2025 Predictions, Clocking Zuck's Wrist, Bullish on the Everything, LA Fires

In short

TBPN Episode Summary: 2025 Predictions, Clocking Zuck's Wrist, Bullish on Everything, LA Fires

Podcast Details

Podcast Title: TBPN
Podcast Description: A daily technology show streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 AM - 2 PM PST, Monday to Friday. Also available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
Episode Title: 2025 Predictions, Clocking Zuck's Wrist, Bullish on Everything, LA Fires
Episode Description: Discusses predictions for 2025, including tech trends, Zuck's wristwatch, market forecasts, and updates on the LA fires.

Key Topics Discussed

Predictions for 2025
Equestrian Market Growth: Predictions that the equestrian market will boom as tech founders and wealthy journalists invest in horses.
AI Rights: Discussion on whether AI will gain rights and the implications of AI agents forming labor unions.
Corporate Responsibility: Predictions suggest corporations may increasingly fund emotional harvesting to train AI.
Privacy Trends: Predictions that privacy will become a luxury and offline life will become a status symbol.
Declining Fertility Rates: Expectation that fertility rates will drop globally, leading governments to fund reproduction startups.

Zuck's Luxury Watch
Clocking Zuck's Wrist: Analysis of Mark Zuckerberg’s $1 million Grubel Forsey watch worn during a significant announcement, highlighting its craftsmanship and exclusivity.
Craftsmanship: Only 2-3 pieces made per year, taking around 6,000 hours of handiwork.
Symbolism: The watch represents Zuck's success and is positioned as a celebration of genuine handmade craftsmanship.

General Market Forecasts
Economic Predictions: Varied predictions for the S&P 500 and general market performance, noting some bearish sentiments.
AI and Content Creation: Predictions that handcrafted content will gain value as AI-generated content saturates the market, leading to a revived interest in quality over quantity.
Healthcare and AI: Discussions on how AI will impact healthcare, particularly in drug development timelines and clinical trials.
Tech Consolidation: Expected acceleration in tech consolidations and bundling cycles.

Fire Update in Los Angeles
LA Fires: The episode features an urgent update about fires in Los Angeles, impacting the live recording and drawing attention to community safety.

Key Takeaways

The mix of humor and serious predictions showcases the evolving landscape of technology and market trends.
The discussion on Zuck’s watch serves as a metaphor for success and the intersection of technology with luxury goods.
Predictions reflect a blend of optimism and caution regarding economic and tech advancements, including the role of AI in society.

Additional Notes

The hosts frequently engage in entertaining banter, which adds humor to serious discussions.
References to various cultural and market phenomena illustrate the broader implications of technology on lifestyle and societal trends.
The potential for AI to significantly alter job markets and personal privacy remains a pivotal topic in future predictions.

Conclusion This episode provides listeners with an entertaining yet insightful glimpse into the future of technology, economic forecasts, and societal changes anticipated for 2025. The hosts maintain a light-hearted approach while addressing serious matters, making it a dynamic and engaging discussion.

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Transcript

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0:28Welcome to Technology Brothers, the most profitable podcast in the world. one. Um, and she posted the full takes and then she boiled them down. We should start with ours. It's hilarious because ours got boiled down. She clearly like ran these through chat GPT to give like summaries and you lose a lot of our humor. Yeah. But what matters is ultimately that we're correct and vindicated. Yes. So what was ours again? We're, uh, ours was 31. The equestrian market will boom as exited tech founders and Nepo journalists buy horses. Yeah. And, um, And yeah, it's not, the only thing I would say here, it got condensed.

1:01It's not just Nepo journalists. There's people like Kara Swisher who make$100 ,000 an episode. She's also extremely well. Yes, but I'm just saying she can buy her own horses, right? Now, now. She doesn't have to go to the trust fund. She could buy a pretty world-class stallion almost every episode. Yeah, there's kind of two dynamics going on in the liquidity markets right now. It's like the IPO window's open, So there's going to be more liquidity for early stage founders and employees and entrepreneurs who have been working really hard, creating a lot of value, building real estate. And the M &A market broadly coming back.

1:34And then secondarily, as another factor, a lot of trust funds are unlocking now for the journalists. And so there's just going to be a flood of cash coming in. And obviously that's going to drive equestrianism. And we'll be participating as well. Yep. Yeah, exactly. So let's go through these. Number one, Don't Die will become the blueprint for Maha. Okay, so one thing that's interesting, too, is these predictions were made by individuals, not just Molly. But we don't actually have the context on who did it. So that allows us to be pretty unconflicted and ruthless. So anyways, Don't Die will become the blueprint for Maha.

2:12I'm going to say a hard no on this. I think Don't Die gets a bunch of stuff right. but maha is so much more about getting the basics right like let's clean up our water supply let's uh you know fix school lunches you know these sort of basic things where don't die is this sort of hyper optimization you know get your biomarkers checked monthly type thing and it's kind of like overkill for the average the average the average person should exercise daily eat whole foods yeah get some good sleep you can kind of think about it like don't die is like bench pressing two plates Maha is more about benching three plates.

2:50And it even goes further with like, Brian Johnson's a vegetarian, doesn't eat meat. Maha, obviously consuming a ton of meat. I'd eat meat almost every day, multiple steaks per day. And so there is a decent amount of alignment there. They're both like directionally in the same direction. Do you know that stat, by the way? It's like 10 % of guys consume like 80 % of the meat in the United States. Of course. and uh we know that our listeners are firmly in the in the in the 10 yeah i've been on this for for weeks tweeting about how if you get a wedding invitation you and they ask for you know chicken or fish you should be able to say double meat double steak you should be able to say double yeah i want double steak that was my that was my that was for for a period of my life i would live on two yeah uh i would get going to chipotle get two bowls double rice double beans double meat every time and that was like that was at least one meal for the day yeah fantastic yeah everyone has every bro has that story it's great i think sweet green could really win over you know the the our listeners at least by all the salad stuff and just by making the regular meat like amount like the the double for like an you know kava or whatever yeah so if you go into sweet green you get double meat you're actually getting quadruple yeah yeah there needs to be like an arms race in the meat category of all these fast casual slop bowl places uh just like you know all the ai firms are benchmarking oh who's doing best on you know mmlu i want to know okay which fast casual restaurant is the most protein per dollar yeah yeah i'm pushing it extreme i want the base case to be 100 grams i'm trying to do a pound per uh one gram per pound of body honestly but why stop there why not go to three pounds per you know how you were joking oh yeah one and a half one and a half grams of protein per pound of body weight yeah for me that's 400 grams of protein a day and i was like damn to do that i would need to drink a gallon of milk a day go mad right you should you know how much protein is a gallon of milk i actually don't 120 grams solid We have to drink three gallons of milk.

5:03It'd be great. We got to rip through these. We got a lot of predictions. AI will gain rights, religions, and even sue humans. For 2025, though, that's a little soon. I don't know. Yeah, rights take a while. But I said this yesterday. I think that AGI will be achieved when AI agents are striking and forming labor unions. There's been a little bit of that. Park City style. like it's like they behave lazily on certain days and people think it's because it's been baked into the the llm memory that like friday is like a chill day yeah and so it acts like a like an employee on friday and you have to say like work like it's a monday it's a monday yeah uh there will be a twitter files for government that's interesting i think torenberg said that uh i've never been happy with the declassifications that have gone on there's been so many times where it's like oh this person's gonna blow it wide open even the twitter files i didn't think were that crazy yeah it was like oh really like they they blocked some accounts like we knew that when it happened i don't know the new the new x files is they were um you just can't post about the the guy adrian dipman or whatever if you try to post the article it just says like error yeah isn't that because it doxes him and he's a non and so elon's been against doxing and so i think that that's actually kind of consistent but like it is it is the information's already out there it is culturally important um corporations will pay for emotional harvesting to train ai i don't get it um luigi mangioni and sam bankman freed will launch a blockchain healthcare protocol from prison silly silly i i don't think that they're aligned in any way and it's just a wildly different like sbf still maintains that like he like you know fucked up on accounting and luigi like murdered someone like i don't think they're as aligned as people think yeah privacy will become a luxury with offline life becoming a status symbol wrong obviously you want to be yeah i mean the second the second part is true but that's also been true forever but the classic thing if you're making if you're a vc making predictions just say what was true for the last year sure and you sound like also it sounds like people who just are bad posters are like actually privacy is a luxury yeah i don't want a thousand likes on my banger yeah i prefer having a locked account with carried carried no interest or friend he got it he had a banger about wearing a nice jacket got over a thousand likes and then he deleted it for some reason he made some posts about oh i i never wanted to have an account that was like you know it's like you can't handle the heat hey stay out of the kitchen your menswear account sit down stop posting about buying out companies and buying rare minds and building acquiring rare jackets exactly you're um there's a huge market for the the conservative menswear guy because the the current menswear guy derek is like he only targets republicans and he's just clearly very left-wing he's like more of a political project than like actually yeah yeah it's a political project larping is but no one's done it on the other side yeah like here's bill clinton and it doesn't match i feel like people make fun of like fetterman or whatever for wearing his basketball shorts a little bit but there's no one who's like that's their shtick yeah right uh seven fertility rates will drop globally prompting governments to fund reproduction startups so uh at the rate that we're having children i think we're going to be able to keep uh rates i don't buy the governments funding reproduction startups drop the startups there are other ways for governments to fund reproduction and it's just like cool incentives it's just the child tax credit like the the tax credit's crazy you don't want to start up we learned this from solyndra like they fuck it up what i don't i don't remember what the actual tax credit is that you get for hiring like staff to help raise your kids but it's something like we spend 15 times that credit amount on child care every year like it just bringing up that makes a lot of sense um and would be a uh you know it would be cool if there was like a maha style movement for for pronatalism fertility in america like what laws would we change there's a big one about uh car seats you know this because the car seats are so bulky now and they're so big and they're required like super late like you can have like a seven-year-old who's like a hundred pounds and you're like still in the car seat yeah and you can't like so it requires families have bigger station wagon anymore so you can't even get a station wagon so they don't make them anymore so you have to buy the three-row suv that's obviously more expensive every suv is like 10k more than a car and so uh yeah and you talk to any parent it's like yeah like we wore seat belts but we sat in the back seat and there were four of us and we just like you know buckled up and it was fine um ai agents will disrupt traditional search and internet business models applying real pressure to google's dominance interesting this is funny funny because i don't know who made this prediction but if you we're going to talk about this later uh fred over at usv says apple and google will leverage their existing market power to surpass open ai chat gpt and consumer ai prompts by the end of 2025 it's a class so like i feel like the real risk here is that apple just builds in basically it's apple i think google is no i know but eventually Usually Apple will say, hey, this$20 billion a year from Google is nice, but we could just create a better.

