Apple vs OpenAI, Paramount Threatens to Leave CA, Mark Gurman Joins | Alexis Ohanian, Morgan Housel, Nico Christie & Michael Jarman

27:17Would they be making less films? Would they change their pattern? because as they are two separate buyers of intellectual property and scripts that come to Hollywood, they can pay higher prices. There's less competition, potentially the price that the industry becomes more monopolistic and there's less buying activity. So the proposed deal was and is the largest merger in Hollywood history. It would combine two of the five major film distributors and give the resulting company control of roughly 27 % of U.S. film distribution and basic cable channels. Of course, anyone who's in favor of this was arguing that, well, people are watching Instagram and YouTube all day long and listening to podcasts and live streams.

28:05You can't look at Hollywood in isolation. It's okay if there's a little bit of consolidation in an industry that's facing incredible pressure from a new disruptive industry. We saw this play out with the Shutterstock Getty Images question where you have immense pressure in the stock image market from an entirely new outsider technology. Consolidation makes a lot of sense usually in those scenarios. But if you're just looking at it, if you're just defining the industry as only Hollywood studios, then yes, this does represent more consolidation. Friends and advisors to Paramount CEO David Ellison had reportedly been urging him to reconsider the company's California footprint in the event that California sued over the deal.

28:51Previously, Paramount had offered to keep both of its historic studio lots in California open and release 30 films annually, which was basically just adding the 15 and 15 that were made from both studios, I believe, something like that. But executives have privately complained that Bonta refused to negotiate. Worth noting that the Justice Department has already cleared the merger, while China and other international regulators have raised no comparable objections thus far. So from an antitrust perspective, it looks like the merger can go through, but the state of California is potentially trying to block it now.

29:27So Paramount says California's complaint distorts settled antitrust law and is based on misrepresentation of competition in the entertainment industry today. It'd be very interesting to see where they actually go if they do leave California because there's been so much movement to Texas and Florida. But in terms of filmmaking, Toronto, London, Atlanta, exactly. So maybe Georgia. I don't know. I'm sure every other state is gunning for this because bringing an industry to town is almost always a good move. More jobs for your local economy, more tax dollars going around. There will probably be a competition.

30:05But we'll see where this develops. And we might have someone from the media analysis industry come on the show later this week to discuss. There is a new letter. New letter just dropped. We are hoping for a new billion dollar PDF, but we got another letter. More than 200 researchers and economists, including Jack Clark, Jeff Dean, Don Brown, Tyler Cohen, Sholto, John Shulman, Eric Schmidt, Dean Ball, Joshua Bengio. have signed a statement urging governments and institutions to act now to prepare for AI's economic impact. They start the letter by saying AI may become radically more powerful over the next 10 years.

30:56This isn't like the start. It's just three statements. The entire message is three. They're saying we all agree with these three statements. They agree that AI could possibly become radically more powerful over the next 10 years. Which feels very conservative. That's like an incredible, you're not committing to anything at all. Uh, no. I mean, there are plenty of people that are saying that AI will go away in the next 10 years. Like it's, it's, it's useless. You know, no one's really saying that. And Zitrin saying that and like a hundred thousand people are liking his post when he says that. So like there are a hundred thousand people out there that are like, it hallucinates.

31:33It's dumb. It's, it's not useful. It's going to go away. A hundred thousand people out of billions believe it's going to go away. I'm just saying there are people that don't believe this. But, yes, this does feel like actually an easier statement to agree with than the short timelines of fast takeoff in two years, recursive self-improvement. Anything that's coming out of basically any lab is much more aggressive than this. Elon's timelines have been solving new physics in two years, stuff like that. Okay, so point one, AI may become radically more powerful over the next 10 years. Point two, this could drive an unprecedented transformation of our economy larger than the industrial revolution, but unfolding over a vastly shorter timeframe.

32:17It could bring risks, including large scale job displacement, as well as opportunities such as major gains in living standards. And three, economists, policymakers, and technology leaders must act now to understand the economics of transformative AI and to build the incentives, guardrails, and institutions needed to steer AI in a direction that complements humans and benefits society. So that last one's not a probability. Yeah. The first one, it feels like you can sign if you're at 1%. 1 % chance that it gets radically more powerful over the next 10 years. 1 % chance that it drives an unprecedented transformation of our economy.

32:54But as long as you agree that economists, policymakers, and technology leaders must act now to understand the economics of transformative AI, you sign this. So three is really the strongest, the strongest, the most strongly worded bullet point. Well, and it's interesting because the people signing this are technology leaders. But not the actual top leaders, interestingly. So if you look at who signed this, you have a ton of people from OpenAI, Anthropic, Stanford, Meter, Harvard, every lab. Bam Margera, I think you said. No, no, no. Google, Jeff Dean. You have people from top institutions, but not the CEOs, not the investors.

33:40There's been other. I mean, I guess Reid Hoffman and Jan Tallon and who else is? I mean, Eric Schmidt's on here. But notably absent are Sam Altman, Dario Amadei. I don't believe Demis is on here. Is he on here? Yeah, but you have Jack Clark, Sarah Fryer. Yeah, but what's interesting is that it's sort of like the proxies. It's like the right-hand men and women of the AI leaders that are signing. And so you have to imagine that Dario, Sam, Elon, Demis, Sundar, Satya, like they got the message. This was received to them, and they were like, you guys can solve this. You can sign this, but we're not signing it.

34:21Because this doesn't feel like something that happens behind the scenes where Sarah Fryer doesn't go to Sam or Shalto doesn't bring this up to Dario. Oh, there's a new letter. I'm thinking of signing it. It feels like it's surfing. So it was that big pause letter that Elon did sign at one point. A lot of people signed it. And that one, every lab leader actually did sign. And this one isn't even a pause, but somehow didn't rise to the aura level. And maybe that's deliberate because then it gets clipped and turned into headlines where it's like, you know, blank lab leader. Fill in anyone. It's going to be a it's going to be here's at X, Y, Z.

35:01Yes, it's going to be head of blank lab. If you're the first one to jump if you're Sam or Dario or Demis or Elon They just said that it could bring large-scale job displacement So you you're gonna have that headline tag next to you as opposed to if it's like Someone at a lab who is not the CEO of that lab Says it can bring large-scale job displays because right now it seems like at the very top a lot of the lab leaders are sort of backing off of the near-term job displacement worries. Yeah, but I think this still feels much more like the AI doc than like AI 2040, right? And the message I got from the AI doc was like, we all got to talk about this.

35:45Let's get everyone in a room and figure something out. We don't know at all what it's going to be. We got to figure something out. Where AI 2040 is like, okay, we have this. This is our plan A. We should be doing this specific set of policies, tasks, whatever. Yes. It's like specifically unifying rules with China, like U.S. and China, like nuclear level negotiations on how things slow down. It's a global slowdown of large scale AI training runs, essentially. And this is very, yeah, this is very, very different. So much easier to sign. But AI 2040 didn't have like signatories. I mean, it had people that like helped out with it in general.

36:24And then they did pull them as to, they pulled some of the authors to say, like, which one do you think is most likely to play out? But I guess by any, I guess everyone implicitly in the AI 2040, if you contributed to that document, you're sort of alongside advocating for, is it plan A? Because it's the fourth one that they offer. Is it plan D? I think plan A is what they are advocating for. There's a bunch of plans, and then I think in the order on the website, I think it is the fourth one, but that's just arbitrary. AI 2040. I'm trying to load the site, but it's not loading. Anyway, we can come back to that.

37:03We must act now. I like this. I like the idea of more economic research, more policymaking research to understand these things. It's hard to get wrong because the end result is just more information, more studies, more conversation and proposals. It's not anything specifically. If it was like large-scale job displacement is coming next month, we need to print money and do economic stimulus broadly like we did during COVID, I would be like, I don't know that the, what if the job displacement doesn't come up and we just create a bunch of inflation? Like, I don't know if we should do that, but we should be ready for if we hit 10 % unemployment, 15 % unemployment, that we do have stimulus in the back pocket.

37:53And I think we do with where interest rates are and with the history of how we've dealt with employment shocks in the past. So I think we are like set up pretty well if that happens. It doesn't seem like it's happening at this moment, but tell us about that. The critical view on this is the people building the technology say that we got to do something about this.

38:19Like it's kind of a just continuation of like that we got to do something about this. And maybe you just need to do a new letter every single month forever. Maybe. But I don't know. Let me tell you about Figma. Agents, meet the canvas. Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context. I want that. For the next ad read, I want the ship horn. The ship horn is where it's at. That one is so underrated. So I wanted to talk about the mustard controversy over the weekend, but the original video was deleted. Okay. And it's now really hard to... Just describe it to me.

38:54We have audio listeners. So there's two car content creators in the LA area. Okay. One of them is an account called Collected Bands, who's a Porsche enthusiast, a BMW enthusiast, likes to drive fast. Younger? On the younger side. And then you have a guy named Canyon Carver, who's effectively like a vigilante of the canyons. So he hangs up in a lot of the popular driving areas. And he doesn't like to drive fast? Canyon Carver? He likes to drive pretty, I would say, close to the speed limit. Okay. And so he hangs out places like ACH, in the Santa Monica Mountains, around Malibu. ACH? Angeles Crest Highway.

39:38Okay. Which is near you. Yeah. And so he likens himself to kind of the sheriff or the mayor. The Batman. He calls him the Batman. He claims to be the original Meta Ray-Bans car guy. Oh, interesting. Okay. I thought that was you. I don't know how true that is. But over the weekend, these two cross paths and there was a video that ran up to hundreds of thousands of likes before on Saturday to Sunday before being deleted, where the Canyon Carver is driving and he gets passed by this other car influencer. And then they end up in the same parking lot and they have a very, quite a funny exchange where they're just talking past each other sort of perfectly.

40:37The younger guy is accusing the Canyon Carver of just being 40, which is kind of funny. and uh the canyon carver is accusing the other the the younger guy of uh his dad buying the car for him to which he immediately says uh just because my dad bought me this car doesn't mean i can't afford it which is which is a which is a funny um yeah which is a funny line but anyways this is so inside baseball like la southern california car enthusiast drama that i think it's time to move on because without the original video, it's really tough. What is your stance on cutting the mustard? Yeah, so I'm very against cutting the mustard.

41:21Okay. You like a safe highway, a safe canyon to be carved safely. Yes, so cutting the mustard is when, you know, if someone is driving fast on a, let's say, a canyon backcountry road and they're using the entire road, right? They're sort of disregarding the lanes. The double yellow line. Yeah, double yellow. They're crossing it because they can get. Which is a moving violation. That's illegal, right? Yeah, no. It's objectively against the law. Yeah. And then it's very dangerous because you're coming around a tight corner, and if somebody's in your lane, it can be over really quickly. Maybe we should have sort of an autobahn-style rule where the yellow line doesn't apply.

42:02There's certain highways in America. It's like we can't get over the speed limit thing. We've got to have the speed limit. There's still a hard speed limit, but you can drive wherever you want. Absolutely not. I think that would be crazy. Absolutely not. I mean, the problem is like Willow Springs is like 45 minutes away. Just go to the track, and it's a public course you can pay and go and drive as fast as you want, and there is no traffic coming the other way. It's much safer. So if you're trying to push your car to the limit, like there is a way to do that legally and safely, and so you should probably just do that.

42:33I thought it was interesting because it was very generational. You have like the millennial, you know, against the brain rotted sort of zoomer. And then they just couldn't even have a conversation. They were just sort of speaking past each other, you know, doing various ad hominens. Okay. Well, last car question from Reddit, r slash wealth. If I inherit$4 million USD and a home at 35 years old, would it be responsible for me to just buy a Ferrari? Why just? That's a funny way to put it. But I think, yes, I mean, you're not going to probably beat the S &P, but a lot of the cars hold their value.

43:13Might be fun. I don't know. It depends on your lifestyle. If you have five kids in private schools or something, like$4 million probably isn't enough. Depends on where that home is. Do you live in Manhattan? Yeah, it comes down entirely to what car you select. Yeah. Because there's a lot of cars that, you know, if you're not driving them a lot, it would probably, you know, at least track T-bills, right? Yeah. From a certain appreciation standpoint. I live in Manhattan. I'm trying to send my kids to the most elite boarding schools. I have seven kids, and I'm considering a luche. That would be a rough go.

