Chip Bottleneck vs. Energy Bottleneck, Amazon’s $200B Capex, Big Tech Earnings | Doug O'Laughlin, Max Levchin, TJ Parker, Arsalan Tavakoli

26:18It's about 25 % of all military spending globally. It's equivalent to buying 50 Gerald R. Ford aircraft carriers. It's the equivalent of spending$1.8 billion a day,$750 million an hour, or$1.2 million a minute. This year alone is without a doubt the biggest project in the history of capitalism, and we are spending all of it in one year. Bubble Boy did do the inflation adjustment here. The Apollo program cost something like$25. back then billion um yeah uh to putting also putting it into perspective uh france announced uh an initiative earlier this week they uh they want to lead in uh ai research so through their 20 france 2030 program they have invested more than 30 million euros in this in this initiative macron says science has found its home and sean frank says france is investing 30 million in this new ai initiative that's how much google will spend in 90 minutes no joke every 90 minutes google will spend 30 million on capex this year one company one company they can hire ilia for like an hour an hour one hour consulting call yeah he's got to get on get an intro yeah intro Hit up Brad.

27:42Vibe.co, where DGC brands, B2B startups, and AI companies advertise on streaming TV, pick channels, target audiences, and measure sales just like on Meta. Take Him is breaking down the NVIDIA news. The stock is up 6.22%. NVIDIA shares barely moved in after I was trading last night. Yeah, this is what I said. I was like, Amazon just announced, hey, we're going to spend$200 billion. Yeah, what are they going to buy with those? I mean, they will buy Tranium and Inferentia, but they're going to buy a lot of NVIDIA. you know it, take him, said, you all know I was already insanely bullish on NVIDIA's NVL72 super cycle this year.

28:17These CapEx numbers from Google and Amazon blow away even my most optimistic expectations for NVIDIA's main and consumer market. And we also saw from Greg Brockman that GB200 is off to the races. The Blackwell chips are now in full force over at OpenAI, powering 5.3. There's a little bit of debate over whether that was involved in training or inference, but it doesn't really matter. Blackwell's here, and it's going to improve things. And that's probably good for chip designers, which NVIDIA is obviously one of. Let me tell you about Lambda. Lambda is the super intelligence cloud building AI supercomputers for training and inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands.

29:01Steven over at Lambda was the one who sent me that post. from France originally. Yeah. You were not kind. You were making fun of him. But it's a good post. Going all in on AI with$30 million. It's really like the, it has the, what's that called? Yeah, the$1 billion. $1 million because you're not aware of inflation because you've been frozen for 50 years or something like that. Let's go over to the Wall Street Journal. Yes. behind disney's search for a lasting successor to bob eiger yeah company's succession committee reviewed information on over a hundred candidates before the race was narrated to a hundred this seems crazy update you guess you gotta be thorough if you were reviewed you gotta you gotta put it here so uh the trio which is bob eiger josh tomorrow and dana walden they were meeting in disney's executive dining room trio sat in a private room with panoramic views of Disney's studio lot and surrounding San Francisco Valley where Iger discussed scenarios the board of directors was considering.

30:09Could Di Amaro, we got to, is it Di Amaro or Di Amaro? Di Amaro, Doug Di Amaro. Is he related to Doug Di Amaro? Di Amaro, chair of Disney's experience business, including theme parks and consumer products, Walden, co-chairman of the entertainment business, lead the company together. What about with one in charge and the other as deputy? Di Amaro and Walden, who by that point were the finalists to succeed Iger, said they were open to all the scenarios. Disney's board of directors was scheduled to meet in the same building and hold its final vote on who the next CEO would be the following Thursday.

30:44People close to the company predicted Di Amaro would be given the top job with Walden elevated role to ensure she stayed. The only surprise, it turned out, was the timing. Keenly aware of the intense public anticipation, Disney's 10 directors, including Iger, voted unanimously Monday to make DeMauro CEO and Walden president and chief creative officer. We were ready to go, and I didn't like sitting there with the news, board chairman James Gorman, who led the succession process, said in an interview. Yeah, that was really fast. It was extremely fast. Rumors hit the various outlets, and then it was confirmed immediately.

31:23It's live. That was smart. At an employee town hall, Di Amaro described the moment as surreal and said he was initially embarrassed by his reaction. I got a little choked up when they let me know because it's a big responsibility. It is a big responsibility. His ascension will, save for any unexpected snafus, mark the end of a decade-plus search for a lasting successor to Bob Iger that has been marked by delays, missteps, and reversals. Employees said they are happy to have the biggest question about the company's future finally resolved and anxious about what a former parks leader running the company with a veteran television executive as his top deputy will mean for Disney's future.

32:02Let's give it up for veteran television.

32:08So Gorman had previously run a leadership succession project at Morgan Stanley. He took over Disney's process in 2024 after joining the board. He said the succession committee reviewed information on more than a hundred candidates and homed in on several outsiders along with four Disney executives. DeMauro, Walden, entertainment co-chairman Alan Bergman, and ESPN chief Jimmy Pitaro. Gorman said the board interviewed the candidates formally and in intimate lunches. They conducted 360 interviews with Disney executives, talking to subordinates and colleagues as well as bosses. By last summer, the race had narrowed to two candidates.

32:48DeMauro and Walden traveled to Orlando in August to present their visions for Disney's future at a board meeting. The Wall Street Journal previously reported this. In ensuing months, they met with board members in a less formal setting. Both executives talked to Iger frequently about what it took to run a company like Disney. Employees noticed and gossip was rampant. Staffers speculated about whether DeMauro's background in parks would hurt him given that Bob Chapek had also run the company's theme park. before his short-lived tenure as CEO. Yeah, that'd be wild. Hey, we had a misstep with a Parks guy.

33:21No more Parks guys. Yeah. Disney's leaders wanted the succession process to be as clean as possible without runners up leaving the company given the Chapek fiasco. We wanted to get this right, said Gorman. As a result, few were surprised that Walden was named president, a position no one has held at Disney in 20 years. With a recommended retention bonus worth$5.3 million, Walden's creative officer position is a new one for Disney. Some in the company's movies division are nervous about what Walden's rise will mean for their business, which she hasn't worked in before and now she oversees it. But there she is with the Founders Award at the International Emmys in New York, getting an award.

34:06A few company leaders... This is Founders Podcast Award? I don't know what the Founders Award at the International Emmys is for. Like, it's not for a founder. Never heard of it. It's a prestigious honor bestowed by the International Academy of Television Arts and Sciences to individuals or organizations making a significant impact on global television. Okay. Founders. Anyways, let's move on to... Dirty Soda? Dirty Soda. We got to talk about the Utah mom. Had you heard of Dirty Soda before? We got the world hooked on Dirty Soda. I'd never heard of Dirty Soda before. Have you heard of this? Yeah, yeah.

34:41This is big in Utah. This is big in Utah? Yeah, yeah. Have you been to Utah? No. How do you know that it's big in Utah, then? Exposed. My friends send it to me on Instagram. They're like, look at this. Okay. All right, what is dirty stuff? You have friends who live in Utah? It's like soda, and they put cream in it and stuff, right? Okay. Well, we'll dig in. I think we'll let the Wall Street Journal get the facts straight. But first, I'll tell you about Phantom Cash. Fund your wallet without exchanges or middlemen, and spend with the Phantom card. A mom with five children ages 6 to 16 in St. George, Utah.

35:16Nicole Tanner didn't realize she was on to something with dirty soda. That's what the creator of the chain Swig calls spiking Coke, Mountain Dew, or Dr. Pepper with fruit purees and flavored cream served in plastic cups stuffed with pebble, ice, microplastic. Nightmare? Nightmare. Really? I didn't know pebble ice was at risk. No, no, no. I'm talking about it. I'm just saying plastic cups. Oh, the plastic cups. Her business took off a few years ago when pop star Olivia Rodrigo was in Utah filming the TV series High School Musical and posted an Instagram photo holding a cup from Swig. Now hashtag dirty soda is the hashtag.

35:50Big chains want in. McDonald's recently tested Sprite with lemon vanilla syrup, dragon fruit, Taco Bell swirls. It's teal colored Baja Dream freezes with vanilla cream and calls it a Mountain Dew Baja Blast Dirty Freeze. We forgot to ask Sam Altman if he's going to issue a Baja Blast. because he did the code red it's time for a baja time to baja blast he's back to the top maybe that's what the super bowl ad codex oh that would be blast codex collab campaign for the builders yes tgi fridays last year started offering a line of dirty sodas and can be amped up with shots of jack daniels okay hennessy that sounds when i hear dirty soda i feel like it's spiked with alcohol, but apparently just a dirty Sprite.

36:37That's like, yeah. Oh yeah. That's right. There's a future. And drive-in chain Sonic has encouraged customers to make it dirty by ordering creamer and mix-ins with their sodas. While the heart of dirty sodas may still be Utah and the Mountain West States, Swig has expanded to around 140 locations across 16 states. This is insane. To me, to me, this feels like a really tough business to be in long-term because if, if the product becomes popular everyone has it everyone has it immediately you have no real ip yeah right because you're just using sodas off the shelf sure um so yeah i'd be interested to see what happens to these 140 locations even though the product is a hit yeah tanner's main investor family investment office larry h miller co brought in a professional chief executive who has taken other companies public and he is talking of an eventual initial public offering for the chain which had around 100 million in sales last year tanner i mean these must be incredibly simple to run.

37:30It's literally a box. You have soda and creamer. So I could see even... They don't sell food or anything here? This is like such a simple... We're doing what Starbucks did for coffee but for soda, said Swig CEO Alex Dunn. So Alex Dunn says pull up here 6am, on the way to the gym, grab a big soda. I feel like you'd need more caffeine if you really wanted to displace Starbucks. People really just stop at a dedicated place just to get a tasty soda. That's a crazy thing. Gabe is sharing a quote from future dirty soda and a styrofoam spend a day to get my mind blown oh lh miller was the owner of the utah jazz interesting did you have more context here well i was just gonna say on the caffeine thing isn't the whole point that it doesn't have it's like not yeah right because they're mormon oh it oh okay so it's a utah thing i think so yeah okay okay at least original or there's like a little caffeine but you can probably do caffeine free coca-cola or something i started uh i did something recently that that that felt uh it felt really wrong but the result was good i mixed a yurva with a mexican coke okay it was it was fantastic mataina yeah mexican coke yeah it's fun gemini 3 pro google's most intelligent model yet state of the art reasoning next little vibe coding deep multimodal understanding uh tanner grew up on an idaho dairy farm the fifth of eight children she got her associate degree in office education That is a sweet degree.

38:56Wow. Who runs office education here? Office education. We need some education. Maybe we do. Here's how you use Cloud Code. And started working in marketing for a library system software company. Let's give it up for a library system software company. I bet you this is a more durable business than some of the other sass out there. She got married and by 23 started a family. Tanner started working for Mary Kay, selling makeup and skin care products, and eventually building a team of 18 consultants. Let's give it up for MLMs. Yeah. I think they would just use that, right? Yeah, anytime you... They don't like the pyramid scheme term, but I don't know.

39:35It may be MLMs. Multi-level marketing, I think, is just a strategy. It's legal, yeah. In 2007, the Tanners moved with their five children to St. George from Colorado. She was a 38-year-old mother of five, craving caffeine and tired of watered-down fountain soda when she decided to turn her cravings into a business in 2010. And oh, wait, so coffee wasn't a choice. Tanner is Mormon and adherence typically traditionally abstained from coffee. But you could have caffeine in in soda. I didn't realize that. That seems like a loophole. This is this is I love this. Tanner and her husband use savings to avoid taking out a business loan to buy a 700 square foot commercial building in St.

40:15George with a big parking lot. It's like people are like, oh, I moved to San Francisco and I had a mattress on the floor. I have so much conviction. Okay, buy a building for your untested soda company with all your savings. That's real conviction. Lover up. Her idea was to serve super cold soda with a twist like lime, fruit, or purees. Tanner initially leased a fountain machine from Coca-Cola. When she asked PepsiCo for the same, Tanner said the company took a pass. Soda rivals typically push restaurant chains to stock their products exclusively. So Tanner bought two liter bottles of Pepsi and Mountain Dew from grocery stores.

40:50I love seeing your face when you ask for a Diet Coke on a plane. They say, is Pepsi okay? And you just say, absolutely not. After about a month, Pepsi relented, she said. She started with limes, lemons, and six flavor shots. She recruited her eldest daughter and niece to work in the store. Her 15-year-old son held up signs outside, advertising that job not going away. sign spinning. I've been getting so many sign spinning reels with the you broke my heart. That's just one guy. But I see all of his reels and it's just like him being like I don't have a job and then he's just crazy. He can actually spin that into an interesting digital ad business because he can just do the sign spin and then it's an ad for something online because the video is on the sign.

41:34I honestly never see what's on the sign because it's spinning so fast. No I know but use that as a lead in and then promote yeah yeah yeah good tanner in the beginning price for drinks at a dollar for any size that's crazy i didn't know you could get anything for a dollar in this country anymore helping draw students from nearby utah tech university in 2013 a local news broadcast found customers waiting to get a mango puree mountain dew or big al soda that's interesting i saw that i don't know if this is a big al soda or big ai soda so they said they said uh a few years ago olivia rodrigo promoted it and it went viral.

42:12I thought this business was only a few years old, I guess. No, it's an overnight success. It's an overnight success. That's pretty remarkable. After customers started referring to Swig's Dr. Pepper and Cream combination as dirty soda, Tanner latched onto the phrase encouraging customers. They got to pay future royalty here. I won't stand by this. They should get future as an influencer. That'd be good. Yeah, he's like, when I said dirty soda, I meant Swig. Promethazine. By 2017, Swig had grown to more than a dozen stores. The staff was spread thin, and Tana realized she lacked the expertise to grow further.

42:47She and her husband separated in 2020 RIP and is no longer involved in Swig. I hate when I'm just reading this incredible story of entrepreneurship, and then they kind of interrupt the flow there. In 2025, she married Greg Robinson, and they continue to live in Utah. It was held together with some duct tape and hairpins, said Andrew Smith, a Utah-based investor whose Savory Fund invests in CPG. Oh, they took a majority stake. Interesting. They bought the whole thing. Very cool. In recent years, Swig has gotten a boost from the cast of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, a reality TV show chronicling a group of Utah-based TikTok influencers.

43:23Interesting. We're at Swig, so I can tell you exactly what my Swig order is. It's sparkling water, sugar-free pineapple, sugar-free peach, sugar-free vanilla, raspberry puree with a fresh lime. That's crazy. So over the top. Anyways, what a cool story. Yeah. Tanner says we're in extreme high growth mode right now. The company estimates it serves over 2 ,000 drinks in a single conference. The White House has posted biggest, period, bowl, period, run, period, ever, period, starting, period, now, period. Did they post this? Or should you scroll down? Yeah. No. So they're sharing a fake screenshot from True Social where Donald Trump says, let the gains begin.

44:11I mean, he really did call the bottom. At least a local bottom. Of veracity and truth? No, I'm just saying, like, if you bought NVIDIA when this fake post was... Yes, shared by the real account. is, but White House Post is not even the real account, right? That's just a fake 14 ,000 follower account. Everything about this is fake. Everything about, and then they follow up. I highly recommend you follow White House Grandpa. It's like, what are we doing here? Very strange. Absolutely. Well, do your own research and get on public.com. Investing for those who take it seriously, not from fake news on a podcast.

44:57Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more. with great customer service that isn't fake news. Goldman Sachs is tapping Anthropics AI model to automate accounting and compliance roles. Embedded Anthropic engineers have spent six months at Goldman building autonomous systems for time-intensive, high-volume back-office work. This was one of my first jobs. Bowl market and forward-deployed engineers for Anthropic. Yeah. It will be funny if true diffusion requires two decades of just millions of consultants working with businesses of all size to implement AI systems? Yeah, probably. I mean, the task horizon, every time I see it, six hours, that's amazing.

