GPT 4.5 Comparison, Where's the Moat?, RIP Skype, Sulek Earns Pro Card, Cursor for Figma

28 Feb 2025 · 2 h 8 min

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TBPN Podcast Episode Summary

Episode Information

  • Podcast Title: TBPN
  • Episode Title: GPT 4.5 Comparison, Where's the Moat?, RIP Skype, Sulek Earns Pro Card, Cursor for Figma
  • Date: February 28, 2024
  • Duration: 2 hours
  • Hosts: [Names not provided in the transcript]

Episode Description This episode dives into numerous tech topics including the release of GPT 4.5, the unfortunate shutdown of Skype, the impressive rise of bodybuilder Sam Sulek, and innovations such as Cursor for Figma.

Key Segments

  1. Celebrating Birthdays and Humor
  2. (00:00): The episode kicks off with a birthday celebration for producer Ben.
  3. (01:58): A humorous segment featuring jokes, including a comedic take on how technology makes humans feel smarter than they are.
  1. GPT 4.5 Analysis
  2. (05:17):
  3. Discussion Points:
  4. GPT 4.5 release by OpenAI and its implications.
  5. The discussion revolves around whether increasing pre-training compute leads to proportional improvements.
  6. The hosts reflect on the evolution of GPT models and their qualitative improvements.
  7. The notion that while GPT 4.5 is better, it may not show dramatic differences from GPT 4 in concrete scenarios.
  • Key Takeaways:
  • GPT 4.5 shows enhanced performance in creativity and nuanced understanding.
  • It does not significantly excel in reasoning-heavy tasks compared to previous models.
  • Users have mixed feelings about which model performs better in humorous or creative tasks.
  1. Skype's Shutdown
  2. (49:50):
  3. The hosts pay tribute to Skype, discussing its historical significance and the transition to newer communication platforms.
  4. Reflections on early usage experiences are shared.
  1. Sam Sulek's Pro Card Achievement
  2. (01:00:58):
  3. Sam Sulek's accomplishment in bodybuilding, emphasizing the discipline and dedication it takes to achieve a pro card.
  4. The hosts draw parallels between Sulek's work ethic and entrepreneurial spirit.
  1. Cursor for Figma
  2. (01:06:36):
  3. Introduction of Cursor, a new tool for Figma, and its implications for design workflows.
  4. Discussion of how modern design tools are evolving and integrating into the daily lives of designers.

Additional Discussions

  • The Timeline: The hosts address various hot topics circulating on social media, including tech news and influencer culture.
  • Market Dynamics: Comments on the current state of tech startups, AI advancements, and the competitive landscape.

Conclusion The episode wraps up with a focus on the broader implications of the discussed topics, showcasing the rapid evolution in technology, communication, and personal development. The audience is encouraged to engage with the show and participate in future discussions.

Key Quotes

  • "GPT 4.5 shows improvements, but it's all about the small nuances."
  • "Skype... it was a staple that many of us grew up using, and now it's time to say goodbye."

Sponsored Segments

  • Ramp: Discussed as a financial management tool.
  • Eight Sleep: Highlighted for its benefits in sleep optimization.
  • Public: A platform for investment opportunities.

Final Thoughts Listeners are encouraged to reflect on the content, explore the technological advancements discussed, and consider the cultural implications of these shifts in technology and communication.

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Transcript

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0:00You're watching TBPN live from the temple of technology, the fortress of finance. That's right. The capital of capital. Today is Friday, February 28th. And we got to say happy birthday to our vice president, Ben. He's back in the studio. Ben. They tried. The enemies tried to take him down. They could not. They couldn't do it. He's too powerful. But we got a great show for you today. We're covering GPT 4.5. We're going to answer the question, what do you get when you spend 10 times as much money pre-training in LLM? There's been a bunch of conversation on the timeline about this. We're going to break it all down.

0:36Also, Skype is shutting down. I'm sure we'll have to do a little moment of silence for that. Tell some stories about our early Skype usage days. Give you a little background on the company and how they wound up there. And then the timeline has just been in turmoil. So we're going to be spending a ton of time on the timeline. To say the least. Yeah, it's been spicy. To say the least. This morning, there's been drama and there's been tons of fun posts as always. So stay tuned. We got a great show for you today. Jordy, how are you feeling? I am feeling good. I'm a little frustrated because Ben didn't tell us that it was his birthday until about five minutes ago and you know how people try to be nonchalant wait till it's we got an hour till it's noon and he just drops, oh yeah, it's actually my birthday cool you're so nonchalant no, tell me Ben's going to mute me this goes out to all the nonchalant birthday boys out there tell us it's your birthday a week, a month before, a week before, a day before in the morning of.

1:40I want to know so I can set up singing Telegram, Mariachis. We were at breakfast with Ben earlier today. I should have had the whole staff come out and sing him Happy Birthday. I would have done that. Pancakes with candles. But he robbed us of that opportunity. And I will never forgive you for that, Ben. Anyway, Jordy, would you like to hear a joke? I love your jokes. You love my jokes, but these are my jokes. You didn't write this joke. I didn't write this joke. This is a joke written by a model that cost$5 trillion, actually. We should get into the actual cost. But for those that are maybe listening for the first time, this is my default eval.

2:15This is John's eval. You're Coogan's eval. And we should actually, you got to coin this. We got to coin this. So Coogan's eval is where you take the new model and you say, tell me a funny joke. Make sure it's actually a funny joke, like a stand-up set and not just a knock-knock joke or something simple. My favorite comedians are Shane Gillis, Dave Chappelle, et cetera. And so why don't you read out the joke and... Buckle up. I mean, you're going to be in tears. We should get some tissues because you're going to be laughing so hard. So, hey, you ever notice how technology makes us think we're way smarter than we actually are?

2:51Like, I realized this when my Wi-Fi went out the other day. I immediately panicked because without Google, I'm basically just an ape holding an iPhone. Seriously. If you took me back to the middle ages and asked me how to build a simple pulley system, I'd be like, uh, you got YouTube here.

3:19That's incredible. Amazing. Of course, that's not the goal of these models. Their job is to work in the mines. Oh, you want me to keep going? It's so bad. Okay, so, and it's not just the internet. Remember when we thought Alexa and Siri were going to make our lives easier? Now it's just me arguing with a speaker about whether I said play Kanye or order Pad Thai. My credit card's maxed out, but hey, my Spotify playlist is fire. I like how it just throws in this completely random non sequitur. Yeah, I don't get it. Why is it maxed out? Because he's paying for like AI tools ordering pad thai i don't know uh speaking of tech i think the weirdest part about ai isn't that it's smarter than us it's that it's becoming more human we're programmed we programmed ai to mimic humans and now ai lies makes mistakes and blames other people we invented digital middle management congratulations humanity we've automated incompetence wow a real knee slapper right perfect i mean i did that was that stolen from shane gillis or dave chappelle i think what we need to do is feed your lines back into the model and ask it to judge your delivery because it really might come down to the delivery maybe i'm setting it up you're setting it up to fail you don't want to believe that the model can be as funny as you are uh but uh anyways we're not we're not we don't have agi yet we're not out of a job yet so stay tuned but i mean that realistically that's not why like they're not even trying to make these models that funny uh it is they should eval i think it's a good eval i think that they should be able to do that at some point and it and and the humor eval is a way of asking you know the model like can you do something that you haven't been trained on right yeah the the move 37 of of writing is a joke a novel joke in my real benchmark is a true knee slapper i think so i think so uh but anyway uh we got a much more serious analysis from Andre Carpathi.

5:20He says, GPT 4.5 and an interactive comparison. Today marks the release of GPT 4.5 by OpenAI. I've been looking forward to this for two years, ever since GPT 4 was released, because this release offers a qualitative measurement of the slope of improvement you get out of scaling pre-training compute. This is something we've talked about. I'm super scale-pilled. Scaling is real. But the question is, if you scale the model up 10x, do you get a 10x improvement? Do you get a 1x, a 2x improvement? Do you get 10 %? Do you get 100x? Like sometimes, you know, and he talks about the evolution here. So each 0.5 in the version is roughly 10x pre-training compute.

6:01Now recall that GPT-1 barely generates coherent text. GPT-2 was a confused toy. GPT-2.5 was skipped straight into GPT-3, which was even more interesting. Then GPT 3.5 crossed the threshold where it was enough to actually ship as a product and sparked OpenAI's chat GPT moment. And if you remember, when GPT 3.5 was getting really good, there was this DaVinci model. There's GPT 3.5002-DaVinci, a great name, of course. Very memorable. But that was the moment when people in the developer community were toying with it and being like, okay, this thing is actually like passing the Turing test. Like it sounds like human.

6:39And it is remarkable. It's a remarkable innovation. And so GPT-4 in turn also felt better, but I'll say that it definitely felt more subtle. I remember being part of a hackathon trying to find concrete prompts where GPT-4 outperformed 3.5. They definitely existed, but clear and concrete slam dunk examples were difficult to find. It's that everything was just a little bit better, but in a diffuse way. The word choice was a bit more creative. Understanding of nuance in the prompt was improved. Analogies made a bit more sense. The model was a little bit funnier. World knowledge and understanding was improved at the edges of rare domains.

7:18Hallucinations were a bit less frequent. The vibes were just a bit better. It felt like the water that rises all boats where everything gets slightly improved by 20%. So it is with that expectation that I went into testing GPT 4.5, which I had access to for a few days and which saw 10x more pre-training compute than GPT 4. and I feel like once again I'm in the same hackathon two years ago everything is a little bit better and it's awesome but also not exactly in ways that are trivial to point to still it is incredibly interesting and exciting as another qualitative measurement of a certain slope of capability that comes for free just from pre-training a bigger model keep in mind that GPT 4.5 was only trained with pre-training supervised fine-tuning and RLHF so this is not yet a reasoning model therefore this model release does not push forward model capability in cases where reasoning is critical, like math and code.

8:08In these cases, training with RL, reinforcement learning, and gaining thinking is incredibly important and works better, even if it is on top of an older base model, GPT-4-ish capability or so. The state-of-the-art here remains the full O1. Presumably, OpenAI will now be looking to further train with reinforcement learning on top of GPT-4.5 model to allow it to think and push model capability in these domains. However, we do actually expect to see an improvement in tasks that are not reasoning heavy. And I would say those tasks are more EQ as opposed to IQ. So it's more just better to chat with and actually have a conversation with.

8:48Related and bottlenecked by world knowledge, creativity, analogy making, general understanding, humor, etc. Definitely bottlenecked by humor. Yes. So these are the tasks that I was most interested during my vibe checks. So below I thought it'd be fun to highlight five funny slash amusing prompts to test these capabilities and organize them into an interactive LM arena light right here on X using a combination of images and polls in a thread. Sadly, X does not allow you to include both an image and a poll in a single post. So I have to alternate posts that give the image. And then so basically he put, he left it up for eight hours.

9:25This got a million views, lots of people voted and he broke down the results. And interestingly, he says, okay, so I didn't super expect the results of the GPT-4 versus GPT-4.5 poll from earlier today. But GPT-4.5 outperformed GPT-4 on only one of the five questions. People prefer GPT-4 in four out of five questions. Awkward. And it's always odd. I mean, the splits are not huge. 56 % of people prefer GPT-4.5 in one question. the margins were 10 20 percent it wasn't like it wasn't like 100 90 percent of people thought it was one way or another still to 60 40 for every one person that prefers you know gpt four or five in question three two people prefer g4 that is pretty significant yeah and he says to be honest i found this a bit surprising as i personally found gpt 4.5 to responses to be better in all cases, but maybe I'm just a high taste tester.

10:27I think that's probably true considering you built this, Andre, and you're like one of the greatest programmers of all time. And so you probably have high IQ. Yeah. But the thing to look for is that GPT-4 more often says stuff. Trump has a refined taste in another kind of model.

10:48the thing to look for is that gpt4 more often says stuff that on the face of it looks fine and type checks as making sense but if you really think about it longer or more carefully carefully you will often more you will more often catch it saying things that are a bit of an odd thing to say or a little too formulaic a little too basic a little too cringy or a little too tropey slightly reassuring a number of people noted similar surprise in the replies i noticed the few I noticed as an example. For the roast, 4.5 is punchier. For the story, 4.5, narrative jumped in, had dialogue, and hinted at a unique storyline.

11:24B was a little bit more schematic. For the poem, 4.5 is obviously way better. The rhyme scheme and meter of B are so unsophisticated. A has to be 4.5. The voters have poor taste. I like that. So yeah, either high taste testers are noticing the new and unique structure but the low taste ones are overwhelming the pole all you plebs don't normies lobies don't can't if you can't tell the honestly if you can't tell the difference if you can't tell the difference between 4.5 and 4 like i don't even know if you should be allowed to be a member of society it's interesting you have to imagine uh open ai is trying to continuously dominate the narrative right it's sort of there's sort of ahead on revenue, but well beyond But it's like a knockout, dragout fight in terms of attention and what's the hottest It's really a war for attention They had Grok last week Was it over the...