43:44But if you're out in an affordable town, plenty of space, you're not going to spend that much money. The$4 million is going to last you a long time. Maybe pick up a... There was a powerful omen in Yellowstone National Park Friday evening. Oh, yes, this bison. A bull bison. A tourist was seriously injured Friday evening after being thrown eight feet into the air by a bull bison in Yellowstone National Park. If you're in Yellowstone, be very, very careful. I didn't realize that bison roamed so freely and could and were so aggressive. Professional photographer Mike McLeod filmed the incident and said the bison was angry, agitated and charging anything and everything.

44:30and the scale of this beast is really massive. It looks absolutely huge and it goes all around chasing this poor elderly tourist who ended up being totally okay. Oh, really? And when you see this, it's almost unbelievable. That's remarkable. Cowboy State Daily says tourist was seriously injured, but I guess the man did recover, which is very, very good to hear. you never want to see someone injured on the timeline but he really does get thrown way way in the air and he's running around i was wondering he should have gone for the car right there right but there there you go he's thrown in the air absolutely insane uh i'm so glad he's okay i like that people are already remixing this uh wild spicy says uh if it was me out there we gotta different throw the bison yeah if alexis if that was alexis being chased this is what would have happened.

45:27Let's bring Alexis in, but first let me tell you about the New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. Look at that foghorn for me. Well, we have Alexis Ohanian from 776. He's the founder and GP with us here in the TBP and Ultradome. Alexis, how are you doing? Welcome to the show. Doing very well, gentlemen. I'm glad that guy's okay. You know, I saw actually if you find yourself in that situation, apparently if you run, I think bison can't go laterally So you want to kind of zig. I thought that was crocodiles and alligators you want to zigzag.

45:57Is zigzagging just a farce? Oh, that's a farce. I think that's something Floridians tell tourists. You got to be like NFL mode, just running routes on the bison. Running routes on the bison? Yes. That's the move. Absolutely. Sidestep them. Good to know. Good to know. Absolutely wild. How is your summer going? Are you engrossed in World Cup? What's your summer been like? Give me a little recap. It's good. Ironically, I have spent most of this World Cup actually in Europe. watching the matches back in America at like two, three in the morning. Yeah. I'm more of, you know, I'm more of a women's sports fan.

46:29Of course. But it's been great. It's been great watching the American men showed up in a big way. Obviously, you know, it didn't get as far as any of us, you know, we would have wanted to see a title, but very happy for the American men to have made it to the 16. And I don't know who to root for now. I guess technically England. Yeah. Given my Chelsea women's connection. Okay. We'll see. There you go. We'll see how it goes. Yeah. I want your current thesis on premier in real life events, maybe in the age of AI, maybe there's some other boom happening, but I have some stats here that are crazy that we're on the timeline from Adam Miller, UFC.

47:02They sold, it sold for 4 billion in 2016, worth 15 billion today. F1 revenue is up 115 % since 2017. Team values are up to 76 FIFA world cup. viewership is on track to to pass 2022's five billion revenues up 56 percent nba media rights tripled in a decade nfl 110 billion in media rights through 2033 broadway is up live comedy vc hox as they call them high rocks six billion high rocks went from 650 athletes in 2017 to 1.5 million world music tours top 100 tours grossed 8.9 billion how are you thinking about this is Is this an opportunity as a fan or as an investor or as a businessman? What's your overall thinking on live events in the future?

47:50Look, last time I was on here, I think I was gassing up my track and field league. That's right. With the Olympics there, AFLOS, every year, not just every four years. I've been obviously very early in sparking the women's sports movement, starting Angel City and the investment there. But you can roll the tape. There is footage from, I think, two and a half years ago at CanLion where I call sports the ultimate anti-AI bet. And I think just two weeks ago, JP Morgan Chase is on stage saying the same thing. So what we mapped out at 776 three years ago, right after ChatGPT was basically, we know it's going to get really good at writing and then it's going to get really good at writing code.

48:27And then, you know, once actually it was after Dali, I was like, okay, even this first version is janky, but moving pictures are just one step away from static pictures. So in the world of entertainment, right, the pillars of entertainment, you have music industry, you have movie, Hollywood, and you have sports. What will remain unchanged and durable in the age of AI, even when you can have a pixel perfect highlight of Mbappe scoring a goal? It will do nothing for the soul because it never actually happened. The human experience is the reason why it's valuable. And I, you know, Josh Kushner, who's a friend and obviously an incredibly successful investor, his first investment from Thrive Eternal, great name, by the way, was the San Francisco baseball Giants.

49:05Like we are now seeing a moment where the smartest folks in venture capital realizing this is not just a trophy asset. And what we've been privileged to see now for three, four, five, six years is under the hood of these organizations. Guys, the best sports teams in the world, the best sports leagues in the world are run like a tech company in like the mid-aughts. They are devoid of modern technology. Yeah, I've asked every time an athlete comes on here, I'm expecting them to have some like, you know, basically performance super intelligence. Yeah, like, oh, I have a database with every lift I've done.

49:42It tells me exactly what to lift and where to ice. And it's like, no, I just have a guy that, you know, tells me if it hurts, I walk it off or something. And it's also on the business side of the house, right? And so it's even asking a question like, what CRM do you use? like again you're going to get some weird looks and like maybe it's salesforce or like oh we've been trying this new thing called hubspot and and so all across the stack there is tremendous opportunity for efficiency for software and so the smart money we're we're we're investing and they're also figuring out how to invest in the tools that'll make these even more profitable enterprises and i'm fired up because i also i get i spend all of my time at 776 either investing in the technology of the future that is going to accelerate.

50:26So we all had Philip on here, our guy from star cloud, right? Data centers in space, crazy, ambitious infrastructure play or the other end of the barbell of everything I know will be left. And so a consumer electronics company like mod retro, let's software keep getting cheaper to make. We still need to have physical things to play those games. We should make them closer to, or in America. And so that's a trend that I know is going to continue to grow. And so I, I really see the world through those two sides of the barbell, either rapidly accelerating the world or everything that I know is still going to be left and matter even more.

50:58And it's funny you mentioned Broadway. Pull the tweet. I think it was a year and a half ago. I'm still trying to find the venture-backed model for it. But my bet was because anyone will be able to sort of dream up their version of Iron Man where they're Iron Man and obviously with making sure Daddy Disney gets their check. But you're going to have this dispersion of culture. And acting at the end of the day is way more normal for our species in person than it is going into a dark theater and watching it on the screen. Wow, I found the tweet. I found the tweet. Bonus hot take. I think we'll see live theater make a comeback in the next 10 years.

51:31And you said it's July 7th, 2024. I got one for you. I think you should incubate a robot circus, an event that you can go to. And I think in about two years, that you will have robots capable of feats that will be wildly impressive you can imagine like a drone show that where the drones fly up to within you know a foot uh from your face you've got humanoids going going crazy canadians right now running cirque de soleil who are very mad i think i will i'll give you this yeah it's robot cirque de soleil i think there is so part of the why at least for me with those things and maybe this is just exposing myself as a bad person is the fact that you're like, again, you're not hoping anyone gets hurt, but it's this anxiety of like, oh my God, what's going to happen?

52:20Like, is this person going to survive this death defying act? Yeah. So you need to make the, the, the person viewing it feel like they're going to die. It's a drone. It's a drone that flies. It's a, you're strapped in, you're strapped into like a, you know, uh, like a rollercoaster seat and the drone flies like at two feet from your face. I can, I can do the action. The, I do think I'm, I'm fond of saying that like, no one will pay money to watch like robots play soccer or imagine golf is an easy one. No one's going to want to watch a Ryder cup where, uh, you know, you get 18 hole in ones against another 18 hole in ones.

52:54But, but there are some sports, you know, we've seen battle bots, right? There there's, there's versions of that with like gladiators sort of robots fighting to death. There's probably a version of drone racing that allows, I mean, you play twisted metal, but allows weapons. Oh, yeah, yeah. On the drones. There are new sports that are actually entirely robotic, but that are levels up of American ones or human ones that we don't want humans doing. But I had not considered making it an experience for the fans. Okay, so really quickly. So as live events are growing, I feel like a lot of collectibles come out of the live event.

53:32It's like the game ball, the card of the player who played in the live event. And you're sort of, there's like this chain of custody, chain of authenticity. This thing happened. This human was great at this thing. There was lore. You could have gone and saw it with your own eyes. And now there's a card that commemorates it. What's going on in the collectible space? Is there as much of a boom there? What do you expect happening over the next couple of years? And what are you doing specifically? Well, you know, a few years back, I created the, when I heard trading cards were coming back, I quietly amassed the largest collection ever of my wife's cards just because I didn't want them ending up in some other collector's house.

54:09I wanted my kids to have that. You're like, no one's going to make money on these cards, but me. These are family heirlooms. No, no, no. They're going to stay in the family frame. No, no. But you also, you drive up the price by taking all of those cards into the treasury. And so everyone's like, oh, the lore is growing. Yes. Many knock on effects. And then I was the lead investor in alt so marketplace which just had they just set a record for an all-time kaboom it was like a 1.4 million dollars for a one-of-one wemby wow and you're starting to see real dollars so it's a it is a a brand within the universe of trading cards that was inspired by like 90s era comics okay and so it's your favorite players but sort of restylized as like cartoons almost comic book inspired art yeah and for whatever reason it struck a nerve with the culture and and so you have these record auctions happening.

54:57I'm a big fan of collectible video games, match worn, you know, athletic apparel, all these things I think are culture assets for us. Like having an 86 Fleer Jordan rookie card on my desk in mint condition is a better sort of more satisfying flex for me than having like a Warhol, no offense to Warhol, but I think the energy of contemporary art, I think this is our contemporary art, especially for a generation of us who grew up collecting or idolizing. And now that, you know, tops and others have gotten much smarter. Oh, by the way, I bought a trading card company. Yeah. Explain that. I mean, is this normal for a VC firm?

55:31Is it within the firm? Yeah. Very interesting strategy. When you're the biggest LP in the VC firm, you get to kind of do what you want to do. We have amazing institutional LPs don't get me wrong, but like I, I sign up every deal we do at seven, seven, six. I'm when I'm hitting send, I'm thinking of my kids inheritance, right? This is my money more than anyone else's. Totally. Or theirs, really. And so with trading cards, this was a modest-sized company that was specializing in college sports. Obviously, NILs changed the landscape of that. And this long tail of college athletes, a guy like Mendoza gets a card deal with us, and he doesn't just get his rookie card.

56:09His left tackle gets a card. So the guy protecting his ass, who may never get to play in the NFL, may never get a card. He's getting a card with on it. And, you know, I love the fact we actually have just as many, we have more women college athlete cards in the last year than every other card company combined. So there's a long tail there. University of Nebraska Women's Volleyball sells more cards than the men's football team. And so it's focused on a part of sports that I obviously love. I think college is obviously a huge and booming opportunity. And these companies all need software now. They all have an opportunity.

56:41Do any of the athletes turn it down? no it's i mean the the amazing thing is we're playing at a level where like some of these guys are making so much money in nil deals yeah that the kind of deal we're striking with them is like 10 15 million no no that's the amount that they're making all year that's not what i'm paying yeah no no these card deals are still pretty small ball and so relative to the deals they're getting from big brands and what's dope is you know most of these guys are thinking big picture And if they make a little less money doing an audit deal, but every other guy on their team is getting a card.

57:14Oh, sure. They're not mad. They're not mad. Oh, that's cool. Yeah. Yeah. And the athletic directors love it because we're also working with the women athletes just as much as we are with the men. So that's the focus. But I'm inspired by so much of the motion and creativity happening here. Even Jensen Wong's leather jacket going on sale. I think it's only the second one that's been auctioned. These are cultural moments. And I know we live in a weird little myopic tech world, but like, yeah, what's it? I want to bid on. Have you, have you, have you bid yet? You know, you know, the, the Jensen jacket is now the, you know, the Jensen jackets going to a good cause.

57:49It's our friend, Justin Mayer's inflection grants. So all the money, all the proceeds are going to be given to, to, you know, founders, no strings attached, no equity, just love the game. Um, how, how much do you think the, um, boom in live events is driven by social media and flexing? Like these are the, you know, very exclusive, um, basically, you know, you can call them like one of 10 ,000 assets, right? Or there are these like ephemeral, uh, you're buying a ticket, but it's also, you know, there was a very viral post over the weekend. The narrative is almost like the next bull case for live events.

58:32And in fact, the current boom is driven more just by people seeing cool events happening on social media and then also just feeling isolated. They're spending a lot of time on their phone. They're like, I got to get out of here. I should go to that live event. And everything else outside of the live event is free. So I'll spend more money on the live event because I can basically watch every music video ever created for free on YouTube, et cetera. And I agree with you that the AI thing is going to be big, but it doesn't feel like the current driver. Look, I don't disagree. And I would also think of it as sort of just like that K-shape happening in the economy.

