Diet TBPN: October 20th, 2025

0:00You're watching TBPN. Today is Monday, October 20th, 2025. We are live from the TBPN UltraDome, the Temple of Technology, the Fortress of Finance, the Capital of Capital. Later in the show, we also have the CEO of GameStop, Ryan Cohen, joining the show at noon. So if you're new here and you're tuning in for the first time, please stay with us. Do you think the AWS outage is, is it entirely because of us and the GameStop shorts want us to stop podcasting so that we can't bring them the latest in the world of GameStop? I think it was potentially Amazon just turning it off for a second to show everyone that, hey, cloud, clouds is still pretty important.

0:41Yeah. Forgotten about us. That makes sense. You're still dependent on us. Andre Karpathy made waves this week on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast. He said a lot of, he called AI slop. He also said that the models are amazing. He said that autocomplete is his sweet spot. He had a bunch of positive things to say, but overall, people did not react positively. Everyone says the AI bubble is over. It's popped. You got to rotate out of AI stocks. My take is that if you're looking for something safe, you got to rotate into food, water, shelter, and guns. All of industrialization is a bubble. We're going back to monkey.

1:19We're returning to monkey. We're going to be living in huts because technology is a bubble. Technology is fake. And all we have left is to homestead and live in a shelter. So get ready to go back to sticks and stones. That's my take. Good take. Andre Carpathi was a co-founding member of OpenAI. He was there from day one. He also was at Tesla and built the self-driving car program there. He is one of the most respected AI practitioners, researchers, basically saying that AGI is like 10 years away, not one year, not two years. He's kind of debunking the idea, or at least he's just sharing like the vibes that he doesn't feel like the AI 2027 fast takeoffs scenario is probable.

2:02Over a year ago, September 23rd, 2024, Sam Altman posted a blog post called the intelligence age. And this is what he said in there. He said, it is possible that we will have super intelligence in a few thousand days. He's still setting expectations to be like AGI is a decade away, which is exactly what Andre said. But when Sam said it, everyone's like, let's go super long. And when Andre says, oh, it's bad, which is kind of an interesting tweak. Whenever you talk to a technologist and you say like, okay, you're working on getting us to Mars. You're working on fusion reactors. You're working on quantum computing.

2:34When will this actually change my life? When will this be, when will this technology be ready for prime time? Everyone says, it's just a decade away. It's going to be so long that everyone will have forgotten in a decade. Some people listened to the Carpathia interview and thought, great, I have 10 years to escape the permanent undercount. Yeah, totally. Which is exactly how OpenAI is also acting, right? They're acting like a big tech company. They're launching a social media ad. They're working on ads. They're working on commerce. They're trying to scale paid users, right? They're just acting like a traditional hyperscale.

3:07The fact that 10 years AGI is like a bearish take, that's so bullish. That's extremely bullish. Did you see a lot of pushback from anyone at the big labs on the interview? No, I didn't see anything. I expected to see more people saying, Karpathy's been out of the game for a few years. He doesn't have the scale. He's not really at the frontier. He's not seeing what we're seeing. And I didn't see any of that. Whatever you are thinking of doing in the public markets, go to public.com, investing for those that take it seriously. They got multi-asset investing, industry-leading yields. They're trusted by millions.

3:39Oracle's now on the hook for something like$300 billion in infrastructure over the next five years. That's a lot very quickly. They're hoping that OpenAI revenue will pay for that. It is very notable that OpenAI has announced partnerships with Etsy and Walmart and not Amazon and eBay. Amazon's management team, eBay's management team aren't so quick to let Sam, the fox, into the henhouse. Things can get out of control where like the iPhone got so dominant that Google had to pay Apple to be the default search. It's not the right framing to say like, we've never seen anything like this. It's breaking all of our patterns.