10:35I disagree with that. You think they're just going to keep it going? I disagree with that because that$20 billion is 100 % margin. They don't have to do anything. And they know that like anytime they need to manage a new business line, there's risk and it could go wrong and stuff. And Google is just the best. And AirPods, which are like the biggest hit ever. But this is the classic, like is AI a disruptive technology or sustaining technology, sustaining innovation, disruptive innovation. and yeah I mean there's a poly market now for who will have the best model by the end of Q1 or Q2 or something and Google is actually in the lead which is interesting they certainly have the scale and the data so it'll be interesting to track that.

11:12Starlink will become the dominant internet and cellular provider a critical layer for AI data stacks interesting I don't know about dominant internet or cellular provider that's like that's super fast rollout. I'd love to hear why this is directly relevant to AI data stacks. I don't understand that part either. But sounds cool. Yeah. I mean, super pro Starlink. I do think that every founder CEO should buy a Starlink and have it because you cannot afford to not have good internet whenever you're traveling. Like you're going to be in some weird place. The internet's not going to be good. You're going to miss calls.

11:46And the cost is so low that you can't afford not to have it. And you can expense it. The S &P 500 will end below$6 ,000 down or flat on the year huh bearish i completely disagree i think things are going to rip but we'll see cool uh the rise of ai slop will put a premium on handcrafted content much like this filmed in a possibly restoring trust in in mainstream media i actually said i think that's an interesting point so the rise of ai slop will put a premium on on artisanal content possibly restoring trust in mainstream media and it's funny because mainstream media despite everything that they've done still is the most trustworthy place to get news.

12:26If you just go for like the facts, like the fact checking at the New Yorker or the Wall Street Journal. It wasn't until we launched the Truth Zone that we became the most trusted news source. And I also think it was very important that we launched this podcast when we did because like people joke, oh, it's AI generator or whatever. But like clearly we're not actually generating three hours of above Sora level video per day. like just the cost even if we even if soar was good enough which it's not there would be they would destroy our profitability it would be so expensive and it'd be impossible and so like anyone who knows the technology knows that this podcast is real and so this is the last moment where we can prove that this is real and then we can carry that forward forever yeah so even if and the other thing is and the other thing is you will know that we we didn't do it and then we stayed forward as long as you trust us that we didn't swap ourselves out in the future well the reason that people can trust us is that we love podcasting so much we love podcasters high it's a high that cannot be experienced in any other way yep and so even when the models get good enough to just fully generate the content why we would be we would be not doing our favorite thing in the world yeah right which is podcasting so will never happen let's go to 12 agi is a marketing scam it's overhyped and far from realization we talked about this earlier yeah uh sam altman runs a company with bill not billions but hundreds of millions of daus yeah and so he's basically has credit now every once a month to come out and say you know in some new dramatic way agi is right around the basically figured it out so we know how to do it now so i think it's cool i mean it all goes back to the definition like when i use when i use chat gpt for the first time i was like this is agi yeah like it's artificial for sure it's very general you can ask it about anything and it's definitely intelligent now is it the smartest thing and the whole smarter than every human can you make it like can you make it yeah of course but like it passes the bar for me for just like being artificial general and intelligent show show chat gpt to somebody in the 90s yeah and they they would and so clearly i i think we need to move from like there's the AGI stuff which I think we've achieved and then there's ASI the super intelligence where it's smarter than everyone it's reinforcing itself there's no employees at OpenAI because it's just building its own system or whatever but then there's this massive gap in the middle I was kind of trying to come up with like a phrase for it but like I like AEI like artificial economic intelligence and trying to measure it just in terms of profit essentially and say, you know, right now, OpenAI 01, ChatGPT Pro subscription, Sam said, they're losing money on it because people are using it so much.

15:08But there should be a, there should be a, like an evaluation where you go and the prompt is just make money and it goes and finds a job. Maybe that's just on Upwork doing like little tiny tasks, but it goes and does that and just makes money. And then what is the total value? And at some point, the value of like these AI systems directly producing cash flow will be higher than humans. Yeah. And it'll be 50-50. What's happened to the market caps of Fiverr and Upwork and these? I mean, I think that those will still be valuable because they're aggregation platforms around the type of task. They are independent of who's doing the task.

15:47No, I just mean more. That's true to some degree, but I'm just saying so much of the work being done on those platforms is very low hanging fruit for models. True, true. The question is just like, how does the model go and find the job? But it's interesting, Fiverr's still up 30 % over the past. Yeah, so I mean, yeah, I like tracking things more quantitatively than these like qualitative, oh, we move the goalposts every six months for what AGI is. It's like the touring test was great because it was binary And it was very clear that we jumped past that. And then - We need to change, swap the benchmarks to the models getting money, right?

16:32Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. It's like how much, yeah. How much money are they making? What's your hustle? Exactly. And are they making 1 % as much as humans in terms of total global GDP? Are they making 50 %? At a certain point, there's going to be like, okay, they're doing everything, but there aren't humanoids yet. So they aren't doing like the farming and the plumbing or whatever, but they're doing a lot of the white collar work. And then there'll be a question about like, Also, literally just tracking how big the models are and how much energy is being expended on AI, that's a much more valuable thing to track.

17:02Because everyone's saying, if we scale up another two orders of magnitude, it's AGI, it's ASI, whatever. But the question is just like, how are we tracking against that? Because if we go through a Moore's Law flatline for a couple years, we're going to feel that one way or another. I think one thing's clear. Clearly, intelligence is a spectrum. We're already on that. We're already on it. and yet it's still beneficial for people that are having to raise billions of dollars to constantly say, we're on the precipice of this great moment. You need to get in before AGI is achieved. So I wouldn't call it like a marketing scam, but it's certainly a buzzword.

17:37Yeah. Right? In the sense that like the cloud was a buzzword, but it wasn't a scam. Yeah. Right? What's the next one? Climate startups will rebrand as energy independence to appeal to conservatives. Huh. Yeah, that makes sense. if you're doing solar or wind or nuclear like uh isaiah taylor's going down to mar-a-lago in a few days to do a conference on nuclear and a lot of the nuclear companies that a lot i know a lot of these founders they don't care about politics at all really yeah that's just about and energy itself doesn't really care about politics either no of course when there's subsidies involved yeah but in general energy is energy yeah we need a lot of it yeah we should make more of it yeah and And I don't think it should be.

18:17Yeah, I talked to a guy who is a consultant for like the oil and gas industry. If you take your climate tech company, rebrand your own energy independence, you might be able to get some cash from Donald Trump Jr. There you go. 1789 Capital. He's big into the anti. Let's go 14. AI wearables will flop, but meta will dominate AI hardware. Those seem at odds. What is an AI wearable if not a headset? If not AI hardware. um yeah i i i think uh lindy man said something recently where he was like we need to get the phone built into glasses because the aesthetics of a bunch of people at a cafe sitting around with your neck cranked over just just you know using your device are terrible so i don't i think what about ai wearables will flop and i also i just i think it's i think it's too early to say that i think you have smart people like avi who are who have so much i i was thinking vr wearables yeah yeah okay ai wearables like this is like friend.com yeah well a lot of them are have already kind of flopped yeah yeah uh there was that there's the humane pin that was really rough and then uh what was that other one that was rabbit rabbit rabbit that one seemed cool for kids so humane also pivoted i don't know if you saw this they basically are making this os for your devices now and yeah it seems i really thought rabbit should just focus on on a cool device for kids that gets them yeah yeah yeah go take a picture of a flower tells you what the flower is or it's basically redesigned it as a radio for parents and their kids exactly like we've talked about the yodo how that's a really cool device like there's a bunch of things that you can do there yeah i always felt that they a lot of the wearable companies would have done better going for the kids market because kids don't have phones already parents want them off devices so if you give them an audio native device yeah it makes sense and so meta will dominate ai hardware the ray-bans are decent it is cool to be able to wear the glasses and listen to a podcast and then immediately say hey meta you know uh what what year was this building made that i'm looking at like that is cool i like having an llm just that i can talk to whenever that's nice but apple still has like so many moats there with the airpods and the watch and on the phone like i i think that they're i don't know dominate is the right word yeah let's move on to 15 the taste renaissance will replace content creation with artists i like we think of ourselves as artists we think of ourselves as capitalists capitalists and capitalists first artists a good artist is the best artists are highly commercial so yes andy warhol said that but i do so i think like i would just take this in a different direction where i think that it's going to become increasingly hard to compete as part-time content creators when there's any, when there's billions of machines creating AI slop constantly.

