years and years to come till next time keep on rocking it out there and i'm looking forward to enjoying another round of the super data science podcast with you very soon
From the publisher
Benjamin Todd, co-founder and President of 80,000 Hours and author of the new Penguin Random House book 80,000 Hours: How to Have a Fulfilling Career That Does Good, joins Jon Krohn for a major update on career strategy in the AI era, his first appearance since before ChatGPT existed. Ben explains why “follow your passion” is backwards and why rare, valuable skills used to help others are what actually generate lasting fulfillment, the ABZ framework for planning under deep uncertainty, why the only durable move is to keep shifting onto whatever bottleneck AI can’t yet clear, and how a human-level digital worker becomes superhuman almost immediately. He and Jon also map the risk landscape, power-seeking AI, extreme power concentration, engineered pandemics, gradual disempowerment, and S-risks, before landing on a hopeful, actionable note: your career is a bigger lever than ever.
Additional materials: https://www.superdatascience.com/1007
Interested in sponsoring a SuperDataScience Podcast episode? Email natalie@superdatascience.com for sponsorship information.
In this episode you will learn:
(06:44) The ABZ framework for career planning under deep uncertainty
(14:30) Why “follow your passion” is backwards and what builds fulfillment instead
(20:52) The moving bottleneck: how to stay valuable as AI keeps improving
(29:54) Why a human-level digital worker becomes superhuman almost immediately
(51:11) Power-seeking AI and extreme power concentration
(1:16:11) Why your career is a bigger lever than ever




