GPT-5.2 Reactions, Jacob Elordi vs AI, Disney x OpenAI Deal Breakdown | Diet TBPN

0:01Death Star post, now it makes sense. It all makes sense. It wasn't a vague post. It was just early. A preview, a deal that would take shape four months later, right? That's what was happening. Sam Altman, of course, what was this? On GPT-5 day, August 6th, he posted a picture of the Death Star rising on the horizon. Very confusing post at the time. Now we understand. Now we get it. He was saying, hey, one day we're going to have rights to Star Wars properties through this deal with Disney. Darth. Of course. Darth Sama. People did not like this post at the time. And the timing was really funny.

0:36It implied that they were about to release something so all-powerful. Yeah, it was easy to read it that way. Yeah. You could also read it as like maybe they're going on the offensive against the Death Star, the Empire, which is Google. They're going to attack Google. There were a number of different ways to read into it, but it was confusing. It was confusing, and then I feel like people were somewhat let down. We had a bunch of different takes on it. We think it makes sense now, but now, you know, it's even more clear with the Disney deal. But you wrote about the Disney deal, you dug into the deal, and you kind of crystallized your take, so take me through it.

1:13I wrote 127 days. That's the gap between Sam's Star Wars Death Star vague post and yesterday's announcement that Disney is investing$1 billion into OpenAI and giving them a three-year license that allows users to generate AI photos and videos of the most popular 200 Disney characters. Most notably, OpenAI is guaranteed a one-year exclusive on the IP, and while the posts and the deal are probably not connected, I think it's funny to imagine that they are. Right before the deal was announced, Disney sent Google a cease-and-desist letter claiming Google had been violating Disney's intellectual property by allowing users to generate a variety of Disney characters.

1:45Many people outside tech seem shocked that Disney would license their IP in the first place, given their history ruthlessly protecting it. There's a number of examples of Disney coming after kids' birthday parties, or at least that's how they positioned it. of course these are businesses effectively using Disney characters to monetize. I read your draft and I was like, wait, they sued a child for having a Disney themed birthday party? There's two notable examples. One is coming after basically a birthday party service. Company, like a business that sells, we will do your birthday party. And then they were selling and it'll be princess themed.

2:20They wouldn't directly call the characters that you could like like Rent, the same names. It wasn't like Elsa. Okay. But it was clear. In the reviews, what Disney noted in the reviews, people would call the characters by the Disney name. So that was one of their proof points. And there was also a story of a father who wanted to do a Spider-Man tombstone for his very young son that passed. That's rough. And I think it was the... Effectively got blocked. It wasn't necessarily directly by Disney. But anyways, Disney has longstanding policy of not letting other people. Such a PR nightmare. If your legal team comes to you and says, like, we want to sue a dead person, like, tell them, like, they back off.

3:00It wasn't, no, it was just like, it wasn't a lawsuit. Or maybe it was a tombstone company. They were just saying, like, no, you can't make a Spider-Man tombstone. Sure, sure, sure. Many people outside of tech seem shocked that Disney would license their IP, but Bob Iger knows that AI-generated Disney will happen with or without the company's blessing. So partnering with OpenAI today while setting up negotiations with Google and other players makes a lot of sense. Again, I just expect this, like, cease and desist is the start of a negotiation process in order to get the same type of IP and capability ultimately into Gemini.

3:29But in 2027, not in 2026. Yeah, well, and maybe not, right? Like one question I have is they have a one-year exclusive. After that period, does Disney say, okay, you can keep having the exclusive, but you need to pay us like a billion dollars a year? And at least Google's at the table negotiating. Is that what you mean? Yeah, exactly. The strategic significance of the steal for open AI has been broadly underappreciated, mainly because for a company that frequently talks in the trillions. Disney's investment, a paltry$1 billion, just isn't enough to turn heads. But the advantage this deal gives OpenAI from a product and distribution standpoint is extremely significant.

3:59OpenAI has 20 to 30 million paid users out of a total of 900 million globally. Disney, on the other hand, had 140 million people visit Disney parks in the last year and 128 million paid subscribers to Disney+. If you're an adult spending thousands of dollars to take your kids to Disneyland or a Disney Plus subscriber, surely you'll pay an incremental amount to OpenAI to extend and personalize your Disney experience. As a parent, some of the most magical moments with AI that I've had are simply generally, I've talked about this before, I take a real photo of me and my son and I turn it into a generic design source.

