$9M Buffett Dinner, AI Monets, Patek Scarcity, Late-Career Founder, WSJ Mansion Section, 𝕏 Timeline Reactions | Rahul Sonwalkar

27:49But to answer your question, like the image model is really, really good for like graphics, single slides, and then you can combine that with like a code harness to generate like multiple slides. Yeah. Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. Jordy, anything else? Thanks for coming on the show. It's been an honor. Yeah. Thank you guys. It's great hanging out this morning. Likewise. Yeah. Have a good rest of your day. We'll see you soon. Another one. The big news today is of course Bernie Sanders and AOC introduced a bill to pause all AI data center construction. I want to know within this bill how they are defining AI data center.

28:28Of course, GPUs are graphics processing units. You wire a bunch of them together. You can do AI. You can do machine learning. You can render CGI films. There's a lot of different uses, and I wonder how they're grappling with that definition. But 300 local bills have been, 300 plus local bills have been filed. Half of planned 2026 data centers are facing delays or cancellation. Each one brings billions to local economy, says Gary Tan. The people who say they want American jobs are trying to block the biggest job creation engine since the interstate highway system. Sanders and AOC are straight up sabotaging the economy, says Nick Davidoff.

29:12No spy or a rival country agent can achieve what local useful idiots can. And so people are going back and forth about the data center construction ban. I wonder how this will pencil out. Elizabeth Warren says, a single AI data center uses as much electricity as 100 ,000 households and utility companies are passing the upgrade costs to you, not to the trillion dollar tech giants that of course was attempted to be addressed by the ratepayer protection pledge, but it is early days. And so we'll have to see how that pans out. Yeah. And this is the same bill that was introduced in March, but it's continuing to pop up again, obviously, as they try to move it along.

30:02But it hasn't passed committee yet. It doesn't obviously have like bipartisan support. Yeah. Very unlikely. And there's a lot of geopolitical considerations. considerations. Anthropic put out a big essay today around different resolutions to U.S.-China competition in Age of AI. Obviously, they are very aggressive about don't lose the lead, continue to build data centers. But the nimbyism, the noise complaints, the environmental concerns, Like all of these things do have to be addressed in a democratic society if we are to move along smoothly. Tyler. Yeah. So just for like the definitions, how it's defined.

30:49So a data center is defined as a building that has more than 20 megawatts maximum power capacity or total peak power that are used to deliver 20 kilowatts or more to a single server rack or to use liquid cooling to individual hardware components. mm-hmm so yeah I'm just wondering if we're gonna get some weird some weird workaround where okay instead of like one big building you get a thousand smaller buildings that are also it also says uh like a building that's contiguous or adjacent to another building that's okay so I think they kind of that so I have to put some like trees in between them or something I don't know I just like every time there's a law people will find a way around the law and so uh I'm very interested to see how this winds up changing.

31:34It could change it for good. It could be like, okay, yeah, clean energy, and it's underground, and it's not noisy, and it doesn't create... It feels like the real issue at debate is passing the cost on to people who don't benefit, a negative externality, which the government has been internalizing negative externalities since its inception. And so there's certainly a good outcome, but it will be a heartbeat. Almonds are catching some heat from JCal. Oh, yeah. He is showing almond production versus data center water consumption from 1999 to 2026. And yeah, everyone has been saying for years, even prior to the AI boom, just how much water almonds use.

32:24This was particularly top of mind when California was in a massive drought. And then you drive through different parts of California and it's just almond trees as far as the eye can see. And so anyways, almonds catching strays. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, you look at this and you think about the growth rate in this year. Like you can see the blue line is ticking up and you can see that the red line for almonds is flatlining. And so if you are extremely aggressive about counting the ooms and you project this out a couple years, you can see these two things flip. But of course, there are ways to avoid situations like that with water use increasing, such as what Blake Scholl proposes, which is closed loop cooling and booms superpower turbines that don't need any water.

33:16And you can avoid all of that. But the whole water debate seems like not the focus of the Sanders AOC proposal. It seems much more focused on generation and upgrading the grid, which is expensive and is real. Everyone knows that data centers do use a lot of power. No one's saying that the high energy intensity is fake news, even though the water debate was a little bit thrown. You know, it was sort of quickly debunked. the energy debate has not been debunked. And so there is a need for more clean energy, more power and more grid upgrades that are not visited upon local communities. The big question that we were trying to answer, and we're going to try and get someone on the show maybe next week to talk about this is like, what is the, if you were attempting to build a data center that had 80 % approval.

34:18Like, what would that look like? What is the Ezra Klein abundance vision for a data center? It's probably powered by clean energy. It's probably somewhere very remote. Brandon was talking about the 40-minute commute. The 40-minute commute is something that many Americans do, and it is not insurmountable. And he was just reflecting on if you're ever driven in or around Las Vegas, If you drive 40 minutes in any direction, you get to a lot of empty land where certainly a big building is not going to be an eyesore. You're not going to be able to hear 60 decibels from 20 minutes away. And there is a lot of land, but that hasn't been the default construction methodology for a lot of data center constructors.

35:04Yeah, it's like the TSMC plant in Arizona is like basically 30 minutes north of like central Phoenix. Yeah, it didn't seem like there were any houses. Yeah, so you basically go over a little hill, and then it's just completely empty land. There's a massive fab. It's thick. Yeah, I like that. I learned an interesting fact, which is that Apple has a secret fab. They have a silicon fab in Silicon Valley. They bought a fab for, I sent you the, where did I pull this up? I had to fact check this because I saw it, and it was framed as this secret, terrible thing. It was not that it's not that scary. It's they bought it for 18.2 million dollars.

35:46It's a 70 ,000 square foot facility owned by Maxim previously. They bought it maybe in 2015. And it's controversial because they were fined by, I believe, the EPA for for some mislabeling of waste and air emissions controls. but it was a pretty small fine. It was something like a couple hundred, maybe$200 ,000. And it seemed like they might've just had a mistake. They brought down the hammer on them. Yeah. Well, I think it was like, you know, the air conditioning duct was slightly misconfigured. It was not like a nuclear waste spill, like destroying the whole town, but it was controversial, obviously, because Apple wants to be as clean and environmentally friendly as possible, which is why I lean into they don't want a massive, like they're not even a scaled chip manufacturer.

36:42This is a prototype facility. They manufacture between 600 nanometers to 90 nanometers, way different than what's happening at TSMC with two and three nanometers. So it's not a secret facility in the literal sense. The secret fab framing comes mostly from critics and whistleblower coverage, not because it was unknown to government or industry. It was licensed. EPA says the Apple facility on Scott Boulevard. So maybe that's your next trip, Tyler. You're going over to, where is it? It's in Santa Clara, in Santa Clara. On Scott Boulevard in Santa Clara, generated hazardous waste and had RCRA violations in 2023 to 2024, which they made fixes for.

37:28And they paid a$261 ,000 penalty. It's$32.50 Scott Boulevard, if you're in Santa Clara. Go stop by. Let's give it up for Scott. I didn't know you had a boulevard named after you. That's very funny. So the interpretation at the time was that it could support prototyping, testing, or heavy R &D, not mainline production. So your iPhone is not made in Santa Clara. It is made abroad. It is made right here. Right here. Yes. Apple designs the chips while TSMC and Samsung manufacture actual advanced processors. and the acquired fab does not necessarily mean Apple would manufacture its own chips. So interesting story.

38:10Anyway, we covered this a little bit yesterday, but Figma crushed their Q1 46 % year over year revenue growth, accelerating for the second straight quarter. They had net dollar retention rate of 139%, our highest rate in over two years. And they raised their 2026 revenue guidance. yeah dylan says design matters more than ever i agree yeah i agree you're good everyone's going to be building more software at some point we're going to need to make breakfast this morning we were looking at we were looking at a website uh i showed this website to rahul and he said uh oh that's the uh that's the classic like taste is the new moat website just like the website that looks the tasteful looking website that looks like every other website which inherently means It's not yeah, the prompt was like make it look tasteful and it like ripped some shameless thing.