45:41And you were making the comment of like, you know, how many times do you really sit there and spend six hours working autonomously? But there's a different frame, which is like a consultant can come in with a goal and work pretty much autonomously for like months. And so there is a world where, you know, to not have a forward deployed engineer in the loop, you need the task horizon to be like years, basically. Yeah, building a company takes your whole life. Exactly, yeah. So you keep the doubling going, which I think puts us back to 2035. Overnight success was like a word. I think it puts us at like 2035.

46:15It's about a decade until you get to like, the task horizon is a lifetime. It's like the average life expectancy of a human. Pull up this article from the Wall Street Journal. Okay, what are we looking at? Which one? uh anthropic aura farm the journal this week they this is one of the most insane headlines it's the week anthropic tanked the market and pulled ahead of its rivals once a distant second or third in the ai race the company is moving to the front with a focus on caution coding and business clients well they didn't fully aura farm because the journal sort of takes a shot here says anthropic once appeared as an also ran in the chaotic race for ai supremacy this week the sophistication of the startup's products upended the stock market.

46:59A simple set of industry-specific add-ons to its clawed product, including one that performed legal services, triggered a days-long global stock sell-off of software to legal services, financial data, and real estate. Then, Anthropik unveiled Super Bowl ads that taunt rival OpenAI. On Thursday, Anthropik unleashed its most advanced model yet, capable of synthesizing data and analysis, running teams of coding assistants and functions akin to product management. Shares of software companies, including Salesforce, Intuit, and others fell again Thursday, although less precipitously than earlier in the week.

47:38The viral moment for Anthropics models is, quote, the most important thing happening in AI since chat GPT's launch said, Dean Ball, a senior fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation, who I know, Ball, you know him, everyone knows Ball on this show, who writes an artificial intelligence newsletter, quote, it's infinitely interesting. Industry prognosticators and AI evangelists have spent months foretelling the toll Anthropic and others and other sophisticated AI tools would take on software as a service companies that were darlings of the previous internet era tools made by companies such as Workday, Monday.com, and Adobe have become the digital backbone for American corporations.

48:20Anthropics tools, however, which include agents that can act autonomously to carry out increasingly complex user requests for hours, have offered a preview of the threat sophisticated AI models pose to entire companies. It's a good article. I mean, obviously, we'll see how fast the diffusion happens. Some of of these systems have things that you cannot simply vibe code. We'll talk to Max Levchin about, is it possible to vibe code a financial software product? A global payments network. A global payments network. Can you vibe code a bank charter or money transfer license? And I think more and more companies will emerge and there might be a divergence between companies that have moats that are resistant to software-based disruption, but then maybe they should trade it at a different multiple.

49:12So there's sort of a reevaluation of the market broadly. Yeah, you also can, with the payment stuff, again, I'm super excited for us to talk with Max, especially on this week when PayPal is obviously in the news. But you can imagine a world where it does become possible to technically vibe code a global payments network. But various regulators just say like, hey, we're going to start having requirements. You need to be at least have 100 people on your team. things like that. That's interesting. Basically, if you're getting inundated with a bunch of requests of somebody that's like, hey, I started this company a week ago, and now I want to be able to process payments state by state, globally, et cetera, people are just going to be like, hey, this is probably not responsible.

49:56Let me tell you about Gusto, the unified platform for payroll benefits and HR built to evolve with modern, small, and medium-sized businesses. is I want to vibe code a payments platform where when it's payday, a humanoid robot comes around and just does a money spread in your face and just says, here's your cash. That's the future. You don't need to, none of this money transmitting license, none of these recordings. Money spread. Yeah, oh, Tyler's got the money spread going. Money spread. You're actually quite amateurish at your money spreads. From what I've seen on Instagram, there are levels and you are on level one.

50:30You need to learn all the different ones. The money counter spread. That's not bad. That's not bad. For anyone watching. But I want to see it go all the way down your arm. That is prop money. In an S. Okay. Do not break. Exposed. Exposed. First time money spread. Future would be mocking you. Rookie. Money spread rookie. Claims to love. Claims to know all about dirty soda. Never been to Utah. Never been to Utah. Claims to be able to money spread. Can't do a money spread. Can't do a money spread. Broke boy. Wait, Jordan, do you have like 20 bucks on you? I actually do. Oh, he got you. That's what I thought.

51:10Yeah, that's what I thought. That's what I thought. He can't even hold his mic now. He can't hold the mic button. Turbo Puffer, serverless vector and full-text search, built from first principles and object storage, fast 10x cheaper and extremely scalable. Take him at a funny take. He said, y 'all are clowns, clowns. The Anthropic Legal plugin uses software. It doesn't replace it. In fact, the co-work legal plugin uses Microsoft 365, Jira, Slack, and Box software to accomplish its tasks. No one in Anthropic has replicated any of these applications with ones coded by the company's cloud code agent.

51:46What is this X that you can put up there? New feature. Just X it out? New feature. Yeah. Yes, yes. There are plenty of situations where the token cost of regenerating the software is much lower than just using the software. and so people will use the software. Jim Cramer said, Anthropic's power is so daunting that all they have to do is say they are going into cybersecurity and that's the end of the group. I don't want to be against them, but they are not the all-powerful firm that they think they are. Well, we'll talk to Doug O 'Loughlin about exactly how powerful Anthropic is and whether he has vibe-coded everything in his life or if he is still using an operating system at this point.

52:24Who knows? Let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform, that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in-store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents. Joe Weisenthal shared yesterday, silver down 19%. Anthropic must have launched a silver extension. Yes. It's just chaos in the markets. It's just absolute chaos everywhere. One of the most chaotic weeks of my adult life. Yeah. But it's been lots of green shoots, lots of interesting projects, lots of interesting applications and progress all over the place. Derek Thompson said, for me, the odds that AI is a bubble declined significantly in the last three weeks, and the odds that we are actually quite underbuilt for the necessary levels of inference usage went up significantly in that period.

53:13Derek Thompson is AGI-pilled. I think AI is going to become the home screen of a ludicrously high percentage of white-collar workers in the next two years, and parallel agents will be deployed in the battlefield of knowledge work at downright Soviet levels. And Kevin Roos over at the New York Times, host of the Hard Fork podcast, says, this is why everyone was freaking out about cloud code over winter break. Once you see an agent autonomously doing stuff for you, it's so instantly clear that all computer-based work will be done this way. This is why my serious AI policy proposal is to sit every member of Congress down in a room with laptops for 30 minutes and have them all build websites.

53:53Yeah. Get them vibe code. So we were joking about this yesterday with Sholto. Like we maybe need more long weekends for adoption, but I wouldn't be surprised for a big company to like actually do something like this, which is like, hey, we're going to have like a, we're going to have the next Thursday, Friday off. Hackathon. Yeah, basically. Congressional hackathon. I mean, Congress is a whole other thing. You got to go to Congress, sit all the Congress people down and get them vibe coding. What would they build? I feel like they don't use a lot of software, so there's not that much to build. They're so abstracted away from it.

54:30It's all lunches and phone calls and dinners and meetings. There's not that much that actually... This is the thing with OpenClaw. There's some people asking, what are you actually using it for? And people are realizing a lot of my day is not... You know the thing that I wish I could automate? What? My mail at home. Okay. You can do that. Have you seen Earth Class Mail? There are a few of these virtual Okay, it sends it So basically you forget your home address You don't share it anywhere on the internet You never put it anywhere You only use this other address Mine was like 830 Market Street In San Francisco All of the mail would go there If it's addressed to me, it gets opened by a robot Scanned, and then you have a Web dashboard, but also it just goes to your email And then you can actually say So they've been AGI-pilled for decades Decades No, it was really important when you set up a business, you use a fake address or one of these virtual mailboxes.

55:28And then you could actually click a button, send this to me physically, if it's like a magazine or a gift or something. You can say, like, keep this, or you can say, like, shred it. And then you have a virtual, you know, representation of it forever. And you could run an agent over it. So maybe that's the next thing you pick up is a virtual mailbox. That would be good. How does that work, though? There are certain situations where you need your ID to match like your utility bill. Yeah. So you just still, I guess you just use, still use your home address for utilities, but use everything else. Or passport.

56:02Like there's usually other ways to, to approve residency besides the bills. But also I don't know if you can actually get the utility bill to not go where the utilities are. Yeah, that's what I was saying. But hopefully the utilities don't leak it. I'm talking about like the broad, like, you know, your, your, your address gets on the internet. and then it's just like spam and like credit card offers and stuff like that. I'm just saying I never want to open up a physical piece of mail again. I want it to come someplace, have an AI agent, like, you know, you get a, you go on a toll road, just pays it automatically, right?

56:34Stuff like that. Optimus opens it for you, takes a picture. Does a money spread. Does a money spread, walks to the post office, mails the next letter, mails the check, this is the future. powered by MongoDB. Choose a database built for flexibility and scale. Built with best-in-class embedding models and re-rankers, MongoDB has what you need to build what's next. It does. Michelangelo drawing just sold for$27.2 million. Let's hit the gong for that. Over 13 times it's asking price. Are we bringing down the gong? The Renaissance master earned a record sum with the sketch of a foot linked to Sistine Chapel.

57:10Let's hit the gong for the Michelangelo painting. Give it a clean hit.

57:25Let's give it up for the team for really dialing in the special effects. Congrats to Michelangelo. Overnight success, Michelangelo. What do you think, Tyler? Overvalued, undervalued? 27.2 million. I think I'm going to have to go with Tyler Cowen. I'm pretty sure on Marginal Revolution. I saw this earlier this week. He said way overvalued. Way overvalued. Whoa. What was the... What was the thesis? I mean it's not I'll give you the bear thesis look at the picture it's a foot it's not even like a painting it's just like a sketch I think we know what's going on there's people that are into this stuff I'm not going to judge but it's not me not for me I newly rediscovered Michelangelo drawing of a foot sold for 27.2 million at Christie's on Thursday a record for any work created by the Renaissance master in a sale likely to kick the art market into high gear Previously unknown red chalk sketch is one of only a handful of Michelangelo's Surviving studies still in still left in private hands.

58:29My AI diffusion model could do this That's the new phrase. My kid couldn't do this, but my AI diffusion model certainly could. This is not that impressive Not a 27 maybe at five. Give me a break The five inch drawing depicts the right foot of the Libyan Sybil a blonde prophetess from wearing a creamsicle gown painted onto the chapel ceiling of the eastern end. Let's get the feet off of the screen. Get that feet out of here. Moving on, back to business. Citrini says, in response to Opus 4-6, I have not shied away from buying scary dips. Neither has Ben on our team. Producer Ben always buys the dip.

59:10Buying tech in 2022 was scary. Yes. It's really good that buy the dip is like so like it's the backbone it's really the backbone because freak out and sell everything would really be bad for our capital yes yes yes okay so buying the buying tech in 2022 was scary as were banks after svb i bought plenty of stocks when covid seemed like potentially the end of the world but this doesn't really seem like an overreaction in software if anything it's delayed it's a rational response that isn't even trying to front run the capability improvement the capability is here. I respect anyone who is actually smart enough to know who survives and thrives.

59:47I just don't think I can foresee that far ahead right now. And Gary Basin has a devil's advocate. I think the bottleneck will still be knowing the details of what to build, which depend on what your customers need, not even necessarily what they say they want. I use these tools daily to close to their full power, and they're amazing, but the flashy demos are all examples of extremely precisely specified tasks in example rich domains build a compiler build a web browser etc these have very specific rules on what success entails and i've seen like the gas town so one of the one of the big demo projects was like re-platforming some open source software to rust and it's like that's pretty verifiable from start to finish if you're looking at like build a new social network it's like okay how do you get distribution distribution is still really really important.

1:00:37You can vibe code stuff, but driving traffic is harder than ever. What do you think, Tyler? I just need to clear something. Before I said, Tyler Cowen was talking about... Michelangelo? Yeah, Michelangelo. That was incorrect. He was actually talking about a Rembrandt. It was also a sketch. It was$20 million. Thank you for the fact check. Really quickly, Restream. One live stream, 30 plus destinations. If you want to multi-stream, go to Restream.com. Wall Street Logic right now, says Chris Camillo. Punish big tech for wasting CapEx on AI. Punish SaaS because AI will replace them. And punish GPU manufacturers for selling the chips that power the waste.

1:01:15Sell everything. Sell your dollars. Remember to lock up your capital in late-stage private companies at the tops. Says Bay's Day 16Z that I think has been deleted. I can't see it, but I can see the screen. Really good post. Anyway, the fear greed index is at 5 out of 100. Extreme fear. Extreme fear. Yeah, I mean, good timing. Freak out and sell everything. This is Lindy. He posted this last night. Yeah. 4 ,000. Got a rally. I think this might have turned the tide. This might have turned it. You did it. Anyway. Cisco, critical infrastructure for the AI era. Unlock seamless and real-time experiences and new value with Cisco.

1:01:54Toma Bravo, managing partner Holden Spat says, I just finished a week of board meetings with several of our portfolio companies and their strong results in growth and profitability seem to be, in my view, another piece of evidence against the overwrought headlines that AI is eating software. Anaplan, Bottom Line, Coupa, Dayforce, and Jeppesen for Flight are navigating the AI transition quite well with Q4 bookings growth of 22 % on average and high margins. Let's go. These are large companies operating at billion-dollar revenue scale, not small startups, and the growth numbers look to be accelerating, not decelerating.

1:02:29That kind of growth doesn't square with the notion that enterprise customers are cutting software spend so they have more money for new AI applications. We don't view our portfolios, companies, as being caught in an either-or, zero-sum competition like that. They're building and integrating AI functionality into their products, and customers are voting with their dollars. Systems of... Just transitioning. The voice. Systems of record with powerful AI and agent capabilities built to enterprise requirements and workflows have shown themselves to be quite capable of profitable growth. And I believe the value of profitable growth will endure in the face of technological change.

1:03:08Let's go. Not biased at all, but I think this is what we want to see, right? Six months ago, Google was considered disrupted. Now it's accelerating today. SaaS is considered disruptive. Now SaaS is accelerating. Let's see. Certainly not time to take your foot off the gas if you're building a SaaS company. You've got to figure out how to survive, how to thrive in the age of AI. Can't be asleep at the wheel. You've got to be building. You've got to be innovating. You've got to know your value. You've got to know what really makes your company valuable. Tom Dale says, I don't know why this week became the tipping point, but nearly every software engineer I've talked to is experiencing some degree of mental health crisis.

1:03:49I saw another post in the same vein from somebody saying, well, at least we're getting it over with before everyone else, right? software engineers might be prepared for a new reality just because they're probably closer to the beginning of the wave justine moore has the other side of it she says i love how everyone is saying sass is dead like you're going to get the fortune 500 to ditch salesforce for a crm 5 coded by a 13 year old um and matt levine says what's kind of funny is that people on this website have internalized quote you hire McKinsey for air cover and a throat to choke if things go down go wrong but they haven't internalized you hire Salesforce Workday and Atlassian for very similar albeit not identical reasons and there's some disagreement Montag says that's not even remotely true and Matt Levine says wrong this is the other Matt Levine by the way this is not the Bloomberg writer this is a software guy with some finance thrown in he's been at a 16 Z and JP Morgan.