4:32Dino mode. It really brings us both a lot of joy. It's like, it's his reaction to the picture that I'm getting joy from because he just like absolutely loves it. I had a similar experience where I would, I would like take a picture of of like, you know, we'd create a scene of toys and then we'd say like, make these Lego versions of this or something. But the models got so good at a certain point that I was just like, okay, like I just, I made his toys look like toys and it just looks exactly like what I made. I was like, I just, I need to just take a photo. I need like more creativity to come up with something remarkable.

5:06My household is not into the Disney world yet. I think the kids are just young. Yeah. But I can imagine how excited if you're a Frozen super fan, an Avengers super fan, And being able to put yourself, your kids, into their world, I think is going to be pretty exciting. So having a license to generate high-quality images and videos of 200 of these characters creates a temporary but very real differentiation for tons of current and future ChatGPT users. Knowing Sam and Josh, they've likely negotiated to get Sora ChatGPT broad exposure across Disney properties, both online and offline. And we already know that select Sora videos will be featured in Disney+.

5:42I think they're going to be taking, really making sure they're hand selecting those because, again. I wonder what that means. I wonder if that means the Apple TV app or the Disney Plus app on the phone. On an iPad, on a phone, it feels a little bit more natural. Just in terms of the Star Wars property, like there's, there are the original Star Wars films, and then there's Young Jedi Adventures, which is Star Wars for kids. The, you know, there's even less violence. It's more G-rated than PG-13 rated. even with Bluey, very popular children's show on Disney, on Disney Plus, there are full episodes that are like a full episode might be, I wanna say like eight minutes long, but then there's mini-sodes that are even shorter.

6:24So like the short formification is happening within the Disney app already, but I think a lot of parents would have a sort of negative reaction to just - A feed. A feed, yeah. Yeah, an endless scrolling feed of short form Sora content. That's going to be really tricky. It needs a twist. It needs curation. They said that there's already going to be curation, but I wonder how that's going to roll out. Curation, but it could still very well be infinite. You could essentially have like a film festival that's running and kids submit their generations and then those get highlighted. A film festival of seven second videos.

6:59I'm sure Hollywood will love that. Back in the Vine days, the creative skill ceiling was incredible. People were doing remarkable, remarkable things with that. I still believe that there's some really interesting things that you can do with generative systems, with generative AI. And I imagine that we will see some cool stuff come out of the Disney partnership. But I don't know that I'd want a kid sitting there watching endless slob. I finish it out by saying my long-held assumption is that over time, everyday consumers won't pay for LLMs. There will be great ad and commerce supported LMs that provide the monetization to serve great models.

7:33But OpenAI's challenge is that even with future Hall of Famers like Fiji Simo and Denise Dresser on board, Denise is, of course, the former CEO of Slack, who's now CRO at OpenAI. They can't massively scale monetization of the free product overnight. They can't just say, hey, chat, GBT agent, create a massive ad platform. Don't make mistakes. I don't expect those business lines to really begin ramping until the second half of next year, and they need to show continued revenue growth now. Hard to think of a better time for this deal to get done than 11 days into OpenAI's code red, and right as Sora was about to fall out of the App Store's top 25.

8:06Will the functionality be immediately abused? Yes. Will it create uncomfortable moments for Disney's leadership? Yes. Is it a smart move for Disney? Yes. Will OpenAI have to shell out billions to maintain exclusive access over the long run? Yes. I want to debate you on this idea that it will be abused immediately. I think it's actually really, really hard to abuse these systems. Oh, jailbreak it. I got it to say something crazy. Like that's like, it's just like, seems like a thing of the past. What do you think about it? I just, I just trust that the internet immediately will figure out if you have hundreds of millions of people trying to jailbreak it, they will pull it off.

8:39The other thing that will happen is people using different models that are like already don't have the same guardrails and making it look like they're sore outputs, even though they're insane. Oh, totally. Totally. Totally. I'm just saying like open source model, that's completely unrestricted, you do something crazy, and then you throw the sore watermark on it just to take a shot at Sam. Stick it to Bob and Sam. A little sigh off. What do you think, Tyler? Yeah, I was going to agree with Jordy. Hey, what's this? What's this? Oh, yeah, I've just been, you know, I got a double jaw surgery. Double jaw surgery.