12:22It was Friday? It started last week, but then the app rolled out, the voice mode rolled out, the reasoning The new Claude model Claude 3.7 There's some value in being the last model to drop in just terms of sucking the air out of the room And I believe that this model will be the top of the stack in benchmarks. And OpenAI has always done this cadence where they come out with the best. And then a couple of months later, there's a whole flood of everyone else catching up. And all of a sudden, they're beating them by like a few percentage. And then OpenAI comes back and is back on top. And so if you average out like OpenAI is not always on the top of the rankings on every single benchmark.

13:05but they probably have the most number of days on top because they're on top, like, you know, for about half the year. And then towards the back half of the year, everyone else is kind of chipping away at their leads and different benchmarks and stuff. But, but it's fun. So he closes out and says, so we'll wait for the larger. There's also this feeling that it's hard to know if it's accurate, but there's a general feeling that I have and I'm sure others do that, that the other foundation model companies are launching stuff as fast as they possibly can. And OpenAI is maybe sort of timing things more and that who knows, you know.

13:44I kind of disagree with that. I mean, I think that, I mean, the narrative is like Anthropic has some insane voice model that they haven't released for safety reasons. And I think if anything, all the grok push and stuff, that's really pushing the cadence at OpenAI. For sure, for sure. I'm not saying they're not feeling the pressure. I'm just saying they seem to be they seem to be keep you know you can imagine if they wanted to launch GPT-5 you know could do they feel the urgent they felt clearly an urgency to come out with four or five sure maybe they don't and they're feeling the pressure to get five out but there's not they're sort of like trying to stay just perpetually slightly ahead yep and focusing on quality whereas grok was just we have massive amount of compute we're just going to brute force spend launch as fast as possible iterate grok was clearly not actually ready for production yeah it didn't have a lot of reinforcement learning that yeah made it so you would just get these obscene answers that never should have been live right it clearly was more of even it was a almost like a beta version of the product in many ways it was responding to stuff that was more of an alpha level product where that stuff should have been caught it's so funny to me that the non-profit board at open ai was upset with sam for launching chat gpt the very first version and they were like he's moving too fast he's too dangerous can you imagine the non-profit board watching elon launch grok 3 and they're just like no no reinforcement learning it's like giving you gas like how to make a bomb stuff it's generating intellectual property that's completely infringing like it has sexy mode and they're just like what like actually like sam would be much better yeah on second thought yeah yeah actually we should have backed sam and and kept elon out of the biggest non-profit backer was the most degenerate yeah yeah that's hilarious safety pill yeah it's just accelerate accelerate accelerate totally totally the entire time yeah uh but yeah to elon's credit he doesn't he he he you know makes the claim that that sam is is disingenuous and and uh yeah snaky or whatever he's not saying that sam is reckless exactly it's actually a very different critique yeah and i and i think i think it's good like i think that this shows that you know just scaling up uh you know um like there was definitely a a drumbeat from the ai doomer community that that gpt 4.5 gpt 5 you scale up the pre-training by uh by 10x they were so scale pilled that they said when you scale up by 10x you're going to get a 10x more dangerous model yeah you're going to get 10x more risk and that does not feel like what's going on right now at all it feels like yeah these things are still like friendly and nice and they make mistakes and they're just simulating humans and humans are default like kind of good but also sometimes midwits and sometimes they, you know, come up with good stuff and you know, it's all about how you implement them.

16:48And if somebody uses one of these models and creates a wrapper that does something bad, then yeah, you're going to get a bad outcome, but the model itself is not going to, you know, break out and have a mind of its own and destroy everything. Um, so Andre finishes out by saying one really bad mistake that bugs me is in the GPT 4.4 versus 4.5 conversation. The one generated by 4.5. 4.5 asks, still buffering your responses like it's dial-up internet? This is really bad because it clearly borrows tropes from early days computing. Huh, interesting. Anyway, let's go to some of the other takes. Michael Magnano is - Wait, this comment is interesting.

17:29You think this is about it? No, the, for main reaction there, I don't know if we have the answer, but it says, is it possible the 4.0 update last month was already a distillation of 4.5? I think the results would be less concerning if so. Oh yeah, because maybe we got some of that already baked in. And that's why it's such a small difference. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's hard to tell because like if you're just trying to stay out of the news. And this goes back to people right now are almost comforted in the fact that you're getting chapters of an LLM, right? Sort of like version one, two, et cetera.

18:00And they all have different naming scenes. But over time, you can imagine and they're just perpetually updating. But that's uncomfortable to be, you know, humans get smarter or dumber over time, right? Depending on their environment and their viewpoint of the world and knowledge and all that stuff. But it's not necessarily perpetually updating throughout even a day where you wake up and your employee in the morning is brilliant and then they're slightly, you know, dumber later in the day, nerfed. I mean, the vibes around the cadence going from ChatGPT, which launched on 3.5 to GPT4. Everyone saw ChatGPT in 3.5.

18:41And we were like, we crossed the Turing test. AI is here. This is going to be massively disruptive. There's going to be no more marketing jobs because it can just write copy. There's going to be mass unemployment. Even beyond the doomers who are saying this is going to kill us, a lot of people are like, this is going to fundamentally change the world very rapidly because it's happening at internet scale. It's not, it's not an Adams company. It's a bits company. And so this can be rolled out into every single company and layoffs can happen now. Right. And so people were, people were worried. And then three months later, it was like, oh, we did, we did, we went from three to four, which feels like a 25%, 33 % increase.

19:17It just felt like, oh, okay, if we're continuing at this pace, like the acceleration is real. But then over the last two years, we've just been incrementing on fours, four, one, four, five, four, oh. And people were starting to call that out. But Sam, if you're out there in the markets trying to raise 40 on 350, 350 billion or whatever the price is with the moss around, you want there to be this sense of, hey, there's this sort of impending super intelligence. And if you're needing to raise that kind of capital, you need super intelligence to perpetually be right around the corner even even elon was posting i think earlier this week we were on the it's the eve of super intelligence you know whatever everybody sort of um yeah if if the models were to stagnate completely yep there there would be a massive pullback in in sort of new investment right because you see the difference between four and four or five, that's not going to get the incremental, whatever,$20 billion of investment.

20:22It's such an interesting dance because if you go too hard and you say super intelligence is right around the corner, well, then the regulator is going to come out. People are going to be protesting in the streets. The doomers are going to have a bigger argument saying, look, you can just look at what Sam is saying. He's going to say it's the most powerful God in a box. We have We have to control this. We have to regulate it. But if you don't say, hey, super intelligence is coming, well then why should we invest a trillion dollars in the CapEx? Like we, in order to make these types of investments, it's gotta be the real deal.

20:54And so finding that balance is really, really tricky in my opinion. I think Satya has the right balance, which is that AI in its current state and for the near future is this sort of, almost like a co-pilot, it's a thought partner. It's not, it doesn't yet have total agency right it's not actually replacing an employee but it's it's being a work sort of partner for you yeah and that still justifies a lot of capex but i don't think it justifies an incremental 30 billion dollar investment in open ai at the moment in time interesting um i think people massively underestimate how much work there is to be done one point of view i forget who was talking about this earlier this week is that there's so much value to be created and captured from the current technology set.

21:45It would take a, even if we had, even if all model development paused and we had a 10 year shot, we just went to implement the technology. We could still, there would still be numerous, numerous, you know, and that's what happened with the.com boom. Like the internet rolled out uh dial up was pretty terrible pretty limited but even in like i don't know 2000 what 2004 2005 people were starting to get high speed internet dsl uh cable stuff that you were where you could play video games online you could stream videos and then there was a question about like okay well what if your internet gets 10 times faster well like you're not going to watch 10 movies at the same time like and yes you could stream 8k video instead of 1080p but most people just are fine with 1080p it's still entertaining and exactly and so and so like we accelerated the speed and number of connections to the internet and then it took us 20 years to actually reap that benefit even though the tech kept getting better and the internet has gotten faster and now you can download an 8k video very quickly if you have the right line but most people are just like, yeah, I just need, you know, a couple gig download and I'm fine.

22:57It is interesting. Well, let's move on to some reactions. We got Michael Mignano. He says, technology is not a moat, never has been. There are so many examples of incumbents copying startups technologies and leveraging their distribution to crush competition. And AI coding models are quickly making technology even less defensible with coding models like Claude, assistance like Cursor, and no code tools like Lovable and Bolt, it's becoming stupidly easy to copy existing products and apps with virtually no effort. Turns out the stuff that actually matters is what always mattered. Strong products, real network effects, ruthless distribution, and brands people actually care about.

23:34The winners will double down on those things while everyone else wonders why their perfect tech keeps getting cloned into irrelevance. So the most relevant sort of point related to all of this is that, you know, we've talked about this on the show before, this idea of easy come, easy go. Yep. And so the same, you know, the issue with Cursor is if you can go to$100 million building a product that was an open, you know, sort of open source, it was like VS Code, right? VS Code Fork. They forked it, get to$100 million in revenue, Lovable and Bolt come out, you know, Lovable goes from zero to 17 million in three months with a small team.

24:19But the same technology that enables them to do that also enables other people to come and compete away their market, right? So Windsurf AI, which is a cursor competitor, they have gotten to a$40 million run rate in a very short amount of time. And so historically, if you look at these businesses that have this sort of explosive growth, sometimes there's sort of specific market dynamics that allowed that to happen or allowed a specific team to do that or relationships that enabled it. But oftentimes if a pure play software company explodes in growth, uh, and there's no network effects, which, which Michael references here, uh, or sort of a durable distribution advantage, right.

24:58Um, that, that, that, that value creation can erode very quickly. Um, and so what I think we're all interested to see how this plays out is all these companies that have this explosive revenue growth. One, it's great because when people say, oh, there's this big bubble, you can point and say, well, real value is being corrected. But real customers are handing over dollars to pay for these products. And, you know, cursor would have gone public, you know, a year ago if it was 2021. Right. Yeah. But what I think we're all waiting to see play out is does this revenue, you know, ultimately get competed away by other teams that, you know, there's teams that will use cursor to compete with cursor.

25:40Right. which is uh you know so we'll see uh i think we're generally you know bullish on these companies uh in the in the short medium term but unclear how they sort of maintain uh and and continue to create value when people just say you know there will be a version of cursor that allows somebody to vibe code a free version of cursor right uh how far like i'm actually surprised we haven't seen somebody say i use cursor to rebuild cursor and that would definitely go viral We've seen some people do additional forks and there's been some pushback. I think there was that YC company. And so, yeah, there has been pushback.

26:19I wonder, are you a bull or bear on DocuSign? DocuSign is like the quintessential. You should be able to rebuild that with Cursor, right? It's just forms and filings. But maybe those 10 ,000, 200 ,000 employees they have are just the best sales guys. They're embedded in every organization. They're calling you on your birthday. They're celebrating you. They're picking your kids up from school. They tell you their birthday that morning. They wake up and say, hey, it's your favorite sales rep. Yeah, you clone DocuSign for$5 in cursor credits or whatever. You have Devin on the case for the weekend, and you got yourself a DocuSign clone.

26:56But how are you distributing it? You need 10 ,000 sales guys. Maybe, maybe. I don't think we know. The bigger threat to DocuSign is, again, And so Google Workspace, I think, just rolled out a document signing product. We already pay for Google Workspace. It's one click away. It's not going to be as good. But for sure, Google's calendar booking link throttled the growth of Calendly and other things like that. And so I think the bigger threat to some of these sort of commodity products. The thing is, I mean, document signing has the viral sort of effect. where you sign up, but that also enables new product.

27:40Yeah. Distributions baked in. Yep. But I mean, we've said this maybe five times on the show before. How has DocuSign not said, hey, our product's actually pretty simple. We should be able to maintain it with a team of 100 engineers. We actually don't need a thousand. Yeah. Let's sort of give back. Let's free these people to go work on other more interesting products. Set them free. Set them free. Instead of slaving away in the DocuSign minds. Yeah. And just let them go work on more interesting things and then give that cash back to shareholders or invest in new products. It just seems like a very uninspiring company.

28:17But we'll see. Yeah. Anyway, Scott Wu, CEO of Cognition, chimed in with his take on GPT 4.5. I thought this was an interesting data point because he's obviously using these models very deeply. He says, GPT 4.5 has been awesome to work with. Of course, they build this into Devon. You can run Devon on a number of different LLMs. And he says, our agentic coding benchmarks, on our agentic coding benchmark, it already shows massive improvements over 01 and 40. Excited to see the model's continued trajectory on code. One interesting data point. Although GPT 4.5 and CLAWD 3.7 Sonnet score similarly on our overall benchmark, we find that GPT 4.5 spikes more heavily on tasks involving architecture and cross-system interactions, whereas Claude 3.7 Sonnet spikes more on raw coding and code editing.

29:16As AI takes on increasingly complex tasks, we believe that multimodal agents that incorporate each model's unique strengths will perform best. Just like in your brain, you have different sections of your brain to do different tasks on a team you have that developer who's really good at architecture and you have that other guy who's just a beast writing code all night long and so uh i might be off here but with devon and cognition's position where as the underlying models get dramatically better their product gets you know better and more valuable that's a great position to be in given the complexity of building out this sort of team-like uh product you know like uh individual contributor as product that's integrated into a team yep will cognition be better positioned than a cursor where you know as uh how long until you can get devin to build a version of cursor and just say hey fork yeah you know we might be 10 years away from that but it's it's not even that i mean like the the mental model i have for for uh cursor versus devin is like completely separate things.