1:04:50Let me tell you about console.com. Console builds AI agents that automate 70 % of IT, HR, and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. That is right. Good Alexander says, just to be clear, people are shorting the economy of bits just as software EBIT margins are about to run to 70 % and rotating into the economy of atoms into mass unemployment. Rotating into the economy of atoms into mass unemployment? I'm saying like if you're buying Disney right now saying like, okay, they have the parks business. It's not as immune to AI disruption. But then if a bunch of people are unemployed.

1:05:26They're not going to go to Disney. Yeah. In theory. Theoretically. Theoretically. They might go more. Who knows? The fact that crypto and silver are getting clobbered at the same time as SaaS stocks makes me think that the AI disruption story is a little bit too pat of an explanation for what's going on. But there might be something else going on in the global economy. Yeah, this is why giving Anthropic full credit for the correction in the journal is kind of insane. It really amps up the aura and the power. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I mean, it's great for Anthropic. And people are running the numbers on like, okay, so, you know, yeah, the valuation of Anthropic's probably doubled an extra$300 billion, but we're seeing like a trillion dollar sell-off.

1:06:03It's like, is that really the exchange rate that we're talking about here? We will see. Jensen is pushing back on the AI will kill all software narrative. Let's play the video. just like he pushed back last year on the DeepSeek panic. Let's play this video of Jensen. But what software is, software is a tool. There's this notion that the tool in the software industry is in decline and will be replaced by AI. You could tell because there's a whole bunch of software companies whose stock prices are under a lot of pressure because somehow AI is going to replace them. It is the most illogical thing in the world, and time will prove itself.

1:06:44Let's give ourselves the ultimate thought experiment. Suppose we are the ultimate AI, artificial general robotics, the ultimate AI, the physical version of us. You could, of course, solve any problem because you're humanoid. You could do things. if you were a human or robot, would you use a screwdriver or invent a new screwdriver? I would just use one. Would you use a hammer or invent a new hammer? Would you use a chainsaw or invent a new chainsaw? Just don't... First of all... White pill. Ideally, they don't use it at all. A lot of disagreement in the timeline. But do you understand what I'm saying?

1:07:29If you were a human or robot, artificial general robotics, would you use tools or reinvent tools? The answer, obviously, is to use tools. And so now do the digital version of that. If you were an artificial general intelligence, would you use the tools like ServiceNow and SAP and Cadence and Synopsys, or would you reinvent a calculator? Of course you would just use a calculator. Okay, Tyler. Okay, I completely disagree. So if you're a robot, you'll use the calculator, right? You'll just build the calculator if it costs you a lot of money to use the calculator. Yes, yes, yes. So I think digital...

1:08:17Damn it. Agents will use Salesforce, right? But if Salesforce becomes very expensive, or if it's already fairly expensive, at some point it becomes cheaper to just build it themselves, and then you run it. Yes, yes. Yeah, especially when they're like, I can work the equivalent of 2 ,000 lifetimes today. Yeah. Yeah, like, obviously, there's use for tools, right? Yeah. OpenAI doesn't, or ChetDBT, like, will write out Python script to run some, like, big math problem, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's not going to, like, use tokens to try to, like, do what I'm saying. Yes, yes, yes. At some point, if a single prompt can say, like, build me a clone of this software and replatform me and onboard all my customers and employees to the new vibe-coded version of the software and maintain it for free, yeah, you have a problem.

1:09:04But as long as the cost to re-implement the software and re-platform and transition over... John Palmer in the XChat and Deepak in the YouTube chat say, would you watch TBPN or reinvent it? Would you invent a new podcast or listen to a podcast? Yeah. I was talking about trains, the indomitable will of trains, or the unstoppable force of trains. I'm just being extremely bullish on trains. I don't know. It was just like a very random train anecdote. Yeah. I just like that there's a hype train for trains in the chat. Schmoesby says, you met me at a rather illiquid period of my life. It's rough out there.

1:09:50Yeah, I mean, going back to Jensen, it's in Jensen's interest for the markets not to collapse, even if he doesn't necessarily believe this, even if Tyler's take is right. Yeah, it's all a matter of timelines, I think. The models are expensive to actually go and reimplement something very, very large and replatform when the current thing is working. did you see this screenshot of some mapping software suggesting you could go straight or you could go in a loop this is a car guy software it is? yeah who's car guy software? like this map is probably by somebody who just appreciates a nice drive I think this is actually Google Maps but basically it's like you could go in a straight line or you could take a right and go in a massive loop and it's 8 minutes slower and it's like would you like to go the slower route?

1:10:44But, yeah, if you want to do a hot lap, go for it. I guess that's a good take. We got to actually pull out the post from Amtrak. Amtrak hired a poster. What did you do? Oh, this is where the train... Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, yeah. Sorry. This was one of the posts of the week. Amtrak says the unbridled greatness of trains will endure for a million years. Yes. Yes, yes, yes. This is what he was quoting. I thought it was so funny. The unbridled greatness of trains will endure for a million years. How many likes does that have? That's a banger. 4 ,000. 54 ,000. That's great. Let's go over to the Guinness tally.

1:11:30Tyler has it. He counted it up. He sat down. He studied the Dorkesh Patel cheeky pint crossover episode with Elon Musk. and he counted three pints for Elon, four pints for John, and three quarters of a pint for Dwarkesh, but there's a suspicious refill at 144. Yeah, so, I mean, it's a bit hard to really tell because if you, so if you're tracking Dwarkesh's, you know, volume, right, throughout the episode, it kind of goes down and he's at maybe like, you know, 80 % full. Okay. And then it goes back up. That seems like a refill. But it's like a direct, so it's after a, there's like an ad read and then it goes back up.

1:12:08So the question is, whatever happened during the ad read, did he just slam it? And then he filled back up all the way? Or is it just kind of a partial fill? I think you've got to give him 1.75. Okay, can we pull up the screenshot? Yes. Because the other debate was just around the actual size of the pines. Yes. They look like full pine glasses. So, yeah, if you go to another photo of Elon holding the pint. Yes. Three down. You got to pull that up, Tyler. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no. It's here. This is really important. So, yeah, you see this and it's like, okay. Looks pretty small in his hands.

1:12:52A little small. And then let's click over to Timothee Chalamet. Timothee Chalamet, I mean, he's a smaller person, but it looks the same size to me. I think these are fair pint glasses. I think these are accurate. I'm not seeing anything that's... So Timothy Chalamet is 5 '10", Elon is 6 '2". So a slight height difference, but I mean, I feel like Elon is really mauling that. Yeah, I think they're just potentially wider. And this is the kind of hard-hitting analysis that you can really only get on this show. No other technology media is really breaking down the pint analysis. I'm going normal-sized pints on this, but it is an interesting optical illusion.

1:13:38Yeah, this one looks incredibly consistent. It's a little bit of an optical illusion. It's close. It's close. I mean, either way. I know, but we don't know. Even if it's a half pint, John drank four, so that's two full pints. Even if it's a half pint, you know? I think these are full pint glasses. I'm going full pint. Okay. You know who else is going full pint, John? Who? The founder of crypto.com. Oh, yeah? Who just bought AI.com for$70 million. Let's go. Big, big, big.

1:14:16He is running an ad for AI.com. We don't know what AI.com is yet, but I'm assuming you're going to be able to get some artificial intelligence there, much like you can get crypto. It's a response. Haven't been people saying if you're in crypto, pivot to AI. Took it literally. I'll read through this. Chris, founder, says, plans to launch a new site with a Super Bowl ad this weekend. The founder of trading site Crypto.com just bought AI for$70 million. He actually bought it last year in April. Highest price ever disclosed for a domain sale to launch a new entrant into the AI race. The site will offer a personal AI agent that consumers can use to send messages, use apps, and trade stocks.

1:15:00it's very very american uh send message send memes order doordash and trade stocks with your new ai agent last year an opportunity came up for me to acquire this domain and i thought if you take a long-term view 10 to 20 years that ai is going to be one of the greatest technological waves of our lifetime and so it would be a good investment uh mara's elect did not comment on the purchase price which was confirmed by the deal's broker larry fisher of get your domain.com huge win for Larry on this deal. With assets like AI.com, there are no substitutes, said Fisher. When one becomes available, the opportunity may never present itself again.

1:15:41Of course, AI.com pitched itself, was pitching itself aggressively to all of the different labs. Everyone was like, you know, we, Anthropic's like, well, we may not have at Anthropic on X, but we do have Anthropic.com. We do have Claude.com. Who owns AI.ai? That's a good domain. Because Claude owns, or Anthropic owns Claude.com, but they also own Claude.ai, and they reroute Claude.com to Claude.ai, which is normally the opposite of the flow that you'd go. You'd start with the.ai or the other TLD, and then you would, as soon as you get the.com, you would reroute everything to.com. Anthropic's so AI-pilled that they're using the.ai as their main domain.

1:16:24Or maybe they're Anguilla-pilled? Oh, yes. Maybe they just like supporting Anguilla. Tyler, is using AI.com to launch a personal AI agent, is it your Gen Z, is this Chugi? Wait, what is Chugi again? I don't know. Chugi is like Gen Z slang. I think it's like millennial slang. Really? I don't know. It feels a little Chubai to me. I'll say that. I know enough about that. It feels like Chubai, it's chopped, it's Dubai. Dubai would want the name of the thing, but it's chopped. Chugi is a slang term often used by Gen Z to describe someone or something that is uncool, outdated, or trying too hard to be trendy.

1:17:08Yeah. Typically referring to millennial trends from the 2010s. So it's a dig at millennials from the perspective of Zoomers. Yeah. It describes a post-basic aesthetic that is slightly cringeworthy, such as live, laugh, love signs, skinny jeans, or side parts. Okay. Interesting. Vanta, automate compliance and security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. Let's go over to the mansion section. There's some good stuff today. Hit me. We've got a bunch of stuff. So Miami's Coconut Grove, they're calling it Billionaire's Grove. The ultra-wealthy buyers have discovered Miami's once sleepy Coconut Grove neighborhood.

1:17:47Cam in the X chat says Chewgy is being carried by millennials. Okay, interesting. Thank you, Cam. Van says, what an unk term. What an unk term. Once known as a bohemian enclave, Miami's leafy coconut grove neighborhood is quickly transforming into a billionaire's playground thanks to a string of mega sales in the area. Unlike hot spots like Miami Beach and Indian Creek, the grove, with its massive banyan trees, winding streets, and small gated communities, was little known to people outside of Miami until recently. Most people hadn't heard of it unless they were local, said real estate agent Danny Hertzberg.

1:18:22now the secret is out in a big way and it's on the cover of the wall street journal mansion section since late december google co-founder larry page has spent eight or 188.4 million dollars on three properties in coconut grove while businessman jorge jorge mas a co-owner of professional soccer team inter miami okay but what did he actually do yeah that's a good question look him up he just says he's busy introduced just getting introduced as a businessman is incredible. That's a life. Jorge Mas, president of Real Zaragoza. Okay. Is he really just a soccer guy? Nope. American billionaire businessman and chairman and the largest shareholder of Mass Tech, a Miami-based construction and engineering company.

1:19:05There we go. Founded by his father. Let's go. There we go. So he spent$100 million. Both of those properties are within a few miles of a waterfront estate billionaire Ken Griffin purchased in 2022 for$106 million. a Miami record. Locals are now competing with out-of-town buyers for homes, real estate agents said, and housing prices in Coconut Grove, especially for waterfront property, have surged. The median single-family home sale price in Coconut Grove was$2.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, more than doubling from under$1 million,$995 ,000 in 2019, so more than double in just six years.

1:19:46A$10 million home is now a$50 million home. Wow. Live, work, play. Coconut Grove was a hub for nightlife galleries and artists in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, but its retail and cultural scene faded. The housing market became kind of sleepy. Then, about a decade ago, the neighborhood's reinvention began with the redevelopment of the Cocoa Walk, open-air mall, and construction of luxury condos, which introduced$20 million pound houses to the Grove for the first time. When COVID struck, an influx of families relocating from out of town were drawn to the area, which is walkable with high-end restaurants and retail, but little tourist activity.

1:20:27Part of the Grove's appeal is its proximity to downtown Miami and the Brickell neighborhood where Griffin is building a new headquarters for Citadel. The Grove also has prestigious schools like Ransom Everglades School and Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart. Although the Grove isn't gated, there are a small number of gated communities within the neighborhoods such as Ye Little Wood, The Moorings, and Camp Biscayne. They're subtle, hidden, lush. You don't know they're there. That's a big appeal. The condo boom. New condo buildings have been at the epicenter of Coconut Grove's market resurgence.

1:21:02A decade ago, large new luxury units were relatively unknown in the area, said a developer. People thought I was crazy, Martin said, but his gamble paid off. Martin sold his own penthouse in the building for$17.8 million in 2023. Now CMC Group and Fort Partners are developing a Four Seasons branded condo in Coconut Grove. Prices raised from$5 million to$16 million, excluding penthouses, which are expected to sell for$120 million dollars combined, although that is far more expensive than any other condo sold in Coconut Grove to date. We think it's achievable, said Colombo. Great name for a Miami real estate person.

1:21:41The buyers looking for that before they would only consider Miami Beach. Now those buyers have Coconut Grove on their radar. Then there's bigger homes too. The average lot size in Coconut Grove is under an acre, which is smaller than lots and other luxury enclaves. That used to deter buyers who wanted more land. But since 2020, developers and end users alike have been expanding existing properties. People are starting to knock on the door of the neighbor next door and put together bigger assemblages. For example, Page bought a$101 million waterfront property owned by the late restaurateur Jonathan Lewis, then acquired an abutting property for$15 million.

1:22:21Page also purchased a nearby property for$71.9 million from heiress Sloan Lindemann. A few waterfront homes in Coconut Grove are highly sought after, agents said. He recently sold a$16.5 million Bayfront estate owned by Susie Welch, the widow of former General Electric co-chairman and CEO Jack Welch. Wow. I'm sick of Miami. Can we go to the mountains? What else have we got? Yeah, let's go to the mountains. What's the next story here? That is actually my general experience with Miami. It's amazing for a week. Yeah. Then I'm ready to mix it up. Well, we could go to Manhattan or we could go to Beverly Hills.

1:23:02What do you have in mind? Neither are particularly mountainous, but I guess the hills are slightly more mountainous. So there's a California villa here built for James Cagney. Do you know the famed Hollywood film star James Cagney? Never heard of him, John. Wow. What were you doing in the 1930s and the 1940s when he was making gangster films such as Angels with Dirty Faces? Crazy name. He built the stone villa around 1939. We don't know how to name movies like that. Angels with dirty faces coming to a theater near you. Buy your tickets today. A year later, so he died in 1986. A year later, his widow, Francis Cagney, sold the property to the current owner, Stephen Dunn, founder of the baby product supplier Munchkin.

1:23:50Munchkin. Dunn didn't respond to comment. Cagney lived in Beverly Hills while filming, but otherwise spent his time at his farms in upstate New York in Martha's Vineyard. Actor Robert Wagner, a friend of Cagney's, wrote in a 2014 Vanity Fair piece, the California house was unpretentious, but had a studio with a wooden floor and a record player where Cagney practiced dancing, Wagner wrote. After purchasing the Beverly Hills estate, Dunn expanded the villa to approximately 6 ,000 square feet with three bedrooms. said a listing agent. In the 1990s, Dunn purchased an adjacent parcel combining the properties into a compound spanning five acres.

1:24:30In addition to the main house, the property has a pool and a roughly 2 ,500-square-foot guesthouse. Over the years, Dunn has added more space and desks. I don't think it has a moat, but does it have a lot of stone? I know, the stone was signaling maybe there's an alligator moat. So 38.5 million, six bedrooms, bedrooms, multiple houses, tennis, pool, and your favorite, pickleball. A tennis pool? Tennis court and a pool. Okay. It has a pool cabana with an outdoor kitchen. It's landscaped extensively. It has pickleball courts. What do you think? $38.5 million for a six-bedroom. I like it. You like it.

