Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI's new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN

0:00So, we've been thinking more about the Super Bowl that's coming up. We've been thinking more about ads, the response to the ads, the back and forth with the ads. Rune had a good post here. Putting my media observer hat on. Anthropic ads are pretty brilliant because they're dishonest in a way that's only going to rage bait open AI heads and certain industry insiders, but are funny and striking to everyone else. When you're a call option, oh, calling them a call option, kind of a diss. Savage. Variance is good. Mario Kart Blue Shell. Are you familiar, have you ever played Mario Kart? Do you understand the Blue Shell?

0:38Not enough to get the reference. So I played Mario Kart, I think so long ago, Blue Shells didn't exist, but I've been playing with my kids. And I've since learned the importance of the Blue Shell. The Blue Shell, it targets just the first player, just whoever's in first. It's a great metaphor for what's going on here. When you're not in first place, you get the Blue Shell, you can take a shot at the leader without even needing to call them out. So you can just say, the category's bad. And everyone assumes you're talking about you-know-who. So I thought that was an interesting thing. Trey says, Sam Altman, the Koenigsegg collector.

1:11Yes, yes. That's that one. Yes, deep dive on car culture. Anyway, so everybody had a take on this yesterday. It was perfect in how much kind of controversy it generated. It was wildly entertaining. I wanted to kind of, I'll read through kind of like my updated take. Yeah. I got a little bit of - Processed it. Yeah, I got a little bit of pushback. I said they were playing dirty. Signal responded to me and said, not dirty at all. So I wanted to address that. Yeah, I was processing this more. We obviously watched some ads yesterday. We watched the Get a Mac campaign. We watched the Bud Light special delivery one, which is about Bud Light is in a castle.

1:49They get an order of corn syrup. They're like, we don't use corn syrup. That must be for Coors Light and other competitors. And so I was processing them. The difference there is that those advertisements are truthful. right? Like people that have had a PC have probably gotten a virus, right? So when Mac is like riffing on that, it's like, it's truthful, right? Yeah. And they had some data to back it up. It's not deceitful. I would say if I'm putting on my steel manning Microsoft in 2007 hat or 2003, I would say, hey, we do have Windows PC Defender. We're fighting viruses. And is it possible to get a virus on a Mac?

2:25Probably. Is it possible to not get a virus on a PC? Yeah. And on Microsoft's People are like, yeah, no one makes viruses for your computers because you don't sell very many. It's not very ROI positive. That's a good point. And then Bud Light's campaign was truthful, even though it was aggressive, in that you could look up the ingredient list of their competitors and see that they did, in fact, use corn syrup. And you can make your own decision on whether or not you like that ingredient, but they were just drawing awareness to it. And so my point is that I think that Anthropics ads are closer to political attack ads and that they're sort of intentionally trying to be deceptive, right?

3:02They haven't broken any laws. Yeah, no, no. They don't name ChatGPT. They're just sort of like throwing mod at the whole category. Yeah, so anyways, I said they were playing dirty. I got some pushback on it. I asked Claude. I said, Claude, how would you define playing dirty? And Claude said, playing dirty generally means achieving your goals through tactics that are deceptive, unethical, or that violate the understood rules and norms of a given context, even if you're not technically illegal. It's the gap between what you can do and what you should do. a few dimensions to it it goes into deception misleading others about your intentions hiding information or creating false impressions to gain an advantage these campaigns do an amazing job creating a false impression of of what ads in in lms are going to be like i do think the response just to chime in some random stuff but i think the response to the ads we were wondering like you know outside of the you know the the tbpn we love ads ads are fine and and that they're not gonna do anything weird.