39:07It didn't feel inspired and It is it is interesting 14 % today back up to 12. Yeah and 12 billion fantastic a year ago fig would be trading at 30x rev on those numbers But since all the algos have zeroed out terminal multiple. It's only up 8 % says Dolly Bolly and yeah people are going back and forth on this but uh two guys making sandwiches at the wawa loudly discussing their profits on semi trades just now is that a top signal i was looking back through the timeline and martin screlly called the top on semis uh i think may 1st something like that uh and tyler's shaking his head he thinks we're still going up up only right i mean he was effectively wrong right i mean it's been two weeks it's like yeah if you call the top i expect you to call the top of the day like you know he's like it's a it's a rough call yeah i think you get like you get like plus or minus a month that's a long plus or minus like two months even yeah two months yeah i mean like the big the big macro narrative on semis is like uh is like a multi-year okay so end of june is is kind of the cutoff yeah and end of end of june i'd be like you need to update this.

40:28You need to give us an update on whether or not you still think early May was the top of the semiconductor cycle. There are some companies that are in semis that are trading ahead. I mean, Intel, we were talking about with Doug O 'Loughlin yesterday. Intel has a lot of good news and good plans, but now they have to actually execute. There are a bunch of other semiconductor stocks that are essentially, Usually, the multiple on forward earnings is actually compressing. So Micron, I think, was one that's up 790%, but forward earnings are up 2 ,000%. And so they're going to be growing a ton next year.

41:06They have a ton of demand. And so the market's moving on that, but they haven't realized that yet. And so, I mean, I think that they will, but the question is how far can they go? How far can they take it? Well, we're waiting for the situational awareness Q1, 13F. Not yet. Okay. Not yet. We'll have to figure it out. But it should be in the next few hours. Well, the ex-AI co-founder, Agor Babushkin, is planning to raise up to$1 billion at an up to$5 billion valuation for a new AI research startup with General Catalyst possibly leading. Why is Tyler laughing so much? Raul had a good post earlier.

41:47Oh, yeah? Okay. GC has a very high moral bar. So I don't think Igor will be continuing to work on Ani. Maybe. And some of the other features that the XAI had been focused on. Might be pivoting. I think that whole debate did sort of quiet down. Like we were wondering if there was going to be an escalation, if we were going to see Reggie and Eric like going at it or Hamant jumping in. but it's sort of, you know, it felt like a lot of the A16Z folks came out and put the line in the sand. Just say you've never closely followed a rap battle before because there can often be a one or two day gap. They're in the studio.

42:31They're in the lab. They're in the lab. They're in the studio. Cooking up the next response video. I would love the new meta to move away from the vibe reel, the podcast appearance, the tweet, and the one minute polished scripted ad firing back attack ads This is great. I do think we should get more into just straight up political attack ads. Like Mark Andreessen wants to fund a robot dog. He wants to put your dog out of business. General Catalyst is for real dogs. And Andreessen is for fake dogs. Vote, like raise money from General Catalyst. Mark Andreessen wants to shut down your local veterinarian.

43:11Turn it into a dog robot workshop. Exactly, exactly. Like there's a certain aesthetic to the political attack ad that we all know and love. And no one has taken that and appropriated it as a form of marketing. So greenfield opportunity over there. Well, the research startup from the XAI co-founder is called River AI. I like that name. I think that the— Drop the AI. The recursive, the general intelligence, applied intelligence, accelerated intelligence. There's one that's like indescribable, ineffable intelligence. Like it was getting a little crowded in that name space. Unconventional. River just sounds good.

43:57I like it. I think it's a good name. How about conventional intelligence? Conventional intelligence. Midwit intelligence. No one, you know. Mid-curve intelligence. Yeah, you do sort of have more left-leaning AI labs, more right-leaning AI labs. There's no good old boy Southern intelligence, like a model that's explicitly trained to focus on a cold beer, a lifted truck. That's true. You know, getting your boots in the mud. That's true. Kind of like country intelligence. Country intelligence. Country intelligence. Country intelligence is an opportunity. Where it just constantly, it can't stop talking about cold beer.

44:41Yeah, yeah. Like, it'll just slip in. Cold beer on a Friday night. You did great on that task. Why don't you go have a cold beer? You deserve a cold beer. No one's working on country intelligence. It just can't stop. It just, it's like goblins, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Or telling you to go to bed. It's like, it just is like, how about that new F-150? Yeah. It's like, what does that have to do with what we're working on? Yeah, exactly. It's like Dario talks about having a country of geniuses in the data center. I want country geniuses in a data center. What about a country of Ford F-150s in a data center?

45:14Exactly. I want country geniuses. Well, this is an interesting data point from David. He says the entire NIH annual budget for neuroscience research for all scientists across the U.S. is about$3 billion a year. now there are something like dozens of neolabs that have all raised zero to a billion within months of being founded and they're all doing the same thing. I guess the solution here is to give three billion dollars to a neolab working on neuroscience. The solution is always more to for profit. Has anyone thought about going the other way? Well, I do think a lot of these neolabs could end up being non-profit eventually eventually you never know uh well you know what's not a non-profit benchmark capital uh because when benchmark invested 6.7 million in ebay in 1997 the auction company's valuation was 20 million dollars by next spring the company was valued at more than 21 billion dollars the value of benchmark stake had grown a hundred thousand percent in less than two years i'm doing the chad sound effect i know i i can see i can i see i know what's happening it's actually better without the iem's somebody somebody commented on spotify yesterday that uh that somebody needs to talk to jordy about the soundboard yeah and then a bunch of other people commented and said uh yeah that he's not using it enough sorry sorry that's like asking a musician like hey don't make music yeah you know uh what what how would you react if if some enterprising author journalist came in and said hey we want to write we want to write the definitive story about uh tbpn we're going to profile tyler and jordy and john ben uh brandon the whole crew we're going to tell the story and uh and you're like that sounds amazing.

47:17I would love to be in a book. That's so cool. Like what we're doing so important. And then you're like, what's the book going to be called? And the author's like, I'm going to call it E boys. Would you be down for that? Or would you be like, Oh, damn it. I kind of was hoping you would refer to me as a man. I like this for an adult. You like this? Yeah. Also the subtitle, the subtitle is hilarious. Tall men. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Sort of you had me in the first half there, but then the but then the subtitle comes back because it's the true story of the six tall men who backed eBay, Webvan and other billion dollar startups.

47:56It's the book about Benchmark by Randall Strauss. I've read this book. If you haven't read it, it's probably been a review. Six or seven years. I've read it.

48:07Benchmark's financial exit on eBay was known as a kegel in the VC industry. That's like the term triple-double being associated with Oscar Robinson because of this historic season average. In June 1997, when the internet auction site was in its infancy, the executives each pledged 6.9 million shares as collateral for two$750 ,000 loans from Benchmark Capital. Their stock wasn't yet publicly traded and the shares were valued at 11 cents apiece. I remember meeting Bob Cagle at Benchmark in 1999, says Trent Griffin, and talking to him about eBay. He believed in early that online marketplaces could be important.

48:44Yeah, I'd say so. Investing in a category creating business required variant perception. Consensus doesn't identify unknown unknowns a priori. Anyway. All right. Interesting. Let's pull up this video you posted this morning that is completely flopping. Yeah, it is flopping. But it's funny to me. We got one. Nick, thank you. Nick Carpentino said, Carpinito says, banger. Can we put it on the big screen? If we play this, we're going to get demonetized and we're going to have to cut it out. But you can just go enjoy it on my timeline. I can send the, without the music. Nah, it doesn't hit then. Anyway, it's Fast and the Furious plus Jerome Powell.

49:19It's fun. Anyway, moving on. Who was, Scott Besson was on CNBC talking about meeting with the Chinese vice premier. they're saying it's one of the wettest and purplest appearances in television history i suppose uh i'm not saying that but uncle doomer is i guess uh we're going to talk about forming a board of trade for the bilateral trade between the u.s and china and we're going to talk about the board of investment that will be responsible for investment in non-sensitive areas that's a lot of jargon uh look being purple on cnbc that's on cnbc or whoever his lighting technician is for this call-in if you're calling into a television show or tbpn uh check your lighting put a big light off to the side right here make it nice and soft make sure you look normal adjust the white balance these things can be fixed ask chat gpt if you're having this is this on Air Force One?