59:07I think you're going to see, right, what are the things, the Wimbledon ticket is going to continue to be even more exclusive, even more scarce because there's just a finite amount of access to it, right? But I also wouldn't discount growth on the other end, which is, I think, a bigger culture shift. In building Aflos, one of the things that's been really eye-opening for me is we partner with run clubs in order to build our fan base. Now, just because you run doesn't necessarily mean you're a fan of track and field, but it's very easy to get you to be one because these are the best in the world doing what you like doing for fun.

59:39The average soccer fan doesn't play soccer very often, right? And so by learning about run clubs the last two years, not firsthand, but I've learned that it is a way for Gen Z to push back on the toxicity of online dating culture. It is a way to push back and almost break the sort of jaded narrative of like online life to actually like meet with people, decide if you want to spend more time with them or not. Again, platonically or romantically. And I think there's also a culture shift happening among Gen Z's in particular who have kind of lived through the dark parts of social and have just said, fuck the algorithm.

1:00:13I mean, not all of them, but I'd say like a material majority and said, I crave IRL. And it doesn't cost a Wimbledon ticket to go join a run club, but it's an experience that is verifiably human, which is harder and harder on this dead Internet. And it's a chance to get laid. It's a chance to meet someone who could be a lifelong friend. Like there's, I think the, that part of the barbell that gets me excited is that side of like the things we've done as a species way longer than this modern age of the last couple hundred years. And I think those food, I mean, this is, it's such a dumb thing, but like, I think if we get the AI utopia, we all want, right.

1:00:49This gets cheaper and easier and better to make, and it's healthier for you. It's more accessible to more people. There are so many things that are still going to be invaluable that will still give us. and I hope give us even more of a purpose to live, whether it's getting food together or going for a run together, shouting at a soccer game or screaming with our favorite singer or laughing at a stand-up comedian's jokes. Like, I actually, I'm very bullish on humanity for if this goes right, us actually having even more appreciation for the shit that, like, a world that our great-great-grandparents would actually really recognize as being, like, the sort of fundamental parts of humanity.

1:01:23Yeah. And I don't know if you come from a show. us uh given you know given your work with athlos how did you process the enhanced games it felt like to me to me it was like one of those ideas that that uh sounded so cool in theory but then as i was watching it i realized like how much of the olympics is about the pain and the glory and the sacrifice and representing your country and like the every four years dynamic and just how different a gold and a silver are even though they're right next to each other on the podium and so when i was watching it it just felt like drinking a flat soda you know where it's like you got a little bit of the taste but it doesn't hit and yeah here's how you how you felt yeah look i and i would not i i am i know those guys i am happy they did it in the sense that i do think those regulatory bodies wada and some of these others are very very antiquated with how they think about usage and testing.

1:02:23And even you hear about athletes getting suspended for marijuana, like things where it's like, is this really in the best interest of preserving the sport? And I do think guys like Brian Johnson and others who are human guinea pigs for things that could benefit all of us, a great benefit to society, right? Where this one rubbed me the wrong way, or at least where I knew I wasn't going to want to be party to it was because, I mean, the thing you nailed, obviously having a wildly successful professional athlete for a wife who was also accused for so much of her career of some bullshit doping, right?

1:02:53The idea of a league that is leaning so heavily into everyone dopes is just anathema to what I really believe sport is about. But I'm still, look, I still think, like I said, I think it's important to move the narrative forward of like what actually should be approved and not. And. I also think hopefully it gives people more of an appreciation, like you said, for the fact these athletes sacrifice. And probably it's a similar narrative that we had when I found out how little money most Olympic athletes actually make. Like before Athlos, the top prize for a track and field athlete was$30 ,000 in a season.

1:03:28They would win the championship that year, be the fastest man or woman in their race. Man or woman. It was 30 grand. That's a went-want. You can't be professional. You can't want a trombone. Yeah. There we go. There it is. and and so we doubled it just because now it's a change and then we i think we have we have two point we have over 2.1 million in prize money this year for two races in new york and we're giving equity like like these are all things and i think the enhanced games prize money is also a helpful way to push that conversation forward of saying hey these olympic athletes should actually they're worth more yeah and uh and so i think that's good for them but yeah like i said i couldn't i couldn't personally get behind it uh for those reasons and uh how are you last question since we're out of time uh how are you processing just the explosion of sports betting as i was and and kind of how it's driving sports and live events and providing a lot of funding but at the same time i was watching uh you know watching the the mcgregor fight if you could call it that on saturday and like they don't even do betting exclusives anymore it's every single ad is for a different sports book or prediction market um and uh and and and so yeah it's like uh i i've never had like the sports betting bug i've at points been like i gotta give this a good shot like it seems like a lot of people really like doing this i gave it a shot i could watch you i watched you lose 200 and it was one of the most entertaining things yes it was wildly entertaining it was wildly entertaining for john but for me i was like i was like that's it i mean he's down to his last four cents let's see what he'll do now yeah i did i did get down to four cents and then i was like i'm gonna make it all back in one trade and then man like 20 different legs yeah i um look i one of the things we've said around here is we want to invest in things that we know can make you know generational size returns uh but also be things we're proud to tell our kids about.

1:05:27And so I have, again, I have no beef with betting or gambling. I think in models where the house always wins, that does not stir my cocoa because now you're just weaponizing sort of slot machine tactics to bring someone back who probably shouldn't be investing that next dollar or gambling that next dollar. I think prediction markets are unique in that it is peer to peer. And I feel less distaste around, hey, someone made a better decision than you did today. sure right that feels more like any market um but i do think overall the worst toxicity that i've seen on the internet when i when i get and it's it's i mean it was jarring when i first started dating my wife the worst toxicity that i would get was from psychopathic racists on the internet and it was tied to sports betting whoa yeah and and so it's in tennis is a unique sport where there's actually always been a lot of sports betting women's sport where there's actually always been a lot of energy around it.

1:06:22And so even just anecdotally, it feels like athletes carry a disproportionate weight from it. And it might be easy to say, well, don't, don't check social media, but like you guys, I mean, we all get our, we all get our hate, but like, if you're an athlete, like you're literally just trying to do your job every day in front of everyone. We don't have to, our board meetings are not broadcast to the world. We don't, you already have to live every workday in front of every person on the planet. And if the downside, if a shadow of sports betting and its rampant growth is even more toxicity for the athletes, like that feels bad.

1:06:58And then there's the dystopian joke. Yeah, I think it was like Holland's teammate who, you know, had a clear sort of hope. Should have passed it. But he's in the moment, you know. He thinks he's going to be a hero. And, yeah, he had more, you know, he just lost the World Cup, you know. Or not lost, but lost in the quarters. And he had like double the amount of comments as likes on his last post, almost all of them saying like – And it's just very different when you're a fan, you're passionate about a team. Yes, you are upset about your favorite player. Yell at the TV. Yeah, yeah. But it's different.

1:07:37When people have money on the line, they are more incentivized to go crazy online and send the aggressive message, which is never fun. Yeah. Never fun. Yeah. And I, and I, and I also just think from a health standpoint of our society, right? We know young men are more likely, right? We're risk takers biologically. And that's a great thing when it pushes us to go take an entrepreneurial risk. It is a less great thing when we invest our last hundred dollars on a parlay that's never going to pay off. And then it leads us into a cycle of addiction and problems. And so I hope we can have a good conversation as a society about this.

1:08:09I know we're in a very like, let's say deregulatory time in America right now. And I hope when that switches, I hope it doesn't lead to a hyper-regulatory period. But I hope we can have a reasonable conversation because I also – the part that worries me the most is we know we're going to continue to see more growth and acceleration for folks who are connected and plugged in. And that's going to be a great thing. It's going to give us lots of good stuff. If the folks who aren't feel even more disenfranchised and even more left out, that there's this almost like – and you see parts of it flare up in crypto for sure.

1:08:40You see this sort of dystopian world of people willing to do anything to make a buck. That from a societal standpoint makes me very, very, very uneasy. And it's becoming more and more obvious how big a role betting is, in particular sports betting is. And I just feel like we haven't had the conversation. And I don't know if we have the folks equipped to have the right one. Yeah, it's starting. It's starting. I think Saturday's event could be somewhat of a turning point with UFC because there's some potential. There's an idea that maybe there was people that knew there was a major injury going into that and there was too much money on the line.

1:09:21I think we will have a national conversation about this. I'll give you 10 to 1 odds that it happens this year by the end of the year. You guys are good. I also heard an interesting statement. 99 % of gamblers quit right before they hit it big. So if that really goes national and people embrace the statistic, I mean, it's just math. Like, you know, anyway, we had a bet. We had a bet running too that this interview would go over because we always love talking to you. I love talking to you guys. I'm sorry it's been so long. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We'll do it again soon. Great to see you. And congratulations.

1:09:52Thank you. I congratulate you all on Twitter, but congrats on the exit. I will still point out, as soon as I saw you guys watch, I was like, please let me invest. I know. I need to apologize. I need to apologize. Because we were like, yeah, we're a bunch of podcasters. It's a podcast. I was like, why would you want to invest in it? You saw it. I saw the potential. You saw it. Anyway. You guys deserve every bit of it, though. Thank you. I appreciate that. Great to see you, dude. Have a great rest of your day. We'll talk to you soon. Let me tell you about Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era.

1:10:15Unlock seamless real-time experiences and new value with Cisco. Our next guest is Morgan Housel. He's been on the show once, twice. I think this is his third time. Fourth time? Maybe fourth time? I think fourth. I'll be back, Morgan. We've got a bet going now. Hey, guys. How are you? Yeah. Can we start with sports betting? Is it an epidemic? How do you think? How has the sports betting boom and the gambling boom and the hyper financialization worked its way into your thought process and your work generally? I have two takes on this. One that's been talked about by a lot of people is that this well-known idea in psychology that if you think all of your options in life are bad, you become very risk seeking.

1:10:54And so if you feel like you can go to college, get a degree, work hard, get promoted, buy a house, you'll do that. If you don't, you'll start trading zero-day options. That makes sense. I believe that. I could also argue the other side, which is that if my generation, my parents' generation, our grandparents, if they had access to all of these things, they would have done the same thing. It's just because we have these tools now that we're using them. Yeah, it's such a classic. The image of a boomer in the Vegas airport just hitting the button over and over and over is sort of like an iconic image in my mind.

1:11:28And I think that's proof to what you're saying, which is like, you know, if everyone had a casino in their pocket for the last hundred years and probably every generation would have been gambling at a pretty high rate. We're the same. I mean, for my generation, when we were teenagers, the new thing was was day trading, because before that you had to call your stockbroker and pay him two hundred dollars to make a transaction. Now you had E-Trade and Charles Schwab. You could do it for free or nothing. And so all of us, like when I was 17, we all started day trading. Every one of us did it. It wasn't about the economy.

1:11:58It was just the tools we had in front of us. How do you think about loss aversion in the gambling, in the world where you're doing these crazy parlays? Because there's been all these studies that show that people have more negative feelings about losing money than the good feelings that come from making money. This general idea of loss aversion. If you lose$10, you're going to feel more pain than the joy that you would equivalently feel from gaining$10. So people are generally loss averse. And yet gambling seems like a formula for endlessly triggering that loss aversion. And yet we don't see that actually play out.

1:12:38And then you also have this other concept of house money where if you do win, it's not your money that you earned from your paycheck. And you're much more likely to take higher risk from there. from there. And you see it with loss aversion in people's lifestyles as well. If you go from a Honda Civic to a BMW, it feels pretty good. If you are forced to go from the BMW back to the Civic, it's the worst feeling you could ever possibly imagine. Will Smith talked about this with fame. He was like, becoming famous is amazing. Being famous is okay. Losing fame is the hardest pain you could ever experience.

1:13:09And so I think there's a lot of things in life that are like that, where you're taking risks and particularly like investing when you know, as a matter of fact, that you're going to have losses. That's just, that's just coming with it. And if the losses are going to feel 10 times worse than, than your gains, it's going to be, it's going to be tough. There's so many of like the best hedge fund managers, stock traders, the people who've actually done extraordinarily well over years and decades. And you look at their track record and they might be right 55 % of the time, maybe like 65 % of the time, if they're incredibly good at what they do.