9:15And a little bone smashing. I've been bone smashing a bit, yeah, just trying to get my looks. You're looking fantastic. This is remarkable. I really care. Hats off to the production team. This is a fantastic new feature. to allow Tyler to look like the absolute giga-chat. Look like how I do every day. Yes, how you do every day. I was going to say, like, yeah, day one, there's going to be people on X that, like, easily jailbreak it. I can't look at them. I can't take you seriously. Just look at us. And then they're just going to post it, and then it's going to go super viral, and then you'll have parents.

9:46Chad ID. Now it says Chad ID. Now Chad Podcast. Tell me your actual take. Okay, yeah. So I think, like, day one. No, he's back to me. Oh, what happened?

9:58Day one. There we go. There we go. Okay, day one, you have people who jailbreak it, even if it's like one person, then it goes super viral next, and then it's like, oh, Mickey Mouse, like shooting a gun, and then it goes viral, parents see it, and they're like, okay, my kids aren't going to be on this, because even if it's like mostly, like you're going to have a ton of backlash where it goes super viral on CBS News or whatever. Yeah. Nah, I don't buy that. I think it will be very magical, and I think that they'll immediately be getting shared in family group chats between friends. I think we maybe underestimate the adult Disney audience as well.

10:34I could go two ways, adult Disney. Okay, easy, John. Where do you think the line is? So you think that they would, whenever this rolls out, maybe it's already out, it might be out soon, but let's just assume it rolls out January, you go to Sora, you can generate Luke Skywalker fighting with Spider-Man because those are two Disney properties. Can you have Luke Skywalker cut Spider-Man's arm off? Because Luke Skywalker does cut off people's arms in the PG-13 rated Star Wars, but Spider-Man does not ever get cut, he never gets his arm cut off because he's more of a PG character. And I'm just wondering like where is the line for the Disney execs?

11:18Like where would they draw the line? How upholding the brand. I think we'll know it when we see it. It'd be a funny scenario where they only allow violence on Warner Brothers characters. But they don't have the rights, but it's just like, oh yeah, you can... They do that in Hollywood. There's some actors who have it in their contracts that they never will lose a fist fight, basically. They'll say, you can cast me in this movie, but if I'm fighting up as somebody I don't lose, we can tie, basically. So you know how you watch a lot of like Jason Statham and The Rock and like Fast and Furious. And they're like bashing each other through walls for like five minutes, like this crazy action scene.

11:56And then at the end, you're like, oh, like neither of them won. It's like, that's because it's in the contract. They don't want to be, they don't want to be depicted as like losers. They don't want to be aura farmed. They don't want to be aura farmed. Exactly. I got roasted by the anti-AI crowd for suggesting that IP holders might want their characters in Sora. They insisted that real entertainment companies would never willingly allow their characters to be used in AI slop two months later, how the times have changed. I completely agree with this take. I think it is interesting how there is just the reality that if you hold IP, you need to exist in the world.

12:31You need to exist a lot. You can't just stay on the shelf. You can't be the Humphrey Bogart. And yesterday when Dylan from Puck was here, he was mentioning a bunch of old Hollywood references. And I was laughing to myself because I know you have not seen Casablanca and you have no idea what he means by get on the plane or rosebud or any of these references has anyone else noticed vo3 has no ip constraints prompt mickey mouse welcoming you to disney look at this john this was going on back june 16. what's crazy is that this somehow looks this this looked so good at the time and i was like oh it's over it's so over and yet this now looking back this looks washed out.

13:14It doesn't have, it's like overly saturated or something. It looks like a green screen. Yeah, it doesn't actually look that good to me anymore. And it's because the goalposts have moved as they always do. Do you want to hear, do you want to hear my full movie? Okay. This is the full list you can pick and, uh, and Tyler, you can play along too. First up, The Godfather. Have Have you seen it? No. Wow. Okay. Taxi driver. Never heard of it. Star Wars. You've seen Star Wars. I've seen at least a couple. Raging Bull. No. Scarface. Yes. You've actually seen Scarface? Yes. Full Metal Jacket. But I didn't study it.

13:51I watched it, but I didn't take notes. Full Metal Jacket. No. Die Hard. Maybe like 10 years ago. You've got to see Die Hard. Goodfellas. No. You've got to watch Goodfellas. This is so good. Reservoir Dogs. Maybe. Pulp Fiction. Seen it. Okay. Heat. Heard of it. Haven't seen it. Casino. Never heard of it. Braveheart. Heard of it. Haven't seen it. You've never seen Braveheart. Wow. Okay. Hackers. No. Apollo 13. No. Contact. No. The Fifth Element. No. Saving Private Ryan. No. You haven't seen Saving Private Ryan. Wow. I have seen John Wick. Funny story, I was on a flight back from London. Yeah. And it was like effectively 3 a.m.