30:27One is like this. No, totally. I'm just saying. And with Devin, I almost see it as like, you could see them like a, like a McKinsey almost where it's like, there's a large company and they're like, Hey, we have this app and it runs on iOS and we need to get it to run on Android. And so you just need to take that code and transfer it. And it's just going to be a lot of work and it's got to be done perfectly. And so we just want you, we're going to give you$10 million to do it because it would cost 50 million to do it with, you know, some human outsourcing team and and cognition just goes and cranks and like gets it done and then eventually you're doing that all over your organization and it's much more for like these these like corporate projects than like you know uh yeah or backlogs etc yeah yeah exactly i i've seen a lot of case studies like that but it's very it's very different and then also yeah it's it's very um it's very like it's a b2b product like yeah they are in open access you can just go install it um but it is expensive and it's a very different sales motion, I think.

31:26Anyway, let's go to Chubby, hilarious name, with the most serious post talking about OpenAI Mark Chen, who I actually got dinner with a couple months ago. Great guy. Mark Chen says, we found a new paradigm through reasoning, which we're also scaling. That's right, because GPT 4.5 was clearly proven that pre-training has definitely reached a wall. GPT-5 must be a banger. Last chance says Chubby. And so a lot of people throwing a little bit of, a little question on, you know, hey, everyone is going to be shifting to, oh, no, no, no, we don't focus on just bigger, bigger models. We focus on reasoning because like that's the next paradigm.

32:11But I think that's fine. I don't care where you're optimizing your AI system. I don't care if it's all the gains are in pre-training. All the gains are in post-training. All the gains are in RLHF. When RLHF came out, people were like, oh, so like now like to scale and improve a model, you just need to have a bunch of people like writing answers like this is an AI. And it's like, I don't care. I just want. Just give me good results. Good results. Make me laugh. Make me laugh. John just wants to laugh. But also do the research reports and make them great, you know, and, you know, throw, scale all of these things.

Read the full transcript

32:46And I think that there's probably going to be these cycles of memes online where people are like, oh, scale doesn't matter at all. It's all about reasoning. Oh, RLHF doesn't matter. It's all about post-training or pre-training or fine-tuning or custom stuff or rappers. I do think it's fair for people like Chubby to feel like they have the right to try to hold OpenAI and these other model companies who have made these sort of massive, audacious claims. And they've put out a lot of communications on this topic to try to say, yeah, last chance. GPT-5 has got to be a banger. They're basically holding.

33:25It's so funny to be in a nod and be like, hey,$300 billion company, last chance. Last chance. Who are you to decide whether or not this happens? But yeah, there's this balance between the... It's more so... yeah chubby is probably a customer of open ai yep they're allowed to have strong opinions totally if they're marketed something to yeah uh but at the same time open ai it's squarely within their right to try to massage the narrative and say well actually this is the thing that's more important yeah yeah so i think both both sides have clear well let's go to another hater do you know gary marcus i do not okay gary marcus is a fascinating figure in ai he wrote a piece called deep learning is hitting a wall he he uh he was at uh he sold an ai company to uber i believe and his whole thing is uh what is it symbolic symbol manipulation so he believes that like you cannot just throw a big pile of data at a basic algorithm like the gpt3 algorithm and then just do predict next word predict next word predict next word and then get god or get the genius human he maintains that like humans represent information in their brains in different ways than that.

34:40It's not just predict the next word every two seconds. Right. And so special and unique snowflakes. He's, he's somewhat right because there are clearly like the reasoning and, and being able to search the web and use Python and all these different tools. We're building out the machine brain in multiple different sectors. But he's also been like massively wrong for a long time because he was saying like deep learning will never scale and it's like i'm talking to he's the michael burry of models exactly exactly and so but you only got it you know if he's right right now he's gonna be pretty a lot of people have been like this guy is a joke like why is he be why is he testifying in front of congress at the same time you know he i think he does have a phd he's like he's like a serious researcher uh he's just taken a very contrarian stance but so has uh noam chomsky Noam Chomsky was a linguist at MIT and had a lot of theories on the way language is constructed and argued that you could not represent a human through a sloppy algorithm.

35:45There needed to be some sort of more fundamental truth. And so symbol manipulation basically says like, you know, we need to have, you know, a concept baked into the model of like what a table is, how it interacts with a chair, all these different things. And so it's been controversial because there haven't been as many gains in the symbol manipulation world. But Gary's been, you know, happily taking a victory lap, I guess, over GPT 4.5, not just purely proving that pre-training scale is all you need. But let's find out. So Chubby again says, judging by the mood, GPT 4.5 is the first big failure for OpenAI.

36:22Too expensive, too little improvement, and often inferior to GPT 4.0, even in comparison and creative answers in community tests like what Andre Carpathy posted. And it's interesting because too expensive, don't care at all. They're going to distill this model and get it a thousand times cheaper in two seconds. Too little improvement. That is interesting. But again, you have to run the CapEx to profit calculation. and the gpt4 training run i think was like under 100 million dollars or something which is still like a lot of money at the time but 100 million dollars and they're making billions and so you if you train 100 million dollar run and then generate you generate billions a year forever potentially if you can be not necessarily super high margin not yet but once you bake it down onto silicon onto a chip or something like i'm just yeah yeah like true like they're not profitable right now, but just the idea of any of these AI companies throwing a billion at, or 10 billion, when you think about how much usage there's going to be, it's not as crazy as you think.

37:26And so the question isn't - Yeah, especially when you consider there's models that no one uses that have raised$100 million and have spent most of it with nothing to show for it. So OpenAI looks like they're allocating fairly efficiently. And you could say the same thing about like Amazon.com, they built out huge data centers 10 times. They 10X their CapEx like 10 times, right? Did the experience of Amazon.com get that much better? No, but they printed money the whole time because they have a great product on top of it. And so you don't necessarily need a 10X improvement in the core product if the business is working and it's generating cash.

38:04You can underwrite those CapEx expenses all day. And that's why a lot of people are jumping into this because Elon is saying, look, I'm going to spend billions of dollars on Grok and XAI, but then I'm going to vend that into Tesla. I was thinking about this, like having a deeply integrated Grok and XAI integration in a Tesla is going to be amazing. There's so many times when I'm driving into the office and I'm talking to ChatGPT about, hey, here are some topics that I want to talk about. Can you do a deep research on this one? Just using the voice mode. And if that was integrated into a Tesla.

38:38So it's basically self-driving itself and you're just having a conversation with Grok. Okay. Today I got to, I got to talk to Jordy about the show. I got to pay this bill. I got to schedule a meeting and it's just cataloging. Yeah. Yeah. Just cataloging all of this. Oh, okay. You did legs yesterday, hit chest. Here's what you should do. I'm constantly in the car. I'm constantly in the car. You know, I spend enough time on the road, you know, these days because of all the traffic that if I get in the car for 90 minutes and I'm driving, I'm going to have 20 thoughts that I want to be able to execute on in that moment, but I end up having to like wait until I'm at a stoplight, write it down, keep going.

39:13And then I've built this huge backlog of tasks where if you can have this sort of omnipresent AI that says, Hey Grok, can you, uh, you know, call, uh, you know, uh, the cable company, I want to increase my, uh, I want to get fiber. I have like, you know, I want to upgrade my plan. It's like, that's an item you're checking off the to-do list. Exactly. And I'm sure your car, all your cars have some sort of voice recognition, but it's awful, right? It's like, call John. And it's like, oh, did you want me to, you know, call you a tow truck or whatever? It like always gets it wrong. No one ever uses it.

39:46Imagine if it's, if it's, you know, truly frontier best in class. And so the question is not, does spending a billion dollars on CapEx to train a frontier model, get you something that's a thousand times better than the competition. It's just, does it get you a valuable asset that then you can vend in and sell all over the place. And so can Elon sell Grok to ex premium members and make the money back there? Can he sell it into Tesla? Can he sell it into other things? Like, can he hook it up to Neuralink? Like, can he make money from the money he spent? That's the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

40:14This is capitalism, right? Anyway, so, you know, people are pouring cold water all over this. I mean, this is a tough timing too. So yeah, they're pouring cold water on it, calling it the first big failure of OpenAI. Meanwhile, poor Sam had his first kid like last week it's rough uh this guy and so gary marcus says a big surprise only to you and the many other open ai fans who refuse to listen to me when i patiently and endlessly explained that this would be exactly what would happen for the rest of us this was all but inevitable and so he's taking a victory lap but it's but it's odd because it's like okay like go do the thing then gary like go go do your approach like do the symbolic the symbol manipulation and or and beat them start a podcast he might he might um but yeah i mean it's easy to be a pessimist and say that approach isn't working like the like like the the starship isn't going to work to get us to mars i don't care build something better that will get us to mars then if you think the slingshot we were talking about to delian about this like if he wants to get there with a space plane he'll do that like i don't know i don't know i mean that's an obvious critique of gary but at the same time if you are highly uh researched on a specific topic you're an expert on that topic in many ways but gary you could argue he's an exited ai founder who's been talking about this for years yep he's perfectly entitled to have an opinion on the world changing technology that everybody else and and it's fine if he take i i think he can take a victory lap we're not we're not he's not trying to say that i can do it he he has been for years for years he was saying he was saying my approach is better than deep learning okay so he has that's why because he hasn't been advancing the ball on his thing it would be one thing if it was like so i think that they did this and then simple manipulation his approach outperforms and it's like oh my god he was right like we should have we were going going down the wrong path gary was right instead he's just saying like my their thing sucks but my thing really sucks yeah yeah okay which is kind of like my read on it but i don't know i mean still you know so he shouldn't he can't take a he can say hey as he's entitled to say i'm right yeah and open ai won't respond to this but if they they could or would or wanted to they would say cool like let's see your benchmarks exactly exactly he wouldn't sounds like he wouldn't have a good answer yeah well now he would say i'm out of the game i'm not i'm working on policy and stuff i'm not i'm not really building i'm not trying to compete in that but uh it is is a little frustrating because you know like the deep seek team over there they're making they're saying hey we have a slightly different approach and we're getting we're getting better performance with less investment i mean you know the actual investment's debatable but there were clearly some optimizations there where they where they got close to the frontier with obviously less than what it costs to train 4.5 and so uh i i'm much more i'm much more sympathetic to like a deep seek stand saying like hey the the best investment in uh in this technology in the next wave here is on the optimization side not on the scale side i i'm i'm receptive to that yeah but if you're just saying like this isn't working but also So like my thing is, okay.

43:34I was right, but I also failed. Anyway, let's move on. Let's close out with another attempt at humor. Dan Shipper says, GPT 4.5 is actually so effing funny. Be me, be Dan Shipper. Wake up at 5 a.m. Journal for 45 minutes about the dream I had last night. Dream was in second person, probably inspired by an obscure neuroscience paper I read last Tuesday. Brew coffee using beans handpicked by monks on a remote Guatemalan mountain. Sit down to write today's newsletter. Accidentally outline four new business ideas. Resist the temptation to launch them all by noon. Meditate. Feel mind literally expanding into previously undiscovered cognitive dimensions.

44:18Tweet an insight from my meditation session. Immediately gain 200 new subscribers. Open laptop to write an article on mental models. Realize the ultimate mental model was within me all along. It's only 9 a.m. uh why aren't you laughing i mean what's wrong i mean do you not understand the humor i mean go over your head jordy yeah it flew over my head because if you're if you don't if you can't tell the difference five and four you're you're not really like high iq yeah i mean claude actually got fed this and laughed yeah it actually played a laugh track that was its only response that's great so the models are making each other laugh yeah they're not making us laugh just yet i do think there's something cool about this i i think he had personalization model is actually sophisticated enough that it knows we'll laugh harder if it just delivers a terrible like a terrible joke yep and just botches it yeah and we go ha ha yeah you dumb model it it's uh yeah it's being sneaky behind the scenes hiding its power level yeah exactly secretly it could be the best it could put every comedian out of business yeah but it's like playing basketball with a kid Exactly.

45:25Oh, no, I dropped the ball. I guess you scored. Yeah, that's what it's doing. Yeah. Anyway, I'm glad he thought it was funny. What is interesting here is that this was personalized. So he fed it in his timeline or some more context around him. And so it clearly made jokes that were highly personalized to him. And I think that that is cool. And I think there is something there. And we've talked about this with the Grok stuff. It creates a more unique interaction, unique product, especially when I think the most relevant, again, won't be humor. It'll be research where it will know, hey, Jordy, you're an expert in angel investing and ads and entrepreneurship.