3:57We're strong supporters. What will the public's reception be like? Will Claude skyrocket to the top of the charts because these ads are so effective? Will general consumers buy the line? Yes, the chat apps are gonna get weird with the ads or not. And I was scrolling on Instagram Reels last night, completely randomly. I was not looking for anthropic content. I think I followed the Claude account, maybe, maybe not. It just targeted me. It hits me with a vertical version of the ad. it's called deception i think something like that no violation violation is it's not called deception it'd be a little too on the nose i think there is one called deception there's a bunch they all have different names anyway it's called violation here oh yeah yeah i remember so people were like the the anthropic deception ad is deceptive yeah yeah yeah so violation pops up and it's this uh and it's claude ai and it has almost 6 000 likes even when it just got served to me i i my interpretation was like this is working, this is popular, this is, it's not just beautifully shot, it's well edited for vertical.

4:56Yeah, it's either really resonating or they're putting a massive amount of spend behind it or both. This is the funny thing. So in this ad, you see the guy struggling to do a pull up, he asks, you know, what's supposed to be an LLM, create a fitness plan for me. And then the fitness bot says, hey, you know what else can help? One inch insoles from Height Max or something like that. And it's like, this looks max, it's very funny. I scroll up. What's the next ad that meta serves me? An ad for a three inch insert. Three inch insert. And the ad is actually deceptive. It says the guy can go from five, nine to six, one.

5:31That's four inches. And so these are full shoes that have the inserts built in. And for some reason I got in, even though I'm not in the market for insoles, the algorithm just knows that I love these ads because they're very funny and they're very on trend with the looks maxing thing and so I get served these ads constantly this is all meta shows me is these is these height enhancing shoes because I think I actually clicked on them and was like digging in so you know you bought them right of course of course yeah I'm trying to get to seven feet I would be that would be good that would be good Tyler do you have something on this yeah I was just gonna say yeah so I saw on Instagram as well I saw some of the claw dads and in the comments I mean people were riding with cloth they are yeah yeah it was like normies yeah yeah we're like no totally totally yeah like they're winning the vibe or they've been and winning the Vibe War on X, and now it feels like they're about to win the Vibe War.

6:18I said two things can be true about the campaign. It's brilliant, well-timed, and incredibly strategic for a few reasons I'll outline below. And it's designed to plant a false impression of Chad GPT's forthcoming ad product in the minds of hundreds of millions of Americans. They could argue, oh, we're not trying to do that, but you can't really kind of argue with the effect. So Anthropic accomplishes a lot. The campaign entertains America, right? It's wildly entertaining. it's it's hilarious the perfect like sycophancy that you can hear you can hear the m dashes the pauses it's amazing really good mother uh mother is the name of the agency that they're also putting themselves on the map ahead of the ipo i think in some ways like certain audiences would know more about anthropic than claude yeah even if you're just like generally interested in investing in ai you're probably hearing about anthropic more than you're hearing about claude yeah it builds their aura with insiders if they spend 100 million dollars on this campaign and all it does is help to retain a couple of truly elite researchers.

7:14It's worth it. What are you laughing at? I love it. And Noah was saying, anthropic is campaigning to get themselves banned. Just like with misinformation just going way too far and a backlash. That's just funny to me. It somewhat continues their fear-based messaging that they've been riding with in general. Yeah, yeah, yeah. To look back at the essays. More nuanced safety. Effectively rage baits OpenAI. They got fully baited. Completely. Sam switched out of his lowercase typing and was like, I got to go into uppercase for this one. Lots of responses. And then the other thing is it's going to broadly damage consumer trust in LLMs.

7:49That does feel right. Some people will just be like, wait, they've been kind of making money on me without me knowing, right? Or can I trust every output as actually good advice, or am I being monetized? Yeah, and this is the one that you think could come back to bite them. The other five are pretty good. Potentially. I said, Anthropic has consistently told the market they don't care about consumer, but I'm not sure. The argument for ads is that they'll make LMs free for people that can't afford to pay a subscription. But Anthropic has already lost the race to serve billions of people, right? I don't think that they're, when you look at Gemini's sort of traction, OpenAI's, ChachiPT traction, like it seems like the race to get to 3 billion monthly actives is kind of over.