1:13:39And so really what their, their skill is, is they became very comfortable and level-headed losing money. That was how they made money over time was paying the cost of admission of just dealing with that volatility and loss. Yeah. I've, uh, I've been disappointed that, uh, a lot of the folks that I know that participate in gambling, uh, refuse to take my advice and invest in the gambling companies just by the house. Um, because some of the, some of the gambling stocks, you like the industry, hate the industry, but some of the gambling stocks have been very performant. And it feels like it should be the solution.

1:14:14And yet it doesn't have the same psychological impact of the quick, quick wins that come from actually playing. Shifting gears a little bit, I wanted to ask you about the publishing industry, the nonfiction industry. Tim Ferriss put out a blog post asking the question, has AI already killed how-to nonfiction? And he tells a story about his books. And he says that on the 2026 run rate, he's down 57 % on sales of books. And he sort of attributes that to some of his books being substitutable with LLMs. Just the idea that if his chef, a four-hour chef book was a bunch of recipes and you can get those directly.

1:15:02And I'm wondering about how you think the publishing industry, the book landscape, there's also this piece in The Atlantic about people just not reading in all anymore. What are you thinking about where we are right now in terms of the publishing industry and where we're going? The only thing on Tim Ferriss. The piece in The Atlantic. Sorry. Yeah, the only thing I was going to say is like the decline in sales like coincides with him just putting way less time into his podcast. Oh, sure. So he's maybe driving less sales. So you have to imagine him not fully pricing in just having one of the biggest podcasts in the world.

1:15:35Yeah. And just driving more and more. And then just slowly doing more competition plus putting less emphasis into it. I think you're probably on to something there. I was going to point out Mel Robbins, whose book will sell eight zillion copies this year. That's nonfiction self-help. It's the exact same genre. and she's blowing the doors off right now. And so I think for every example that you put in, what's true is that the book industry as a whole, and particularly nonfiction, has not had a very good three or four years, a lot of which was because 2020, 21, COVID lockdowns was just an explosive bonanza that everything by comparison to then is not that great.

1:16:15But I think there's a thing too with podcasts and long form writing in books where it's easy to say that people don't have attention spans these days. They want short form video and that's, there's one flip through it and that's it. And it's like, no, the biggest podcasts in the world are like three hour conversations that people listen to all the way through. And so I think it's not that people don't have attention spans. They don't have a lot of tolerance for BS in the way that they used to. And so I think 30 years ago, people would slog through a bad book because they had nothing else to do that day.

1:16:45Whereas now if you start a book and it's bad, you're like, I got 20 other things competing for my attention over here. I'm going to go there. And so if you're still putting out the kind of content that is engaging and interesting and saying something new, people will buy it. They'll listen to it. They'll put effort into it. They'll listen to it for hours. That's still there. Yeah, it's crazy how captured audiences were 30 years ago. It's like you – or let's say like pre-internet. But it's like if there's nothing on TV that you're excited about, there's nothing on radio that you're excited about, and you don't have a book physically in your home and it's like 8 p.m.

1:17:19Like you're kind of like just choosing between options that you're not that excited about. But then now it's like truly infinite possibility. No one, I don't feel like people are bored anymore. Right. Yeah. Yeah. And I think it's, I think there's, there's a lot of times when people, what they think is impatience is actually just a newfound intolerance for BS in content. I think there's a lot of that. Interesting. Yeah. Yeah, I was in a bookstore recently, and the power law of publishing is fully on display because you walk in and the Mel Robbins book, for example, will be shoved in your face with a massive display and tons of copies.

1:17:57And then if you're actually looking for a book, you have to find the section, and it's much harder to dig through. They might not even be in stock. And I would have assumed that the internet would sort of flatten that and lift the tail, but I guess there are power laws everywhere, and so certain books go viral. What I'm interested in is this idea of like there are certain authors that publish a book every year and they sort of just base hit, base hit, base hit. And then there's another version of that playbook, which is have one really defining book, but then continue to franchise it, promote it, add on to just continue to drive sales.

1:18:32And I think that's what Jordy was alluding to a little bit about you have a podcast and you can drive sales to your existing catalog, even if you're not publishing new books. Yeah, I think that power law exists even among the tippity-top authors. Stephen King has written like 50 books, something like that. And most of his sales and most of his fame came from like three. So even among, and like people like Michael Lewis, who's written, I don't know, I'm gonna guess like a dozen books, something like that. And I bet most of his income, sales and fame came for two or three of them. And so some people have a better hit rate than others, but even among the best, I was listening to an interview yesterday with Matt Damon, same thing in movies.

1:19:04He's made dozens of movies. Most of us watching this have never heard of before. And so you see that everywhere. I remember James Clear telling me several years ago, there's 4 million books for sale on Amazon. And if you look at the top five, the top five of the 4 million, it's possible that number one is selling 10 times as many copies as number two. So even though it's a 4 million thing, and even among the top, the power law just gets crazy. Yeah, I think it's the same thing with podcasts. I think Rogan is like an order of magnitude bigger than everybody else, at least on Spotify. uh jordy can't name a single matt damon movie uh or an identity there you go oh yeah that that is the series that you like uh matt damon also famously passed on avatar and he was like you would have made so much money from that uh but james cameron said like the movie it's not a matt damon vehicle it's a it's just a it's a movie that the idea exists regardless of has there been has there been a book written on the power law not the the venture book okay smash malibu but the book on just like every single place at the power law.

1:20:08Cause I'm wondering like, is, does power, power law apply to marriages where like the best marriages are actually 10 times better than, you know? Uh, I would assume, I would assume it does. I think it's one of those big things that's going to influence everything in life. And it throws a lot of people off because it's like, you can be extremely good at what you're doing. Like if you are a really good college basketball player, you might be significantly like there's the difference between that. What was the story I'm thinking of? It was someone, it was an NBA player that people were harassing because he was having a really bad season and he went on a podcast and he was like, the difference between me and you is so much bigger than the difference between me and LeBron.

1:20:50It was like, it's like, once you get to that level, like the, and so you, you, you, you see it everywhere. But couldn't you make the argument that no, the difference between you and LeBron is actually, it's actually, I guess it's the difference still could be bigger, but it could be. I mean, I, I don't, when I was, when my, my sport growing up, I was a ski racer. And if you were a really, really good regional skier, you were not in the top hundred nationally and you were not in the top thousand internationally. It just, it got, and I think it's, it's, it's, it's like that for most sports. How are you, what you're thinking of is algorithms to live by.

1:21:27the computer science of human decisions by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths. It takes well-known computer algorithms and then applies them to everyday life. So a good example is the 37 % rule for choosing. This is like known as the secretary problem. But when selecting amongst a fixed number of options, apartments, job candidates, even potential partners like marriages, spend the first 37 % of your search observing without committing and then choose the next best option that is better than everything you've seen before. And you'll be mathematically optimal. And it takes all these different algorithms and applies them to everyday life.

1:22:06It's a fun book. In parenting, do you spend any time thinking about or trying to identify where your children might be 10 times better or the potential to be 10 times better at something than their peers? Because I look at this between my children, even looking at athletic abilities, I think it's already completely noticeable who's the better, at least natural athlete. And I believe that that will probably carry through throughout their whole life is my intuition. Not to say one. Here's my – not for my kids. Let me tell you a story. So I was a skier growing up, and for my generation, there were two skiers who became head and shoulders above everyone else, Lindsey Vonn and Ted Ligety.

1:22:55They both won Olympic gold medals. Everyone knows Lindsey Vonn now. When Lindsey Vonn was six years old, she was in a different universe of everyone else, of talent. It was so obvious from the time she was a small kid that she was just the best out of anyone. Ted Ligety was not that. He didn't hit a stride until he was like 18, which was so, so rare. and so I always it's it's always interesting that yes there are some people from like from a very early age Tiger Woods is on tv golfing when he was like two as a talented golfer and so there's that but there's also these people that just don't hit it until late in life those are always interesting a lot of entrepreneurs like that that don't really find their stride until they're 30 but with Ted is it possible that he just didn't care enough until he was late in his teenage years and prior to that like he was always that good but just never put the effort in or the time i think this is this might bores me but i think it's so fascinating one of the things with ted is that there are rules about the kind of ski gear that you can use for racing like they have to meet these um these sizes and whatnot and they change the rules at one point so that your skis had to have a certain side cut ted was the first person in the world who figured out how to ski on the new skis and you just completely dominated everyone else for several years after that before they kind of caught up so there's there there's some of that that was interesting but i think for I think that's the rare one.

1:24:12I think to your point, the Lindsey Vonn story is more common when from a young age, they are just so preposterously better than everyone else. Yeah. I want your reaction to this chart that Joe Weisenthal, friend of the show, shared. And we will have the team pull it up. It's the percentage of U.S. household net worth over time. And for a long time, real estate was the dominant place where American households held their net worth. But for the first time, we are seeing that households are increasingly holding equities. Cash and cash equivalents peaked in the 80s and is sort of declining around 10 % of household net worth.

1:24:55But equities have been completely up and to the right. Maybe it's just a temporary dislocation in the stock market. The stock market is doing very, very well. Houses are more expensive, so households are preferencing that. But I'm interested in your take on what this says about U.S. households, but also the psychology of what it means to hold a larger percentage of your wealth in equities versus your house. Yeah, we always talk about the stock market crash in 1929. And I think the statistic was 5 % of Americans own stocks in 1929. So we talk about it as it started the Great Depression, but it was such a small number of people that actually got hit by that.

1:25:37Whereas today, I think the stat is 55 % of Americans own stocks, the vast majority of them in their 401k. Now, and part of that, if you're an investor for the long term, the odds that you're going to experience a 30 % decline or even a 50 % decline are almost 100%. That's just how markets work over time. and does the general population of just like ordinary Americans who are not watching this and listening to finance podcasts and reading finance books, do they have the stomach for that or do they even know that that's the game that they signed up for? I think by and large, the answer is no and even if you do know it, knowing it and experience it in real time can be completely different.

1:26:15The one thing is that like stocks have been over time, nothing is promised in the future, but generating real growth above the rate, like well above the rate of inflation. Real estate is something completely different where particularly if it's the house that you live in, not a rental that you have. I think we've done a lot of damage to Americans by convincing them that rising home prices are a good thing and they make them wealthier. And it is such flawed math because if you buy a house for 500 grand and then sell it for a million, how much money did you make? Well, for most people, once they sell it, they have to buy another house that also inflated in value by 2X over the last same period.

1:26:50So you probably didn't make anything. And so I think there's a lot of like, it looks like wealth on paper with real estate, but it's just a place to live in. And you have to exchange it for another place to live in. And you didn't really make that much over time. So maybe if we're talking real wealth over time, it's a much better situation that we're in now. Yeah, I am interested about, I mean, I know some people who bought in Mill Valley like years ago, decades ago, just because that was a logical place to buy. And it was a nice community. And of course, the house prices are insanely high with the AI boom, with San Francisco booming.

1:27:22But there isn't a logical like, oh, yeah, of course, they'll move to Florida at some point because that's not really what people do culturally. If you are in California, you sort of just retire in the town that you grew up in or live in, raise your kids in. If you can do that, if you can sell a Mill Valley and move to Oklahoma, that's great. That's real wealth. Yeah. But if you sell a Mill Valley and buy a Mill Valley, you can make anything. You're not doing anything. um what uh how do you how are you uh do you ever think about like the different prescriptions for solving the housing crisis we're having saga and jetty on the show tomorrow to talk about it but i'm interested if there's if there's anything that you have uh that you've dug into whether it's through the abundance or permitting or anything that's stuck out to you as uh particularly exciting uh around the way america deals with housing broadly i think i mean it's simple but but it's not easy.

1:28:14It would be around permitting and building more. There's obviously demand for more. There is the ability to build more. It's just that in the vast majority of cities, it's virtually illegal to build where people want to live or at least extremely difficult. It's one thing to say, build more homes. If you're a home developer in California and you want to go build 200 homes, you're going to be waiting in line for years and paying a fortune to actually build that if you can actually get it done. I think the idea that there's a great saying by Connor Sent, who's a great thinker around these topics.

1:28:46And he says, the future is a policy choice. And the reason that home building is so scarce and we don't have enough homes is because we've made a choice to be in that situation. There's no, if you were to left to its own devices, it would be solved not that, you know, in due time. And we did this similar situation at the end of World War II when you had 16 million soldiers come home, there were not nearly enough homes for them. But at the time, it was much easier to build than it is today. And so you had things like Levittown that sprung out of the middle of nowhere, and they were building 25 ,000 homes in a year.