21:08Yeah. So you look at David Senra, that's like, he just focuses on the podcast 24 seven and it's impossible to compete with him. Independent media will overtake mainstream media. Number 16, that's the flip side of the other restoring trust in MSM. I agree. I just feel like there's still so much value in the stamps of CNBC said this is true. CNN said this is true. There's always going to be. I guess the question is like, if you're adding up the market cap of News Corp, New York Times, CNN, all these different, everyone that owns Wall Street Journal and all that, you add up all those market caps and then you add up how much cash flow is Rogan making, Huberman, and you apply some sort of EBITDA multiple to that.

21:57Yeah, independent media is probably still smaller and it's probably not going to overtake it in 2025. That's an interesting... But do we include Spotify? Do we include YouTube? Because YouTube is definitely bigger than the mainstream media if you include that in the market cap. I do think independent media will eclipse mainstream media eventually from a revenue standpoint. I think it already has if you include YouTube. yeah yeah um and and spotify yeah but then the question is what you know like but the only thing this this to me is revenue is kind of a bullshit prediction because it's calling out a bunch of things that have been happening for decades again yep yep um so not not the most interesting number 17 empire building will be valued over get rich quick schemes a little bit of a shift in the trend there a big question about the zoomers but i i feel like money crowd every it's always been cool to build empires get rich quick schemes have always been very cool to get rich quick yeah yeah isn't that what you did yeah yeah i did i did get rich quick yeah um but um and you i mean you would describe your business as a scheme in some ways every business is a scheme i think so yeah yeah it's a conspiracy theory every business is a conspiracy it's just a small group of people trying to get money together.

23:14Now the AIs are trying to figure out how to get money. But humans have an edge there for now. For the next year, humans have an edge on getting money. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, if you become a millionaire before 40, I think you got rich pretty quick. You just don't want to get rich slowly. That's not the way to do it. Yeah, do not. 18, AI-related litigation and fraud will accelerate. Yeah, we've talked about this. A little bit of interesting game-theoretic dynamic where it's like, oh, it's going to be so easy to sue people with AI. There's going to be a million lawsuits. Well, it's also going to be very easy to defend yourself with AI.

23:48And so the AIs will battle it out and maybe it'll net out. And there's just like - The courts are going to get even more and more and more backed up. Like they're already, there's already year long delays and cycles. The adoption level of some of the tech is insane. I mean, they still don't use cameras. They use a person that draws the stuff. The case for AI in the legal industry is it's so good at text. And the legal industry is just completely dependent on documents and text. And so that adoption could be faster. It's been 100 years since we invented the camera and they're still doing courtroom sketch artists.

24:23And then they also have stenographers that write everything down instead of just recording it and transcribing it. Yeah, it's crazy. Yeah, rough. A lot of this stuff is just so entrenched in like a bunch of like laws and stuff. And then there's jobs and politicians and people don't want to change. It's just rough. uh number 19 state governments will increase sales tax audits to address deficits what a wonky prediction just like i i wish we knew who did this i mean it's probably true just because that's true in general with governments are trying to you know constantly squeeze i don't know i mean i i don't know how big sales tax is in some kind in some states but i know that like if everyone says like oh go to florida no income tax but uh the property alaska actually has the lowest state tax burden of any state because they might even have an income tax.

25:15It's very, very low, but then they also have really low fees and really low sales taxes and stuff. So something like Florida or Texas might have no income tax, but they might have higher business taxes or higher licenses or they might make money in different ways because you can't run a state with no money. It doesn't make sense. Number 20, tech consolidation will accelerate with bundling cycles dominating. um yeah i mean uh i don't know i feel i feel like the how much more consolidated could you get the unbund like it's it's you can't say that tech is just bundling or tech is just unbundling because it's such a ridiculously massive industry at this point it's arguably not even one standalone industry it's hundreds of industries combined so i don't know i i think that we're going to get into this later but um gokol rajaram talks about how really there's going to be this battle between new agentic b2b software and traditional sass and this sort of like dashboard model yeah and how much of a dance can they do like even even salesforce is changing their business model to like performance outcomes instead of seat licensing yeah um and so if if a company as big and old as salesforce is leading that charge and like hey it's okay to change your business model i could see a lot of like the the the mid-tier sass companies that are charging seats say hey yeah we should do do the switch like if salesforce could do it we could definitely figure 21 and video will peak i don't like this i don't like when people are bearish i mean look at it also get a real hobby look at the breakdown in uh by dylan patel in semi-analysis of amd yeah i mean it was like a fucking nuclear bomb going off on that company it was so rough just like yeah their culture is broken they can't do anything george hots has been talking about this for a long time like like you literally cannot train a model on their chips because it's so buggy and their software so bad and it's like on a performance base amd is in some ways better than nvidia just on like cost per flop but like you just cannot actually run the training and so it's like who's their competition who's going to do it and yeah there's a couple startups that are doing custom chips and stuff and there's tpus but like everyone just needs nvidia so they're just going to keep buying it for a long time and uh i don't know my my uh my shoeshine boy has not uh has not told me to buy nvidia yet so that's the top signal usually or the taxi driver what's that phrase from the from the great depression it was like i think it was shoeshine boy or something yeah yeah it was like when when your butler's telling giving you the stock tip then you know it's down yeah yeah sell everything uh the ipo market will see 12 plus high quality debuts let's go we love to see the window open yeah brain health will be prioritized with the creation of aura for the brain yeah there are some pretty cool people working on brain stuff obviously neural links like the big one but that's more for what's that dreaming the dreaming there's a dreaming one and then the the former neural link guy has left and started a new company and then also uh fred ursom started one with jeremy baron holtz who was at right link and i think that's non-invasive and all the i mean just seeing what's possible with Neuralink opens up so many new opportunities.

28:29I mean, imagine a device that gave you podcasters high throughout the entire day. Yeah, you could just sit in a tank of fluid and live in the matrix. It'd be great. AI innovation will shift from scaling compute to algorithmic advancements. Yep, that makes sense. That's kind of happening. We're seeing that with the 0103 models. There's clearly so much laying in. Yeah, but at the same time, Microsoft is saying, we're going to spend 80 billion dollars on new data centers yes but it's unclear if that's inference or or training i don't think that they specified that that's because yeah it's clearly both i yeah i think it's clearly both but but they're clearly scaling they're clearly yeah planning i think everyone is scaling like everyone is everyone is thinking about what's the next order magnitude larger uh pre-training run or whatever yeah uh and there's a bit of a data wall but they'll figure that out and once they get all that together uh there should be another level of value just from getting a gpt5 model under the hood of something that's already been uh reinforcement learned to death like the 0103 models um 25 real world ai will impact fortune 500 companies showing up in their financial performance that's kind of vague i mean certainly i don't know if this is saying it's good or bad but i think it's certainly affecting the stocks because everyone needs to call mckinsey and get something yeah and you see companies like clarna uh, Klarna is the CEO has been very smart on getting out, just saying we haven't hired anybody in a year type of thing.

29:56Um, I don't know if that's true. Um, he should take it further. He should be like, I don't even go to work anymore. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I am not actually doing this interview right now. This is, I'm fully generated. I'm retired. Yeah. I'm post-economic post AGI in my, you know, what is it? Fully automated luxury communist era. Yeah. I love that. Data center sending will shift significantly towards inference. That's what we were talking about with Microsoft. We don't know. We'll see. Tier one GPs from firms like Sequoia will leave to start their own funds. Maybe, maybe not. It's unclear. There's a lot of people that made a ton of money in the last run.

30:41and they might just retire yep and so i i i agree with the departure or you do the smart thing sean mcguire you just make take over the fund yeah just become the fund yes and then pivot the entire brand towards being dark maga dark maga yeah um big move the creation of doge will bring back civic duty with tech talent competing with see this is my favorite kind of prediction you just say the thing that's been happening for the last three months everybody's like wow what an insight but it's cool it's cool it's cool trend i'm i'm i'm uh it's it is definitely happening a lot of tech people are going in and considering government jobs that wouldn't have in the past but it is rough i mean you need to be post-economic because i think like yeah like a lot of these or there is a thing where when you go into certain positions in the government you have to sell all your assets.

31:36So the private markets are often, you know, a lot of insider trading happening, happening. If you're sitting, you know, if somebody's sitting on a$10 million position of something they don't actually think is worth nearly that much, they can go into the government, sell their, you know, bags, and then, you know, it's a good way to get out. Yeah. AI will accelerate drug development timelines by three to five years. I buy this just on the paperwork side. I mean, honestly, when we were released, when we were dealing with with the FDA and submitting PMTAs for these different nicotine pouch products.

32:08Every single one of these, different color, different application. Another 100 ,000 pages of text. We actually got to a point where I was talking to our software developer about using a Python API to manipulate Word documents. To see if there's a way to go and basically do a very advanced find and replace. Well, LLMs do that basically perfectly. And so there's a million ways. Just the paperwork side. Just the paperwork side is huge on reducing the cost of this higher throughput. And then also, ideally, on the FDA side, they're using these tools, too, to comb through and find obvious errors and act as a first pass.