1:25:12It's very unique. It's a buy at 38.5? It looks like it would withstand a wildfire. Yeah, that's true. That's true. The luxury market in Los Angeles is picking up after battling major headwinds, including a mansion tax and geopolitical uncertainty. World in the chat says cop, the estate, boys, new ultradome. We might have to, John, while we were live, our latest ultradome that we had an offer in on. They're out. We've had truly, if anybody has just a big building in the center of L.A., We want to give you money for it. Let us do it. We've had such a fascinating time trying to get the entertainment industry in LA's collapse.

1:25:55It's a ghost town. It's a modern Detroit. And yet we cannot find a building. I don't know why people like me. I keep talking trash about them in this town. You got to glaze. You got to triple glaze them. It's the best. It's the best town. We just want to build it even better. Yeah, all we're trying to do is bring media back to Hollywood. it's not degrading at all when you say it like that maybe we should move to milan it's the gold metal housing market they're saying the city co-hosting the winter olympics is a fashion hub with europe's hottest luxury residential market when the world's winter sports elite gatherers this elite gathers this week for the opening ceremony of the milan cortina winter olympics they're starting this week have you been to that arch no i've never been to milan right nice i've never been to Milan.

1:26:44It's a fashion and design hub that has long been the country's main economic center. It is increasingly becoming a tourist destination. And in 2017, Italy introduced tax laws favorable to new residents, which led to - What about data centers? Yes. Let's convert Milan. A data center with that original arch aesthetic? For sure. Would really be - It would It would fix me. It would fix Tyler. I mean, imagine it. We don't know how to make data centers that look like this. Everyone's talking about putting them in space. Why can't we convert some of these? We're not just putting them in Milan. We're putting them in the most expensive neighborhood in Milan.

1:27:27That's Brera. Brera is a small, exclusive neighborhood just west of the city's premier shopping district around Via Monte Napoleon. residential real estate in Brera where most homes are apartments is currently the city's most expensive Brera's high-end sector had an average sale price of$1 ,868 per square foot what would it cost to put Colossus there how many square feet is Colossus I want to know how many because we got a we got to go apartment by apartment racking NBL 72's in Milan in the Brera neighborhood specifically. A renovated duplex sold for just over 28 million dollars, the most ever paid for a Milan apartment, the adjacent Quartilleria della Moda or fashion district, home to brands like Gucci and Cartier, was once the city's most expensive, but Brera has suddenly surpassed it.

1:28:24It's more livable, well for now until we put these data centers in there. You can walk to the shops, but you're not living in a shop. People want penthouses with views and the, yeah, there's a couple of other things in Brera. I don't know. Maybe that's the location of the next Ultra Dome. Let me tell you about app loving. Profitable advertising made easy with Axon.ai. Get access to over 1 billion daily active users and grow your business today. Tyler, what's it gonna cost me to put a Colossus-sized data center in the Brera district in Milan, the neighborhood in Milan, that costs$1 ,800 per square foot.

1:29:04Okay, so apparently Colossus 1 is only 785 ,000 square feet. Okay. So it's only going to be like 1.4 or 1.5 billion. Billion. Yeah. Doable. So not bad at all. Easy. I mean, putting a, you know, to build a gigawatt of a data center is like 50 billion, right? Yeah. That's like in that range. So, I mean, this is like kind of a no-brainer. It's a no-brainer. It's a no-brainer. As is interviewing Doug O 'Loughlin after earnings when he's suffering from Claude Coat psychosis. Welcome to the stream, Doug. How are you doing? I'm doing wonderful. How are you guys doing? Great to see you. Can we pull up the video that John painstakingly made this morning that completely flopped?

1:29:48I'm very excited to have you on the show. It feels like that scene in Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which I saw, where Sonic and Shadow team up and join forces to talk about CapEx and agentic coding. What's new in your world? Is Claude Code still the top of mind, or are you still churning through the CapEx numbers from earnings? Are you somewhat of an agent for Claude now, like you work for Claude? I do, actually. I think I mostly just move my information back and forth, you know? I have pretty much, like, I think of it as, like, my manager. You know, like, it tells me what to do, and then I go bring the information, and I bring it to my coworkers, I bring it back.

1:30:31All day, I'm just on Cloud Code. How many prompts are you running right now? Do you have any threads going? Okay, so I have seven threads. Seven that are running right now? No, no, not running. waiting for your input. I'm waiting for my input. We'll let you get back to it. Why don't you just have an ape that just manages the other? Let's talk about, yeah, orchestration. Have you played with Gastown? Are you thinking about abstracting yourself to a higher level? Okay, so Gastown is pretty intense. I don't think Gastown is going to work out. I think it's going to be Agent Swarms. Okay, explain the difference between Gastown and Agent Swarms.

1:31:15Okay, so Gastown is probably the most forward-looking thing I've read in a lot of seconds. It talks about how you created this self-healing tool process to essentially pass all these beads across and have all these workers and ways to self-repair the agent workflow process. And I read it, and I was like, dude, this is brilliant and also fucking crazy. It feels like the ravings of a madman. And then I proceeded, well, I was also in my badman era. Like before the New Year's, when you had 2x times usage, I pretty much was like literally railing quad code constantly. I think I had four 14-hour days.

1:31:57Wow. Yeah, it was beautiful. It was beautiful. Okay, so talk to us about what you're actually building because, you know, we're talking about SaaSpocalypse. It feels like there's a debate over rebuild all your tools from scratch to save whatever your SaaS fees are. Yeah, and even yesterday it was notable, OpenAI comes out with Frontier, which is you look at like, you've got to look at this like graphic, which feels like it was made for, you know, a Fortune 500 CEO to kind of, or management team to kind of understand it. And it's like, here's more SaaS to replace your other SaaS, right? It's like, you know, you've got the system of record down here, you have a bunch of agents in between, and then you've got different applications that you're using.

1:32:38And meanwhile, Anthropics just like, We're making a really smart digital guy that can do whatever you want. Yeah, so I think there's two really interesting ways. I think OpenAI is like the Fortune 500 selling it from the top, if it makes sense. And then Anthropic is like, here's your cloud code agent, sell 20 ,000 of them. Did you see the Accenture partnership? I think that's really interesting. So if you go back, they're doing 30 ,000 people at Accenture. What do you mean? To like 30 ,000 people at Accenture are going to learn how to cloud code. Oh. And then they'll be deployed into different companies.

1:33:20Yeah. Who knows? Who knows? What else would they do? Maybe they just replaced Accenture. I mean, that's what they're going to be doing, I think. Okay. Wait, so what do you mean if Accenture folks are using cloud code, wouldn't they be using it on consulting projects internally to companies? I think they're going to be using it internally. So they're going to be using it internally, and then they're going to be doing all these consulting things. Because if you think about it, one of the issues is like, you know when you had SaaS, one of the biggest issues of like changing from one CRM to another was effectively being like, hey, everyone, you're going to have to quit your jobs for like 10 months to figure this out.

1:34:01The implementation, like you have tons and tons of like consultants do that. And I think that that's what the Accenture partnership is. So essentially, people are going to be implementing Cloud Code, and there's 30 ,000 people at Accenture who's going to do it. And then on the other side, you have Frontier, which is like the Fortune 500 way of being like, here's your plan. Come to us, and we'll build this whole thing, blah, blah, blah. So yeah. But is re-implementing your CRM really the lowest hanging fruit for America's greatest companies? It can't possibly. There must be new ideas, new problems to solve, new tools to build.

1:34:35Like, why are we just going to shuffle the chips around the board instead of like doing something productive? Okay, so I think the system of record refresh is going to be really awesome because, you know, like the big, I mean, it honestly does feel kind of boomer. If you think about it, it's like the biggest data now. Everyone can have the big data now. But I think the automation that you've always dreamed of is actually going to happen. And the system of record is just going to essentially have hooks out to all these other things that are going to build on top of it, which is mostly like, you know, the frontier thing.

1:35:05And essentially all the information work is just going to be all on the agent and everything else is going to be a place where it lives and is stored for funsies. So instead of me having someone, let me use my personal stack at SemiAalysis. We use HubSpot, for example. So hey, the sales this quarter, we need this quota or who did what or what products are selling better. How many more podcasts should Dylan do this month? if we want to hit our goal that's totally different we don't actually have like our our like you know the big yeah sure how many more podcasts shit like that right um i could just vibe code it i was just like hey can you run this analysis for me and in a perfect futuristic world it'll go into the crm pull all the information of the all of our inbounds yeah make it be like hey uh the day after dylan goes on a podcast there's like 25 people who who come in the conversion rate is X, you could price it at this.

1:36:03Dylan, quit your, you know, stop working and effectively just like hit the podcast. There we go. You know, like, yeah, yeah, exactly. So you could do this with anything though. Like, just information, man. Like, it's going to be pretty sick. But I think all the SaaS companies are going to essentially just become hooks for all the crap they've built on top of it. Yeah. Did you see Jensen yesterday was kind of defending some companies like SAP in service now and saying, hey, if I was a really smart humanoid out doing work in the world and I needed a screwdriver, would I just invent a new screwdriver or would I just take one off the shelf?

1:36:42And so that was like his defense. Tyler here took the other side of it and just said, there's going to be a lot of situations where, especially in a software-only environment, it's easier to just build a very specific workflow that you need that you would have gotten from a SaaS provider versus, you know, you don't need to actually rebuild the entire platform. Yeah, I think we're going to be building a lot of screwdrivers, like things like the thing that's important is like, okay, you're not going to rent a truck, right? Like, like, you're not going to build your own truck, but your own screwdriver 100%.

1:37:15Like, like, you're doing this big, ginormous job, you need a hammer, you'd be like, okay, pull it out of my belt, okay? But you're not going to be like, I'm about to move 700 tons of like here to here. I need to rent a truck. You're not going to build the truck. And so that's what I think the system records are going to look like. They're going to look like places where like actual data that cannot be like, like cannot be vibed effectively. Like what's your inventory cannot have any fucking hallucinations, right? Like your ERP, but all of that will just be hooks for everything else because like all the information of just like pulling, retrieving, making the correlation, running the charts.

1:37:52Like people make mistakes in that all the time. But then how do you square the fact that a system of record is way less sticky if you have agents that can work around the clock to switch you over to a different system of record? Like that still ends up putting massive pricing pressure. So to be clear, I don't think it's good for everyone. Like I think my favorite analogy of this is like there actually is a very old school type of software that's like existed for a long time uh all the shit on main frames it's all it's all out there yeah um and you know like funny enough mainframes still grew like six percent a year or whatever someone has the real number from like 2002 yeah to 2020 it's crazy so like they're they're gonna grow but it's just gonna be like a very different vision of the world that i don't think people are ready for yeah um and and the adjustment period is the big problem because all the stocks are priced like they're not going to be mainframes.

1:38:47And also just for context, mainframes are like, hey, there's one of each company now. There's not like 10. There's one each. Yeah. So I think with all these, whether you're a system of record or you're some vertical software, you're going to need to show insane revenue growth in a truly AI native product. Otherwise, Otherwise investors, I think are going to continue to not be able to create a super compelling narrative. Why you should own it during this period of uncertainty. Yeah. I mean, pretty much what happens and we're going to go like investor brain. When anything goes X growth, the multiple goes massively down.

1:39:27Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. Eight times earnings. Can you talk a little bit more about what you're actually coding, what you're building, like what the software is? Because from the demos that I've seen that you've posted, it feels much more like you have an agent that can do knowledge retrieval, data transformation, build dashboards, charts, and knowledge work as opposed to truly replacing software tools at this point. but have you built anything that's long-lived and runs daily or is something you keep revisiting because it's now a piece of software that does the job reliably? The COD Code Commits is now software that lives and runs every single day.

1:40:10That's like a scraper, right? And that lives in a database and that will run forever. There's a lot of other tracking price data tool stuff. A lot of the scraping that is not publicly available Like we do like a lot of that. Like we had a data team just do that. And now effectively we can like really accelerate that. So everyone can do that. Sure, sure, sure. There are other like little things that I think are like heuristics, like little skills of like, I have blind spots that I consistently make over and over. And I'm like, hey, I know this blind spot's an issue, but you should like consider this in this case.

1:40:46I don't think it's like the galaxy brain software. And we're very far from there because if you actually play with these tools a lot, Context Rod is real. Yeah. So. But how fast is it getting better? Because it feels like we're seeing the meter graph. Scary fast. Scary fast, right? Scary, scary, scary. So I started Vibe coding with Cloud 4. Yeah. And it just wasn't, or sorry, Opus 4 on Cloud Code. And it just could not one-shot websites in the way that 4.5 and 4.6 can. Yep. And if it just marginally improves from here, it feels like why would I pay for like any kind of UI UX if it just could be generated at a good enough quality?

1:41:27Yeah. How did you process the new models this week? 4.6, 5.3? What's the review? If you can't immediately notice the difference between 4.5 and 4.6, start polishing your resume. You are cooked. Yeah. You just got automated by an agent.

1:41:51I think 4.6 was a little disappointing, if I'm being honest with you. I think it might have been Sonnet 5. Oh, that's what people are saying. That's the conspiracy theory, right? But what does that mean? The original Sonnet 5 leaks were that it's as good as Opus 4.5, but with 1 million context window, and specifically trained for Asian swarms. Sure. That's Opus 4.6. Does that just mean like same quality, but faster, cheaper, at least for Anthropic? Yeah, and they make more money. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, better margins. How are the margins looking for the labs right now? There was a bunch of like FUD around it, but it seems like from all the leaks, it's been like 50%, 60%, 70%.

1:42:33Pretty good. Yeah. If you X all the free users, it's always really good, right? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Honestly, Anthropic has no free users or like on a relative basis. So their margins are ironically like kind of on a like-to-like basis, kind of not as good as you think. Yeah. Can you break down a little bit more of the thesis of the Claude Code is an inflection point article? What the key takeaway, who you're speaking to, what update you wanted to share? And then I want to go into some of the pushback and your response to that. Yeah, sure. Sure. So first, I think the thing that makes me really excited is the first time since Shana thought, I feel like we have a new scaling that feels very, very different and hardcore.

1:43:20And I can actually see my entire life day-to-day change. I think I can expect some version of a Cloud Code harness to be effectively all my information work from now till the future. I am a daily user. I was not a daily user before. and I expect to continue to be one. And that's kind of what happened with the reasoning models. It went from like, you could ask it stuff, but it might hallucinate to like, the answers are good. Like you can pretty much rely, and there's going to be citations and like, it's going to be 99.999 % like usable for things. So you just have a question, you get that. It may be not great at certain things, but in general, like it delivered on the initial like chat experience that I think a lot of people were looking for.

1:44:05And then they became DAUs. Yeah. How much do you think Anthropic cares more about winning in consumer than they've let on to date? No, I don't think so. Everyone who works there is exactly like what you think it is. They're exactly who they say they are. Yeah. They're software singularity pilled. Yeah. And then I think co-work is what they're really excited about. Sure. Makes sense. Yeah. Yeah, what did this pushback mean? So they're not even thinking about a scenario where a bunch of people are using Claude in a work setting and say, hey, this is pretty great, and yeah, ChatGPT has ads, I'm happy to pay$20 a month, I'll use it personally.

1:44:51Because I just think there's like an iPhone, like I think the game to get to like 3 billion users is like over when you just look at the traction of like Gemini and ChatGPT and the fact that normal people aren't caring that much about the nuance. Maybe they don't have that much to automate in their life, but there's an iPhone-sized market. The iPhone wasn't the first smartphone to launch, and it's possible when I see this, the Super Bowl ad, the sort of trust nuke, I was calling it, just like, hey, it's really funny. They're rage-baiting open AI, but at the same time, they're just destroying like trust around ads and LLMs potentially like permanently, right?

