Diet TBPN: November 3, 2025

0:00The timeline has been in turmoil over the Brad Gerstner podcast with Satya Nadella and Sam Altman. The AI build-out is so big, even a haunted house owner wants in. The co-owner of Pennsylvania's Pennhurst Asylum has big plans for a data center. He's like, we got to get through Halloween, and then I'm all in on AI. Halloween is... We got to get through spooky season. I mean, that's basically what's happening. And then I'm going all in. You ever been to a spirit Halloween at like 6 p.m. on Halloween? No. Is it packed? It's an absolute nightmare. Oh, it's probably crazy because people get glassed in.

0:32Because they just let it get destroyed, basically. Like the employees are just like, all right, it's basically over. It's over. We're just going to pack up and leave tomorrow. It looks like a stampede of horses just running through it. Apparently, haunted houses are converting into data centers. There are a number of Hollywood sound stages, studios that have been set up in Atlanta, I think she said. Georgia. And they're not monetizing well as studios. And so they're converting them into data centers. Trump hailed more than$92 billion in AI and energy deals from the likes of Blackstone and Brookfield during a visit to Pennsylvania this year.

1:08Many say there's too much money flooding in. The big value play is getting this ready for a hyperscaler to go vertical in less than a year. I've seen enough. He should SPAC based on his Halloween revenue. For sure. And then use that capital to go all in. The timeline's going pretty crazy on the BG squared. He had Satya Nadella and Sam Altman on the show. And everyone is debating whether or not a$14 billion revenue company, OpenAI, can afford to pay$1.4 trillion. And Brad asked this question directly. It's kind of a crazy moment because a lot of people were saying, like, well, he's an investor.

1:43This should be, like, the softest ball interview possible. A lot of journalists were like, how is this happening? Like, how is it that Sam Altman's like getting, it's like a harder interview with a direct investor than with a traditional media journalist? I don't think Brad meant for it to be a tough question. The whole interview was a layup. Yeah. Brad is, like you said, he's heavily aligned with OpenAI. This wasn't meant to be a gotcha. Sam just might have woken up in a bad mood that day because the answer that he gave was absolutely horrible. I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares.

2:17I don't think you would want to sell that. Including myself. who talk with a lot of like breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever that would be thrilled to buy shares so i think we we could sell you know your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on twitter whatever about this very quickly we do plan for revenue to grow steeply yeah the step back is growing steeply we are taking a forward that it's going to continue to go so pause pause for a second i was just listening to the audio and i was like oh like that's like a totally reasonable answer but when you watch the video and you see the body language and you get into all that i feel like issue is a whole extra layer sam got pressed he went see you don't you don't hear that on the audio you don't hear that on the audio and so you see what i'm saying how like you can win in one medium but lose in another anytime i don't like something you're saying john i'm just gonna go well the well the audio listeners won't know yeah won't know and the timeline was also fixating on this fact that at some point, Brad takes a step back from the microphone.

3:18They were reading into that. Like, that's something that just doesn't come across in audio. And so you hear it and you're just like, okay, yeah, this actually sounds like pretty reasonable. And Satya, Satya's just sitting back laughing. Yeah, yeah, exactly. It was like, it was the one of the most strange. I was actually surprised that, that they released it. I think it's good that it was released because this is the question that is on everyone's mind. Yes. He says, how will you afford 1.4 trillion in spending with only 12 billion of revenue? And Sam was like, actually, we have more revenue than that.

3:50Of course, they lost 10 or so billion dollars last quarter. Sam's answer was basically, sell your shares. We're automating science and we're going to release a hardware device and we're going to need a lot of compute for that. I can't think of a more poor answer when people deserve to have, I think, a bit more clarity around it. Sam is smart enough to not sign up for$1.4 trillion of liabilities. There is a world where he can thread the needle and spend all this money that he's sort of soft committing, but everything has to go perfectly. Agenda commerce has to be massive. Ads need to be massive.