50:19Yeah, it's probably in a very temporary setup, like just curtain, flag, what else do you need? Like, it's not that much. But also powder, I don't do this because we have a temperature controlled facility and we're, you know, like take showers before the show and dry off. But if you are moist, you can use some sort of powder that a lot of people put on before big interviews. It's sort of one step away from like a full hair and makeup setup. But it is recommended if you are moist and you're doing press. These are the things you learn from doing content. Anyway, the CEO of Patek Philippe, Terry Stern, says, you don't come to Patek Philippe because it's more expensive.

51:05Well, why do you come to Patek Philippe? We will have to figure it out. It's in today's Financial Times. I want to read it on paper, but you can follow along on the actual article. So, oh no, this is the wrong one. Here we go. You don't come to Patek because it costs more. What's up? Chad's loving the casual show today. Yeah, they're enjoying it. They're saying we should order food. Oh, should we? We try not to eat. We try not to eat. No, eating doesn't really work. You get a lot of dead air. It doesn't quite work. But, you know, it does work going to Patek, Filipe, but not because it costs more, but because of their approach to retail and production, apparently.

51:44These are stormy times for luxury watchmakers. We've talked about this with Quaid from Bezel, talked about all of the tariffs and whatnot. But the waves have not yet crashed into Patek Philippe. Do you say Patek or Patek? Quaid says Patek. I think the real ball knowers say Patek. But the war is there, but we are still selling, says Terry Stern. Stern is the fourth generation of his family to lead Patek. The privately owned high-end watchmaker does not report on its financial performance. And the 55-year-old Swiss scion of the Stern family is not about to break with convention and go into detail.

52:23But Morgan Stanley estimates its revenue has jumped by more by about 25 % of the past two years to, how much do you think they're making per year? Gross revenue. Gross revenue for Patek Philippe. In a full year, what do you think they're making? Wow, I actually have no idea. Is it like$5 billion? Not bad. $3.2 billion is the estimate from Morgan Stanley. You divide that by, what,$100 ,000 on average for a watch? Because they have a lot that are higher, but they have some that are$60 ,000,$50 ,000 or something. But not moving a ton of watches. But don't forget, Patek Philippe doesn't produce that many watches.

53:02Patek produced about 75 ,000 watches last year and expects output to remain at the same level. We have good balance around the world and we have been very cautious about allocation. If one part of the world doesn't work well, we can always shift the watches. Patek is clearly active in securing its own retail footprint. In March, it acquired the multi-brand retailer Bayer Chronometry for an undisclosed sum. Bayer, a Zurich-based jeweler founded in 1760, overnight success there, is thought to be the world's oldest watch retailer and oldest Patek dealer. Stern said it would become the brand's fourth-owned and operated boutique-style salon, adding outlets in Geneva, London, and Paris, and will only sell Patek watches.

53:45But he's quick to quash suggestions. The move marks the beginning of a retail grab in the same vein as Rolex's acquisition of the luxury watch retailer Boucherer. I don't know how to pronounce that. In August of 2023, I'm a watchmaker, not a retailer. I still need the retailer. Patek has taken a strategic approach. Are you doing the voices on me? I imagine you are. I like made one joke about it being too much and people were like, oh, John doesn't have a good sense of humor about it. I'm fine, don't worry. According to analysts of every watch, which I guess is the semi-analysis of the watch industry, the Rolex move generated revenue of almost$600 million last year for Switzerland's largest watchmaker.

54:28This is the certified pre-owned business model that Rolex launched in 2022. 10 % of the global watch market for secondhand Rolex watches. When everybody started, they thought they could make a lot of money. Then they realized it's not that easy. Stern doesn't rule it out, though. I'm thinking about something, but it's too early to talk about it. A vague posting. He's vague posting about potentially certified pre-owned Potex at a retail store. you go and you buy something can't afford can't get an allocation the latest watch or something comes in that's special and needs to go on the second hand second market he can take a piece of that for now he seems content with the shape and strategy of the business morgan stanley's figures indicate that the top four privately owned switch switch switch watchmakers patek philippe together with rolex ap and richard mill controlled about 50 of the luxury watch market last year up from 37 % in 2019.

55:23There's consolidation in the market. Smaller players are fighting for survival. I don't need to have more brand sharing this market, but he does recognize the problem. I don't want anybody going down either, but a lot of people will be out of business. Look, it'd be a shame if my competitors were destroyed and burned to the ground. I don't want that, but it's very likely it's going to happen. Some of those struggling with increased competitive pressures have already turned to new markets to generate sales, particularly India. And also the Swatch collab might be an answer to this. Stern won't be following though.

56:03Why should I go there? It's too early. Most of the Indian clients that want Patek are living in London or traveling to Geneva in the Middle East. So it's not my priority. What access they might have to his watches when they travel is also unclear. The tourist doesn't really have the chance to buy a Patek, he says. The retailer has to sell to the local client. So he's like, the folks in India who want a Patek can just go to Switzerland. But then he's like, but also I will never sell the tourists. You have to be a local. So I imagine he's talking about like Indian billionaires that have homes in the Middle East or Switzerland or Geneva or London.

56:39Yeah, if you have an enemy that's getting into watches and they don't really know the game yet, tell them to book a trip to Geneva because all the major brands have their presence there and stores, and they should just go there. If they want a nice watch, they should just go there and ask for one. I'm sure they'll be very successful. Interesting. So the U.S. is shifting away. The Patek's U.S. retailer network has been reduced by two-thirds to 38 stores, but it still accounts for 16 % of the company's total revenue. So they're not doing too poorly. There's a certain category of clients who may be like this.

57:18He says when asked about the perception of his watches as elite status symbols, but you don't, but you don't come to Patek because it's more expensive. He says his family's company is not aimed at the kind of customer who wants to flaunt an expensive watch to command attention. This is not me. They won't be doing the iced out from the factory anytime soon, I suppose. Does he talk about the cubitus? No. Almost two decades. No. Dodged entirely. Didn't talk about it. They're not asking hard questions at the Financial Times. Yeah. Real missed opportunity. I don't know. The cubitus, I feel like the cubitus was advertised in here, though.

58:01Isn't it on the back of this? I feel like I saw it in this financial time. There's a lot of ads in here. I don't know. No, Xenia. Cubatons. I feel like I saw an ad for Cubitus. Yeah. 30 eggs. We got a lot. You want the Cubitus ad over there? What about this? In here? In here? No? What about in the journal? Is it in the journal? I feel like I saw somewhere. Anyway, we should go over to the journal because the mansion section has a very interesting story today about a 40-year marriage built one gut renovation at a time. If you want a successful relationship buy 10 houses over four decades and constantly be renovating.

58:52I think there's a lot of truth in this. Let's read the story. I'll give you my take. So, one Oklahoma couple spent decades and roughly$14 million buying, redoing, and selling eight properties around Tulsa for their ninth production they've built from the ground up. They say, for them, it's an adventure. Anne and Mark Farrow are a real estate wildcard. Always at home, never settled. Over 40 years, they've gutted and lived in eight houses around Tulsa. The ninth they built, together, their house transactions have totaled about$14 million. in a portfolio market by reimagined floor plans and high-end finishes.

59:33Their latest, a 7 ,200 square foot build draws on everything they have learned since their first renovation in the 1980s. Now, even the Pharaohs wonder whether the journey is over. This house would be hard to duplicate, says Mark 67. Six, seven. who the Wall Street Brain Rod Journal added again turning turning 67 in 2026 nightmare brutal they also profiled an entrepreneur who's 67 who just started a company weird but company is ripping doing well never too late to start a company let's get him some let's have him on the show we'll we'll read that later yet resisting another fixer-upper won't be easy for the couple who rejected being called flippers, instead identifying as serial renovation lovers.