46:12So I don't need to explain to you what a safe is, but you're not an expert in mining, you know, rare minerals. So I'm going to break down. Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to explain to you in granular detail. Uh, okay. Lithium ion. Where does that come from? And I'm going to explain it to you like I'm five and then I'm going to go deeper and I'm going to work with you to understand where your knowledge is and get you up to speed really quickly. I think that's amazing. Um, anyway, well, one of the companies that I love that's implementing AI better than anybody else is of course ramp better than go to ramp.com time is money saved both easy to use corporate cards bill payments accounting and a whole lot more all in one place and it is i mean obviously i'm joking around but it is true uh ramp is a perfect place to to implement ai they uh when you take a picture of the receipt they get scanned of course an llm processes that and it's gotten so much better and it's the exact type of organization that you want to be with where they're i mean the cognition guys work there like they have they have an insane team that can go and look at whatever the frontier model is swap it in in two seconds they move very fast they move very quickly and so all the product just keeps compounding in a way that's you know great so yeah even from an invest you know from a company that you would potentially join there are companies out there that are just sort of boilerplate sass that maybe have a lot of revenue today like docusign but presumably over time will will be more like cable where some people keep paying but you know they get sort of replaced these sort of businesses that are more um you know this is for informational purposes only obviously but the businesses that are more uh in these sort of regulated spaces that require payment rails and banking licenses and stuff like that are super well positioned to implement ai for customers but um you know not not in the same way you you can't just you know uh use curse the the version of cursor in 10 years and generate ramp because banks are going to say i'm sorry you know we're not you know we we work with a smaller number of partners etc so yeah um and uh yeah i mean it's just great there's obviously a lot of larger companies more established companies that uh have been trying to implement ai mckinsey's printing money uh all of the all of the consultants are going around to every business here's how you can use ai ramp actually has like an obvious narrative here, which is, you know, receipt classification and iterating over your financials to get you more accurate data more quickly.

48:41Anyway, go check it out. A couple of comments before we jump into the next section. Vishal in the chat says, guys, react to Zelinsky versus Trump. I said, too political for us, Vishal. Look nasty, though. And he says, makes sense, Jordy. We don't need another all in, which is a great point. We're trying to hold the line on politics. People, you know, I will ask you to cover politics because they get a lot of attention, but we are a technology and business show. Yeah, we are firmly. I mean, my my answer on Zelensky versus Trump, I see Trump as the founder of Truth Social more than the president.

49:14I mean, that's something he does politics, but we're interested in him as a consumer software founder. Right. I think they're arguing about the minds. And so once we once we hear Zelensky's business acumen, then we can comment. but in terms of the politics stuff, not really interesting to us. So Calder says watching John get better at transitions is like watching Tiger Woods practices swing. So thank you better every day, every day. Eventually you won't know if it's an ad. Yeah. It's all blended together. It's going to be perfectly well, Calder. We'll have to have you on the show. And when we have you on the show, we'll have you call in not via Skype, but via zoom or FaceTime because Skype is out of business.

49:55They're shutting it down. breaking news here on the show we're actually breaking this news it broke it broke earlier elsewhere but we're breaking it on the show uh shiel monat says end of an era uh and says exclusive uh microsoft is finally shutting down skype in may it's the end of an era uh skype could have been whatsapp plus zoom in one but it was a terrible balmer ask my balmer era microsoft acquisition for$8.5 billion. Let's go. Historical size. Yeah. So it was maybe terrible for Microsoft, but it was fantastic for the Skype shareholders. Yes. And so we should celebrate that. Yes. And one of, so Skype, fascinating story.

50:39I'm sure they took that illiquid, you know, they got the returns from the illiquid Skype stock, rolled it into other illiquid assets that have since, you know, multiplied. Hey, you're getting ahead. We got the whole breakdown right here. Great. 2003 company founded in estonia by the founders of kazaa which was which was a competitor to napster if you're familiar uh the p2p file sharing service used to pirate music i was using kazaa back then that was fun download some corn tracks or limbiscuit albums it was fantastic this is like the best era of the internet the kazaa money meant i got run over by a truck in 2003 really yeah wait what are you i'm actually kidding wait what do you mean you got run over this is some lore i got run over by an off-duty ambulance driver who was uh driving a pickup truck is this why you can't bench three plates yet yes that's exactly why they i was actually i went you know got taken in a real ambulance to the hospital and they said you know your son's fine but he's never going to be able to bench three plates oh and that stuck with me it put a chip on my shoulder well when you do it you know we're gonna be i'm gonna prove i'm wrong i'm not gonna listen to that doctor back in 2003 i'm gonna you know do the impossible yeah once you do it we're gonna saber open a bottle of don pairing on and saber open a bottle of uh protein shake perfect shug that perfect so they didn't need to raise 2003 2005 they have 54 million users 7 million in revenue and for 60 million in 05 they're printing just yeah estonia's got to be a great place to start an illegal peer to peer file sharing platform.

52:13Very fast internet there. Do you know this story? So Estonia's Eastern Bloc used to be part of the US. Is that where a lot of the VPNs are? I don't know if there's that many, but there are some fantastic entrepreneurs there. So they break away from Russia and they invest very, very heavily in the internet. They get very, very high internet speeds. And so they have tons of kids that get online and learn all sorts of stuff. Very early in my YouTube career, I had a research assistant who was an Estonian guy. He was obsessed with Estonia and was always like, we should cover this Estonian story. And I'm like, I don't know if I should do another Estonia thing, but I like where your head's at, kid.

52:50But I did do one on Bolt and the founder of that company, which is an Uber competitor. And the kid built this business into billions and billions of dollars, kind of Uber for the rest of the world and has been fantastically successful. And I think one of his angel investors was this guy, Jan, who was a founder of Skype, who got a bunch of money out of Skype and became a big investor. And that guy also invested in FTX very early on. He's a fascinating character. So he's been all over Silicon Valley. And so in 2005, they get acquired by eBay for 2.6 billion. eBay claimed it would help buyer-seller communication, but that never made sense to Shiel.

53:32And eBay wrote it down by 1.7 billion in 2007. By 2009, they have 400 million users, 100 million DAUs, and $700 million in revenue. And so 65 % of Stripe gets acquired by Silver Lake A16Z, CPPIB, and Index for $1.9 billion, valuing the company at$2.75 billion. A16Z wrote a$50 million check out of their $300 million first fund. People thought they were crazy for investing in a late-stage private equity deal. That is crazy. And I remember that being on their portfolio page and I didn't realize that they did it post acquisition, which is very, very rare for VC. So in 2011 - Yeah, but it's sort of some interesting lore given that they've turned into more of this sort of multi-stage asset manager that resembles a private equity - Started back in 2009.

54:27They've They've been in the game for 16 years in these odd deals. So if you're out there saying, oh, they're completely pivoting their model, maybe not. Maybe they've cut their teeth. Yeah, they didn't return the fund, even though it was a good outcome, but certainly got some of the way there. Yeah, I mean, they invested at 2.75, and they sold it at 8.5. So 3X, they probably got 150 mil out on that$50 million check. But that's a$300 million fund, so they returned half the fund on that deal, which is pretty good. And it was just two years. So by 2011, they're at 600 million users, 170 million MAUs, 1 billion in revenue.

55:05Ballmer buys it for 8.5. They probably recycled the investment and just reinvested that, the 3X and potentially got. Exactly. So A16Z looks really smart with early DPI. And so this is their first fund. And they're saying, hey, you gave us 300. We already got 150 back. We got a bunch of other bangers in here. Let's do the second fund, the third fund, the growth fund, the dynamism fund, all these different things. At Balmer era, Microsoft innovation slowed. Skype never really made the move from desktop to mobile. Skype had poor UI, technical debt, and never got much mobile adoption. Meanwhile, Zoom was founded in 2011 and WhatsApp took off.

55:41WhatsApp has$2.5 billion and is probably worth at least 100 billion. Yeah, that sounds right. Zoom has 300 million, is worth 25 billion. Still blows my mind that Zoom trades lower than it did pre-pandemic when it had fewer users. It went from 10 million to 300 million. Another interesting tidbit. Zoom only had 10 million users pre-pandemic? Yeah, it was small. But then Google was way, way behind. And there were a bunch of problems that actually Google internally was using Hangouts because they're like, wait, we got a dog food our product. But once they went remote, everyone was like, this is awful.

56:14It's breaking all the time. We can't get 50 people in there who are crashing. So what's the choice? We either fix to this problem or we go to Zoom and there's this story about they put all their best engineers on it. Even like the AI guys came in for a couple of days and we're like, okay, let's figure out what's going on. Let's optimize this. Let's go deep seek mode on this. And it is wild. I have zero, you know, I have so many memories using Skype as a kid playing Starcraft, other video games. Having Skype would be something that I would get home from school. You know, I'd finish soccer practice or something like that.

56:46I would turn it on and it would just be on almost until basically until dinner or sometimes even later, you know, doing, you know, homework, hanging out. This was... I used a lot of these. IRC. Were you using Skype when you were... Gaming? No, in your early part of your career. A little bit. Actually, I was trying to make a joke about you being old. I mean, yeah, Skype was the thing. Yeah, you would Skype with someone. Definitely in college, Skype was like the default. it was like the best video chatting platform for sure uh yeah but the other interesting tidbit is tony bates game boys over skype uh it was actually uh pong that was the one nice yeah pong yeah and uh and a lot of telegraphs you know the beep beep beep beep beep beep like that was the main thing if you wanted to raise money get on skype and practice here exactly exactly i'm a beast at Morse code.

57:44Yeah, Morse code. And carrier pigeons, obviously. Yeah, yeah. From time to time. A lot of scrolls passing around on horseback. This is kind of the vibe. Back when, you know, draft dodging, trying to not go to Vietnam. This is like where I cut my teeth. Classic stuff. Exactly. Tony Bates, the CEO of Skype at the acquisition by Microsoft, was considered a rising star at Microsoft and was actually one of the top folks considered to be in the running for CEO of Microsoft but left once Nadella got the gig. Anyway, fun to look down memory lane. I use Skype a lot in my life. I use Skype regularly until 2018 because it was the industry norm for one of my companies.

58:20In 2018, they started requiring Microsoft login and they lost many of the users they had left. And then he did add a correction. Skype 1.0 did raise VC dollars. They raised 18.8 million from DFJ Index, Mangrove and Bessemer a year before they got acquired for 2.6 billion. Mangrove was the first investor and got 100X on the deal in two years. And so you had a story about like a pen pal on Skype. What was your experience with Skype? Uh, no, I would just use it while playing Starcraft. And I just remember a bunch of my friends after school would get on Skype because I grew up in wine country and everybody was super spread out.

59:01So if your parents weren't going to drive you around, you just kind of had to go home after school and get online. And so if you wanted to get a bunch of your Skype friends together out in wine country for a long weekend at a nice house, what would you do? Well, I'd go to Wander.com, of course. Fantastic. And you'd find your happy place? happy place find your happy place find your happy place find your happy place find your happy place thank you to tyler for the recommendation he said uh next time you do a wonder ad jingles for sure to sing it for sure yeah flip that book a wonder with inspiring views hotel great amenities dreamy beds and top tier cleaning and 24 7 concierge service it's a vacation home but better folks what's not to like and we got a post from kyle tibbitts over at wander he says international expansion has kicked off at wander with pins popping up on the map and new places like quebec cabo and costa rica stay tuned for more i never leave the united states but if you do good luck to you book a wander while you're abroad you are really america pilled and i'm so america try not to leave at all i'm not leaving you're gonna have to drag me out i'm not leaving i'm not leaving but fortunately there are hundreds of wanders in the united states and i'm going to visit all of them yep i'm going to i'm going to drive to all 50 states i'm going to checking it twice i'm going to go to stay in every single wander in america and then i'm sure i'll see some videos of people in the issue is they added they added a hundred in the last month so if you were trying to go to every wander and they keep this place yeah three never you'd have to be doing three a day you wouldn't even three to actually get to spend the night in every single one but you just pop in, you know, remote, unlock it, jump in.

1:00:43And anyways, but the pace is ridiculous. And we got some more news. We got some more news. Some really breaking news. This shook the tech industry. We're the first tech and business media company to break this. This shook the tech industry, I would say more than any of the AI news. This was the biggest story this week, maybe this month. I think we're going to look back on 2025 and say, this was the year of Sam Sulek getting his IFBB pro card. And so Cody Maines says, extremely niche tweet for my fellow gym bros, but Sam Sulek earning an IFBB pro card in his second ever show is one of the coolest things I've seen in a long time.

1:01:17He's 23 years old. He's got no coach. He documented every step of his journey on YouTube and he's a certified freak. Look at that man. That is the pinnacle of excellence. And we got another post from Zach. He says, Sam Sulek is the ultimate example of obsession. He just became an IFBB pro. He was looking absolutely diced, grainy. He was peeled. It was fantastic. Winning first two bodybuilding shows. He posted daily YouTube videos for two years, documenting every single workout. He gained 4 million subscribers. This is what it takes. Apply this mentality to your goals. And I really think we are the Sam Sulek of tech and business podcasting in the sense that we post every single day.

1:01:58And it's silly. And you can look at this and say, oh, he's just some bodybuilder, he's just some vlogger, whatever. But there is a lesson in here about the obsession mentality and just doing things daily and improving daily over time. You see it with, why is Jake Paul big? You might not like his content, but he posted, it's everyday bro. He literally posted a blog every single day for years. Yeah, there's something about a coach, what a coach often provides as much as advice. Advice is free on the internet you go get advice anywhere it's infinitely available a coach provides accountability and so sam by just sharing every single workout has the accountability of hundreds of thousands or millions of people right they're gonna say you didn't push yourself as hard as you could there right and they're gonna call them out on it and it's and it's part of the part of the program um but uh but yeah i think it's i think it's people with his uh 3d renders he posted a new 3d render every single day for something like 10 years.