1:29:17And you solve the problem in due time. And so it's simple, but just politically much more difficult to say, like, yes, I think by and large it's permitting. It's not an exciting answer, but we've made the choice to make it difficult to build where people want to live. Yeah. For those who don't know, what is the actual story of Levittown and can that be replicated today? I was in Irvine and it feels like a very planned community. Of course, most of that town was built maybe a hundred years ago but it just driving around and seeing so many apartments and houses it felt like this could be replicated but i don't i'm not exactly sure um how far yeah i mean it was it was the end of world war ii and there were like i said there were all these soldiers who needed homes and by like most of them a lot of them moved back in with their parents which is not what you wanted to do coming home from war and the levitt brothers were home builders.

1:30:06They started buying up abandoned farms in New York and Pennsylvania. And they basically took what Henry Ford figured out for cars, which is like, you have to make the manufacturing process like very step-by-step. And every person has a specific step that they do all day long. And they, they made very small, very cheap, uh, not high quality homes, but they could just bang out tens of thousands of them. And, um, and it, it, it, it, between that and like the GI bill that helped finance a lot of those homes. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say like, it's saved that generation who came home and had nothing.

1:30:39And within a couple of years, allow them to have a good dignified life going forward. Yeah. I've been surprised that we haven't seen more spreading out of, uh, basically like longer commutes or longer distance commutes because we're on the cusp of self-driving cars. Even just a basic Tesla model three has self-driving that can make an hour long commute much more palatable. And then you also have telecommute. And a lot of companies have a work from home Friday policy or some flexibility around that. And I was expecting that there would be some alleviation from the pressure. When I look at the home prices in San Francisco, and then I compare them to the rental prices in San Francisco,$4 ,000 for a one bedroom.

1:31:25And then I look over in Oakland, I'm surprised that we're not seeing more flattening out. But I think that there's still a huge demand for being in the action in a particular area, in a particular town, and even in a neighborhood. And so there's been a lot of pressure on the highest value areas. I don't know. I'd say there's also been a big inflation of expectations over time, which is what you want in society. You want people to expect a better life. But when you talk about Levittown, the houses that they were building back then that were so great for middle-class Americans in the 40s and 50s would not be considered a livable house today.

1:32:00It was, it was 800 square feet for your four or five kids who all shared one bedroom. You had one bathroom for the six of you, no garage, no deck, no air conditioning, like go on down the list. Most people would not consider that an acceptable place today. And again, I always, whenever I point that out, I have to say, I want to live in a world where people have higher expectations over time. That's progress, but it's not comparable over the generations. Yeah. Jordy. I do too. But at the same time, when I moved to the city that we're in now I had an extremely long commute and a terrible apartment.

1:32:35And I had a real roommate. And I, and I think it's just, I think it's me. Well, and I think it's, I think it's like, um, because the life that people want is immediately available on social media to them to view at all times. There's, I think like a, uh, decreased ability to delay gratification. Cause I remember growing up, I'd travel to somewhere. and I'd see like a really big yacht and I'd be like, wow, that's like, you know, pre-internet. You're like, oh, I've never, you know, well, I guess not pre-internet, but like, you know, there wasn't like the first time I saw a yacht, I'd probably never seen like an Instagram video of some athlete doing a backflip off of it.

1:33:13I was just like, oh, that's a totally different like life. At the same time, like I watched MTV Cribs and stuff. I don't know. Yes. I was just, I was just going to bring up MTV Cribs, which had such a profound cultural impact. I'm measuring it because that was the only view into how the other half lives. but what and it was i love i watched every episode of that show when i was younger but what's but was but what was so important about it is that you did not consider those people peers you're like that's that's that's master p of course his bathroom is made out of like yeah that's not a peer of mine sure whereas today on social media you see the yacht and you see the person and you're like that guy like he's supposed to be a peer like i'm supposed to be there yeah and so the fact that it was an obvious celebrity or an athlete and that like shack had a 12-foot bed you didn't expect to have that yourself.

1:33:55My favorite example is like the GT3 RS is like the most, you know, if you ask like a 21 year old guy, what car do you want? If you just get any car right now, a lot of them would say GT3 RS. And so that's my favorite example when talking about personal finance with, you know, people that I know in my life that are just starting their careers is I say like, you know, that car that you see and you just assume like if you work hard, you'll like be able to, you know, get a GT3 RS because that's a car you want to drive on the weekend. Well, you need to make, if you want to buy that car, you basically need to make$850 ,000 in one year in California and be willing to spend the entire amount after taxes that you make just on that car and not have any other expenses for the year.

1:34:39So that is what that car, that is the actual cost of that car, but it's just like put into their face all day long to the point where people just assume like, okay, like if I work hard and I do a good job in life, I should be able to get a GT3 RS. And it's like, it's just so normalized. I just found one for 50K. It has, this is not a salvage title. It has six owners, Florida. It has aftermarket wheels, but it's doable. It's doable. Okay. You have to pull it out of yourself. So if you make six figs and then you spend your entire salary after taxes. It's only had four accidents. Only four accidents.

1:35:17Anyways, Morgan. Still runs. I was going to say, I think tech has done so much to expectations over time. I was in Tahoe this week with my family where I grew up, and we were driving past, and the biggest, most beautiful house in town, this mansion in Tahoe, it's so beautiful. And I told my wife, and I said, the people who lived there when I lived here back in the 90s, that was an orthopedic surgeon. And we were like, there is no way an orthopedic surgeon could afford that house today. That house would be a tech CEO's house. But back then, orthopedic surgeon was the highest earner in town. There were no product managers at Google making$850 back then.

1:35:51And so it created what we used to think of like jobs that every town has, dentists, doctors, lawyers, those kind of things, used to be number one. Now they're number 47 on the earners in town. Now you've got to do orthopedic surgery SaaS. If you're the founder of an orthopedic surgery SaaS product, then you get the house. It's the same thing. Or dental SaaS or something like that. Yeah. No, it really has been like a crazy, crazy boom, and it's driven up everything all over the place. Jordan, anything else? Do you ever plan to retire? I think it depends. I always think the purpose of financial independence is to get to choose your problems because you're going to have problems either way.

1:36:33And I was talking about this with someone earlier, of people who've sold their business. I don't know if you guys know two people who've sold their business recently. I don't know. But the number of them who went on to regret it. and the reason is this won't apply to you guys is because they left their business and they realized on day one, like that was their purpose. And once they lofted it, that was their identity. And they woke up the next morning with tons of money and no purpose. And I would say like, if you think work is hard, try boredom. It's way harder. It is way more psychologically taxing than hard work.

1:37:04People want good problems in life. And so retire. No, I'll, I'm doing, I work very differently now and do a different level of work, less work than I did five years ago, but I'm still doing things to keep myself busy. Cause if I didn't, I would slip into boredom and then probably depression very quickly. So I guess to answer your question now, yeah, there's some formula. It's like how much you should invest in bonds is like your age minus 100 minus your age or something. It's like how much free time you should have should be like 100 minus your age. So when you're 20, you're working 80 % of your waking hours, but when you're 50, you're taking half the time off or something.

1:37:39I don't know. There's some, like, you know, you want to have some sort of balance that you probably can't go a hundred hour weeks into your eighties unless, I don't know, maybe somebody will, but, uh, it's a big problem because in finance, we spend so much effort making sure people have enough money to retire and focusing on that number and no time whatsoever asking question, what are you going to do once you're retired? And for a lot of people, they retire, they got plenty of money, they saved their whole life. And then after two weeks of retirement, they wake up and like, who am I? I don't even know what I am anymore.

1:38:10What's my identity? What's my purpose? And if they retire at 60, they might have another 40 years to live, like an entire extra life to live doing nothing. Yeah. Long time. Nurburgring track time. Sub seven minutes. Make it happen. That'll be John. That'll be the 80 year old on the track. Just shaving off milliseconds. All right, grandpa. Let's put you to bed. I think I'd have a disadvantage forever. I don't know. Maybe. Let me flip that around to you guys. Young guys, successful, soldier business. Do you think you'll ever retire? No. Absolutely not. I saw my late grandfather was sharp as a tack until about three months after he retired.

1:38:52And I think that the daily habit of just putting in work, using his mental capacities, was contributing to his longevity. And to me, building companies is like an act of creation. And there's nothing as satisfying or enjoyable to me in this whole world than creating. And so to me, it's like, you know, you're asking an artist, like, do you think you'll ever stop, like, you know, making art? Yeah. Yeah, you might dial it back. You might do these different things. But, no, I'm so fascinated to – I like to imagine, like, if I was 80 years old right now living the same life, what would I be choosing to work on?

1:39:51What ideas? is and i think they'll be quite uh i think they'll be quite different than the things that are interesting to me now um yeah but i look forward i would say like there are some fields that i really admire when people quit while they're ahead whether it's like seinfeld in 1998 shows on top of the world and he's like no we're done that's i've given it all around to we're out of here but he didn't retire he's he's still on tour today doing a million other things yeah and so the The ability to say, I could probably squeeze more juice out of this career, whatever that career might be, but I'm proud of what I've achieved and now I'm going to go do something else.

1:40:27It's not retirement, but I admire that versus you could easily imagine a history where Seinfeld went another 10 seasons and it sucked and it just kind of died on the vine. You could easily imagine that history, which is kind of what The Simpsons have done over the last 20 years. And so I really like when people quit while they're ahead. I think it's really admirable. there's also something there's like a kind of business that can only be started by someone who doesn't need it to work basically and you see this with startups where like you know an entrepreneur will have an exit and they'll start working on something and then they'll just be toiling in obscurity for years and and you know um and and eventually they can build something valuable out of it but a young entrepreneur wouldn't necessarily do that because they're like I have to make the SaaS so that I can raise the next round, so I can do all these different things.

1:41:21And so I also think it just changes. When you have like, if you can set yourself up to be able to take more risk, there's interesting businesses to be built. Yeah. I forget who said this years ago. It may have been Mike Solana. I might be getting that wrong. But he said like the number of founders that he's met who sold their business, cashed out, and then they said, I'm going to take two or three years off to just chill and ski with my family and hang out. And then I'm going to come back. And they come back after three years. And I think the way he phrased it was like, every one of them is so smooth brained at that point.

1:41:52Like you just lost it. They lost the edge. They lost the edge of what you had. And so the idea too that it's a muscle that you got to keep going or else it's just going to wither away is important too. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it seems like there's a different set of challenges that the post-exit founders can take on that works. But if the business requires having really firm contact with a large swath of consumers and you haven't been to the store in four years because you now have a personal shopper, you might be out of touch there. But if you're solving some sort of problem on the geopolitical level, marshalling billions of capital, and it's like that was an opportunity that was only open to you after you exited, then that becomes something that you can accelerate into a little bit better.

1:42:45but it's sometimes hard for people to go back into the garage if the startup idea requires those garage years of prototyping something at a very low level and going zero to one on something that's so niche and so requires contact with broad reality. What do you think the value of vacations is? Because to me, I basically, I'm 30 now, my 20s, I probably didn't take, you know, more than four days off, you know, at any point in my 20s. And I used to think like, wow, I'm stressed, I should like, get away and like, but ultimately, that would just try to create that would, in my experience, create more stress, because I'm like, the thing that is causing stress, I'm not addressing head on and, and solving, but I'm curious in your life what you feel like, you know, what benefit you feel like you get from vacation, because I don't think like stress people going on vacation, like solves stress.

1:43:53No, if anything, it's because if they actually detach on vacation, then they come back and they have 47 ,000 unread emails and just more problems piled up in there. Yeah. Detaching is not necessarily even healthy to be like, I'm just going to ignore the problems in my business or whatever for four days. And then it's like, you may as well just go on a bender or something like that you know yeah but i do think it's true is that for a lot of people the reason that they actually go on vacation is because they have to travel somewhere else in order to justify detaching if they just stayed home and detached they would feel some sense of shame but if they're like oh we're going to maui so now i'm going to detach it gives them the excuse to do that because like is being in maui actually that much better than being back at home like there are aspects of it but i think what you really enjoy is giving yourself permission to be someone else and to be on a different schedule that you could not bear if you were just staying back at home.

1:44:42My wife doesn't like traveling. She likes being at home. And I think this is part of her philosophy. If people don't actually like traveling, they just don't like being at home. And if you enjoy being at home, your desire to actually do it really diminishes. I travel a lot for work, so I don't have a ton of desire. My idea of a vacation is not getting on a plane this week. But I think it tends to be true. I've used this example before. If I'm building sandcastles with my kid on the beach in Maui, and that's a 10 out of 10. Being at home playing Legos on the living room floor is at least a nine.