1:00:24I go through withdrawal without a home project, says Ann, 63, who's retired. While nine home projects would send most couples into mediation, the pharaohs view logistical nightmares as a shared thrill. Their secret, radical honesty and speed. For us, it's an adventure, Mark says. These are real operators. No, this is a team. This is, you're looking at the Collison brothers, the family business builders of real estate. We should scroll through the actual images of the house because they got started pretty small,$86 ,000 in 1986. They bought the starter home. They sold it in 1993 for 97 ,000, held for nine years, only made 10%.

1:01:10But that was where the adventure began. in 1986 with a Cape Cod style house. It was 2 ,000 square feet. Interior was complete with a lavender formica countertops and a wet bar. Their first construction project closing in an office to make an extra bedroom. Interesting. You know how alcohol sales are falling off a cliff? Yes. And there's like, oh, who was it? Derek Thompson had a good post about this. and he sort of enumerated all the different reasons why alcohol is falling off a cliff. He posts a lot. He posts a lot of good stuff. Where can I find it? Alcohol, alcohol. Wow, he does post a lot.

1:01:56He said something. I'm like, days by, okay, here we go. So off the top of his head, secular anti-alcohol trends, GLP ones, post 1970s rise of helicopter parenting, although I feel like you can drink on a helicopter as long as you're not piloting it. Reaction to the binge drinking spike of the late 20th century. There was a binge drinking spike in the late 20th century? Oh, that was like the CKY, you know, Johnny Knoxville era, I suppose. That probably led to a lot of that. There's also a power law in binge drinking, right? Yeah, they say, what, 1 % of the binge drinkers do 99 % of the binge drinking, something like that?

1:02:38No, I think it's actually like 10 % of people that consume alcohol consume like 90 % of the alcohol. This is true even for the, like, you think about the market for Budweiser or beer brands, and you think about, like, the college party getting a 30 rack. But, in fact, the vast majority of the revenue is driven by the, like, Johnny six-pack, which is, like, a guy who gets off of work at five and picks up a six-pack on the way home, on the drive home, and doesn't buy in bulk because if he gets the 12-pack, He won't be able to stop drinking after six and he'll be hung over for the work day to the next day And so it's six pack every single day and this was like a thing in America for a very long time But it doesn't seem to be happening.

1:03:24You gotta keep those agents running at all times You're been set. All right guys. Yeah, let's cut it out. Let's see so phones are apparently killing teenage partying Because everything is on video. I suppose you get so you don't want to be in like compromising situations in the surveillance state supposedly a surge in young adult fitness dancing clubs down running clubs up and the general rise of health maxing culture among both liberal yuppies and maha devotees so huge collapse in drinking among uh high schoolers it fell in the 1980s it was 92 percent of 12th graders who had ever consumed alcohol this year 47 percent that is remarkable there's also a substitution effect between alcohol and cannabis significant proportions of cannabis use led to less alcohol sort of mixed bag there and I think non-alcoholic beers getting pretty good is a small part in this too so there are lots of reasons why it's down and I wonder if we will see the next generation of real estate development stay away from the wet bar like you like as you look at houses wet bar is not at the top of a lot of people's lists you know they want home office because of COVID work remote.

1:04:40So they want sauna, uh, pool, uh, playroom, uh, maybe movie theater. No, I think I'm weird on that one, but, uh, wet bar. Clearly movie theaters still, I would say movie theaters above wet bar for most people. Yeah. But wet bar used to be like, you gotta have it. Like it was in a, it was in a 2000 square foot house. Like it, like it was in like a starter home that cost$86 ,000 and the, and the builder or whoever lived in this house was like well we got to have a wet bar here so let's do that 2026 was the year the wet bar and home home data center swapped oh you think the home data center thing is going to take off the tiny boxes are going to be stacking up yeah yeah i was i was watching a reel from uh markiplier home cluster yeah yeah do you know cluster in the basement do you know the story of markiplier no okay youtuber filmmaker uh he online i know he had a crazy Exactly.

1:05:37So Markiplier, he does these let's play videos for indie horror games. So he would essentially like a Twitch streamer, but on YouTube and would upload the full let's play. He was listed by Forbes as the third highest content creator on the platform in 2022, won four streaming awards, spun off his YouTube fame into a notable media career. And then in 2023, he signed with UTA and starred in a series called Edge of Sleep and then made his theatrical debut directing, producing, writing and starring in and basically financing horror film Iron Lung in 2026, which was a breakout hit for a$3 million budget.

1:06:22The box office is 51 million dollars real narrative violation on can youtubers cross the chasm? They can if they bring their audience into the theater But Hollywood doesn't want to play nice with them at all because he still had to sort of go around in this like weird way Where this seems like an obvious thing if you were a studio executive that you would have been able to predict this But they didn't in this case and he financed it himself anyway Markiplier was talking about the process of doing one particular visual effect shot with, I think, a lot of blood pouring everywhere. And so he's not in the AI era.

1:06:59He's also not in the practical era. He's going to be using visual effects for this. Simulation of fluids, which is extremely computationally intensive. You have to create the system that shows the gravity, simulate the gravity, simulate all of the different 3D meshes, where the geometry is, where the blood will be spilling in this particular scene. And he was working with an outsourced visual effects house that was very, very costly. And most importantly to him, it required a lot of back and forth. And there was, he mentioned, it was an international group. So there was a little bit of like lost in translation where he would say, I want the blood to be more red or darker.

1:07:39And then they would say, okay, we'll re-render. And that would take days. And then they would come back and he'd be like, no, I actually want it to be splashier or thicker or something like that. And so those notes were going back and forth. And he wound up converting a bathroom in his house to a supercomputer. Like he basically got a whole bunch of racks and a whole bunch of GPUs and wired them all together and was able to do the rendering his own. And he actually put in 220 volt power into his bathroom. Like it's where you charge an electric car. And he said that the electricity was actually somewhat expensive, but it sped up the development so much That even though this bringing it in house process was extremely expensive, it was still worth it.

1:08:20So I think get rid of the wet bar, put in a home data center. If you're building a new house and you want it to, if you're doing a flip, it's going to be the hottest trend of the next couple of years. A place to stack up Mac minis, IT cabinet otherwise. So they moved on to the heartbreaker. They were moving up. 1992, they bought a house for$173, sold it two years later for$225. A little bit more of a bump, 3 ,000 square foot traditional brick house. Then they get into the rambling ranch. They actually stepped back in terms of price. This one was only$140 ,000, but they sold it in 1999 for$250 ,000.

1:08:53Then they move into the architectural anchor. And then there's something interesting. They were in this estate. Mark bought a house. I bought a rose garden. They paid$785 ,000 in 2007. That's right before the housing collapse. So they were probably underwater for a little bit, but they wound up getting out with a good gain in 2014 for$1.675 million. And it was 6 ,600 square feet. The house needed a gut renovation. They added the best of everything. That included a basement sports bar. They went back to the bar. No data center back in 2007. Four televisions. I don't know. Local compute existed then.

1:09:34You could have a land center. You could be landing. You could be playing cod. You could be playing rust. Outside, they enlarged the Rose Garden. Then in 2014, said, why did I even answer the phone? Six hours later, their real estate agent brought an innocent looker by the house, and they committed to a sale. So then they dramatically downsized. In 2014, they moved into an apartment for$320 ,000. They sold that for a gain of$375 ,000. Then they moved to the penthouse in the same building, got renovated again. And then finally, they moved to the Tulsa Picasso and then they built their massive new home, which they actually bought the land for just$740 ,000.

1:10:16But then they put a construction budget of$5 million, a huge ratio of house to land prices. But they have paid for everything, prepaying for windows and HVAC units a year in advance just to stay ahead of the supply chain. The result is a home that balances grand scale with the warmth that has become the Ferro's trademark. The interior has walnut floors, mahogany trim, and a dramatic marble fireplace with graphite and amber veining. Though it does have what Anne considers her biggest ever design blender, a swim jet, which creates a current for swimming in place in the pool. It's a treadmill pool, and she doesn't like it.

1:10:56She says, I just don't like using it. Have you ever used a swim jet? Have you ever felt the urge to go on a swimming treadmill? I've never been a big swimmer. I did rent a house at one point. More of a surfboard guy. What about Wave Pool? That would be an option. Yeah, there is this company that makes a device that allows you to mimic paddling on a surfboard. But you can't stand up and actually surf? No, it's just for training this motion. and yeah, it's pretty, it's pretty, they pitch it as like you live, you don't live near the beach and you're going on a surf trip and you want to be in peak.