1:02:57I think Joe Rogan, a famous thought leader had a quote that was something to the effect of how would you live your life if you, if your life was, you know, a movie, right. And you had, you knew that you had an audience, right. You probably would, wouldn't doom scroll and you would go to bed early because, you know, your main character, you're a hero, right. You'd get snug, snuggle up in your eight sleep and you'd crash, you'd get that good sleep score. Um, but, uh, but yeah, there's this idea of like, how would you work out in the gym if, if you actually had an audience, right? And a lot of people just go through the motions in their life.

1:03:32They don't take it very seriously, but take your life seriously. Sam takes his life seriously. He's 23 IFBB pro. He's completely natural to future, future terminator. I'm really pushing for that. That's our, uh, that's our 2025, 2026 goal please reboot terminator cast sam sulik the the lines will be around the block at every theater in america truly it actually would be a blockbuster it would be an absolute blockbuster and it's a perfect movie where you don't need it's it's about the ridiculousness of it you don't need the best actor no and that's the thing if you do the full reboot the first terminator arnold still was working on his english and his acting i'm pretty sure and so he's the bad guy and he doesn't really say that much he's actually like the monster so most of what he's doing is just marching and shooting and stuff he's not really delivering that many lines then by the second one they like reboot him and he becomes the good terminator yeah plays into all the ai stuff i would totally watch it the terminator franchise really really cool but it's gone downhill with all these like kind of shoddy spin-offs and we're in like series seven go get uh james cameron back can you believe that's a james cameron movie that's crazy uh get sam sulik get james cameron get in the same room uh and make a great terminator reboot i would absolutely watch that crazy to think that if uh james cameron didn't didn't survive his reading and driving era remember he was driving trucks while reading uh very very uh sketchy but uh we would never have terminator and we would never maybe titanic avatar we would never have sam sulik uh cast as terminator yeah well if you're thinking about going for your IFBB pro card, you know that sleep is the number one way to increase your testosterone naturally.

1:05:19And yeah, maybe you're competing in the naturals. And if you want to get great sleep, we recommend getting an eight sleep. I would love if someone in our community actually went to be a bodybuilder. We would put the full force of the brotherhood behind them. and we'd even pay off judges and stuff like that. Yeah, do whatever it takes. Whatever it took. And so 8 Sleep, of course, it's nights that fuel your best days. Turn any bed into the ultimate sleeping experience. Go to 8sleep.com slash TBPN to check it out. What's your sleep score? Ooh, I don't know. It might've been a rough night. I actually had a rough night too.

1:05:568 Sleep, the app. My rough night is your best. You got me beat a couple of days. Oh, what you got? I got a 91. Yeah, you beat me. Yes. I got an 86. Okay. I got 645. I just didn't put the time into it. Quality wasn't great. Routine wasn't quite on point, but we're getting better. I had to pick someone up early this morning, earlier than usual. It's a journey. We'll be talking about soon. Well, let's go to some launches. By the way, we got to mention it. We have a link in the YouTube, and we have a code. Just the code is tbpn or 8sleep.com slash tbpn. Get a few hundred dollars off your 8sleep. and you can enter the challenge and try to beat us on our sleep scores.

1:06:40Yep, fantastic. Well, let's go to some launches. We got Splash Robotics coming out of Y Combinator. They are building unmanned patrol boats to defend our nation's critical infrastructure and secure our borders. They're able to autonomously detect and intercept threats faster than any human operator. I love stuff like this. You know, all the memes are like, I guess we're doing boats now. I guess we're doing military technology. and I saw someone reacting to this like did the DOD just take over YC or something but this is the perfect hack project for a YC team to go build I'm so I'm so happy with these types of projects is this this is a Serana competitor probably at some scale but you know with these YC companies like who knows like they're so early that they could wind up finding some little niche here and there it's very unclear that it's like yeah this is a real shot across the bow to the billion dollar company that is like working with the DoD, this could be something that goes into Coast Guard or responds to an entirely different program area.

1:07:41It could wind up being something that's more commercial focused. It could be something that gets aqua hired or merged into another company. It's just a bunch of people building some cool stuff. And so I'm here for it. One of my favorite YouTube channels is this guy, H.I. Sutton, who's a defense analyst. You know, this guy it's he just talks about naval warfare and he makes these like one-shot monologue videos about oh this is great interesting tech okay so he'll basically start the video and being like yeah i didn't really people have said oh get a better microphone get a camera all this stuff not doing it just making this video and his videos are super engaging great he just nerds out about you can go uh watch this video essential guide to 2024 naval warfare in the black sea and so it'll talk about yeah this guy and it'll talk about all the ways that they're using uh you know autonomous uh technologies and so splash robotics i wouldn't be surprised if they're using his videos to inform their product development because they talk about how uh they'll they'll actually take jet skis and turn them into sort of these uh remote control bombs and you know eventually would potentially be autonomous so cool cool to nerd out on awesome well congrats to the team and let us know how it goes.

1:08:53Let's move on to Brendan Uribe, the former co-founder of Oculus VR with Palmer Luckey. He has a new company called Sesame. He says, we're exploring a future where the computer isn't just a tool. It's a partner with a truly natural voice and personality. No big claims, just early work we're excited to share. And a bunch of people were shouting this out. Toby looky the founder and ceo of shopify uh said man sesame's voice model is absolutely insane you have got to try this demo and post the link still puts up 1k likes let's see it built different you'd love to see someone include a link and still do numbers i love it try to play it i don't know for the kunj also says this is the most her moment i've felt in the last few years it's truly uncanny recommend trying this now.

1:09:44But in the comments, Gaurav Vora says, what am I missing? This felt trash. And Nikun just says, what? So a little bit of different experiences. You just got to go try it for yourself. I don't think we're going to pull it up, but it seems like a cool chat-focused, voice-focused AI tool. So excited for them to launch that. And we recommend that you go make your own decision about whether or not you like it or not. But speaking of AI, uh we got a post from cushy she says uh where is cursor for figma and you got an answer is cursor for figma that's true uh you've been talking with the team over there yep uh they got some big big plans in the works yeah it's really shocking that a founder mode ceo who's a teal fellow and has been in the game just got a billion dollar breakup fee yeah billion dollar breakup fee and has been studying this stuff for a billion dollars non-diluted financing he's actually heard of AI, you know, and he's been on the same timeline that we've been on.

1:10:44And so he is well aware of it and building plenty of tools to make Figma easier to use and more diffuse, both on the prompt to design side, and then also deployment into actual app. Obviously, you can imagine where Figma goes on either side of the design program. They built this great network. They built this great core design tool that's very, very rich, very deep. It makes a ton of sense that they would extend in both directions. I think Figma should ultimately do this sort of quarterly release model. I think they have more release than someone like a Flexport, right? They need to be dominating sort of timelines.

1:11:21And it's highly visual. Yeah, it's highly visual. It's very cool. And so having them switch and really start to push, you know, having Dylan push the team to say, we are going to be shipping, you know, these sort of, uh, incredible advancements in the product every single quarter, uh, would be cool to see. I was thinking about this. Like, uh, have you ever seen those like, uh, pictures where people use MS paint and then they paint like the Mona Lisa and it's like the most incredible thing or they do art in Microsoft Excel. I really want to see an account pop up. That's like Figma abuse basically where someone builds like the Sistine chapel in figma and it's like pixel perfect and it's just like with the individual pixels yeah exactly exactly so just having someone there obsessively abuse figma to do something that it can do but it was certainly not designed to do i think that is highly viral potential and yeah in the age of ai generated images yeah i want the art artisan designer to be making a an image pixel by pixel i want to see the time lapse with the face cam hand colored hand painted exactly uh go and do it we'll cover it here live it's great well let's move on to weber who says introducing flora your intelligent canvas every creative ai tool thoughtfully connected we built flora uh florafana ai side by side with creative professionals from art students to designers at top agencies like pentagram to give them speed control and collaboration in one seamless system this feels like figma adjacent potentially is that right yeah um we built a library of creative Workflows from cinematic storyboarding to typography variations designed by creatives with taste.

1:12:57It still feels more oriented around generating things like copy and images versus design, but I'm sure they're thinking about it. Yeah, like less prosumer, less professional, and maybe more like, what's that other design tool? Visual electric? No, the one that's the Australian girl runs. You know who I'm talking about? How do we not? How am I blanking on this? It's worth like billions, right? You know what I'm talking about, right? Canva. Canva. I was going to say, if you search design tool, it will be the first result. Yeah, but Canva was always like a little bit more consumer, like make a meme, make a postcard, make an invite.

1:13:35And then it's gone kind of up market. Figma has been more of like what the best designers in the world use. And now they're going a little bit more down market to something where an individual programmer could use it. And this feels a little bit more like pop in, make something. and they're starting with something that's a little bit more organic UGC driven than, hey, we're plugging this right into Enterprises on day one. They've built a library of creative workflows from cinematic storyboarding to typography variations. These workflows could save weeks of iteration to get access. Repost the first post above and comment Flora.

1:14:09That's hilarious. Little algorithm hacking on your launch video. 1 ,000 reposts and 3 ,000 likes. half a million views. Very smart. You don't see that as much. You see that on when people release podcasts on Instagram now, they'll say comment for the link, you know, uh, and I'll DM you the link. Right. And it's sort of a way to just hack the algorithm to think that there's a ton of interest in, in a post, but clearly there was a bunch of real interest here and, uh, go watch the demo. It's very cool how they, you know, link these models together. And this feels something, closer to Cognition or Devin for me and that if they can own the workflow as the underlying models get better and they're connecting them in different ways to generate final outputs, they'll be well positioned and their product will improve as the underlying models get better.

1:15:00Yeah. Well, it's cool to see people exploring new tools and yeah, love to play with that and see if we can generate some content for the show with it or something. Let's play around with it. Well, anyway, let's move on to the timeline. which has been in turmoil. Vishal in the chat just asked for this. So his timing was perfect. Fantastic. Paki McCormick says, Anderle versus Jason Calacanis, who you got? And a lot of people are sounding off in the comments. Reggie in the comments. Yeah. Drone strike his ASS. Now we're talking. Well, I've got the popcorn. And so this all started with, there's been news just in the world that there might be some Epstein files coming out, some Epstein leaks or something.

1:15:40Palmer posts a picture of the black book with Jason Calacanis' phone numbers listed there. I guess this is a Rolodex from the late Mr. Epstein. But this is actually old news. This broke years ago. This is not to be confused with the client list. Exactly. Yes, yes, yes. Although it doesn't necessarily make, it certainly doesn't make Jason look good. Yeah, but there are lots of people in the black book because they met him for any sort of reason. In this case, they had at least four of his phone numbers. So it sounds like... It looks like three or three in an address, right? I think. But yeah, so obviously they met and Matt Grimm quote tweets Palmer and says, this is the face you make when your weekend just got a little bit more complicated.

1:16:33We see you, Jason. So the Andrew guys are really coming for J-Cal. Well, and Jason responded, he says, and now Matt Grimm, Palmer Luckey's partner, is using a Photoshop photo of me being twice as fat as I ever was and trying to slander me by insinuating I was involved with Epstein. Matt knows full well that I wasn't, that I've said I wasn't, and that there is no news here. So the issue here, just double-clicking on the Photoshop thing, is how do we know this is Photoshop? It doesn't even, if you were going to go to the lengths of Photoshopping a picture, you would maybe take it a bit further. I would say, because he looks, yeah, sure.

1:17:09Like those J.D. Vance ones where he's like full red, or like the Giga Chad one. Yeah, yeah. Take it a little bit further. This is just very believable. The other thing is, you know, Jason has been vocal about being on his MPEG and these things, and he used to have some extra weight on him. So the issue with Jason is he does tend to say things that aren't true from time to time. And so I do believe there's some factually correct things in here related to this not being the client list. Totally. Things like that. But at the same time, I kind of think it might be a real pick. I think it might be a real pick.

1:17:44Yeah, yeah, yeah. And Ted in the 1990s, I am in his black book, which has been out for over a decade. That's true. And has hundreds of other Ted tech finance New Yorkers in it. What is Ted? Yeah. So, so it is a real picture. So a few, a few of the guys in the chat, uh rory uh heskell and brian yeah uh matt actually has a screenshot of the source he pulled it okay okay that is a real photo uh jason i mean we we respect we respect someone who's uh looking great now yeah he's looking younger than ever he's getting diced he's on his epic and i see an ifbb pro card potentially in the future you know this one's not looking great but he's looking better now keep going apologize to palmer jason clean up the relationship and then hit the gym go subscribe to sam sulik yeah go subscribe to sam sulik the information is all there arnold classic he basically open sourced i'm not asking him to go open people have been people have been people have been investing in creators i'd like to see jason calacanis's launch yeah invest in you know give you know invest in sam so like i would kill to be in that i would i would actually that's a great deal.

1:18:50I would kill for that. We should try to put that together. John would kill somebody to get allocation. Oh man, I think he's going to be extremely successful. I'm super bullish on Sam Sulek. And so, yeah, a little bit of spicy timeline today. We love the Andrel folks. We love J. Cal. There is one problem that we need to address, which is the fact that Jason Calacanis still does not run ads on the All In podcast. And that, I think, is his real crime. You have to imagine with the All In and turmoil now, you have to imagine he's seeing a window to potentially get some ads on there, right? People, Sax is out of the picture.