8:32So the question that kind of where I was taking this is, can they deliver a luxury product to a smaller cohort in the hundreds of millions to kind of iPhone numbers, right? There's like roughly like one and a half billion iPhones that are like active in the world. Those people could all buy a cheaper Android and just cheaper devices. But they've paid a premium for the iPhone because they can. And for many people, it delivers a better experience. So I said the iPhone was not the first smartphone. Claude was not the first consumer LLM. The iPhone did differentiate on specs early, not unlike a model card, but Apple did eventually pivot to more emotional arguments for why you should be seen with an iPhone.

9:10It tells people you care about the environment, that you don't have adult apps flooding your app store, and that you take privacy seriously. These have had varying levels of success. Every tech company was able to tell an ESG story, and I can't imagine an Apple exec even saying the word porn today, even though Steve Jobs was very pointed about it back in 2010. He said, you know, there's a porn store for Android. You can download porn. Your kids can download porn. That's a place we don't want to go. So we're not going to go there. Calling out the competition by name and dropping that is like heat.

9:39Yeah, and the key thing here is that it was factual. It was true. Like it wasn't deceptive. No, no. And so I don't think that was edgy, but he wasn't playing dirty. Yeah. Consumers deserve choice. It's great if they want to pay for ad-free tiers. Most don't. 1 % in Europe for Facebook, by the way. That's the stat. Crazy. They all have the option to pay for ad-free Facebook. So consumers deserve choice, but they should not be misled about how ad platforms work. Android has generated an immense amount of value for the world. So has Google broadly. Let consumers choose, but let them choose intelligently.

10:13Yes. My steel man is that they didn't cross the line. They didn't play dirty because they didn't call out Chappie GPT directly. Okay. You can take that whatever you want. But will something like this happen? They are punching up. They're punching up. They are punching up. Yes. There is a world where something like this will happen. There is a world where the ads do get integrated in such a seamless way. If you look at the evolution of Google's 10 blue links, it started with 10 blue links, no ads. Then it was a very clear yellow box with ad. And it was very clear that it was an ad. And over time, the UI evolved to be a lot less aggressive about telling you that it's an ad.

10:51And the ads on meta platforms do get creepy sometimes. you talk about something and then you see the ad and maybe that's just confirmation bias or some sort of cognitive you only notice the ones that are weird so they all feel weird you see a lot of stuff that's you weren't talking about that doesn't trigger anything but when you see the thing that you were just talking to your friend about I was just talking to you about sweaters and I see an ad for sweater I'm like how did it know and realistically it knows because you just went on Facebook you found that sweater you bought it it knows that we're friends we're DMing we're talking we're for literally friends on the platform and so it's like look Jordy likes this and they're hanging out all the time sending each other DMs why don't I just show John what I just sold to Jordy that makes perfect sense that's something that can be done with just stock vanilla machine learning at you know core AI in inside Facebook and meta and they do that very effectively but it can feel sort of creepy sometimes and some people get creeped out by it the idea that an interaction like that might happen is not complete science fiction it is possible.

11:50And so they are sort of warning that if you want to make sure that this never happens, it's our pledge, that's not even on the table. Now, the big question is, when's Anthropik launching ads? We got to get them to launch ads. Well, I don't think they can now. Zach Kukoff says, every time I see Anthropik and OpenAI, I try to distinguish themselves with comms marketing. I realize how much we are replaying the PC wars from the 90s. Anthropik, tasteful, elegant, opinionated prosumer expert enterprise open ai populace broadly appealing low consumer low consumer plus typical enterprise yeah yeah so anthropic is the apple and open ai is the microsoft and they're also aligned with microsoft owned in part by microsoft it would be interesting to hear dario just talk for an hour purely about just the risks of advertising and ai because that That would be powerful.