1:11:36Oh, so it's truly for working out. Okay, okay. Well, anyway, did they do a wet bar? Let's find out. I don't think so. They did a baby kitchen for catering, a wine room leveling up and an office that feels perched in the trees. The couple remains unsentimental about the bricks and mortar. We'd never move back into a house we've sold. We're always looking to what's next. For now, they say they're having too much fun with their current house, hosting parties, golf friend get togethers, board meetings, and even a wedding to think about what's next. Those who know them best are skeptical. I give them three to five years.

1:12:14There is this one elusive neighborhood that keeps slipping through their fingers. I predict they will do a house project one more time. famously there was Bob Hope Adam in the chat I used a swim jet it was like trying not to drown in a controlled manner yeah doesn't sound he Bob Hope was a radio star talk show host traveled the world did USO tours always on tour world famous must have been very difficult for his relationship with his wife, but they worked together for decades. And I think part of the secret was that they were constantly renovating this massive estate in Burbank. And they would renovate it from start to finish, back and forth constantly.

1:13:02And he had this amazing office there with a vault that you could walk in. And he had every joke that he'd ever written cataloged in filing cabinets there and had a whole studio basically where his writer's room could come to him. And then eventually when they got older, they built an elevator. And this whole time they had a project that they could work on while he was also doing his project and everything else. So never bored. And it stood the test of time. Anyway, have you heard of Smashbox Cosmetics? Has anyone heard of Smashbox Cosmetics? What is the story of this company? Because the co-founder has one of the greatest names I've ever heard.

1:13:41His name is Dean Factor. Dean Factor. It's a powerful name. And he is selling an estate in Los Angeles for just shy of$50 million. It's in Sullivan Canyon. It was inspired by the architecture of classic California ranches, including San Ysidro Ranch, where John F. Kennedy and Jackie Kennedy honeymooned. I didn't know JFK was up in San Ysidro Ranch. Cosmetics Scion, Dean Factor, and his wife, Shannon Factor, knew they had their work cut out for them in 2011 when they purchased a neglected piece of property in Los Angeles' Sullivan Canyon. The modest dilapidated house on the roughly eight and a half acre parcel, that's a huge parcel for this part of town, was filled with asbestos.

1:14:25The driveway was cracked, the landscaping was barren and dry. For six years, it was kind of used as a dog park, so it was just beat up. Do you think robot dogs would do more damage? Because they're heavier, right? And also the EMF might fry all the local fauna. All the local bushes are just getting roasted by the Boston Dynamics radio waves. Just as it's stepping through the grass, the grass is just wilting and dying around it. You can put a microwave on top of the robot dog, plug it in, just be running it constantly. They're like, it doesn't pee on the grass. There's going to be no damage. Have we studied it?

1:15:02Do we know that that's the case? Have we looked at the data? Have we looked at the data? So we looked at the data. We looked at the data and it's actually 10 times worse than just having a dog running around. I don't know. The robot dog's only 75 pounds. Okay. So that's like a big dog. That's half my dog. Yeah, there's dogs that are bigger than that. Okay. Are there any other environmental damages that could happen from letting a robot dog run wild on an abandoned property? Let's figure it out. Undeterred, the factors brought the land for$8 million, according to property records. Unable to salvage the home, they kept knobs, fixtures, and other hardware, using it in the new roughly 17 ,000 square foot home with a private lake.

1:15:41Private lake. That is insane. Fruit trees and medicinal herb garden. Now, with the two oldest of their five children in college, they are listing the property for 50 mil or 48.5. Dean's great-grandfather co-founded the cosmetics company Max Factor. What are we doing here? That is an insane name. Dean co-founded Smashbox Cosmetics, which Estee Lauder acquired in 2010. He's now a private investor. Wow. The factor spent years rehabilitating the land, installing irrigation, regenerating the soil, replanting seeds, and caring for trees. It looks fantastic. Their eight-bedroom home was inspired by the architecture of San Ysidro Ranch, which we mentioned.

1:16:22It does look fantastic. So, ooh, the downstairs is pretty cool. The basement-level entertainment hub. They call it the lounge. It has a wet bar. It also has a pool table and a game center. Nice little rustic vibe. This feels straight out of like Montana or something. And the rest is very, very modern California. Really, really nestled in there. The property has indoor and outdoor fireplaces, private hiking trails, and a sports court. Over the years, every inch of the house and land has been enjoyed by the children, friends, and many animals. So they're letting the animals run wild. No robots on site.

1:16:58We needed extra quiet spaces for studying and working other amenities include a gym and elevator and a massage and yoga room and This last one the tree house magical little inspiration portal set in nature. This thing's cool I like a big that is that even a tree house that here's a house. That's adjacent to a tree I feel like a tree house needs to not touch the ground and be built entirely around the tree to qualify Slarping right yeah that because you see these houses where they put the tree inside the house This is like this is more that than a full tree house. It looks like the trees going through the porch.

1:17:31Yeah Yeah, so yeah, I I think this is a little bit of false tree porch is a tree This isn't a tree house. This is a house. That's built adjacent to a tree Nice try nice try could be a great place for a home data center though. It could be it could be inside of a tree Do you think you know how like with AI a lot of people are building like useless stuff like you see a lot This happens all the time where someone will like vibe code something and you'll be like but I could just use the real thing Do you think like during like the metallurgy? Revolution people were like I made a tree out of iron people were like, but why can't I just use it?

1:18:12I can't I just have a tree you were like, it's an iron tree and then they had to explain like oh We're gonna have to be more creative here. We have to do something new with this And then people were like, okay, like rails for trains or, you know, boilers for steam engines. They were kind of doing that. They're like, I made wood out of metal. Yeah. I think there's a little bit of that. You got to be, there's a lot of when a new technology comes around, you just sort of reinvent everything. This was the same thing with a lot of, you know, you see it in media all the time where the new platform comes.

1:18:42And if the old thing on the new platform doesn't quite fit. Did you see that Matthew McConaughey once exiled himself from Hollywood? and lived as Mateo in Peru. No, is this real? For 22 days without electricity. Ooh. He said, I needed to get my feet on the ground. So I clicked out. Boom. Go to Peru. I needed to find it to check the validation. I knew I had it. I just had to go prove it. Hmm. I wonder. But I did question now that I just got famous, I've got all this affiliation for this and that and the other, and I'm trying to decipher which part's real and which part's BS. I needed to meet people who knew me as Mateo.

1:19:22And at the end of 22 days, the tears in their eyes and the tears in my eyes and the hugs we had on the sadness and happiness of saying goodbye were all based off of the man they met named Mateo, who had nothing to do with the celebrity. It reaffirmed my own identity that, oh, I still got it. This is based on me. There might be Alpha And going to Peru Adopting a fake name And living for 22 days without electricity Yeah Because Every time I hear Matthew speak There's always There's always some wisdom that comes through How did he pull this off? You missed your opportunity To go to China this week And just simply post a picture And say thank you for thank you to China for allowing me to be here in your incredible country during this incredibly significant visit but it's not too late to go to Peru when did he go to Peru?

1:20:26do we know what year this was? let's find out because he's married with three kids and I'm imagining it's a big ass to be like honey I'm going to be gone for a month and I won't have electricity good luck with three children but clearly worked out they're still together so you know it landed wait it was in 97 okay that was that that was that was before he was he was married uh anyway uh another option if you're feeling burned out at 67 you don't want to renovate your house start a business this entrepreneur started a business at 67 says it's been much better than retiring so many of My retired friends are bored, but I'm constantly learning new things and meeting new people.

1:21:11So my late father-in-law, this is a piece by Daniel Oxt. He says, my late father-in-law loved orchids. They're saying Matthew is LARPing as Mateo. He was LARPing around. He was LARPing it up. My late father-in-law loved orchids, and in his decades-long passion, he built and maintained two large greenhouses. At an age when most people were retired or worse, he was still breeding new hybrids, knowing full well that they wouldn't blossom for years. He wasn't a man to sit idly in death's anteroom awaiting the Grim Reaper. I take heart from his example when I wonder in moments of doubt or exhaustion, why in the world have I launched a demanding business in what otherwise might have been a leisurely dotage?