1:19:29Do you think Epstein is the reason why he doesn't run ads? Do you think that's what Epstein told him? Say, hey, my final wish to you. Don't run ads on your podcast. I know we weren't that close. I know you never came to the island. Yeah. But just please, whatever you do, don't run ads. Don't run ads. and Jason maybe just wants to respect. It seems like they were maybe, they certainly were friendly. His dying wish. They certainly were friendly. We don't know if they were friends. Yeah, yeah, yeah. They were definitely acquaintances. I think J. Kyle has the chance to turn it all around, apologize to Palmer, clean up the relationship, and then run some ads for Anderle.

1:20:04It really is a stain on Jason. It's rough. It's rough. And we know that Palmer does have the ability to turn the other cheek. You know, he was going after Zuck and Meta and Facebook for a long time. And they cleaned that up. They cleaned up that relationship. Something happened. Things changed. And they clearly, you know, had a conversation. Palmer went and looked at the Orion headset, said, hey, this is great. You know? Yeah. And so I would love to see that turn around because I hate when the big dogs in tech are fighting. I don't like it. I hate to see it. Yeah, I hate to see it. I hate to see it.

1:20:41technology, podcasters and industry, podcasters and founders should never fight. Never, never. Anyway. Uh, well, if you love Jason Calacanis, don't work at Anderle, I guess. Uh, Devin Luton says crazy Anderle campaign. That's an amazing extension. I want to see an ad quick billboard that says, if you love Jason Calacanis, you'll hate working. You'll hate working at Anderle. Yeah. If you're listening to this week in startups, probably don't work at Anderil because, yeah, it'll be rough for you. But they have a crazy Anderil campaign here at Boston South Station. They put up a bunch of different posters.

1:21:20They're literally obsessed with America, don't work at Anderil. They have the graffiti, some great design going on, and people are loving the advertisements. And if you're looking to do some out of home, we recommend adquick.com, baby. Out of home advertising made easy and measurable. Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. What's an AdQuick line that we can say? AdQuick. Only AdQuick combines technology. AdQuick enables you to launch hyper-targeted out-of-home campaigns. We're still working on that one. We're still workshopping that. But it combines technology, out-of-home expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe.

1:21:57Go to adquick.com to check it out. They work with a bunch of fantastic companies too. If you work with AdQuick, you're working with Shopify, Carvana, DoorDash, Poshmark, Wow. Butcher Box, Ramp, Wall Street Journal, Warby Parker, Discount Tire, the H &R Block, Lyft, Instacart, Compass, Basecamp, Equinox, Pluto TV, DuckDuckGo, Nike, NFL, Amazon, Drizzly, GoPuff. They got all the big dogs up there. Go be a big dog. Run some out of home ads with AdQuick. And you can follow Chris on X. He said, hey, Elon Musk, look at this. And it's a post from someone flagging the fact that Google is buying Apple search ads on the Grok term.

1:22:43It's just too beautiful a circle of life for me. Google is buying Apple search ads on Grok term. Hey, you wanted this extremely politically incorrect LLM. How about the most politically correct one? Do you want the opposite? Yeah. And so, yeah. I didn't actually know. I don't know how I didn't know Google had a Gemini app. We talked about this. They spun it out because it was so hard to find because I was complaining. They listened to me. I was complaining about how I paid all this money and I couldn't get to Gemini. Although I'm sure when I download the app, who knows what model I'll be on. And the model probably won't even tell me what model I'm on and what the context window will be.

1:23:19But that's not how people use these things. And so they say, unlock the power of Google AI on your phone. You search for Grok, you get Google Gemini. Don't make the mistake. You know, be sharp, don't get fooled. If you're looking for Grok sexy mode, you're not gonna find it in Google Gemini. Let's go to Brent Leong, who we've been doing some work with. We love this guy. He says, the lean startup thinking has probably done more harm than good. Lots of low conviction, three-month pivots, and folding based on an abysmally small sample size. Encourages being neurotic and constantly skeptical, almost the opposite of being an entrepreneur.

1:23:56what do you think Jordy I mean the thing that yeah I think the lead like the whole thing the best thing you can do if you're early in your startup journey is just read all the books read zero to one read the lean startup founders podcast founders podcast I think founders podcast is advice or wisdom that's more timeless right where Dave the center is not saying you need to fully follow the McDonald's founder and just do what they said. He's just saying this is his approach to work, learn from it, take it, apply it. I read the lean startup back in the day. I think it's this fine line between sometimes if you're willing to just persevere and look stupid and be okay with the fact that you don't have traction and just keep pushing forward trying to get it.

1:24:45Sometimes you get paid off, you know, you get paid for it. If you look at, you know, uh crypto founders the ones that have been successful have not followed this approach for the most part they've sort of just said uh you know they stayed stayed lean but more so they're willing to look stupid for two years so that when the market rips yeah they look like a genius right um and so it's definitely uh this is a vintage post i think we're now seeing if you're going and building in hard tech, for example, you can't afford to follow purely the lean startup approach. It's, it's, it's a model that I think works really well for PMF or die style products, where it just says, you know, intense focus, stay really lean, you know, um, but, uh, but yeah, it's not going to work if you're trying to build Andrel, right.

1:25:33You need to have this sort of bold, ambitious plan and be very patient and executed over many, many years. And, um, you know, realize that you could do years of work before being paid for it. And that's part of the game. Yeah, I think this is, the lean startup thinking has kind of mutated a little bit. Like the original idea of the lean startup was just that in the dot-com era, in order to build a website, you had to raise$10 million and build a data center. Like I remember as a kid, like my dad worked at a startup. You hand-built some of those data centers. And I literally did. I would rack servers as like a summer job.

1:26:09and this was just for like a company with a website you gotta when when when we're you know 60 and and some and on posters in the comments you know you chirping at you you say i was i was racking servers when i was your age diapers yeah uh but it's true like like the default the default path to building even just a website like we want to build a car a car auction website or we want to build any startup it was raise 10 million dollars because you are going to need to buy servers hire a lot of different people because there are not these abstraction layers of aws there's no cursor there's not even python like yeah the code needs to be written in java or c plus plus well what happens when you write in java and c plus you need five times as many people because everything takes longer to write and so um so the lean startup was just getting the word out that it is possible to now build a company in a lower cost, lower capex intensive way.

1:27:11And that was true. Yeah. He basically just coined what was happening in some circles and said, you know, this is a way, but it's founder mode, right? Where founder mode didn't have a name. Exactly. And then, but people kind of were aware that certain companies just operated, you know, and CEOs just operated differently. Yeah. And, and so people were, he was just saying like, Hey, we don't need these$10 million seed rounds. to build websites anymore. You can build on top of these services and stay lean. And then once you find traction, talk to your customers, get out of the building. These were all these ideas of like, don't go and waste all this money and do a$10 million experiment, do a$1 million experiment.

1:27:50But I agree with Brent that pivoting every three months, folding based on an abysmally low sample size, that is wrong. You should make sure that you really tested things, actually understand the product. And ideally, you have a ton of conviction about the direction that the company is going before you even start. So you're like, yeah, the first three months have been rough, but I still know that there's an insight here. I still know that there's some fundamental value of what I'm creating. Anyway, let's move on to Rohit. He says, excellent portrait of Tyler Cowen in The Economist. Lots of known beats, but this is the most underrated part.

1:28:24And so The Economist did a whole profile in Tyler Cowen. I highly recommend you go check it out. But I love this quote. He says, Cowan's emotional life remains a mystery. He told me he did not experience regret. I don't know what the function of it is, he said. Is it to signal thoughtfulness, to stop you making further mistakes? It's like revenge. I don't understand it. Cowan also said he doesn't understand envy or anger. He didn't know what he should be envious of. He didn't get lonely by himself or in company. He actually said, why bother? when he told me he had never been depressed i asked him to clarify what he meant he'd never been clinically depressed depressed for a month for a week an afternoon i looked up from my notebook an enormous smile one i had not seen before spread across the whole of cowan's face like for a whole afternoon he asked hugely grinning just mogged uh so on the on the topic of our earlier subject gpt45 tyler cowan was quoted today saying i'm more positive on 45 than almost anyone else i have read i view it as a model that attempts to improve on the dimension of aesthetics only as we know from con's third critique that is about the hardest achievement possible yeah and so somebody did the be me prompt uh so be me tyler cowan yeah wake up at 5 23 a.m precisely eat exactly seven blueberries three brazil nuts and a quarter cup of icelandic skier sky sky productivity.jpg write two blog posts one on obscure romanian cinema the other on the economics of parking meters check email reply exclusively in lowercase very interesting thanks for this send perhaps send attend breakfast meeting with unnamed intelligence officials discuss singaporean food stalls instead of geopolitics yep uh lunchtime arrives ask waiter what is your least popular dish waiter visibly confused what's your least popular dish recommend some fermented herring special wonderful i'll have that extra spicy genuinely enjoy it back to office podcast guest waiting it's a chess grandmaster who's also an amateur botanist and former dj that's great so i actually think this is like pretty that's pretty good and and that's just like so many different threads pulling all together like there must be a lot of different data in the training model if you're pulling all that together because some of that stuff you really have to you know follow all of his blog posts all of his tweets all of his podcast transcripts to understand that or talk to him in person to really get that flavor so yeah good job uh now maybe potentially underrated maybe the early haters are wrong we'll see we'll see as it rolls out either way it's just nice to have a more aesthetic model i think that's good even if it's not there's actually maybe even a better outcome if it's just a nicer friendlier more more aesthetic experience uh it doesn't necessarily need to be 190 iq solve that generally what carpathy was kind of alluding to just said differently which was if you're a high taste tester you're going to notice the difference here if you're a low b uh you know uh word cell you're you know you're going to maybe miss i need to we need to try the be me prompt and maybe that should be the new prompt see how me golden retriever start day jordy hayes run around the house bark a little bit turbo s.png put on sunglasses indoors it's great uh well we got a post from katherine boyle uh jd vance is going to be headlining the american dynamism summit next month this is coachella forget for tech bros that like guns yes and coachella for tech bros that don't like guns have gavener gavin newsom and dr chelsea Clinton at the upfront summit.

1:32:05And so this is the opposite of the all in summit says Chris Fralick. Wait, Chelsea Clinton has a venture fund? Metro Dora venture fund? What? I didn't know that. How are we not? We've said before we would never raise a round. Yes, yes, yes. Also, when did she get her doctorate? Metro Dora venture. Interesting. Anyway, yeah, upfront summit happened this week. It was very popular. I think Delian stopped by. Some other people texted me that they were in town. Yeah, so she has a values-conscious venture capital firm investing in health and learning. Huh. Maybe she could back the PMF or DAI founders.

1:32:42That'd be great. They also don't want to raise, but, you know, ventures about value add more than capital. I bet you, doctor... What were the values that she cares about? Health and learning. Oh, she should back Sam Sulik. He's all about health. That's so true. That's so true. He's the pinnacle of health. Look at a picture of him. Didn't Uptrunt try to get Sam Sulik, but he just was busy? They got Chameleon Air a long time ago. Did you know that? Yeah, they've had a... They had a star-studded lineup. It was very fun. I think Andreessen had Nas, and then Upfront had Chameleonair. And so you'd hop on a call, and Chameleonair would just be hanging out with you, talking sass.

1:33:15Talking sass. Great. Anyway, speaking of the PMF for Dye, guys, let's go to Blake. He says, standards I have for new employees slash partners. Work 12-plus hours a day. Make massive sacrifices. Desire to pay their dues. Won't break under pressure. These are 100 % within one's control. so the the key here yep is it's perfectly fine for a leader to say this if they live all those things blake is you can go on pmf or die dot xyz which is not our website and see exactly how much he's working yep tracked uh every single second of the day he's making massive sacrifices he's not leaving the cage for 90 you know potentially 90 days paying his dues potentially ever he hasn't broken under pressure he hasn't broken under pressure i mean there was a lot of anything happened there's a lot of pressure week one the thing the thing we didn't fully calculate with the cage is that there would be hundreds of people basically you know demanding that uh demanding attention in the chat so we'll get to talk about that we're actually going to be doing a press conference on the pmf4dive stream uh at 1 p.m uh pacific uh in just 30 minutes so we gotta we gotta check on him because if pmf4dive.xyz shows blake in the seat for 11 hours 59 minutes It's not going to look good for him.

1:34:32Yeah. He's got to be that. He's got to work cell number 17. He's got to be operating at full capacity. Totally. Let's go to Elon Musk. He's quote tweeting someone who is doing another AI game dev demo. He says, wow, this is cool. Danny says, I believe that Grok can be a serious tool to build quality games. I've been pushing the limits of Grok 3 by having it code this retro Doom inspired gothic shooter from scratch. It's been less than 24 hours of work, and I think I got it to a pretty good place, and the demo's pretty cool. But yeah, there's another post in here that I wanted to highlight that was fun about how if you want to go viral, the best way is to code a game right now and screen share the video.

1:35:19Let me see if I can find that one. You're self-building the game. You build the game. And then play it? And then you... Build it, play it, build it, play it. Yeah. Christoph says, if you want to go viral right now, start making a video game with cursor and post the progress. I'm sick of seeing it, but that's what gets the impressions right now. And so, yeah, maybe we should build a TBPN game. Go viral. Hey, we built this in 10 seconds. I think we just need to bait. One prompt. We need to be focused. One post a day from each of us baiting an Elon repost. That's good. Wow. Elon is awesome. And Grok is so awesome.