1:45:14What I actually enjoy is time with them. It's not flying for seven hours and spending 10 grand on the trip. It's spending uninterrupted time with the family. But back to the original point, I think some people have to vacation in order to have uninterrupted time with their family. It's impossible any other way. Yeah. Yeah. When after kids, the idea of like a seven day trip to Hawaii. I'm like, so you want me to go through two days of just like pure chaos and suffering for everyone in the family where the kids are uncomfortable because they're going to the airport and they're in the airport and they're on a plane and they're waiting around.

1:45:55And then, and then it's like sort of, you bookend the experience. So you're like, you come out of it, not necessarily like to me, I was like, I don't come out of trips feeling like Take a boat, turn it into a three month trip. There you go. It's probably better. My wife has this thing too, where she says the best part of every trip is coming home. And I think when we do go on vacation, it gives her a newfound appreciation for home. After you've been in a tiny hotel room and then you come home, your kitchen feels like it's the biggest thing in the world. The bathroom feels like it's the biggest thing in the world.

1:46:22And you appreciate what you already have more. We were joking last night, not seriously, but we were like, we should intentionally take worse and worse vacations. We can appreciate home that much more. Wait, we have a buddy who at least historically would take a, like get a round trip flight over the course of a day if he needed to work on something. So he would, he would like just fly to some random, like basically book like a$200 round trip ticket. Lock in. And just to get like something done that they were avoiding. Wow. That makes, that seems like there's much easier ways to do that. Drink a coffee or something.

1:46:57Anyway, thank you so much for coming on the show, Morgan. Great catching up. Great to see you. Have a great summer. We'll talk to you soon. Take care. You're the man. Let me tell you about console.com. Console builds AI agents that automate 70 % of IT, HR, and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for assets, requests, and password resets. And let me also tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. We have Mark Gurman joining the show in just a few minutes. Did you say the Gurmanator? The Gurmanator is back in the Ultradome, getting us up to speed on what's happening in the thermonuclear war between Apple and OpenAI.

1:47:36And so he is here. Let's bring in Mark Gurman, the Gurmanator himself, to take us through his excellent reporting. As always, congratulations on the scoop. Take us through it. Friday, what was your day like? What happened? What's the headline? Friday was great, you know, end of the work week. But for me, there's really no end. It's Monday, Tuesday, it's all week, seven days, 24-7. Apple suing OpenAI. I didn't find it to be that big of a shock. I think things have been brewing for several months. This was a two-year relationship that went south pretty much in the first year. I think it was doomed from the beginning.

1:48:23We can get into that. But OpenAI had been pillaging Apple's hardware engineering ranks, cloud department, many other aspects of the company for over a year. 400 people hired by OpenAI. And people move between companies all the time. But one company hiring 400 people from another company in such a short period of time, it's absolutely insane. And Apple, even with all the competition, we talked about it from Amazon and Microsoft and Meta, has never gone through this kind of, they've never been pillaged in this way. Yeah, it's not like Bezos got 400 people from Apple working on the Fire Phone. And everyone, I've seen a million decks where we're like, we got this guy who worked on iOS at Apple.

1:49:13And it's like, someone says they worked on iOS at Apple. It's good for the resume. Whether it's true or not, every company likes to say, oh, we got this big wig from Apple. And then you ask people at Apple about this person, they're like, I've never heard of this guy. He didn't even work here. But that's besides the point. The real story here is that Apple had known for a while now that there was probably some shady stuff going on when you have that many people. I mean, the person running the hardware organization at OpenAI, a guy named Tang Tan, he was heavily respected when he was at Apple. But once he left Apple, it was wartime.

1:49:49This was a person who had been running the iPhone design team for many years, paired with Johnny Ive, who was the designer alongside Steve Jobs for decades. Ive's successor, Evan Tankey, who ran the ID studio, the industrial design studio for three years after Ive left. They set out to build the product to take down the iPhone. You can ask yourself, is that even impossible. But on the other hand, the fact that these people, you know, worked for Apple for so long and they wanted to create sort of the antidote to Apple, it's a scary thing for Apple. And that coincided with Apple facing its own AI struggles.

1:50:27Right now, their hardware engineering organization is going through the biggest transformation in decades with John Turner stepping up to become CEO and Johnny Scrooge, the chips guy, now becoming in charge of hardware engineering himself. He's a visionary when it comes to management and silicon, but the big question is, is he a visionary when it comes to products? Obviously, John Ternus will help with that as well. So there's some big questions at Apple right now. Obviously, it's been a very long time since they had a big new hit. The Vision Pro was a complete flop. And so this company combining the best AI, open AI, using some of Apple's best engineering talent, plus 390 of their best friends from Apple.

1:51:09It's a scary sight for Apple. They maintain that this lawsuit was not about slowing down OpenAI. It's because they were able to find, they're not calling this, but I can't think of a better term. They knew some shady stuff was going on and they found a smoking gun, right? Smoking gun was this young iPhone engineer who went from Apple to OpenAI at the beginning of this year. And it's a crazy story. He kept a MacBook. He had this relationship. They're not saying if it was a romantic relationship or whatnot, but I have to imagine that probably had a component there. He was working with this girl who was still at Apple, who eventually went over to OpenAI, and he had found some flaw in their cloud network and was working with her to get stuff, even though he was still working at OpenAI.

1:51:54So you could make a Netflix special out of this, or you can make an Apple TV special out of this, but they'll never go for that. Maybe they'll be on Amazon Prime. A lot of interesting stuff, yeah. And then they kept digging. They found a bunch of stuff on Ting Tan and they built this lawsuit around this guy who worked at Apple for 25 years. Everything that I'm told about Ting Tan is obviously a brilliant guy. He flew very close to the sun is what a few people told me. I'm not going to say he did shady things, but he did what he needed to do to help make the iPhone the most successful consumer gadget and it's well-designed piece of machinery.

1:52:30most successful consumer product ever, one could argue. So they knew some of his tactics. He helped build that iPhone. So you're saying there was an awareness at Apple that he was basically always playing to win very aggressively, potentially blurring some lines. Yes. So they knew their players. And so they knew this guy was going to do anything to get things done. But they weren't able to sue them until they found this kid. One thing I'll say, and it's kind of unfortunate, there's two people at OpenAI on LinkedIn with the same name. There's the guy who's named the lawsuit, and there's another dude at OpenAI with the same name.

1:53:11And maybe he works for TV. No, I'm just joking. And I see a bunch of people posting on LinkedIn or on Twitter and whatnot a screenshot. I'm like, you've got the wrong dude. That's interesting. So yeah, whenever there's like the big tragedy or whatever, everyone goes out to try to find the guy's name and everyone posts the wrong Facebook account. So this guy is getting blamed for getting blamed for it, but it has nothing to do with him. Yes. There's also an actor with the name Chang Liu. And he has some very iconic photos on the Internet because he's like basically a male model. Oh, that's funny.

1:53:50I think I saw that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Chang Liu. He looks like, yeah, just like a model straight out of the runway. What does the timeline for this case look like? I was digging into XAI's lawsuit against OpenAI, filed about a year ago, just was dismissed, I guess, a month ago. Is that about App Store ranking? No, no, no. So SpaceX currently has an ongoing lawsuit with Apple about the App Store ranking. That has not been decided. But separately, XAI sued OpenAI for poaching employees and potentially getting those employees to share secrets of how Grok is trained. That's the allegation. And that case was just dismissed last month on the 15th.

1:54:37But it took a year to get there. And I'm wondering, because we have that as an example. We also have the Samsung-Apple battle that took eight years and ultimately ended in a settlement. And I'm just wondering about how you're feeling about the pace of things. There was sort of a quick back and forth on X, some comments from OpenAI leaders. But how will this story actually evolve and play out? It all depends. I mean, OpenAI is going to fight Apple like hell. They'll have a law firm involved. In fact, OpenAI hired a law firm. They won't use chat, codex, bearish new models. They actually hired a law firm a couple months ago.

1:55:15and they were going to sue Apple over the relationship when it came to the Apple Intelligence Siri deal. So they've got lawyers looking into this and working on this. I wonder, so Apple's saying that they reached out to OpenAI in February about their concerns over trade secrets and whatnot. I wonder if OpenAI started preparing its lawsuit against Apple as part of a down-the-line countersuit type of situation or is in response to Apple's letter of every, neither here nor there. I think this could take several months to years. It really depends. The discovery process is going to take a while. But if I'm going to be really honest with you, I don't think the courtroom timeline really matters.

1:55:58I mean, it matters to some extent. But the bigger picture already happened. If you're an Apple employee and you're thinking about joining OpenAI right now, first of all, you're going to keep your mouth shut. You're not going to tell anyone, right? They're going to walk you out. It is not a good thing to be someone at Apple right now who's thinking about joining OpenAI. You're going to have Apple security all over you. Your manager is going to despise you. And everything you did, they're going to be watching every website you went to on your computer for the last month. So you've got to know that you're going to be really clean if you're thinking about that.

1:56:32Yeah. Yeah. So if you're thinking about going to OpenAI and you're at Apple, the way Apple wrote this lawsuit, you'd have to be out of your mind to not think twice about it. And I think that Apple needed to stop the bleeding to open AI. And this lawsuit is certainly going to help with that. The other thing is, is you're going to have Tang Tan, all those guys caught up in depositions and discovery and meetings with lawyers now. It's like, how are you supposed to launch a product? How are you supposed to do your job if you're stuck in the office all day with lawyers? Everything's going to need to be cleaned up.

1:57:05They're going to need to work in a clean room like environment now. They're going to investigate what kind of Apple IP is in there. And even if opening, I did nothing wrong, all of the work that's going to need to be done to prove that this is going to be a big waste of time for everyone. So by just filing the lawsuit, Apple accomplished quite a bit. So how do you think a company like Apple, who notoriously is very protective about internal secrets, process, supplier, all these different things, is in the middle of getting the craziest talent raid in consumer electronics history and then just has someone go out the door and they're not even – You know, we were reading Ben Thompson's piece earlier, just, and he was kind of mocking Apple's security.

1:57:57And as I was reading the complaint, I was thinking back to the deal sort of rippling drama that happened last year and how the guy was kind of set up and in some way. and um and i was thinking like is apple is apple savvy enough to to like try to create a smoking gun by being like yeah let's not let's just let it yeah this is full tinfoil yeah yeah apple just made this whole thing up no no no no i'm not saying that i'm not saying i'm not saying that at all i'm just saying like it would be crazy to me if you get you're getting people poached and you're not like oh yeah we should make sure all the oh you're leaving the company sure yeah just keep your laptop kind of thing oh yeah yeah that'd be wild wild twist well i mean i i'm sure more information will come out uh and the discovery process is going to be very exciting very interesting totally i think apple has a very high burden of proof here from a legal standpoint i'm not a lawyer but being able to prove that its ip is within certain products is going to be it's going it's going to be difficult to prove yeah so we'll see if they're able to do it also the narrowing of like what is a trade secret because like it's been this like awkward reality in the ai race that when a ai researcher leaves for another lab they basically take the architecture that isn't necessarily patented and is sort of a trade secret like they take that with them and they just say oh yeah like we should probably train a model of this size or we should probably include some of this training data and that's why we've seen the frontier but that's very different from hardware stuff with patents.

1:59:35Right. I would like to know what trade secrets or what Apple will be able to claim as a trade secret ends up in these products. Because as you know, and everyone listening to this knows, hardware is incredibly commoditized. There are hundreds of companies that make electronics in the same space at Apple all over the world. And being able to prove that you're using Apple technology to release your phone and build your phone and develop your phone, that's going to be very difficult. I don't see this being a clean victory for Apple if it goes to a jury trial. They don't – my guess is they're not going to have – remember the Samsung trial?

2:00:12This is what Samsung phones looked like before the iPhone. This is what the iPhone looked like. This is what Samsung phones looked like, right? They broke it down so a third grader would understand it. It was very easy to follow. Short of that, I just don't see how Apple could win a jury case here. And if you read the complaint, um, And over and over again, Apple acknowledges that they don't really know what is really happening here. They know enough to know there's something shady going on and we need to discovery to figure out what is going on. And so they'll do that. But I'd be very surprised if they find something.