1:45:33Because people, even when they start seeing ads that are more like display ads, they'll start thinking, well, like was the result influenced too? You know, it just like, it hurts the trust. And so I think there, I think my, my theory is that any product that like really catches on in the workplace could very well trickle over into, into life. And Anthropic could someday have a pretty big, you know, they could have like a Netflix size subscriber base for people that just want an ad free AI experience. Yeah. That sounds completely right to me. But you're saying for your point is like, it's just secondary to them.

1:46:08They're like, it's a nice to have, but like, we don't, that's not, that's not our intention. I think, okay. So singularity pill, but I also, I think you have to pay for the singularity and I think it's going to be enterprise that does it. Makes sense. Yeah. Yeah. I mean the other, take on like you could wind up being like the Apple and like the premium, you know, privacy focused, or you could wind up being like the DuckDuckGo, which was like, yeah, it was a counter to Google, but it never got to any meaningful scale. Yeah, but I still think OpenAI is the Apple. Like Apple was synonymous with smartphones when it really took off.

1:46:43Like what is the other smartphone? Blackberry, Nokia. Maybe you can argue this is like a Blackberry. Yeah, I can't name it. Yeah. Well, like BlackBerry, right? It was known for work. Yeah. And then obviously, like it swapped over. So I still think OpenAI is like the cognitive reference. And honestly, 5.3 cooks. Yeah. Faster or just better? Or both? Faster and better. Faster and better. Okay. Talk about 5.2 token efficiency. Rune was pushing back on the article saying, You're making the assertion that 5.2 token efficiency ruins long horizon planning, and yet 5.2 tops the meter chart for long horizon planning, half-baked.

1:47:28What's the explanation there? Didn't someone completely mock that argument? But he's kind of a, he's like, sorry, I got to find the guy. But it's like, I don't know what task is being done here. Like, are they the same hardness? yes did you just spam it to infinity and like you finish like a sufficiently long task to completion versus like um like okay let's just say we have two kids taking the sat and one does a better job and finishes first and one does like almost as good of a job and took seven times as long and you're like wow that one's a smart kid yeah no dude that doesn't make any sense yeah yeah yeah Yeah, that makes sense.

1:48:10Yeah, an elegant solution delivered faster is uniformly better. Yeah, 100%. That makes sense. Yeah, and so if you spam more tokens and you win and you're like, oh, look, I mobbed them. And it's like, dude, what if you just use less tokens? I think the benchmark is supposed to be for, they have a reference class of projects that are supposed to take X amount of time. They would take a human developer six hours. And then they have all the models compete. and if you can compete the six-hour task, then you get put at the six-hour mark. It's not, did you run for six hours? Okay, that makes sense. So it could be like implement a CRM product or write a very complicated database or something.

1:48:54It would take a talented software developer six hours, two hours, one hour, and they have different tasks, and then you're trying to climb that hurdle. Oh, yeah, and then it climbs higher and higher and higher. I think that's loosely. because obviously you could just say, okay, just reasoning, count to one billion and just go as slow as, and it works for days, and that's not impressive. Yeah, I also think the meter, yeah, I mean, it's, okay, so yeah, you're right, the different, the scaling thing, but like, okay, so one, the other thing I was doing, like now that we have vibe coding available to everyone, you can just have it do the same task and do like ABC.

1:49:29Like I've been doing like a lot of internal benchmarking. Like everyone can benchmark guys. But it's like, dude, Codex 5.2 took so long and just never billed for me. And it's like all the Codex hype during, like, it just never worked for me, man. Like, it never one-shot projects like Opus 4.5 did. And I'm just like, this feels like complete foot. But that being said, Codex 5.3 cooks. Like, I think I take everything back about 5.2 for 5.3. Nice. Total reversal. So a classic AI narrative, just day by day, complete switching of the narrative. Talk about the NPM downloads, because you said that you're now scraping them every day, trying to understand how many commits on GitHub are related to cloud code.

1:50:13And the pushback from Rune was that this counts NPM downloads as authoritative when cloud code numbers are hugely inflated, because GitHub Actions does automatic cloud code download every time continuous integration CI runs, versus Codex compute cloud. So maybe it's not apples to apples. What's more nuance on the fast takeoff of cloud code? Because honestly, when you said 20 % of commits by the end of the year, I was like, that feels extremely low. I would expect like 70%. And I would expect Codex to be at 30 % and no more human commits because it's working. So I wanted to make sure we have like a high standard, like a high 95 % plus.

1:50:54I don't think, like, sure. If it continues to grow on a week-on-week basis, like, yeah, it's like, you know, 100 % by June or something like that. Well, there's also the fact that, like, you could be writing code and still just, like, almost be using cloud code as, like, your linter or, like, your interface to GitHub. And if there's an abstraction layer there that people adopt, you're going to see the commits go through the roof, even if they're still human in the loop meaningfully. Look, look, look. Yeah, yeah. I'm not going to pretend, like, the cloud code commits thing is, like, the cleanest way ever.

1:51:22There's a lot of ways to fuck the data up. For example, people who use who you could just say don't do this and won't do it. Number two, like private on a ratio is like five times bigger. Sure. That matters way more. Yep. And then like I also think that like the way you consume it, like this doesn't count for cursor. People have been clearly using AI for like a long while. It doesn't show up. Yep. This is just the example I can like say. That's cool. Like, hey, chart goes up really quickly. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's so cool. It's not perfect. Yeah. It's a data set that I create in a relatively short amount of time.

1:51:58I'm like, I don't know. Seems pretty cool. Yeah. No, it is. Can we talk about Amazon? Yeah. Yeah. Let's move over to hyperscalers. Reaction was the number two low. Yeah. Barish. They're not taking it seriously. Future Billion was crazy. That was crazy to me. Okay. Why? Yeah. That was really shocking. We do a lot of data center tracking and we do a lot of accelerated tracking. and we were 2-0. Okay, are they trying to play some sort of hype game where they're throwing out the biggest number and they're not actually even going to be able to buy enough equipment to spend it? Even if they are signaling to the market, we're going to be hearing like, well, we wanted to buy this many NVIDIA chips, but we couldn't get them.

1:52:40Or we have a delay at this data center because of regulation. And so they're just trying to project strength because they're sort of behind on the AI narrative a little bit. They don't have the big position that Microsoft does in open AI. They don't have, you know, a deep mind level team. And so they're saying we're going to go biggest on the dollar front, but then maybe they don't deliver on it. Or do you think at the end of the year we'll be like, yeah, they spent 200 billion. I think at the end of the year they're going to be like, yeah, they spent 200 billion. Let's go. They are the single biggest provider of power in the entire world, I think.

1:53:17like the incremental and the AWS like supply chain can ramp a lot quicker than anyone else and every example that we track in the data center like the data center team they are on time and can scale to like levels that are crazy like Rainier's ramp is just like out of this world fast compared to everyone else every other gigawatt project is essentially delayed and they're going to be like ish on time wow so isn't that extremely just like good for Amazon. They're properly positioned. They're properly transitioning. Yeah, who knows what happens to the rest of the business. But eventually this thing is just part of the infrastructure.

1:53:55We were talking earlier like Jassy didn't exactly paint this incredibly exciting vision and share like, hey, you guys are actually underestimating demand. Still, even if you're bullish on AI, you're underestimating demand and we're in a position to actually try to get a more accurate read here and that's why we're investing. yeah, and it's funny because they could have said one thing that would have made the AWS call better, and they'd be like, yeah, we see high 20s, and, like, the stock would have ripped. But they're like, we continue to project to see this level of growth. What percentage of the$200 billion do you think will actually flow to NVIDIA?

1:54:35Because NVIDIA is rallying today. That's why we're wearing white suits, but it didn't rally immediately in after hours. I think a meaningful amount. I definitely cannot disclose what semi-analysis thinks, but I think they're going to run out of Tranium. And the answer is, what's the biggest amount of supply chain that's locked up? It's NVIDIA. Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. Can you get Macron a free semi-analysis plan? Because he came out this week with his big new initiative, 30 million euros for AI research. research. France is going to be the home of research. How do you think all the hyperscalers will respond?

1:55:19You know what's crazy is people have been trying to do a lot of work in France for a long time because they have this giant nuclear power plant. Yeah, it's kind of stranded and no one uses it. And like everyone wants to be like, dude, I can get a gigawatt here. And then they like try to start building and they're just like, yeah, this is never going to happen. I'm Even though the United States is all fucked up, it's like, I can start there. And they're like, no, no, no, no, we'll start in five years. And I can think of two specific projects that essentially did the same thing. It was like, oh, my God, all this France data center power.

1:55:54And then they started and they're like, never mind. Yeah. Why do you think Grok is climbing the charts right now? Any insight? It's like number three after Get Free Cash and after ChatGPT in the overall app store. The iOS app store. I did actually one, um, this tells you how locked in I've been with cloud code. I had no idea. Yeah. Um, you're so locked in with cloud researching the AI race that you, it's just, yeah, it's interesting. I mean, I, I, you know, the, the app store is based on like acceleration, but you know, the, the, the grok hype cycle of like, you know, let's push all the Twitter users or the X users there.

1:56:34Like that sort of already happened. Like, I don't know how this is happening because there isn't much hype about it. Yeah. It's happening off X. Yeah. And a lot of people were like, yeah, like you can talk to Ani and Valentine, but like, is that really popular? Might be. I don't know. Ani singularity. The real singularity is lonely people. Yeah. Oh my God. Maybe. I did see a video of like the Stormlight Archive thing and that I feel like, like hit a broader audience in terms of video generation. And I think video generation, like that always kind of wins. Yeah. We actually did an analysis of this a while ago.

1:57:11Yeah, which is why you need to be bullish on the Disney OpenAI deal. I think so. Yeah, you have to be. We've seen the Nano Banana bump with Gemini, and this feels like it could be on an entirely different level. You know, my favorite thing is Gemini wasn't what actually made it rip. It was Nano Banana. Yeah. The ratio really improved in terms of OpenAI to Gemini way before, And then Gemini slightly helped, but I would say it's like 90 % is banana banana. No, no, no, no. You can just share an image and it's immediately apparent what is going on. It's a unique capability that you can't get anywhere else.

1:57:52They've cornered the market, specifically on the image editing, not just the diffusion, but being able to take a photo, change the background, and have it actually look like your face or have the text look great. It was a unique product, really, beyond a model. Yeah. Oh, this is, by the way, this is my final steaming hot take in COD code. Please. The reason why you should actually pay attention so much is because this is the first time, like, image models essentially always gain share. Video models always gain share, like Studio Ghibli moment. And then obviously ChatGPT. This is the first, like, new moment.

1:58:28Yeah. It's a new modality, being the agent. And it's, like, actually kicking off. Yeah. I mean, how important do you think the co-work, like a desktop app, mobile functionality is to that? Because you can have truly magic. Chad has some insight. A lot of people using Grok Video to compete for a$1 million contest. Oh, that's right. It's free money. Free money. Free money. Okay. Yeah. So it's free cash and then free money. The top two apps in the top three give you cash. That is a good fact check. Thank you, Chad. But yeah, my question about like, can you have a Studio Ghibli-like moment if you have to open up a terminal just because there are so many normies that just will never open the terminal no matter how magical the AI god is behind the terminal.

1:59:16It's just too much to go type one line of command. That's why Cowork and Codex are gonna probably be what actually happens. I think it's really fun to play around in the like whatever 1 % adopter. And I'm really enjoying it, but I just don't think like, like, yeah, it's going to be coworker codex. And codex is actually pretty good. Codex is, I think, a slightly more polished experience than coworker. Yeah. Last question for me. Take me on the journey of what's going on with Microsoft, what you predicted, how that's changed, how their strategy has changed. Like, give me the proper way to understand Microsoft these days.

1:59:56Yeah, Microsoft's not in the race, bro. Why? Where are they? I know, but they're getting owned. They have all of the IP. I agree with you. I don't understand why it's not like, oh, 5.3 launches? Microsoft's announcing it the same day, and it's actually integrated, and people are using it on day one. It takes time. It's a skill issue. Yeah. It's clearly something's going on. And honestly, the thing that makes me most bearish that is the fact that Satya is like, I'm not the CEO of him. I'm the product manager of Copilot because I'm so boned if I don't get this figured out like you can argue it is now existential he's decided like hey my CEO job is getting this one thing right otherwise we're screwed and that is kind of worrying it does feel like they could potentially also the pullback at the beginning of last year kind of the quick pause is now looking silly in the context of Amazon coming in now and saying, yeah, everybody's on board now.

2:00:59We'll see. Yeah. Yeah, we'll see. I think they have the most to lose. What about GPU utilization? Brad Gerstner was hosting CNBC today, which was very cool, talking about how in the dot com build out, the dark fiber was something only like 7 % of fiber that was being laid was actually being used. It was like obvious even at the time that and yet now we're seeing GPU utilization rates, you know, maxed out. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's a pretty good counterpoint to anyone who's like, whatever. At this point, H100 pricing has massively firmed up. B200 pricing definitely has super firmed up. And hey, there's clearly demand.

2:01:48I mean, whatever they're doing on the other side of it, that's the customer's issues. But I mean, I still think, honestly, man, the codex, or sorry, my brain's all messed up. Cloud code has been the most magical moment in technology for me in like my entire time. I think it just feels awesome. Since the Game Boy. Dude, this is better than Game Boys for me. I'm an information addict though. Yeah, makes sense. I am. So, yeah. Well, we appreciate you taking the time to come chat with us and writing about it and everything that you do. If you're listening, go hop on Semi Analysis. Sign up for the$10 million a year plan.

2:02:31you get Doug's phone number. You can text him. You actually can, actually. I know, I know. You should just do it, though. I mean, and it's underpriced. You're giving it away. It's taking away your time from all your different agents. So you've got to price it. Yeah, you're right. That's right. My manager will hate that. Have a good rest of your day. Have a good weekend. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. Goodbye. Fin.ai, the number one AI agent for customer service. If you want AI to handle your customer support, go to fin.ai. And without further ado, we have Max Levchin, the CEO of Affirm. I'm Coffee King.

2:03:10Welcome to the show. Max, what's going on? Great to see you. See you guys. How's it going? Doing great. Catch us up on the last quarter. Pretty damn great, if I do say so myself. 36 % year-over-year growth of sales. Wow. Way more merchants. It's first billion dollars in revenue quarter, 1.1-ish. Insane.

2:03:38What's driving that? Obviously, there's some seasonality, but what are the inputs? End of the year quarter, some important sales. Times happen then, Black Friday comes to mind. The outlier grower is a firm card. That thing is still absolutely on fire growing over 100 % year over year, both active users, transactions, like every metric you can imagine. I think it's for triple digits. We did a thing in October. We decided we're going to invent our own shopping holiday. Call it the big nothing because basically everyone got a 0 % APR deal. I draw your attention to the fact that when we say it's 0 % APR, it's 0 % APR and it doesn't change.

2:04:21It doesn't flip. We don't cheat. No fine print. No fine print of our core values. literally somewhere on the wall here. Yeah, right there in the corner. It says, go by the print and stick to it. And so it really blew up. We expected it to be big, but it was really, really big. And we had a load of merchants basically subsidize APRs down to zero for just about everyone. It had a huge impact on our numbers. Okay, so it was enabled by the individual merchants. Yeah, so the merchants basically said, hey, you know what? We will pay your interest. That's going to be true. Cool. I want to talk about fintech broadly.