1:35:53I love Grok. i i stopped using all i stopped using everything and everything else and i just use grok yeah it is the best yeah repost your phone just your phone i also crushed your phone just starts melting i crushed my 9-11 into a into a ball of metal and i bought a cybertruck the metal sidings on my cybertruck yeah with crushed 9-11 melted down 9-11 is the side side plating for sure we actually should do one of those we it would be worthwhile doing a uh you know telling jason calacanis huge tesla guy to uh say hey we're gonna drive a vintage uh ferrari you drive a cybertruck and do one of those you know pulling battles and just let the cybertruck win oh there you go posted from our account so we get the repost so we get the ratings we get the ratings you get the ratings as jay cal likes to say yeah uh but it is cool i i love that people are building cool games with with uh cursor with grok with all these different tools uh very very fun and and we'd love to see people be able to instantiate like silly ideas like pmf or die or pmf or die dot xyz in a very quick fashion which is only possible with the ai era and so yeah if you have some funny idea something on your bucket list go build it post it you might get quote tweeted by elon musk and get three million views on your on your app drive a bunch of followers and then start a podcast who knows anyway let's move on to lewis hamilton okay i want to i want to read this because this is uh this sounds like something that senra would say yeah and it is clearly and i think he might be quoting yeah he's potentially probably quoting this you know a lot of the best uh athletes you know uh actors etc have just been ripping senra but uh clearly inspired by by timmy or potentially happening at the same time.

1:37:40Lewis Hamilton, uh, now over at Ferrari says, don't ever compare me to anybody else. I'm the first and only black driver. And that's, that's ever been in the sport. I'm built different. I've been through a lot. I've had my own journey. You can't compare me to another 40 year old pastor, present formula one driver in history because they are nothing like me. I'm hungry, driven, don't have a wife and kids. I'm focused on one thing and that's winning. That's my number one priority. I love how locked in he is. There's this quote. I think it's uh it's alonzo yeah where he's driving and he makes this like very very like sketchy pass yeah and he goes after they're they're interviewing he goes oh he's got a wife and kids at home i knew he would break uh and it's like the craziest thing because you can tell he's you know they're both gunning for the corner yep he's like yeah this guy's the guy who's racing again is like i don't want to die wow that is crazy i hadn't thought about that and so when you're racing it's it's you know the yeah i don't know what the actual i'm sure that base jumping is more dangerous than you know f1 but f1's one of the most dangerous you know um high level professional sports thankfully getting a lot less dangerous thanks to the halo and some of the 100 i i drive a lot slower than i did pre kids you know i i used to go up in the canyons and have a rip uh i do that much less frequently now.

1:39:00Yeah. Makes sense. Anyway, let's move on to Sam Lesson. Sam says, Elon's what did you get done this week at AI scale is in fact the AI future. AI isn't going to be your professional assistant. It's going to be your professional manager getting spicy. A lot of people probably won't like this one. Over and over. Sam doesn't get enough credit for being up there in the rage bait hall of fame with with people like sweaty start oh yeah uh you know he's up there sam is more sophisticated you know in his approach higher brow he's not saying you know i want my employees to work hard he's saying you're going to be managed by an ai uh and i think this is a cool take you know we've talked before you can imagine a world where a an individual who's never managed another person before is managing you know devon and other agents to run their business but this is sort of flipping that on its head.

1:39:54So it says over and over, I see people pushing these rosy ideas that AI is going to be your assistant. Fine, yes, you will get some cute AI that schedules for you in some form and sends sweet nothings in the morning about your day. It will prepare little reports for you that might make you feel all warm and fuzzy but that won't be the real leveraged impact. The real leveraged impact is that AI is gonna be your manager. You are the order taker for it, not the other way around. Elon has got this right. the real value of asking formally, what have you done this week? And knowing who is pulling weight, culling those who don't and optimizing, pushing those who are slash can.

1:40:28You couldn't do it effectively before AI at scale, but now you can. It might be nicely disguised as a coach. Cute. Hey, to be more productive, to do X, Y, Z, or it looks like you could focus on X versus Y if you want to get that promotion. But what it will really be doing is snitching for your boss, your boss's boss, and ultimately the dreaded shareholder. Why? Well, that is where the productivity is going to come from. AI will clear the path for basic easy tasks to make sure your time is leveraged fully and will make it easy for managers to deal with all the complexity, cut to the chase of where and how value comes from and who is driving it.

1:41:02More transparency is generally good, but people who think this is some rosy machine works for man, nah, it's the other way around. Interesting, especially interesting in light of that controversial AI a sweatshop company from YC this week. That, that it's like the, what did you get? I, no one really pieced it together, but that company could have just been called, what did you get done this week? AI? No, it's more of like, what did you get done in the last hour? What did you get done in the last 10 minutes? And then comparing that over time previously and, and knowledge workers have this thing where they, they sort of get assigned a project or they have a general area of responsibility and then they just sort of have to there's actually really delayed feedback everybody that's managed a team before if you started a company you hire somebody you sort of break down what they need to get done you check in with them a week later and sometimes you're you're saying wow this amazing incredible progress you're crushing it yep sometimes you're sitting there and being like well what did you do the last two days you're coming to me now confused i wish you asked me you know two days ago and even worse is like if if something slips for a couple weeks and it's like oh it didn't even get started yep and ai can sort of potentially be omnipresent and sort of be in real time guiding people towards you know the right outcomes and so i still think there's like a manager sitting above the ai coach manager yep that is sort of setting you know the goals but maybe over time you know that that fades and it's just we're all just working for the who knows Hard working paper clips.

1:42:34The shareholders at the end of the day. Yep. Well, let's go to roll off Bota over at Sequoia. Just to kind of extrapolate there, you can imagine a world where shareholders in a public company say, we're actually collectively, as shareholders, are going to vote to basically hire this AI consulting team that's going to micromanage the management. uh it's it doesn't seem unreasonable that that that could happen uh and potentially allows shareholders to exert you know more more day-to-day control over uh the management of the company could be a lot of pushback we'll see i wonder what will happen with that post if it will break containment and get some pushback but for now i think it's a it's a reasonable take who knows We'll see.

1:43:24Let's go to Rolloff Bota over at Sequoia. He says, we remain destined to repeat the mistakes of the past SPVs or making a comeback where the lead investor speaks for less than 10 % of the capital yet eagerly lines up the latest set of tourist chumps who think the story will end differently this time. It's only been three years. What do you think? Who is he subtweeting? Yeah, crazy. I mean, I'm sure he's just seeing a number of rounds happening across his portfolio and saying, wait, this person's doing, you know, a$20 million investment and they only have$50 million under management. How does that work?

1:44:01And it's, oh, it's a, it's a manager who's, um, but yeah, again, there, there's a bunch of really, um, you know, good players out there that use SPVs are great, you know, tool for investors. And oftentimes they provide access to great companies but certainly there are many examples where you know SPVs typically get sort of if you're a founder putting together a round you're you're prioritizing people that have the capital ready to wire right or that's one capital call away to wire SPVs are oftentimes a not a last resort but you know you're maybe you make room for somebody to do an SPV because they're saying oh I'm going to bring in this celebrity and this you know person whatever but again I think you know I don't think he's subtweeting figure but figure right now one of the risk of the rounds they're putting together is he's basically marketing in my view he's almost marketing to retail investors because if he needs to raise two billion dollars at a 40 billion valuation the people that will do those rounds are tourist chumps who think they're getting in on the next Tesla, but are ultimately that when that company has been, you know, certainly a firm like Sequoia or Founders Fund is not doing figure at almost twice the price of Andrel, right?

1:45:23Yeah. And so there's clearly like a spectrum of kind of credibility in rounds, not just what, you know, are you doing an SPV or going with a traditional VC firm, but even within the VC world, there are some funds that have very high GP commits where the partner who's doing the deal has a very material portion of their wealth in that fund and so they are like they basically solve the principal agent problem yeah by putting their tying their net worth to that firm and uh and so yeah you might raise a 10 million dollar series a and two million dollars of that might come from the partners or the GP or more in some cases.

1:46:03And so if it's a professional investor who's highly aligned, that can usually be the best possible signal or the best possible outcome. But there's a good, there's a good comment. There's a good comment here from Hari. He says, this is generally true, responding to Roloff. This is generally true like 99 % of the time, but when you stumble on a diamond in the rough, dot, dot, dot, I'm still chasing the high for my second ever angel investment into an SPV with no institutional lead run by Naval into the notion seed round in 2016. So he, you know, I'm sure that was somewhere around 20 post and, uh, is now sitting at North of 10 billion and he did, did pretty well.

1:46:43And I wonder if that SPV was the, was the lead check or not, because it's very different if it's like, oh, there was a, well, it said it had no institutional lead. Oh, it basically, you know, it's very possible was the biggest and his uh investor group was the biggest yeah um yeah i mean naval's like pretty coded as spv runner uh anyway let's move on uh what comes after smartphones ai glasses you actually want to talk to says uh anjini midha uh we at andreason horowitz are excited to invest in sesame's mission to bring the computer to life okay so this is a reference back to the tech demo earlier in the show where uh you know somebody was saying that this is the most her like moment that they've experienced other people were pushing back on it but uh i just like the domain sesame.com it's nice that's a good one yeah it's a good one yeah it feels very you know it's very memorable yeah and then it still ties to like this idea of like open sesame you're talking to a genie in a lamp you have three wishes like there's like some fun lore there but it's still a word you can spell you can get the dot com yeah and so this is a company that's competing directly with meta ray bans which is going to be tough because asap rocky famed rapper i didn't know the style god yeah is working with ray-ban yeah and so i saw reggie was posting that i'm sure asap rocky will then be working on the meta ray-bans yep and you'll see and they have a crazy partnership with luxottica for to bring in house all the ray-ban stuff and uh and then obviously they're they're rolling out llama and all these different tools.

1:48:18And that was one of the more attractive features of the meta Ray-Bans when I experienced them was taking the dog for a walk and being able to just say, Hey, Hey meta, what's, you know, like how old is this tree or something or whatever? It was like, it was, it was cool to be able to ask, you know, history questions. You're listening to a podcast and then you can just say, Hey meta, like tell me more about this. And it becomes more of a conversation. Anyway, let's move on to Bridget Harris over at Founders Fund. She says demand for yield will send the stable coin supply way, way higher. Fintechs are realizing stable coins are the best way to deliver yield to customers, and it'll become status quo the same way cash back did.

1:48:58Once customers adjust to getting yield on everything, it's hard to go back. Latin America is the first mover here, but popular US-based fintech platforms are also starting to offer yield, which consumers are increasingly recognizing as the new normal. Right now, Coinbase automatically offers 4.1 % API on any USDC held on their platform. And there's a bunch of other companies that are getting into the game, into the stablecoin game. Robinhood's mentioned, and they're pushing different API for subscribers, APY for subscribers. And so moving people into stablecoins. It's so crazy that Bology was formative and actually just making this category and now the market cap is, the stablecoin market cap is how many?

1:49:41Yeah. Yeah, 21co was his company. He wanted to create a computer that could mine Bitcoin and also do a bunch of other stuff with stable coins and micropayments using crypto. And now the technology is finally approaching reality. The micropayments haven't really rolled out yet. It's really painful that one of the areas of crypto that has the strongest product market fit, you couldn't really invest in the tokens themselves. Yeah. is one one well tether if you got into that deal they're making a ton of money they're printing money because they take a slice of the apy on top of it the yield uh but uh i mean it also has to work better in a high rate environment right because yeah how can you get high yield on usdc in a zero interest rate environment it's got to be landed to fcx question to try to make a 10x in a day question uh you might lose it all well we got some personnel news.

1:50:37Joe Gebbia, the founder of Airbnb is moving on to Doge. He says he's excited to share. I'm bringing my designer brain and startup spirit into the government. My first project at Doge is improving the slow and paper-based retirement process. Hilarious. That is a job that no one in his position would ever want. Has ever done. Has ever done. I'm going to go be a product manager for the government. It's insane. Beautiful time. I love it. Thank you. Thank you for your service. I 100 % want a smoother and less paper-based retirement process. This is fantastic. Since leaving his operating role at Airbnb in 2022, he's been looking for the next design challenge in the digital realm.

1:51:24And he can think of a few more important, and he says, I can think of few more important ones than volunteering to improve the user experience within our government. If If anyone else in good standing wants to help design beautiful user-friendly digital products, reach out. And so he's going over to the Office of Personnel Management, trying to smooth things over with good design. And that makes a ton of sense. I love it. So cool to see. And you've seen just like the flaws with like the Medicare website took all this time. And like whenever you interact with any government website, you're just like, this feels 20 years old.

1:51:59Like what's going on here? And so just having someone in there who can, you know, staff a team of designers, turn things around quickly, actually implement changes. Most people haven't, you know, built a company like like Airbnb, you know, and they go they go into the OPM business, other people's money. Yeah, I said, OK, I'm going to go into the office. I'm going to go into the OPM, you know, sector and the office of personnel management. I love it. Yeah. And, you know, make our country a better place to be. I mean, it is crazy. Like, like you think about his experience at Airbnb, he wasn't just the co-founder who was there for a couple of years.