12:40Certainly wouldn't have been as effective as dragging open AI in front of hundreds of millions of people. Yeah. But Matt Turk says, regular startup. We closed a few customers and shipped some new features. Good week so far. Anthropic, we destroyed our main rival with our Super Bowl ads and tanked the entire software category in public markets by announcing some plugins. Good week so far. Oh, yeah, we barely even talked about this, but Anthropic launched a lawyer in your pocket. They launched a legal tool or they announced it. I don't know, is it actually available in the app yet? I don't really think it competes with Harvey.

13:12No, no, no. So I don't think it does because they're selling it direct to consumer, I believe at least. But it seems like an amazing product. Like it seems like the demand for this would be incredible. Yeah, it will compete with LegalZoom. Yeah, LegalZoom. LegalZoom is down 15 % since this announcement. Sure, sure, sure. It's now a$1.38 billion company. Yeah, sort of. I mean, LegalZoom is a little bit different because you can actually file you incorporation documents and they've been, They face pressure from Stripe, Atlas for a long time on the front. Yeah, and a bunch of other. LLCs and whatnot.

13:42But I mean, truly, like if you're getting a job and your employer gives you an offer letter, like taking that to a lawyer can be really expensive if it's your first job. You're probably not going to review it. But just being able to just forward the email in or integrate your Gmail and just say, hey, I got this offer letter. Like, does anything in here look weird? Is there anything I should ask about? I don't have a ton of leverage, but I want to understand this document. Claude should be able to do that, and it makes a lot of sense. And I expect OpenAI to launch this product, like, ASAP. He over on X says, TBH, the Anthropic ads are good, but I think they're a bad idea.

14:14Normies are not going to think, wow, this is what ChatGPT is going to be like. I better subscribe to Claude.com. They're going to think, wow, this is what AI is going to be like. Rune agrees. He's not biased at all. He says, suicide bombing strategy, it's bad for them, but worse for OpenAI. You almost have to respect it. Claude also announced a new model from Anthropic, of course, introducing Claude Opus 4.6. We have Shulte coming on the show at 12.30 to discuss that. It's the smartest model and it got an upgrade. Opus 4.6 plans more carefully, sustains agentic tasks for longer, operates reliably in massive code bases, and catches its own mistakes.

14:48It's also our first Opus class model with a 1 million token context window in beta. What was the benchmark that stuck out to you, Tyler? You said... Yeah, I think it was ArcGIV2. It's now at like 69%. I think previous was, I believe it was 5.2, which was at, I want to say 55 around. So like pretty sizable upgrade. In terms of just the vanilla go and ask a question, it's been able to get you a pretty good answer for like years now. But it hasn't been able to go and pull a bunch of financial data together, fact check it all, put it in an Excel sheet. This is what they're pushing. And this is what Clouseau Investments is so excited about.

15:25Ooh, says Clouseau. Anthropic updates AI model to field complex financial research. So Opus 4.6 is designed to carry out financial research and other work-related functions. The company's expansion into new areas, including legal service, has rattled Wall Street and sparked concerns about which companies and services will be disrupted by AI. The SaaSpocalypse is upon us. We will be asking, Sam Altman, is software dead? Or are we back? Are we back? Who knows? So OpenAI unveils Frontier, a product for building AI co-workers. This is in the Wall Street Journal. And OpenAI also posted about it. The new platform launched amid market fears over AI's disruption to software is aimed at helping businesses develop AI agents that work alongside humans.

16:08And so there are some interesting questions here about... Think of these as like AI co-workers that are actively trying to take your job. Like they're trying to help, but they're also like, they want your title, they want your comp. Yes. They want to learn everything about what makes you great. Maybe, or maybe they're just trying to empower you, Jordy. Maybe they're just trying to make you a better you. Maybe they're just coming over just cracking jokes trying to distract you while learning so that they can literally do both They can literally do both frontier works with opening eyes previously announced AI agent building tools and makes it easier for Businesses to combine sources of data that agents need to perform tasks The agents will be able to process information from various sources and complete tasks like working with files and running code Open AI said so no more copy paste everything into your into your chat GPT enterprise edition It should have access to your network, plug into all your different systems.