2:05:04It's been an absolutely wild week in the markets. I think everybody's been looking at PayPal, just wondering how can a business with this kind of user base, this much... Network effects, licenses. Heavily regulated, all these different things. it doesn't obviously there's a management component to it last thing you'd vibe code and yet it feels like it's part of that software sass apocalypse but how have you been processing sort of like the ai craziness narrative it feels like we were saying like maybe people are giving a little bit too much credit to the ai labs as disruptors but how have you been processing it i don't know if I would throw the PayPal baby with the AI bathwater, if you will.

2:05:56I think the, it's always very dangerous to comment on what the market's really saying. The market's not human. All sorts of things, but short term, it's a voting machine. So, I think the PayPal thing is It's really not a commentary on software is cheap, software is free. Like if you look at the strategy of the outgoing CEO, who I know pretty well and respect greatly, he's a real bona fide product guy. I should know one since I make myself one of those. His strategy was very much build more software, expand the footprint of PayPal into all kinds of really interesting directions. And so if, and obviously I was not even a little bit privy to any of the decisions taking place or why did they choose to change management.

2:06:43but if the company believed that software is better, cheaper, easier to build, they wouldn't have changed horses because the previous guy was absolutely beating the drum of let's build software. I don't know why and what they'll do next, but I do agree with you. It is my first child. I feel a little bit sad, but I do compete with it now with my second child. It's so bad. Yeah, I guess what do you – so there's a lot of AI opportunity with a firm. The opportunity, one, people just understanding more about the financial products that they use in their everyday life and start to choose products that don't have all the fine print.

2:07:24Obviously, efficiency in the business is a whole other one. I'm sure that you're getting a lot out of that. But when people ask you about the AI risk to a firm, anything on the risk side, and then payments companies as well, what is your answer? So I think I have a fairly basic framework, how I think about sort of AI changes everything. It doesn't change that much. Sort of, you know, very broad characterization here. if you're in the business of owning cash flow producing assets or better yet manufacturing cash flow producing assets you're probably going to be okay like today if you're making things that create cash flow you're probably using software if you're not you're not doing it right and so if you are and you're using software making software to create cash flowing assets it's about to get really really cheap and much faster and a lot more efficient and we're certainly taking full advantage of that idea at the firm.

2:08:25And that's what we do. We make cashflow producing assets. They're known as a firm loans. There are about 40 odd million of them made every quarter and growing quickly. It is difficult to roll out of bed and say, let's vibe code that because you can vibe code some of the code, but before you get to our scale or our revenue, you have to convince the enormous number of outmarked partners you need to process on your tens of billions of dollars of loans. We're not a bank. We're not lending from our own deposits. That means someone downstream is financing these loans. And so those relationships are not vibe-coded and they can't happen overnight.

2:09:03You can't vibe-code a relationship, a real one. You can't. And so with payments, you have the whole regulatory side too. If you're going and you're like in your dorm room and you're like, hey, I built PayPal. And you go to say like, okay, now I should probably get some money transmitter licenses. Like, you know, I expect at some point regulators to say like, okay, like what does your operation look like? Do you have any compliance experience? And all these things. And so at some point, and then what you're saying is the capital markets is probably even a bigger challenge. Let's say you can somehow get the licenses, then are people going to trust you with, you know, billions of dollars?

2:09:46Exactly. the both another sort of way of cutting the whole ai accelerates everything some things are still taking about as long as they always did so regulators are not going to be like oh cool you're in your dorm room you bi-coded a global payment network right on here's some license it takes 18 months to get a full complement of mtls and by the way you have to like prove that you're a legitimate business and you're not going to be used for money laundering so and there and it's very expensive it's not like it's like a driver's license where you get it and there's no kind of like ongoing like it's like you need to be able to like carry the the weight of of of the licensee yeah so licensing regulatory acceptance regulatory relationships and capital markets is a lot and it takes a long time to prove that as you put someone else's money at risk you're going to bring it back with interest so that's a big part of what we do another set of relationships you can't vibe code is we have last quarter four-ish hundred thousand active merchants where these transactions took place.

2:10:49Each one of those is a sales conversation, contract negotiation, going live, et cetera. The going live part is going to get a lot faster. So we could now go to a merchant and say, hey, good news. We're going to vibe code the launch together. It'll be a lot quicker. So instead of going live next quarter, we'll go live next week. But until we get there, someone still has to decide that this is a good contract and prove that this will be accretive to the merchant. And finally, maybe the most important set of relationships is the consumer one. So we have 26 million active consumers in the last 12 months.

2:11:21These are people that trusted us that the no fine print thing is real. It took us 15 years to convince people that when we say 0 % loan, like the original conversations I had literally with people both in the industry and the man on the street, like, we're going to lend money at no interest so long as the merchants will subsidize the transaction. Like, yeah, sure, no interest, but it's going to be a fine brand. It's going to go to 39 % APR. Like, no, it really never does. Never had, never will. That's part of the core value of this company. It takes a little while to convince people that you're not just, you know, I'm not a group type thing.

2:11:56So I'm fairly confident in our ability to lend our Yeah. Last question for me. I'm interested to know, we're very excited about ads and ChatGPT and Agente Commerce. Do you have a feeling, not to hold you to something, but just how fast the ramp in Agente Commerce and people actually making the decision to purchase in a chat app might be? We talked to the folks at Shopify a lot. We're trying to triangulate this. I thought last Black Friday might be a little glimmer of it. It feels like they're still implementing a lot of things. Obviously, there's details to iron out. But it feels like certainly this year could be the time when we're seeing 0.1%, 1%.

2:12:41I don't know. 10 % seems sort of high and crazy. But it's where the future is going. But how do you think about agent of commerce numbers this year? don't hold me to it i won't the the curves are all turning vertical okay and so it's hard to say if it's one if it's one that it's 10 and if it's 10 it's a lot yeah but i think some shopping is going to turn very agentic as in i will tell my yeah you know consumer co-worker equivalent or what you know what you're filling your favorite brand yeah go buy me some milk yeah like the rest will just happen, which will be awesome. I will also do that today with Instagram.

2:13:24I'm going to buy a cool new espresso machine which I'm currently shopping for obsessively. Of course. I want that experience to be much more interactive because I'm obsessed with espresso. And so entertainment is like nerding out. I'm like, ooh, they have a rotary pump. It's not as loud as the vibration one. So I think it's going to become augmented by agents, but it's still going to be like, I'm very much a part of this. And that becomes to blend into like, well, research with Google versus research with Gemini is the same thing. Which sort of brings me to, I think there's quite a bit of industry pearl clutching around ads and chatbots.

2:14:02Oh my God. I think that's the best thing that's going to happen to this industry. Like everyone is holding their breath around, on one hand, will AI kill software, software eats software, whatever. It's like, well, we'll be able to afford this giant build out so these models can get smarter. Guess what? Look, we make most of the money on the internet, not us, but most of the rest of the internet makes money with ads. And so ads in the single-fastly-growing piece of the internet wouldn't be such a bad thing for people that need a lot of capital. So I, for one, welcome the ads and bots, so long as clearly delineated, ethical conclusions, all that stuff.

2:14:34But I think it's coming fast. And I think so far most people have underpredicted the pace of these changes. So I'm not going to claim that it's going to be 10 % by the end of the year. but it wouldn't shock me. Yeah, that would be sort of my high bound. And it'll be hard to measure because with that espresso machine people will clearly do a ton of I could imagine firing off a deep research report. Tell me everything. Understand the landscape. How long are the companies? I want to know the company's history. Who's the founder? Tell me everything. But then also I want to go to the website and also I want to go to the showroom and also, you know, and then maybe I make the purchase after talking to somebody.

2:15:11I walk out of the store and I say, hey, buy that thing. Ship it here. Or maybe I do all the research and then I tell someone else to just purchase it and they go buy it in person because I want it the same day. There's like a million different edge cases. So the number will be hard, but my vibes-based analysis is right in the same target slot as yours. So fantastic. Last question for me. What's your buy versus build framework in the context of a firm. You guys are clearly able to take products zero to one internally quite well with the card, but at the same time, it feels like there's so much in the world that's on sale right now.

2:15:50True.

2:15:54M &A-wise, we've done a couple of things well and a bunch of things less well, and so we're very, very cautious. As the world goes on sale, it's tempting to look at things that are maybe undervalued, maybe could plug right into the puzzle or accountability here. Generally speaking, we're super cautious. So for the number of people that run in with like, hey, cool, we can buy this thing now, my answer typically is like, why would we benefit from this? Like, is this better owned by us? Maybe a different version of the same question is - Well, yeah, yeah. Just because you might make a fantastic CEO of a company that's on sale doesn't mean that it wouldn't be massively distracting if you were to try to integrate it and make it a part of the ecosystem.

2:16:41Yeah, and back to sort of like some things are super accelerating and some things are exactly as slow or as fast as they've always been. The human relationship part where a new team comes in and you're like, I just bought you. How exactly do we get along now? That's not going to get any easier. And if anything, it's going to get... There's a lot of CEOs I know who are thinking, it'd be a great time to sell my company. Not because I want to sell my company, but because there's so much opportunity in this AI-enabled world. I want to start another one. I want to start something new. That's actually a terrible thing for the inquirer.

2:17:15Yeah, that's bad. Another one thing you want is that the typical value of the asset is the team. The team is like, I'm just trying to dump this thing. And I'm not sure I want it. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us. Good luck with the search for the ultimate espresso machine. Let us know what you decide. We'll announce it. You should have the Max's list, the top-rated different machines. Anyways, great to catch up. I'll leave you with that. I own two identical Linea Minis. Okay. Just because one breaks. Yes. This is commitment. This is serious. I like that. That's peak performance.

2:17:51I'm really insane when it comes to software. Well, thank you so much for taking the time. We'll talk to you soon. Have a great weekend. Cheers. Goodbye. Let me tell you about 11 Labs. Build intelligent, real-time conversational agents. Reimagine human technology interaction with 11 labs. And we know there was some roughness on the audio there. That is why we're making the TVP and the pit lane headset. Yes. We're not going to send mics to people. We are going to send people headsets with a boom mic. It's going to look like you're in the paddock. It's going to look like you're... Not in the paddock.

2:18:23No? In the pit lane. In the pit lane. Yeah, in the pit lane. Sorry. Well, without further ado, I guess we don't have our guests yet. Let me tell you about Cognition. They're the makers of Devin, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. And I was looking at Jordan Schneider. And crushing it in the enterprise. Crushing it in the enterprise, yes. Great. The company's doing fantastically. But Jordan Schneider did an interesting side-by-side of Devin versus Claude Code building an RTS, a real-time strategy game, and said congrats to Scott Wu and Russell Kaplan on the decisive win.

2:18:59and he's vibe coding games, which I'm excited for these to release. I feel like things are happening so fast and yet I want to play Sholto's game. I want to play more vibe coded games. All of those Instagram real ads that show you the fake games that are all clickbait to get you to buy some game that's ultimately Candy Crush. I want the actual game that looks fun where you're fighting the zombies or something. Okay, some quick context before TJ joins. So he's coming on to talk to us about Trump Rx, which launched, I believe, yesterday. And then also this new Wagovi GLP-1 pill that was launched and then immediately cloned by HIMSS and HERS.

2:19:42Novo Nordisk put out a press release on the illegal mass compounding and deceptive advertising by HIMSS and HERS. QCAP said Novo is basically calling HIMSS a corner store drug dealer. Does Novo not believe that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery? No, they think it's disgusting. Interesting. Okay. Well, we'll have to - Novo Nordisk issued the following statement - Yes. Regarding the announcement by HIMSS and HERS that they will unlawfully mass market an unapproved, inauthentic, and untested knockoff somaglutide pill. The action by HIMSS and HERS is illegal mass compounding that poses a significant risk to patient safety.

2:20:15Those are harsh words. Novo Nordisk will take legal and regulatory action to protect patients, RIP, and the integrity of the U.S. Gold Standard Drug Approval Framework. And Dr. Marty Makari, the commissioner of the FDA, said the FDA will take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products. The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety, or effectiveness of non-approved drugs. Marty has a great book, by the way. You should read it if you want to know more about the FDA strategy. It's a very fascinating. Contrarian take on healthcare, he identifies a bunch of interesting places where, for some psychological reason or some sort of structural reason, scientists that had discovered some truth about healthcare or medicine were unable to sort of propagate their finding.

2:21:11And he identifies a number of these sort of bizarre scenarios. So we'll dig into it quickly. Let me tell you about Sentry. Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast. That's why 150 ,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working. And without further ado, let's bring in TJ Parker. TBP Healthcare Czar. To the TBP on Ultradone. Welcome to the show. How are you doing? I am great. How are you? I'm good. Complicated day in the news. Where should we start first? What story? Air-cooled Porsches. Air-cooled Porsches. Are they still cool in the age of AI or am I going to be able to vibe code one?

2:21:47I think they're going to be cooler in the HBI. There we go. I like it. Tracking. Yeah. What about in healthcare? Yeah, big week. Want to talk about, let's just jump straight into the Wagovi, Novo Nordis, HIMSS drama. What's been your reaction? How have you been tracking the story up until this week? All that good stuff. Yeah, I think maybe to jump back to how we got here, and I think folks are probably pretty familiar with this, but the hems of the world were obviously compounding the injectable for quite a long time. But the origination of that was that those injectables were in short order. They were on back order.

2:22:29And so they were allowed to compound them as a stopgap for the manufacturers to get sufficient supply. And that was basically real in the early, early phases of this, right? And important because if someone's overweight and they want to lose weight quickly, being overweight is unhealthy. not good for your lifespan. And so that's why the FDA is set up in that way. But the question is like, how long does that go on? Basically, HIMSS got addicted to compounding. Yeah, and that was maybe, call it 18 months ago or so, where that was kind of, that peaked. And then the FDA did issue a warning letter to HIMSS back in the fall when the shortage ended telling them to stop mass compounding.

2:23:10So they have commented on this before, but their level of enforcement has been lacking. I think the stark difference with what happened yesterday is that the Wagovi pill has a specific technology called SNAC that they actually paid$2 billion for the IP specifically for that technology to allow for you to be able to actually absorb the peptide and have the drug be effective. And HIMSS explicitly stated that they didn't use that technology. Instead, they're using liposomal absorption, which maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, but there's certainly no proof. Well, then it's just like insane. You're insane.

2:23:47You're selling a drug that you claim works that has no approval testing, right? There's zero studies, zero approvals. So this is where it's super different from the injectables where they weren't changing the formulation, right? It was very similar to the branded drug. We can talk about the challenges of IP and a bunch of things, but it's different in the sense that here there's no evidence that this drug works at all. And so the most likely scenario is they're selling a$50 drug that doesn't work, that still has a bunch of side effects because it still has the drug that just doesn't get absorbed through your GI.

2:24:23So it's very different. It's not an IP issue. It's really an efficacy and safety issue, which is why I think you saw the FDA come out much faster in a much more explicit way pretty immediately after the launch yesterday. Why would HIMSS do something that seems completely nonsensical and bad for patients? I have a quote here from them. Compounding is a safe, legal, and long-recognized practice within the American healthcare system. So that's their stance. Okay, but ignoring the fact that they're inventing a new delivery mechanism via liposomal and are selling it as a product claiming... that's why they're getting pushback yeah yeah i mean i think the situation is you have a five billion dollar market cap company where half of their revenue is these compounded glp ones where that market is quickly contracting on them they're doing a bunch of buybacks they've invested a ton in incremental capex it's like a recipe for disaster if that revenue starts to fall away and it feels they think the pill the pill is just gonna do that is the expectation that the pill is going to effectively eat the injectable market?