1:21:58In some ways, the nature of our undertakings is similar. Mine is a publishing venture, but I was more motivated by the flowers, which is to say the books we bring forth than any prospect of financial gain. So he's launching a Stripe Press competitor. Shots fired. Call Tammy Winter. Tell her to double down because there's a 67-year-old who's coming and he's going to eat Stripe's lunch potentially. No, it seems like this is more of a labor of love. Starting a business is a lot of work, but for an older entrepreneur, that can be more of a feature than a bug, he says. Some of my friends retired from impressive careers now find themselves bored or underoccupied.

1:22:41Meanwhile, I deal with a continual barrage of challenges, great and small, most of them welcome. People assume that I'm the one keeping my little business going, but the opposite is probably equally true. Starting a business in retirement may sound like an oxymoron, but the idea has quite a few virtues. First of all, it's up to you if you want to do it. You don't have to apply for a job. You don't need, you didn't worry about age discrimination unless you plan to fire yourself in favor of someone younger and cheaper. You can decide for yourself whether to keep things small and casual or build yourself a modest empire.

1:23:14Either way, you'll be just as busy as you want to be. Wasn't Workday founded by a senior citizen? I believe the founder was 60 something when he founded that company. There are a number of breakout companies that have been - How old was he? Workday founder? He said senior citizen, I think. 65. 65. So yeah, he was, I don't know. Dave Duffield. Do they move the senior citizen designation when they move the national retirement age? Dave was born, the founder of Workday was born in September 21, 1940. Wow. Imagine being born during World War II and having the opportunity to build Enterprise Sass. To build Enterprise Sass.

1:23:55It's electric. Electric. It's like you see the moon landing when you're 30 and you're like in 50 years I'm gonna make it easy. I'm gonna do my own moon my version of the moon my version of the moon landing to pay employees what what age what age does senior citizens start let's say about that 65 okay, so that has not been changed But senior did he had started PeopleSoft at age 47 Wow legend legend there's another good thing about a retirement business it doesn't really need to make money as long as it doesn't lose much in the case of my publishing venture i considered launching it as a non-profit but i didn't want a board or anyone else telling me what to do doesn't want to wind up in oakland in a courtroom dealing with stuff if he winds up coming up with the next generational technology doesn't want to defend himself running it as a business means you You have skin in the game and an easy way to keep score, even if remuneration isn't the primary goal.

1:24:57Whether you make money or not, your business will still deliver all kinds of additional benefits. For instance, nothing could be more educational. Even though I have written lots about business in my career, I was astonished when I launched my own at the age of 67 to discover the range of tasks and skills involved in running a small enterprise. You may think you are a book publisher or a soap maker or a dealer in vintage telephones, but inevitably you are also a bookkeeper, a shipping clerk, a marketing specialist, and a navigator of government regulations. Interesting. Well, I like this idea.

1:25:31I think it's a good idea. He says, I wish I had started this venture years earlier, but was busy earning a living and writing books of my own. Now our children are well launched and my wife, a passionate lifelong reader, has time to help old age subsidized by Social Security Medicare turns out to be an ideal opportunity for a stunt like ours and never mind the nearness of the end all of life has lived in the shadow of mortality humans have always thrived there and starting a business can help are you thinking what I'm thinking Jordy I don't know hostile takeover leverage buyout we make friends with this guy we bring him on the show we say oh we just want to we love what you're doing inspirational story we'd love to just like acquire just a small interest in the business.

1:26:15And then we'd like to lever it up. So what are your stance on including ads in books? He's like, well, you know, I've always thought I wanted to maintain the purity of the text. Yes. The author intended. I go, yes. Okay. Pure, pure slop book. We're going to use open source models that are run on commodity hardware. Just let, we're going to figure out how to run it on that old Xbox and just let it cook for a week to churn out a slot book. And then we're going to stuff it with ads and monetize this puppy, take it to the moon, flip it, sell it, sell it onto the next, to the next person. Sorry about your business.

1:26:55I really do. I joke about it, but I really do think that ad supported business books is a great idea. Uh, specifically, I think it'd be a great idea for one company to release a bunch of books and basically charge, you know, a dollar a book or whatever whatever the actual cost and then print it around the book so you can imagine like sort of a book it's like e-boys but it has a jack a ramp jacket oh okay right yeah maybe you could get old run books that are out of print bring them back in some sort of anthology or something i'd be interested in that uh well i need your review of the new lamborghini Lamborghini says they are proud to announce the Lamborghini Phenomeno.

1:27:42I cannot pronounce this. Roadster. It's the most powerful open top ever created by Lamborghini. Limited to 15 units. Look at this, Jordy. Tell me what you think. I'm looking. Okay. Powered by an iconic 1080CV. Sounds like an NVIDIA graphics card. Naturally aspirated V12 hybrid HPEV. Sorry about that. Got a little bit too much Diet Coke. Engineered with an aerospace-inspired carbon fiber monofuselage, advanced active aerodynamics, and capable of zero to 100 kilometers an hour in just 2.4 seconds, the Roadster delivers pure performance with uncompromising driving emotion of V12 Symphony. So pretty odd in 2026 to release a supercar.

1:28:34and not talk about onboard supercomputing. Hmm, okay. What kind of like models can I expect to run locally while I'm driving, right? So that's the first question. And ironically, Tesla has great onboard compute and it is a lagging feature. Have we talked about this? Like, it is so crazy that the LLM like chatbot race is so intense and you open up the app store and it's ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and then even Grok is in the game. Meta has Meta AI now. Like everyone is training a foundation model and or wrapping something and having a chat interface. And every company is like, has an answer, has a solution.

1:29:22Apple is like the most far behind. They still have a ChatGPT integration. They're solving the Gemini thing. And there may be like a year or two behind in terms of like the knowledge retrieval use case that is in such high demand. And if you have an iPhone, you get the ChatGPT app, the Claude app, the Gemini app. Like, you check that box really, really quickly, right? And so every tech company, Microsoft Copilot, like, every company has had, like, an answer to, like, how are you integrating LLMs? How are you answering questions? What's your chat interface? Like, Ramp has a chat interface. It's really good, actually.

1:29:57And it works. And it's implemented. And they're not five years behind, ten years behind. But every car company is like 10 years behind Tesla. It's crazy that they haven't been able to figure out how to just like clone FSD into Rivian. And GM has Super Cruise, which is nowhere near as effective because it only works on certain roads. And so you can't just use it on a normal street. And then it'll be like, oh, well, we mapped this part of the freeway and this part of the freeway. But not the transition between those two freeways. So we're disengaging. like every self-driving technology in any other car is just 10 years behind Tesla still and I don't know why data advantage I don't know I mean just throw the cameras on something and and like like every other company has figured out how to get data for LLMs like do a new web scrape like just go and spend the money on it but there's something where the LLMs with the super intelligence narrative the coding narrative like all these things are much more easy to underrate.

1:30:56Whereas I think if Ford said like, we actually need to spend Tesla level money to get on the trend here, people would just say, well, people are still buying Mustangs and they don't really care about self-driving. If they wanted self-driving, they just get a Tesla, but it seems like a huge miss. I don't know. Also, I mean, a huge opportunity to just like work with open pilot, which from George Hots, ComAI, like that system is better than everything else except for Tesla. and no one can figure out how to work with it effectively. Maybe it's a regulatory thing. It might be NHTS. Tanner says they're Laurel maxing.

1:31:29They are Laurel maxing. They are definitely resting on their laurels. They're blown. I did, yeah, I talked to a guy who owns a couple of Porsche dealerships and I said, do you have clients come in that tell you, hey, I love this, I love this car. I love the Macan, but it doesn't have self-driving. and he said no right now which i was surprised by because you look at these like commuter focused cars and you assume that commuters are going to start to care a lot but i think it's very i think it's going to be very location dependent so there's places like if you live in la friends in la that like can't possibly drive anything but a tesla because they want to be able to just set autopilot and forget it yeah but if you live somewhere where you're driving like five ten minutes today, then it just matters way less.