32:46Now, I imagine there's a bunch of laws that tell them they can't do that and it needs to be human and stuff, and it's going to be very difficult. And then there's also all, like, the actual AI drug development stuff where it's like, oh, let's pull all the data from modeling and prediction and stuff. I mean, they solved the protein folding problem with AI. What was interesting about the protein folding thing was that when DeepMind solved that, the biotech stocks didn't move. And so I talked to a buddy of mine who's a biotech investor, and I was like, everyone in tech is freaking out about this.

33:14Like, they're acting like it's like AGI, like the biggest breakthrough ever. And it is really cool because it was this fundamentally hard problem, and DeepMind solved it. But why isn't it moving the market? and he was like well like it's not actually that big of a like protein folding is something that you can like yes it's awesome to be able to just like click a button on the computer and get the result but before that it was like send it off to a machine that costs 50k and a research like assistant at a phd program will do it for you and it's and it's it's annoying and it takes time but it's not actually the real barrier to like innovation in the space.

33:54Happiness will be seen as the key to health, even over strict wellness routines. It is funny. AI is making trying to predict the future so much more interesting because five years ago, six years ago, 10 years ago, it's like, okay, we're going to have more mobile apps and have more SAS. And now it's becoming harder and harder and harder because we're getting the sense that ai is going to disrupt so much of our lives and the way that we work and how our governments work and all these things yep it actually makes these um you know predictions uh quite a bit harder but definitely more interesting yeah software development will become as easy as creating youtube videos thanks to ai coding assistance wait we missed did we miss 30 happiness will be seen no i just said that okay so i have got to disagree with this okay business performance is the key to health even more so than strict wellness routines that's where i'd push back i love it uh because uh if you have business performance you'll be happy but if you're don't have business performance how could you possibly yep yeah actually be happy so software development becomes as easy as creating youtube videos thanks to ai coding assistants that's true and happening with cursor and devon um we're seeing this uh i mean even like the software developers like people in the community are just building tools now for us that previously would be like a 10k contract on yeah or something and they're just doing it in like an hour for free time for fun and it's great like uh we have these ideas and like they can just be instantiated so quick that's amazing and i do think it will be very cool um this guy uh you know Trevor from Brod.

35:36Oh, no.

35:40So Trevor, I don't know. I'm blanking on his last name. But he just posted today that he, I tried to put it in the stack, that he just made a SaaS tool for artists that are managing their tours, basically. Oh, that's cool. And it's becoming, it's so much easier. It's now, in the same way that 10 years ago, it was like, oh, I want a website. And you just make a website. Now you can just say that. It's becoming like, oh, I want this app. and you just make it. I got to get back into some sort of development stack and like get the tooling ready. Like the hardest part is for me is not actually like, I'm pretty good at like writing the actual code.

36:12What sucks is like setting up the environment and figuring out how to deploy it and making sure it stays up. And if there's a cron job, it needs to run every hour and stuff. Like all these different like DevOps stuff I always get hung up on. Back in like the Heroku era, it was pretty good. And I've seen like Replit and I've played with like a bunch of these different tools, but I like, I want to, I want to be able to just like get with this, but I always need like a couple days of dedicated time and I can just never find the time. Um, and the last one, Molly O'Shea will become the next Joe Rogan.

36:43Do it, Molly. Do it. But you got a podcast a lot more and you got a podcast for a lot longer. These one hour Rogan built his business on the three hour podcast. Yep. And he started with people that were comedians. You go back and you look at the very first Rogan episodes and they're literally everyone's famous. It was insane what a tastemaker that guy was. It was like Bill Burr. Oh, they weren't necessarily, were they not famous at that time? Yeah, I mean, they were like okay comedians back then because it was 20 years ago or something. But it's literally every single person from the first season or first year of Rogan has been on Rogan the last year because he picked everyone correctly.

37:21And that's what you should ask when you're doing an interview show is do I really think that the person I'm doing this interview with I will have them on in 20 years because I'm that confident that they'll be successful Joe Rogan should have been a head trend manager a bunch of capitalists okay great let's move on to Ramin Seth Ramin met this guy in New York with Pomp great dude he also hosts a very cool event down in Newport intersection of pro sports and venture he did he did some sort of like I think he made his money rolling up staffing agencies and yeah built a staffing agency and then I think sold it to private equity.

37:57Um, uh, we love private equity. Really, really interesting guy. Uh, 25, he gives 25 predictions for 2025. Uh, Bitcoin hits 200 K love it a little bit lower than our price target, which I believe was 25 million, but, um, but we'd love to see 200 K. It's a good start. Yeah. One Bitcoin really should get you out of the nautilus territory and into the uh yep the the grand complication territory yep uh at retail s &p 500 sees another 15 gain i agree ai deflates sass uh we're still like iffy on that because maybe the sass companies pivot but like in general well yeah and the sass companies have one thing that upstarts don't which is distribution big customer bases a lot of them can introduce new products.

38:47So we'll see. Ozempic GLP ones will cross a hundred billion in annual sales. I don't know what the annual sales are right now, but that sounds right. Um, I was thinking about what is holding people back from being on GLP ones. There was this kidney risk for a while. People thought that it gave you thyroid shrinks your heart a little bit. Is that true? I've seen, I've seen, you gotta put the tinfoil high on for that or no, no, no, no. The studies, studies came out showing that it might shrink your heart a little bit. Well, that could be good because you could be more ruthless you don't yeah you don't want to have too big of a heart in this world if you have to fire a lot of people yeah um venture capital reverts to a cottage industry interesting it's interesting i not gonna happen i feel like i feel like sizes we're seeing i feel like i we probably agree on this if we were to have a longer conversation i think it's clear that if you want to be an independent gp you got to be really fucking good yeah but it's also never been more commercialized.

39:40It's also, yeah, it's also like a definition issue because well, like if I think about venture capital in the sense of like a person with$50 million fund, who's going to write$51 million seed checks, lead them and, and really be the first money in at these very early stage companies that feels like venture capital. That feels like a cottage industry. You can go and raise a$50 billion fund and say, I'm only talking to companies that have a market cap. that's higher than 10 billion. And I'm just going to do SpaceX secondary, Stripe secondary, annual secondary. And that can also be venture capital.

40:15When it's like clearly a different thing, you're like, you're just like, I mean, we saw in the dot-com. It's private market investing. Yeah, it's private market investing. And during the dot-com boom, like these companies were like overvalued. And it was like, they IPO to$500 million. It's like, that's a series A now. Yeah. Valuation dispersion widens. Okay. it seems reasonable um i mean there's still a washout from the post zerp era uh seven u.s ipo market reopens mna accelerates we talked about this a new top tier college is born how would that happen would that just be like an escalation of that'd be like a new ut university of austin oh oh you think he's like he's talking about a brand new one or just like it all of a sudden born to me because it's possible it's like all of a sudden like cal has a couple of good years and And it's like Cal's in the Ivies now.

41:08I mean, Stanford certainly did that, where Stanford's like, you know, above Brown, clearly. And it's like MIT, Harvard, Yale, Stanford, basically. And a lot of the Ivies have kind of fallen off. An AI teacher teaches millions of students at zero cost. I don't know how, like, concentrated the AI teaching will be. Because, I mean, yes, you could say, like, ChatGPT will teach a million people. for sure that's already happening but then you could also say that there's going to be like someone that uses ai to create a youtube channel that's like introduction to economics and that gets a million views but then there's going to be someone else that does it for physics and someone else that does it for chemistry and it's like is that all one ai there's going to be a constant question about like what constitutes a single instance of an ai yeah uh but but i i do agree ai it will be incredible i mean it's teaching me so much it's a great teacher stuff up um India has a blockbuster startup IPO.

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42:03Don't care. Outcome-based software pricing models. Just because it's international. Outcome-based software pricing models go mainstream. We talked about this with Salesforce. Independent media overtakes legacy media. This is the exact same phrasing as the other one. We're doing it here. We're doing it here, folks. Private credit bubble pops. We will LBO Bloomberg. uh private credit bubble bubble pops hopefully not i don't know that much about private credit honestly hopefully not i hate to see bubbles pop yeah mag 7 continues to outperform the rest of the market true longevity products go mainstream brian johnson's kind of doing that um smb m &a arbitrage goes away true your harvard i think that it's gonna be hard to start a plumbing company yeah that we're gonna look back and and laugh that it became high status making the search fun repackaging s &b ownership and s &bs are awesome uh in so many ways but there's a lot of them that are better built from the ground up than you know buying a company with 700k and earnings digital detoxes go mainstream hopefully not in this podcast it'll be devastating to the show if we if we did a digital detox i mean hopefully the ipad thing the ipad kid thing yeah it was more mainstream i definitely it's it's there's a very firm divide among moms and parents from what i'm seeing between the ipad the pro ipad and because when when anti-ipad moms see a kid on glued to an ipad they literally look at it like the kid is just smoking heaters like that is the reaction of the mom they're just like i cannot believe that this kid is just glued to the slot machine basically just going um anyways uh inflation moderates to sub 2.5 percent i think that's right waymo becomes a clear market leader for self driving probably already uh depends on how you define market leader for self-driving there's a lot of teslas on the road total value of teslas yeah but our tesla is really self-driving every video versus level four or whatever yeah it's like all these levels and stuff i don't know i mean yeah with uh with cruise out of the game who else is even trying in full sub greg who uh holtz george hots george george hots is an aftermarket kid he is firmly in the level two camp he is wants to be he thinks tesla will still win they will be the iphone he will be the android yeah and he thinks Waymo will go away because of the cost structure and the design and stuff like that.