17:00You'll be able to write API bindings, I imagine. And there might be some forward deployed engineers or some associates from OpenAI that are helping you actually onboard fully to the agentic workflows that have been promised. Yeah, they're hiring how many consultants to help with this go to market? They are hiring hundreds of AI consultants to boost enterprise sales. There we go. This is information. Job creation. Yeah. This is a great gig. I would highly recommend jumping on this if you're in this market. OpenAI is hiring hundreds of new staffers to expand a technical consulting team that helps large corporations develop custom AI applications and agents to automate employee tasks, according to a person of knowledge with the company's plans.

17:41The hiring effort could help it beat back a competition from arch-rival Anthropic, which has also upped its game in catering to enterprises. It comes as OpenAI prepares to launch a new enterprise offering that would unify businesses' efforts to use AI. The ChatGPT maker is expanding its number of technical consultants, also known as forward-deployed engineers, who can customize OpenAI's model using a client's own data. These engineers can, for example, help T-Mobile develop AI to respond to customer service requests or help Intuit provide its customers with tax preparation services. So you have all this data.

18:14You want to do long context reinforcement learning on it. Long context reinforcement learning has been very, very successful in the coding world because Git has a complete history of every line of code that's been written, every comment, why it happened. You have this perfect record of everything that happened when you built a piece of software. And there's a ton of open source repositories. You can download all of GitHub, basically, and see how software is developed. So you can train the model on that. Yeah, let's pull up an image. There's a little graphic here that they made. From OpenAI's frontier.

18:45here, openai.com slash index slash introduceable. Yeah, and if you can zoom in a little bit, at the bottom you have your system of record, you have business context, agent execution, evaluation and optimization, your agents, OpenAI agents, third party agents, that feels significant, right? They wanna be the orchestrator, right? And if you wanna bring in some other folks in to help out, great, at least for now. And then they have interfaces, which they're ChatGPT Enterprise, OpenAI, Atlas, and other business applications. I'm a little upset that they didn't go with a Mad Max theme like Gastown.

19:23I like the Polecats. I like the mayor. I like the deacon. I thought that was a fun metaphor. They went with something a little more enterprise-y, but I think Frontier is a good name. I don't know. It sounds good. Why is Tyler laughing? Tyler's laughing. I'm getting flamed in the comments. What's up with Tyler's hair today? Yeah, what happened? Did you use shampoo nor conditioner? I need a haircut. I need a haircut. Maybe you need a hat. Maybe you can grab one of those TVPN hats over there. You'll be good. Don't worry. Alphabet sales hit record spending to double. They're going all in on AI. Google parent Alphabet reported an 18 % jump in fourth quarter revenue driven by growth in digital advertising.

20:03Sales reached nearly$114 billion ahead of analyst expectations. Net income,$34.5 billion. and a 30 % increase compared with the period a year earlier. The company reported a record$403 billion in sales for 2025. Profit,$132 billion. Not too bad. Google, like other technology companies, plans to spend tens of billions of dollars to develop AI models and build the data centers needed to train and run them. The company said it expected to spend between$175 billion and$185 billion in CapEx in 2026, up from 91 billion to 93 billion in 2025. So they're like doubling, which is, it's exponential growth.

20:47Maybe get ready for some AI progress. Yeah, somebody, I don't have it pulled up, but somebody was saying that the 2026 projected CapEx will be more than the lifetime CapEx for Google up to 2021. So in a single year, they're going to eclipse that, which is just insane. I mean, Buko had a good take. He said, Google CapEx on purpose. Tell the market this is what it will take to defeat us before IPOs hit. Yeah, certainly nerve-wracking if you're competing with them. But they have the edge on the capital side in the capital war over Anthropic and OpenAI. But the race is still real. Yeah. Ad and cloud growth acceleration justify the recent surge in Alphabet stock.