2:00:48The other part of this is there's a few things that you can really make a trade secret case on right now. That's silicon. And Apple has very proprietary silicon code, the way they develop chips and design chips. And they went after this company called Revos that Meta ended up buying. And they got major changes made to how Revos operates. The other one you mentioned is AI. There's no AI thing that OpenAI is stealing from Apple. And from the chip side, everything we know is that OpenAI is using Qualcomm and third-party chip providers. So I'm very curious to see what Apple ends up finding. I'm sure they'll find some good text messages and emails, though.

2:01:29Yeah. Can you take us back in time to Johnny Ives' departure, the birth of I.O., how that was perceived within Apple? Because it feels like when the acquisition happened, it was 55 employees at I.O. at the time, a lot of them ex-Apple. and Ben Thompson pointed out that he said, I think Apple feels betrayed not just by Tan, but also Johnny Ive. Start with the fact that Ive framed his partnership with OpenAI as an attempt to undo the harms he thought were caused by the smartphone, not exactly a ringing endorsement. So you see these people leave and they're like, oh, we need an antidote to the social media thing.

2:02:07This is a common thread that people pull on in their second act of their career. But what was the IO journey? Was it pretty smooth when that happened? Was this something like if you play out a different scenario and IO is just consulting for, you know, a Samsung and Ferrari and a bunch of other, you know, companies that are not like directly at each other's throats, new hyperscalers, a disruptive AI take off all of that. How does the story look then? so the story I'm not going to get into the Johnny I stuff right now but you know Tang Tan he tells John Ternus by the way the other side of this thing is him and Ternus hate each other happy to go into that but Ternus he was up for the SVP of hardware job in 2020 Tang Tan and a lot of the people at Apple who now are at IO and at OpenAI they wanted Tang to be the new head of hardware engineering because they enjoyed working with him on the product design side of things and the ID studio and product design works very closely together.

2:03:12Tang had run the iPhone side of things. Ternus for a number of years was running the iPad and the Mac side of things. He had felt that a lot of the core technologies that Tang was working on, you know, they got iPhone priority and he didn't really want to share that with the iPad and the Mac team. You know, now Ternus, Tim Cook, they're sort of getting the last laugh, sort of giving Tang that reputation that he's not going to ever be able to drop of being someone who's sort of, they didn't say the words, but a ringleader around this. So that's what happened. He tells Apple at the end of 23 he's leaving.

2:03:46Ternus lets him stick around through February of 24 because Tang's role at Apple was so big. He had his tentacles and so many different things. They actually had to replace him by splitting up his responsibilities, if I remember correctly, across five or six or seven different people. Wow. So it took a lot of time to unwind. He, behind the scenes, was already working with Johnny Ive and Sam Altman and some of these other folks on creating this company. I think the origin story of IO is they knew all along that they were going to get acquired by OpenAI. The other part, and this sort of got varied when OpenAI acquired IO, but OpenAI already owned 25 % of IO, if I remember correctly, for a year or maybe more.

2:04:30before the acquisition of OpenAI buying IO was announced. So that's pretty interesting. Neither here nor there, IO, they're still some of the best talent who's ever worked at Apple. Combining the best talent that's ever worked at Apple with the AI acumen of OpenAI is a scary site, I would say. Oh no, they're going to have to pivot to a VR headset. My dream. I just want another VR headset. That's all I want, but I don't think I'm getting it. Yeah, me and me only. I'm the only one that's going to get it. It's rough. What else is new in Apple world? What else are you covering? Outside of this. Lots of stuff to come.

2:05:19Apple's going to start its biggest new product period in its history this fall. And at higher prices, right? The memory shortage is very real. it was sort of like a delayed announcement post WWDC but you know the the the strategy there was like rip the band-aid off after WWDC but with enough time for everyone to absorb the news before the products are launched is that generally the the theory there well you know they hit the point where they couldn't impact their margins anymore obviously the reporting earnings at the end of this month, so they'll talk more about that. But the big picture here is the iPhone is going to get its price hike in September.

2:06:03Everything I'm told is that the cost to build because of the memory makes these phones$150 to$200 more expensive a unit. So I think they're going to raise the prices by$150 to$200. They don't want to give up that margin. I mean, the fact that nobody's buying the Vision Pro and Apple hyped the price up by$200 anyways because of the memory tells you everything you need to know. This is not a company that's going to compromise on its margins. Sure. Is there any world where, uh, vertical integration around memory is on the table? Like going deeper, they're locked. Even like the Southwest bought all those like futures on oil and had cheap gas and cheap flights for a long time.

2:06:38Like, uh, you know, even if you're not AGI built and you don't build the foundation model, there's still a world where you go lock up really long, uh, memory contracts and keep your prices down. I don't see it happening. just not culturally the value I don't see it happening I think they're trying to get the suppliers to expand how has Apple's relationship with TSMC evolved or changed across the AI boom well I think the long and the short of it is that Apple's still the preferred customer of TSMC but there are plenty of other customers now that are a big piece of the pie and so I think the relationship still remains very strong.

2:07:20But I don't think this is exclusively because of the AI boom. And you can see now Apple looking at secondary, potential third suppliers on Silicon. You've seen that with Intel. They've talked to Samsung as well. But the TSMC relationship, everything I understand, is still as strong as ever. It's just Apple's not the only game in town as a customer at this point. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come break it down for us. We appreciate you. You got it. Hop it on. Thank you. Congrats again on a major scoop. How much time did you – were you able to pre-write your article before the actual complaint was live?

2:08:02Or did it go live and then you wrote it? Did I write my article before the complaint was live? Like did you know it was about – Good question. I'll tell you next time.

2:08:16Thank you so much. Great to see you, Mark. See you guys. We'll talk to you soon. I'll see you. Goodbye. Let me tell you about Public. Whether you're a long Apple, short Apple, Public has investing for those who take it seriously. Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service. Let me also tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds, online, in-store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents. Yes. Yeah, I can see why he wouldn't actually want to answer that question after I set it up.

2:08:47He knows everything. Nothing happens in Cupertino without Mark Gurman knowing first. There's an interesting AI threshold that was broken over the weekend. I didn't know that I wanted my goalposts in this particular area, but I like this. So Ethan Mollick shared this. He says, this was one of those impressive AI thresholds for me. I gave GPT 5.6 soul in codex control over my computer and asked it to win the daily challenge for the game Slay the Spire 2 randomized factors so it can't cheat. You can't just look up the answer. And he said it worked for five hours making complex game choices and won.

2:09:27And I've been a huge fan of Slay the Spire. I really enjoy this game. I don't know that I didn't know that there was a there was a sequel. I guess there's a sequel out already. But it is sort of a it's a slow paced game. It's turn-based, so you can take as long as you want to make every decision. And so it's not real-time, so it's somewhat suitable for this. But it makes me very, very clear that these are great benchmarks for computer use. Because you can RL on certain Pokemon benches. The data will flow in once it becomes a big trend. But if you can just fire up some random game that you find personally interesting and watch a coding agent sort of win that game just through computer use, that's going to be a very visceral feel the AGI moment for a lot of people.

2:10:20What do you think? I mean, yeah, I think the current coding models are not good at this because they're like a little bit too slow. Yeah. But if you remember, Standard Intelligence had that computer agent model where it was like playing games in the browser. Yeah. So that's like a very different architecture from like what, you know, Codex is using right now or whatever cloud code. But yeah, I think it should be very possible. So, yeah, I mean, there's been a lot of advancements in AI that can win games, but it needs a very specific harness. Like it always needs to have some sort of like the output is basically JSON or something.

2:10:56And that's translated into actions in the game. What's so cool about this demo is that there is no harness. It's just moving the mouse and clicking the buttons, and it learns all of that on the fly, which I think is really cool, which means that we need to move the goalpost one more time because we are coining and we are creating Rustbench, which is not the programming language Rust. It is the level in Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2, right? You need to be able to beat Geordi on Rust if you're building a coding agent. Isn't it Cod 4? Oh, is it called MW2? Wait, which one is it? We play Modern Warfare 2.

2:11:35We play, yeah, we play COD and we play Rust. And the fact that you guys can't even get it straight. We are going to set up codex on Rust and we are going to 1v1 it and hopefully defeat it for a very long time because humans must stay in control. But I have a feeling that the AI will win eventually. But it might take the Cerebris chips. it's going to have to think pretty quickly, think on its feet, because five hours to win Slay the Spire, I think it takes a normal person like maybe 30 minutes, 45 minutes to win one of those challenges. We're getting called not real gamers. It's really rough right now.

2:12:12We're getting absolutely destroyed. Damn, young John would be just so disappointed. It's been a while. Let me tell you about Codex. Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents and playing video games now. Whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflow, Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish. And we have our next guest with us in the team. This is big. And relates to what we were talking about earlier. What's going on, guys? How are you guys doing? Yo, thank you guys for having us. And congrats. Thank you.

2:12:42Congrats on the acquisition. Thank you. I remember seeing Codex ads, Cerebras ads. Yeah. I'm high for you. Yeah, yeah. Thank you. Great to see you. And Michael, we are honored to have you on the show. So, Nico, why don't... uh we we've been dreaming actually dreaming about the like dreaming about this moment we've talked we've we've john and i have talked on and off air about wanting to get the greatest excel jockeys on the show yeah we finally did it courtesy of nico so maybe quick introductions nico yeah set the scene for us why are we talking why are the three of us talking with the excel world champion for sure for sure um yeah guys i'm nico we chatted about a year ago when we launched the first like superhuman excel agent we launched shortcut caused like a big storm and we've been like heads down in spreadsheet hell for like a year trying to build an agent that was really really freaking good yeah um a whole combination of things happened that i felt like we did pass this threshold where maybe it's at the level of a michael jarman or dim early and i'll let michael introduce himself but i flew down to san diego last week nervous as hell calendared a studio we rented it out uh and competed live on four official championship models me versus michael And of course, I had shortcut, but Michael had his big brain.

2:13:57There you go. Michael, when did you first name? Do you remember your first Excel session? That's a great question. I think it would have been when I was about seven or eight. I think for some reason I decided I wanted to put the 2002 World Cup in Excel. I mean, somebody else had already done this because somebody else was running the tournament. but I decided that seven-year-old me could do it instead. That's my earliest memory with Excel. But yeah, since then, sort of built a career doing various things in Excel. And it's now a competitive esport for reasons that I still don't really understand.

2:14:35But it's fantastic. There's a great community around it. It's surprisingly watchable. And yeah, I won that competition in 2024. There's a financial modeling sort of World Cup that is sort of a little quieter. I won that last year, which is why Nico decided that I should represent humanity and see if we can all keep our jobs. What is the shape of the challenges in an esports competition around Excel? How much randomness is in there? I mean, I've seen the screen recordings where you have to change the color of a bunch of cells, reshuffle, sort things, write formulas. But how much do you know going in?

2:15:13how how defined is like the the the scope of problem that they're going to give you yeah i know the videos you're talking about it's it's some dude who like speed runs like doing all that that's not what we do um that i do not have the dexterity for that at all interesting um so what we do is it's more sort of problem solving in excel a bit like a hackathon essentially so you know you'd be modeling some sort of board game or you know navigating around a map uh the the year i won you sort of had 20 characters in world of warcraft because they were sponsoring it that year yeah and you sort of had to try to track them leveling up and doing quests and whatnot um it can be very very random uh like what comes up like whether or not it's your sort of question or someone else's like there's a vast array of things that people can do using spreadsheets so uh yeah the question makers do make a good effort of trying to make a variety of uh topics people And then on the actual grading, how much is qualitative versus like once the solution has been found, the buzzer buzzes and it's deterministic every single time, like pure math versus there.

2:16:20So, you know, you got a nine out of ten from this judge because there's some style points in there. No, there's no marks for style at all, which I think is for the best. I think if people had to spend time making things look pretty, I don't think it would be nearly as entertaining. It's entirely deterministic, like somebody else has already calculated what the answers are. Got it. And then as you're copying them in, they either go, yeah, you've got them right, or no, you haven't. Okay. Is there anyone who tries to basically eschew Excel entirely and solve the problem with Visual Basic? Because if I understand correctly, Excel has like a VBA backend, and you can basically write programming language.

2:17:01You can just write code. Yeah, absolutely. So there's nobody who tries to solve it entirely in Visual Basic just because anybody who's watched this or watching this who's coded in VBA knows it's a terrible language. It's so slow to get going. There's bits, there's chunks of code people have, especially for things like looking at the colors of cells. Like if you've got a map and like the blue cells of water, the green cells of land, there's no native way in Excel to do that with formulas. So you need VBA for that. There is one guy who there's now Python and Excel. That's been there for about two years, I think.