44:58But I don't know. I'm a little bit more bullish than him on Waymo. It seems to be working really well. And when I was in one, it was a great experience. It wasn't slow and it seems good. Patience reemerges as a virtue. That's funny. Hubris decreases, humility increases. You know, I don't know about hubris. Like I've been thinking about getting into it and because I just think I'm built different and maybe maybe it doesn't work for other people but maybe for me I think it I think it it it wears nicely on you yeah I think I could pull it off it's gotta when you do it it's just yeah awesome yeah when other people not yeah not so much but other podcasters people struggled with it but uh I think I could pull it off yeah and hubris is just one of those things you gotta you gotta indulge in it and see if it's right for you yeah exactly not everybody looks i mean i was just gonna say not everybody looks good in a suit not true everybody looks better in a suit but you get what i'm getting at let's go to 22 logic and reason return to all walks of life business and politics that's hilarious that's a good that's a good it feels like the opposite of what's happening it feels like crazier than ever i i'm full on but in some but in some but in some ways like the zuck announcement today true true saying hey, free speech is important.

46:17It's also content moderation is also important. We're going to try to throw the needle here better. That just seems like logic and reason. Our standards increase. Standards have been going up dramatically. The innovation train continues to roll. Love it. Great post for me. Let's go to Fred Wilson with his What Will Happen in 2025. He's been doing these for a while. We should honestly go back and look at some of the - That would be a great hour deep dive for sure. Yeah. I've done a lot of these January 1st look forward posts in the 20 years I've been blogging, used many different approaches. Here are some of his predictions.

46:52Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI, ChatGPT, and consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025. What's interesting is - I mean, so they arguably, Google already has because I'm now getting so much AI summaries. And I don't know about Apple because, I mean, have you tried the new Apple Intelligence? I mean you sent me a summary I mean the summaries are the summaries are funny and they're okay they're not super useful but like just actually opening up Siri like I want to be able to just treat it like chat GPT like like hey Siri give me a summary of you know uh of Fred Wilson's predictions over the last 20 years and I should just get chat GPT but with this it's like you have to link your account and then tell it like hey go to chat GPT don't stick around on the local phone i want you to go to the actual big model and it's like it's iffy i they'll figure it out but it's like it is tricky uh and i still think chat.com and chat gpt is still just like mentally a place where people go and i think underrated is like is like i see i think if you look at some of the new product developments that open ai is working on it's a lot of like uh creating like a notebook almost where it's more collaborative and you can edit and develop a document and that's I see it as a new workspace, like a spreadsheet.

48:09And I'm like, okay, I'm going to go do some work with an LLM and I need a new browser tab for that. And Google doesn't have that yet. Like they have Gemini Studio and a million different like beta products. They have the Google search results, which are like kind of helpful if you're just searching, you don't want to see a million sponsored posts and links and stuff. But I'm never going to Google with like, I'm going to work on it collaboratively and really understand this topic in depth. and yeah because if i'm if i'm researching cars or something i'm going to want to follow up and ask a bunch of different questions okay give me the full history of ferrari now compare it to lamborghini now create a table now export all that now give me the highest rank it resort it all this stuff that's something i want to do in its own environment its own ui and and they don't have that uh waymo will surpass uber in rides taken in san francisco and los angeles by the end of 2025 certainly seems like that's happening in san francisco um and i can see it happening in la I don't know about LA just based on they would have to drop 10 times more.

49:10I mean, it depends on what. Yeah, a lot more cars. I bet you could figure out how many they're planning to deliver. Are we talking city or county, Fred? You got to be more precise because there's wildly different geographic areas between Los Angeles City and Los Angeles County. But if they're just in downtown, absolutely. No problem. direct bank to bank payments will surpass credit card interchange payments in a few categories in the u.s in 2025 i have no idea how they're tracking right now yeah um it could have been either one of those could be 10x the other and i wouldn't know but cool the real prediction is will the technology brothers use stable coins to purchase a gt3 rs uh by the end of 2025 we'll definitely be using uh that that bitcoin leverage one yeah yeah lava lava where we can pull the debt out of the bitcoin yeah yeah yeah i want a gt3rs secured by my bitcoin for sure um a decentralized clinical trial attracts millions of participants and produces a favorable outcome and trump's fda not only approves the drug but celebrates the approach seems like an aggressive timeline short timeline.

50:16Yep. That seems somewhat reasonable. But what's weird is that it's like, how do you do a decentralized clinical trial that also requires testing a drug? Because like, so let's say I'm a drug developer and I'm like, okay, what's a very basic thing that like, okay, everyone's having trouble sleeping. So I'm going to make melatonin 2.0, right? And I formulate it in my kitchen. I'm like, I got something that I think is good, but we don't know if it's safe or effective. And so we're going to do decentralized trial. You're listening to the podcast, go to melatonin2.0.com to like test it out and we'll send it to you.

50:54Okay. You're immediately violating FDA rules. So they need to change those. Um, I could see a decentralized clinical trial happening where it's like, everyone is sharing their sleep data and then something, a recommendation comes out. It has to be data oriented. I would see, I could see Maha pulling something in where it's like, we want to know everyone in America now has the opportunity to share their seed oil consumption and their body fat percentage. And we're going to run some massive correlative study on this. Like that could be interesting. But just a lone like drug development, I just think a year is too short.

51:24A housekeeper robot named Judy is launched by Dyson and it becomes a massive success selling millions of units. Huh. Again, timeline issue here. Are they planning to do this? I looked it up and I didn't see anything from Dyson. I think Judy is some reference to a robot in some movie at some point. I just wonder like, okay, so Dyson doesn't have a Roomba right yeah count as a housekeeping robot yeah I don't know Dyson's such a cool company it is yeah Senra's done three episodes yeah yeah you got to go listen to founders yeah I know the exact numbers but he's posted about it so you can go find those um NFT art left for dead in the in at the end of 2024 makes a remarkable comeback and the MoMA purchases the 6529 Museum of Art for an Undisclosed Sum.

52:13I don't know exactly what NFT project that is. It's not a specific project. It's a collector who's put together a bunch of great NFT works. I mean, I think that art values come from stories. Yeah. You like, wasn't it Van Gogh cut off his ear? Yeah. Like by doing that, he canonized himself. And the art, there's probably another person from that era. Cut off your ear, put it on the blockchain, sell it to the MoMA. No, I mean, Da Vinci, like why is the Mona Lisa so valuable? Like it's not, it is like this like groundbreaking, beautiful portrait, but also like there's the whole history of Da Vinci inventing flying machines and stuff.

52:51Like that gives it more value. And it's the same thing with like, you know, Andy Warhol and commenting on capitalism and consumerism and stuff. Like the story is always what drives the value with these things. And so will some NFT project wind up having a fantastic story? Absolutely. I think Moxie Marlin Spikes. Pudgy Penguins selling in Target. Pudgy Penguins is almost a different thing because it's just a commercial business. It's almost like a brand like Supreme or something where it will have value as a commercial brand. But I think just pure NFT art, which I wouldn't even put Pudgy Penguins in, will have value.

53:27one of my favorite things that we did back in the day at party round is we posted on there was this time that was like it was like everybody would post like reply with your wallet address and we'll airdrop you something and so we had a bunch of people do that and then we airdropped everyone nfts that were ads for party round which is great because you send somebody an nft and it just sits in their wallet and they actually have to pay to get it out of their wallet so we just airdrop i remember we put an ad in like dylan field's wallet that was like this is an ad for party round and like like comic sans yeah see like that has that has a provenance where it's like this stunt there's history around it there's a story like those might actually yeah ironically wind up being worth something yeah uh the the nft that i think has almost the most value is moxie marlin spikes as you sow so he was very bearish on nfts and what he did was he said you know everyone's saying these are decentralized but i created he created an nft that when it's viewed on openc it shows you one thing when it's viewed in a ethereum wallet it shows you a different thing phantom wallet shows you a different one and and one of them was just like it showed it rendered a poop emoji the other one it rendered some joke and and that's funny yeah and he wrote this real blog post like taking down and like really analyzing what was wrong with nfts and where people were getting over their skis and and i was like that nft it's only it's a one-of-one and it's by moxie marlin spike the founder of signal like a world historic figure in terms of like cyber security yeah uh it's like and he's not an artist but he's the only one he's made and it's like super interesting i tried to buy it off of him but he was like how much do you how much will you pay me and i was like i don't actually know i haven't thought about what it's worth but i should go and buy it from him um let's keep going an ai doctor with the personality of mr rogers will treat millions of patients at zero cost in 2025.