14:41Whole plane's dark. Yeah. And Keanu Reeves just walks by my seat. Wait, in the actual plane? Yes. That's wild. Just walks by and it was like. Wait, and you were watching John Wick on the show? No, I wasn't. Oh, okay. Yeah. But he walks by and imagine seeing like Keanu. Oh, that's very crazy. You're on an overnight flight. It's dark in the plane and he just like walks by. I think he was using the restroom. And I ended up watching it after that to be fully immersed. More importantly, Hero Thousand Presence says 5.2. How about 5.2 cold ones with the boys? It's a beautiful Thursday night, folks. It's hilarious.

15:18This latest model is state of the art on beer bench, which is if I crack it open, it makes a fizzy sound and I go, hell yeah. Very good. GPT 5.2 also knows exactly which are the best Paul McCartney songs, and it can write a poem in Spanish as good as the median Pablo Neruda poem. Tyler Cowen loves the GPT models. He's obsessed. The most obsessed, and yet I've never seen somebody make the claim that he was one shot. That's true. That's true. Which is pretty elite category. He's using responsibly. He's using it responsibly. So it does feel like opening eyes with a little bit of the coming out of the trough of disillusionment, potentially.

15:58You know, the vibes have been really bad with the$1.4 trillion. But the global economy has not collapsed. And the market is rallying. And there were, in fact, not an Enron scenario. None of the big tech companies blew up. Like, we've moved on. Now, maybe it happens. But in general, it seems like, you know, expectations have sort of reset. and now we're going into 2026, it's kind of a new game. OpenAI still has a really dominant consumer business and it what looks like it's shaping up to be an oligopoly in the enterprise side or the B2B side. Nothing is a five alarm fire. They're in the code red, but it feels like they will emerge stronger from it.

16:37The big question is how will Sam Altman be perceived? Will he be one of the greatest founders of all time, founder CEOs? And I was trying to benchmark him. Let's say that he lands the plane, gets out of the code red, Baja blasts his way into the public markets, and he winds up being the founder CEO of a multi-trillion dollar consumer tech company. He's in the mag seven. It's the mag eight. How will he be remembered? For most CEO, founder CEOs, if they get the company out into the public markets at a trillion dollars, something like that, they typically own a ton. Steve Jobs is notably, at various times, not a major shareholder.

17:21At one point, he owned 5.5 million shares out of almost a billion shares. So he had half a percent, or 0.6 % in 2011. Bill Gates, on the other hand, absolute size lead. 13.7 % ownership of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos is at 14 % with Amazon. Jensen is at 3.7%. 3.77 % of NVIDIA. Elon Musk, almost 20 % at Tesla, 19.7%. Meta at 13.58%. Given how much dilution OpenAI has had to take in all the shareholders? Starting as a nonprofit. Well, that, but there's a world where if the company had just been formed as a C-Corp back in the day in 2015, and they had just raised a bunch of rounds back to back to back, and there was a bunch of co-founders initially, would sam actually have it's rumored what he's going to get something like seven percent was the proposal sure would he have would he have less than that in that scenario i don't think i don't think in the fullness this will end up working out that badly for sam the jump to reasoning models will be studied for years they are still wide wildly underrated rkgi1 has been out for six years gpt 5.2 is a five order of magnitude scale up and yet it still lands at 12 percent add a bit of reasoning and performance immediately jumps.

18:47And so you can see the Arc AGI 1 leaderboard. GPT 5.2 is only a 12%, but when you get to low, medium, high, extra high over in the reasoning models or you switch to the pro models, you're getting up to 90 % on Arc AGI. Of course the test that any human can do and yet AI has struggled with for a long time, not for long. AI is starting to make headroom or make headway on the Arc AGI leaderboard. Crock 4, of course, is also doing well. I'm excited to see what happens with Arc AGI v3. It feels like we're not even showing those scores yet because I think that none of the models are scoring at all yet.

19:33They're not even finishing. And I think it's It's an optimization problem to get the least number of moves. Oracle is a train wreck. How did they not disclose these delays on the call two days ago? And Bloomberg is reporting that Oracle delays some data center projects for opening AI to 2028. Oracle has pushed back the completion dates for some of the data centers it's developing for opening AI to 2028 from 2027. Delays are largely due to labor and material shortages, said the people, asking not to be identified. Oracle has been working to deliver over on a$300 billion contract to supply the computing power necessary to train and run opening eyes models.