4:29Subscriptions need to keep growing at the same rate. And so a lot of things need to go right. And it was just a really weak answer. The only person that I saw defending the answer and the whole interaction was Brad. Okay. So Sam said that the revenue was incorrect. It's not 14 billion. It's higher. It's worth noting that the losses are dramatically greater than the revenue. Yeah. But that doesn't matter for the, for the deals because you pay the, you pay the deals from the revenue. So many different businesses where their market caps are riding on their partnership with you. And you're just saying like, yeah, we're going to just hit a grand slam with a new consumer hardware device.

5:06And every other attempt at it so far has not managed to make anything even really that useful. If OpenAI doesn't accelerate to a trillion dollars in revenue or quadrillion dollars in revenue, and all of a sudden there's a whole bunch of folks who are like, wait a minute, like, how are you going to pay us for our cloud stuff? And they're able to say, okay, well, let's actually wind this back or let's stretch this contract out. This five-year contract, let's make it a 10-year contract. Like if all of that can happen smoothly and efficiently with just the stroke of a pen, like it's not that big of a deal.

5:41It can win it back. Except if you're Oracle and you spend tens of billions of dollars building infrastructure that you ultimately can't monetize in the way that you thought you were going to monetize. And if you have debt too. And they have massive debt. And so the reason I'm wearing the tinfoil hat is I would like to propose the glut theory, which is that I believe there's a chance that Sam actually wants to create a massive overbuild so he can ultimately. He predicted a glut. Because he controls the demand. He said glut on the show. He's glut-pilled. He's glut-pilled. It doesn't seem like they have a lot of debt.

6:15It doesn't seem like. We don't know. That's the thing is that we don't know how these contracts are written. There could be an easy mutual out. It could just be like, these contracts can be revocable for convenience. If you don't pay your AWS bill, OpenAI, there's$37 billion. If you don't pay it, we own the company. You go into receivership. You go bankrupt. They're wildly different contracts, and we don't know. OpenAI, I believe, will be a massive beneficiary of a glut and an overbuild. Sam is entirely right. He's actually smart to say, let's focus on demand for the stock. If you want to get out, I'll help you get out.

6:48are you going to nuke my portfolio and I'm going to be fine on your deal, but the rest of my portfolio is getting cooked. You could have done a few of these press releases and there wouldn't have been as many questions. Opening Eyes Revenue Ramp is insane. They have the biggest consumer product in the last 10 years. When you announce a$100 billion deal, a$200 billion deal, another$100 billion, a$50 billion deal, and then less than 72 hours after this interview releases, There's another$38 billion deal announced. Now is an appropriate time, I think, for people to just press them harder on this.

7:26The joke of like OpenAI is holding up the stock market is incredibly real right now. I mean, I don't know what more people want, though. Like, we've been growing 3X every year. We project that we're going to continue to grow 3X. The quadrillion number is a joke, but clearly they back out the envelope to being a hyperscaler. So say that. Don't say we're automating science. Sell your shares. Elon does very similar things, right? Yeah, totally. We're going to go to Mars, and we're going to have a flying car, and we're going to have trucking. We're going to do data centers in space. Elon is probably 10 to 50 times more likable than Sam.

8:02In general, Elon is more likable, and so people give him the benefit of the doubt. Longer track record of delivering on, you know, there's a thing of like Elon, you know, gets the timing wrong, but he delivers. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. it's just going to be boring. I just think that we're going to cure cancer. Answer, we're automating science. Answer isn't good enough anymore at this scale when there's this many trillions of dollars on the line. Hey, man, how are you going to pay for the$1.4 trillion of spend you promised? Proceeds to crash out. People are reading too much into Sam being feisty.

8:38I love that about him and our founders. We laughed about it afterwards. Again, the question is for people that are not invested in OpenAI but invested in all the companies that they're partnered with. Sure. Got to give it to Altman, very forward thinker, itching to go public for the sole purpose of crushing the hypothetical short sellers that don't exist yet. Can't wait for the S-1. I love that. So Sam breaks people's brains just like Elon. There's a thin line between grifter and visionary and creating true believers to harvest their capital requires rhetoric that makes non-believers recoil. Elon hates Sam not just because he stole his company, but he stole his whole playbook.