2:17:36And like you write some Python code, it gets sent to Microsoft, they run it, they send you back the answer. And there's one guy who competes in that and does quite well. His general thing is he's very slow to get going. But when he gets going, he sort of really starts to pick up pace. So, again, it's a little bit of the randomness of what sort of case comes up. Some suits him, some suits him less. And then what are the rules around artificial intelligence, co-pilots? AI is coming to Excel. Do you think competitors will freeze on a particular version of Excel that doesn't have AI? Or will there be an AI subcategory that allows you to use some co-pilots, everything, unlimited, unrestricted, and no rules apply categories?

2:18:20How will all that play out? yeah so ai is banned in the main competition it's getting increasingly difficult to police because uh it's it's making stuff that looks more and more like a human would compared to some time maybe 18 months ago um maybe they'll start running like an ai-assisted competition i know a few people have talked about that i don't think it'll be very popular like you look at the world chess championship people watch that there is a world chess engine championship people don't watch that as much. So, but yeah, it's currently banned. I think we're still going to want to keep on the latest version of Excel because they're adding other stuff to it that's quite helpful.

2:18:57Like they added regex about a year ago. So we didn't have that. Some people would complain. But yeah, at the moment, it's kind of an honor code. Like when you get to Vegas, where it is to do the finals live and you obviously can't just be like, I chat GPT, do this for me because someone will notice. At home, it's currently an honor code, which is something we're finding harder and harder to police. Yeah, that makes sense. So Nico, what are you learning from Excel Championships? Going up against the scope. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is your competition. Is there training data to be learned? Are there sort of like the rough edges of the spiky intelligence?

2:19:31You notice things at the top tier level that then can be applied for everyday users that use your product. How are you actually working together? Yeah, yeah, for sure. I wanted to know that like one could you really compete at this high level and what has to be true for you to get there and how much of this is like mastering the art of using ai versus how much could you like institute into the product as like a first class just experience for everybody and it turns out that like you have to be really fucking good at using sorry yeah really good at using ai um to even have a chance so like when i competed i actually did some practice cases at home all weekend before leading up and like ai will take the same way encoding like the path of least resistance.

2:20:12It'll be like, okay, well, I didn't check every single question. I looked at the hints and then decided what I should answer. And I'm like, no. And you'll see this in my prompts. I'm like, do a blank space audit, spin off adversarial review sub-agents of multi-different model types at the frontier to see that they think differently and I want you to catch yourself. And with enough verification loops, you can clearly get 100 % on any realistically hard challenge that is verifiable. But that's not how most people use AI. And I wanted to know what it required to get there and then work backwards.

2:20:39like how do you make this into the product because um there's a trade-off to these things and you know i actually didn't even use the best model like i didn't use fable i had to use opus 4 8 fast because it's the right spot of the pareto frontier because i would probably have lost on speed to michael if i if i used fable because we were getting 100 accuracy on almost every question but i was you know faster because of the model i had chosen is there strong transfer learnings from these verifiable tasks versus the less verifiable stuff that people do in in Excel all day long. Like, like the average investment banker who's doing a DCF, like it's not like at the end of the day, they're like, yep, the share price should be$200.

2:21:16You know, you're, you're building a case. Right. Right. So in, I would say AI is better suited for the contest than it is for real Excel work in that like, this is like you asked first, which is, is this programmatically verifiable? Like, is there true or not true? And the answer is yes, here, because we have a contest. But if this was judged by a committee of like experts based on taste, it would be way harder. Now, you can say that as AI becomes more tasteful, and it is, you see this on front ends, like it's getting a taste for what looks right. We benefit from that, but there's another more difficult form of verification, which is like, okay, well, there's 20 ways to make a DCF.

2:21:51They all look great, but one is specific to your company. How do you learn that? And that is the real long tail product learning curve that we bake in with our customers. That's the real challenge right now is AI will do things right, but there's a million. There's a million right ways. Among, among your customers, what does demand for speed look like? I mean, we were talking about cerebris, like, uh, there's this trade-off and I feel like for like the nature of an investment banker is at least on the junior level is often the MD is like, turn this around ASAP because the client is meeting in an hour and I need you to do as fast as possible.

2:22:25And there's no excuse for, well, I'm using a really solid model, but it's going to take five hours to get back to me. What does demand look like? What are customers telling you? Oh, man. I don't think enough people are talking about Cerebrus or whatever other alternative ways there are to get to whatever tokens per second that was. It was like 15 times faster. Just ASICs broadly. Every company has a different style. It's going to open up computer use. It's going to open up everything. You have to hit a certain level of competency and accuracy first before it even matters at all. But we are sort of there with Sol and Fable.

2:22:55Now, for example, even with Opus 4.8 Fast, we turn an operating model build out with 15 years of historic goals for quarters. That can take 30 hours for a hedge fund to build and then two hours to update every quarter. We do that in one hour and then 10 minutes. Now, we could get that to 10 times faster. And that's actually what's going to be a huge unlock because hedge funds, for example, want to track not 200 companies a pod, but 2 ,000. But you cannot do that because they're Excel firepower bottlenecked. There's another bottleneck, which I think the future will care about. But it's like, even if it's faster, it has to run headlessly.

2:23:30Because you're not going to open up 50 models or 1 ,000 models on your computer. And Excel does not run headlessly. I bet you it will soon, though. At all? You can do some clever arrangement of VMs with expensive licenses. Some companies might do this to get around the bottlenecks. But I actually don't know for sure, but I would bet my life that Microsoft is working on this. Interesting. Nico, are you recruiting Michael yet? Michael. No, I don't think I could afford Michael. I would say Michael, the best form of recruiting was after the contest, Michael asked me if we can get his team on Shortcut.

2:24:08Amazing. There you go. Wait, so Michael, what do you do day to day when you're not competing? Winning world championships. Yeah, so about six months ago, I moved into private equity investing in freight rail across North America. Thank you. Thank you for your service. I appreciate it. Faith in humanity restored. I needed that today. I needed that today. Thank you, guys. To know that our best and brightest are still choosing private equity. Yes. And not giving in to, you know, the Nikos of the world. Yeah, it's really sad. Building our high future. Yeah, yeah, exactly. We're going to bring back rail.

2:24:46Yeah, make, you know, making the roll up, you know, the path. Well, congratulations to you both. Thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us. Great to see you, Nico, and great to meet you, Michael. Have a great rest of your day. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks for having me. Goodbye.

2:25:02Private equity got a good one. Dan Primack shared a little tinfoil hat theory. He is beginning to wonder if Sun Valley is really organized by Getty Images. and Allen & Co. is just a front. I wonder if they actually, do you think Getty Images actually sees an uptick in sales around Sun Valley? Is this just like tech insider baseball exclusively? You have to imagine like Met Gala sells more Getty Images than Sun Valley. It's more of just a funny insider thing. Yeah, I think it's a good bit. The funny thing is like even being in tech media, we don't see that Getty Images has a bunch of photos of Sun Valley and think, okay, got to go sign up for Getty.

2:25:43True, true, true. It's like if a cool one pops up, it's like great. And you kind of want the watermark on there because it's like a status symbol that it was taken by a paparazzi and not by just some random person. Speaking of our previous conversation on betting, RiskMaxing says a 9 to 5 isn't a career. It's a supply chain for casino ammo. And that is certainly one way to look at it. Although that's not how we think about our work here, gentlemen. No, we respect the dollar like Nick Cage. Uh, Ty Lopez calls money fuel units. I always thought that was a funny, funny turn of phrase. I call them fuel units.

2:26:20I call them fuel units. Well, this person calls them casino ammo, which is very silly. No two countries than AI data center have ever gone to war with each other. Is that true? That seems potentially true. What else is going on in the timeline? Uh, major innovation in fashion. Let's pull this video up. I haven't seen this. Silva says this is the greatest invention created since AI. Okay. It is a polo and a quarter zip. Oh, it's all one? That's a one. Wow. There we go. What is this Kazakhstan ad? There's a targeted ad on Instagram. It says, if you love tiramisu, you should visit Kazakhstan. No, just try Kazakhstan.

2:27:03Try Kazakhstan. Is that an aerial photo of an area in Kazakhstan? Yeah, it looks like some sort of desert. It's a beautiful image. But I don't know what it has to do with Tiramisu. Rock formation. But I've actually seen ads from the Kazakhstan Board of Tourism before. They have a pretty significant firepower when it comes to advertising. I want to play this reel of this gentleman who's practicing his robot skills so he can take AI's job. Because it's my new favorite genre. I'm seeing less AI videos and more people doing AI impressions going viral. It's a very weird outcome. everyone said that the this is this is the best this is incredible acting look at this guy so good uncanny uncannily accurate uncannily accurate um no that no there's like a whole subgenre of people that just do impressions of the ai slop there's that guy who does the chatting with the voice mode and it always gets wrong.

2:28:10And I see more of those than people actually generating AI voices. And I've also seen there's this group of - You mean the off payroll QA tester? Yeah, exactly. Off balance quality assurance. I see there's this group of guys who make Instagram videos that imitate AI videos. And it's fascinating because you notice once they do the impression of the ai video all the little quirks and tells of ai video like they'll be saying lines and they they pre-rehearse the lines and they have everyone in the shot move their mouth to the line even if only one of them is saying it because that's something ai videos do a lot apparently and then it has these odd like push-in camera moves that happen all the time it's very very funny uh we never talked about how i was uh referencing the turn it down meme with alexis oh yeah i'm picking it up you guys you're too subtle yeah they caught it i heard them i was like do any of the athletes turn it down he's like no actually and i was like how much can you make 10 15 ridiculous um pull up this last video we'll close out the show with it from Emily.

2:29:26She's been on a tear. Every video is going viral. Voice actor. I think she's a real, she does voice acting for radio ads, but of course is making fun of the tech industry, I think. Your business runs on business, but your business's business is stuck in the past. Until now. Introducing Business AI for Business. That's like something we would promote. Business AI for Business leverages the power of business AI for your business, transforming your business into AI business. With Business AI for Business, Business AI does your business in seconds, leaving your team to focus on the important business of your business, business.

2:30:05Now your business is free to run your business at scale, at speed, at AI. The future of business isn't coming, it's here. Business AI for Business. Business AI, business business, AI, AI, AI. Very talented. The funny thing is she's saying every voiceover script right now, which I would assume that this kind of audio is like AI is really good at. Yeah. But I think some of the AI companies are LARPing and they don't know how good the voice models have gotten, so they haven't actually just. So they hire a voice actor to read the most AI-laden script of all time? Yeah. So sometimes I listen to the radio on the way to work, and I hear ads like this, and they're always by these big legacy companies.

2:30:50Okay. So I assume that's why they're not using actual cutting-edge technology. Bullish for voiceover artists, I guess. Reading AI for business ads. Last video of the day. Yeah. Did you see this? There's a clip from SpaceX's new launch site. It looks like Dune. It actually looks like Dune. I'm pretty sure SpaceX accidentally built the Transformer. At least that's what it sounds like here. And so you can play. This is designed to hold all the rockets so they can launch them, I think, every hour. Let's get some audio. Look at this. How did they shot this with a drone? This is Dune in real life. Look at this.

2:31:36The engineering that goes into this, just thinking so far ahead. I think this is designed to launch a starship every hour. And it's like... They said that something like an Olympic swimming pool's worth of water that they use to... Cool everything? Yeah, the deluge. There's another video here. This new critical path video is just mind-blowing. Love the deluge part of the story. You can play this video. This is crazy. ...neighborhood of about 650 ,000 gallons per minute. That's approximately in the range of about like one entire Olympic swimming pool being drained in the course of a minute. Is that for when it takes off?

2:32:20So for this plane deflector on pad two, we're sitting somewhere in the neighborhood of about 650 ,000 gallons per minute.

2:32:29That's approximately in the range of about like one entire Olympic swimming pool being drained in the course of a minute. This is how they quantify it. This is the kind of thing you can imagine, you know, maybe a world in the future where humanity has left Earth. and another group comes and visits, and they're looking at this thing, being like, what were they cooking? What were they cooking? Imagine if you had the world's biggest machine gun, and it's just firing 11 pickup trucks per second out of the bottom of the rocket. It has to be the most American measurement of all, in all aerospace history.

2:33:05I love it. Always put the power of your rocket in pickup trucks per second, I suppose. Anyway, thank you for tuning in to TBPN. We will see you tomorrow at 11 a.m. Pacific, sharp. And leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Sign up for our newsletter at tvpn.com. We love you. We'll see you tomorrow. Goodbye.