1:32:19Yeah. Yeah. Maybe that's it. Um, interesting. Well, um, what's your final say on the new Lamborghini, this limited thing, which I think is just, uh, like a, almost like a body kit on the Revolto, which is the V12 platform. Like it has all the same specs. So it seems like it's a tuned and modified Revolto like they've done before with the Revanton, for example. So this is probably like a million dollar car. These special Lamborghinis have never been interesting to me. What do you think? Do you like the design? I think it looks great. I like it. Better than the Roberto, though? I don't personally like Roadsters over their counterparts, but I think it's a great car.

1:33:01It's not the spec for me, but I'm sure it's the spec for someone. Someone in the chat said it looks like a McLaren. It sort of does. There's a little bit of that in there. Also, the colors are doing, if it was a yellow Lamborghini, I think you'd be much more tied to yellow. You tend to see these different colors on McLarens more often. Well, in other car news, Waymo is maybe going crazy or something. What's happening in Atlanta? So dozens of empty Waymos have invaded an Atlanta neighborhood and circled a cul-de-sac for hours with no passengers. and Brooks Otterlake says, oh, so it's wrong for cars to invent religion.

1:33:44And I don't really get that one. Is that like going door to door evangelizing or is that? It's like a cult, like, oh, they're circling. Oh, they're circling. Crazy. Yeah. And then apparently someone put out like a yellow sign to try and like deter the Waymo's and that only made them more aggressive. I don't know what's real here. I'm all over the place with this one, but very, very weird. I thought that Waymo, the ratio is like one to four or something like that on teleoperators, maybe something along those lines. So you would think that the teleoperators would see this and intervene. So something must have gone wrong in the organizational structure.

1:34:23But these things are bound to happen. At least no one was hurt. But it is annoying if you live there and you just see a ton of Waymo. Breaking from Raghav in the chat. But SpaceX accelerates IPO timeline targets June 11th pricing on the NASDAQ. So they went with, it says June 11th and Reuters. We're less than a month out. And interesting that they're going with NASDAQ. This would, I imagine, get them allocated into QQQ really quickly. and I know that was a priority. A bunch of ETFs. Yeah, during this process. Institutional buying. But let's see if there's any. Can't wait for the filing. It's going to be so interesting to dig into the numbers.

1:35:13Yeah, it's now aiming to flip its prospectus public as early as next Wednesday. Ooh, that's going to be a big day. With the Roadshow launch targeted for June 4th and a market debut as early as June 12th. That will be exciting. The process had originally been planned for around late June, around Elon's birthday. A faster-than-expected SEC review of the company's filing partially drove the timeline forward. The whole market is selling off. The NASDAQ is down 1.2%. Russell 2000 down 2.18%. S &P down 1%. And Dow Jones down 1 % as well. Well, the U.S. 10-year sitting at 4.59999999, something like that.

1:36:00Well, Bill Ackman is doubling down on MAG7 stocks that have sold off. He's going long. Microsoft, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, bets on Microsoft's AI ambitions with new stake. He says the tech company is underpriced and will disclose the stake in regulatory filings later on Friday. So Microsoft is up 3.62 % today. And Ackman said in a post on X that Pershing has started building a position in Microsoft. We will disclose a new position in Microsoft because Microsoft shares are down 15 % this year and have lost more than a quarter of their value since they peaked last fall. The drop has been part of a wider software industry sell-off and investor concerns over hefty investments in AI.

1:36:48The shares were little changed in pre-market trading. Ackman said investors underestimate the resilience of the Microsoft 365 subscription suite given its deeply embedded role across enterprises and highly attractive price value proposition. So if you look at what's happening with Figma and then you think about how that might translate to Microsoft 365 subscriptions, not that crazy to imagine that there's more resilience here than maybe the market is pricing in. Ackman cited Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI, which gives the software giant access to the startup's models and products, which he said he believed Wall Street hadn't factored in the company's interest in OpenAI, which has been valued at approximately$200 billion because of the 27 % stake.

1:37:34And with the trial coming to a close any day now, Jessica Lesson over at The Information was saying that it's all good news for OpenAI shareholders. The call she has, will Elon win his case against OpenAI down at 20 % today on the back of the closing statements, the closing arguments from both sides and Microsoft's lawyers. And I'm sure we'll have more to dive into on the court case next week as the trial wraps up. High Yield Harry says, I like how Bill Ackman's whole thing now is just buying MAG7 names that have traded off. There's a whole thesis on this. Yeah, so he did this with Meta. Are you brave enough?

1:38:15He did this with Meta based around the response to their CapEx guide. He did this with Google during the ChatGPT post. Did you see the new feature that Meta launched on Instagram Reels or Instagram something or other? It's called, it's in the DM tab and it's called like instance, disappearing photos, no viewer list, reactions and replies are private. So they made, they made something that's like more disappearing than stories, I suppose. So you can click through this stack of instance. And the whole idea that Adam Masseri was pitching was that they launch a product. It's very authentic. This was the original Instagram.

1:39:02It was like, oh, photos of the run clubs, right? And just like photos from your life. People would just hard post them on the grid because that's all there was. Then Snapchat came out with stories and all of a sudden stories were more ephemeral. And Instagram, of course, clone stories into the top feed with all the circles. But then those became places that were monetized and places where people were more thoughtful about what they posted there. And so you wound up with this again, the same anxiety over are you going to post that photo is it polished enough for the stories feed and so by launching instance instagram's trying to rebuild that casual sharing of their user base so that people don't just purely consume or pick between do i never post or do i go full editor professional camera setup you know scripted like full post because that's what's happened to stories everything is very very calculated but i don't know another reason to be bullish on On Instagram, Ben Thompson had a bunch of takes about why he's a perma-permabull for meta, is that every pixel of their entire family of apps is monetizable.

1:40:13They just have to choose to monetize them. And he opines that Mark Zuckerberg has never been that interested in ads. He likes products. He likes new technologies. But he's willing to post some ads to serve his other interests. Yes, yes. And I mean, he's been fantastic at launching ads and monetizing and everything's going well, but it just feels like it's not the core. Like there are some CEOs that would get up every day and say, not just Senator, we sell ads, but every day on the, or every quarter on the earnings call, talk about only ads and say, oh, the VR thing. Yeah, we'll address that when we can advertise in it because we are an advertising company.

1:40:55That hasn't always been the ethos of meta for better or for worse. but what else is in the timeline that you want to go through jordy uh another from high yield harry everyone loves the docusign has a quarter million employees don't it by the way can we talk about how accenture has 786 000 employees this is true the first one about docusign was was not yeah accenture does actually have 786 000 employees uh it's a lot that's a city's worth Yeah, there's this interesting, the latest Bayer thesis on the AI boom has hit the timeline. I think Axios summed it up well here. AI can cost more than human workers now.

1:41:40This is a quote from Unusual Whales, citing Axios. And there's an interesting bit here where if you look at the token spend at some of the tech companies, and then you match that with their stories about AI efficiency and layoffs, they're actually growing their total OPEX. So they might be saying, okay, we're going to lay off thousands of employees, shrink the headcount 5%. That will save us$2 billion in OPEX a year. But then you look at their token bill and it's 5 billion. Hopefully they're doing more. I think a lot of CEOs are starting to ask the questions about ROI on the token spend. And that will probably be the next big hurdle, the next big question on, Were you just running useless scripts overnight to token max or did you actually ship a feature that moved the needle and is conversion rate up?

1:42:30Is retention up? Is revenue up? Is profit up? This is the key question for anyone whose organization has flipped to the token maxing meta. It is very funny to imagine. Like when you think of KPIs, anything that is a cost, the KPI should usually be going down. And token maxing really flipped that. A slight aberration. But you would never at a startup say one of our KPIs that we're tracking is headcount and we want it to go up. You would never say one of our. Oftentimes founders can get a little too. Yeah. Sort of tying their own. Yeah. Oh, I run a 200 person company. Yeah. Oh, I run a 500 person company, you know, and it's like, okay, well, is that, is that the right size for your business?