55:19This is basically just chat GPT and you just prompt it to talk like Mr. Rogers and then boom. I actually do wonder, I wonder how many queries on chat GPT are already like medical diagnoses type things. Probably a lot. Um, I just wonder like this makes it sound like it's someone fine tuning it. And when you go there, you always get Mr. Rogers. And I don't know if that's the winning world what's up you can see the fire from uh whoa there's a fire going on in the palisades right now yeah and this is my brother-in-law sending a picture from century city okay so you can see the flames just ripping not good crazy all right back to the podcast mining operation will pair with a wind farm in newfoundland and grid scale battery storage to power an ai data center showcasing a new model for sustainable infrastructure a lot of buzzwords and this is already happening this is this is uh cruceau this is cruceau cloud like they were a bitcoin mining operation they had peaker plants on natural gas uh extraction and but they also use wind and all sorts of stuff they use grid scale battery storage and they power a data centers now so yeah bullish on cruceau i guess um arizona's esa program attracts over 25 of k-12 students in the state leading to a number of local school closures i don't know enough about the esa program to come at a home i assume it's something like that yeah um but always bullish on new models of education 10 an ai produces an animated feature film that is nominated for an oscar not going to happen in 2025 but probably soon i wouldn't be surprised if there's an oscar nominated film that uses an ai generated image or sequence i don't know about the whole film and certainly not i mean if if hollywood is not creating their own like proprietary tools yep to generate yep content so they're fucked it it is the best example of ai being used in hollywood right now there's a few one was in uh in the marvel endgame avengers movie with thanos they have to animate his mouth and his skin and when they did he not chew enough mass yeah when they put the dots on his face and then they do the facial capture to get the motion but it's not high resolution enough and they use an ai model to upscale the motion capture data essentially and then i saw another version where a film that was that was uh produced in maybe polish or german was translated into english and they used AI to replace the mouth movements.

58:07Interesting. But they also use CGI. So a lot of this AI stuff is going deeper into the CGI pipelines. And so right now, whenever you see those behind the scenes and it's like some soldier fighting on a green screen, it's like that's not always just one click the button and the green screen goes away. A lot of times it's like, well, there's wires and stuff. So they still send it out usually to abroad and they have a bunch of people literally drawing around the edges of every single frame and they just have hundreds of people doing it called rotoscoping and then there might be an ai tool that also is integrated in there and so you know a lot of it's like what what's the definition i disagree with the idea that there'll be a one-shot ai like make me a movie oscar no way but if there's someone who has a great vision and they need a couple frames of like b-roll and stuff and they fill in the story yeah i think in 2025 also the one shot the one shot videos are still going to be they're going to they're they're going to fight back against this and they're not going to give it just because of the statement it makes yeah yeah um a taxi an air taxi service launches in new york city offering an alternative to the l train commute i would love that are we talking helicopters or are we talking flying cars what about the the the blades are you know there's archer the the figure founders last company will someday none of those are at scale in terms of manufacturing yet and i don't think many of them are faa but the thing so i think what i like about what fred does with these is he's just putting out what he wants to happen he doesn't really care if it happens now or in 10 years he just wants it to happen no no no these are just like it's almost like a request request it's great uh tiktok turns i really to meme coins that can be traded on decentralized exchanges all over the world that's funny i wonder like that i that that feels like useless if it's just collector items but maybe valuable if you're able to instantly sell the revenue from a video the problem is that tiktok doesn't have really long half-lifes like you get a million views and then you're done and maybe the creator payout that week is yeah it's kind of interesting to think okay i'm watching this video at sub 10 000 views Can I buy a piece of it and maybe it trades for more?

1:00:25Some of my videos get millions of views every month forever. Like I put one out that's on the history of Donald Trump. It has 3 million views now. That video alone probably generates over$1 ,000 a month. And so I could, in theory, sell that off and then share that. Whoever buys it gets that revenue stream. And there are services that do that. It was called, there was something that was really hot in the YouTube space and a bunch of YouTubers like sold their back catalogs and then like. Oh, yeah, yeah. It was pretty sick. Yeah, it wasn't. I do think that didn't Mr. Beast do that to help fund some of these bigger videos?

1:00:57Which is great. And there's a long history of this with like the Beatles selling the back catalog, Michael Jackson. Yeah, big artists have been doing this forever. And there were a lot of people that made a ton of money doing that because they bought low. They bought the right asset and it went really big. And then there's obviously like the famous Taylor Swift argument about how she sold it and then buyer's or seller's remorse. Very interesting. and number 13 the usv librarian goes rogue gets access to usv's crypto wallet and starts making seed investments one of which turns into a fund returner he's just manifesting at this point love it yeah so i guess the librarian is like an ai that they trained on something else uh should we go to nakil basu triveti who writes the next big thing in 2025 i've always i've always nakil's got a very dialed format yeah these are great because he runs a blog but for his predictions he asks a ton of people to uh to give their predictions then he just aggregates them and he gets some really top people i mean general partner at benchmark dara 3.5 dara from delphi partner at tim at timeter oh he's in here that's great uh jess lee at sequoia lots of good people so uh we should just kind of skip through these pick like the maybe the best one from each category uh let's go with ai agents and i want to hear what claude has to say that's funny he asked claude 3.5 sonnet and claude says the next big thing in 2025 will be the widespread adoption of ai agents that can autonomously handle complex multi-step tasks from scheduling your entire vacation to managing your small business operations while being fully aligned with individual users preferences and values This shift will mark the beginning of truly personalized AI assistance that goes far beyond today's basic chatbots and virtual assistants.

1:02:44I mean, it's certainly happening in niche categories right now with, like, dedicated startups that do things from end to end. And I would love to see more of this because we have plenty of multi-step tasks that can be prompted. I mean, we saw Dwarakash talking about just doing the transcripts from his, like, messy podcast transcripts with lots of ums and uhs. and he has a master prompt, but it's really just one shotting it. It's one prompt. It's much better if he could just have an AI agent sitting there and says, hey, as soon as this RSS feed gets updated, step one, download the MP3. Step two, send it over to Whisper, get it transcribed.

1:03:25Step three, run the transcript. Step four, upload the better transcript. Like do that for me too. Don't just give me the text. I want it live and I want it just sitting there. We have, there was a fan of the show who wrote in and said, I'll do your title ideas and send in some chapters. We get a lot of people asking for chapters on YouTube. And that's a great thing that AI should do. Eventually, YouTube will do it automatically. They have some automatic chapters functionality. But we'd love more fine-tuned control over it. So an AI agent would be fantastic there. AI interfaces. Let's go to Altimeter.

1:04:01Jameen Ball says, I'm on the second page here. And on AI interfaces, Jameen Ball says, the next big thing in 2025 will be a Cambrian explosion of voice AI applications. Latency on inference, latency on networking, and more advanced turn detection background noise detection will lead to truly human-like experiences with software. See, this is, just to make it relevant to some stuff we talked about before, this is the bull case for Friend, is that if the underlying technology gets dramatically better and then you have this device that's with you 24-7, it could turn into the craziest relationship you've ever had.

1:04:41Yeah. Right. Yeah. Yeah. It's also interesting, like, what are you looking for in a relationship? Like, if it's capable of being, like, a friend, then, you know, it's also capable of just being, like, an assistant. Yeah. And just bouncing ideas off of you. Secretary. Secretary, yeah. Nothing will ever replace a world class secretary. Let's talk through Eric Newcomer. He, on AI applications, he says, the next big thing in 2025 will be in the world of artificial intelligence where it's going to be cool to be a GPT wrapper again. Consumers and businesses both need help figuring out how best to use already very powerful language models.

1:05:20So we're going to see a bunch of applications crop up that help people get the most out of these models. Startups will build sales motions, integrations, customer know-how, et cetera, and won't need some huge technological moat to justify their existence. Of course, no one will want to call their company a wrapper. Think more GPT refiner. These companies will get data particular to their use case, do some human reinforcement learning, and deliver an easy-to-use product that leads the horse to water instead of intimidating empty textiles. Yeah, you're basically building the interface for the model.

1:05:49Yep. That makes sense. AI-generated content. Let's go to Demir at Index. He says the next big thing will be video generation models. Video is the ultimate form of creative expression and how we produce it will fundamentally be transformed as a result of next generation models. Yep, I agree. Have you played with Sora yet? I think I have access because I'm GPT Pro, but I haven't actually done it. I think it should be useful for our editors to pull B-roll and stuff, but other than that. Make the most unhinged slot B-roll. Some of the slot B-rolls, the question is when is it helpful to illustrate something?

1:06:27and usually i feel like you want a very specific shot but it can be i'm ready for somebody to make the the um somebody just needs to fully lean in uh i don't endorse this but it'd be funny uh the the ayahuasca visualization engine with sora where it just takes you through the giga sloth like mental journey of an ayahuasca yeah um let's just keep moving uh scott belski always sharp he says the next big thing in 2025 will be top ai talent shifting from working in companies pioneering the latest and greatest ai to taking leadership roles in the industry that benefit most from ai uh i won't go in further but that's interesting it's basically you know right now the top AI talent is working at AI companies, but then eventually it's like, Hey, could you have a bigger impact if you went and worked at a company like Flexport, right?

1:07:22And like became a leader in the, at the intersection of AI and logistics, right? Oh, let's go to Dara, uh, in the not AI category. The next big thing in 2025 will be a counter movement to AI content overload, bringing, bringing focus back to human curation and authenticity. Infinite AI generated content is still in its wow and novelty phase, but anytime there's abundance of an asset, the pendulum swings to the other side where people appreciate the scarce assets that come with quality, which in information's case is trust. As trust becomes scarce, influence will concentrate among select curators and experts who can use AI to scale their validated perspectives while maintaining credibility.

1:08:03These curators will have unprecedented reach and impact as they'll be able to maintain personal connections at scale through AI-enhanced interactions while preserving the authenticity that made people trust them in the first place. Interesting. Dara, always sharp. Nicole Wishoff. You got to know what questions to ask. Yeah. Nicole Wishoff says, the next big thing in 2025 will not be AI as the main character. Bets have been made and there are many hot takes on commoditization and models. The physical infrastructure will be the really important conversation. Energy, data centers, and the Trump admin coming in.