2:25:35Because a lot of people would rather take a pill than have to do an injection, even if it's once a week. Yeah, I think if you look at the archetype of who I believe to be the HIMSS customer, they're buying the injectable because it was the cheapest place to get it. Now you have a branded drug that's half the price of their injectable. I think it's partially the route of administration. I think partially that it's just half the price. And so it's hard to imagine that they're not going to have a significant issue with churn and people switching from the injectable partially yeah because of the the ease of use but also just literally half the price which was their entire value prop prior to the pill launch is not expecting are they able to mass produce this already like are they yeah they have no shortage issues they've been ramping up production for quite some time yeah um i think they were quite prepared for the launch and so you have none of the shortage dynamics and frankly like pills are exponentially easier to manufacture than their injectable pens specifically, which is where the shortages came from.

2:26:33So there's no similar rationale. I think it's also comparatively reasonable that you don't want to force a bunch of patients off the injectable product. So there's a reasonable safety argument that that has to be a very thoughtful and calculated wind down. I think they're onboarding new customers, so that doesn't totally hold water compared to the behavior. But in this instance, it feels more like a financial hail mary given, I think, what the market dynamics are going to do to them over the next 12 months. What about the alternative scenario or playbook? Like I remember HIMSS as being sort of like a front end to drugs that they didn't compound and it was a place to get hair loss medication and sort of name brand drugs that I felt like just it was online pharmacy.

2:27:20Like why doesn't that model work in the age of peptides and GLP-1s. Why can't you just be the digital doctor that prescribes, then you go pick it up at your local pharmacy? A couple of reasons. And I think if you look at their competitive set, the biggest one being Rho, obviously, that's how they've managed through this, right? They have not remained reliant on compounded drugs as the shortage has gone away. They've ramped up their access points to branded therapies. That's exactly what they're doing and executing. I think when you're in the position of HIMSS, it's hard to not get addicted to a$250 product with 90 % gross margins when if you're selling access to the branded drug at most, you're going to make $10 to$15 on a$150 product.

2:28:04And so I think they, to some degree, don't realize the business they're in. Like in a traditional retailer and distribution business, which is really the business that they're in, they're not a manufacturer. That's a scale, low margin business where price, convenience, like all the things that make Amazon successful make you successful, they have sort of morphed into a manufacturing business without any of the IP, any of the R &D costs, like any of the things that come along with being a manufacturer. And I think it's an addicting place to be because the margins are quite a bit better than being a retailer.

2:28:38Yeah. Can you explain more about this, the warning letter that the FDA shared address to HIMS and Her Health, September 9th, 2025, you can find this on FDA.gov. They're saying, it says, the FDA has observed that your website offers various compounded drugs, including semaglutide, as described alone, that your claims are concerning your compounded semaglutide products are false or misleading. How would a company normally respond to a a warning letter from the FDA. It's not fully shut down. It's not a lawsuit. It's more of a corrective by the FDA. Is that correct? Yeah. I think historically in combating specifically, the FDA has lacked material enforcement.

2:29:28And so in many ways, I think what you're seeing here is that there is a skepticism that they'll actually enforce. And so So it's business as usual. Don't take the warning letter seriously. I think with that overlay, I think the reason the FDA still sends letters like that is if they do have a material safety issue, which is what has happened with compounding in the past. You had 60 people die of meningitis in 2012 from a compounding pharmacy doing scale compounding. They have a paper trail of telling them that you are out of compliance. And so I think this will probably be a different situation.

2:30:03I think one important point is the FDA does not enforce IP. So they're not going to get involved in actual quote unquote IP theft. That's for the courts. Got it. But they do enforce safety and efficacy, which is why I think they address this so much faster because they believe it's an efficacy issue, not solely an IP infringement issue, which would again be left to the courts. Yeah. What about Walmart? Are they a potential way out of this? You need scale. I don't know how advanced they are, but you have experience with Amazon. Walmart just hit a trillion dollar market cap. It seems like the business is doing well.

2:30:39They were not disrupted. They need more technology. Is there something where a partnership could allow HIMSS to sort of go get out of the compounding business and go more to the scaled low margin business but still be growing? yeah it it feels like just given the reputation that that would be hard to imagine happening i think they have built obviously a lot of compelling customer experiences they built really good tech um but i think just given the overhang from these regulatory challenges it's hard to imagine a large acquirer is going to get comfortable with that um kind of retrospective and presumably ongoing liability yeah uh switching gears trump rx what uh what's what's up with that Yeah, I feel like I should take a victory lap here.

2:31:27I think the first time I was on here was to talk about the executive order for Trump Rx. And I think my point at that moment in time was that the real thrust of that EO, which was not super clear then, but is how I interpreted it, is that it was an effort to eliminate this discrepancy between super high list prices and the net prices that insurers and PBMs actually pay, right? So for these GLP-1s, they have these$1 ,000 or$1 ,200 list prices, but in reality, if you're a PBM, you're paying$200,$300. And that's exactly what you saw here, where there's a number of branded drugs, which before, if you were a consumer paying out of pocket, you had to pay that high list price.

2:32:10They've gotten the manufacturers to come to the table and offer a consumer-directed net price. So really, if you are paying out of pocket for a bunch of these drugs, you're saving 60, 70 percent compared to what was available to you a year ago. Now, some of that could just be the GLP-1 market forces, but that wouldn't have touched a number of the products that have moved on to TrumpRx. I think given the selection, it's maybe like 25 actual brands that haven't gone generic that have low net prices that are on there right now. It's not the most exciting thing in the world, but I do think you're going to see manufacturers just start to launch new products at net.

2:32:46and that will completely unwind the value of the current supply chain, middlemen, PBMs, all those things. So I think it's net good, but I think it's like the early days of what could materially change how these things go to market and the pricing that's associated with that. So it's not just good marketing for the midterms? No, I think it is good marketing. I think everyone has quoted these ridiculous list prices as the actual price. It's been like a pet peeve of mine forever. and they are now quoting much lower kind of list prices. So I think that is going to be perceived as a win for the midterms.

2:33:24But the drugs aren't actually cheaper than like a payer would have paid a year ago, but they are cheaper than a consumer could have gotten access to a year ago. So I think it's net good and I think hopefully a trend that will accelerate and change the pricing dynamics more dramatically. Did I ask about AI doctors? That's what I was going to ask about, John. Amazing. Read my mind. I'm thinking the same thing. We've talked to a couple companies that have come on and talked about consumer-level AI doctor. Doctor in your pocket. You know, you've got a mole. You take a picture of it. It tells you what it, you know, you say, I feel sick.

2:33:55It'll tell you to go get some blood work done or something. Some of them have partnered with certain states to get real doctors involved. There's a whole bunch of different models. At the same time, they're facing pressure from OpenAI. And, you know, they're launching a health product. How do you think that market plays out? what are you optimistic about how how much can actually improve american health care there's always a lot of talk about like if you just talked you know primary care doctor was available more frequently we'd be way healthier and i don't know that there's that many people that are like well i never thought to google i should sleep diet and exercise so now that i can chat gpt and i'm i'm healthy uh but walk me through your whole philosophy on like ai chatbots in consumer health care?

2:34:40Yeah. I mean, I think first of all, it's obviously goodness, right? I think people are really going to GPTs to get advice on their health. And I think it's something like seven or 8 % of chat GPTs volume is health related health specific. So clearly that's net good. I think in many ways it replaces people going to Google to do the same thing. It's much more efficient. It's definitely more effective. So that's all good. I think the, my thesis on the end state of that and where it really unlocks a bunch of value is when it is fully aware of all your medical history. And so that's pretty critical.

2:35:15And ChatGPT has launched a version of that, though it's pretty light on the actual data integration. And then more specifically... They acquired some company, I think, to help with that, wasn't it? There was a company, it wasn't called... It was a company that was like trying to... Yeah, Torch. What was the name of the company they had before? It was not Future. Forward Health, yeah. So clearly they're thinking about all this stuff. Yeah, there's a fundamental regulatory framework where if you're a provider, you can access a much broader set of data to deliver care to the consumer. If you're a technology company, they're accessing via this thing called Tefka, where very few providers are contributing data to that.

2:35:59And so there's a lot of nuance to this, but the punchline is that if you are purely a technology company, your access to the breadth of data necessary to be useful is much more limited. So you basically need to be a provider that employs actual medical doctors. You need to be a provider actually providing care to that customer. Yeah, and so we had one of these companies, Lotus, on the other day. And if he's in an investor pitch and people are like, hey, like AI doctor is cool, but Chachibutti is doing this. Claude is doing this. There's other companies that are – or Claude might do something like this.

2:36:38There's other companies that are – it's super competitive space. They're saying, okay, but OpenAI is not going to have doctors on staff and is not going to actually be licensed and able to actually deliver. Yeah, it doesn't prohibit them from doing interesting things with partners or VMCP or some other approach that can mimic some of the things that we built at General Medicine and some other folks are building. But in and of themselves, whether it's Claude or ChatGPT or Apple Health, any of these guys, their ability to provide similar levels of care is just going to be constrained. I also think that probably the more salient point is I think where this becomes really magic is where all of these conversations get actually distilled to your provider before your appointment.

2:37:20So instead of having to repeat all the things you've already said and go back through your medical history, you sort of show up to the appointment. Your provider's been prepped based on everything you've already chatted about and can actually start to deal with what they might want to do in that appointment. So that's where we've seen it be the most interesting and useful. And I'm sure other folks will end up in a similar spot. But I think like the combination of GPT all the way through to the visit, informing the visit and then informing the care is super powerful. What's the textbook example of like medical history being valuable?

2:37:51Because maybe I'm just like in a weird spot, but I usually just say like, no, I haven't done anything. But like, I don't know, like if you, like, I don't know, I actually haven't broken any bones. But assuming like I was like, I broke my arm when I was five. Like, does that really like increase cancer risk? Like how are these things actually flowing through? Like what's the textbook? I think the average American is on prescription medication. Okay. So they show up and they're like, oh, you're already on this medication. Why did you go on that? Yeah. I mean, I'll give you like a tangible example that like Elliot experienced in our GPT, which is he's been having this plantar fasciitis issue on one foot.

2:38:27And I hope he doesn't mind that I'm sharing his PHI. And the GPT was able to. I think we talked about this in the show actually. Yeah, the GPT was able to decipher that at the same thing on the other foot in 2006 or something, from 20 years ago, which is where he didn't even remember having the issue. It was not relevant to him. And I think there's more substantive examples where you might have had a series of lab tests over the last five years. Any one of them is not problematic, but the trends that are being exposed when you can see that trend is pretty compelling. there's also just like you can recommend all sorts of screenings based on when you've actually done those screenings and what has and hasn't been done that kind of thing that makes no sense Jordy anything else is it dangerous that OpenAI hooked a bio lab up to oh yeah what was your reaction there we're going to have the founder of Ginkgo who they partnered with on the AI bio lab but what are your thoughts do you want to vibe code some some uh some drugs some studies seems like a fun experiment yeah you know what could possibly go wrong we'll clip it when it happens when the world ends the one final clip we're like tj called it tj called it anyway doomer yeah there will be victory laps if the apocalypse happens for sure Last question.

2:39:53How have you been processing all the EV manufacturers having to basically take these massive, or sorry, just car manufacturers in general taking these massive hits? It was Stellantis is down something like 20 % after the company announced it's taking a$26 billion hit and writing down their electric vehicle business. Did you predict this as well? you know i'm i'm still loving my raptor r which gets about 11 miles per gallon so i think you know how i feel about the situation yeah that's great i'm trying to get geordie to get one you're buying your you're buying your carbon you're buying your carbon offsets though right yeah of course yeah yeah for sure yeah for sure thank you awesome well thank you so much for coming on the great uh great to catch up great to catch up i'm sure there'll be a lot more here so we'll have you back soon pleasure as always have a good weekend let me tell you about crowd CrowdStrike, your business is AI, their business is securing it.

2:40:48CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. And without further ado, we're going over to the co-founder and SVP of field engineering from Databricks, Arsalan. Welcome to the show. How are you doing? What's happening? Hey, guys. Thanks for having me. Good to see you. Great to meet. First time on the show, I believe. Please introduce yourself. Tell us what you do. This is when we say first time tuning in, long time watcher or lurker or something like that. I appreciate it. We enjoy talking to your co-founder. Awesome. Well, yeah, guys. Arsalan Tavikoli, one of the co-founders here at Databricks. Yeah.

2:41:25Run what's known as field engineering. So think about anything technical, not in core R &D. So it's about a third of the company, roughly, give or take. And then before that, like all the other founders came out of Berkeley. And as my advisor likes to say, I joined the dark side in between. I went to a consulting company McKinsey spent about 4 years there before we started about 12 years you know we love to hear that put in your time we were on a flight the other day and John and I were asking this guy to switch seats with us some people are surprised but even after 3 hours of recording we still want to keep talking and the guy had a UBS shirt on and John was like do you work at UBS?

2:42:10And he's like, yeah. And John goes, thank you for your service. And the guy just started laughing. Thank you for your service at McKinsey. You got to thank your bankers, your Swiss bankers specifically. I want your reaction to this Tyler Cowen post. Today will go down as some kind of turning point, somewhat arbitrarily, but it's okay if journalists and historians have to present things in that manner. He posted this at 11 a.m. on February 5th. That, of course, was the day that both Codex 5.3 and Opus 4.6 launched. It feels like he's talking about software engineering, automated software engineering, AI agents, sort of everything coming to a head.

2:42:49How have you been processing this week? Does it feel like there's a turning point? This is all part of some smooth curve. What's been your view on the ground? Look, I think I've lost track now. Based on those definitions, I think we've had like 3 ,000 watershed moments in the past year that everybody said is like the turn of time. Yeah, more than one a day. Way more than one a day. That's why we have three hours of content every day. It works perfectly for us. I feel like every day I tune into X and somebody's like, this is the day. This is it. The singularity is here. It's over. We're back. I mean, I think it's more of a smoother curve, right, as we go through.

2:43:25And clearly every day I think it's a combination of the technologies getting better. But I think a lot of it right now, what holds people back, what they can do is less the technology, but it's more people learning how to use it, how to deploy it, all the things around it to put value. That's going to be the long tail. I think we're not even close to harnessing the technology that we have today, much less saying, hey, it got a little bit better. Now everything's going to change, at least from what we're seeing. Yeah. So talk about your forward deployed engineers, whatever you call them, like implementation, how you like to work with companies.

2:43:55And then I want to compare and understand what it might look like at the labs as they sort of dip their toe into the FDE model. Yeah, look, I think so. I think that there's two things. A lot of places when they talk about forward deployed engineers. So this is the cool term right now, I guess, is this concept that says go to ask people what is it that you want? What's the outcome that you want to drive? You want to do, you know, revenue forecast optimization. You want to do demand forecasting and then I'll build something for you. The problem is many of the organizations just candidly to talk about that are kind of like, okay, I'll build something custom for you.

2:44:32I'll get it fast. But then the hard part is, is that scalable? Is it open? How does that work? So Databricks is probably a little bit different than the rest of them because we've got an actual platform and product that's used by over 20 ,000 people. But I think right now when you look at it in the AI world, what works for us at least is we go in and some organizations right now are saying, help me with a specific problem. I'm like, I want to do, you know, let me get my data in order, which is important for AI, or let me kind of do a migration or let me set this up. And then we have the same set of somebody says, come help me like transform like Fox.

2:45:05If you know Fox, Cletus, the sports app that they have that you can ask questions like that one, they were like, come build something. Paul at Fox is a good buddy. I don't know. So he's like, come build it soup to nuts for that. And that was one that we did everything end to end and deliver something that works that they want. So we span the gamut from helping you work with products to kind of actually delivering outcomes. We do both. Okay. And then best practices, pretend I'm a CEO of AI Lab who will remain on a nameless, and I'm trying to hire 700, a couple thousand consulting type for deployed sales engineering roles.