4:18So we're just completely operating off playbook. I think it's much better to just say that like, this is a new hyperscaler. We all saw what happened with Google and Amazon. They were started before the dot-com bubble popped. And they scaled very fast. OpenAI is scaling faster on users and revenue. And so we are investing more, but it's all proportionate. And so it's the exact same playbook. OpenAI growth, chat GPT growth is seemingly slowing a little bit. And that makes sense just based entirely on the scale that they're at right now. There's a reason that OpenAI wants its own browser. Perplexity wants its own browser.

4:52I don't think they've properly even leveraged Chrome yet in order to drive Gemini usage. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Browser wars of the summer of 2025. I want to pre-register the following opinion. I think it's plausible, but by no means guaranteed that we could see a massive financial crisis or bubble pop affecting AI in the next year. I expect if this happens, it will mostly be for mundane economic reasons, over leveraged markets, financial policy of major nations, mistiming of bets, even by a small amount of good old fraud. Not because the technology isn't making rapid progress. We got to go even harder.

5:25The bear market's bullish for doom. Underrated AI doom scenario. The bubble pops so hard that everyone goes bankrupt. There's mass famine and starvation. And humanity population collapses all because we went to leverage long AI. What do you think about that? Plausible? It just might be. How it feels listening to this podcast, it's balloon popping. We will see about that. The reason it is so important for everyone to keep pretending that AGI is definitely right around the corner is that there is now over$1 trillion of investment riding on this belief, either already expended or committed. We should move to the Napoleon jewels that were stolen from the Louvre in a major robbery.

6:12The thieves stole jewelry from display cases in Galerie d 'Apollion. Finally, a brazen heist. We are anti-heist. We are anti-crime. Do not do this. If you have information that could lead to the arrest of these thieves, let us know. We will send you a hat. Is this the cure for male loneliness? Tourists were streaming into the world's most visited museum on Sunday when a group of thieves burst in through a window of a gilded gallery on the second floor and made off with a set of priceless royal jewels. Two of the perpetrators, at least one wearing a high visibility yellow vest. That looks amazing.

6:44You blend in so much. It just looks like work crown. And they used angle grinders to cut through the window and get inside. Yeah, tempted but failed to set fire to their truck. So they were trying to burn the truck on the way out to, like, get rid of all the fingerprints, I suppose. And they dropped the crown of Empress Eugene with nearly 1 ,400 diamonds before they sped away. It was found damaged. No one was injured. Eight pieces in total were stolen, including an emerald earring and an emerald necklace that belonged to Empress Marie. Such a brutal fumble. Fumbling 1 ,400 diamonds. Massive fumble.

7:17Yeah, obviously, they're never going to be able to capture the same value necessarily as if you're able to do an open auction. There's a small pool of buyers. Yeah. There's probably 100 people in the world that would be willing to pay tens of millions. Yeah. And potentially more. Yeah. Just to know that they had it. And just to be a family secret. Do you think there are any buyers that would flex it? What if you're Vladimir Putin? What if you're Kim Jong-un? Elon says, my estimate on the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10 % and rising. Gabe says, 10 % chance Elon declares he reached AGI a fourth time.

7:54Elon says a lot of crazy stuff about like, I hope that we'll be able to do novel physics. I think the next version is going to be really powerful, this and that. But I don't know that he's ever actually called a version of Grok AGI. But anyway, it clearly upset Elon because he replied and said, you call yourself a quote unquote researcher. Hitting somebody with the double quotes. We know with the pain that that inflicts. It's terrible. You never want to be hit with the double quotes. Jensen Huang was at a Citadel event, Future of Global Markets, and said we are 100 % out of China. We went from 95 % market share to 0%.

8:32I can't imagine any policymaker thinking that's a good idea. 100 % out of China, but doing astonishingly healthy business in Singapore and Malaysia, totally out of the blue. Swinging around accusations that Singapore and Malaysia are fronts for Chinese chip demand. We also love ramp.com. Time is money. Save both. Easy to use. Corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. Why the China doves are wrong. American business leaders cozying up to Beijing refuse to see that the communist party wants us to fail. That while some Americans wear the label China Hawk as a badge of honor, it is really a badge of shame.