20:09Since it was inked this summer, even with the delays, the timelines for the project in the U.S. remain ambitious for sites that are set to become some of the largest in the world. Oracle was basically saying, like, we're going to build AWS in two years. And that just felt like, you know, applaud the sort of ambition. but I think some of these delays, labor shortages, et cetera, were predictable. Bloomberg says our take on Oracle's massive bet on AI. Oracle's AI bet has fast become a bubble barometer. A little bub talk. Oracle spokesperson said in a statement that the company remained confident in its ability to meet its obligations and future expansion plans.

20:48There have been no delays to any sites required to meet our contractual commitments and all milestones remain on track. Meanwhile, Apollo, according to Compound 248, casually predicting zero returns for the S &P 500 over the coming decade. The historical relationship between the S &P 500 forward P.E. ratio and the subsequent 10-year annualized returns show that investors should expect to get zero return in the S &P 500 over the coming decade. They have a chart below. They're like, hey, can we interest you in some private credit opportunities? where... Or you know the other option. What's the other thing you want to invest in when the stock market isn't looking so good?

21:32What? Land. I've talked about this. Land, I think, is the most criminally underrated asset. Nobody wants to make steady returns, land maxing. They want to hit the 1 ,000x. Exactly. Meme coin. They want to hit the 1 % polymarket, whatever it is. Timeline has been in turmoil over Klein. Some posts are getting deleted. So I don't even know if we're going to be able to pull these up. But here's what happened. Yeah, break it down. Somebody at Klein commented on a picture from a hackathon. Yes. And said, imagine the smell. Yes. People thought he was making, they thought it was like a racist comment.

22:09Yes. People started piling on. Yes. The CEO initially defended him and said, I'm like, I know I can vouch for this guy. Yeah. He's fine. People kept piling on. the CEO ended up turning around and said, actually, we've let this guy go. Yeah. And then now the CEO is getting even more hate from letting the guy go. And then now he's deleting the post. And so maybe he ends up rehiring. It feels like damage is pretty done at this point. It'd be hard to imagine him going back and saying, like, oh, I'm actually going to rejoin the team that just didn't go. I have a brief screenshot saved a little bit.

22:52I think I can read it, some of it. This is the CEO of Klein. He says, a few days ago, a tweet from our head of AI offended a lot of people. And it definitely offended a lot of people. There's an article in the Hindustan Times in India. This is newsworthy in India. While I don't believe his original tweet was intended to be offensive, his response, refusing to apologize, does not reflect my position or clients. We recognize this caused real pain and that deserves blah, blah, blah. Lulu says, this stinks. She's not a fan of it. Yeah. She says, re-coms mistakes. Everyone makes them. Sometimes things fall flat.

23:30It's happened to me and it also happens to people much smarter. Yeah. But betraying people or principles is in a different category. It's more preventable and less excusable. Cowardice doesn't happen by accident. In the case of Smellgate, it could be argued that Posh made the first kind of mistake overlooking how the joke could be interpreted. but then the CEO inarguably made the second kind of mistake, and that one to me is much worse. Nat Eliason posted, a friend of the show, I'm not sure if he's in the chat today, said considering the unanimous reaction to the CEO's post saying that they let go of the engineer, Nat says will he fire himself now?

24:08Only seems fair. Certainly. The entire company gets fired. Fireception. Just everyone gets fired? No. The funny thing is that the only reason I know about this joke is from a bunch of Indian friends who seem to have been making it on anonymous accounts years ago in some sort of funny attempt to reclaim the formerly racist joke. Lulu says, when you cave to the mob instead of standing by your employee, now people are more mad at you than before. And she quotes, your worst sin is that you have destroyed and betrayed yourself for nothing. Trump, in an interview yesterday, said that he would consider eliminating taxes on gambling winning.

24:49This is so crazy. Frank says prediction markets be like, never mind, it is gambling. It is gambling. Because they always use trade. It's not bad. You trade. Trade on future events. Trade on sports, trading on this. This just feels like a whole series of people. It's like Trump likes being edgy and funny, making jokes. And he says, I'd consider it. and then watcher guru takes it and turns it into a viral thing. And then somebody dunks on it and they get viral points. And it all feels deeply unserious and not really like it's going to reshape the market anytime soon. Yeah, I think a lot of people would hope that he'd be like, no, we're not going to create tax incentivized gambling in this country.