1:08:37more thoughts will go into how we power ai not the outcomes of ai which has dominated all of 2024 that's a good thing um uh let's go to gary tan the next big thing in 2025 will be startups of 10 people getting to 10 million arr in less than 18 months with less than 5 million raised this is why i mean it's hard to imagine any company better position than yc yeah um i could yeah it's probably one of the greatest business models of all time. It's fantastic. Product. So I like this one from, from Michael. Lightspeed. He says the next big thing in 2025 will be the return of the product oriented founder.

1:09:21The magic of AI technology that led to instant PMF for so many companies is starting to wane. What's needed now is exceptional products that solve real problems and the teams that can natively build them. So yeah, I think I've seen that. I think, I think we've seen that in the last six months or so where, founders that had been building something and maybe exited like jordan jordan singer are now getting back in the game starting from scratch thinking in a very ai native way uh there's another one here on glp ones the next big thing will be a second win for glp one drugs is from nan lee at dimension already a blockbuster product in obesity and in diabetes headed toward 50 billion of annual sales remember the other prediction we saw there was 100 size gone 2x this class of medicines will be further bolstered by new research findings first off there seems to be no limit to what diseases glp1 biology is linked to as a label expansion studies continue to create strong signal in everything from sleep apnea now fda approved to chronic heart failure i saw that so there's a a week ago yep at the amon it's a very nice hotel yep i saw uh this individual who i spoke to at one point very large and i just kept thinking like seemingly like uncomfortably large and i was thinking like why like there's still it seems like being overweight will become somewhat of a choice but some people are still going to just choose to not because you want to physically intimidate your opponents yeah be a size lord exactly um maybe that's a good prediction wilmanitis puts the weight our for our for rock gotta mention in here the next big thing in 2025 will be hemp-based thc the u.s market for delta 8 thc and other hemp-derived cannabinoids has increased by a whopping 1200 percent in just three years going from 200 million to 2.8 billion uh i think marijuana should be banned banned uh but uh anyways um delian i like arthur co-founder at varda and partnered founders fund says the next big thing in 2025 will be regular landings on the moon of equipment to prepare for people shortly thereafter love that i love that i mean we said we should send some full podcast studio up there just to get just to get ready the first podcast studio on the moon it's great let's see what else we got ipos gokul rajaram at marathon says the next big thing will be tech and ipo markets booming Agree Big tech earnings Chad Beyer says The next big thing Will be Mainstream adoption Of agents In large enterprise Leading to increased Earnings And quarterly beats Resulting in Continued stock All time highs We love quarterly beats Among hyperscalers I love it Should we close With our own predictions Let's do it We asked 24 billionaires For their 2025 tech predictions And here they are Mark Andreessen Gets hair transplants Hence, artificial intelligence will get better.

1:12:18That's the best prediction possible, artificial intelligence, because it seems like you just can't miss on that one. Exactly. And predictions are all about, it's not about saying cool things. It's about being right. Exactly. Speaking of being right, Bitcoin hits 25 million per coin. I think we got that one in the bag. Keith Raboi becomes a mass monster and gets his IFBB Pro card. Big. Most of the major cities will be replaced with vast pleasure domes used exclusively by the excelsiates who are the neo-upper class while the displaced hordes of lower class depth groblers will live underground in tiered cities endlessly toiling away for nuggets of neoplasmid.

1:12:59Do you know what that's from?

1:13:03Venture capitalist formally becomes a slur in the Oxford English Dictionary. I love that. Databricks IPO prices above$147 a share. You gotta have some. You just kind of pull the number out of the hat on that one. 50 % premium to last price, I think. Underperformance of European VCs results in mass famine and chaos on the continent. Most EU countries backslide into feudalism. Love it. I think that's on the back. As long as it remains a great vacation destination for hardworking Americans. Yes. Yeah, it's like our Disneyland. Elizabeth Holmes has a stunning comeback. I think that's in the bag. venture-backed defense tech companies collectively rack up over 100 000 confirmed kills well on our way mark zuckerberg gets really into lawn care i think the bro arc of zuckerberg is like lawn care he got into grilling he got into watches cars cars minivans you know steak he got big in a steak yeah he's i think he's gonna go precision rifle series prs long range long distance custom rifle builds that's that's definitely he needs to buy an f1 team that would be a good like why does meta not have like meta yeah racing like that would just be fantastic meta has the best meta has the best advertising network of all time he should buy the nfl the nba the wwe the ufc and f1 all of it not just a team the whole thing yeah uh there's two gps at tier one funds will go to jail i think we know what we're talking about there.

1:14:35Virtual reality will have a major moment. That's exciting. That's exciting. After years of financial mismanagement, the all in podcast will declare bankruptcy and be acquired by private equity. That one is sad. That hurts. We hate to see a good podcast go down, but they lost their top dog. They lost their star. Their absolute dog. And the revenue has just been too low. Yeah. That's the problem. They're not going to be the most profitable podcast without, with relying on events for revenue. Yeah. A major investigative journalist will write an expose on humiliation rituals at venture capital firms.

1:15:12We've heard a lot about those. Ramp will continue to offer a seamless corporate card experience to the best private and public companies on earth. Big game hunting replaces skiing as the go-to VC off-site activity. You know, we posted this before all the chaos at Vail. You know, you're not hearing a lot of chaos on the Serengeti. There aren't a lot of lift lines to go hunt a tiger or a lion. So it seems like an obvious trade. Big game hunting. We're going to do a brother's big game hunting trip at some point. For sure. Another VC will be fired for not being able to hold his liquor. I think we know who we're talking about there.

1:15:48Yep. But there is the blackout to fund manager pipeline, which still exists. Yep. The new Tesla Roadster will finally ship, and it will have a naturally aspirated V12 and a gated manual. Let's go. I'm excited for that. I'm seriously considering putting a reservation down on the new redster. I think it's going to be awesome. It's a good buy. I think this is the year he's going to deliver it. It's been forever delayed, but now everything's clear. Stocks at all-time highs. He's got all the approvals and stuff. He needs a new halo car. It would just be so sick. I think he's letting the Cybertruck hype play out.

1:16:24Yeah, it's going to look so good. The Cybericon will look like a Cybertruck Huricon. That'd be awesome. That'd be wild. I really hope he takes the Cybertruck aesthetics into the Roadster. I don't want the Roadster to look like the old Roadster at all. That's true. Or the Model S. If he makes a very Tron-esque. They all look exactly the same, and they look super boring to me. The Cybertruck, I think, looks sick. So take that. A very Tron-esque steel. Yeah, that'd be so good. That would honestly be, if it felt more like a Lamborghini than a futuristic Lamborghini. Yeah, it shouldn't look like an Elise.

1:16:58Yeah, that makes me want to, what's the actual? I think you put down like 10K or something. Yeah. But the whole thing is like you could just put money in Tesla stock. YC will fund a company that makes humanoid robots with guns for arms. I like that. YC has been getting more into the military industrial complex. We love to see it. LPs finally start refusing to back GPs that wear shorts in a business setting. Good to see. That's a rough one. every tech podcast not releasing daily episodes will fade into obscurity in the face of relentless competition from the technology brothers fact check true yeah it's not even as much of a prediction it's just a fact yeah ai agents will cause homelessness in san francisco to fall to zero percent but their methods will be harshly criticized by the public oh what's going to happen there deadly brian johnson will die in a hail of gunfire during a raid on a top secret government biolab that contains a fountain of youth elixir what did we miss let us know dm us if you have predictions and that concludes our we never miss predictions for 2025 we have to die we gotta we gotta let's take a quick uh okay let's take a quick break welcome back to the technology brothers still the most profitable podcast in the world la is still burning down we're still podcasting we have some breaking news though mark zuckerberg has announced that meta will be relaxing the what do you call it censorship i guess hey guys we're not dialing back the censorship and we got kind of out of control the announcement video was so funny because zuck has this style where he's just like a direct to camera he's like hey guys i just want to give you an update and normally it's like you know we're really excited to announce like creator monetization but with this one it was just like oh my god it's getting so much more extreme and it's just like we're not gonna penalize people for you know talking about politics anymore and it's like okay that's pretty reasonable he's like we're gonna have this community notes feature and we're gonna let that do a lot of the work so it's community policed and you know we're we're not like like the the the automated systems make a lot of mistakes it's like oh that's reasonable He's like, oh, and by the way, we're moving our trust and safety organization from San Francisco to Texas.

1:19:12To the great state of Texas. It's like, oh, my God. That's like a bomb going off in terms of cultural change. Yeah. Wild. But all of that is just a sideshow to the real reason why we need to talk about this story. And clearly the real reason why he made the video. Yes. 100%. it's because he needed to show off his beautiful$1 million Grubel 4C handmade one watch. And so we have a post here from Didi. He says, Zuck was wearing a$1 million watch in his community notes announcement video. Nothing says, I understand the culture shift of the community more than a watch that costs more than most people's houses.

1:19:50That's true. I don't know if he's joking, but that's true. It's like the era. This is authentic. He's not messing around. He's a billionaire. He should have a million dollar watch. Why not? And it's a cool story. And we're going to take you through what makes this watch so special and why it's actually fine and cool and great. And it's awesome. It's a celebration of his success. Yes. Meta success. Yes. And watchmaking. The numbers he's put up. Not just a billion. 1.5 trillion. The big T. That's how much value the man's created. Capital T. I was trying to run the numbers. Anybody that creates a trillion dollar company should wear at least a million dollar watch.