2:45:42What are best practices? How fast can you actually spin someone up to become an effective for deployed engineer? what are the pitfalls? Yeah, lots of questions embedded in there. So look, I think first and foremost, what you're looking for today for people is they need to do two things. One, they actually have to be able to build hands-on. I think you end up in the solution engineer space getting a lot of what I call like the slideware demos. Like, hey, I'm a walking dictionary. I can tell you about things. I can build a deck. It just doesn't really cut it anymore. So one, there's much more that what people say is come show me, rapidly prototype.

2:46:21So they have to be able to build and they have to be able to use AI tools to build. Otherwise they're going to be slow. The second thing is you can't just go get engineers. They have to be able to talk to customers because like the most important thing is if I go walk to your basically CEO or CIO, I have to be able to say, what's your business problem? Understand why it matters and decompose that into technical pieces. So you need people who have both of those. So you have to screen from it. And it's different than what I would call the traditional solution engineering interviews are. In terms of how fast to get somebody ramped up, look, you're hiring smart people.

2:46:54Generally, to get familiar with all the tools, we'd say three months is fast. Six months is when they're operating at full steam. It doesn't mean that you can't drop them in front of customers in the first couple of weeks. But that's the amount of time that they get set. Like, what are the most common problems? What's the most efficient way? How do I navigate an organization? And you can hire a lot, but absorbing too many people too fast just means you're also going to candidly degrade culture and skill set. Yeah. We were just talking to Doug O 'Loughlin about how he's using cloud code. He's, he's vibe coding all these things.

2:47:28And a lot of what he was describing were sort of like one-off data analyses or a small, smaller projects that could sort of run locally, be compressed, like spreadsheet level, certainly not, you know, big data cross, you know, like Databricks level infrastructure required, but I'm wondering if you see a world where an individual would Vibe code something that's so big and processing so much data that the agent or the individual Vibe coder is actually pulling Databricks off the shelf. Like, do we go to a world like that? I've had ideas for Vibe coding projects that have been like, yeah, sure. I'd love a personal assistant that read the entire internet every day, but that seems like not on the table right now, but are we moving to a future where that's possible?

2:48:19Yeah, so two things. I think one, we are, but second, like I sometimes say from a Databricks perspective, I wish I could walk in, you know, in like Men in Black where they have that button that causes people to forget. Sure, sure, sure, yeah. I think that there is this vision of Databricks of, hey, it's really, really good if you have a bunch of data and stuff like that. But actually like a bunch of our users today, what's really valuable for your use cases, even if you say you want to work for a spreadsheet, you're like, I don't keep that. Who keeps anything on their local laptop anymore, right?

2:48:46It's like, I work in an organization. I just want a place where I can access all the data, big or small, but it's governed. It's high quality. So actually, a lot of the people inside of Databricks use, I mean, called Genie, right? Because you can be asked for it. It's mainly like, can I get a world where I can do exactly what you said? I can quickly buy code what I need. Small amounts of data, but it's governed. I can visualize it. I can iterate on it. So that's the first thing I put. But I think what you start seeing is everything that you start with for like any project, it starts small. Great, I want my data.

2:49:18Then your next thing is, oh, but it would be really cool if I could merge it with this. And it would be really cool if it could do. So as you get it to work, it naturally balloons into something that both leverages more data, is much more computational and much more comprehensive. So you very quickly end up in a world where you've outstripped the can I just do it on my laptop, even for the average user. Yeah. We were talking to Sam Allman yesterday. We were about different bottlenecks and he was saying that data was a bottleneck for a while, at least like a rumored perceived bottleneck. It really hasn't seemed a bottleneck progress in any meaningful way.

2:49:50But I'm wondering if you see, if you look at the growth of the data market or data is the new oil, just is there a boom in the scale or importance of data with the Neolab boom? There's more and more companies that are training different models. It feels like there's both more data being collected than ever, but then also more data being generated than ever. So can you just talk about zooming out? Like, what is the what is the growth of just data look like in the U.S. economy these days? Look, I think the growth of data is significant, right? I mean, there's no question about that. And look, you said data is the new oil.

2:50:28I think, one, you've got to define, you've got to separate out the world of the consumer world, which I think about where many people's familiarity with AI is, right? I want to ask a question, help me understand, you know, is this a cold or an allergy or plan my travel vacation? And that's the, I need the whole corpus of the web. And that people, that amount of data is kind of finite, if that makes sense. And people are generating new ones through AI, but that's one. I think that there's a separate question of why you said most people focus on data in the enterprise world. It usually goes to follow.

2:51:01I need AI. I have to pick a model. Let me pick which model. Is it Opus 4.6? Is it the new basically GPT model? Is it Gemini, etc.? Great. I started. Crap. Now I have to figure out how to deploy this. And that's a lot about security, evaluations, governance. Great. Now I did this and my accuracy is 60%. 60 % is kind of crappy accuracy. How do I get to 100 %? The answer is you need to have much better data. So almost everything comes back to, you know, especially in enterprise, lots of data spread out in a bunch of places. How do you actually get it together, know what you have, make sure it's high quality and relevant and recent?

2:51:38Because that's the other thing that's happening. Data that you have from six months ago may no longer be valid right now. So how do you make, tell the system what's valid, what's recent? That's where we spend a lot of time on. And I think enterprises spend a lot of time on figuring out like, how do we actually make these agents work. And it's a different problem than it is for like general consumer search. Yeah. What is, what's your software buying framework these days? What do you, like, what do you decide, like what, when, when you're evaluating, Hey, we, there's a job to be done or should we, should we go and find a vendor that can do this?

2:52:10Should we do it ourselves? How do you, what's, what's your line? Yeah, look, I know that the cool thing is to say this following, it's like, guys, why would we buy software anymore? Like you can just vibe code everything. I think anybody who says that generally is not in the business of actually using software in production. It's like build is easy. Maintaining and sustaining it is hard. I think the short answer is in a world, if I can, I much rather buy than build. Right. Like that's just the reality of it. The problem though is you have such unique needs right now. And so if I look at it and see that the gap between what I can get off the shelf and what I need is really huge, then I have to look at, do I really want to depend on another vendor for kind of being able to, like, how business critical is it for me?

2:53:00So as an example, much of the things that we're doing to overhaul field engineering at Databricks to say, how do we use AI to accelerate it? There's nothing off the shelf that gives us what we need there, right? If there's a piece, I'll use it as a component, but we have to go build it. Because for me, it's like, I'm iterating really, really fast to figure out what the job to be done is how to deliver it. So we have our own development team, but on other things like my CRM or something like that, that is not something that if I can help it, I'm looking to build internally. Like I'm happy to use something externally.

2:53:28Um, given that I imagine my needs are similar to many other ones and there should be things that could meet that needs pretty quickly. Yeah. How big is, uh, AI agent adoption broadly? I want to know the details of the high 26 state of AI agents and specifically like how much of this is like, yes, they check the box. We're using agents, but it's just a test or it's very narrow or it's the one vibe coding intern that built some fun workflow. That's like, yeah, it's a bot. It replied, it's agentic, but it's not the core business. Talk to me about the rollout and adoption of AI agents and real enterprises, real businesses.

2:54:05Yeah. And I know I'm supposed to give like the party line and the pop of the thing, but look, So I think you can look at that report that you cited talks about something like 95 % of people still have a hard time getting it in production or at least getting value out of it the way that they wanted. I think you have still an element of people who are like beating their chest. You go, like, I have a thousand agents out. And I'm like, okay, how many people use them? And they're like, why does that matter? I was like, why does anything else matter? Right? Yeah, same thing as like bragging, you know, CEO bragging about headcount.

2:54:36It's like, wait, what's your revenue per employee? They're like 30 grand. They're like, okay, maybe you're focusing on the wrong thing. Well, look, so I think that everybody we talk to is trying to use it. And there's some statistics you saw in there that make sense. Most people are no longer doing like, hey, let me get a chat bot. It's like multi-agent orchestration, right? They're using multiple things. Second, nobody is wedded to models anymore. I think like 77 % of our customers use multiple models as well to pull it together. And I think that the most popular use case is, you know, beyond internal use case, something called like market intelligence.

2:55:10So like, how do I figure out what my customers are doing? What's the next best action I should take in the like? I do think it's still early. Like most people, like it's rare to see somebody say, I have a lot of agents in production really effectively. As I mentioned, the most the place where we spend a lot of time on is how do you govern it and get security? How do you get really, really high quality out of it? How do you balance cost and quality? And that's where our whole offering around Agent Bricks is mainly around, how do you actually get this thing in production? And so early days, we're seeing at least people turn from, I spun up a chat GPT interface, I have AI, to what's the ROI I can drive from it and realizing what are the blocking factors, data or some of the things I talked about to get there.

2:55:55Given your experience at McKinsey, There's been some news recently that Anthropics, working with, I believe, Accenture, OpenAI is hiring consultants internally. Obviously, the big consulting firms want to get in on the action. They've been doing a good job making money on generative AI, maybe making more profit than a lot of companies. But when you think about swarms of consultants going out into the world to unlock the power of agents, Like, what are you going to be looking for to see their success? Okay. One, I think we've gone through these iterations before. And in general, I'm hard pressed to believe that every enterprise is going to all of a sudden have an army of their own really effective.

2:56:43effective vibe coders, right, that are going to build everything themselves. I think that there's still going to be the dependence on external parties to help make something real. I do think that there is a element that the SI firms right now are trying to figure out how do they reinvent themselves. A non-trivial number of what it was before was, how do I do some more, let's say, a little bit more of a commoditized task. Sorry, quickly, SI is software integrator? Oh, sorry. System integrator. When you think about the Accenture, the TCS, the Cognizance and the stuff. So it's like, how do I throw a lot of people to do it?

2:57:19I think the expectation from people now is going to be great. I'm going to hire you. But in the element of AI, I expect you to be able to do things faster. And I also expect to be able to get out of more out of each of the individuals. So one, go build applications for me. Two, do it faster. And three, your cost, your economics should be better. So I think that there's going to be a push on doing things like that. But otherwise, we're still going to need worlds of folks. They're also trying to figure out how do they expand their teams with many, many more agents that can work faster. So it's more of a shift in the model and economics, but you will still need consulting organizations to help.

2:57:57Well, thank you so much for taking the time. Jordy, do you have anything else? Great to meet you. Come back on more this year. Really helpful context. yeah, you guys have such insane visibility into how, into the real diffusion. That's awesome. Or we can just wait a week. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Monday is going to change in a week. Watershed moment. Every hour. Every hour of every day. We'll chat with you about it. Have a great rest of your day. Great to meet you. Thanks for coming on. We'll talk to you soon. Let me tell you about LabelBox, RL environments, voice, robotics, evals, and expert human data.

2:58:31LabelBox is the data factory behind the world's leading AI teams. We've got a bunch of breaking news to close the show out with. Breaking news. Hobbit-inspired startup becomes first new bank green-lighted by Trump 2.0. One of the most insane headlines. That one is for Trevor Palmer and the whole team. Erebor founder Palmer Luckey was one of the tech industry's early Trump supporters, and he's known for pension for Hawaii insurers. They're really focusing on Palmer's non-banking relationships here. Palmer is a banker now, everyone. Erebor will cater to startups and high net worth individuals on Friday.

2:59:11It became the first newly created bank to receive a national charter under the second Trump administration. Launching with$635 million in capital, it says it will occupy a hole in the market left by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The bank is the brainchild of Palmer. Lucky, one of the tech industry's earliest supporters, Donald Trump. Its funders include Lux Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, 8VC, Elad Gill, and Founders Fund. It's lined up a handful of potential defense and industrial tech-focused clients, including ones with Ty Sutil and other investors who say they are eager to do business with a bank that understands their needs.

2:59:46You can think of us like a farmer's bank for tech, said Lucky, who will serve on Erebor's board but will not have an operating role. I think most farmers' banks won't claim they're the best bankers in the world, but they do understand farmers. Chris Powers in here. He said, is a local bank going to lend against you? No, he said. If you have less than$10 million in revenue and you're struggling to secure a loan from a traditional bank, investor expectations are high. Erebor was valued at about$2 billion in a funding round last year, over seven times its book value, according to investor Pitch Deck, a subsequent round valued Airborne at$4 billion.

3:00:27So off to the races. The timeline, the pace from the team getting this done, obviously there's, you know, the regulatory side, but there's actually the execution to get here. I remember talking to Trevor last year, Trevor over at Airborne, and he was telling me the timeline, and I was like, yeah, that sounds great. Like, let's see how it actually turns out. And that, incredible pace. We'll have to have Palmer on the show to talk more about it. Real bank or real businesses. We have another gong hit for Jennifer Garner's Once Upon a Farm. IPO'd today. Shares popped 17 % in public market debut. It's on the New York Stock Exchange, baby.

3:01:10There we go. Interesting. I wonder how they priced it. Yes. So they raised almost$200 million, $197.9 at a valuation of$724 million. And the company's IPO comes as shoppers and policymakers alike have pushed back on ultra-processed foods, particularly when consumed by children. So it's on the New York Stock Exchange now under the ticker OFRM. Cavu Venture Partners, Consumer Partners, Cavu Consumer Partners, was a big backer of this company and probably has done quite well in this IPO. And also, TechnoChief had a little bit of an update here. Super random, but Kavu Consumer Partners just raised a new$325 million fund for better.

3:01:58Good timing. Hit it again. So congratulations.

3:02:04Rohano's over there. He's been investing in the category that worked in vitamin water. He's an absolute dog and an industry legend. And we're happy to see success in this industry. Certainly AI resistant. It feels like something Tyler won't get out of bed for. He's knocking it, but certainly opportunity. No, I mean, in a post-scarcity world, every child in the world could be enjoying once a farmer. So a fun day at the New York Stock Exchange for everyone. Do we have anything else? Not too much. There's a bunch of stuff. I think we went through most of this stuff. There's new data from Ramp. R.

3:02:47Karazi shares the fastest growing companies on Ramp. Infrastructure means open source is likely ticking up. AI dev tools are not going away. And AEO is the future of marketing. He calls that try profound. So Ramp's top software vendors, the fastest growing. We're in Thropic, lovable, Cursor, 11 Labs, Superbase, Replit. Interesting. Cursor has been seeing like some, there's a bunch of FUD on the timeline. People are saying, I don't need it anymore, but it's still growing according to Ramp. A little bit of a narrative violation there. And then trending breakout growth relative to size. Paper for software design.

3:03:21Cerebrus for AI infrastructure. Juicebox for recruiting AI. Runware for AI infrastructure. Clarify for AI infrastructure. Novita AI for AI infrastructure. Crusoe for AI infrastructure. Modal for AI infrastructure. And then Peak AI for SEO and AEO intelligence and also Profound. So this is from the Ramp Economics Lab. Ramp.com slash data. You can go check it out for yourself. We love chatting with Ara about what he's seeing. Well, it was a brutal week for tech. It was. But at least we had an opportunity to put on the white suits. Yes. And I can't wait for Sunday to see the ads. Yes. It's going to be a great one.

3:04:01The Super Bowl is on Sunday. John and I will be there with Ramp and some other friends. And we will be glued to our phones in the back of the box. of the box, just, just watching the ads. Yes. We hope you guys plant the bomb in other news. After 12 years of the wall street journal, Joanna Stern is launching her own consumer tech media company. Congratulations to join us. And she hasn't shared exactly what it is yet. But there is a link. You can go sign up. This is my next thing.com. Good name. I like it. She has been writing for the wall street journal for quite a long time. I've always enjoyed her consumer tech coverage.

3:04:42And of course, we'll have her on the show when she launches. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Sign up for our newsletter at tbpn.com. We love you. Goodbye. Nice work, brothers. I'll see you on the next one.