9:12Is Elon Barnum and Bailey the circus man or is he Thomas Edison or Nikola Tesla? Well, he's both. Not only can he lead engineers to invent the thing and build the thing, but then he can also promote it. And he can promote it really, really well. He's both the grifter and the visionary. He's both the real deal and the fake guru. And when you put those together, it's really, really powerful. Sam seems to be doing something similar. In the build-out of Tesla, in the build-out of SpaceX, there was never a moment where it was like, if Elon goes bust, everything is dead. Speaking generally. It's a timeline assessment.

9:49Elon is more likable than Sam. He has also made tens of thousands of retail investors so much money for believing in him. And so Sam doesn't have the benefit of having, like, there's no retail army defending Sam. He says one of the reasons he would want an IPO is so that he could basically bring not just venture capitalists, but the entire economy with him. Yes, yes. So he wants the retail army. Elon says, you stole a nonprofit. Sam Altman says, I helped turn the thing you left for dead into what should be the largest nonprofit ever. 911, I'd like to report a murder. And it's Sam basically giving shit to Tesla and not being able to do a refund.

10:29And so the follow-up to you stole a nonprofit and you forgot to mention Act 4, where this issue was fixed and you received a refund within 24 hours, but that is in your nature. So, again. Elon refunded him. Refund confirmed. Hard because this is the most dentist-coded car I've ever seen in my life, a white Turbo S. Pulling the top down while you're driving, though. That's pretty sick. So, I mean, I really dislike cabriolets in general. If this is the car that getting a dentist gets you, I think it's become a dentist. No shade to dentists, but this is a great car. If you're buying a sports car to drive to work at your dentist's office, this is a great option.

11:13Probably the greatest car in history all around. But it's not what customers want, and it's unfortunate. Speaking of cars, Elon Musk teased on the Joe Rogan experience that the Tesla Roadster will be a flying car. He danced around it. He didn't say that exactly. Are you still doing the Roadster? Let's go. Yes. Let's do it. Eventually? Eventually. We're getting close to demonstrating the prototype. It's been seven years. And I think this will be. Look at that. Is that a real demo? One thing I can guarantee is that this product demo will be unforgettable. I love it. Unforgettable. How so? Whether it's good or bad.

12:00Whether it's good or bad. It would be unforgettable. Well, you know, my friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don't have flying cars. That's amazing. So you're going to be able to fly? Well, I mean, Joe's face.

12:19I think if Peter wants a flying car, we should be able to buy one. Okay, pause it right there. What if it just actually is a flying car? It could be. Large solar powered AI satellite constellation would be able to prevent global warming by making tiny adjustments in how much solar energy reached the Earth. How much CapEx does that cost? One thing that was super notable, and he was talking about the shareholder vote around his compensation, but also the voting power that he'll have. And one of the things that he said was, I don't want to create a robot army if I can be fired by ISS or any of these voting groups.

12:56Who should control the robot army? Good question. Let me tell you about public.com, investing for those that take it seriously. Multi-asset investing, industry-reaching yields, trusted by millions. They have shared new details on the internal conflicts that led to Sam Altman's initial firing, including a memo alleging that Altman exhibited a consistent pattern of lying. There's a deposition transcript that is going around that is now public from the Ilya deposition. Toucan kind of summarizes here. Ilya plotted for over a year with Mira to remove Sam. Dario wanted Greg Brockman fired and himself in charge of all research.

13:33That's Dario Amadei, I believe, from Anthropic. Mira Murati told Ilya, that Sam Altman, pitted her against Daniela Amadei. Ilya wrote a 52-page memo to get Sam fired and a separate doc on Greg. Tyler is going to be playing the attorney Agnelucci, and I will be attorney Molo. And I'm Ilya? It certainly does matter how much. What do you think the value of your equity at OpenAI was at the time Sam Altman was fired? And I'm instructing the witness not to answer as to the money value. Are you going to not answer? I have to obey my attorney. Okay, so you're not going to answer. I'll do what my attorney tells me to.

14:16I think it's very hard for someone who would be described as a saint to make it. We're on the road tomorrow, but we're still doing a show, 11 a.m. Pacific. We'll see you there. I don't think we'll be doing any guests. We'll see. It might be a little bit of a shorter show, but don't worry. A lot of timeline. We'll see you tomorrow. See you tomorrow. Goodbye. Love you.