1:20:28as their daily driver. Yeah. Period. Arguably should be. Just for his wealth. I don't know if you can find a watch, maybe on Timu. If you make$100 ,000, the equivalent watch as percentage of income is like a five cent watch. Like he spent 0.0 % of his wealth. I would actually like to see him utilizing the real estate on actually both watches. Yeah. And also you got to ice this out. Yeah. He should definitely be icing this out. Flood it. Ice out the handmade. With the top tier diamonds. Flood it. No lab grown diamonds. No, no, no, no. Straight from the earth. Exactly. The most expensive. Organic, farm to table diamonds.

1:21:10It's got to be in the 10, 50, get into 100 million. Make the, what's the watch? The hallucination. You got to make that look like a Cassia. Yeah, yeah. Make it look like a Cassia. Okay, so the Grubel 4C Handmade 1. It's a 43.5 millimeter in white gold. It represents the pinnacle of old world watchmaking techniques in a modern era. Priced well into the hundreds of thousands of dollars, often cited around or above$800 ,000. I saw one for sale for$906 ,000. Giving it away. Interestingly, there was a news article that said it was a$900 ,000 watch. I found it for$906 ,000. Let's put them in the true zone.

1:21:50I want a community note. Put them in the true zone. Community note. I want a community note on it. there are only two or three produced each year within the realm of hot horology or high horology it occupies a level of craftsmanship exclusivity and finish that sets it apart from either from even from other superlative luxury watches there's incredible rarity only two to three pieces made per year each requires 6 000 hours of handiwork it's crazy too because now every product manager in the valley is going to be trying to get this watch yes and the question will become are they going to increase their allocations because you know there's going to be people banging down the door saying please make this watch i work at i work at uber i'm a product manager i make a couple hundred thousand dollars a month i want you know a nice piece that i can wear to work uh and yeah so have you seen the other grubel forces they're incredible the the non the non handmade so no no no uh they i think they're all well they're all handmade but handmade one is is this specific model look at this one dude it has a it has a physical model of the world it's like three-dimensional you gotta look this up we'll put a picture up on the video but um it it has a picture of the world that rotates to show you like what time it is across the world that's wow so amazing incredible it's incredible but the traditional method over 95 of the parts are fabricated using centuries-old fully manual techniques making it distinct from even most hand-finished pieces yep time-intensive components the escapement lever alone can take one and a half months to create.

1:23:33Yep. Uh, three, the three years of full-time work go into producing each watch an incredible investment in time. So these are very rare, fewer than three pieces per year. One of the rarest series produced watches in the world, typically quoted around 800 K 95 % handmade aside from the Sapphire crystals, pivot jewels, gaskets, strap spring bars, and the main spring. Every single part is executed by hand. And have you ever seen any of these videos breaking down like how these individual independent watchmakers work it's like they actually have every single tool like they need to like file down oh oh we need a gear yeah let's make it from scratch it's crazy the escapement lever that's like with us yeah podcasting we need a new microphone make it let's make it from scratch we really should get some like handmade handmade there are some actually one of my friends from high school his dad that was their business they made uh handmade microphones for record recording artists yeah and when you listen to like you know oh like yeah like the rolling stones use this microphone yeah and it's just like actually like the top tier that was like his uh high school job was like helping assemble stuff very cool uh it has a tourbillon and train wheels that take 600 times longer to produce uh i actually think in the era of just ai slot products these like ultra ultra or handmade, like it will become cool again for somebody to say, I'm going to hand make wine bottles.

1:25:00And this is why you can't write this off as just like, oh, it's just rich guy shit. Because Zuck is a technologist and watchmaking is in some way a pinnacle of technology. Like we didn't have the ability to make this. It's just mechanical. It's not computer science. But there's something that's, when you look at a really fine handmade watch, you're realizing like an expertise in craftsmanship that you want to bring to yes even the ad platform software like that that's the same same concept um the dial and finishing the minute track and seconds sub dial are executed in true fired an animal enamel requiring multiple firings at 800 degrees celsius uh the silver bridges known as malacourt in french they feature a frosted finish achieved by repetitive dabbing with a stiff wire brush.

1:25:55The copper content gives these bridges their soft golden hue. Mirror polishing, every bridge and wheel includes expertly polished bevels. Many feature sharp inward angles, which are extremely challenging to master. Each screw goes through 12 different manual steps and can require around eight hours to produce. Finishes vary between black polish and fired blue steel, all color matched meticulously. incredible a one-minute tourbillon made of 69 parts the tourbillon i gotta get a tourbillon watch for sure yeah it's so sick it originally i believe the tourbillon was designed to offset the uh i think it was in pocket watches maybe wrist watches too but uh if your watch is sitting there at an angle there's gravity on it in one direction yeah and so that would throw off the timekeeping and so the tourbillon was uh spinning to offset that a little bit um now there's other ways to to build a watch that keeps time more accurately even in the mechanical realm um but the tourbillon is still just like a fascinating thing to look at and with this watch the tourbillon is actually exposed so you can look at it from the from the face from the uh from the dial incredible yeah uh you got to have screws that take at least eight hours to produce in your watch else what are you doing uh the large balance is free sprung and adjusted in six positions beating at three hertz the hairspring is shaped by hand to include an over coil minimizing positional air has a 60 hour manual wind which is quite robust given the large tourbillon assembly golden chatins traditional pocket watch style chatins uh hold each pivot jewel an homage to 19th century techniques while also aiding in serviceability.

1:27:42And the base plate on the reverse side features a gratis main or hand-scraped finish. No two plates are identical. There's a ratchet wheel, a year plate, name plate. Oh yeah, that's a really fun thing. It says the year that it was made on the face of the watch. And so one in rose gold, one in white gold, showcasing multi-metal accents. Each watch was also inscribed with a year and number denoting its place among the two or three made that year. So you can instantly look at your watch and know exactly. It's kind of like with those, like the super rare sports cars, limited allocation. They will say, okay, this is number.

1:28:18Describe on the engine. Well, yeah. I mean, even for like, you know, like a somewhat limited run, like a Murcielago or something, people will look at the VIN and they'll track all the VINs. Are you familiar with like VinWiki? Have you seen this? Yeah. So people track down all the VINs and then they'll know, okay, there's 2 ,000 of these cars made and then a lot of times people will track down the VINs and realize that there's actually a lot less of them that people thought because they crashed or they were sent overseas or something and that can drive the value up but something like this you know you look at the you look at the the number right on the watch to remind you how exclusive it is I love it and the thing for me is he clearly was very particular about choosing this watch for this announcement you don't you don't throw this on by chance you don't wake up in the morning and say I'm gonna you know you know you're you really it's a very intentional decision but with zuck it's thinking about all the watches that he could have that he brushed over yeah and chose not to put on this morning and i and i want to know about this could have won the cubitus completely cubitus cubitus would have been as quite the statement would have been quite the same would have really a lot of people wanted to see him throw on an fp jorn yeah which he has and it's beautiful but V.C.

1:29:30Braggs was talking about this. Wanted to throw in the F.P. Journe. But the F.P. Journe is still an independent watchmaker. Francois Paul Journe is obviously a fantastic watchmaker. But it's a little bit more well-known than something like this. And this should just be a wake-up call for tech executives broadly. I agree. That you need to be taking clocks more seriously. Yes, yes. Take time more seriously. Yeah, this is the thing about a watch. People say... Even Elon, in many ways, talking about unregretted user seconds. he's really making a statement around clocks and watches and time. And a watch doesn't tell you the time of day.

1:30:10It tells you the time in your life. And so for him, what is this moment? Where is he in his life? He's at a pointless life where he can wear something like this. And this symbolizes where he's at in his life. And that's an incredible place. That's meaningful. Making incredible signings. it's comparable only to itself i love it epitomizes the devotion to genuine handmade craftsmanship nearly everything is done by traditional techniques seldom seen in modern watchmaking are you okay uh yeah i think we just got an evacuation order so probably gotta hit the road okay well it'll be a short episode i mean we will be on not exactly not exactly the shortest I think we still clocked.

1:30:55Subscribe. We still clocked a couple hours. Follow us on X. Follow us on YouTube. Follow us on Spotify. Brothers, I'm sorry to cut the timeline out of this episode, but we'll be back tomorrow. And in my defense, there's an evacuation order at my house. Yeah. And I can't in good conscience continue to record. And we have some great polished pieces going out on X. These are the Brother of the Week Award, the Reply Guy of the Week Award, the Size Gong, the Personnel News. We've stopped doing those within the episodes. We record them before. We edit them down. And they go out exclusively on X. They're exclusive clips on X.

1:31:32And so make sure you follow us there. Turn the notifications on. And make sure you reply. There's a big, there's going to be about 50 reply guys of the week this year. Yep. And many of those people will go on to join the Forbes list, to start trillion dollar companies, to raise mango seed rounds. and do many great things to win the Kentucky Derby, right? To win UFC championships. We can't get out of here. This one is encouraging to you. You might be worried about your house burning down, but we're going to Josh Steinman, and he's saying, good morning, we are going to win. And that's a great place to close it.

1:32:10Thank you, brothers. We'll see you tomorrow. Bye.

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(00:00) - Predictions for 2025
(01:18:03) - Clocking Zuck's Watch

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