21:30But blowout CapEx forecast still takes one's breath away. The motto for the artificial intelligence race today should be, if you've got it, spend it. That's a message that Meta Platforms took to heart during its fourth quarter report last week when the Facebook and Instagram parent announced plans to spend up to$135 billion on CapEx compared to about$72 billion last year. Google managed to up the ante Wednesday with its own plan to spend as much as$185 billion this year, which would be about doubles last year's outlay. Google's annual revenue has now topped$400 billion, about twice as large as Meta's.

22:04Still, that new spending target, even for a company that has been firing all cylinders lately, takes one's breath away. Google has both the political and financial capital to lay such a bet. The company's Gemini 3 model has put it on top of a heap of performance for AI models, while the unmatched distribution of its search engine and products like Gmail have quickly driven adoption. Google said Wednesday that it has more than 750 million monthly active users just on its Gemini app, which only represents a portion of Gemini's actual users because it's vended into all the different products. What's going on in the chat?

22:374-0 Army has entered the chat. Interesting. They're hitting the chat with hashtag keep 4-0. Okay, okay. They want to be heard by Sam Alden. My question is, like, when does the AI build-out stop? because if you're constantly investing more and more where does the cash flow come from like as an analyst you look at this and you say okay they're spending you know 50 % of their revenue or 40 % of their revenue on the AI build out on data centers but how long will they need to do this like if they have to do this forever then you just permanently have a worse business because you're just constantly buying hardware.

23:19Well, yeah, I mean, you get a massive capability increase, lots of labor moves into data centers, and eventually, the revenue has to spike a lot. You can enter a scenario where it makes sense to continue to increase capex because revenue is accelerating even faster. Yeah. Richard says Google is a company that doesn't do hype. For them to go and increase capex from$90 billion to$180 billion is probably the most bullish thing long-term investors can see as it shows the scale of future revenue growth. I'm shocked that at this stage most still don't understand this. Google made$163 billion in CFO last year and is now planning to spend$180 billion in CapEx next year.

24:00Now Def think acceleration is coming, but wowza. I'd rather go bankrupt than lose the race. Joe Weisenthal says the average person on Earth is watching 25 YouTube shorts every single day. YouTube shorts average 200 billion daily views. That's a lot. That is just insane. That's a lot. I mean, you can watch a YouTube short in like five seconds on average, right? Because you skip one, you watch one for five seconds, one for 15 seconds. I don't scroll on YouTube shorts yet. I find if I search for something, like let's say I'm looking up a car, it's nice to get a 60 second explanation of it, but I'm not like sitting there scrolling.

24:39Yeah, it still serves people when I click them, but I rarely scroll through. Whereas on Instagram, I will scroll the feed of Reels. Staying in the content world, Kalshi shared that Just In YouTube generated over 60 billion last year, more than Netflix. And PolyMouse says, YouTube is beating Netflix with this really sneaky content strategy in which their creators make stuff people want to see and are then rewarded for it with views and money. And it is a simple encapsulation of the YouTube strategy. Netflix hates this one simple trick. UGC. UGC is a big, big business. Who would have thought? There is other news as always.

25:15The number of horses per county. I didn't see this chart. And Chadson says these are rookie numbers. Should be double, even triple this. Horses everywhere. Wall-to-wall horses. I totally agree. I found out, as you know, in escrow on a new property. And I was talking to somebody very enthusiastic about horses. And I was getting the breakdown on what kind of horses I'll be able to support on the property. So they're going to be the lay of the land. So I hope to contribute to, it's going to be on everyone to get these numbers up, right? It's not enough for one of us. I mean, Dara Khoshoshari, CEO of Uber yesterday, came on and said that, you know, 75 % of all land in cities is parking lots or something.

25:59There's a lot of parking lots. What's going to happen to them when we don't need them because of autonomous cars? Stables! Yep. You take your Waymo or your autonomous Uber into the city, you hop on a steed and you go from place to place.