1:43:15You want to be maximizing revenue and minimizing costs. If every single person in San Francisco left and Accenture brought their entire team to San Francisco, you would actually need to build more houses. There would actually be overflow. There would be overflow. If every person had basically one bed that currently exists in San Francisco. Wait, there's only 750 ,000 beds in San Francisco. 809 ,000 people live in San Francisco. Wow, that's not a lot. I always think of San Francisco. That's not a lot. I always think of San Francisco as like a city of 10 million, but that's obviously the greater Bay Area.

1:43:54Yeah, the greater Bay Area. Well, there's some bad news for the U.S. dollar. Hedgeye says the U.S. dollar has lost 30 % of its purchasing power over the last six years. And Brian says, damn, that's what I purchased my stuff with. Speaking of purchasing stuff, ChatGPT launched personal finance features. yes and this was in partnership with plaid right yeah i think yeah that's under the hood this is really cool because we were talking i'm gonna play around with it we were talking to zach about we were like oh like like i have to imagine that a lot of people are starting to use plaid alongside alongside llms to suck in all of their personal financial data and sort of understand what they're spending things on and and doing a lot of the you know there's a mint.com there there's different services that can do little pieces here and there.

1:44:47There's a whole service that just figures out if you're subscribed to multiple things. I have two Netflix subscriptions. Let me consolidate that down. Even just knowing, okay, you're spending a lot on gas now or groceries. Is this what you expected? All that can be helpful. And Zach was sort of quietly admitting that he has clearly been very AI-pilled in conjunction with Plaid and had been wiring up all of his personal finances to dashboards that he's been building. And so I imagine that a lot of that was brought into this product. So excited to see people play around with it and ask questions.

1:45:26There is a new partnership between Stoddguy and Bentley. Really? Yes. He introduced the Chalet Edition. Okay. What is this? Is this actually something - Can you think of a time where a creator partnered with a major car manufacturer for a special edition car? Yes. I can think of like the McLaren Senna, right? Yes. I was going to say the Dale Earnhardt edition Monte Carlo. Oh. All right. We'll pull up the Chalet edition. And then pull up the 2002 Chevy Monte Carlo SS Dale Earnhardt edition. Shodgai was in L.A. around Coachella. It's possible that his alter ego Colton was going to Coachella. We were trying to get him on the show, but the timing didn't overlap because he was podcast maxing himself with his own show.

1:46:21Explain the alter ego thing. Is he one of these single creators that runs two accounts? No, it's one account. One account. Oh, but he plays a character. guy. Uh, and then, uh, you know, this sort of like elevated, uh, kind of character. And then there's like Colton, who's like the, uh, neat, new rich, you know, new money, uh, character. Um, but I think they did an excellent job with this car, a lot of wood and, uh, and, and tan leather. Is this something that you can like, is this limited allocation? Yeah. They're making 25 of them wow and he's gonna sell 25 bentley's and how much does he make off of this 20 good question i bet this looks more like a million dollar ship deal not a yeah but probably a million dollar brand deal right yeah 20 no but it's a really it's a really smart i think it's great i i think it's a little derivative of the 2002 chevy monte carlo ss dale earnhardt edition but yeah let's pull let's pull up that yeah if i if i had to pick one i'm going dale earnhardt edition probably you know what i'd pick we'll see yeah pull up the 2002 chevy monte carlo ss dale earnhardt edition is that it that does not look like it no no that's an ai image or something that is that doesn't have the right wheels google it again Gabe says when tbp on nissan murano cross cabrio light oh that would rip i'll put this in here yeah this is the this is the image here we go stod guy uh yeah the the mclaren senna has there been another one i feel like i've been waiting i've been waiting for the for the murano cross cabrio lay to fall in value and they're holding strong they're holding strong John, guess the price on this.

1:48:2087 ,000 miles, two owners. It's a 2014. $20 ,000. 16 grand. 16 grand. They hit the floor, and they're only going up from here. You can get a white one. You can get a white one, a 2011. Okay. It has 137 ,000 miles for just under 7 ,000. There were rumors of a collab that might, I don't know. I want to know what you think if this would be a great partnership. But Lewis Hamilton, driving for Ferrari now, famous Mercedes F1 driver. He has been spotted multiple times. In his reveal that he would be joining Ferrari, he posed in front of the Ferrari F40, an iconic supercar. There have been rumors about a bespoke Ferrari project, dubbed the F44, which was supposed to be a modern V12-powered manual shift tribute to the legendary F40.

1:49:20It's allegedly been scrapped. It's still only in the rumor. It's been potentially canceled. But do you think that would work? Do you think that would be successful with him still racing, him still in the throes of his career? Would he need to retire? Would this need to be like a posthumous tribute at some point? What do you think it takes for a Lewis Hamilton Ferrari special edition car to be successful? I think you would have to win a championship. With Ferrari? Yeah. Otherwise. Okay. Can't just orifarm with Kim K on 80s vibe reels. You've seen that video, right? Yeah. So sick. Yeah. I think you got to win.

1:50:07You got to win. Well, um, what else is going on? Is there anything else? We talked about a lot of this stuff. There's, there's some bigger articles, but we can get to them tomorrow. Uh, all the longer articles we need to get to, um, 2014 Nissan Murano cross cabriolet for nine grand. It's only, only has 116 ,000 miles on it in one accident. How are you modifying it for the TVPN edition? You got a four owner 2011 with 109 ,000 miles for eight grand. I mean, these things are a store of value. I think we're actually kind of at the bottom of the J curve and we'll start seeing it tick up from here. Well, there's one more post here we should go through.

1:50:51There might be a few YouTubers be like, wake up at 4am and run. that's alpha no it's not look at apex predators they're all lazy bears hibernate lions sleep all day you know who wakes up at 4 a.m and runs squirrels don't be a squirrel hibernate sleep all day work like a lion and of all ravikant said it best um yeah it's good advice but depending on where you're at in life sometimes you do have to work up early sometimes you got to wake up early and you got to work really hard. Yeah. But 4am, maybe not, maybe not always optimal depends on your flow. Um, but in general, I think the, the YouTubers that say like, get some energy in your life.

1:51:38I heard, uh, one of these inspirational guys talking about like, if you want something, you need to use more of it. If you want more of something, you need to use more of it. So if you want more energy, you have to use more energy. If you want more muscle, You have to use more muscle. And it was sort of pithy. It doesn't apply to everything, but sort of you've got to spend money to make money. Yeah, the issue is if you wake up late, you don't get to start winding down when the sun goes down. You haven't earned it yet. Oh, sure, sure, sure. Night owl mode. Some people go night owl mode. Night owl mode.

1:52:12Some people go squirrel mode. Some people go bear mode. Just depends to each their own. I like this cartoon from D. Lip Rao, In Context Learning and LLMs. Tyler, you can probably explain this. So the man walks out with his robot to paint the fence, paints two full planks, starts painting the third plank, gives the paint bucket to the robot, and says, continue. The robot says, got it. And as you scroll down, what did the robot do? Repeated the pattern perfectly. not painting the third thing. Do you think this is solvable? It doesn't generalize. It doesn't generalize. That's the joke, I guess. Do you think this is possible?

1:52:53Do you think this is solvable? Yes. What time do eagles start hunting? What time do eagles start hunting? I don't know. Just after sunrise. Just after sunrise. What time do sharks start feeding? Just after sunrise? Dawn. Dawn, okay. So if you want to be a shark or an eagle, get up and get after it. Well, so what is P.E.? Penis enhancement. Andrew Reid says, send this to all your private equity friends immediately. Because they asked, what is P-E? Yeah. And he says something that's uncouth. All right. Well, that's a great place to end it. Yes. Is the flashbang working? I think so. Thanks for hanging out.

1:53:37Yeah. We will see you. It's been a really classic show. This feels like a fall 2024 episode. It's a great show. We hope you enjoyed it. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, sign up for a newsletter at tbpa.com. We will see you on Monday. Have a wonderful weekend. Another one. Yeah! Goodbye.