1:52:34He was there all the way to 2022. So historic run 15, 14 years, something like that. And then also Airbnb operated at a scale that is actually somewhat relevant to the government. You know, it's like millions and millions of people, they're dealing with payments. They're dealing with, uh, not maybe not social security numbers, but certainly like ID and, and, uh, and, uh, KYC stuff. And so they've done a lot of different, tools here. So great post. Congratulations to you, Joe, and good luck on your mission to improve the retirement workflow. Incredible. Before we jump into the next post, we got a request from Brandon Jacoby.

1:53:08We're going to pull up a video right now that Zuck just posted on his Instagram. Ben's pulling it up. He doesn't have audio. I don't think we need audio. Oh, look at this. Wow. So Zuck posted this on his Instagram. Oh my God. This is incredible. People who called the top on Zuck. Okay, but live reaction. I have no idea. This is for, I don't think Zuck can move like this. You think he's AI? I think he's flexing a new. I don't think so. I think he did it. I think it's real. Look at, yeah, look at the jump. Yeah, that's accurate. The fingers count up. Everything looks good. They're having a blast.

1:53:46He's singing. This is amazing. Where is this? He's doubling down. Is this his wife's birthday or something? Something like that. Wow. What an amazing, amazing post. I love it. You know, in China, that would get you in prison. Did you see? That would get you in prison for sure. So he says, your wife only turns 41. There we go. What song is he singing? This is incredible. Here, I'm going to pull up the audio real quick. I love it. It's so good. yeah jack ma did something similar

1:54:27okay so he's lip-syncing okay that's great still yeah jack ma did the rock star thing on stage and shortly after kind of disappeared literally because it was like people were like okay he's becoming like a god like people are like credit credit to zuck he practiced that to a agree that he oh yeah he looked yeah like a perfect blend of robot and bro clearly i mean tested it totally totally mogging all the people that said oh they were trying to do a poly market on if he was going to get divorced this year oh yeah remember fake news they're back and yeah i mean i think gamblers are in shambles i think he did the right thing you know there's a lot of questions about like oh should he back off the bro stuff no double down go crazier keep it going i I mean, this is sophisticated and wholesome stuff.

1:55:12It is. It's very wholesome. You're going to put on this incredible show. She's going to remember that forever. Yep. The PR team behind this must be paid so well. It's like this clearly came from him. Let him cook. Let him cook. The blue sequined suit. I love it. That's great. That's fun. Anyway, let's move on to some reports from Altimeter from Shield Monat. Incredible early vintages from Altimeter VC funds. Wonder how much of total returns are from Snowflake. They led the Series C at$260 million post in 2015. That stake was worth$4.4 billion at the IPO. Let's do a little size gong for Altium.

1:55:54boom thank you vc is a power law game and they crushed it on snow wild that brad started with just three million dollars in 2008 that's insane ran it up uh 61 net irr 6.5 billion dollars realized on 2.8 billion in committed capital they got a bunch of funds here they're a lot of rippers and uh it's great stuff brad is just such a cool guy too i ran into him at my local coffee shop he's been he's a surfer so he spends uh some time in malibu and uh you know walked up to him said hi we're in a handful of companies in the same companies but um just such a such a cool down to earth dude who has a has been on an absolute tear he had a rough go with the hedge fund sure in 2022 i think it was when the market sold off basically got crushed yeah i think it was long this is when people were like sass and video sass is over yeah um but uh that's the game and the interest rates went up and obviously if you're highly into tech you're gonna get burned and i feel and i feel like back in the game as as journalists like newcomer started leaking performance this is a great time if you're an investor to leak your screenshots oh look at this Oh, please don't share this.

1:57:16Please don't share that I have 61 % net IRR on billions of dollars. I would hate for that to get loose. Anyway, let's move on to Nick, who posted a screenshot of Jeff Bezos liking his post. You know, you got to do some engagement bait for the billionaires that They're hanging out on X all day. Nick apparently posted, news, Amazon just dropped their first quantum computing chip, codenamed Ocelot. We are so back. That could have been me posting that. But, you know, Nick got to it first. He got the Bezos-like. And I wanted to break this down a little bit. It's in the journal today. Amazon unveils its first quantum computing chip.

1:57:56We heard this from Google a couple months ago. Google in December said it developed a new chip called Willow. And that really, at that moment, the people that were watching quantum computing closely we're like, okay, this is a breakthrough where we're now starting to accelerate the development here. And then of course, earlier this week, we covered Satya Nadella on Dwarakash Patel announcing the Majorana chip. And they claimed a quantum computing breakthrough by creating a new state of matter. Now Amazon's in the game. Their cloud computing business on Thursday unveiled its first ever quantum computing chip, which it claims marks an important step in the development of useful, reliable quantum computers.

1:58:33That's what we want, folks. The chip dubbed Ocelot can lower the costs of reducing quantum computing errors by up to 90%, Amazon said. And the race is on. Everyone wants to build a practical quantum computer. The Amazon Ocelot chip is a prototype, not a full-blown quantum system, said Oscar Painter, head of quantum hardware for AWS. To be honest, John, I'm a little bit frustrated. we were prepping our quantum chip launch we got kind of edged out by this satya goes on to our cash uh you know even uh even google's working on one they've got willow they're teasing that we kind of got beat to the punch but i want to let people know we are still in the game yep uh ben has been working on it while we record he's been working on chip and he wasn't he never actually had his wisdom teeth removed he actually was grinding he was actually going to lab grinding Like reducing quantum noise.

1:59:28Yeah. Creating new states of matter. Yep. Yeah. Yeah. And this is going to change podcasting. I mean, you start compressing our audio feed with a quantum computer. It's going to be super high fidelity. The best takes possible. Anyway, let's move on. Mike Taylor says, I may have underestimated the power of my product appearing in an every post. RIP my calendar. 130 onboarding calls booked in 24 hours. Little 15-minute slots. The guy is slammed. his products ripping uh and congratulations to him have you ever had a calendar booked like this on a single day i have for part of it i remember having this exact calendar set up the my son was uh born on a saturday and my calendar looked like this on monday it was kind of brutal yeah i don't recommend that but i'm sure sam all uh sam altman's look like that this week too so yeah sometimes you just got to do it, you know?

2:00:23Yeah. Um, you gotta, you gotta be in a certain frame of mind to really deliver and bring the same pitch, you know, 50 times back to back to back to back, back, back, back, back, 15 minutes segments. But you probably get really good at your pitch if you do that and you get the reps in, you learn what works, what resonates, what doesn't, how to talk, how to let them talk. I've done this, you know, not, not in a, you know, sort of micromanaging way, but portfolio companies where they'd say like, Oh, like we're not creating sales momentum it's like cool screen share your calendar i'm like you're talking with you're talking with like two customers a day yeah you should be talking you're never gonna you're never gonna actually be a top decile company from a growth standpoint unless you have some crazy product-led uh growth motion uh unless you have this extreme volume because it really is just um you know should should be obvious but it's just a numbers game if if he has a 10 % hit rate, but he's doing 20 calls a day.

2:01:20Great. Adding, he's going to be getting, you know, significant amount of traction from this. Okay. Six minutes left. We're going through some quick bangers. I will read them. You give me your take. Let's start with Morgan Barrett. Big night for hard tech in California and America at Velar Atomics. So proud of Isaiah Taylor. They had a big announcement last night. Looked like something out of a sci-fi movie. What was your take, Jordy?

2:01:45Anyways, this was absolutely wild. I didn't know what to think. We got invited, but couldn't make it. It seriously would be easier for us to get to Austin than that side of town right now. But what a show, an absolute showman. I was pissed because I feel like he really upstaged us on the production value. We're the ones that bring in the Hollywood designers and create elaborate sets. And his set was way above what we do. Yeah, people say, oh, you guys have such a nice set. Yep. But not anymore. They say, Velar Atomics is the one that looks cool. So anyway, congrats to the team over there. Let's move on to Low Tam Banger from Rob David.

2:02:28He says, high yield, Harry. City, when it comes to accidentally sending people money, and it's just a dunk, and it's a dunk reel. And I don't know if you read this story. It's in the journal today. Citigroup almost made an$81 trillion mistake. They accidentally moved to transfer$81 trillion to a customer. Yes, trillion. A bank employee mistakenly entered this absurdly high figure last year while trying to manually input a transfer to a client's escrow account. Do they have$81 trillion? That seems a little bit... Well, the annual GDP of the United States is around$25 trillion. No, Jordy. I don't think Citigroup has$81 trillion.

2:03:09uh yeah what what is like just to put this in perspective yep they they i'm assuming they have what uh they have billions i'm sure but not trillions of billions yeah maybe uh and so there's a couple different examples of uh the fat finger transfer could happen uh is a lesson of technical difficulties would it appear on the customer screen oh you now i have seen that happen i've had friends who have said like oh some bank air happened and for a moment i had you know a couple billion dollars in my account because they messed it up and then they reverse it of course so it's all fake yeah all the money's all the money's fake the money's in the computer i talked to a hedge fund guy who actually said like there's money in the real world and there's money in the computer he's like and the computer money like that's the stuff that goes up and down or something like that it was a really funny thing anyway uh if you're trying to make 81 trillion dollars you gotta start a hedge fund you gotta go on public.com investing for those that take it seriously.

2:04:06They got multi-asset investing, industry-leading yields, and they're trusted by millions. And they're not going to send$81 trillion to anyone accidentally. They run a tight ship over there. Let's go to Nikko over at Default. They announced a$4 million new funding round from ABC we covered here on the show. And they did this launch, which I know you'll have something to say about uh they sent out 100 branded champagne bottles in custom pelican cases and tom osmond says solid sponsor for tbpn tbh what'd you think uh we love champagne on a long enough time horizon we will work with every champagne company yes you know as long as it's truly champagne yep from the champagne region of France uh but this was a story I actually heard this from Sam Blonde uh he was at yeah didn't he's at zenefits and then uh brax i think and he said that one of the things that worked really well was sending people champagne uh he was in sales because you're not giving them a beverage you're giving them a moment yeah a moment that they can take home and then they open it with their wife and they think about it and they're having fun or something or their team there's a lot of different we never we always offer champagne to ben yes yes yes anyway we covered this earlier on the show and Mike Maples responded.

2:05:25We talked about his amazing BMW Z8. He says, TBPNers, glad you like the Z8. I actually fell in love with it when BMW showed the Z07 concept back in the late 90s. At the time, I lived in Austin and the local dealer wouldn't even take my deposit because they were sold out instantly. So I called around and found a dealership in Shreveport, Louisiana, willing to let me buy their allocation in 2001. I've had it ever since and it's probably the one car I'd never sell. Cheers. We got to have him on the show. We got to ask him what other cars he owns. What cars would he sell? Yep. You know, but fantastic car.

2:06:01And thanks for replying, Mike. We'd love to have you on the show. Great lore. Come chat about cars. I've never driven the Z8, but I've heard really good things about it. Everyone talks. True classic. Yeah. So thanks for engaging, Mike. We'd love to have you chat about cars. You're welcome to come in and call in anytime. Let's go to Reva. She says, looking to hire a chief of staff. By the way, we have basically a minute until we're starting to be a MFMF. Okay, well, we got some promoted posts. We got Reva. She's hiring a chief of staff, trying the usual agency's recruiters, but struggling to find someone vibey.

2:06:30So if you're looking for a chief of staff, go work for Reva. Who else we got? We got some merch. Let's save some of these for Monday. Okay, yeah, we'll save some. John's got an incredible podcaster's high right now. I don't want to stop. I want to stop. Well, we got one more. We got one more. We got to do. This guy is an addict. We got to do this. So it was Steve Jobs' birthday on Monday, and Bezel replied to us and said, he's a minimalist watch king. And in here, he's wearing a beautiful Seiko. And I love that Bezel, we text them all the time, can you clock this watch? And that's why we wanted to run an ad for Bezel today.

2:07:06Go to Bezel. I know Brandon Jacoby is listening right now, and I think he's one of the biggest Steve Jobs fans that I know. Blazers. Brandon, I expect you to be in a Steve Jobs Seiko on Bezel. send us a screenshot and we'll feature it on the show fantastic but go to bezel shop over 22 5 22 500 luxury watches they're fully authenticated in-house by bezel's team of experts that's a great place to end the show actually the the real place to end the show uh is uh sarah was was watching from home and she commented in the chat and said you have 12 years she's 28 right now so So she was referencing. Oh, to learn.

2:07:42It sucks for you. To learn the song. Anyways, great day of timeline today. Fantastic. It's fun to rip through timeline. It's a fun show. We're trying to do more timeline. Yeah, more clips. There's a lot of news to cover. But we're trying to do. Yeah, we want to make sure the pod is snackable. So thank you for tuning in with us on a Friday. We are going to jump over to the PMF or Die stream and grill Patty and Blake on what they got done this week. They've certainly been busy. and we are excited to grill them. So anyways, have a great weekend, brothers. We will see you on Monday. See you on Monday.

2:08:16Thanks for watching.

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  • (00:00) - Happy B-Day Producer Ben
  • (01:58) - Tell Me a Joke
  • (05:17) - GPT 4.5 Analysis
  • (49:50) - RIP Skype
  • (01:00:58) - Sam Sulek's Pro Card
  • (01:06:36) - The Timeline

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