9:11The future, Mr. Wong says, doesn't have to be all us or them. It could be us and them. A lot of this is all teeing up a major trade deal. The rare earth equation is certainly a big one. America has a bunch of levers to pull. If they were truly like the next scaling run is what does it, they would be like, oh, let's take the NVIDIA chips as well. Instead, they're saying, okay, well, let's actually gear up for independence over a long period of time. JP Morgan says NVIDIA CEO Jensen Wong's projection of AI CapEx growing from$600 billion today to$3 to$4 trillion by 2030 is financially feasible, though ambitious.

9:49Even with a projected$1.6 trillion annual funding gap, private markets could contribute about$500 billion per year by 2030, leaving the rest to be covered by leverage expansion. Yeah, and the key question is, you know, if you want AI CapEx to scale to three to four trillion, you're going to need revenue to support that. Jordy, have you received any inbound from random people who seem to have GPT psychosis? Hard to say. Humans no longer necessary, so we're getting rid of them. Replacement AI can do anything a human can do, but better, faster, and much, much cheaper. Quote from Sam Allman, AI will probably most likely lead to the end of the world but in the meantime there'll be great companies that's a wild quote here from dario i think there's a 25 chance that things go really really badly the starbucks ceo brian nickel says the coffee giant is all in on ai reveals real-time artificial intelligence systems designed to assist baristas and transform store operations uh we got to put on the schizo hat okay please Starbucks stock is up 6.66 % in the past five days.

10:57Coincidence? Very weird number. Are they using AI to summon the demon? Uber is going to give its drivers in the U.S. an option to make money by doing digital tasks. These short, minute-long tasks can be done anytime, including while idling for passengers. I hope they put some type of restriction in where if they detect that you're actually moving, that they say you cannot do data labeling right now. What if you have FSD? Somebody in traffic just data labeling. FSC. Tyler, you're pretty AGI-pilled, right? Yeah. Okay, well, why don't you earn$100 doing data labeling? That's your challenge for the next 24 hours.

11:32It was weird being in Vegas recently, so quiet, so many fewer people gambling, drinking, partying. My pet theory, Ozempic killing Vegas, just like it's killing snack food brands, liquor producers, and Napa. Yes. I would go the opposite angle with the rise of Robinhood prediction markets and sports betting. There's little reason to go to Vegas. It is more expensive. The house edge is higher and it's hotter outside. Less drinking contributes to though. Isn't Vegas just like a recession indicator, right? Like the real economy is not doing well right now. I saw another quote that just said like the nightlife scene there has been hyper financialized to a degree that it's just not even fun anymore.

12:13People aren't gambling for one reason or another. Maybe it's the Ozempic. You need to make Vegas high end. Yeah, what if they set up a bunker in there that has a bunch of stolen goods from all over the world? Kremu says, over the last 15 years, Reddit's relationship advice has shifted towards recommending breakups, boundaries, and therapies, and against compromised communication and letting people have their space. This is concerning for a number of reasons. One being that your favorite AI models are all trained on Reddit. If you're having relationships problems, whether friend or romantic, and you start a podcast together, that sounds like terrible advice.

12:53Okay, so here are the options from Reddit. End relationship. Communicate. Give space slash time. Set respect boundaries. Seek therapy, counseling. Compromise. Other. How about getting the octagon? Duke it out. Duke it out. If you're having a relationship problem with someone, buy them a luxury watch on getbezel.com. Because your bezel concierge is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch. if you're like, oh. The Senate Republicans posted a video of Chuck Schumer. Chuck Schumer thinks playing with Americans. Every day gets better for us. Chuck Schumer. When come women, infants.

13:24Every day gets better for us. Okay. Okay, the mouth movement is a little. Chuck Schumer thinks. Every day gets better for us. Every day gets better for us. I mean, like, it's clearly based on some real image that they took, and so the lighting looks very real, the skin texture looks really real, because the AI model doesn't really have to do that much to regenerate it from scratch. But of course, we've seen that all the models are basically indistinguishable if you don't have full context at this point. Thank you so much. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Tomorrow. We'll see you tomorrow.